Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Kyushu 2018

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36 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

If you aren't sure for GTB, you can always split the difference and take a sure 4 points rather than risk flipping a coin on getting 3 or 6.  You could do this by having Kisenosato Y1E and Kakuryu Y1W.  Hakuho as Y2E and one of the first two would definitely be worth only 1 point, but the other one of the first two would be worth 2.  It's lower expected value though, so probably not a good plan.

I believe there are actually three different options that all work equally well for that gambit (very interesting idea, BTW):

Kise     Kakuryu
Hakuho

Hakuho   Kise
Kakuryu

Kakuryu  Hakuho
Kise

I might even be inclined to use the middle one, in case they argue for something really stupid like "For showing up to compete, Kisenosato deserves to be promoted, but not to Y1e"...

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I was hoping for a playoff.  It would have been nice to have Ozeki and Yokozuna runs, but with all of the Yoks effectively absent this time and Takayasu only facing one other ozeki I'm guessing that the jun-yusho without doten isn't enough for a run?

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First pass at Juryo & upper Makushita

Tamaki might make it in, depending on how exactly they treat a 2-6 with a final win.  It seems like it's worse than a 2-5 most of the time (the times when it's not are when the last match was lost, and so should be the same as a 2-5), but not nearly as bad as halfway between a 1-6 and 2-5.  I guess if you go by %, 2-6 is a lot closer to 2-5 than 1-6.  There's just a lot less data to go by.

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Makuuchi joi doesn't look particularly crowded.  There's a bit of a logjam with Hokutofuji, Shohozan, and Shodai, but the worst it's going to be is 2 rikishi a half-rank below their by-the-numbers place, or maybe Shohozan a full rank off (Hokutofuji a full rank off seems less likely).  Certainly more crowded than last basho, but it's not going to be a 10-5 going up only 2 ranks bad (Aoiyama after Kyushu 2013).

The rest of the banzuke doesn't seem nearly as hard to make as last time as well.  There's a few tricky spots but no real major issues with a lot of people possibly ending up at their by-the-numbers place.

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I'm going with:

Kisenosato Hakuhou

Kakuryuu

Kise for showing up, and then the better records from Aki.

That, or no change at all from the Kyushu banzuke as nothing actually  changed since all three were 0-15 for all intents and purposes.

 

Edited by Kintamayama

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On 24/11/2018 at 10:20, Bumpkin said:

Good question. Nothing would surprise me. This is Japan and Kisenosato is Japanese.

Kisenosato made another worst record by losing 4 consecutive bouts from day-one. It would be ridiculous if he still get promoted ... anyway, agree with you that nothing would surprise me (Laughing...)

Edited by Dapeng

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And to round things up here...

Day 15 (results, text-only results)

13-2 Ke Takakeisho

12-3 O1w Takayasu

11-4 M11w Okinoumi, M12e Aoiyama, M13e Onosho

    kyujo Hakuho        Y1   Kakuryu      kyujo
   0-5-10 Kisenosato    Y2
    8-4-3 Goeido        O1   Takayasu     12-3
                        O2   Tochinoshin   8-7

It's a sports cliché at best and a tautology at worst, but I'll say it anyway - the best man won this month. Surviving a mini-scare against Nishikigi, Takakeisho did come through for his 13th win, and then had to wait for the result of this basho's final bout. And Takayasu-Mitakeumi delivered with a lengthy match, the mid-dohyo stalemate eventually broken by the sekiwake for a sukuinage victory. No playoff opportunity for ozeki Takayasu after all, handing the first-time yusho to Takakeisho in outright fashion.

A rare event indeed, Takakeisho has added his name to a short but illustrious list of rikishi who won the yusho as komusubi, including 3 future yokozuna and 3 later ozeki. (And one of the two who didn't make it, Okitsuumi, had a downright tragic story, dead at 23 from fugu poisoning suffered while celebrating his engagement to his stablemaster's daughter.)

With this achievement Takakeisho has of course also thrown his name into the ring as an ozeki candidate for the near future. Coming off records of 9 and 13 wins, both in sanyaku, he'll be put in position to go for it in January already, although given his relatively lacking track record of success it's hard to judge what they'll be looking for. 12 wins would surely do it, and 11 would complete the usual target of 33-in-3, anything less is almost certainly not enough.

