Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2018

[serge_gva 52]

I think Yago will be promoted and Chiyomaru demoted. If I'm not mistaken, the last three basho where we had both a M14 rikishi with 6 wins & a J2 (or more) rikishi with 8 wins, the J2 rikishi was promoted (Haru 2014, Hatsu 2017, Kyushu 2017).

Edited September 25, 2018 by serge_gva

[robnplunder 975]

14 hours ago, serge_gva said:

I think Yago will be promoted 

I hope so.  I think he will do well in Makuuchi.

[Katooshu 3,265]

He's a big guy who is powerful vs juryo opposition, but he also looks pretty slow and basic. And tactically he seems to slip up quite a bit--for example vs Daiamami abandoning a pushing match he was clearly making headway in, in order to go with an awful pulldown that took him halfway across the dohyo and out first. At this stage my prediction would be that he eventually becomes a makuuchi regular (which is a good accomplishment) but never really shines there.

I would prefer that he go up and Chiyomaru go down, just to freshen things up a bit.

Edited September 25, 2018 by Katooshu

[Jakusotsu 5,995]

I wonder if Chiyomaru's withdrawal on the final day instead of a regular loss will make any difference.

[Asashosakari 19,500]

12 hours ago, Katooshu said:

He's a big guy who is powerful vs juryo opposition, but he also looks pretty slow and basic. And tactically he seems to slip up quite a bit--for example vs Daiamami abandoning a pushing match he was clearly making headway in, in order to go with an awful pulldown that took him halfway across the dohyo and out first. At this stage my prediction would be that he eventually becomes a makuuchi regular (which is a good accomplishment) but never really shines there.

Yeah, pretty much my thoughts, too. He'll presumably continue to improve, but at this point I'm still finding it rather difficult to square my general impression of Yago's sumo with the idea of him as a makuuchi rikishi.

[Asashosakari 19,500]

Still to be added, the final Aki basho results of the former sekitori. In the last round of matches:

new KK: Tokushinho

new MK: Higonojo, Tenkaiho, Dewahayate, Fujiazuma, Kitaharima, Yamaguchi, Hitenryu

That didn't go so well.
 

Record	Rank	Shikona	Heya	Age	Out	HiRk	M#	J#
2-5	Ms1e	Kizenryu	Kise	33	1	J11		9
6-1	Ms1w	Toyonoshima	Tokitsukaze	35	12	S	68	6
4-3	Ms2e	Daiseido	Kise	25	5	J12		2
3-4	Ms2w	Churanoumi	Kise	25	1	J14		1
4-3	Ms3e	Toyohibiki	Sakaigawa	33	4	M2	52	14
3-4	Ms6w	Homarefuji	Isegahama	33	1	M6	10	28
3-4	Ms7w	Higonojo	Kise	33	26	J9		4
4-3	Ms9e	Sokokurai	Arashio	34	1	M2	25	13
2-5	Ms9w	Keitenkai	Onomatsu	28	36	J11		1
4-3	Ms10e	Tokushinho	Kise	34	17	J6		27
2-5	Ms10w	Chiyoarashi	Kokonoe	27	31	J10		4
5-2	Ms11e	Sagatsukasa	Irumagawa	36	27	M9	6	22
3-4	Ms11w	Tenkaiho	Onoe	33	14	M8	7	22
5-2	Ms12e	Kagamio	Kagamiyama	30	14	M9	7	14
3-4	Ms14e	Dewahayate	Dewanoumi	29	13	J9		6
2-5	Ms17w	Tochihiryu	Kasugano	31	4	J7		9
1-6	Ms19e	Nionoumi	Yamahibiki	31	31	M16	1	12
3-4	Ms19w	Fujiazuma	Tamanoi	31	9	M4	17	18
3-4	Ms20w	Kitaharima	Yamahibiki	32	6	M15	1	24
5-2	Ms21e	Satoyama	Onoe	37	7	M12	6	41
5-2	Ms21w	Takayoshitoshi	Takanohana	21	3	J14		1
4-3	Ms25e	Chiyootori	Kokonoe	25	5	K	19	16
2-5	Ms29e	Asahisho	Tomozuna	29	8	M11	4	30
3-4	Ms38e	Takaryu	Kise	26	19	J13		1
kyujo	Ms45e	Asabenkei	Takasago	29	2	J7		7
3-4	Ms46e	Yamaguchi	Miyagino	29	4	M16	1	18
kyujo	Ms47e	Terunofuji	Isegahama	26	2	O	24	5
kyujo	Ms49e	Amakaze	Oguruma	27	3	M13	1	18
5-2	Ms58e	Sakigake	Shibatayama	32	22	J10		5
3-4	Sd15e	Hitenryu	Tatsunami	34	42	J13		2
6-1	Sd17w	Dairaido	Takadagawa	38	72	J2		6
3-4	Sd42w	Yoshiazuma	Tamanoi	41	24	M12	3	18
6-1	Sd55e	Kaonishiki	Azumazeki	40	42	J6		2
6-1	Sd74e	Masunoyama	Chiganoura	27	21	M4	13	12
6-1	Sd91e	Ura	Kise	26	4	M4	5	6

