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Hatsu Basho 2019 Discussion [SPOILERS]

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4 hours ago, wys said:

I would also like to add my two cents here on Takakeisho's ozeki run. As much as I love the guy, I agree with the decision not to promote him. As I mentioned yesterday in my post, he has not performed that well against higher ranked opponents. If we just look at his record against Mitakeumi, Goeido, and Takayasu in the last 3 bashos, he has only won one in nine bouts! I think he needs another basho to give the decision-makers more confidence that he is ozeki material and that he is competitive, or least has the potential to be competitive, against rikishi across the rankings. 

And of course congrats to Tamawashi. His streak of not missing a bout in his career continues to astound me, given the frequency of injuries in the sport. What's his secret?

I think Takakeisho is Ozeki materrial. As we have seen in the 5 last basho's Takakeisho has had above 10 wins in 4 basho's with 9 wins in the 3rd basho and there is only a few rikishi that has done it as Takakeisho.

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18 minutes ago, word20 said:

I think Takakeisho is Ozeki materrial. As we have seen in the 5 last basho's Takakeisho has had above 10 wins in 4 basho's with 9 wins in the 3rd basho and there is only a few rikishi that has done it as Takakeisho.

Again, you can't simply rely on numbers alone. We can use numbers superficially and make a case for anything, but is it a strong case? One has to dig a little deeper and think more critically. No one would put much weight, if any, on his performance as a M10 and as a M3, in making a case for ozeki promotion. For example, as an M10 in May 2018, Takakeisho didn't face anyone above M6 and he lost his matches to rikishi from M9 through M12. Would this be consistent with an ozeki-level performer? Let's move forward to July 2018 where he competed as an M3.  Three of his 5 losses were at the hands of rikishi ranked lower than he was at M4, M6, and M7. Ozeki material? Not really.  And with the last three basho, not wanting to repeat myself, but Takakeisho has not shown that he can consistently challenge the top guys across the board. When he walks in the dohyo against guys like Kakuryu, Goeido, Mitakeumi, or Takayasu (not mentioning Hakuho because he's in a league of his own, even with reported injuries)  I don't have the confidence that Takakeisho can give these guys a run for their money. I don't get the feeling that the bout can swing either way. In fact, I feel with greater than 50% certainty he would lose. I hope the next basho can prove people like me wrong, since he is my fave, but as things stand now, I find it hard to justify an ozeki promotion.

Edited by wys
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9 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Ozeki and Yokozuna promotions are entirely different things. A failed Ozeki can get demoted. A failed yokozuna goes home.

A proverb says : "A man will be terrified by a rope for ten years after being biten by a snake" :-D

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1 hour ago, wys said:

And with the last three basho, not wanting to repeat myself, but Takakeisho has not shown that he can consistently challenge the top guys across the board. When he walks in the dohyo against guys like Kakuryu, Goeido, Mitakeumi, or Takayasu (not mentioning Hakuho because he's in a league of his own, even with reported injuries)  I don't have the confidence that Takakeisho can give these guys a run for their money. I don't get the feeling that the bout can swing either way. In fact, I feel with greater than 50% certainty he would lose. I hope the next basho can prove people like me wrong, since he is my fave, but as things stand now, I find it hard to justify an ozeki promotion.

That can be said for the most Ozeki wannabees, no?  His last two basho results were very impressive, holding more than his own against sanyuku opponents.    And you can't take away yusho & jun-yusho even if with kyujos and intais by top ranks (that's just sumo).    I am not saying TKO deserves to be Ozeki.  I am pointing out why the extra caution?  Lack of experience?  Perhaps.   But to me, he's good enough to be an Ozeki now.

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10 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

That can be said for the most Ozeki wannabees, no?  His last two basho results were very impressive, holding more than his own against sanyuku opponents.    And you can't take away yusho & jun-yusho even if with kyujos and intais by top ranks (that's just sumo).    I am not saying TKO deserves to be Ozeki.  I am pointing out why the extra caution?  Lack of experience?  Perhaps.   But to me, he's good enough to be an Ozeki now.