Takayasu for his part ends the year with his third 12-3 jun-yusho record. Excellent results, although it's all starting to look a bit Kisenosato-ish. Not having any superior rikishi in their prime to contend against, he'll hopefully be able to break out of it faster than his stablemate did. The other two ozeki end 2018 on 8-win records, Goeido sitting at home recuperating already, and Tochinoshin after a truly messy losing encounter with Shohozan on senshuraku.

With his hard-fought 7th win Mitakeumi assured himself of a sanyaku berth for Hatsu basho, while Kagayaki of all people finally put an end to Ichinojo's topsy-turvy time in the titled ranks, sending the big Mongolian to a 6-9 finish.

Two sanyaku slots thus available, earlier bouts had served to put Myogiryu and Tamawashi in line to receive them. Myogiryu clinched his kachikoshi with a powerful victory over Chiyotairu in a classic 7-7 meeting, while Tamawashi was defeated by low-ranked Okinoumi but profited from Tochiozan losing to Shodai as well.

A case can be made for Mitakeumi to retain his sekiwake ranking even with his 7-8 record as neither maegashira is an absolute "must" promotion and could easily be placed at komusubi, but I reckon that Tamawashi is seen as a seasoned enough operator to be given the higher-profile role on the next banzuke. Mitakeumi will likely drop down to the East Komusubi spot with Myogiryu filling the West side. 8-7's Tochiozan and Nishikigi will be moving up to slightly higher positions among the maegashira.

Three sansho special prizes were awarded, two of them (the shukun-sho and kanto-sho) to the yusho winner. The third, another kanto-sho, was promised somewhat inexplicably to Onosho on condition of winning his final bout, and he easily did so against Yutakayama in the very first match of the makuuchi torikumi. (That can't have happened too often...)

     7-8  Mitakeumi     S    Ichinojo      6-9  (x)
    13-2  Takakeisho    K    Kaisei       3-9-3 (x)

     8-7  Myogiryu      M1
     8-7  Tochiozan     M2   Tamawashi     9-6
     8-7  Nishikigi     M3

The new banzuke up here looks fairly straight-forward down to about the M4 rank, before things get a little bit crowded and some rikishi will have to be slightly short-changed relative to the nominally expected promotion and demotion moves.


The race between the lower maegashira and the juryo hopefuls was largely settled in favour of the incumbents. Daishoho was defeated by Azumaryu down in juryo, and his 8-7 record at J2e will certainly not be enough to effect any over-demotions among the maegashira. Yutakayama, Chiyonokuni and Daiamami should thus all be able to breathe easily now, despite all-around losses on Day 15. Chiyoshoma was still at risk, but moved himself to safe shores against Abi (who has fallen from 6-2 to 6-9).

The other M14 rikishi Daishomaru wasn't able to follow suit and is now the 4th guy to be demotable - however, given the recent committee trend to favour makekoshi rikishi, he just might be surviving for another basho. Both Kotoeko and Terutsuyoshi were unable to add another win to their tally, and while Kotoeko should be good to go, being top-ranked in the division, I can easily see Terutsuyoshi being passed over; 10-5 at J5w doesn't exactly scream for promotion, especially for a would-be first-timer. The other three demotions are clear, of course - Takanosho (5 losses in last 6 days), kyujo Arawashi and Chiyomaru will be headed to juryo. They're making way for returning Sadogatake duo Kotoyuki and Kotoeko, as well as debutant Yago of Oguruma-beya, who may or may not appear on the new banzuke with a different shikona.

                        M10  Yutakayama    5-10 (o)
(o)  5-10 Chiyonokuni   M11
                        M12
                        M13  Takanosho     4-11 (x)
(o)  7-8  Chiyoshoma    M14  Daishomaru    6-9  (?)
(o)  7-8  Daiamami      M15
(x)1-12-2 Arawashi      M16  Chiyomaru     4-11 (x)

(o) 10-5  Yago          J1   Kotoeko       8-7  (o)
     8-7  Daishoho      J2
(o) 10-5  Kotoyuki      J3
                        J4
                        J5   Terutsuyoshi 10-5  (?)


Makushitan Daiseido appears to have drawn the bad luck card for the second basho running. Having been passed over for promotion unexpectedly in favour of Tomokaze last time, he's now in line for another mere half-rank promotion on his 4-3 record, as there's just no room in juryo after Chiyonoumi clinched his spot at the last minute against Terutsuyoshi in a bout that may have decided two promotion races.

