Pandaazuma

Mukade Beya (Formerly STI) Sumo Gaming Banter Thread

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First poor day by the Panda...but these happen over a basho so I'm not too worried. Today was a total lottery mess and I almost always do badly on days like this. Pretty baffled at Terarno's strategy today, though. He put Shin top of his SG line-up and Keisho at 10, a clear tactic to try to beat the yusho leader (it worked). But against me in Bench he had Keisho at 4 and Shin on the bench. Bizarre.

Lost a lot of Masters points today across the board, but it's what you have on day 15 that counts. At least I won TTT, a game that I was completely out of but am now in the running for. Can't complain then.

And...of course...I lost in the Baka Cup. 6-3 now.

SG stats coming soon. GAMBARIMASU!

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Oracle day 9:

Gurowake keeps his lead:

Pandaazuma -5

Norizo -11

Haidouzo -12

C-Y -16

Susanoo -30

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The less said about today the better. Good 8s from Mark and Scott. Yusho hopes are very remote now.

Day 9:

Rank    Wins Points AADs Opp AADs 10 8+ 5- TB TB+ Who? SG shikona
EY1 5-4 53-51 7 5 0 2 4 4 2 Simon Pandaazuma
WS1 3-6 50-51 6 6 0 0 4 4 1 Eric Sebunshu
EK1 5-4 49-47 4 4 0 1 4 3 1 Scott Haidouzo
WK1 5-4 49-48 6 5 0 2 5 2 1 Miyako Chankoyama
EK2 5-4 51-50 7 6 0 2 4 3 2 Gary Chocshoporyu
EM5 1-8 44-50 3 6 0 0 5 5 1 Jan Kuroimori
WM7 1-8 49-55 5 8 0 0 6 4 1 Sergio Chishafuwaku
EM10 2-7 46-50 3 6 0 1 6 1 0 Renaud Kotononami
WM12 3-6 49-48 5 5 0 2 5 5 1 Douglas ScreechingOwl
WM12 5-4 49-45 5 4 0 1 3 2 0 Rupert Rupatengu
EM13 4-5 42-50 2 5 0 1 7 4 3 Alexander Ganzohnesushi
WM15 4-5 49-44 5 3 0 1 5 4 1 Mark Fujiyama
WM16 4-5 44-46 4 4 0 1 6 2 1 Stefan Sagi
*                      
WJ2 3-6 48-49 5 5 0 1 4 4 0 Hal Chisaiyama
*                      
Ems4 6-3 49-45 5 4 0 0 3 3 2 ????? Unkonoyama
Wms13 6-3 52-45 8 4 0 1 4 1 0 Jezz Jejima

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For once, a strong day, with losses only in Quad and TUG.  (No bet in Odd.)

Yushos seem mostly out of hand everywhere (except TUG, but that's not Masters).  Unless there's something I'm missing in pre-bashos.

GANBARIMASU

Edited by Haidouzo
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Had a chance to check the Masters. I have added @Gurowake as he is in the running for the Green Mawashi. The table below is in order of World Championships scores.

[Name; My projection; Current score; World Championship total]

1. Pandaazuma...81...69.44...320.54

2. Norizo...56...45.94...257.33

3. Susanoo...28...14.9...211.64

4. Gurowake...77...62.38...120.03

Panda had two poor days but strong positions in several historically stable pre-bashos plus a few dailies has kept him ahead. Norizo has been stellar, but any chance of beating Panda depends not only on keeping such a high level up but even improving on it. Thus any loss in the dailies will be doubly painful. Today he lost in Toto, Quad and SG - all vital ones for his score. With five days left, his only chance now is a calamitous collapse by the Panda. Susanoo is not in the running in either the Worlds or the Green Mawashi, but he is trending 200+ so I'll keep him here. Gurowake's current score is higher than his total for the whole year so far and he is currently the second favourite for the green, just behind Panda. His big points are also in relatively stable pre-basho games so a good finish in Bench, where he is doing well, could be crucial. In fact, his projection may be higher if he has predicted 'other cases' in Norizo Cup, but I couldn't check that.

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Oracle projections as of day 10. Gurowake is looking the hot favourite for yusho now. I may add a couple of other high-scoring players tomorrow.

