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Hatsu Basho 2019 Discussion [SPOILERS]

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2 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

I am under the impression that a Sekiwake winning a yusho automatically puts him on an Ozeki run. Apparently, I am wrong.

No way if he has no good enough records in his two tournaments before yusho

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1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

I think they're basically saying that a 9-win basho doesn't really mean anything more than an 8-win basho - it keeps you in Sanyaku, but that's it.  In Terunofuji's 8-13-12Y, the 8 really didn't count for much other than get him to Sekiwake; they're basically saying the same thing about Takakeisho's 9.  25 wins plus a Yusho in two basho in Sanyaku?  Sure thing.  Everything else not relevant.

So, where did the 33 wins in 3 bashos rule come from?

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4 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

"Now, if he had back to back yushos, we might have something to talk about," said Fujishima Oyakata.

That statement implies to me that certain members of the NSK are keeping their options open, and refusal to promote Takakeisho with 33 wins is a distinct possibility.  In a way, these kinds of statements put pressure on Takakeisho to perform even better, and those who make the statements will look back in hindsight and perhaps try to take credit for spurring Takakeisho on. A part of me wants to see what would happen after a 33-win performance (i.e., promotion or not promotion), but another part of me wants to see Takakesho steal the yusho from Tamawashi... (insert evil laughter here)

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4 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

So, where did the 33 wins in 3 bashos rule come from?

It's a general guideline.  If you're not close to that you won't be considered.  If you fall a little short, you might get in anyway (Kisenosato, Goeido), while just hitting that mark is not always enough if they feel like they want to wait (Baruto).  Baruto answered their "not quite good enough" 12-9-12 non-promotion with a 14-1.

Edited by Gurowake

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5 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

I am under the impression that a Sekiwake winning a yusho automatically puts him on an Ozeki run. Apparently, I am wrong.

You're definitely not wrong.  The run can start with the yusho-win tournament and go from there, or the W/L result in the tournament prior to the yusho-win tournament can be considered in calculations to get a aggregate total of 30+ wins over three consecutive tournaments, ideally 33 wins or more.  Each time a wrestler gets promoted to Ozeki, the papers usually post a chart with previous Ozekis and the numbers that they had secured.  If memory serves, a few may have had only 32 wins over three consecutive tournaments, while others had more than 33.  That's why the T,akakeisho debate is so interesting.

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Just spitballin' here, but imagine the following scenario: S1w Hotsitotsiyama gets a zensho yusho in basho A; injured after 3 wins, he ends basho B at 3-1-11.  From his landing spot at M4w, in basho C he zenso yushos again, 15-0.  From K1e in basho 4 he gets another 15-0.

The NSK tells him "since you won back-to-back yusho, we're almost obliged to make you a Yokozuna ... but your  33 wins (twice) isn't sufficient to make you an Ozeki with that poor showing in basho B."

 

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7 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

That statement implies to me that certain members of the NSK are keeping their options open, and refusal to promote Takakeisho with 33 wins is a distinct possibility.  In a way, these kinds of statements put pressure on Takakeisho to perform even better, and those who make the statements will look back in hindsight and perhaps try to take credit for spurring Takakeisho on. A part of me wants to see what would happen after a 33-win performance (i.e., promotion or not promotion), but another part of me wants to see Takakesho steal the yusho from Tamawashi... (insert evil laughter here)

I can't exactly quote your emphasis of the hypothetical words that Kintamayama quoted, so your response will have to do even though I'm not really directly replying to the content of it.

Keep in mind that the quote was originally in Japanese.  There are various different if-then constructions in Japanese.  I think Kintamayama may have overly emphasized the hypothetical language there.  I'm certain if he wins the Yusho again there will be no real debate.  But they certainly will have more to discuss if it's closer to a borderline case.  I'll emphasize them not rushing promotions with young rikishi.  It's seen at pretty much every level there's actual subjectivity, like Mitakeumi getting passed over for Komusubi by Takayasu for Nagoya 2016, and Terutsuyoshi not being promoted to Makuuchi for this basho.

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22 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

I am under the impression that a Sekiwake winning a yusho automatically puts him on an Ozeki run. Apparently, I am wrong.

