GTB 9-shoe 2018- Invitation to play and results

[Kintamayama 45,345]

Exterior. Vast Japanese garden. Very quiet and peaceful. Two people are seated on the edge of a small bridge over a vast pond, bare feet in the water, next to a table with a sake bottle and two sake cups . They are wearing traditional Japanese garb and each is smoking a pipe. The discussion is in Japanese but I have translated it to English.

Takanohana: "So that's that, huh?"

Harumafuji: "It is what it is."

T: "You do see the irony of all this, do you not?"

Harumafuji sighs deeply and loudly: "Irony? If you wouldn't have gone to the police back then, we wouldn't be sitting here now, the both of us. You do realize that, yes? No irony there."

Takanohana takes a long, deep, puff from his extra long pipe. "Then I wouldn't have been true to myself  and my scarves."

H: "We both know that this has happened many times in the past and was always kept in the family.."

T: "Yes, we do." An owl does a Kotoyuuki impression nearby. Takanohana smiles.

H: "And yet, you did it and ruined both our careers.."

T: "Ruined? More like saved."

H: "Saved?? How do you figure?"

T: "How many more active years do you think you had with all your injuries? One year, maybe two, of constantly treating injuries, sitting out bashos, dealing with the vocal calls to retire.. I saved you from all that and helped you retire more or less in your prime. Do you not see that?"

H: "No." A salmon swims upstream in the vast pond, brushing Takanohana's left foot, startling him.

T: "And me? I wanted to become rijicho and change things, but we both know everybody hates me and is envious of my immense popularity with the general public and sooner or later they would have found a reason to get rid of me. Now, we are still young and can find something else to do. You should be thanking me, sir."

H: "If anything, I should be thanking Takanoiwa. Still, it's all water under the bridge," he says, while looking at the water under the bridge.  "Now what?"

Takanohana takes a small sip from the sake. "You go back to Mongolia and do charity stuff, and I write that book."

Harumafuji: "In the meantime?"

Takanohana: "Well, for starters, we can invite sumo fans to play GTB.."

Harumafuji: "I have a sudden craving for mutton with yogurt."

 

This is an invitation to play GTB (Guess the Banzuke), the only sumo game played between basho come what May. Or July. Or November.

Rules: Guess the Banzuke. Simple. You get two points for a bulls-eye and one point for just getting the rank right. You get no points for saying "I'm going to miss these guys.."

Tiebreakers - Most total guesses, then, we check the banzuke backwards - getting the lower half right will be important.  The most correct guesses in the last ten places will win the tiebreaker. If still tied , we go up a ranking at a time like a penalty shootout. It's up to you to check if you are on the list of entries. It's going to be your fault if you don't notice that your entry went missing in the Internet void. No late entries will be expected or accepted.

For rules, standings and free samples:
http://www.dichne.com/Guess.htm

For the nifty entry form:
http://sumodb.sumoga...b/GTBEntry.aspx

For the "new" archives:
http://sumodb.sumoga...gtbarchive.aspx

Free online live sumo for foreign sumo fans as well!!
http://inyourdreams-suckers.tv

Deadline- MONDAY, October 22nd, 2018  at 18:00 GMT ("Great Move.Takanohana!"") - PLEASE NOTE-THIS IS ONE WEEK BEFORE THE OFFICIAL BANZUKE ANNOUNCEMENT !!

NEW!!! The Awesome GTB Helper, conceived by Tsuchinoninjin -  makes making an entry a piece of cake!!

Special thanks to Andoreasu who runs it, Doitsuyama who automates and maintains it  and to early retirement, if you can afford it.

Edited October 29, 2018 by Kintamayama

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,275]

Helper is updated -> http://sumoninjin.droppages.com/sumoHBcustom.html

[Asashosakari 19,500]

And so is the Google docs option.

[RaeucherLax 289]

It took me three evenings to come up with a Banzuke this time.
But somehow I've got a feeling that it would've been better for my own position on the GTB banzuke if I'd have asked for a Kosho 

Edited October 16, 2018 by RaeucherLax
clumsiness

[Bumpkin 438]

I'm in. Massive over promotions followed by massive over demotions. That's GUESS THE BANZUKE.

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

9 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

I'm in. Massive over promotions followed by massive over demotions. That's GUESS THE BANZUKE.

Hmmm...every time I have tried to get on the site the last couple of days it has been down. I must just be unlucky. Will keep trying!

[Andonishiki 170]

still down :(

[Suwihuto 127]

That was an interesting one to put together. 6-9 at best.