After last basho's very strong showings, a lot of these guys returned to earth again, so fewer than half kachikoshi this time. The 6-1's by Kaonishiki and Dairaido have to rate as surprises, the latter will be moving up to his highest rank in two and a half years.

Among last basho's four juryo demotees only Sokokurai was able to achieve kachikoshi, and he might sneak into the top 5 ranks for Kyushu to have a shot at returning. Toyonoshima will be back after two years as mentioned during the basho updates, while we now know today that Daiseido has surprisingly been passed over for a promotion.

Only 4-3 for Chiyootori - it's still the right direction, but one would arguably expect to see more from a top division (or even juryo) quality rikishi on the way back up. On the other hand there's Sagatsukasa whose 5-2 should see him ranked in the top 5 for the first time in over four years. He'll be an underdog for sure, but that would be quite something if he were able to secure a return to juryo at age 36.

Lastly, I wonder whom of Asabenkei, Terunofuji and Amakaze we'll be seeing again in Kyushu, or ever.

[serge_gva 52]

Sagatsukasa is missing 2 tournaments in Juryo to be able to get a kabu, right? That could explain why he's been coming back up in the banzuke lately.
If he can't come back, is he eligible for one of the exceptions that allows to get a kabu with less than 30 tournaments in the paid ranks? Could someone summarize these exceptions?

Edited September 26, 2018 by serge_gva

[ryafuji 815]

9 minutes ago, serge_gva said:

Sagatsukasa is missing 2 tournaments in Juryo to be able to get a kabu, right? That could explain why he's been coming back up in the banzuke lately.
If he can't come back, is he eligible for one of the exceptions that allows to get a kabu with less than 30 tournaments in the paid ranks? Could someone summarize these exceptions?

That would be the "Hochiyama rule." If you can get your shisho, the former holder and another active oyakata to act as guarantors then the eligibility is lowered to 28 tournaments.

 

[Feginowaka 53]

Nobody with a Juryo-Banzuke until now?
Not even our "Grandmaster" Asashosakari?

Ok, here is my try: (comments/corrections always welcome)

Chiyomaru (M14w 6-9)     J1   Kotoeko (J5e 9-6)
Daishoho (J3e 8-7)       J2   Kotoyuki (M16e 6-9)
Aminishiki (J1w 7-8)     J3   Takagenji (J5w 8-7)
Tokushoryu (J11e 11-4 Y) J4   Hidenoumi (J6e 8-7)
Terutsuyoshi (J8w 9-6)   J5   Kyokutaisei (M11w 1-6-8)
Wakatakakage (J7w 8-7)   J6   Ishiura (M16w 4-11)
Akiseyama (J3w 6-9)      J7   Hakuyozan (J12w 10-5)
Kyokushuho (J4w 5-10)    J8   Tsurugisho (J8e 7-8)
Takekaze (J6w 6-9)       J9   Chiyonoo (J7e 6-9)
Azumaryu (J13e 9-6)      J10  Chiyonoumi (J11w 8-7)
Enho (J13w 9-6)          J11  Tobizaru (J10e 7-8)
Mitoryu (J10w 7-8)       J12  Gokushindo (ms5e 7-0 Y)
Jokoryu (J14e 8-7)       J13  Toyonoshima (ms1w 6-1)
Shimanoumi (J9e 5-10)    J14  Tomokaze (ms4w 5-2)

