Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2018

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Day 13 (results, text-only results):

    10-3  Kakuryu       Y1   Hakuho       13-0
     9-4  Kisenosato    Y2
    11-2  Goeido        O1   Takayasu     11-2
                        O2   Tochinoshin   7-6

The difference in power between Hakuho and the only partially debugged Kisenosato 2.0 was in evidence today, as the returned yokozuna was on his back foot right from the tachiai and found himself marched out in relatively short order by the yusho leader. Kakuryu ended up losing even more decisively to Goeido in the next bout and is officially out of the yusho race. Goeido and fellow ozeki Takayasu (beating Abi) remain in range at 11-2, but are already dependent on Kakuryu pulling off a minor upset over Hakuho on senshuraku - assuming the yusho isn't already decided tomorrow through Hakuho defeating Goeido.

Kadoban Tochinoshin, meanwhile, found himself outpaced by Shodai's clever sumo, and just when it looked as though the ozeki might turn the tables on the bout after all, the maegashira pulled off the sukuinage win. It's Abi for Tochinoshin tomorrow, before Takayasu awaits him on the final day.

Sekiwake Mitakeumi finally stopped the rot after five straight losing days, but was made to work hard for it even by Myogiryu and looked no less convincing than in his other recent matches. At minimum he's assured of a sanyaku berth for Kyushu now, though that's of course far from where he likely hoped to be at this stage of the basho. Ichinojo won bout #3 in a row, this time over Chiyotairyu and quite easily so, and needs one more to be komusubi and two to stay as sekiwake. Takakeisho's second sanyaku appearance is going miles better than his debut did last January, as he closes in on his kachikoshi. Day 13 saw him pick up his fourth consecutive win, in the komusubi duel with deeply makekoshi Tamawashi. (Incidentally, the latest that a K-K matchup has taken place in three years.)

Yesterday's near-complete washout among the maegashira contending for a sanyaku promotion was followed by much the same today; Kaisei (against Chiyonokuni) and Shodai were successful, the other four were forced to leave with losses. Just as well that it increasingly looks as though only one promotee will need to be sourced from them.

     7-6  Mitakeumi     S    Ichinojo      6-7
(x)  3-10 Tamawashi     K    Takakeisho    7-6

                        M1   Kaisei        6-7
                        M2
     6-7  Shodai        M3
                        M4   Abi           6-7
     8-5  Myogiryu      M5   Asanoyama     7-6
                        ...
(x)  8-5  Hokutofuji    M9

Two pretty important pairings are on the schedule for tomorrow with Ichinojo-Shodai and Takakeisho-Myogiryu.


Kotoyuki was sent up into the middle of the division to face Tochiozan today, and it ended with another one of his patented big rolls off the dohyo, and more importantly makekoshi. There aren't enough credible records in juryo yet to be certain that he's now headed down there, but things aren't looking good. Aoiyama had a very quick slapdown victory over debutant Takanosho and should be secure in the top division now. Chiyomaru appears to have turned things around sufficiently to get there in the end, as well. Today he defeated promotion hopeful Yago for his third straight win (albeit the first having been the fusensho over Kyokutaisei).

Yago will thus have to wait a bit longer, while the other J2 Meisei has clinched a promotable record with today's victory over Mitoryu. Both J1's Arawashi and Aminishiki were unable to improve their records today, and the latter will now need to win both weekend bouts to have a chance to better his own oldest-return-to-makuuchi record again. Daiamami is on his second four-day winning streak of the basho and has firmly worked his way back into the promotion battle.

(o)  5-8  Aoiyama       M10
                        M11  Kyokutaisei  1-6-6 (x)
                        M12
                        M13
                        M14  Chiyomaru     6-7  (1)
                        M15
(~)  5-8  Kotoyuki      M16  Ishiura       3-10 (x)

(1)  7-6  Arawashi      J1   Aminishiki    6-7  (2)
(o)  9-4  Meisei        J2   Yago          8-5  (1)
(~)  6-7  Daishoho      J3   Akiseyama     5-8  (x)
(1)  9-4  Daiamami      J4
(~)  7-6  Kotoeko       J5   Takagenji     7-6  (~)

The promotion race continues to be overshadowed somewhat by the juryo yusho race, but four strong contenders for what looks like only three available spots may prove quite suspenseful for the final two days after all. Tochiozan has received another call to factor into the potential demotions as he faces Chiyomaru tomorrow, and Arawashi goes up to makuuchi to meet Kotoyuki.


