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Uk.sumo.fan

Today's betting odds for the bouts

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Hi 

I found these betting odds for today's bouts and thought some others may be interested to see them. If anyone knows any other bookmakers which offer sumo odds then please let me know!

https://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Sumo/

Kagayaki (1.99) and Ishiura (2.28) look like okay odds.

Strangely two of the bouts are missing from the list.

UKsumofan

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I'm surprised there's anyone offering straight bets on matches.  I've looked before too.  It'll be interesting to compare them to my own odds.

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What kind of stupid order did they put them in?  Alphabetical by first rikishi?  Intentionally making it hard to compare to those who do things sensibly by torikumi order.

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37 minutes ago, Uk.sumo.fan said:

Kagayaki (1.99) and Ishiura (2.28) look like okay odds.

Strangely two of the bouts are missing from the list.

UKsumofan

Kagayaki looks very good. I'd put money on him. Not on Ishiiura though. 

 

If you think about who's missing it makes perfect sense. Tochinoshin and Aoiyama. They'd get heavy betting on them with foreigners, especially Russians.  They'd do well with Aoiyama as he's hurt but even he might beat Myogiryu. Betting would be very heavy on Tochinoshin at almost any odds and he's likely to win. If they win the book would take a bath.

 

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The missing bouts are Mitakeumi-Tochinoshin and Myogiryu-Aoiyama.

I'd say the best odds are on Yutakayama, then Okinoumi, Yoshikaze, and Takakeisho.

I wouldn't bet anything on Kagayaki vs. Hokutofuji because I can't accurately determine how injured Hokutofuji is.  I would bet on Ishiura though, it's slight +EV.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Rocks said:

If you think about who's missing it makes perfect sense. Tochinoshin and Aoiyama. They'd get heavy betting on them with foreigners, especially Russians.  They'd do well with Aoiyama as he's hurt but even he might beat Myogiryu. Betting would be very heavy on Tochinoshin at almost any odds and he's likely to win. If they win the book would take a bath.

Certainly I would agree with your assessment that they are not offering odds on the Europeans, although I wouldn't say for sure exactly why that is as there are a lot of potential reasons.

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42 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'm surprised there's anyone offering straight bets on matches.  I've looked before too.  It'll be interesting to compare them to my own odds.

I'm pretty sure I looked at this particular website as well.  I recall looking through the very weird "special bets" like who would be the next leader of the major British political parties.  I suppose most sites might have them, but I think the format of how they're laid out and the overall experience feels like I've poked around on the site before.  I think they were the ones I saw that offered Yusho odds some years ago.  There was no indication at the time that they did daily bets.  Perhaps they have been all this time, and they just don't have them up ahead of time because no one knows what the bouts are ahead of time.  I don't exactly have time to go looking for them during the basho in general compared to looking between basho to see if there are signs that they will offer or did offer; perhaps I just needed to look at the right times.

Not that I would spend any money, but just to compare odds.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'd say the best odds are on Yutakayama, then Okinoumi, Yoshikaze, and Takakeisho.

By the numbers I'd say you are right, but I still wouldn't bet on Yutakayama.  My gut tells me he has less chance tonight then Shohozan and Kaisei.  I like the odds on Kaisei. Not that I think he will win but he has to beat one of the Yokozuna one time. 0-3, 4 or 5 seems to be when these guys make their breakthrough too. Less pressure. I'd risk 10 for almost 50. Maybe. 

Edited by Rocks

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21 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'd say the best odds are on Yutakayama, then Okinoumi, Yoshikaze, and Takakeisho.

I wouldn't bet anything on Kagayaki vs. Hokutofuji because I can't accurately determine how injured Hokutofuji is.  I would bet on Ishiura though, it's slight +EV.