Gokushindo and Chiyonoo closed their Kyushu campaigns with another loss, and they can probably count themselves lucky that there were so few kachikoshi in upper makushita this basho; I wouldn't be too surprised to see them land as high as Ms3, from where a single kachikoshi is a lot more likely to get them straight back to juryo than from Ms4 or Ms5. That being said, at least in Chiyonoo's case I wonder if it's the end of the line after 31 sekitori tournaments. He's only 27, but has been looking rather bad in at least parts of every recent basho (before looking completely bad this time), so it might be the kind of decline that's impossible to reverse. Not to mention that this generation of Kokonoe-beya rikishi has a puzzling tendency to fall apart young...

Going back up to replace them are Gagamaru and Sokokurai, and while I'm expecting the Chinese veteran to be back as a steady sekitori again if, as it appears, he's largely over this year's injuries, I continue to suspect that Gagamaru's career is on borrowed time and the next trip to makushita won't be far off.

(And speaking of careers on borrowed time - Takekaze finishes the basho 6-9 for his 4th straight makekoshi, and 9th MK in his last 11 tournaments.)

                        J9   Chiyonoo      2-13 (x)
                        J10
(o)  6-9  Chiyonoumi    J11
                        J12
                        J13  Gokushindo    4-11 (x)
                        J14

(o)  5-2  Gagamaru      Ms1  Daiseido      4-3
                        Ms2
                        Ms3
                        Ms4
(o)  7-0  Sokokurai     Ms5


To close out the remaining yusho decisions: The spectre of three title playoffs on senshuraku turned into just the one guaranteed, with juryo joining the top division in having an outright winner:

12-3 J14w Tomokaze

11-4 J13e Toyonoshima

10-5 J1e Yago, J3e Kotoyuki, J5w Terutsuyoshi

Toyonoshima did what he had to do and collected win #11 against Kyokutaisei for an impressive return to the sekitori ranks and a possibility to get into a yusho playoff, while Terutsuyoshi wasn't able to follow suit. However, Tomokaze proved too strong in his matchup with pursuer Kotoyuki, so Toyonoshima's effort was for nought. Since the divisional expansions exactly 15 years ago, Tomokaze is the first rikishi to win the juryo yusho from the very last spot in the division.

That left the between-juryo-and-makuuchi stage to the two jonidan rikishi Mitsuuchi and Kotourasaki for their playoff for the jonidan yusho. Kotourasaki clearly came in with a plan and went for the leg grab to ashitori his larger and higher-ranked opponent, but Mitsuuchi recovered just in time to fling down his aite with uwatenage at the edge, winning his second divisional yusho in a row. He'll back in upper sandanme where his injury woes started more than two years ago, and he'll probably have his hands full up there. Kotourasaki should likewise find the low sandanme competition to be tough going.


And with that we're done here, I believe. Juryo promotions and retirements to be announced on Wednesday morning Japan time, as is customary. See ya!

Edited by Asashosakari
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On 26/11/2018 at 13:16, chishafuwaku said:

(Blinking...)

If you saw that, you didn't see the much bigger errors I had originally... (Was fixed to 15 already when you posted, anyway.)


The final results of the ex-sekitori.

new KK: Akua, Seiro, Satoyama, Kitaharima

new MK: Churanoumi, Higonojo, Hitenryu, Yoshiazuma
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out HiRk M# J#
5-2 Ms1e Gagamaru Kise 31 1 K 36 17
4-3 Ms1w Daiseido Kise 25 6 J12   2
3-4 Ms2e Toyohibiki Sakaigawa 34 5 M2 52 14
3-4 Ms3w Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 36 28 M9 6 22
2-5 Ms4w Kagamio Kagamiyama 30 15 M9 7 14
7-0 Y Ms5e Sokokurai Arashio 34 2 M2 25 13
3-4 Ms5w Churanoumi Kise 25 2 J14   1
 
2-5 Ms6w Tokushinho Kise 34 18 J6   27
4-3 Ms8e Akua Tatsunami 28 1 J14   2
4-3 Ms8w Seiro Shikoroyama 30 1 M14 3 29
4-3 intai Ms9w Satoyama Onoe 37 8 M12 6 41
5-2 Ms10e Takayoshitoshi Chiganoura 21 4 J14   1
3-4 Ms10w Kizenryu Kise 33 2 J11   9
1-6 Ms13e Homarefuji Isegahama 33 2 M6 10 28
3-4 Ms14w Higonojo Kise 34 27 J9   4
 