We're down to just one more lower juryo rikishi on the bubble after Day 13. Jokoryu earned kachikoshi against Takekaze today, his first KK as a sekitori since Kyushu 2015, and Tobizaru clinched his stay in the second division with victory over Aminishiki. Only Gagamaru remains after his loss to Kotoeko.

The second promotion slot is now spoken for after Gokushindo survived a very spirited challenge by low-ranked Tsushimanada to grab both the yusho and his sekitori debut. The 22-year-old talent should prove a nice addition to the salaried ranks over time.

                        J9   Seiro        1-9-3 (x)
(o)  6-7  Tobizaru      J10
                        J11
(1)  6-7  Gagamaru      J12
                        J13
(o)  8-5  Jokoryu       J14  Akua         3-9-1 (x)

                        Ms1  Toyonoshima   5-1  (o)
     4-2  Daiseido      Ms2
     4-3  Toyohibiki    Ms3  Irodori       3-3
     3-3  Tamaki        Ms4  Tomokaze      4-2
(o)  7-0  Gokushindo    Ms5

All the remaining fireworks down here will be ignited tomorrow, with everyone not yet at 7 bouts in action. It's Tomokaze against Gagamaru in a classic crossover matchup, while Daiseido goes against Azumaryu (J13e 7-6), one of two juryo rikishi who could conceivably be over-demoted to makushita with two more losses. (The other one is J7e Chiyonoo at 4-9 - he meets Seiro, so that's likely his move to safety. Edit: Make that three rikishi, I overlooked Shimanoumi with his 5-8 at J9e.) Irodori faces promising Mongolian Ms6e Kiribayama for kachikoshi, Tamaki goes against ex-juryo short timer Ms7w Higonojo. And last not least Toyonoshima will also conclude his basho against fellow former top division member Ms12e Kagamio.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Juryo yusho race:

9-4 J2e Meisei, J4e Daiamami, J11e Tokushoryu

8-5 J2w Yago, J12w Hakuyozan, J13w Enho, J14e Jokoryu

7-6 J1e Arawashi, J5e Kotoeko, J5w Takagenji, J7w Wakatakakage, J8w Terutsuyoshi, J10w Mitoryu, J11w Chiyonoumi, J13e Azumaryu


Yago's attempt for win #9 up in makuuchi failed, but the three other leaders all defeated their 7-5 opponents. Those guys are likely eliminated from the race now along with all the other 7-6's, as Meisei can still face Tokushoryu and they'll surely schedule that match for senshuraku if nobody gets to 10 wins tomorrow. (Unless they're as morbidly fascinated with this race as we are, I guess...)

Anyway, the rest of the 7-5's scored 3 wins and 2 losses, so the low-ranked trio of Hakuyozan, Enho and Jokoryu has joined Yago in pursuit of the leading three.

Up for Day 14:

J11e Tokushoryu (9-4)  -  J2w  Yago (8-5)

J4e  Daiamami (9-4)    -  J6w  Takekaze (6-7)
J2e  Meisei (9-4)      -  J8e  Tsurugisho (6-7)

J9e  Shimanoumi (5-8)  -  J13w Enho (8-5)
J5e  Kotoeko (7-6)     -  J14e Jokoryu (8-5)
J12w Hakuyozan (8-5)   -  J5w  Takagenji (7-6)
 

Lower division yusho races (Day 13 results and links to video where available - anyone found the two sandanme bouts?):

7-0 Ms5e Gokushindo (Nishikido)
6-1 Ms43w Tsushimanada (Sakaigawa)

7-0 Sd3w Asakoki (Takasago)
6-1 Sd46e Tsukahara (Kasugano)
7-0 Sd63e Tochikodai (Kasugano)

6-1 Jd11w Yoshoyama (Tokitsukaze)
6-1 Jd50e Sadanogo (Sakaigawa)
7-0 Jd90w Asakura (Tokitsukaze)

6-1 Jk17w Akatsuki (Takadagawa)
7-0 Jk31w Mitsuuchi (Onomatsu)

Well, 5/5 for my picks, although the "close on paper" aspect hardly materialized as expected. Mitsuuchi easily marched Akatsuki back and out to secure the jonokuchi yusho, and Asakura had little more trouble with Sadanogo - that one turned out to be a yusho-clincher as well after Yoshoyama fell to Tochikodai, a brief opening flurry of offense proving insufficient to defeat his higher-ranked opponent. At Jd90w Asakura's the lowest-ranked jonidan yusho winner in almost three years.

