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Hatsu Basho 2019 Discussion [SPOILERS]

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5 minutes ago, Akōgyokuseki said:

For sure. I also think Ikioi needs a new sponsor... maybe a injury and accident at work compensation firm (Laughing...) 

 

Or the national health service. He is their biggest user after all.

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1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

I'm a little miffed at the NSK, since word has come out that they will not promote Takakeisho to Ozeki if he ends up with only 11 wins.  He's at 10, so I want him to win his last two and make it more or less impossible to the NSK to block his Ozeki promotion.

Surely they'll promote him if he gets that 33rd win, he'd deserve it, he is not as popular as Mitakeumi yet but he is young and japanese, Kisenosato just retired and a lot of the top guys are struggling his promotion would do a lot of good imo.

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I'm as mystified as everyone else at Hakuho's losing streak. He doesn't look like he's injured, it's just straight out losses. Makes things incredibly exciting though, it's a 3-way race now.

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S1w Tamawashi (11-2) controls his own destiny. He faces M5e Aoiyama (7-6) on Day 14. Who will he face on Day 15?

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Hakuho may have only ever lost three in a row to Y/O previously, but the three he's lost this time are to rikishi performing at ozeki level (achieving double digit wins in sanyaku is ozeki level sumo IMO). They have been losses that make him look well off his game, though.

I don't remember anyone touting Tamawashi as a yusho winner in 2019, but Tochinoshin, Mitakeumi and Takakeisho all came out of the blue, too, as did Kotoshogiku before them. Tamawashi has been damn near as consistent as Mitakeumi as a sanyaku mainstay over the last couple of years, so maybe we shouldn't be too surprised to see him join the list of rikishi to get a yusho before Takayasu.

Takakeisho is tantalisingly close to securing ozeki promotion, and if Tamawashi wins the yusho he could also be up for it with another convincing showing in March. Shame about that injury to Mitakeumi, forcing him to wait to start his next push...

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4 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

S1w Tamawashi (11-2) controls his own destiny. He faces M5e Aoiyama (7-6) on Day 14. Who will he face on Day 15?

Most probably Ke Myogiryu, the only sanyaku he still did not meet

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7 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

S1w Tamawashi (11-2) controls his own destiny. He faces M5e Aoiyama (7-6) on Day 14. Who will he face on Day 15?

I may have to eat my words but I see Aoiyama giving him a good run for his money tomorrow.

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2 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

I'm a little miffed at the NSK, since word has come out that they will not promote Takakeisho to Ozeki if he ends up with only 11 wins. 

Only thing related to that I've found is Ounomatsu saying "I want [Takakeishou] to show me his sumo in the 2 remaining days". The relevant Mainichi article's headline mentions him being "one win away from the 33 promotion standard". I hope you don't have another source on that... 

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5 minutes ago, Atenzan said:

Only thing related to that I've found is Ounomatsu saying "I want [Takakeishou] to show me his sumo in the 2 remaining days". The relevant Mainichi article's headline mentions him being "one win away from the 33 promotion standard". I hope you don't have another source on that... 

The only thing I have seen is this but this is from when he was 8-3.

https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/sports/246085

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42 minutes ago, Atenzan said:
3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

I'm a little miffed at the NSK, since word has come out that they will not promote Takakeisho to Ozeki if he ends up with only 11 wins. 

Only thing related to that I've found is Ounomatsu saying "I want [Takakeishou] to show me his sumo in the 2 remaining days". The relevant Mainichi article's headline mentions him being "one win away from the 33 promotion standard". I hope you don't have another source on that... 

My source was a Japanese friend in Tokyo who sent me the following missive via e-mail: 

Regarding Takakeisho, Japanese media is saying, or start saying, if he gets Yusho

Or close to it (for example beat Hakuho and 12 wins) maybe Ozeki, however 11 wins

May not be enough (with no clear explanation).

I realise now that I should have fact checked, but I am a trusting person...

