Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2018

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Asojima    1,900
26 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I'll consider that. Do you have a strong preference for the total number of sekitori basho, or would it also work with the split numbers for makuuchi and juryo?

I like the idea.  If you are going to do it, I vote for the Juryo/Makuuchi split.

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Feginowaka    46
17 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'll consider that. Do you have a strong preference for the total number of sekitori basho, or would it also work with the split numbers for makuuchi and juryo?

No, I don't have a preference for #1.
If it's not too much work, #2 would be even better  (Signofapproval...)

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Gurowake    1,719

I'm guessing #2 is less work - the DB doesn't report total sekitori basho, only basho in each division.

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Kintamayama    22,816
On 22.7.2018 at 01:04, Asashosakari said:

You could always enter GTB and bet two points on it.  B-)

I shall. After Kizenryuu, I'm on a roll.

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Gooner    5

Hi,

I have two questions:

Who wiil be the east yokozuna in Aki? Is 3-3-9 and 3-1-11 judged as the same score?

Will Hoshoryu and Naya both be in Makushita next basho? I feel like Naya could end up at Sd1 as well as at Ms60? Or are these two certain promotions?

Thx.

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Asashosakari    11,156

That reminds me, my juryo and makushita guesses.

Arawashi (M12w 5-10)     J1   Aminishiki (J4w 9-6)
Meisei (M16w 6-9)        J2   Yago (J8w 10-5)
Daishoho (J5e 8-7)       J3   Akiseyama (J1w 6-9)
Daiamami (J2e 6-9)       J4   Kyokushuho (J6w 8-7)
Takagenji (J2w 6-9)      J5   Kotoeko (M14e 3-12)
Hidenoumi (J5w 7-8)      J6   Takekaze (J1e 4-11)
Chiyonoo (J11e 9-6)      J7   Tsurugisho (J7e 7-8)
Wakatakakage (J12e 9-6)  J8   Shimanoumi (J8e 7-8)
Seiro (J6e 6-9)          J9   Terutsuyoshi (J10w 8-7)
Hakuyozan (Ms1e 7-0 Y)   J10  Tobizaru (J13w 9-6)
Mitoryu (J11w 8-7)       J11  Tokushoryu (J9e 7-8)
Chiyonoumi (J12w 8-7)    J12  Gagamaru (J9w 7-8)
Azumaryu (J7w 5-10)      J13  Enho (Ms2w 5-2)
Jokoryu (Ms5e 4-3)       J14  Akua (Ms5w 4-3)

Kizenryu (J13e 6-9)         Ms1   Toyonoshima (Ms7w 5-2)
Tamaki (Ms9e 5-2)           Ms2   Irodori (Ms6w 4-3)
Daiseido (Ms13e 6-1)        Ms3   Tomokaze (Ms10e 5-2)
Churanoumi (J14w 5-10)      Ms4   Toyohibiki (Ms14w 6-1)
Gokushindo (Ms2e 3-4)       Ms5   Ichiyamamoto (Ms3e 3-4)
Kiribayama (Ms3w 3-4)       Ms6   Homarefuji (J14e 3-12)
Wakatakamoto (Ms10w 4-3)    Ms7   Higonojo (Ms11w 4-3)
Nakazono (Ms16w 5-2)        Ms8   Sokokurai (J10e 0-0-15)
Shiba (Ms12w 4-3)           Ms9   Keitenkai (Ms18e 5-2)
Tokushinho (Ms16e 4-3)      Ms10  Sagatsukasa (Ms7e 3-4)
Kagamio (Sd11w 7-0 Y)       Ms11  Tenkaiho (Ms22w 5-2)
Chiyoarashi (Ms17e 4-3)     Ms12  Daishoryu (Ms24e 5-2)
Wakamotoharu (Ms4w 2-5)     Ms13  Tomisakae (Ms34w 6-1)
Kotokamatani (Ms19e 4-3)    Ms14  Kotokuzan (Ms19w 4-3)
Dewahayate (Ms9w 3-4)       Ms15  Kansei (Ms37w 6-1)

Akinoyama (Ms26w 5-2)       Ms16  Horyuyama (Ms21w 4-3)
Nionoumi (Ms22e 4-3)        Ms17  Akinohana (Ms11e 3-4)
Ryuko (Ms41w 6-1)           Ms18  Tochihiryu (Ms12e 3-4)
Karatsuumi (Ms29e 5-2)      Ms19  Kotodaigo (Ms8e 2-5)
Kitaharima (Ms8w 2-5)       Ms20  Satoyama (Ms14e 3-4)
Fujiazuma (Ms31e 5-2)       Ms21  Takayoshitoshi (Ms49w 6-1)
Tsurubayashi (Ms28e 4-3)    Ms22  Kotoinagaki (Ms28w 4-3)
Midorifuji (Ms36e 5-2)      Ms23  Koba (Ms29w 4-3)
Kizakiumi (Ms54w 6-1)       Ms24  Ikegawa (Ms32e 4-3)
Chiyootori (Ms41e 5-2)      Ms25  Nankairiki (Ms35e 4-3)
Nogami (Ms44e 5-2)          Ms26  Asahiryu (Ms36w 4-3)
Kairyu (Ms20e 3-4)          Ms27  Takakento (Ms20w 3-4)
Bushozan (Ms46e 5-2)        Ms28  Ryusei (Ms21e 3-4)
Kaito (Ms15e 2-5)           Ms29  Asahisho (Ms38e 4-3)
Tochinobori (Ms39w 4-3)     Ms30  Kiseoka (Ms40e 4-3)