1. Gurowake leads

2. Pandaazuma -8

3. Haidouzo -12

4. Norizo -13

5. C-Y -16

6. Susanoo -25

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Another crappy day for the Panda, winning only Quad and Toto. I took a calculated risk with Ichinojo, who needs to win, to beat Shin, who looked badly injured yesterday, knowing that their bouts are usually protracted chikara-zumo ones. My risk backfired and cost me wins in Bench, ISP and TTT. My picking system actually rejected Ichinojo AND Shin today...so this is a lesson in always trusting one's system. SG MK is a real possibility now.

But overall I am doing pretty well. Tipspiel and Hoshitori remain the highlights as I lead both games. There are plenty of other nice results too. Will try to finish strongly, but I think 100+ is out of the picture now, sadly.

Ichinojo cost me the Baka Cup today as well. 6-4 it is.

GAMBARIMASU!

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Gary and Rupe won and are still mathematically in the yusho hunt, but they'll need to win out.Jan and Sergio really need to start winning or they could be looking at demotion to Juryo from pretty high ranks. Stefan is also starting to look a but precarious. Makushita is looking good though. Keep that going.

Day 10:

Rank    Wins Points AADs Opp AADs 10 8+ 5- TB TB+ Who? SG shikona
EY1 5-5 60-60 7 6 0 2 4 4 2 Simon Pandaazuma
WS1 4-6 58-59 7 7 0 1 4 5 2 Eric Sebunshu
EK1 5-5 57-55 5 5 0 2 4 4 1 Scott Haidouzo
WK1 5-5 57-56 7 6 0 3 5 3 1 Miyako Chankoyama
EK2 6-4 60-57 8 6 0 3 4 3 2 Gary Chocshoporyu
EM5 1-9 53-59 4 7 0 1 5 6 1 Jan Kuroimori
WM7 1-9 55-63 5 9 0 0 6 4 1 Sergio Chishafuwaku
EM10 3-7 55-58 4 7 0 2 6 1 0 Renaud Kotononami
WM12 4-6 58-56 6 6 0 3 5 5 1 Douglas ScreechingOwl
WM12 6-4 57-52 6 4 0 2 3 2 0 Rupert Rupatengu
EM13 5-5 51-57 3 5 0 2 7 4 3 Alexander Ganzohnesushi
WM15 5-5 57-50 6 3 0 2 5 4 1 Mark Fujiyama
WM16 4-6 51-55 4 5 0 1 6 2 1 Stefan Sagi
*                      
WJ2 4-6 56-57 6 6 0 2 4 5 1 Hal Chisaiyama
*                      
Ems4 7-3 57-53 6 5 0 1 3 4 3 ????? Unkonoyama
Wms13 7-3 61-53 9 5 0 2 4 1 0 Jezz Jejima

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I didn't go with "other cases" in Norizo Cup.  My yusho pick was wrong by Day 3.

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Oracle Day 11:

Gurowake is still a mile ahead. Panda is about the only one even slightly close. I think Jejima with his 'interesting' selections (that will no doubt amuse Gansekiiwa) is in the running for a jun yusho, but I lack the time to work it out right now. Maybe tomorrow if I get a moment (unlikely).

Gurowake leads.

Pandaazuma -6

Norizo -13

Haidouzo -13

C-Y -14

Susanoo -28

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A third awful day. A combination of horrendous luck across several games and quite a bit of unpredictability in general has really stopped me in my tracks. I am now out of several games that I had a decent chance in but am still OK in the more stable ones. Would be nice to have a decent day for a change. Bad luck of the basho (yet again) in SG. Insane luck in Toto. It's a horror show. At least I managed to get past Scott to go 7-4 in the Baka Cup.

Don't have time or energy to calculate the World Championship situation, but Norizo lost a lot again today and is in big trouble.

Anyway...gambarimasu!