[Kintamayama 45,345]

The entry page is up, who knows for how long, so get the entries in NOW- less than 48 hours to go. 57 entries in, small number. I agree this one is going to be all over the place. I am steaking that we will have a first time winner this time.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBEntry.aspx

Edited October 21, 2018 by Kintamayama

[kuroimori 1,634]

Done! Just submitted my entry. It was another tough one indeed - like always.

Hopefully, being super busy and having no time at all to work on this GTB entry will yield a better than expected result.

I guess the banzuke it is not just me who often gets the feeling that the more time and effort you put in your GTB entry, the lower your score will be.

Murphy's GTB Law No.1

 

Edited October 22, 2018 by kuroimori

[Ganzohnesushi 522]

I'm in. There is hope for a 11-4 or more. But it also might be a terrible 3-12...

73 entries now. 215 more minutes to go...

Ganzohnesushi

[Kawabata 270]

On 20/10/2018 at 20:54, Kintamayama said:

this one is going to be all over the place

So glad I started playing this game just in time for this one 

I have absolutely no idea, so hopefully my collection of best guesses isn't a complete disaster (pretty sure I got Y1E right...)

And also that it submitted in time....

[Rocks 1,809]

I'm in. What a nightmare. I would not be surprised if I didn't break 40 points.

 

Man, I messed up the order of the Yokozuna. I redid it. I hope it got in under the deadline.

Edited October 22, 2018 by Rocks

[Kintamayama 45,345]

81 entries. Excellent.

[Asashosakari 19,500]

And closed with 82 entries.

This could be anything from yusho to double-digit makekoshi:

Hakuho (Y1w 15-0 Y)      Y1   Kakuryu (Y1e 10-5)
Kisenosato (Y2e 10-5)    Y2   ---
Goeido (O1e 12-3)        O1   Takayasu (O1w 11-4)
---                      O2   Tochinoshin (O2w 9-6)
Mitakeumi (Se 9-6)       S    Ichinojo (Sw 8-7)
Takakeisho (Kw 9-6)      K    Kaisei (M1w 8-7)

Myogiryu (M5e 8-7)       M1   Hokutofuji (M9e 9-6)
Tochiozan (M7w 8-7)      M2   Nishikigi (M12w 10-5)
Ryuden (M13e 10-5)       M3   Yoshikaze (M15w 11-4)
Takanoiwa (M13w 10-5)    M4   Tamawashi (Ke 4-11)
Shodai (M3e 6-9)         M5   Chiyotairyu (M2w 5-10)
Asanoyama (M5w 7-8)      M6   Kagayaki (M6e 7-8)
Abi (M4w 6-9)            M7   Daieisho (M10w 8-7)
Shohozan (M7e 7-8)       M8   Sadanoumi (M11e 8-7)
Takarafuji (M8e 7-8)     M9   Kotoshogiku (M8w 7-8)
Ikioi (M1e 3-12)         M10  Okinoumi (M12e 8-7)
Yutakayama (M2e 3-10-2)  M11  Chiyonokuni (M4e 4-11)
Aoiyama (M10e 7-8)       M12  Endo (M3w 3-12)
Takanosho (M14e 8-7)     M13  Onosho (M6w 4-11)
Chiyoshoma (M15e 8-7)    M14  Daishomaru (M9w 5-10)
Daiamami (J4e 11-4)      M15  Meisei (J2e 9-6)
Arawashi (J1e 8-7)       M16  Chiyomaru (M14w 6-9)

I thought I'd do more late revising, but that's almost exactly my initial draft, just Tamawashi and Shodai got switched before submitting. Can't quite decide if that was due to high confidence in this version, or low confidence in finding a better alternative.

Anyway, I did go with Chiyomaru over Yago for the last spot, mostly because I just can't imagine that they've given lucky promotions to both Oguruma guys (Yago and Tomokaze).

[chishafuwaku 476]

26 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Hakuho (Y1w 15-0 Y)      Y1   Kakuryu (Y1e 10-5)
Kisenosato (Y2e 10-5)    Y2   ---
Goeido (O1e 12-3)        O1   Takayasu (O1w 11-4)
---                      O2   Tochinoshin (O2w 9-6)
Mitakeumi (Se 9-6)       S    Ichinojo (Sw 8-7)
Takakeisho (Kw 9-6)      K    Kaisei (M1w 8-7)