Hisanotora (Ms23w 3-4)      Ms31  Murata (Ms1w 0-4-3)
Hamayutaka (Ms51w 5-2)      Ms32  Kaisho (Ms42e 4-3)
Aomihama (Ms25e 3-4)        Ms33  Asakishin (Ms25w 3-4)
Mugendai (Ms17w 2-5)        Ms34  Ayanoumi (Ms43w 4-3)
Tanabe (Ms27e 3-4)          Ms35  Fukuyama (Ms58e 5-2)
Takaryu (Ms47w 4-3)         Ms36  Okinofuji (Ms48w 4-3)
Oazuma (Ms30e 3-4)          Ms37  Masutoo (Ms30w 3-3-1)
Shonannoumi (Ms15w 1-6)     Ms38  Ryuseio (Sd16e 6-1)
Nishikifuji (Ms23e 2-5)     Ms39  Chiyosakae (Ms50e 4-3)
Komakiryu (Sd17w 6-1)       Ms40  Ikeru (Sd1w 5-2)
Irie (Ms24w 2-5)            Ms41  Obamaumi (Sd3e 5-2)
Musashikuni (Ms33e 3-4)     Ms42  Hokaho (Ms33w 3-4)
Tsushimanada (Ms52w 4-3)    Ms43  Higoarashi (Ms18w 1-6)
Gochozan (Ms34e 3-4)        Ms44  Asabenkei (Ms4e 0-0-7)
Hokutokawa (Ms54e 4-3)      Ms45  Yamaguchi (Ms26e 2-5)

Kirinofuji (Ms55e 4-3)      Ms46  Terunofuji (Ms6e 0-0-7)
Kihonoumi (Sd6w 5-2)        Ms47  Fukugoriki (Ms57e 4-3)
Kyokusoten (Ms39e 3-4)      Ms48  Amakaze (Ms13w 0-2-5)
Tochiseiryu (Ms31w 2-5)     Ms49  Mitotsukasa (Ms58w 4-3)
Genkaiho (Sd9w 5-2)         Ms50  Kotodairyu (Ms59w 4-3)
Chiyonokatsu (Ms60e 4-1-2)  Ms51  Oki (Ms42w 3-4)
Wakayama (Ms35w 2-5)        Ms52  Ichiki (Ms27w 1-6)
Komanokuni (Sd14w 5-2)      Ms53  Honda (Ms44w 3-4)
Aonosho (Ms45e 3-4)         Ms54  Hoshoryu (Sd42e 6-1)
Aozora (Sd5e 4-3)           Ms55  Terao (Ms37e 2-5)
Sakigake (Ms46w 3-4)        Ms56  Shosei (Ms38w 2-5)
Kototsubasa (Ms47e 3-4)     Ms57  Sasakiyama (Sd91e 7-0 D)
Shohoryu (Sd19e 5-2)        Ms58  Inoue (Sd7e 4-3)
Sadanosato (Sd7w 4-3)       Ms59  Kototebakari (Sd47e 6-1)
Wagurayama (Sd25e 5-2)      Ms60  Naya (Sd50w 6-1)

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Churaumi    104
18 hours ago, Gooner said:

Hi,

I have two questions:

Who wiil be the east yokozuna in Aki? Is 3-3-9 and 3-1-11 judged as the same score?

Will Hoshoryu and Naya both be in Makushita next basho? I feel like Naya could end up at Sd1 as well as at Ms60? Or are these two certain promotions?

Thx.

Kakuryu will probably be the east yokozuna, since he competed more days than Hakuho did. As for the two relative newbies, I’m going to say it’s a safe bet Hoshoryu will be makushita next basho. I think Naya will as well, because the kyokai probably wants to keep them together as long as possible. Rivalry is a big thing in sumo, and we don’t really have one right now, since Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku have fallen off. Plus, given the pedigrees of Naya and Hoshoryu, how could the sumo world not be watching intently? The kyokai is known for wackiness in promotions but I doubt they’d risk being seen as shortchanging either of them for now.

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Bumpkin    356

Ms49w Takayoshitoshi (6-1) only getting promoted to Ms21w? I would assume he will be at least Ms15w.

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Katooshu    585
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

Ms49w Takayoshitoshi (6-1) only getting promoted to Ms21w? I would assume he will be at least Ms15w.

The highest promotion there's been with that win/rank combo was up to Ms18, and that was 44 years and about 30 cases ago. Since then no one has been promoted higher than Ms20.