A better question is what is the rush? After only one tournament as sekiwake, you're telling me that you have enough evidence to confidently say that Takakeisho's sumo is better than sekiwake and is more like an ozeki? And as sekiwake in this tournament, can you really say that his sumo was so overwhelmingly good that he deserves to be promoted right away that the sekiwake rank is really beneath him?  He lost twice to people ranked lower!  I mean, just the fact that people on this forum are having this discussion/debate is anecdotal evidence that, taking everything into consideration, Takakeisho's performance and the quality of his sumo does not overwhelmingly support a promotion and I think that is what it would have to take in order to be promoted to ozeki after only one tournament as sekiwake. If he had beaten both ozekis in this tournament, it would have been a different story, but he didn't and that's how the story goes.

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I think Takayasu won way too lucky against Takakeisho during the last two basho to see him as without trouble. He was decisively beaten by Goeido today, but their record has been a seesaw battle over the last few encounters. Mitakeumi seems to handle him very well, I can't really recall his matches with Kakuryu I admit. Hakuho had lots of problems with him during the last matches. It often looked as if Takakeisho lost because he was overeager. 

I'm actually kind of okay with the kyokai wanting another strong showing, and I'd be happy if he'd be a little stronger at Yotsu. But I think he provides a lot of work for almost everyone in almost every match. Easy losses like the one to Goeido are an exception to the rule. I think it is fine to say he had a good follow up basho to a "maiden-yusho", and if he earns another Double digit score it would be strange to deny him promotion. 

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As long as he's getting the wins I don't feel he should have to show any yotsu abilities. He's clearly very good at what he does with the  powerful thrusting, well timed slap downs and pivots, and overall good balance and dohyo sense. And pretty much no one--even if they have a more diverse skillset or are vastly better on the belt--gets a good grip on him. Look at how he's  dominated Tochinoshin for example...

And I'm very happy to see Hokutofuji set to make his sanyaku debut. He started ozumo in the first tournament I watched and I immediately took to him for his no nonsense style and respectful demeanor. Despite his excellent amateur career and fast climb up the ranks I feel he's always been in the shadows of Ura (started the same basho), some of the other collegiate guys, and now the youngsters like Takakeisho and maybe even Onosho.  He had some luck go his way this tournament, but even more luck go against him when he wasn't promoted with an 11-4 from M3.

Ganbarize Hokutofuji!

Edited by Katooshu
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Congrats to Terutsuyoshi on gaining promotion to Makuuchi in the most Terutsuyoshi-like of ways: losing his last four matches to finish with an 8-7 record. 

Fun Terutsuyoshi fact: in 12 basho Juyro, he's finished with either an 8-7 or 7-8 record in 7 of them!

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2 hours ago, Katooshu said:

As long as he's getting the wins I don't feel he should have to show any yotsu abilities. He's clearly very good at what he does with the  powerful thrusting, well timed slap downs and pivots, and overall good balance and dohyo sense. And pretty much no one--even if they have a more diverse skillset or are vastly better on the belt--gets a good grip on him. Look at how he's  dominated Tochinoshin for example...

And I'm very happy to see Hokutofuji set to make his sanyaku debut. He started ozumo in the first tournament I watched and I immediately took to him for his no nonsense style and respectful demeanor. Despite his excellent amateur career and fast climb up the ranks I feel he's always been in the shadows of Ura (started the same basho), some of the other collegiate guys, and now the youngsters like Takakeisho and maybe even Onosho.  He had some luck go his way this tournament, but even more luck go against him when he wasn't promoted with an 11-4 from M3.

Ganbarize Hokutofuji!

Is it just me or does it feel like Hokutofuji has been around way longer than the other tadpoles even though he’s been around slightly less than Takakeisho? I thought it might his age, but then he’s the same age as Mitakeumi. Actually, I think it’s because he has the grizzled look and demeanour of veteran Kaio already and has that ‘don’t mess with me’ expression on his face all the time. Makes him see older.

Edited by Eikokurai
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48 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Is it just me or does it feel like Hokutofuji has been around way longer than the other tadpoles even though he’s been around slightly less than Takakeisho? I thought it might his age, but then he’s the same age as Mitakeumi. Actually, I think it’s because he has the grizzled look and demeanour of veteran Kaio already and has that ‘don’t mess with me’ expression on his face all the time. Makes him see older.

