Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2018

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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)

Day 8 (results, text-only results):

Since only one of the leaders appears in the first ranking section, let's start with a yusho arasoi for a change:

8-0 Sw Mitakeumi
7-1 M6e Endo, M13w Asanoyama
6-2 O1w Takayasu, M6w Chiyotairyu, M13e Tochiozan

And now...

    3-3-2 Kakuryu       Y1   Hakuho       3-1-4
    kyujo Kisenosato    Y2
     5-3  Goeido        O1   Takayasu      6-2
                        O2   Tochinoshin  5-2-1

For the first time since Natsu 2006 some tournament days have had to pass without any yokozuna dohyo-iri, after both Hakuho (right leg) and Kakuryu (right elbow) joined Kisenosato on the sidelines. Ozeki Tochinoshin was also forced to withdraw with a toe injury, so we're finishing the first week with just 2 of the top 6 rikishi.

Both of these remaining high-rankers are kadoban ozeki, to boot, having missed/dropped out of the May tournament. Neither Goeido nor Takayasu have looked overly impressive thus far despite their positive records, though the depleted field should mean they're very likely to finish kachikoshi and defend their rank now.

The star of the basho has been one of the sekiwake, however. Mitakeumi is 8-0 for the first time in makuuchi following today's hard-fought victory over Chiyonokuni and has another prime opportunity for a breakout tournament if he can avoid collapsing the way he did six months ago, when he fell from 7-0 to 7-5 and an eventual 8-7 finish. Fellow sekiwake Ichinojo has been fighting rather listlessly on most days and finds himself down at 3-5 after showing almost zero offensive intentions against clever Takakeisho, who just out-waited the giant until he was able to attack him off-center.

Consequently the most likely rikishi to join Mitakeumi at sekiwake for September is komusubi Tamawashi for the moment, sporting an impressive 5-3 record with only ozeki Takayasu still to come as a sanyaku-ranked opponent tomorrow. Shohozan on the West side has had a significantly harder time in Nagoya and stands just one loss away from returning to the maegashira slots, having been able to defeat only Ichinojo so far.

Somewhat surprisingly for a basho with so few wins taken up by the sanyaku, things don't look that great among the top maegashira either; only Takakeisho (5-3) and Chiyonokuni (4-4, with those two yokozuna fusen) have non-negative records in the first three ranks. Kaisei, Endo and Chiyotairyu do have better W-L's further down, but they'll still get a dose of the sanyaku during the second week, so it's anybody's guess if they will be able to maintain course for a promotion to sanyaku themselves.

Endo figures into the yusho race regardless of his sanyaku ambitions, as does low-ranked Asanoyama who looks truly genki for perhaps the first time again after his 10-5 top division debut last September. He's not been getting tested against stiffer opposition yet, but it should not be long now - if he collects his kachikoshi tomorrow, a higher-ranked aite may await him by Day 11.

     3-5  Ichinojo      S    Mitakeumi     8-0
     5-3  Tamawashi     K    Shohozan      1-7

     2-6  Shodai        M1   Kotoshogiku   3-5
     3-5  Ikioi         M2   Chiyonokuni   4-4
     2-6  Abi           M3   Takakeisho    5-3
     5-3  Kaisei        M4   Kagayaki      3-5
     3-5  Daishomaru    M5
     7-1  Endo          M6   Chiyotairyu   6-2
     4-4  Takarafuji    M7   Daieisho      4-4
                        M8
     5-3  Myogiryu      M9   Yutakayama    5-3
                        M10
                        M11  Onosho        5-3
                        M12
     6-2  Tochiozan     M13  Asanoyama     7-1


Nagoya basho features two debutants in the top division, and neither has had it easy so far: Kotoeko and Meisei have only managed to collect two wins apiece, and it's looking almost certain that both will be taking a trip back to juryo for the next honbasho. All other rikishi may save themselves with a 3-4 second week, so the list of demotables could end up rather short this time. On first-week form the main candidates outside the two rookies are arguably sophomore Kyokutaisei, who has looked outclassed in the middle of the division, and veteran Yoshikaze, whose sumo has been completely devoid of any spark this basho, something rarely (if ever) seen from him before.

On the flipside, it doesn't seem as though the promotion race in juryo will be producing an excess of contenders anyway. Takanoiwa has been pacing the field at 7-1 in his third tournament since returning from his injury issues, but everybody else already needs to post a 4-3 finish at minimum to end with a credible record. 39-year-old Aminishiki surprises once again and stands at 6-2 - you look at his sumo and you think "why don't his opponents know what's coming, and if they do, why doesn't anybody know how to defend against it?" but for now it's working again, and he could well reset his own oldest-return-to-makuuchi record yet again. Kotoyuki also looks significantly improved and may be another candidate to secure a makuuchi return (but we've seen him turn bad at a day's notice often enough), while youngster Takanosho has a chance to crown his slow 5-basho ascent through juryo with the ticket to the top division for the first time.

                        M5   Yoshikaze     0-8  (2)
                        ...
(1)  3-5  Chiyoshoma    M8   Kyokutaisei   1-7  (3)
                        M9
(2)  3-5  Chiyomaru     M10  Nishikigi     4-4  (1)
(2)  3-5  Aoiyama       M11
(2)  4-4  Sadanoumi     M12  Arawashi      3-5  (3)
                        M13
(5)  2-6  Kotoeko       M14  Okinoumi      4-4  (3)
(3)  4-4  Ishiura       M15  Ryuden        4-4  (3)
(3)  5-3  Hokutofuji    M16  Meisei        2-6  (6)

(6)  2-6  Takekaze      J1   Akiseyama     1-7  (7)
(5)  4-4  Daiamami      J2   Takagenji     3-5  (6)
(4)  5-3  Kotoyuki      J3   Takanoiwa     7-1  (2)
(4)  6-2  Takanosho     J4   Aminishiki    6-2  (4)
(6)  4-4  Daishoho      J5   Hidenoumi     4-4  (6)
(7)  4-4  Seiro         J6   Kyokushuho    5-3  (6)
(7)  4-4  Tsurugisho    J7   Azumaryu      4-4  (7)
(~)  4-4  Shimanoumi    J8   Yago          5-3  (7)
                        J9
                        J10  Terutsuyoshi  5-3  (~)
(~)  5-3  Chiyonoo      J11  Mitoryu       5-3  (~)

 

The juryo ranks include two newcomers as well, and their fortunes have come together rather differently through Day 8. Chiyonoumi has seemed completely at home, fighting well even in his losses, but Churanoumi's sumo has been looking just a bit short of juryo quality against nearly every opponent, and if you don't catch any lucky breaks either, that means a 1-7 record like he's sporting right now. He'll need to run the table through week two to avoid getting demoted, and it sure doesn't look like that's going to happen.