So a promotion to Ms15 or higher would be unprecedented by multiple ranks.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=ms49&form1_wins=6&form1_losses=1

Edited by Katooshu
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Gurowake    1,719
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Churaumi said:

Kakuryu will probably be the east yokozuna, since he competed more days than Hakuho did. As for the two relative newbies, I’m going to say it’s a safe bet Hoshoryu will be makushita next basho. I think Naya will as well, because the kyokai probably wants to keep them together as long as possible. Rivalry is a big thing in sumo, and we don’t really have one right now, since Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku have fallen off. Plus, given the pedigrees of Naya and Hoshoryu, how could the sumo world not be watching intently? The kyokai is known for wackiness in promotions but I doubt they’d risk being seen as shortchanging either of them for now.

6-1 in the top half of sandanme is practically a guarantee of promotion to Makushita.  They have severely overdemoted people to make room in the past for 6-1 Sd50s.  There are similar levels for all records that guarantee promotion to the next highest division that they sometimes have to brutally enforce.

Edited by Gurowake

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Gurowake    1,719
9 hours ago, Churaumi said:

Kakuryu will probably be the east yokozuna, since he competed more days than Hakuho did.

Why does you think this is relevant?  I mean, I could argue just as much that Hakuho will be East Yokozuna because he had a better win percentage.

Kakuryu will still most likely be Y1e just because he didn't have less wins than any other Yokozuna, the only thing that's seemed to matter in the past.

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Eikokurai    235
9 hours ago, Churaumi said:

Kakuryu will probably be the east yokozuna, since he competed more days than Hakuho did. As for the two relative newbies, I’m going to say it’s a safe bet Hoshoryu will be makushita next basho. I think Naya will as well, because the kyokai probably wants to keep them together as long as possible. Rivalry is a big thing in sumo, and we don’t really have one right now, since Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku have fallen off. Plus, given the pedigrees of Naya and Hoshoryu, how could the sumo world not be watching intently? The kyokai is known for wackiness in promotions but I doubt they’d risk being seen as shortchanging either of them for now.

Agree: re Kakuryu at Ye. He competed longer and he was coming off a back-to-back yusho so is clearly, on paper, the strongest Yokozuna on recent form.

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Gurowake    1,719
8 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Ms49w Takayoshitoshi (6-1) only getting promoted to Ms21w? I would assume he will be at least Ms15w.

6-1 into Ms15 requires you be ranked around Ms37.  Ms21 is average according to my historic data for 6-1 Ms49.  It's really hard to predict these things unless you've actually sat down and gathered all the data to see what exactly is good enough for what.

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Eikokurai    235
5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Why does you think this is relevant?  I mean, I could argue just as much that Hakuho will be East Yokozuna because he had a better win percentage.

Kakuryu will still most likely be Y1e just because he didn't have less wins than any other Yokozuna, the only thing that's seemed to matter in the past.

I don’t think either man put up conversation-changing numbers. Lacking any meaningful metric by which to separate Kakuryū and Hakuhō I believe they’ll just leave things as they were, with the former on top by virtue of his better recent form overall.

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Gurowake    1,719
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Lacking any meaningful metric by which to separate Kakuryū and Hakuhō I believe they’ll just leave things as they were

The only meaningful metric has historically been number of wins in the most recent basho, so in that sense you're right.  I vaguely recall there was a time when they wouldn't even switch the order of two Yokozuna that were in a playoff and the lower ranked one won, because only honwari matches "should" matter for the banzuke - the playoffs "should" just be for the title and money.

Edited by Gurowake
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Bumpkin    356
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

6-1 into Ms15 requires you be ranked around Ms37.  Ms21 is average according to my historic data for 6-1 Ms49.  It's really hard to predict these things unless you've actually sat down and gathered all the data to see what exactly is good enough for what.

If Ms49w Takayoshitoshi had gone 7-0, he would have been, I assume, promoted to at least Ms5w. There is, obviously, a difference between 6-1 and 7-0. I never realized, until now, what a big difference there was. Ms5w compared to Ms21w. Thank you, for your responses.

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Gurowake    1,719
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

If Ms49w Takayoshitoshi had gone 7-0, he would have been, I assume, promoted to at least Ms5w. There is, obviously, a difference between 6-1 and 7-0. I never realized, until now, what a big difference there was. Ms5w compared to Ms21w. Thank you, for your responses.

That's a large part of the reason why it's so hard to get into Juryo.  Most sekitori would lose a match or two in makushita if they were suddenly transported there, and a bad string of luck can get you stuck there quite a while (Shodai).  If you're good enough you'll eventually move up and be given twice as many matches to show how good you are, but in Makushita it's really rough only having 7 matches given how condensed the ranking gets - and here we're not even talking about the very top of the division.  That's why I've "suggested" that they give the top performers in Makushita two more matches so that they compete on all three of the last days when there are less lower division matches scheduled.  If they gave all the 6-0s and 5-1s going into Round 7 one more match each day (at least until they have 2 losses) instead of one total, Takayoshitoshi would probably have gone 8-1 and might reasonably have moved up into the extended promotion zone.  But losing that one match against the top-ranked guy who's heading into Juryo means that he can't possibly be promoted there himself next tournament.  Seems a bit drastic.

(Also, anyone who is in contention for Juryo would also get those matches to provide more information about who should go up, but that's not relevant to moving up from the bottom of the division which is the topic here.)

Edited by Gurowake
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