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11日目

Rank    Wins Points AADs Opp AADs 10 8+ 5- TB TB+ Who? SG shikona
EY1 5-6 67-68 8 7 0 2 4 4 2 Simon Pandaazuma
WS1 5-6 65-65 8 7 0 1 4 5 2 Eric Sebunshu
EK1 5-6 63-62 5 6 0 2 4 4 1 Scott Haidouzo
WK1 6-5 65-63 8 7 0 4 5 3 1 Miyako Chankoyama
EK2 7-4 68-64 9 7 0 4 4 3 2 Gary Chocshoporyu
EM5 2-9 61-66 5 8 0 2 5 6 1 Jan Kuroimori
WM7 2-9 64-69 6 9 0 1 6 4 1 Sergio Chishafuwaku
EM10 3-8 62-66 5 8 0 2 6 1 0 Renaud Kotononami
WM12 5-6 65-63 7 7 0 3 5 6 2 Douglas ScreechingOwl
WM12 7-4 65-59 7 5 0 3 3 2 0 Rupert Rupatengu
EM13 5-6 58-64 4 6 0 2 7 5 3 Alexander Ganzohnesushi
WM15 5-6 64-57 7 4 0 2 5 5 1 Mark Fujiyama
WM16 4-7 58-62 5 6 0 1 6 3 1 Stefan Sagi
*                      
WJ2 5-6 63-63 7 6 0 2 4 5 1 Hal Chisaiyama
*                      
Ems4 8-3 64-59 7 5 0 1 3 4 3 ????? Unkonoyama
Wms13 8-3 67-58 9 5 0 2 4 1 0 Jezz Jejima

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11 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

I think Jejima with his 'interesting' selections (that will no doubt amuse Gansekiiwa) is in the running for a jun yusho, but I lack the time to work it out right now. Maybe tomorrow if I get a moment (unlikely).

Ah! He did it again. Very good. He did well last time with it considering there were so many double digit and low single digit records at Aki.

This time it's even better because there are less record extremes. We'll see how that holds up. I predicted you'll need to move outside the 7-8 picks a bit to make the Top 10 but if it ends up with only a couple guys with double digit wins or less than 5 losses he could get close to a win. Especially with Takakeisho, someone I doubt many predicted more than 8 wins for, being one of the few over 9 wins

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Poor performance as mentioned earlier. At least there seems to be some damage control in a couple of games. And - as my personal highlight of Kyushu Basho - a few SB Masters points might be possible in Juryo Game. All in all a very disappointing Sumo gaming year 2018...

Ganzohnesushi

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On paper had a pretty good day, but my horrendous SG luck always puts a downer on me. Hate that more than anything.

On the World Championship front, my poor week-two performance has been matched by Norizo, who had another bad day. He would now need a miracle to catch me. I havent looked at the Masters, but Gurowake looks a very likely winner now.

In Oracle, Jejima and Tsuchinoninjin are doing well. The latter could even challenge Gurowake. Again, if I get some time, I will send on the projections.

I will do the SG stats late tonight.

 

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Stuff happened.

5-7 in SG (after, once again, losing my bout but winning the Baka Cup match) which means I need three wins or else, based on past experience, I should expect to go from komusubi to around M6 with an eighth loss.

Somehow 7-5 in Toto, despite not getting to change my Goeido pick in time.  Likewise in TTT.

5th in Odd.

5-7 in Bench and fighting to stay in Makuuchi from M13.

GANBARIMASU

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Day 12:

Rank    Wins Points AADs Opp AADs 10 8+ 5- TB TB+ Who? SG shikona
EY1 5-7 73-75 9 8 0 2 4 4 2 Simon Pandaazuma
WS1 5-7 71-74 9 8 0 1 4 5 2 Eric Sebunshu
EK1 5-7 70-70 6 7 0 2 4 4 1 Scott Haidouzo
WK1 7-5 70-67 8 7 0 4 6 3 1 Miyako Chankoyama
EK2 8-4 74-67 10 7 0 4 4 3 2 Gary Chocshoporyu
EM5 3-9 68-72 6 9 0 2 5 6 1 Jan Kuroimori
WM7 2-10 69-76 6 10 0 1 7 4 1 Sergio Chishafuwaku
EM10 3-9 69-75 6 9 0 2 6 1 0 Renaud Kotononami
WM12 6-6 72-69 8 8 0 3 5 6 2 Douglas ScreechingOwl
WM12 8-4 70-64 7 5 0 3 4 3 1 Rupert Rupatengu
EM13 5-7 64-70 5 7 0 2 7 6 3 Alexander Ganzohnesushi
WM15 5-7 70-63 8 5 0 2 5 6 1 Mark Fujiyama
WM16 4-8 64-69 6 7 0 1 6 3 1 Stefan Sagi
*                      
WJ2 5-7 70-70 8 7 0 2 4 6 1 Hal Chisaiyama
*                      
Ems4 8-4 69-66 7 6 0 1 4 4 3 ????? Unkonoyama
Wms13 8-4 71-63 9 5 0 2 5 1 0 Jezz Jejima