Tochikodai will now be contesting a playoff for the sandanme yusho on Sunday, already the second in his short career. His opponent is experienced Asakoki who prevailed over rookie Tsukahara in a bout not unlike Tochikodai-Yoshoyama - Tsukahara's rather uncontrolled sumo put him in charge but for a moment, before Asakoki was able to exploit his technical advantage and gain the win.

The most interesting match by far turned out to be Gokushindo's victory in the makushita decider after all, and if you haven't already seen it in Kintamayama's daily summary it's highly recommended and available as a separate video from the results query above. It's a shame that Tsushimanada is not only another rather skinny guy but also seems to carry a load of injuries already just two years into his career, as his matches have been worth the price of admission nearly every time I see him.

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Yago will thus have to wait a bit longer, while the other J2 Meisei has clinched a promotable record with today's victory over Mitoryu. There are at most two rikishi who might still end up with greater promotion claims than his, so his return to the top ranks is certain. Both J1's Azumaryu and Aminishiki were unable to improve their records today, and the latter will now need to win both weekend bouts to have a chance to better his own oldest-return-to-makuuchi record again. Daiamami is on his second four-day winning streak of the basho and has firmly worked his way back into the promotion battle.

;-)

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36 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

The most interesting match by far turned out to be Gokushindo's victory in the makushita decider after all, and if you haven't already seen it in Kintamayama's daily summary it's highly recommended and available as a separate video from the results query above. It's a shame that Tsushimanada is not only another rather skinny guy but also seems to carry a load of injuries already just two years into his career, as his matches have been worth the price of admission nearly every time I see him.

Did you watch a different match than me?  Ok, maybe it was *more* interesting than the other lower division yusho matches, and it's probably a bit more of a match than can be expected given their rank difference, but I wouldn't particularly recommend it to anyone.  It was mostly them leaning on each other and some totally uninteresting slapping.  Tsushimanada looked like he might try something interesting at a point or two, but he didn't really try to follow through on them.

Edited by Gurowake

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1 hour ago, chishafuwaku said:

;-)

Bah, fixed. Thanks. All those A-shikona in juryo are starting to bleed into each other after two weeks...
 

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Did you watch a different match than me?  Ok, maybe it was *more* interesting than the other lower division yusho matches, and it's probably a bit more of a match than can be expected given their rank difference, but I wouldn't particularly recommend it to anyone.  It was mostly them leaning on each other and some totally uninteresting slapping.  Tsushimanada looked like he might try something interesting at a point or two, but he didn't really try to follow through on them.

Lowered expectations, perhaps, plus the fact that I actually enjoy stalemated bouts because I find it interesting to see how rikishi deal with that unusual situation, particularly when they're seemingly as mismatched as in this pairing and the stakes of winning and losing are this high. 5-second high octane action to serve as random entertainment can be found any day, that's not what my recommendation was going for.

Edited by Asashosakari

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So correct me if I'm wrong but the Makuuchi/Juryo promotion/demotion looks like this to me at the moment.

Kyokutaisei, Ishiura and Kotoyuki will be in Juryo next basho. Chiyomaru will have to beat Aminishiki tomorrow or he'll join them.

The promotion from juryo to makuuchi is a bit more open still. Meisei and Daiamami will definitely be making their returns. Arawashi as well if he can get his 8th win tomorrow and otherwise Yago will get the 3rd spot. If Chiyomaru loses and a fourth spot opens up it'll go to Yago if Arawashi wins, if Arawashi loses this spot will go to Daishoho if he can get his 8th win and the third option for this potential fourth spot would be Kotoeko if Arawashi and Daishoho both lose tomorrow.

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If Kotoyuki wins tomorrow and nobody HAS to be promoted by the numbers for his spot, there is the faint possibility that he stays in makuuchi - I'd say he goes down for Yago, but not for Daishoho, Chiyomaru could go down first as w14 with 9 losses

Edited by Akinomaki

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K1w Takakeisho's (8-6) promotion to Sekiwake depends entirely on S1w Ichinojo (7-7) losing to M5e Myogiryu (8-6). Myogiryu's promotion to Komusubi depends entirely on M1w Kaisei (7-7) losing to M3e Shodai (6-8).