interestingly there was a similar situation at Kyushu 2017 with J6w 6-9 / J13e 9-6 / J13w 9-6 / J11w 8-7 !!!
But this time we additionally have a J7e 6-9 who makes things a little more complicated.
This means somebody of those rikishi has to bite the bullet and be ranked at J11e
At first I thought it might be Chiyonoo, but then chose Enho

[Gurowake 4,088]

Fine then.  I made my first pass before last Wednesday, so I've even updated it with the right promotee.  Very little thought went into it.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2018 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 19,500]

Well then, here's my attempt at juryo:

Yago (J2w 8-7)            J1   Kotoeko (J5e 9-6)
Daishoho (J3e 8-7)        J2   Kotoyuki (M16e 6-9)
Aminishiki (J1w 7-8)      J3   Tokushoryu (J11e 11-4 Y)
Takagenji (J5w 8-7)       J4   Hidenoumi (J6e 8-7)
Terutsuyoshi (J8w 9-6)    J5   Ishiura (M16w 4-11)
Wakatakakage (J7w 8-7)    J6   Akiseyama (J3w 6-9)
Kyokutaisei (M11w 1-6-8)  J7   Hakuyozan (J12w 10-5)
Kyokushuho (J4w 5-10)     J8   Tsurugisho (J8e 7-8)
Takekaze (J6w 6-9)        J9   Chiyonoo (J7e 6-9)
Azumaryu (J13e 9-6)       J10  Enho (J13w 9-6)
Chiyonoumi (J11w 8-7)     J11  Tobizaru (J10e 7-8)
Mitoryu (J10w 7-8)        J12  Jokoryu (J14e 8-7)
Gokushindo (Ms5e 7-0 Y)   J13  Toyonoshima (Ms1w 6-1)
Shimanoumi (J9e 5-10)     J14  Tomokaze (Ms4w 5-2)

Kyokutaisei probably too low, but that's where he "should" be if they're as harsh as usual on somebody who missed most of the tournament.

[Kawabata 270]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Well then, here's my attempt at juryo:

Yago (J2w 8-7)            J1   Kotoeko (J5e 9-6)
Daishoho (J3e 8-7)        J2   Kotoyuki (M16e 6-9)
Aminishiki (J1w 7-8)      J3   Tokushoryu (J11e 11-4 Y)
Takagenji (J5w 8-7)       J4   Hidenoumi (J6e 8-7)
Terutsuyoshi (J8w 9-6)    J5   Ishiura (M16w 4-11)
Wakatakakage (J7w 8-7)    J6   Akiseyama (J3w 6-9)
Kyokutaisei (M11w 1-6-8)  J7   Hakuyozan (J12w 10-5)
Kyokushuho (J4w 5-10)     J8   Tsurugisho (J8e 7-8)
Takekaze (J6w 6-9)        J9   Chiyonoo (J7e 6-9)
Azumaryu (J13e 9-6)       J10  Enho (J13w 9-6)
Chiyonoumi (J11w 8-7)     J11  Tobizaru (J10e 7-8)
Mitoryu (J10w 7-8)        J12  Jokoryu (J14e 8-7)
Gokushindo (Ms5e 7-0 Y)   J13  Toyonoshima (Ms1w 6-1)
Shimanoumi (J9e 5-10)     J14  Tomokaze (Ms4w 5-2)

Kyokutaisei probably too low, but that's where he "should" be if they're as harsh as usual on somebody who missed most of the tournament.