Kizenryu, the sole juryo returnee in Nagoya, unfortunately won't be picking up that elusive KK in his 9th attempt either in all likelihood. Veteran Homarefuji also finds himself in great danger, and in fact it's the second time running as he started off Natsu basho 2-9 and needed three late wins and a load of banzuke luck just to stick around for this basho. At 3-5 (and one of those wins a fusensho, to boot) it's looking pretty bad for him. All other lower juryo rikishi appear on course to maintain their spots, with the possible exception of Tokushoryu whose 2-6 record might even flatter him a bit, based on the low quality of his performances...the needed 3-4 finish isn't quite a given for him, although I suspect that he'll unleash his veteran powers and do enough to stay in the end.

Definitely headed down is Sokokurai whose full kyujo due to a persistent foot injury will be sending him to makushita or intai, ending a six-year sekitori career (not counting the two-year layoff).

The top 5 makushita ranks started off the tournament in depleted fashion with juryo-demoted Asabenkei kyujo right away, and highly regarded Murata also had to drop out in the meantime with an apparent knee injury, having gone winless before. Hakuyozan, who didn't receive the same banzuke luck courtesy as Homarefuji, has been making a strong case for an immediate return and finds himself kachikoshi already. Enho also appears in good shape and will likely need to add just one more victory to his 3-1 tally to secure a return to juryo as well. The rest of the top 5 ranks look somewhat iffy. We could be in for some additional promotions from lower than usual, with Ms6w Irodori perhaps able to take advantage of the promotion zoners' weak results, while 9-year makuuchi veteran Toyohibiki has a shot at securing the promotion via yusho as he attempts to battle back from his untimely arrhythmia problems that caused his demotion from juryo back in January.

(1)  4-4  Shimanoumi    J8
(3)  2-6  Tokushoryu    J9   Gagamaru      3-5  (2)
(x) kyujo Sokokurai     J10  Terutsuyoshi  5-3  (1)
(1)  5-3  Chiyonoo      J11  Mitoryu       5-3  (1)
(2)  5-3  Wakatakakage  J12  Chiyonoumi    5-3  (2)
(5)  2-6  Kizenryu      J13  Tobizaru      5-3  (2)
(5)  3-5  Homarefuji    J14  Churanoumi    1-7  (7)

     4-0  Hakuyozan     Ms1  Murata        0-4  (x)
     2-3  Gokushindo    Ms2  Enho          3-1
     1-3  Ichiyamamoto  Ms3  Kiribayama    2-2
(x) kyujo Asabenkei     Ms4  Wakamotoharu  1-3
     3-1  Jokoryu       Ms5  Akua          2-2
(x) kyujo Terunofuji    Ms6  Irodori       3-1
                        ...
                        Ms14 Toyohibiki    4-0
 

Explanation of symbols used:

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck

Edited by Asashosakari
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Rocks    899

One of my favorite threads...

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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)

Juryo yusho race:

7-1 J3w Takanoiwa
6-2 J4e Takanosho, J4w Aminishiki
5-3 J3e Kotoyuki, J6w Kyokushuho, J8w Yago, J10w Terutsuyoshi, J11e Chiyonoo, J11w Mitoryu, J12e Wakatakakage, J12w Chiyonoumi, J13w Tobizaru

High-ranked frontrunners and low-ranked pursuers is the name of the game in juryo so far; half the rikishi in the lower half of the division stand at 5-3. It remains to be seen if the top 3 are gonna run away with it, or if they'll give up enough losses to make this race a real free-for-all. Kotoyuki and Chiyonoumi would be my picks among the 5-3's to potentially play a role, the others have all been too up and down in their sumo quality in my opinion.

Not many head-to-head meetings among these 12 tomorrow, however. Only Aminishiki (6-2) - Kotoyuki (5-3) and Terutsuyoshi - Chiyonoo (both 5-3) have been matched up, and those are still the result of simple pairings of rikishi with nearby ranks. We shouldn't be far away from seeing some more results-based matching, though.

Lower division yusho races (Day 7/8 results and links to video where available):

4-0 Ms1e Hakuyozan (Takadagawa)
4-0 Ms14w Toyohibiki (Sakaigawa)
4-0 Ms22w Tenkaiho (Onoe)
4-0 Ms24e Daishoryu (Oitekaze)
4-0 Ms34w Tomisakae (Isegahama)
4-0 Ms41w Ryuko (Onoe)
4-0 Ms49w Takayoshitoshi (Takanohana)
4-0 Ms60e Chiyonokatsu (Kokonoe)

4-0 Sd11w Kagamio (Kagamiyama)
4-0 Sd17w Komakiryu (Kise)
4-0 Sd26e Byakko (Azumazeki)
4-0 Sd32e Dairaido (Takadagawa)
4-0 Sd47e Kototebakari (Sadogatake)
4-0 Sd50w Naya (Otake)
4-0 Sd61e Saio (Nishikido)
4-0 Sd65w Tochimaru (Kasugano)
4-0 Sd76e Hokutoshu (Hakkaku)
4-0 Sd86e Torakio (Naruto)
4-0 Sd91e Sasakiyama (Kise)