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M16e Kotoyuki (6-8) might remain in Makuuchi with a Day 15 win. 4 of the last 5 times an M16 got 7 wins, he stayed in Makuuchi.

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15 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

It's a shame that Tsushimanada is not only another rather skinny guy but also seems to carry a load of injuries already just two years into his career, as his matches have been worth the price of admission nearly every time I see him.


I agree, in fact he came in while still recovering from a knee injury (because had he waited longer he would have been over the age limit, if I remember correctly), hence the missed maezumo stint at the start. And he often has taping on his shoulder, so he seems like one of those who has plenty of miles on the clock from his collegiate days. I adopted him into Yubinhaad-beya last year when he had a fusenpai after missing his train to the basho. (Laughing...)

Happy for Gokushindo, and Nishikido-beya is off the mark at last with their first yusho.

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1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

M16e Kotoyuki (6-8) might remain in Makuuchi with a Day 15 win. 4 of the last 5 times an M16 got 7 wins, he stayed in Makuuchi.

Yes - underdemotion has been the trend for resolving banzuke difficulties for quite some time.  This is true within the ranks of a given division also.

Edited by Ack!

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Promotion queue Juryo -> Makuuchi

Arawashi with a win
Daiamami, Meisei
Yago with a win
-Nominal Promotion criteria line-
Yago with a loss
Daishoho with a win, Kotoeko with a win
-One win short of nominal promotion line-
Kotoeko with a loss, Tokushoryu with a win

 

Demotion queue Makuuchi -> Juryo:

Ishiura, Kyokutaisei
Kotoyuki with a loss
-One win short of nominal demotion line-
Chiyomaru with a loss
Kotoyuki with a win
-Nominal Demotion Criteria line-
Onosho with a loss, Chiyomaru with a win

Only matches between these are Ishiura-Onosho and Meisei-Tokushoryu, which really don't matter at all.

Daiamami and Meisei seem to be clear swaps for Ishiura and Kyokutaisei.  Someone else will go down if Arawashi wins, but it might be Chiyomaru or Kotoyuki.  There are other possibilities based on Yago winning also.  If Arawashi wins as well, Yago would be the one squeezed out if there's only 3 demotion candidates as Chiyomaru seems high enough to avoid over-demotion.  If there's a 7-8 Kotoyuki vs. a 8-7 Yago, I'd guess Kotoyuki stays, but wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Edited by Gurowake

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Day 14 (results, text-only results):

    10-4  Kakuryu       Y1   Hakuho       14-0
    10-4  Kisenosato    Y2
    11-3  Goeido        O1   Takayasu     11-3
                        O2   Tochinoshin   8-6

The mind games at the shikiri-sen went longer than the bout ended up taking - following a strong tachiai and a big uwatenage to topple Goeido, Hakuho is the Aki 2018 champion for his 41st title, clinching his 1000th top division win along the way as well. Kyushu will see him ranked Y1e for the first time in five tournaments - and rather unexpectedly he may end up joined there by Kisenosato who pulled even with Kakuryu at 10-4 after a lengthy yotsu battle between the two. Day 15 bouts with the yusho already in the bag are always a bit tricky, but given his four-day slide it's somewhat hard to see Kakuryu preventing the zensho finish for Hakuho, while Kisenosato should have a decent shot against Goeido.

Takayasu had fallen out of the yusho race even before the Hakuho-Goeido encounter, courtesy of his loss to Mitakeumi who is kachikoshi at last. Tochinoshin also secured his KK by throwing down Abi with authority and will continue to be ozeki into 2019.

Three sanyaku slots are spoken for after today; Mitakeumi is set to retain the Sekiwake East position, and both Ichinojo and Takakeisho will be at least komusubi after Day 14 defeats of Shodai and Myogiryu. It's now up to Ichinojo's senshuraku bout to decide which of the two will be Sekiwake West for Kyushu.