Myogiryu (M5e 8-7)       M1   Hokutofuji (M9e 9-6)
Tochiozan (M7w 8-7)      M2   Nishikigi (M12w 10-5) -1
Ryuden (M13e 10-5)-1      M3   Yoshikaze (M15w 11-4) -1
Takanoiwa (M13w 10-5) -1    M4   Tamawashi (Ke 4-11) +4
Shodai (M3e 6-9)         M5   Chiyotairyu (M2w 5-10)
Asanoyama (M5w 7-8)      M6   Kagayaki (M6e 7-8) -1
Abi (M4w 6-9) +1           M7   Daieisho (M10w 8-7) -4
Shohozan (M7e 7-8)       M8   Sadanoumi (M11e 8-7) -4
Takarafuji (M8e 7-8)     M9   Kotoshogiku (M8w 7-8) -1
Ikioi (M1e 3-12) +5        M10  Okinoumi (M12e 8-7) -1
Yutakayama (M2e 3-10-2) +5 M11  Chiyonokuni (M4e 4-11) -1
Aoiyama (M10e 7-8) +1       M12  Endo (M3w 3-12)
Takanosho (M14e 8-7)     M13  Onosho (M6w 4-11)
Chiyoshoma (M15e 8-7)    M14  Daishomaru (M9w 5-10) -1
Daiamami (J4e 11-4) +1     M15  Meisei (J2e 9-6)
Arawashi (J1e 8-7)       M16  Chiyomaru (M14w 6-9)

Probably my choice in relation to Tamawashi / Ikioi / Yutakayama will cost me dearly and my boat is going to sink quickly

 

[Asashosakari 19,500]

6 absent players among the top 60 of the GTB ranking this time: It's a first-time absence for #16 Kotononami, #20 Tsuchinoninjin and #43 Kamogawa, so they'll get to keep their current points totals. Another trio are missing for the second straight edition, those being #25 Shimanoumi, #35 Shokikogi and #40 Momijibasi - all three will be dropping to around 65th place, Shimanoumi taking the harshest drop as his shiny new zero-pointer also happens to replace his strongest score (yusho in Natsu 2017).

#19 Gooner and #52 Tiger Tanaka are back in action after taking kosho last basho.

The provisional post-Kyushu ranking - current pre-Kyushu standings in brackets. The list includes all top 20 both pre and post:

 1 Feginowaka      4.453  ( 2 / 5.596)
 2 Asashosakari    4.409  ( 1 / 5.655)
 3 Okisuruga       4.334  ( 3 / 5.563)
 4 Chiyonosawa     4.178  ( 4 / 5.284)
 5 Pandaazuma      4.062  ( 5 / 5.187)
 6 Seki Haruaki    4.060  ( 8 / 5.140)
 7 Flohru          4.034  ( 6 / 5.151)
 8 Tenshinhan      4.031  ( 9 / 5.117)
 9 Chishafuwaku    4.003  (10 / 5.107)
10 Gurowake        3.967  ( 7 / 5.148)
11 Ganzohnesushi   3.954  (12 / 5.030)
12 Andonishiki     3.933  (11 / 5.033)
13 Heriokuno       3.905  (15 / 4.926)
14 Gooner          3.874  (19 / 4.903)
15 Kotononami      3.871  (16 / 4.916)
16 Kaiowaka        3.857  (14 / 4.945)
17 Toyama          3.852  (23 / 4.865)
18 Susanoo         3.843  (18 / 4.906)
19 Jakusotsu       3.839  (13 / 4.960)
20 RaeucherLax     3.839  (24 / 4.854)
..
21 Yubinhaad       3.822  (17 / 4.909)
23 Tsuchinoninjin  3.801  (20 / 4.886)

At least provisionally the #1 spot has already changed hands again - Feginowaka is fortunate to be getting rid of his worst counted score, while Asashosakari is defending his third-best result (a low-scoring yusho last November). Of course, their discounted difference of 0.044 ranking points amounts to only 2 or 3 in-game points, and recent leader Okisuruga also needs to make up just 6 to 7 points, so all three perennial contenders are well in the race once more.

Other players are unlikely to have a shot at the top spot this time, with Chiyonosawa needing at least +12 and everybody from Pandaazuma down even +16 and more. Then again, we saw a come-from-behind change of the lead just two months ago, and the tricky banzuke this time does offer the potential for very high scoring variance.

Not much significant movement in the ranking up to here; even Gooner's virtual improvement of 5 spots equates to less than 0.050 points. A sizable gap does exist in the latest official standings between 10th and 11th place (0.074 points), and as can be seen above nobody has managed to cross that particular divide just by the dropoff of their oldest scores - the incoming top 10 constitute the provisional new top 10 as well, although there's no gap to those outside now.
 

Edited October 23, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Kotononami 86]

Sadly I completely forgot to play this time. A sign of my progressive disinterest for the games in the recent years.

I’m sure other veteran players feel the same sometimes.

Edited October 24, 2018 by Kotononami

[Suwihuto 127]

On 22/10/2018 at 23:45, Asashosakari said:

And closed with 82 entries.