I'm glad you put Yago in at J1, I was starting to feel a little crazy that nobody else was. Now I am at least reassured at about that (of course while still not having the absolute foggiest about how the rest of the Makuuchi banzuke will shake out)

[Asashosakari 19,500]

No promises that I won't have Yago in my final GTB entry though, I'm still completely undecided between him and Chiyomaru...

[Kawabata 270]

10 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

No promises that I won't have Yago in my final GTB entry though, I'm still completely undecided between him and Chiyomaru...

And just like that the doubts re-appear 

No, I'm sticking to my guns, I think their head-to-head this basho will edge it just in Chiyomaru's favour (he says with the confidence of someone about to try GTB for the 2nd time ever...)

[Asashosakari 19,500]

At last, my makushita guess.

Daiseido (Ms2e 4-3)       Ms1   Gagamaru (J12e 6-9)
Toyohibiki (Ms3e 4-3)     Ms2   Irodori (Ms3w 4-3)
Tamaki (Ms4e 4-3)         Ms3   Sagatsukasa (Ms11e 5-2)
Shiba (Ms8w 4-3)          Ms4   Churanoumi (Ms2w 3-4)
Kagamio (Ms12e 5-2)       Ms5   Sokokurai (Ms9e 4-3)
Tomisakae (Ms13e 5-2)     Ms6   Tokushinho (Ms10e 4-3)
Seiro (J9w 1-11-3)        Ms7   Kotodaigo (Ms20e 6-1)
Akua (J14w 3-9-3)         Ms8   Wakamotoharu (Ms14w 5-2)
Kizenryu (Ms1e 2-5)       Ms9   Kiribayama (Ms6e 3-4)
Homarefuji (Ms6w 3-4)     Ms10  Kotokamatani (Ms15e 4-3)
Asakoki (Sd3w 7-0 Y)      Ms11  Higonojo (Ms7w 3-4)
Kotokuzan (Ms16e 4-3)     Ms12  Nakazono (Ms8e 3-4)
Satoyama (Ms21e 5-2)      Ms13  Takayoshitoshi (Ms21w 5-2)
Akinohana (Ms17e 4-3)     Ms14  Kaisho (Ms34e 6-1)
Ryuko (Ms18e 4-3)         Ms15  Horyuyama (Ms18w 4-3)

Kaito (Ms27e 5-2)         Ms16  Ryusei (Ms27w 5-2)
Nogami (Ms28e 5-2)        Ms17  Tsurubayashi (Ms22e 4-3)
Tenkaiho (Ms11w 3-4)      Ms18  Wakatakamoto (Ms7e 2-5)
Tsushimanada (Ms43w 6-1)  Ms19  Gochozan (Ms44w 6-1)
Bushozan (Ms29w 5-2)      Ms20  Ikegawa (Ms24w 4-3)
Chiyootori (Ms25e 4-3)    Ms21  Tochiseiryu (Ms48w 6-1)
Akinoyama (Ms13w 3-4)     Ms22  Dewahayate (Ms14e 3-4)
Keitenkai (Ms9w 2-5)      Ms23  Kansei (Ms15w 3-4)
Asahiryu (Ms28w 4-3)      Ms24  Chiyoarashi (Ms10w 2-5)
Ichiyamamoto (Ms5w 1-6)   Ms25  Nishikifuji (Ms37w 5-2)
Daishoryu (Ms12w 2-5)     Ms26  Okinofuji (Ms39e 5-2)
Kiseoka (Ms31e 4-3)       Ms27  Mugendai (Ms31w 4-3)
Fujiazuma (Ms19w 3-4)     Ms28  Hamayutaka (Ms32w 4-3)
Chiyosakae (Ms41e 5-2)    Ms29  Aomihama (Ms33e 4-3)
Kitaharima (Ms20w 3-4)    Ms30  Byakko (Sd2e 6-1)