4-0 Jd1e Kamiyutaka (Tokitsukaze)
4-0 Jd10w Shuji (Kise)
4-0 Jd17w Wakayamanaka (Nishonoseki)
4-0 Jd22w Ariake (Isenoumi)
4-0 Jd35w Sadanohikari (Sakaigawa)
4-0 Jd39w Hokutohana (Hakkaku)
4-0 Jd46e Kawamoto (Kasugano)
4-0 Jd59w Sakaefuji (Sakaigawa)
4-0 Jd71e Daishosei (Oitekaze)
4-0 Jd74w Fukazawa (Yamahibiki)
4-0 Jd81e Rao (Tatsunami)
4-0 Jd89e Sekizuka (Tagonoura)
4-0 Jd100w Sakura (Takadagawa)
4-0 Jd106e Terunosato (Tagonoura)

4-0 Jk8w Takemaru (Miyagino)
4-0 Jk11w Kaishin (Tagonoura)
4-0 Jk28e Tsushida (Tokitsukaze)
4-0 Jk29w Roman (Tatsunami)

No shortage of interesting stories among these 37 yusho contenders, that's for sure. 8 unbeaten rikishi in makushita so it should be a straight knockout for the yusho here now, barring the (rather unlikely) possibility of both Onoe rikishi Tenkaiho and Ryuko coming through to 6-0.

None of these 8 has won yusho in makushita before, including the four former sekitori Hakuyozan (fresh off his failed juryo debut), Toyohibiki (11 years as sekitori), Tenkaiho (5 years as sekitori but now already 2 years stuck in makushita), and Takayoshitoshi (on the fast track back up if he can keep from beating somebody up until senshuraku). 20-year-old top prospect Ryuko is certainly worth keeping an eye on for a possible breakout tournament here, while the remaining trio Daishoryu, Tomisakae and Chiyonokatsu are all oldish perennial lower-rankers.

Kizakiumi hasn't managed to be part of the yusho race for long this time around after he lost on Day 5 already.

Four highly-regarded rookies have taken position in the upper half of sandanme for this basho, and while Hoshoryu (3-1 after an opening loss) and Tsukahara (only 1-3) fell off the pace early, we do find Kototsukahara Kototebakari and Naya competing for the yusho, at least to this point.

They're joined (among others) by various injury returnees: Former maegashira Kagamio had to depart in the middle of the March tournament and then missed May completely, and former top prospect Tochimaru also didn't show up for Natsu (but something was probably wrong even before, when he inexplicably went 5-16 across three basho). In addition there's upper makushita mainstay Sasakiyama in his second basho back after missing four in a row; he'll be dangerous from lowest sandanme where he can avoid the top contenders until the very end. And last not least there's also newish Bulgarian Torakio, who's still trying to find his footing in sumo technique-wise but has already had to deal with some injury woes.

Shuji is an upper-sandanme quality rikishi who won the jonokuchi yusho last time after taking three 0-0-7 demotions, and it's no surprise that he's in the midst of the jonidan race now as well. Rao and Sadanohikari are yet more underranked contenders, who were both forced to skip two tournaments. And in the middle ranks of the division we find three contenders fresh off their entry into ozumo. Takushoku University's Kawamoto went 6-1 in his banzuke debut last time and is certainly a top candidate at this level, with Daishosei and Fukazawa only 5-2 last time but being (younger) high school grads.

Two highly unexpected names in the jonidan race are arguably Sekizuka and Sakura, whose previous forum presence came as part of the Persistence Watch a long time ago: Sekizuka started off his career with 12 straight makekoshi back in 2013-15, Sakura's stint was even further back in 2003-05 with 15 MK.

A current persister can be found in the jonokuchi field, in fact, with the freshly renamed Takemaru (formerly Nakano), whose 4-0 has now turned around his 5-MK career start. Kaishin hasn't been in sumo for long either, with only marginally more success so far, while Tsushida and Roman are in their very first ranked tournament. Tsushida came in with some fanfare last basho, so he's almost certainly the favourite here.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Bumpkin    356

Shouldn't Ms1e Hakuyozan have a "(0)" in front of his name?

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Asashosakari    11,156
21 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Shouldn't Ms1e Hakuyozan have a "(0)" in front of his name?

As long as a low-ranked 7-0 is possible I consider that rikishi to be the virtual #1 in the promotion queue.

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Rocks    899
7 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

As long as a low-ranked 7-0 is possible I consider that rikishi to be the virtual #1 in the promotion queue.

That could have been Jokoryu! :'-(

In any case it looks like at least 3, if not 4, to go down so if Joker can get to at least 5 wins he still has a good shot. 

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orandashoho    531
44 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Takayoshitoshi (on the fast track back up if he can keep from beating somebody up until senshuraku).

(Laughing...)

Any idea why Ariake and Sadanohikari are the only yusho contenders left off the torikumi tomorrow?

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Asashosakari    11,156

The 35 former sekitori through the first week: 4 full kyujo and one mid-basho withdrawal have reduced the competing field to just 30, but 6 of 'em being on 4-0 is nice to see.

Notes in the opening post in the basho banzuke thread.
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out
4-0 Ms1e Hakuyozan Takadagawa 23 1
3-1 Ms2w Enho Miyagino 23 2
kyujo Ms4e Asabenkei Takasago 29 1
3-1 Ms5e Jokoryu Kise 29 13
2-2 Ms5w Akua Tatsunami 27 3
 
kyujo Ms6e Terunofuji Isegahama 26 1
2-2 Ms7e Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 36 26
2-2 Ms7w Toyonoshima Tokitsukaze 35 11
0-4 Ms8w Kitaharima Yamahibiki 31 5
2-2 Ms9w Dewahayate Dewanoumi 29 12
2-2 Ms11w Higonojo Kise 33 25
3-1 Ms12e Tochihiryu Kasugano 31 3
3-1 Ms13e Daiseido Kise 25 4
0-2-2 Ms13w Amakaze Oguruma 27 2
1-3 Ms14e Satoyama Onoe 37 6
4-0 Ms14w Toyohibiki Sakaigawa 33 3
 
2-2 Ms16e Tokushinho Kise 34 16
2-2 Ms17e Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 27 30
3-1 Ms18e Keitenkai Onomatsu 28 35
2-2 Ms22e Nionoumi Yamahibiki 31 30
4-0 Ms22w Tenkaiho Onoe 33 13
1-3 Ms26e Yamaguchi Miyagino 29 3
 