This could be anything from yusho to double-digit makekoshi:

Hakuho (Y1w 15-0 Y)      Y1   Kakuryu (Y1e 10-5)
Kisenosato (Y2e 10-5)    Y2   ---
Goeido (O1e 12-3)        O1   Takayasu (O1w 11-4)
---                      O2   Tochinoshin (O2w 9-6)
Mitakeumi (Se 9-6)       S    Ichinojo (Sw 8-7)
Takakeisho (Kw 9-6)      K    Kaisei (M1w 8-7)

Myogiryu (M5e 8-7)       M1   Hokutofuji (M9e 9-6)
Tochiozan (M7w 8-7)      M2   Nishikigi (M12w 10-5)
Ryuden (M13e 10-5)       M3   Yoshikaze (M15w 11-4)
Takanoiwa (M13w 10-5)    M4   Tamawashi (Ke 4-11)
Shodai (M3e 6-9)         M5   Chiyotairyu (M2w 5-10)
Asanoyama (M5w 7-8)      M6   Kagayaki (M6e 7-8)
Abi (M4w 6-9)            M7   Daieisho (M10w 8-7)
Shohozan (M7e 7-8)       M8   Sadanoumi (M11e 8-7)
Takarafuji (M8e 7-8)     M9   Kotoshogiku (M8w 7-8)
Ikioi (M1e 3-12)         M10  Okinoumi (M12e 8-7)
Yutakayama (M2e 3-10-2)  M11  Chiyonokuni (M4e 4-11)
Aoiyama (M10e 7-8)       M12  Endo (M3w 3-12)
Takanosho (M14e 8-7)     M13  Onosho (M6w 4-11)
Chiyoshoma (M15e 8-7)    M14  Daishomaru (M9w 5-10)
Daiamami (J4e 11-4)      M15  Meisei (J2e 9-6)
Arawashi (J1e 8-7)       M16  Chiyomaru (M14w 6-9)

I thought I'd do more late revising, but that's almost exactly my initial draft, just Tamawashi and Shodai got switched before submitting. Can't quite decide if that was due to high confidence in this version, or low confidence in finding a better alternative.

Anyway, I did go with Chiyomaru over Yago for the last spot, mostly because I just can't imagine that they've given lucky promotions to both Oguruma guys (Yago and Tomokaze).

I fully agree with you on M10 and M16. One of us will not score well, and I think I know who it is...

[Fujisan 533]

4 hours ago, Kotononami said:

Sadly I completely forgot to play this time. A sign of my progressive disinterest for the games in the recent years.

I’m sure other veteran players feel the same sometimes.

Not me...

[Feginowaka 53]

On ‎23‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 07:57, Asashosakari said:

...

The provisional post-Kyushu ranking - current pre-Kyushu standings in brackets. The list includes all top 20 both pre and post:

 1 Feginowaka      4.453  ( 2 / 5.596)
 2 Asashosakari    4.409  ( 1 / 5.655)
 3 Okisuruga       4.334  ( 3 / 5.563)
 ...

At least provisionally the #1 spot has already changed hands again - Feginowaka is fortunate to be getting rid of his worst counted score, while Asashosakari is defending his third-best result (a low-scoring yusho last November). Of course, their discounted difference of 0.044 ranking points amounts to only 2 or 3 in-game points, and recent leader Okisuruga also needs to make up just 6 to 7 points, so all three perennial contenders are well in the race once more.

 

I always like these postings with the provisional rankings.
It's amazing that Okisuruga is "only" #3 with his (or her?, anybody knows who he/she is?) recent results.
7 consecutive Top 10 Basho must be a record, is there such a list?
I thought my 5 Top10 GTB's this year are great, but 7 consecutive Top10's are Incredible.

Good luck to all for the Kyushu GTB!
My guess for the winner: 67 points

[Asashosakari 19,500]

52 points for me - anything scored between M3 and M11 is purely incidental, so I don't expect this total to be good for much in the standings.

[kuroimori 1,634]

48 points, according to a quick calculation. 

Strange Scoring Sandwich: No miss till Tochiozan and also from M14e-M16w

and a nasty mess in between. 

[fwuzzle23 66]

53 by my count. Top half of maegashira was a disaster (5 points scored in M1-8...) but I managed to get M9-16 perfect with the exception of switching Chiyoshoma and Daiamami.

[Gurowake 4,088]

I totally forgot about the banzuke coming out - it's been a busy month and a half at work.

So I guess 62 is pretty good?  Assuming my spreadsheet is what I submitted...

Edited October 28, 2018 by Gurowake