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Masters/World Championships update:

Norizo is projected by me to score a maximum of around 30. He currently has 19.96 points and that could go up a fair amount if he finishes strongly, but he probably won't even reach the level required to beat a zero-scoring Panda. Given that I am projected to score between 60 and 70, and that I currently have a score of 56.45, the race is all over. All that remains is whether I can beat the current Masters record and go 300+. The way my games are going this week, this is actually in question. Oh for some stability on the dohyo!!

The Masters is a lot closer. Gurowake is projected by me to score between 70 and 80. He currently has a score of around 64. A strong finish by either Panda or Gurowake could swing things their way. I noticed also that Tsuchinoninjin is going well in a few games, but I lack the time to work out his prospects. Maybe tomorrow if I get a moment.

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KK for Chankoyama today. Rupert gets his ninth. Makushita is looking good, but yusho is almost impossible.

Day 13

Rank    Wins Points AADs Opp AADs 10 8+ 5- TB TB+ Who? SG shikona
EY1 6-7 81-82 10 8 0 3 4 4 2 Simon Pandaazuma
WS1 5-8 78-82 9 9 0 1 4 5 2 Eric Sebunshu
EK1 5-8 76-78 6 8 0 2 4 4 1 Scott Haidouzo
WK1 8-5 79-73 9 7 0 5 6 3 1 Miyako Chankoyama
EK2 8-5 80-75 10 8 0 4 4 3 2 Gary Chocshoporyu
EM5 4-9 76-79 7 9 0 3 5 6 1 Jan Kuroimori
WM7 3-10 78-84 7 11 0 2 7 4 1 Sergio Chishafuwaku
EM10 4-9 76-82 6 9 0 2 6 2 1 Renaud Kotononami
WM12 6-7 78-76 8 8 0 3 5 6 2 Douglas ScreechingOwl
WM12 9-4 77-70 7 5 0 3 4 3 1 Rupert Rupatengu
EM13 6-7 70-76 5 7 0 2 7 7 4 Alexander Ganzohnesushi
WM15 5-8 76-72 8 6 0 2 5 6 1 Mark Fujiyama
WM16 5-8 73-76 7 7 0 2 6 3 1 Stefan Sagi
*                      
WJ2 6-7 78-77 9 7 0 3 4 6 1 Hal Chisaiyama
*                      
Ems4 9-4 77-73 8 6 0 2 4 4 3 ????? Unkonoyama
Wms13 9-4 79-70 10 5 0 3 5 1 0 Jezz Jejima

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Not a bad day overall. Won SG and Bench, which was pretty important. Wins in Quad and TTT keep me in the running for small change. The Tipspiel collapse, however, has been epic!

Pre-bashos have faded somewhat in this poor second week, but there are still plenty of potential points to be garnered.

Aaaaand...Scott gets to keep that stinking Baka Cup for another two months! Yay!

GAMBARIMASU!

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On 21/11/2018 at 22:03, Rocks said:

Ah! He did it again. Very good. He did well last time with it considering there were so many double digit and low single digit records at Aki.

This time it's even better because there are less record extremes. We'll see how that holds up. I predicted you'll need to move outside the 7-8 picks a bit to make the Top 10 but if it ends up with only a couple guys with double digit wins or less than 5 losses he could get close to a win. Especially with Takakeisho, someone I doubt many predicted more than 8 wins for, being one of the few over 9 wins

Have I done something wrong? :-D

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48 minutes ago, Jejima said:

Have I done something wrong? :-D

Absolutely not. (Applauding...)

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MK in Bench and SG.  Now I suppose I'm just fighting to stay in makuuchi in SG.

Somehow, I am in a massive tie for 7th in Toto.  Some points there would be one unusual consolation prize.

5th in Odd.

If I can win out in Quad (a tall order, for sure), I imagine I'd finish in the top 10 there.

Perhaps this basho isn't quite as awful as I was afraid it would be.



Oh, wait.  The Baka Cup.

GANBARIMASU

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