3-4 Ms19w Tenkaiho Onoe 34 15 M8 7 22
5-2 Ms21e Chiyootori Kokonoe 26 6 K 19 16
4-3 Ms22w Dewahayate Dewanoumi 29 14 J9   6
3-4 Ms24e Keitenkai Onomatsu 28 37 J11   1
3-4 Ms26e Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 27 32 J10   4
6-1 Ms28w Fujiazuma Tamanoi 31 10 M4 17 18
4-3 Ms30w Kitaharima Yamahibiki 32 7 M15 1 24
 
3-4 Ms35e Tochihiryu Kasugano 31 5 J7   9
2-5 Ms38e Dairaido Takadagawa 38 73 J2   6
2-5 Ms39w Nionoumi Yamahibiki 31 32 M16 1 12
5-2 Ms41e Sakigake Shibatayama 32 23 J10   5
5-2 Ms45e Asahisho Tomozuna 29 9 M11 4 30
6-1 Ms48e Takaryu Kise 26 20 J13   1
2-5 Ms56w Yamaguchi Miyagino 29 5 M16 1 18
 
0-7 Sd3w Kaonishiki Azumazeki 40 43 J6   2
4-3 Sd18e Masunoyama Chiganoura 28 22 M4 13 12
4-3 Sd25w Asabenkei Takasago 29 3 J7   7
3-4 Sd26e Hitenryu Tatsunami 34 43 J13   2
kyujo Sd27w Terunofuji Isegahama 26 3 O 24 5
kyujo Sd29w Amakaze Oguruma 27 4 M13 1 18
7-0 Y Sd33e Ura Kise 26 5 M4 5 6
3-4 Sd51e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 41 25 M12 3 18
Edited by Asashosakari

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8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

If you saw that, you didn't see the much bigger errors I had originally... (Was fixed to 15 already when you posted, anyway.)

(Iamnotworthy...)  sorry for any inconvenience (Showingrespect...)

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Find it hard to see the fairness in not demoting Daishomaru in exchange for Terutsuyoshi. 

Edited by lackmaker

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5 minutes ago, Thundersnow said:

Ura? Any predictions on where he may fall into place on the next banzuke? I'd love to see our boy yusho his way back up to Makuuchi.

Low, tending to middle makushita next basho. If he can continue like that (6-1, 7-0Y since returning), we'll see him in juryo on may banzuke.

Edited by Benihana

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7 minutes ago, Thundersnow said:

Ura? Any predictions on where he may fall into place on the next banzuke? I'd love to see our boy yusho his way back up to Makuuchi.

Around Ms23-24 most probably. He will need at the very least three basho (two makushita and one juryo), most probably around 5 bashos injury-free and with his former level I'd say

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10 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

That being said, at least in Chiyonoo's case I wonder if it's the end of the line after 31 sekitori tournaments. He's only 27, but has been looking rather bad in at least parts of every recent basho (before looking completely bad this time), so it might be the kind of decline that's impossible to reverse. Not to mention that this generation of Kokonoe-beya rikishi has a puzzling tendency to fall apart young...

Not just looking bad.  It's very rare that I have 6 wins guessed in Oracle for a Juryo regular, but Chiyonoo qualified for it this basho, so he's clearly been historically much worse than typical in results.  (Last Juryo rikishi before that I recall guessing 6 wins for was Akua, who clearly is nothing close to a juryo regular and it more typical of who would get 6 wins guessed.)

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Regarding Kisenosato and whether he will be given "credit" for showing up even though he lost all his matches:

This (a lower-ranked yokozuna shows up and doesn't win any matches while a higher ranked yokozuna doesn't show up at all) has happened 4 times from the 1900's to today, but it has not happened in a long time, the last time was May 1954.

They have NOT been consistent with how they handle it, so there's no precedent or seemingly any way to predict what they will do. Of those 4 times, the yokozuna who showed up seemed to get "credit" twice (May 1953, May 1918), and did not twice (May 1954, May 1948).

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Kise was partial or full kyujo in the last 9 out 10 bashos.   The fat lady is getting ready to sing.   

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On 26/11/2018 at 17:18, Thundersnow said:

Ura? Any predictions on where he may fall into place on the next banzuke? I'd love to see our boy yusho his way back up to Makuuchi.