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3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Bold call, Morty.  Unfortunately, I don't share your optimism about there being a three-way play-off.  There were a few tournaments in the past (at least, in the last two years) where I've felt we might see a three-way playoff, and it always seems to get sorted out by sanshuraku.  Let's just say I've been bitten.

I am sad to say that Hakuho – as much as I admire him, is on a downward slope.  And frankly, I don't think he has what it will take to make a comeback.  

There is a chance that Tamawashi will lose one of his next two bouts, but I think he is looking strong and will win both; after all, he will be facing lower ranked opponents (admittedly ones that he hasn't dominated in the past - case in point, Aoiyama tomorrow).  I've liked Tamawashi as a Top Division wrestler for several years now, but have been disappointed by his inconsistency.  This tournament, he truly seems to be at the top of his game.

I'm a little miffed at the NSK, since word has come out that they will not promote Takakeisho to Ozeki if he ends up with only 11 wins.  He's at 10, so I want him to win his last two and make it more or less impossible to the NSK to block his Ozeki promotion.

In short, my call is a Tamawashi yusho, 12 wins for Takakeisho (junyusho), and some major soul searching for Hakuho.

Well, you saved me some typing... I've not formery been a Tamawashi fan, but the rest of it is awfully close to my feelings on the final two days. I'm not certain what's up with Hakuhou, but at my own age I see that it could be the many years of sumo are catching up wit the old boy.

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I remember in the summer of 2016, when my buddy and I first fell for sumo (pun intended), someone wrote an article in the Japan Times calling for Hakuho to retire. Fading and past his prime, they seemed to say. Better to go out on top. I'm not sure how many yusho the old boy has managed, but I know the he's won all three of the previous basho that I've attended. He was really fortunate on a couple of the early bouts this tournament, and could easily be minus five. I suspect it's the toe still bothering him, but it seems we may be at a serious changing of the guard. Takakeisho and Mitakeumi look like the guys who may be stepping up, but only time, and bashos, will tell. I like Abi, as well, but he's only got that one winning game plan.

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Is Ura kyujo?  SAdness, regardless. I've had two ACL surgeries myself, so I can relate. He has been my favorite rikishi. Really wanted to see him make sanyaku someday...

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1 hour ago, Thundersnow said:

Is Ura kyujo?

Yes. Ura finished 2-3-2. He is expected to miss several bashos. No one knows how many.

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5 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

I'm a little miffed at the NSK, since word has come out that they will not promote Takakeisho to Ozeki if he ends up with only 11 wins.  He's at 10, so I want him to win his last two and make it more or less impossible to the NSK to block his Ozeki promotion.

If Takakeisho really is Ozeki material, it doesn't matter if he has to wait another basho. And if he isn't, well...

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1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

If Takakeisho really is Ozeki material, it doesn't matter if he has to wait another basho. And if he isn't, well...

True enough.  And I appreciate the fact that Takakeisho is only 22, and there is concern that he may not be ready to assume the responsibility and withstand the pressures of Ozeki-hood.  I also recognise that there are 33 wins and there are 33 wins, and one rikishi's 33 wins may not be the full equivalent of another rikishi's 33 wins.  But I still feel that Takakeisho has worked hard for his 32 thus far.  

Granted Takakeisho's September record is not double digit, but he made up for that in part by winning the yusho in November.  Of course, an argument can be made to withhold promotion to see how he performs in March.  After all, in 1992, Takanohana had 32 wins in the last three tournaments of that year, and just like Takakeisho, the first of the three tournaments had a single digit win record, followed by a yusho result.  His promotion was withheld until he produced 11 wins in the first tournament of 1993.  There was no saying no to 35 wins!

Let's see if Takakeisho's fate is somehow tied to Takanohana's.  ;-)  

Edited by Amamaniac
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49 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

If Takakeisho really is Ozeki material, it doesn't matter if he has to wait another basho. And if he isn't, well...