He has the aura of a veteran, looks like he takes himself very seriously no matter the situation. Young guys tend to have a shaky mentality but he is very centered.

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3 hours ago, wys said:

A better question is what is the rush? After only one tournament as sekiwake, you're telling me that you have enough evidence to confidently say that Takakeisho's sumo is better than sekiwake and is more like an ozeki? And as sekiwake in this tournament, can you really say that his sumo was so overwhelmingly good that he deserves to be promoted right away that the sekiwake rank is really beneath him?  He lost twice to people ranked lower!  I mean, just the fact that people on this forum are having this discussion/debate is anecdotal evidence that, taking everything into consideration, Takakeisho's performance and the quality of his sumo does not overwhelmingly support a promotion and I think that is what it would have to take in order to be promoted to ozeki after only one tournament as sekiwake. If he had beaten both ozekis in this tournament, it would have been a different story, but he didn't and that's how the story goes.

You are putting words in my mouth.  This is a subjective topic and no one can definitively say one way or another.   We can share opinions based on what we saw, and how we interpreted them.  We also have win-loss record to compare TKO's vs the current Ozeki's.   TKO's record stands on his own in the last two basho although he is not yet Ozeki.   Which other Ozeki or Yokozuna for that matter won an yusho & jun-yusho in the last two basho?   No one but TKO.   To put your question the other way, can you definitively say he is not worthy of Ozeki now?  I don't believe you can either.   If you and others reasoning to deny TKO's Ozekihood now is "what is the rush?"  then my answer is "why wait?"     A lot of what you are pointing out can go either way.    Luckily, TKO will prove it to us one way or another in the next basho.    After the next basho, one of us can tell the other "I told you so."   I am hoping it's me. :-)

 

I had a similar discussion with someone on the forum on Yago's non-promotion to Makuuchi as 8-7 J2 two basho ago.   I thought he was ready but NSK and some forum members didn't think so.   Guess what?  Yago proved that I was right and went 10-5 in juryo, and 9-6 in Makuuchi. 

Edited by robnplunder

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1 hour ago, Kaninoyama said:

Congrats to Terutsuyoshi on gaining promotion to Makuuchi in the most Terutsuyoshi-like of ways: losing his last four matches to finish with an 8-7 record. 

Fun Terutsuyoshi fact: in 12 basho Juyro, he's finished with either an 8-7 or 7-8 record in 7 of them!

Reminds me of Sadanoumi. Out of his 25 Makuuchi appearances, he has gone 7-8 or 8-7 15 times.

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Tsurugisho is the current king of 8s and 7s, with 15 of his 19 juryo tournaments ending in 8-7 or 7-8.

For added consistency, when he went 4-11 he followed up next basho with 11-4.

Edited by Katooshu
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5 hours ago, robnplunder said:

You are putting words in my mouth.  This is a subjective topic and no one can definitively say one way or another.   We can share opinions based on what we saw, and how we interpreted them.  We also have win-loss record to compare TKO's vs the current Ozeki's.   TKO's record stands on his own in the last two basho although he is not yet Ozeki.   Which other Ozeki or Yokozuna for that matter won an yusho & jun-yusho in the last two basho?   No one but TKO.   To put your question the other way, can you definitively say he is not worthy of Ozeki now?  I don't believe you can either.   If you and others reasoning to deny TKO's Ozekihood now is "what is the rush?"  then my answer is "why wait?"     A lot of what you are pointing out can go either way.    Luckily, TKO will prove it to us one way or another in the next basho.    After the next basho, one of us can tell the other "I told you so."   I am hoping it's me. :-)

 

I had a similar discussion with someone on the forum on Yago's non-promotion to Makuuchi as 8-7 J2 two basho ago.   I thought he was ready but NSK and some forum members didn't think so.   Guess what?  Yago proved that I was right and went 10-5 in juryo, and 9-6 in Makuuchi. 