3-1 Ms31e Fujiazuma Tamanoi 31 8
2-2 Ms38e Asahisho Tomozuna 28 7
2-2 Ms41e Chiyootori Kokonoe 25 4
1-3 Ms46w Sakigake Shibatayama 32 21
1-3 Ms47w Takaryu Kise 26 18
4-0 Ms49w Takayoshitoshi Takanohana 21 2
 
4-0 Sd11w Kagamio Kagamiyama 30 13
kyujo Sd13w Masunoyama Chiganoura 27 20
kyujo Sd30w Ura Kise 26 3
4-0 Sd32e Dairaido Takadagawa 38 71
3-1 Sd41e Hitenryu Tatsunami 34 41
2-2 Sd72e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 41 23
3-1 Sd73e Kaonishiki Azumazeki 39 41


Kitaharima in danger of finishing worse than 3-4 in makushita for the first time since Natsu 2011.

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Gurowake    1,719
2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

4-0 Sd11w Kagamio (Kagamiyama)
4-0 Sd17w Komakiryu (Kise)
4-0 Sd26e Byakko (Azumazeki)
4-0 Sd32e Dairaido (Takadagawa)
4-0 Sd47e Kototebakari (Sadogatake)
4-0 Sd50w Naya (Otake)
4-0 Sd61e Saio (Nishikido)
4-0 Sd65w Tochimaru (Kasugano)
4-0 Sd76e Hokutoshu (Hakkaku)
4-0 Sd86e Torakio (Naruto)
4-0 Sd91e Sasakiyama (Kise)

 

Four highly-regarded rookies have taken position in the upper half of sandanme for this basho, and while Hoshoryu (3-1 after an opening loss) and Tsukahara (only 1-3) fell off the pace early, we do find Kototsukahara and Naya competing for the yusho, at least to this point.

I'm guessing you meant Kototebakari.

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Gurowake    1,719
2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

As long as a low-ranked 7-0 is possible I consider that rikishi to be the virtual #1 in the promotion queue.

As opposed to the only time when an Ms15TD went 7-0 and lost one of the two promotion slots to a 4-3 Ms1w?

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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'm guessing you meant Kototebakari.

Indeed, thanks. Kototsukahara can only wish to be involved in sandanme, let alone its yusho race...
 

19 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

As opposed to the only time when an Ms15TD went 7-0 and lost one of the two promotion slots to a 4-3 Ms1w?

As their excuse was that he wasn't actually within the top 15 ranks with his tsukedashi designation, I don't take that case as evidence of anything when it comes to those who are within.
 

2 hours ago, orandashoho said:

Any idea why Ariake and Sadanohikari are the only yusho contenders left off the torikumi tomorrow?

Nope.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Gurowake    1,719
Just now, Asashosakari said:

As their excuse was that he wasn't actually within the top 15 ranks with his tsukedashi designation, I don't take that case as evidence of anything when it comes to those who are within.

Eh?  I brought up that point at some point in time because Wikipedia said "top 30 in Makushita" were automatic, and someone replied and said that the Ms15TD was promoted partially as being only one basho from Juryo.  So they changed their minds on that, I guess?

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Gurowake    1,719
3 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Indeed, thanks. Kototsukahara can only wish to be involved in sandanme, let alone its yusho race...

Oh wow, I didn't even realize there *was* a Kototsukahara.  I doubt his existence had much to do with why you typed it there, so that's kinda random.

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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Eh?  I brought up that point at some point in time because Wikipedia said "top 30 in Makushita" were automatic, and someone replied and said that the Ms15TD was promoted partially as being only one basho from Juryo.  So they changed their minds on that, I guess?

You're assuming that they're not just making it up as needed? In any case, there was half a decade between the introduction of Ms15Td and Shimoda's non-promotion - I doubt any company would feel beholden to its old marketing lines after that much time.

The next tsukedashi to go 7-0 will probably be promoted, simply because there are normally enough slots to do so. But either way it's not applicable as precedent to those who hold a "real" Ms15-and-up ranking.
 

58 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Oh wow, I didn't even realize there *was* a Kototsukahara.  I doubt his existence had much to do with why you typed it there, so that's kinda random.

Obviously the other Tsukahara was the main cause of that error, but I'm certainly more likely to mix up actually existing shikona that I've seen before than to make up a wrong one altogether. (In other words, yes, I already did know there's a guy by that name, although I had to look up which banzuke area he's currently fighting in.)

Edited by Asashosakari

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Gurowake    1,719

If I look at my Sandanme game entry, without knowing that obviously all the shikona on it are current rikishi, I wouldn't necessarily be able to say one way or another whether half of them are current shikona (some of them, like Naya, obviously, but other random guys not so much).  A low jonidan rikishi who isn't a persister I probably never made any notice of before.  If I randomly typed the wrong set of syllables that might be used, there's very little reason I'd be able to tell whether it was a current shikona unless I happened to actually have paid attention to someone with that shikona recently.

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Ack!    92

I think it may be tough to find enough promotees from Makushita to match the number of likely demotees in Juryo.  I'm not holding my breath for Jokoryu, since he typically fades later in the basho.  However with the potential for tremendous banzuke luck, he could just make it.

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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)

Day 9 (results, text-only results):

Yusho arasoi:

9-0 Sw Mitakeumi
8-1 M13w Asanoyama
7-2 O1w Takayasu, M6e Endo, M13e Tochiozan
 

    3-3-3 Kakuryu       Y1   Hakuho       3-1-5
    kyujo Kisenosato    Y2
     6-3  Goeido        O1   Takayasu      7-2
                        O2   Tochinoshin  5-2-2

Both ozeki Goeido and Takayasu were in major trouble and on the verge of losing today, but somehow managed to slip past their opponents Kagayaki and Tamawashi to pick up the shiroboshi after all. Takayasu maintains his spot as a sort-of pursuer in the yusho race, but continues to trail by two: Sekiwake Mitakeumi had by far the most convincing performance among the high-rankers today and easily dispatched of Daishomaru to collect his 9th straight win.