East 33

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5 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Kise was partial or full kyujo in the last 9 out 10 bashos.   The fat lady is getting ready to sing.   

I wish I could sit out of my job with such regularity and get paid handsomely for it.

Officially, I mean. I frequently go kyujo from my desk without telling anyone.

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13 hours ago, Rigel said:

They have NOT been consistent with how they handle it, so there's no precedent or seemingly any way to predict what they will do. Of those 4 times, the yokozuna who showed up seemed to get "credit" twice (May 1953, May 1918), and did not twice (May 1954, May 1948).

1948 and 1954 certainly don't "count" - the yokozuna's sole loss was by fusenpai in both cases, so he wasn't any more active in the basho than the 0-0-11/15 guy.

The 1918 case cannot serve as precedent since the banzuke sides were handled separately in those days - there's nothing to be said about how they viewed Otori in relation to Onishiki there. Onishiki was Y2e on the next banzuke merely because he fell behind Tochigiyama.

Edited by Asashosakari

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7 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

I wish I could sit out of my job with such regularity and get paid handsomely for it.

Officially, I mean. I frequently go kyujo from my desk without telling anyone.

Ideally, a fat payment and a slim body. Many people get the opposite: a fat body and a slim payment. However, sekitori rikishi get a fat body and a fat payment. (Laughing...)

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2 hours ago, Dapeng said:

Ideally, a fat payment and a slim body. Many people get the opposite: a fat body and a slim payment. However, sekitori rikishi get a fat body and a fat payment. (Laughing...)

I didn't know that they pay sekitori by weight.   Enho needs to gain some weight.   He's leaving a lot of yen on dohyo.  I know a place where one can double their weight with special diet.  That's D-I-E with t at the end. :-D

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On ‎24‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 22:35, Yubinhaad said:

I think it's very rare indeed, in fact you might have the answer there already with 1984 Natsu. I have a bit more checking to do (tomorrow hopefully), but so far I haven't found any later cases of a Makushita rikishi fighting an 8th bout on Day 14. In recent times it's been Jonokuchi rikishi who fight the 8th bout on Day 14 - since 2000 only two (out of 40) have fought their extra bout on Senshuraku, Koseki in 2003 Haru and Ishiharayama in 2013 Aki.


Well the tomorrow I envisioned clearly ran late, but to complete that: out of 75 extra bouts fought by a Makushita rikishi, only 5 took place on Day 14. Banryunada in 1963 Hatsu, Akashiumi in 1964 Kyushu, then the double duty by Hakusan and Sanofuji in 1984 Natsu, and finally Tamaki this basho. So yes, very rare.

It was more fluid down in Jonokuchi from the late 60s (when hoshitori data becomes available) until the turn of the century. 28 extra bouts were fought on Day 14, and 41 more on senshuraku. And then as I mentioned previously, for whatever reason after that there was an almost total change, with most extra bouts since 2000 taking place on Day 14.

There's also an extraordinary case in Jonidan in 1972 Haru. This was during an odd period where some young rikishi only competed in Tokyo basho and for only a few bouts (I know I've read about that here, but I can't think of how to search for it). Perhaps that's why they had to go up the ranks to find Wakamaeda for an extra bout.

 

And since I'm in the thread, a note about Jonokuchi yusho winner Hatooka. He suffered a torn patellar tendon during keiko in December 2017 and had surgery to repair it. After missing four complete basho, he was able to fight one bout in September to stay on the banzuke, and this basho made a full return to win the yusho. He's found plenty of comradeship and inspiration in Kise-beya, with stablemates Ura, Shuji and Jokoryu also having suffered lengthy injury breaks but also making successful comebacks.

 

On ‎25‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 05:17, Gurowake said:

What would really be interesting is if there was ever someone to have an eighth match in both Jonokuchi and Makushita. 


I'm also waiting for that to happen, but so far of the ten to have done it twice, it's been five in Makushita, five in Jonokuchi.

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1 hour ago, Yubinhaad said:

There's also an extraordinary case in Jonidan in 1972 Haru. This was during an odd period where some young rikishi only competed in Tokyo basho and for only a few bouts (I know I've read about that here, but I can't think of how to search for it).

Right, that was after the government mandated completion of middle school as a minimum educational requirement for joining ozumo. The kids who were already in heya had to go back to school and so only got bouts scheduled for Tokyo Sundays until they graduated.

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