Not sure which words I am putting in your mouth and I am not going to belabor this topic. I think I've written enough on this to make clear my reasons to your question, "why wait". Obviously this is a "subjective topic", to a certain degree,. And even if one can't "definitively say" whether he should be promoted or not, given the evidence or lack thereof, one would be more justified in not promoting Takakeisho to ozeki at this moment in time.  The only strong point you make is that he won the yusho and the jun-yusho. But at the end of the day, I am going to go with my gut feelings that I mentioned before: I don't really feel close to being 50% confident that Takakeisho will beat the top ranked guys on any given day as things stand now. 

And even if Takakeisho does well in the next basho and gets a promotion, it doesn't provide any disconfirmatory evidence against the decision to not promote him after this basho. After all, the decision to not promote him is based on the evidence available as of now; one can't be faulted for not considering information that is not available. Having said all this,  I hope Takakeisho kicks ass in the next basho and get his Ozeki promotion.

Edited by wys
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14 hours ago, Philioyamfugi said:

Hard not to like a guy (Tamawashi) 15yrs in sumo having to get beat up by the rest of the Mongolian mob to have his day. New baby and possible Ozeki run plus he likes to bake...what's not to like?   

Yes, Tamawashi does like to bake!  Check him out in the Youtube video with the title "Rikishi With Hobbies".  (Other rikishi in the video are Yoshikaze, Takekaze & Wakanosato).  (Sorry, I don't know how to do links).

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2 minutes ago, sumojoann said:

Yes, Tamawashi does like to bake!  Check him out in the Youtube video with the title "Rikishi With Hobbies".  (Other rikishi in the video are Yoshikaze, Takekaze & Wakanosato).  (Sorry, I don't know how to do links).

Just paste the URL into your post and it will automatically be embedded. Like this:

 

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I've run out of "Thanks" for the day so I'll just say, "Thank you!", Otokonoyama.

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7 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Is it just me or does it feel like Hokutofuji has been around way longer than the other tadpoles even though he’s been around slightly less than Takakeisho?

I don't know if it's just you, but I wouldn't be able to identify him in a police lineup. You say he's in Makuuchi? I probably should review the vids...

Edited by yorikiried by fate

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7 minutes ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I don't know if it's just you, but I wouldn't be able to identify him in a police lineup. You say he's in Makuuchi? I probably should review the vids...

Just look for Kaio's twin and you'll identify him in no time. For me he's one of the most recognisable rikishi in makuuchi - I have more trouble with guys like Onosho and Daieisho. 

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3 hours ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I don't know if it's just you, but I wouldn't be able to identify him in a police lineup. You say he's in Makuuchi? I probably should review the vids...

Hokutofuji is the guy who looks like he has cut in half golf balls implanted on his forehead, clearly visible through his hair. Don't know if it's battle damage from headbutting too much, but kudos to the tokoyama having to work with that.

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20 hours ago, Benihana said:

Hokutofuji is the guy who looks like he has cut in half golf balls implanted on his forehead, clearly visible through his hair. Don't know if it's battle damage from headbutting too much, but kudos to the tokoyama having to work with that.

That may explain his deep vows bows.  His head is a bit heavy.

I like Hokuto and wish him to be an Ozeki someday.

Edited by robnplunder

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4 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

That may explain his deep vows.  His head is a bit heavy.

 

Like "I promise to, really, really, really, REALLY respect you"?

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On 25/01/2019 at 23:54, Kintamayama said:
On 25/01/2019 at 23:49, Amamaniac said:

That is exactly what I thought.  As you will see on page 36 of this thread, I was given certain information from a Japanese friend in Tokyo.  I have already contacted him to ask for his media source.  I will report back if he provides specific information.

From this evening: Ounomatsu: "The basho is still ongoing. I won't say anything until it's over." The feeling among some oyakatas is that his first 9 win basho is not a good enough foundation for a promotion, says the article, without naming names. "Now, if he had back to back yushos, we might have something to talk about," said Fujishima Oyakata.

I promised to get back to you, and so here is the source for my earlier comments about Takakeisho's Ozeki promotion being uncertain: an interview with Onomatsu-oyakata in the Nikkei-shinbun (i.e., probably the same statements that you quoted). 

Better late than never.

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20190127-00000051-jijp-000-view.jpg

Tamawashi chose Kagayaki for his yusho parade... probably thanks to him for stunning Endo on day 7 (see day 7 pics overview)

 

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