I should have written, I am under the impression that a Sekiwake winning a yusho automatically puts him on an Ozeki run for the next basho.

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5 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Just spitballin' here, but imagine the following scenario: S1w Hotsitotsiyama gets a zensho yusho in basho A; injured after 3 wins, he ends basho B at 3-1-11.  From his landing spot at M4w, in basho C he zenso yushos again, 15-0.  From K1e in basho 4 he gets another 15-0.

The NSK tells him "since you won back-to-back yusho, we're almost obliged to make you a Yokozuna ... but your  33 wins (twice) isn't sufficient to make you an Ozeki with that poor showing in basho B."

 

A 15-0 from M4w is pretty much meaningless when it comes to promotion into the upper sanyaku.  Maybe if there were only 4 or less Y/O, but even then, your maegashira opponents would likely be significantly weaker than those in sanyaku and the top few maegashira spots.

Edited by Gurowake

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11 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I can't exactly quote your emphasis of the hypothetical words that Kintamayama quoted, so your response will have to do even though I'm not really directly replying to the content of it.

Keep in mind that the quote was originally in Japanese.  There are various different if-then constructions in Japanese.  I think Kintamayama may have overly emphasized the hypothetical language there.  I'm certain if he wins the Yusho again there will be no real debate.  But they certainly will have more to discuss if it's closer to a borderline case.  I'll emphasize them not rushing promotions with young rikishi.  It's seen at pretty much every level there's actual subjectivity, like Mitakeumi getting passed over for Komusubi by Takayasu for Nagoya 2016, and Terutsuyoshi not being promoted to Makuuchi for this basho.

Frankly, the words I highlighted could be in the statement or not, I still think my interpretation stands.  

Fujishima oyakata is still suggesting that in his mind, back to back yusho could seal the deal.  Anything less may not guarantee it.  In short, his options are open.

Edited by Amamaniac

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2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

A 15-0 from M4w is pretty much meaningless when it comes to promotion into the upper sanyaku.  Maybe if there were only 2 Y/O, but even then, your maegashira opponents would likely be significantly weaker than those in sanyaku and the top few maegashira spots.

Well, I was making only a semi-serious point, to show that the 33-win limit is not a rule, it's a guideline.  Where would one put a rikishi with 3 yushos in 4 basho?

[Incidentally, there is a record of an M6e zensho yusho, with promotion to K1e next basho]

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Why are you still talking about Takakeisho? Tamawashi is the real deal!

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39 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Well, I was making only a semi-serious point, to show that the 33-win limit is not a rule, it's a guideline.  Where would one put a rikishi with 3 yushos in 4 basho?

[Incidentally, there is a record of an M6e zensho yusho, with promotion to K1e next basho]

I raised a similar question after Kyushu as another Takakeisho yusho this time would put us in uncharted territory. Nobody has ever won back-to-back yusho in junior sanyaku (or any rank lower than Ozeki for that matter), so whole new questions would have to be asked of the kyokai. If Takakeisho manages a third championship in Haru, should they promote him to Yokozuna? There’s an argument I subscribe to that one Komusubi yusho plus one Sekiwake yusho should be treated as equal to one Ozeki yusho (at least). They fight basically the same schedules after all. Thus, for me, a K/S/O treble ought to justify a Yokozuna promotion. Whether they think Takakeisho specifically merits that treatment I guess is another question. Context is important to the YDC.

Edited by Eikokurai
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With a 9-6 record last basho, if Tamawashi goes on to win, won't he be essentially in the same position next basho as Takakeisho is now? If TakaK closes out strong and gets promoted, a similar performance by TamaW next basho means we could potentially have two new Ozeki.

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1 hour ago, Tsubame said:

[...] "he is only 22" [...] all the great sumotori were already yokozuna at that age [...]

Chiyonofuji's called and wants his absolutes back.

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2 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

With a 9-6 record last basho, if Tamawashi goes on to win, won't he be essentially in the same position next basho as Takakeisho is now? If TakaK closes out strong and gets promoted, a similar performance by TamaW next basho means we could potentially have two new Ozeki.

Exactly. Let's assume that Takakeisho and Tamawashi both win out. 