The race to replace Tamawashi as komusubi was thinned out considerably: Both Shodai and Abi fell to makekoshi, and Asanoyama's fourth loss in as many days means he can no longer finish top of the race. Kaisei is in the driver's seat after he improved to 7-7 - if he can do it once more against Shodai tomorrow he'll be a lock for promotion. If not, then Myogiryu is waiting in the wings for a lucky (if 9-6) or extremely lucky (if 8-7) promotion. (For completeness, Hokutofuji is 9-5 at M9e and could tie an 8-7 Myogiryu on the numbers, but it would be very unusual for them to reach down that far when a comparable candidate exists higher up.)

     8-6  Mitakeumi     S    Ichinojo      7-7
(x)  3-11 Tamawashi     K    Takakeisho    8-6

                        M1   Kaisei        7-7
                        M2
(x)  6-8  Shodai        M3
                        M4   Abi           6-8  (x)
     8-6  Myogiryu      M5   Asanoyama     7-7  (x)

We could be in for as many as five rikishi sharing the jun-yusho record, but the more likely outcome is probably that at least one of Goeido (vs Kisenosato) and Takayasu (vs Tochinoshin) moves up to 12-3. Kakuryu, Kisenosato and low-ranked Yoshikaze are those who would be able to join them at 11-4 if they both don't.


The maegashira demotion race is still far from done because Chiyomaru also wasn't able to defeat Tochiozan (though he got close), and Kotoyuki maintained his last bits of hope with victory over visiting Arawashi. I had some nonsense in yesterday's post about Meisei having secured at least the third-best promotion slot - today it's actually true after Yago dropped to 8-6 against yusho-leading Tokushoryu. Daiamami is also headed back to makuuchi with today's 10th win (which sent veteran Takekaze to his third straight MK) as he cannot finish lower than third now, either.

As Gurowake already noted, things are rather complex beyond the Meisei/Daiamami for Kyokutaisei/Ishiura exchanges. Anything from Yago unluckily missing out with a promotable record to a very fortunate promotion for Daishoho or Kotoeko with normally insufficient wins is still possible depending on the senshuraku results and in some scenarios the whims of the banzuke committee.

                        M11  Kyokutaisei  1-6-7 (x)
                        M12
                        M13
                        M14  Chiyomaru     6-8  (1)
                        M15
(~)  6-8  Kotoyuki      M16  Ishiura       4-10 (x)

(1)  7-7  Arawashi      J1   Aminishiki    6-8  (x)
(o)  9-5  Meisei        J2   Yago          8-6  (1)
(~)  7-7  Daishoho      J3
(o) 10-4  Daiamami      J4
(~)  8-6  Kotoeko       J5   Takagenji     7-7  (x)

 

The situation between juryo and makushita is a lot more clear-cut, and will go off without major banzuke luck involved. Daiseido made sure of that involuntarily by getting flung down in short order by Azumaryu today. He does still have a chance to get promoted despite missing out on a stronger-looking 5-2 record, thanks to Tomokaze's defeat of Gagamaru who thus wasn't able to escape the bubble for the third straight day.

Furthermore, the Day 15 makushita action also saw shiroboshi for Toyonoshima, Irodori and Tamaki, the latter two clinching kachikoshi at the finish line.

                        J9   Seiro       1-10-3 (x)
                        J10
                        J11
(1)  6-8  Gagamaru      J12
                        J13
                        J14  Akua         3-9-2 (x)

                        Ms1  Toyonoshima   6-1  (o)
     4-3  Daiseido      Ms2
     4-3  Toyohibiki    Ms3  Irodori       4-3
     4-3  Tamaki        Ms4  Tomokaze      5-2
(o)  7-0  Gokushindo    Ms5

First time in nearly two years with at least 7 KK in the promotion zone, and with the low number of promotions to come we'll be seeing a lot of the same faces up there again in November. But first, the question of Gagamaru's sekitori survival. There are no more makushita rikishi available to put against him, but they're not making it easy for him anyway - his Day 15 opponent is yusho-chasing Daiamami. (Coincidentally they faced off on senshuraku last basho, too, Gagamaru won that one.)


And speaking of which, the penultimate look at the juryo yusho arasoi:

10-4 J4e Daiamami, J11e Tokushoryu

9-5 J2e Meisei, J12w Hakuyozan, J13w Enho

As mentioned, Tokushoryu defeated Yago and Daiamami was successful against Takekaze, while Meisei fell back from the lead against Tsurugisho. The pursuers were halved with Hakuyozan and Enho winning, and Yago and Jokoryu leaving the race.