Ayanoumi (Ms34w 4-3)      Ms31  Hokaho (Ms43e 5-2)
Masutoo (Ms36w 4-3)       Ms32  Shonannoumi (Ms37e 4-3)
Hokutokawa (Ms45w 5-2)    Ms33  Karatsuumi (Ms16w 2-5)
Midorifuji (Ms23e 3-4)    Ms34  Tochihiryu (Ms17w 2-5)
Kizakiumi (Ms24e 3-4)     Ms35  Kairyu (Ms26e 3-4)
Takakento (Ms26w 3-4)     Ms36  Aozora (Ms55e 5-2)
Tochikodai (Sd63e 7-0 D)  Ms37  Sakigake (Ms58e 5-2)
Sasakiyama (Ms59e 5-2)    Ms38  Kototsubasa (Ms59w 5-2)
Koba (Ms23w 2-5)          Ms39  Hisanotora (Ms30w 3-4)
Dairaido (Sd17w 6-1)      Ms40  Kyokusoten (Ms49w 4-3)
Mitotsukasa (Ms50e 4-3)   Ms41  Nankairiki (Ms25w 2-5)
Nionoumi (Ms19e 1-6)      Ms42  Omoto (Sd20w 6-1)
Chiyonokatsu (Ms51w 4-3)  Ms43  Ichiki (Ms52w 4-3)
Wakayama (Ms53e 4-3)      Ms44  Honda (Ms53w 4-3)
Tanabe (Ms35e 3-4)        Ms45  Fukuyama (Ms35w 3-4)

Asahisho (Ms29e 2-5)      Ms46  Kotoinagaki (Ms22w 1-6)
Terao (Ms55w 4-3)         Ms47  Hoshoryu (Ms56e 4-3)
Tochinobori (Ms30e 2-5)   Ms48  Ohata (Sd7w 5-2)
Takaryu (Ms38e 3-4)       Ms49  Ikeru (Ms38w 3-4)
Amanoshima (Sd9w 5-2)     Ms50  Irie (Ms39w 3-4)
Hitachigo (Sd1e 4-3)      Ms51  Fujita (Sd1w 4-3)
Sadanohana (Sd36w 6-1)    Ms52  Obamaumi (Ms41w 3-4)
Higoarashi (Ms42e 3-4)    Ms53  Musashikuni (Ms42w 3-4)
Azumasato (Sd14w 5-2)     Ms54  Tamakongo (Sd4e 4-3)
Daishoiwa (Sd41e 6-1)     Ms55  Oazuma (Ms36e 2-5)
Kainoryu (Sd17e 5-2)      Ms56  Yamaguchi (Ms46e 3-4)
Tennozan (Sd6w 4-3)       Ms57  Saidaiji (Sd19e 5-2)
Tsukahara (Sd46e 6-1)     Ms58  Kotokino (Sd8e 4-3)
Yuki (Sd9e 4-3)           Ms59  Shingaku (Sd23e 5-2)
Satoyama (Sd10w 4-3)      Ms60  Kotorikisen (Sd25w 5-2)

demoted from makushita:

Komanokuni (Ms50w 3-4)
Kotodairyu (Ms51e 3-4)
Oki (Ms52e 3-4)
Aonosho (Ms54e 3-4)
Shohoryu (Ms54w 3-4)
Kototebakari (Ms58w 3-4)
Naya (Ms60e 3-4)

Ryuseio (Ms40e 2-5)
Komakiryu (Ms40w 2-5)
Kirinofuji (Ms46w 2-5)
Genkaiho (Ms47w 2-5)
Inoue (Ms56w 2-5)
Shosei (Ms57w 2-5)
Wagurayama (Ms60w 2-5)

Asakishin (Ms33w 1-6)
Kihonoumi (Ms44e 1-6)
Sadanosato (Ms57e 1-6)

Murata (Ms32e 0-0-7)
Asabenkei (Ms45e 0-0-7)
Terunofuji (Ms47e 0-0-7)
Fukugoriki (Ms48e 0-0-7)
Amakaze (Ms49e 0-0-7)