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Games Talk Nagoya 2018

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5 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

I always knew his whole career is based on sheer luck. B-)

I fully agree. It was pure luck to win the Bad-Luck-Of-The-Basho award already 5x in Bench Sumo in only 71 Basho.

Ganzohnesushi

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at least  i got my kk in sumogame already today

 

highlight grapping the lead in maegashira game again

 

somewhere else being last in the horitoshi for all 15 days in consecutive should be a special price also?

 

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Yesterday I had exactly 8 projected winners available to pick for Quad. My picks went 1-3, the non-picks went 2-2...too few winners in total to be mad about it. Today: Again 8 projected winners, hopefully with a more favourable outcome.

(I fear what I'm going to have left to pick for senshuraku though...)

Edit: Strike. 3-1 picks, 2-2 unpicked today.

Edited by Asashosakari

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1 hour ago, Senkoho said:

rotosumo.thumb.JPG.bc26ce6fb30c6a7a7cf57a6fd4a2de8f.JPG

 

@Feginowaka good luck tomorrow ;)

 

I have the same line-up too...except for Tochinoshin. :(

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9 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Yesterday I had exactly 8 projected winners available to pick for Quad. My picks went 1-3, the non-picks went 2-2...too few winners in total to be mad about it. Today: Again 8 projected winners, hopefully with a more favourable outcome.

(I fear what I'm going to have left to pick for senshuraku though...)

Edit: Strike. 3-1 picks, 2-2 unpicked today.

I have exactly 4 rikishi available that I have over 50% to win, so pretty much exactly what I'd prefer.  Maybe cutting it a little close, but with all the kyujos I'll take it, especially as two of them are much more likely to win than my average quad picks.

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If Takayasu wins, I think the Sumo Game yusho will be determined randomly!!!

 

  • Haha 1

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I think I lost the Makushita yusho in SG by Rule 4. of the tiebreakers. DANG IT!

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wow winner of the maegaschiragame   of the nagoy basho on better tierbreaker won the tiebreaker by one point couldn`t be closer 

 

YIPPIE

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Dramatic finish in Sekitori Toto. Won the Yusho with 11-4 on TB against 5 contenders who also achieved 11 wins   (Yushowinner...)

Feeling sorry for Asashosakari who was in the driving seat after day 14 and lost on Senshuraku... Would be nice to know how close that TB decision was.

Ganzohnesushi

 

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1 hour ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Dramatic finish in Sekitori Toto. Won the Yusho with 11-4 on TB against 5 contenders who also achieved 11 wins   (Yushowinner...)

Feeling sorry for Asashosakari who was in the driving seat after day 14 and lost on Senshuraku... Would be nice to know how close that TB decision was.

Ganzohnesushi

Congrats! (Iamnotworthy...) Losing yusho from an outright lead on senshuraku has become somewhat of a specialty of mine. Think I've done it twice in Bench and at least three times in Quad already, probably sometime before in Toto as well.

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Out of curiosity I've examinated the past four basho (i.e. Hatsu - Nagoya 2018) in Sekitori Toto regarding which rikishi accumulated the highest success rate in all players' picks, both picked for win or picked for loss. Here's the top ten:

1.  Kakuryu        77.300%
2.  Tochinoshin    72.920%
3.  Hakuho         72.362%
4.  Yamaguchi      67.723%
5.  Kotoshogiku    67.589%
6.  Kaisei         67.395%
7.  Kizenryu       66.414%
8.  Ikioi          65.842%
9.  Terunofuji     65.102%
10. Mitakeumi      64.584%

You might wonder about Yamaguchi at 4th place, but 95% of his successful picks implied losses (and 84% for Kizenryu).

Of course it's even more interesting to look for the stinkers, i.e. those with the lowest success rate overall:

1.  Kisenosato     36.597%
2.  Takagenji      43.287%
3.  Terutsuyoshi   43.664%
4.  Gagamaru       45.158%
5.  Takayoshitoshi 46.189%
6.  Azumaryu       46.539%
7.  Kyokushuho     47.111%
8.  Tobizaru       48.215%
9.  Kotoyuki       48.953%
10. Enho           49.787%

Apart from the ailing yokozuna on top, it's no great surprise that we're looking mostly at Juryo material here.