I disagree. It would be unfair if Takakeisho gets 11 wins, and beats Hakuho, and is not promoted to Ozeki. What if Takakeisho gets injured in Haru and never again gets this chance?

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8 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

I disagree. It would be unfair if Takakeisho gets 11 wins, and beats Hakuho, and is not promoted to Ozeki. What if Takakeisho gets injured in Haru and never again gets this chance?

Or what if he's winning his last bout and some defensive back hits him with his helmet and doesn't get a flag? (Sorry, bad analogy).

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24 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

 And I appreciate the fact that Takakeisho is only 22, and there is concern that he may not be ready to assume the responsibility and withstand the pressures of Ozeki-hood.

I am really puzzled by those statements. Nothing personal, but when I read "he is only 22" there is only one thought in my head: all the great sumotori were already yokozuna at that age and there were no discussion about "not being ready for the responsibilities or pressures" of that rank.

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While most eyes will be on the Tamawashi v. Aoiyama bout (as will mine), the Ichinojo v. Onosho bout has peaked my interest.  Nothing critical here.  Just interesting to see whether Onosho can eke out his KK or whether Ichinojo 1.0 will show up and stave off his MK...

The Mitakeumi v. Takayasu bout will be interesting as well.  Mitakeumi looked pretty battered up after his victory over Ichinojo on day 13.  How then will Takayasu choose to handle him?  He won't want to make the same mistake that Hakuho made (i.e., underestimating the Komusubi), but I also don't think he will want to use a kimarite that may risk injuring Mitakeumi further.  But this will be pay back time for Mitakeumi upsetting him on the last day of the last tournament, when the Ozeki was still in the yusho race...

Edited by Amamaniac

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2 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Where was that said? The only thing I could find was a pre-basho Ounomatsu oyakata saying it wasn't an official Ozeki run. An 11-4 and that win over Hakuhou should seal the deal.

That is exactly what I thought.  As you will see on page 36 of this thread, I was given certain information from a Japanese friend in Tokyo.  I have already contacted him to ask for his media source.  I will report back if he provides specific information.

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2 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

That is exactly what I thought.  As you will see on page 36 of this thread, I was given certain information from a Japanese friend in Tokyo.  I have already contacted him to ask for his media source.  I will report back if he provides specific information.

From this evening: Ounomatsu: "The basho is still ongoing. I won't say anything until it's over." The feeling among some oyakatas is that his first 9 win basho is not a good enough foundation for a promotion, says the article, without naming names. "Now, if he had back to back yushos, we might have something to talk about," said Fujishima Oyakata.

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6 minutes ago, Tsubame said:

I am really puzzled by those statements. Nothing personal, but when I read "he is only 22" there is only one thought in my head: all the great sumotori were already yokozuna at that age and there were no discussion about "not being ready for the responsibilities or pressures" of that rank.

They don't want to give borderline promotions to rikishi that should easily have more chances at promotion because of how young they are.  They clearly will give promotions to those who no doubt deserve them, but they tend to be more cautious with rikishi who have relatively little experience at the top level.  He's got only 13 basho in Makuuchi, 8 in the joi.  He'll get over 30 more basho in the before he hits the age where most rikishi peak.

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I am under the impression that a Sekiwake winning a yusho automatically puts him on an Ozeki run. Apparently, I am wrong.

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7 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

From this evening: Ounomatsu: "The basho is still ongoing. I won't say anything until it's over." The feeling among some oyakatas is that his first 9 win basho is not a good enough foundation for a promotion, says the article, without naming names. "Now, if he had back to back yushos, we might have something to talk about," said Fujishima Oyakata.

I think they're basically saying that a 9-win basho doesn't really mean anything more than an 8-win basho - it keeps you in Sanyaku, but that's it.  In Terunofuji's 8-13-12Y, the 8 really didn't count for much other than get him to Sekiwake; they're basically saying the same thing about Takakeisho's 9.  25 wins plus a Yusho in two basho in Sanyaku?  Sure thing.  Everything else not relevant.

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