The 7-1 contenders went their opposite ways as Endo lost a fun slapper battle to Yutakayama, while Asanoyama clinched his kachikoshi quickly against Ishiura. The 6-2's were also decimated with Chiyotairyu's loss to demotion-threatened Kyokutaisei.

Komusubi Shohozan staved off the demotion for now, overwhelming Shodai (who just plain seems to lack enough horsepower for the high ranks), but Ichinojo moved a step closer to makekoshi as even Kaisei proved too much for him in whatever his current condition happens to be. Takakeisho remains the #1 candidate for promotion into sanyaku and had the good fortune to be matched with still-winless Yoshikaze today.

     3-6  Ichinojo      S    Mitakeumi     9-0
     5-4  Tamawashi     K    Shohozan      2-7

     2-7  Shodai        M1   Kotoshogiku   3-6
     4-5  Ikioi         M2   Chiyonokuni   5-4
     2-7  Abi           M3   Takakeisho    6-3
     6-3  Kaisei        M4   Kagayaki      3-6
     3-6  Daishomaru    M5
     7-2  Endo          M6   Chiyotairyu   6-3
     4-5  Takarafuji    M7   Daieisho      4-5
                        M8
     6-3  Myogiryu      M9   Yutakayama    6-3
                        M10
                        M11  Onosho        5-4  (x)
                        M12
     7-2  Tochiozan     M13  Asanoyama     8-1


Rookies Kotoeko and Meisei unfortunately continue to pile up the losses, today against Sadanoumi and Tochiozan, and at 2-7 their makekoshi and subsequent demotions are fast becoming unavoidable. Arawashi, Okinoumi and Ishiura were all unsuccessful on Day 9 as well and will need to win at least half their remaining bouts now - chances are that (at least) one of them will fail and find himself in juryo for September. Good-luck kid Nishikigi isn't gonna have to rely on the banzuke committee this time, however, having collected the last needed win after opponent Daieisho decided to channel his inner Kakuryu and go for a highly ill-advised pull attempt.

Takanoiwa has become the first juryo rikishi to reach kachikoshi territory today and is nearly certain to return to the top division for Aki, one year after he was last active up there. Kotoyuki and Aminishiki had a battle among further promotion contenders, won decisively by the younger Sadogatake man. Takanosho was also victorious and is looking more and more likely to make his makuuchi debut in two months' time. Recently demoted Daiamami has turned his basho around from 2-4 to 5-4 and might be able to have a word in the promotion race as well, after all.

                        M5   Yoshikaze     0-9  (2)
                        ...
(1)  3-6  Chiyoshoma    M8   Kyokutaisei   2-7  (2)
                        M9
(1)  4-5  Chiyomaru     M10  Nishikigi     5-4  (o)
(1)  4-5  Aoiyama       M11
(1)  5-4  Sadanoumi     M12  Arawashi      3-6  (3)
                        M13
(5)  2-7  Kotoeko       M14  Okinoumi      4-5  (3)
(3)  4-5  Ishiura       M15  Ryuden        5-4  (2)
(2)  6-3  Hokutofuji    M16  Meisei        2-7  (6)

(6)  2-7  Takekaze      J1   Akiseyama     2-7  (6)
(4)  5-4  Daiamami      J2   Takagenji     4-5  (5)
(3)  6-3  Kotoyuki      J3   Takanoiwa     8-1  (1)
(3)  7-2  Takanosho     J4   Aminishiki    6-3  (4)
(5)  5-4  Daishoho      J5   Hidenoumi     4-5  (6)
(~)  4-5  Seiro         J6   Kyokushuho    5-4  (6)
(~)  4-5  Tsurugisho    J7   Azumaryu      4-5  (~)
(~)  5-4  Shimanoumi    J8   Yago          5-4  (~)
                        J9
                        J10  Terutsuyoshi  5-4  (x)
(~)  6-3  Chiyonoo      J11  Mitoryu       6-3  (~)


Still no potential demotees in lower juryo aside from absent Sokokurai; bottom-ranked debutant Churanoumi had to fight hard against big Yago but eventually came away with the victory. Kizenryu was forced to join him at 2-7, however, losing to a nifty ashitori by makushita visitor Enho, who clinched kachikoshi with that and now looks very likely to return to the second division.

Kizenryu needs to win 5 out of 6 to stay, and so does Homarefuji who battled well against Mitoryu but wasn't able to pull off the win. Mitoryu himself is now safe, alongside Shimanoumi (beat Chiyonoumi) and Chiyonoo (defeated Terutsuyoshi).

Several other makushita denizens were also on the dohyo aside from Enho. Toyohibiki sadly did what Toyohibiki does best, dominate a bout and then get turned around by his opponent at the edge. That opponent was Hakuyozan who not only stays in the yusho race but also "officially" secured his return to the juryo ranks today. Akua defeated Kiribayama in head-to-head promotion action, putting both roughly even in the race now, while Ichiyamamoto avoided his possible career-first makekoshi for the moment with victory over lower-ranked Kotodaigo.

(o)  5-4  Shimanoumi    J8
(2)  3-6  Tokushoryu    J9   Gagamaru      4-5  (1)
(x) kyujo Sokokurai     J10  Terutsuyoshi  5-4  (1)
(o)  6-3  Chiyonoo      J11  Mitoryu       6-3  (o)
(2)  5-4  Wakatakakage  J12  Chiyonoumi    5-4  (2)
(5)  2-7  Kizenryu      J13  Tobizaru      5-4  (2)
(5)  3-6  Homarefuji    J14  Churanoumi    2-7  (6)

(o)  5-0  Hakuyozan     Ms1
     2-3  Gokushindo    Ms2  Enho          4-1
     2-3  Ichiyamamoto  Ms3  Kiribayama    2-3
                        Ms4  Wakamotoharu  1-3
     3-1  Jokoryu       Ms5  Akua          3-2
                        Ms6  Irodori       3-1
                        ...
                        Ms14 Toyohibiki    4-1  (x)

Ichiyamamoto also fills in the juryo schedule tomorrow and thus gets an early 6th bout; his aite will be Chiyonoumi, straight according to rank. Churanoumi's survival chops will be tested by Azumaryu this time, and Kizenryu tries to avoid the MK against Tsurugisho.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)

Juryo yusho race:

8-1 J3w Takanoiwa
7-2 J4e Takanosho
6-3 J3e Kotoyuki, J4w Aminishiki, J11e Chiyonoo, J11w Mitoryu

Big clean-out among the 5-3's where no less than five more rikishi joined the loser of Chiyonoo -Terutsuyoshi (it was the latter) in dropping to 5-4. That's now three wins off the pace as Takanoiwa secured his kachikoshi. Takanosho is the new sole pursuer after Aminishiki was pulled into the reduced 6-3 group by Kotoyuki.