Takakeisho     9-6   13-2 Y   12-3 J     34 wins.

Tamawashi     9-6   13-2 Y      ?-?

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19 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

With a 9-6 record last basho, if Tamawashi goes on to win, won't he be essentially in the same position next basho as Takakeisho is now? If TakaK closes out strong and gets promoted, a similar performance by TamaW next basho means we could potentially have two new Ozeki.

Not exactly the same as Tamawashi’s 9-6 was from M2, not sanyaku. But he could be on an Ozeki run, yes.

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2 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

The Mitakeumi v. Takayasu bout will be interesting as well.  Mitakeumi looked pretty battered up after his victory over Ichinojo on day 13.  How then will Takayasu choose to handle him?  He won't want to make the same mistake that Hakuho made (i.e., underestimating the Komusubi), but I also don't think he will want to use a kimarite that may risk injuring Mitakeumi further.  But this will be pay back time for Mitakeumi upsetting him on the last day of the last tournament, when the Ozeki was still in the yusho race...

I still say there is no chance Mitakeumi mounts that doyho again this basho. If he does his Oyakata should resign. He has nothing to fight for. He can't win a yusho and he can't win enough to force a promotion to Sekiwake. If Takakeisho gets promoted it's his anyway even with just 8 wins. If he does I expect a very easy walkout for Takayasu who has to see that match as his best chance for avoiding kadoban.  I think Takayasu already knew Mitakeumi would not be in on Day 14 and Takayasu's KK is in the bag which is why Takayasu put out so little effort in the Goeido match. Takayasu is way off this basho. If Takayasu thought he really needed to win against Goeido he would have fought like it, even if he still lost. 

Just a reminder: it's Day 14. The Day 15 torikumi comes out very late. Mitakeumi can wait till the start of makuuchi to pull out. We won't necessarily hear anything about it till then. 

Edited by Rocks
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2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

From this evening: Ounomatsu: "The basho is still ongoing. I won't say anything until it's over." The feeling among some oyakatas is that his first 9 win basho is not a good enough foundation for a promotion, says the article, without naming names. "Now, if he had back to back yushos, we might have something to talk about," said Fujishima Oyakata.

This is BS if you ask me. Takakeisho will be promoted. He more than has the numbers and has become very popular. This is just them wanting him to keep pushing for wins and make the basho competitive with it looking like Hakuho is going to fade. 

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8 minutes ago, Rocks said:

This is BS if you ask me. Takakeisho will be promoted. He more than has the numbers and has become very popular. This is just them wanting him to keep pushing for wins and make the basho competitive with it looking like Hakuho is going to fade. 

If Terunofuji can get the nod with 8-7, 13-2Y, 12-3J, then a jun-yusho for Takakeisho should be enough, not back-to-back yusho.

Edited by Eikokurai

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11 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

If Terunofuji can get the nod with 8-7, 13-2Y, 12-3J, then a jun-yusho for Takakeisho should be enough, not back-to-back yusho.

Mr Picky says "You switched the Y and J there."

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25 minutes ago, Rocks said:

The Day 15 torikumi comes out very late. Mitakeumi can wait till the start of makuuchi to pull out. We won't necessarily hear anything about it till then. 

Just because the Day 15 torikumi comes out late doesn't mean it's decided on late.  I have no clue when it's decided on, but I think they would still refuse a request to take someone off a torikumi being worked on if they only had a few minutes left before it had to be finalized.  We've seen obviously hasty re-dos of torikumi before, but nothing like what it would take when they're against a hard deadline of getting the rikishi's pieces of paper in order to be shown by the gyoji.  Usually the torikumi comes out well before that point in time.

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2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Now, if he had back to back yushos, we might have something to talk about," said Fujishima Oyakata.

That's the most ridiculous statement I've seen for a while. Suddenly Ozeki promotion will have requirements equal to Yokozuna promotion!? That's a prime example of too many head-first tachiais in the past... 

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Just to drive the final nail into this idea Takakeisho will not be promoted to ozeki with Hakuho going kyujo Takakeisho is now assured of not only beating the Yokozuna but getting at least a jun yusho and having beat the yusho winner with a shot of back to back yushos. 

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