Daiamami and Tokushoryu already met on Day 11 with the gumbai going Tokushoryu's way, so a straight head-to-head for the yusho is not possible this basho. Thus it's Daiamami-Gagamaru per the above, and Tokushoryu will have to deal with pursuer Meisei. That latter bout will be going second, so Meisei will already know if he can still clinch a playoff spot or merely play spoiler to Tokushoryu's chances. Tokushoryu likewise will either be in position only to get into an 11-4 playoff with Daiamami, or to win all the marbles directly.

As for the other contenders, it's Hakuyozan against Wakatakakage (J7w 8-6) and Enho against Daishoho (J3e 7-7).

 

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I have a feeling even with a loss Gagamaru is safe for this basho. I thought the same with Kizneryu last basho but he was one rank lower. I think only Toyonoshima   and Gokushindo get the nod this time. 

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56 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I have a feeling even with a loss Gagamaru is safe for this basho. I thought the same with Kizneryu last basho but he was one rank lower. I think only Toyonoshima   and Gokushindo get the nod this time. 

4-3 Ms2e is a LOT different than a 4-3 Ms5w.

 

(Damn, Rocks already quoted the error I fixed :( )

Edited by Gurowake

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3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

4-3 M2e is a LOT different than a 4-3 Ms5w.

I hope you are right. I'm pretty tired of seeing Gagmaru to tell the truth. Although if he goes down it's possible to see him at least once in a crossover match.

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

The race to replace Tamawashi as komusubi was thinned out considerably: Both Shodai and Abi fell to makekoshi, and Asanoyama's fourth loss in as many days means he can no longer finish top of the race. Kaisei is in the driver's seat after he improved to 7-7 - if he can do it once more against Shodai tomorrow he'll be a lock for promotion. If not, then Myogiryu is waiting in the wings for a lucky (if 9-6) or extremely lucky (if 8-7) promotion. (For completeness, Hokutofuji is 9-5 at M9e and could tie an 8-7 Myogiryu on the numbers, but it would be very unusual for them to reach down that far when a comparable candidate exists higher up.)

Well, after Nagoya 2014 there was Chiyotairyu over Terunofuji, which would have been the debut of either of them at Komusubi.  Terunofuji though only had one sanyaku opponent, while Myogiryu will have had 3. Myogiryu is also a former sekiwake and Hokutofuji would be making his sanyaku debut.  So I think there's enough to say that Hokutofuji isn't going to get the nod in the 1/4 chance that it happens to begin with, but it's not like they haven't given it to the lower-ranking and better-scoring rikishi in the recent past.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201407#M

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So now the question for J-M is: will Chiyomaru go down for Yago or not - I don't think it's likely (nowadays), Yago as new to makuuchi, but he is from Hokkaido ...

Edit: Kitanofuji thinks Yago will go up

Edited by Akinomaki

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6 hours ago, Rocks said:

I have a feeling even with a loss Gagamaru is safe for this basho. I thought the same with Kizneryu last basho but he was one rank lower. I think only Toyonoshima   and Gokushindo get the nod this time. 

My feeling is Gaga will be demoted.  No sympathy for Gaga.

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With so many MK in the Jo-i zone, they'll have to go quite deep down the ranks to find guys to promote. Myogiryu M5E (8-7) is the first obvious choice but then it's Tochiozan M7w (8-7), Hokutofuji M9e (9-6) and they would need to go even deeper than that to find more so maybe they'll be kind to some of the guys with bad records at the top though I can't really see to who.

In addition to Ishiura, and Kyokutaisei, Kotoyuki (6-9) with a loss today is going down to Juryo it seems, Arawashi J1e (8-7) is the obvious replacement, Meisei and Daiamami are going up with him. I think Chiyomaru despite being Kyujo today is going to be safe with 6 wins as Yago lost today and 8-7 doesn't seem enough to force the promotion. Yago and Daishoho are likely going to be J1e and J1w.

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3 minutes ago, Rainoyama said:

With so many MK in the Jo-i zone, they'll have to go quite deep down the ranks to find guys to promote. Myogiryu M5E (8-7) is the first obvious choice but then it's Tochiozan M7w (8-7), Hokutofuji M9e (9-6) and they would need to go even deeper than that to find more so maybe they'll be kind to some of the guys with bad records at the top though I can't really see to who.