 

The Day 10 matches for this half-dozen of contenders:

J4e Takanosho (7-2) - J8w Yago (5-4)

J4w Aminishiki (6-3) - J3w Takanoiwa (8-1)

J11e Chiyonoo (6-3) - J14e Homarefuji (3-6)
J11w Mitoryu (6-3) - J10w Terutsuyoshi (5-4)
J3e Kotoyuki (6-3) - J9w Gagamaru (4-5)

 

Lower division yusho races (Day 9/10 results and links to video where available...this post is late enough now that I might as well include Sadanohikari-Ariake from Day 10):

5-0 Ms1e Hakuyozan (Takadagawa)
4-1 Ms14w Toyohibiki (Sakaigawa)
4-1 Ms22w Tenkaiho (Onoe)
5-0 Ms24e Daishoryu (Oitekaze)
5-0 Ms34w Tomisakae (Isegahama)
4-1 Ms41w Ryuko (Onoe)
5-0 Ms49w Takayoshitoshi (Takanohana)
4-1 Ms60e Chiyonokatsu (Kokonoe)

5-0 Sd11w Kagamio (Kagamiyama)
4-1 Sd17w Komakiryu (Kise)
5-0 Sd26e Byakko (Azumazeki)
4-1 Sd32e Dairaido (Takadagawa)
5-0 Sd47e Kototebakari (Sadogatake)
4-1 Sd50w Naya (Otake)
5-0 Sd61e Saio (Nishikido)
4-1 Sd65w Tochimaru (Kasugano)
4-1 Sd76e Hokutoshu (Hakkaku)
5-0 Sd86e Torakio (Naruto)
5-0 Sd91e Sasakiyama (Kise)

4-1 Jd1e Kamiyutaka (Tokitsukaze)
5-0 Jd10w Shuji (Kise)
4-1 Jd17w Wakayamanaka (Nishonoseki)
4-1 Jd22w Ariake (Isenoumi)
5-0 Jd35w Sadanohikari (Sakaigawa)
4-1 Jd39w Hokutohana (Hakkaku)
5-0 Jd46e Kawamoto (Kasugano)
4-1 Jd59w Sakaefuji (Sakaigawa)
5-0 Jd71e Daishosei (Oitekaze)
4-1 Jd74w Fukazawa (Yamahibiki)
5-0 Jd81e Rao (Tatsunami)
4-1 Jd89e Sekizuka (Tagonoura)
5-0 Jd100w Sakura (Takadagawa)
5-0 Jd106e Terunosato (Tagonoura)

4-1 Jk8w Takemaru (Miyagino)
4-1 Jk11w Kaishin (Tagonoura)
5-0 Jk28e Tsushida (Tokitsukaze)
5-0 Jk29w Roman (Tatsunami)

The higher-division aite won in both the Sd-Jd (Sasakiyama-Kamiyutaka) and Jd-Jk (Terunosato-Takemaru) pairings, and in addition lowest-ranked Roman beat his 3-1 opponent, so we're down to 19 zensho contenders with a 4 / 6 / 7 / 2 divisional split.

That should mean yet another 1-loss matchup for Roman, already his fourth, while Tsushida goes into jonidan and presumably takes 40-year-old Terunosato out of the races. The matches have yet to be confirmed, of course, but it would be surprising if they deviated from the ranking order.

Arguably no favourites stumbled in their fifth round matches, with the possible exception of Tochimaru who lost to Saio, a 29-year-old who has never seen makushita. The Kototebakari-Naya matchup of course had to see a bigger name miss out.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Pandaazuma    886
Posted (edited)

Day 9, mate. ;)

Edited by Pandaazuma
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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

Day 9, mate. ;)

Fixed. Not the first time I missed one of the three numbers to change in that line. Now remove that full-quote, will ya. ;-)

Edited by Asashosakari
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Rocks    899

Well, Jokoryu lost again but he may get some banzuke luck this basho. With it now very likely 3 and as many as 4 Juryo dropping and only 2 ahead of him on the banzuke looking likely to KK his next match against Akua will probably decide which of them gets promoted.

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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)

Juryo yusho race:

9-1 J3w Takanoiwa
8-2 J4e Takanosho
7-3 J3e Kotoyuki, J11e Chiyonoo

And the list of conceivable yusho contenders continues to dwindle. Two-off pursuer Aminishiki wasn't able to derail leader Takanoiwa and is likely out of the race at 6-4, and Mitoryu also fell off the pace in a hikkake-like defeat by Terutsuyoshi (called oshidashi though). Takanosho maintained his spot as the top pursuer, but had to survive a very close finish + mono-ii against Yago. Kotoyuki is also still giving chase, having beaten Gagamaru in a nice big-man shoving fest, and so is Chiyonoo who prevailed against bottom-ranked Homarefuji.