Interesting that you think Yutakayama (3.52) odds are good, I suppose they are pretty long but I can't see Ichinojo losing. What does "+EV" mean in you post? 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Expected Value.  I think Yutakayama will win 32.69% of the time, which means I would expect a return of .3269 * 3.52 = 1.15 per unit bet, for +Expected Value of 15%.  I have the +EV for Ishiura at +1.6%, which is tiny, but there are plenty of matches where their odds are close enough to mine that neither rikishi is worth betting on because of the vig.

Edited by Gurowake

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5 minutes ago, Rocks said:

By the numbers I'd say you are right, but I still wouldn't bet on Yutakayama.  My gut tells me he has less chance tonight then Shohozan and Kaisei.  I like the odds on Kaisei. Not that I think he will win but he has to beat one of the Yokozuna one time. 0-3, 4 or 5 seems to be when these guys make their breakthrough too. Less pressure. I'd risk 10 for almost 50. Maybe. 

Amusingly, I think Kaisei is the absolute worst bet on the board.  8.4% chance to win * 4.85 ~= .4.  That doesn't make Hakuho the best because of how the vig gets distributed on long-odds bets - in general (and the casinos know this), people will bet more on long shots than they "should", which means they skimp on the odds a little.   Hakuho is still at a good +8.3% EV though, although I might discount that since he's sorta injured and not feel comfortable making that bet (assuming I ever felt comfortable betting on sports, which I don't).

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8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Expected Value.  I think Yutakayama will win 32.69% of the time, which means I would expect a return of .3269 * 3.52 = 1.15 per unit bet, for +Expected Value of 15%.  I have the +EV for Ishiura at +1.6%, which is tiny, but there are plenty of matches where their odds are close enough to mine that neither rikishi is worth betting on because of the vig.

Thats interesting. Where do you get your own numbers from to compare with the bookies? 

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Just now, Uk.sumo.fan said:

Thats interesting. Where do you get your own numbers from to compare with the bookies? 

From a very complicated system that I couldn't even begin to succinctly describe.  But the only things that it takes into consideration are the results of matches, while bookies (and most everyone else) will be looking at how the rikishi actually perform.  It was devised as a way of making picks for the Sumo Games without spending a lot of time thinking each day - instead, I thought a whole lot between basho while I was a student about the best way to set up a results-only system so that during the basho, particularly now that I'm employed, I can rattle off the entries rather quickly.

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3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Amusingly, I think Kaisei is the absolute worst bet on the board. 

Oh, he is. But sometimes it just feels more like maybe than most times.  Especially with Hakuho ending up flat on his ass despite winning yesterday. 

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The only one I'd got for is Nishikigi-Kyokutaisei, going of course with the latter.

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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

The only one I'd got for is Nishikigi-Kyokutaisei, going of course with the latter.

My Toto pick disagrees, and I have a 64.41% success rate for predicting Nishikigi's wins. B-)

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Ah well, must be one of those 35.59% days...

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Ah well, must be one of those 35.59% days...

Nothing like the guts. I was 1000 percent sure of my prediction, which is one of my very few correct ones so far in all of Makuuchi.. Nishikigi tends to streak.

Edited by Kintamayama

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Shohozan, not Kaisei. It's always the OTHER long shot that comes in.

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Well, I'll be.

The Machine sees 11 +EV bouts for day 5.

Perhaps I'll have to see how a bunch of hypothetical bets over the remaining 11 days turns out.

 

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I'm staking myself 100 units, if anyone wants to play along with me. ^_^

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Yesterday i went for Kagayaki, Yoshikaze, Okinoumi and Ishiura to win. Only Yoshikaze was correct (Idunno...)

Maybe today i will go for Takarafuji (1.7)...

Just very small amounts for fun 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-05-17 at 10.29.53.png

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3-1 on Chiyoshoma against Shodai? Tough to lay off that. I feel a big henka coming from Chiyoshoma and Shodai rarely wins 5 in a row since joining Makuuchi.

56 minutes ago, Uk.sumo.fan said:

Yesterday i went for Kagayaki, Yoshikaze, Okinoumi and Ishiura to win.

I knew Ishiura was a bad bet. He's a good choice tonight but worse odds.

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