There will be pretty big moves up and down the Maeg's ranks.   I wonder how far Yoshi is going up?   Many 7-8 rikish may not even go down a rank.   What a mess!

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3 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

There will be pretty big moves up and down the Maeg's ranks.   I wonder how far Yoshi is going up?   Many 7-8 rikish may not even go down a rank.   What a mess!

Nishikigi, Ryuden, Takanoiwa will be up quite a lot yoshi is just behind

Edited by Rainoyama

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Long time lurker here, mostly because I don't know enough to have anything meaningful to add.  Certainly I can watch the summaries on the web (which are great btw), and learn the terms and past results from the sumoDB, but I just want to say that I learn a lot from your threads.   I can really get a glimpse of how the banzuke shakes out and what to watch for during the basho.

 

Anyways, thanks for the informative postings, well everybody actually.  Carry on.

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Yeah, the maegashira joi ranks are going to get some really lucky promotees into them.  There's simply no one to put there except for low ranking KKs.  How lenient they are with Tamawashi and Shodai are the major questions, as they both could conceivably end up back in the top 16 if they really don't want to bring up Ryuden and Takanoiwa.  It's not until you get to Asanoyama at M5w 7-8, who may well remain there, do things get back to normal with plenty of MKs to fill in the slots.

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Day 15 (results, text-only results):

    10-5  Kakuryu       Y1   Hakuho       15-0
    10-5  Kisenosato    Y2
    12-3  Goeido        O1   Takayasu     11-4
                        O2   Tochinoshin   9-6

A yusho decision before the final day always threatens to take a bit of the air out of the senshuraku proceedings on the dohyo, at least among the high ranks, but the last three bouts of the basho were arguably still worth the price of admission. Tochinoshin and Goeido delivered emphatic victories over Tagonoura-beya duo Takayasu and Kisenosato, before Hakuho and fellow yokozuna Kakuryu closed the tournament with a classic yotsu battle, eventually won by the champion for his 14th zensho yusho. Goeido takes the sole jun-yusho at 12-3, the first time since his own yusho two years ago that he's posted at least this many wins.

The sanyaku ranks were settled in what was arguably the most expected order. Mitakeumi, already secure at S1e, did add a 9th win to his tally, which may or may not be enough to have another shot at the ozeki promotion next time. The fate of the Sw slot was up to Ichinojo for the second straight tournament, and just like last time he managed to come through after all, defeating Myogiryu to clinch his kachikoshi. Takakeisho was also victorious and sent Asanoyama to makekoshi in the process, but his 9-6 final record will now only be good enough to move over to the East side at komusubi. Lastly even Tamawashi earned a senshuraku win, giving us the only day of the basho on which all 4 lower sanyaku were successful.

In a somewhat strange situation Myogiryu's defeat won't matter for his banzuke prospects at all - the potential sanyaku promotion was already impossible at the time of his match, thanks to Kaisei keeping his spotless record over Shodai (now H2H 7-0) to get his kachikoshi, and with no competition at all it was going to be Myogiryu moving to M1e with 8-7 or 9-6 either way. Kaisei for his part will be returning to sanyaku for the first time in two years, taking over the Komusubi West slot.

As has been widely remarked upon already, we're likely in for some unexpected faces in the joi next time courtesy of the nearly complete wipeout up there and not much better results by the maegashira just below the meatgrinder ranks. Even Yoshikaze might find himself straight back in the top 16 spots from all the way down at M15w.

The general lack of impressive performances by the rank-and-file extended to the sansho nomination process, which resulted in no prizes being awarded for the first time since they were introduced in 1947.

     9-6  Mitakeumi     S    Ichinojo      8-7
(x)  4-11 Tamawashi     K    Takakeisho    9-6

                        M1   Kaisei        8-7  (o)
                        M2
                        M3
                        M4
     8-7  Myogiryu      M5


The promotion/demotion race in the lower maegashira ranks took an unexpected turn even before the action started, as Chiyomaru had to withdraw from his scheduled bout with a foot injury. That has clinched a demotable record for him, but he may yet survive: Kotoyuki lost to Aoiyama and was not able to capitalize on this gift offer, falling to a clearly juryo-bound record of 6-9, and down in juryo only Arawashi was able to make sure of his promotion while Yago was defeated to finish just 8-7, quite possibly not enough to be exchanged for Chiyomaru. That should be the only questionable decision to make here, the rest is obvious: Kyokutaisei, Kotoyuki and Ishiura are headed down, and Arawashi, Meisei and Daiamami are all returning to the top flight. If Yago has to stay down, it'll be the first time in four tournaments without a makuuchi-debuting rikishi.