The Day 11 matches for the leaders:

J10w Terutsuyoshi (6-4) - J3w Takanoiwa (9-1)

J4e Takanosho (8-2) - J11e Chiyonoo (7-3)

J3e Kotoyuki (7-3) - J9e Tokushoryu (3-7)


Lower division yusho races (list cleaned up, nothing new):

5-0 Ms1e Hakuyozan (Takadagawa)
5-0 Ms24e Daishoryu (Oitekaze)
5-0 Ms34w Tomisakae (Isegahama)
5-0 Ms49w Takayoshitoshi (Takanohana)

5-0 Sd11w Kagamio (Kagamiyama)
5-0 Sd26e Byakko (Azumazeki)
5-0 Sd47e Kototebakari (Sadogatake)
5-0 Sd61e Saio (Nishikido)
5-0 Sd86e Torakio (Naruto)
5-0 Sd91e Sasakiyama (Kise)

5-0 Jd10w Shuji (Kise)
5-0 Jd35w Sadanohikari (Sakaigawa)
5-0 Jd46e Kawamoto (Kasugano)
5-0 Jd71e Daishosei (Oitekaze)
5-0 Jd81e Rao (Tatsunami)
5-0 Jd100w Sakura (Takadagawa)
5-0 Jd106e Terunosato (Tagonoura)

5-0 Jk28e Tsushida (Tokitsukaze)
5-0 Jk29w Roman (Tatsunami)

No surprises with the matchups for Day 11 - it's all the expected pairings straight down the rankings, plus Roman against a 4-1 opponent (tying a record in the process). They did go big in making that match, as Roman has to go up by over 30 ranks right into low jonidan to find his aite, Jd109e Banshunada. He's a 20-year-old who is normally more at home in the middle of the division, but had back-to-back MK recently.

Working our way up: Jonidan should have three clear favourites for this round in upper sandanme-quality injury returnees Shuji and Rao, plus new university entrant Kawamoto. 40-year-old Terunosato should be the underdog against fresh talent Tsushida from jo, so those three may constitute the field of contenders for the final round after today. Of course, upsets are always possible, but the yusho will almost certainly be going to one of them as I can't imagine all three falling in round 6 or 7 or a possible playoff.

Sandanme is significantly harder to call today, though on name value you'd probably have to go with Kagamio (won the Ms yusho just 10 months ago, let's not forget), Kototebakari and Sasakiyama.

And finally makushita where the favourites on paper are top-ranked Hakuyozan and recent sekitori Takayoshitoshi, but if there's a division where surprises happen frequently, it's up there.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Asashosakari    11,156

The former sekitori after 10 days.

new KK: Enho, Daiseido, Keitenkai, Hitenryu

new MK: Yamaguchi

Still three yusho contenders.
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out
5-0 Ms1e Hakuyozan Takadagawa 23 1
4-1 Ms2w Enho Miyagino 23 2
kyujo Ms4e Asabenkei Takasago 29 1
3-2 Ms5e Jokoryu Kise 29 13
3-2 Ms5w Akua Tatsunami 27 3
 
kyujo Ms6e Terunofuji Isegahama 26 1
3-2 Ms7e Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 36 26
3-2 Ms7w Toyonoshima Tokitsukaze 35 11
1-4 Ms8w Kitaharima Yamahibiki 31 5
2-3 Ms9w Dewahayate Dewanoumi 29 12
2-3 Ms11w Higonojo Kise 33 25
3-2 Ms12e Tochihiryu Kasugano 31 3
4-1 Ms13e Daiseido Kise 25 4
0-2-3 Ms13w Amakaze Oguruma 27 2
2-3 Ms14e Satoyama Onoe 37 6
4-1 Ms14w Toyohibiki Sakaigawa 33 3
 
3-2 Ms16e Tokushinho Kise 34 16
3-2 Ms17e Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 27 30
4-1 Ms18e Keitenkai Onomatsu 28 35
3-2 Ms22e Nionoumi Yamahibiki 31 30
4-1 Ms22w Tenkaiho Onoe 33 13
1-4 Ms26e Yamaguchi Miyagino 29 3
 
3-2 Ms31e Fujiazuma Tamanoi 31 8
3-2 Ms38e Asahisho Tomozuna 28 7
3-2 Ms41e Chiyootori Kokonoe 25 4
2-3 Ms46w Sakigake Shibatayama 32 21
2-3 Ms47w Takaryu Kise 26 18
5-0 Ms49w Takayoshitoshi Takanohana 21 2
 
5-0 Sd11w Kagamio Kagamiyama 30 13
kyujo Sd13w Masunoyama Chiganoura 27 20
kyujo Sd30w Ura Kise 26 3
4-1 Sd32e Dairaido Takadagawa 38 71
4-1 Sd41e Hitenryu Tatsunami 34 41
3-2 Sd72e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 41 23
3-2 Sd73e Kaonishiki Azumazeki 39 41

 

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Asashosakari    11,156
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Wondering if it ate your post...

Decided to flip the order around to get the lower division summary done before the Day 11 bouts started taking place.


Day 10 (results, text-only results):

Yusho arasoi:

10-0 Sw Mitakeumi
9-1 ---
8-2 M13e Tochiozan, M13w Asanoyama

(Current Japanese hope, former Japanese hope, future Japanese hope?)
 

    3-3-4 Kakuryu       Y1   Hakuho       3-1-6
    kyujo Kisenosato    Y2
     7-3  Goeido        O1   Takayasu      7-3
                        O2   Tochinoshin  5-2-3

It's now a two-win lead for sekiwake Mitakeumi who comprehensively defeated Kagayaki for his 10th straight victory. Asanoyama lost decisively to fellow former top collegiate Hokutofuji and had to yield the direct pursuer's spot. He's joined at 8-2 only by his M13 mate Tochiozan after an easy win over Ishiura. Takayasu (against Kaisei) and Endo (against surging Chiyonokuni) fell back to 7-3 records. Goeido now has the same line after beating Shohozan, so both he and Takayasu only require one more shiroboshi to remain ozeki.

Shohozan's loss was also his makekoshi-clincher so the first sanyaku slot has become available. And Day 10 dutifully turned up the heat on the promotion race, with all the main contenders improving their scores: Aside from Kaisei and Chiyonokuni the torikumi also saw victories for Ikioi over Shodai and Takakeisho over Abi, both matches close to "blink and you'll miss it" territory. Both losing rikishi fell to makekoshi with that.

Sekiwake Ichinojo was the latest beneficiary of a matchup with zenpai Yoshikaze, although he actually seemed to believe he'd already lost it. Could anything be more typical Ichinojo? At 4-6 he's still got a lot of work to do just to stay in sanyaku, let alone reach kachikoshi; both ozeki and Mitakeumi still await him. Komusubi Tamawashi has the opposite record after defeating Kotoshogiku and continues to be a likely heir of the sekiwake slot if Ichinojo can't KK.