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Numbers 3, 4, 6 and 7 are certainly all rikishi I would have personally nominated for the second list... 

I'm a bit surprised that Kaisei ranks so highly, but I guess he hasn't been quite so Jekyll-and-Hydeish of late.

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2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm a bit surprised that Kaisei ranks so highly, but I guess he hasn't been quite so Jekyll-and-Hydeish of late.

That correlates with my Bench Sumo stats (published today) where Kaisei appears in the highest-net-score-per-pick top-ten for the third basho in a row. Seems like Kaisei-B only appears when expected nowadays.

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On 23.7.2018 at 15:50, Jakusotsu said:

Out of curiosity I've examinated the past four basho (i.e. Hatsu - Nagoya 2018) in Sekitori Toto regarding which rikishi accumulated the highest success rate in all players' picks, both picked for win or picked for loss.

I've examined all available data now (going back to Haru 2008). Here are the top-ten:

1.  Hakuho         87.692%
2.  Asashoryu      78.496%
3.  Hamanishiki    76.269%
4.  Hishofuji      70.311%
5.  Baruto         69.280%
6.  Harumafuji     69.234%
7.  Kisenosato     68.986%
8.  Kakuryu        67.927%
9.  Nakanokuni     67.588%
10. Kotomitsuki    65.793%

And here are the party poopers:

1.  Ushiomaru      45.185%
2.  Terutsuyoshi   45.230%
3.  Takagenji      45.728%
4.  Takayoshitoshi 46.189%
5.  Hakurozan      46.270%
6.  Shirononami    46.387%
7.  Daiyubu        46.643%
8.  Yago           46.761%
9.  Kyokutaisei    47.395%
10. Meisei         48.296%

A lot of current Juryo rikishi here, perhaps because players didn't have time enough yet to evaluate them properly.

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The Oracle brouhaha elsewhere just made me realize that I've missed out on getting repromoted to ozeki by one point. (Blowingupfuriously...)

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The Seki-toto good success rate stats would be more interesting if they were manipulated in some way to take into account the rikishi's winning (or in a few cases, losing) percentage.  That is, it doesn't say very much that Hakuho was correctly picked for 88% of the time when he wins (or used to at least) 88% of his matches, and similarly for Hishofuji, whose large correct guesses stem entirely from the fact that he went 4-11 in his only Juryo basho that he lucked into because of the yaocho scandal and was probably seen as the likely loser every match by almost everyone.  If you restricted it to rikishi that have much closer to 50% win rates as a sekitori, it would be more interesting in terms of who's easier to predict for.

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9 hours ago, Gurowake said:

If you restricted it to rikishi that have much closer to 50% win rates as a sekitori, it would be more interesting in terms of who's easier to predict for.

Define "much closer", and we're game!

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9 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Define "much closer", and we're game!

Anyone win a win rate as sekitori in the 45%-55% range. 

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1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Anyone win a win rate as sekitori in the 45%-55% range. 

Here you go.

Top-ten:

1.  Miyabiyama     64.758%
2.  Tochinoshin    64.478%
3.  Iwakiyama      63.875%
4.  Toyonoshima    63.223%
5.  Terunofuji     63.055%
6.  Shodai         62.561%
7.  Aoiyama        61.788%
8.  Ikioi          61.676%
9.  Aran           61.491%
10. Takarafuji     61.078%

Bottom-ten:

1.  Ushiomaru      45.185%
2.  Terutsuyoshi   45.230%
3.  Takagenji      45.728%
4.  Shirononami    46.387%
5.  Yago           46.761%
6.  Kyokutaisei    47.395%
7.  Shoketsu       47.718%
8.  Meisei         48.296%
9.  Kiribayama     48.322%
10. Chiyohakuho    48.604%

The top-ten are completely different now while the bottom-three remained the same.

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