The juryo yusho race came down to the two Day 14 leaders after all. Daiamami was first to pick up his 11th win, eliminating the 9-5's from contention, and Tokushoryu proceeded to join him to set up the ketteisen between them. This was already Daiamami's second juryo yusho opportunity in his just seven tournaments in the division, but unlike Nagoya 2017 he wasn't able to come through the playoff this time, and had to yield to the veteran. It's the first juryo yusho for 32-year-old Tokushoryu, whose career had looked rather moribund for the last year or so. It remains to be seen if it's the start of a career revival or just the last hurrah.

For all the first-week hooplah about the crushing mediocrity in juryo, it's somewhat surprising that two rikishi managed to get to 11 wins after all. And not only that - the final hoshitori also shows no less than 7 KK rikishi in the top 5 ranks, which is not exactly an everyday occurrence (about once a year on average).

                        M11  Kyokutaisei  1-6-8 (x)
                        M12
                        M13
                        M14  Chiyomaru     6-9  (?)
                        M15
(x)  6-9  Kotoyuki      M16  Ishiura       4-11 (x)

(o)  8-7  Arawashi      J1
(o)  9-6  Meisei        J2   Yago          8-7  (?)
     8-7  Daishoho      J3
(o) 11-4  Daiamami      J4
     9-6  Kotoeko       J5   Takagenji     8-7


The victim of Daiamami's playoff clincher win was Gagamaru who should be finding himself ticketed down to makushita with his 6-9 record, ending nine years as sekitori. He will almost certainly be ranked Ms1e if he decides to continue, from which it would take just the minimum kachikoshi to return to the paid ranks, and I for one expect him to try to do that in Kyushu, and to succeed. However, even if he does, it's rather more doubtful that it would lead to any further sustained presence in juryo - the downward trend in his performances over the last couple of years arguably speaks for itself, and the next demotion would/will likely only be a matter of time. Still, there's probably a bit more money to be made for him before it's all over, if he wants to.

Gagamaru's plight was Daiseido's fortune; the 25-year-old former top prospect should be on the way to his second juryo stint. The first one a year ago consisted of a rather puzzling combination of a credible 8-7 debut followed by an absolute disaster at 2-13 where he looked outclassed in every possible way (without showing outward signs of injury, IIRC). He'll be joined on the promotion elevator by former sekiwake Toyonoshima and 22-year-old debutant Gokushindo. Alongside Gagamaru in the other direction it'll be Seiro, out of the sekitori ranks after more than five years, and Akua whose second trip to juryo unfortunately ended even worse than the first one back in January.

                        J9   Seiro       1-11-3 (x)
                        J10
                        J11
(x)  6-9  Gagamaru      J12
                        J13
                        J14  Akua         3-9-3 (x)

                        Ms1  Toyonoshima   6-1  (o)
(o)  4-3  Daiseido      Ms2
     4-3  Toyohibiki    Ms3  Irodori       4-3
     4-3  Tamaki        Ms4  Tomokaze      5-2
(o)  7-0  Gokushindo    Ms5

And last not least, senshuraku also saw the decision in the sandanme yusho race, where youngster Tochikodai contested his second sandanme playoff in 10 months, but came up short once again, so the title and winner's cheque went to veteran Asakoki. The 27-year-old former Ms13-ranked rikishi might even secure a new career-high rank if the banzuke committee plays along, but one would suspect that he's in for tough times on the dohyo in November either way. Tochikodai will also return to makushita, and likely just hope to do better than last time, which saw him forced to delay his entry into the basho to the middle weekend, only to pick up four straight losses for a 0-4-3 record and trip right back to sandanme.

That's it for this basho, which most fans seem to agree was a pretty good one, not least for having all the top-rankers actually present for once. Let's hope we'll get more of the same - or even better - when the action moves to Fukuoka in seven weeks.

Edited by Asashosakari
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