Meanwhile it's been announced that injured Tochinoshin won't be rejoining the tournament after all, so he'll be taking up residence on the kadoban carousel for September.

     4-6  Ichinojo      S    Mitakeumi    10-0
     6-4  Tamawashi     K    Shohozan      2-8  (x)

(x)  2-8  Shodai        M1   Kotoshogiku   3-7
     5-5  Ikioi         M2   Chiyonokuni   6-4
(x)  2-8  Abi           M3   Takakeisho    7-3
     7-3  Kaisei        M4   Kagayaki      3-7  (x)
(x)  3-7  Daishomaru    M5
     7-3  Endo          M6   Chiyotairyu   7-3
(x)  4-6  Takarafuji    M7   Daieisho      4-6  (x)
                        M8
     7-3  Myogiryu      M9   Yutakayama    7-3
                        ...
     8-2  Tochiozan     M13  Asanoyama     8-2

Very favourable matchups for both ozeki tomorrow as they seek their kachikoshi refuge: Takayasu goes against Ichinojo, while Goeido faces Daishomaru. Mitakeumi's next opponent en route to his hoped-for yusho is Kaisei.


Debutants Meisei and Kotoeko finally won again after four and five days respectively, so they're not yet makekoshi but still almost certain to fall back to juryo in the end. Meisei's opponent Arawashi, as well as Ishiura (third straight loss) and Okinoumi (fourth straight), all found themselves losing today, and their place in the demotion race should be assured for the rest of the basho; all three will need to win 3 times in 5 days to definitely avoid juryo.

Aoiyama and Sadanoumi (beating Okinoumi) can plan for another makuuchi appearance in September, however.

The juryo division sees its first credible promotion claim after today: Takanoiwa improved to 9-1 at Aminishiki's expense and also maintained his spot atop the yusho race. Takanosho clinched kachikoshi and is in a very good position to secure his makuuchi debut, possibly even with just one more win if the lower maegashira results continue to be bad. Kotoyuki rounds out the small field of strong candidates with today's victory against Gagamaru (who may not be sekitori for much longer on this year's form).

After today's loss Aminishiki now needs four wins "by the numbers" and three wins for sure to have a shot at promotion. Ditto for Daiamami whose small 3-day winning streak came to its end against Kyokushuho. All others will likely depart the list over the next few days. (I'm rooting for Akiseyama to finish 8-7 though.)

                        M5   Yoshikaze     0-10 (2)
                        ...
(1)  3-7  Chiyoshoma    M8   Kyokutaisei   3-7  (1)
                        M9
(1)  4-6  Chiyomaru     M10
(o)  5-5  Aoiyama       M11
(o)  6-4  Sadanoumi     M12  Arawashi      3-7  (3)
                        M13
(4)  3-7  Kotoeko       M14  Okinoumi      4-6  (3)
(3)  4-6  Ishiura       M15  Ryuden        6-4  (1)
(1)  7-3  Hokutofuji    M16  Meisei        3-7  (5)

(x)  2-8  Takekaze      J1   Akiseyama     3-7  (5)
(4)  5-5  Daiamami      J2   Takagenji     4-6  (5)
(2)  7-3  Kotoyuki      J3   Takanoiwa     9-1  (o)
(2)  8-2  Takanosho     J4   Aminishiki    6-4  (4)
(5)  5-5  Daishoho      J5   Hidenoumi     5-5  (5)
(~)  5-5  Seiro         J6   Kyokushuho    6-4  (5)
(~)  5-5  Tsurugisho    J7   Azumaryu      4-6  (x)
(x)  5-5  Shimanoumi    J8   Yago          5-5  (x)
                        J9
                        J10
(~)  7-3  Chiyonoo      J11  Mitoryu       6-4  (x)


Kizenryu lost to Tsurugisho and is the first makekoshi in juryo, and even though he's not demotable yet it appears virtually impossible for him to go on a 5-bout winning streak here, which is what it'll take now. Homarefuji finds himself in the same predicament after today's match with Chiyonoo. Churanoumi even had the unenviable task of needing 7 straight wins as of two days ago, but for now he's hanging in there; yesterday's victory over Yago was followed by another one against Azumaryu today.

Young(ish) hope Ichiyamamoto visited juryo for the first time today, but it won't be an occasion that created happy memories - he is now makekoshi thanks to Chiyonoumi and won't be competing for the promotion slots this basho. The same fate befell Wakamotoharu in makushita, where a lengthy battle with Satoyama resulted in him getting pulled down via shitatehineri in the end. Jokoryu also competed unsuccessfully today and dropped to 3-2, as did outside contender Irodori.

(2)  3-7  Tokushoryu    J9   Gagamaru      4-6  (1)
(x) kyujo Sokokurai     J10  Terutsuyoshi  6-4  (o)
                        J11
(1)  6-4  Wakatakakage  J12  Chiyonoumi    6-4  (1)
(5)  2-8  Kizenryu      J13  Tobizaru      6-4  (1)
(5)  3-7  Homarefuji    J14  Churanoumi    3-7  (5)

(o)  5-0  Hakuyozan     Ms1
     2-3  Gokushindo    Ms2  Enho          4-1
(x)  2-4  Ichiyamamoto  Ms3  Kiribayama    2-3
                        Ms4  Wakamotoharu  1-4  (x)
     3-2  Jokoryu       Ms5  Akua          3-2
                        Ms6  Irodori       3-2

It's looking quite likely that there will be banzuke luck to go around here, although it's not yet sure who will benefit from it. Neither the potential lucky survivors in juryo nor the possible lucky promotees from makushita look all that deserving at their current record trajectories.

In any case, the series of rank-based crossover matches continues with #6, so tomorrow will see Kiribayama going up against Wakatakakage, hoping to avoid his makekoshi. Gokushindo is also in action at 2-3, and Jokoryu and Akua even meet directly.

Edited by Asashosakari
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