Bumpkin 438 Posted March 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Atenzan said: Two very famous ones: Takanohana in 1993 and Hakuhou in 2006. Relevant query Edit: here is the query for the other route (jun-yusho first), but it doesn't yield any more cases. Perhaps their young age had something to do with being passed over for Yokozuna promotion. Takanohana was 20 years, 11 months old. Hakuho was 21 years, 4 months old. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rigel 62 Posted March 27, 2018 7 hours ago, maorencze said: (definitely not with an asterisk of "as the minimum standard required") You may possibly have been the only poster in the entire thread who did not have that qualifier in mind. When it was stated that the back to back yusho standard has been dead for some time, we all, except maybe you, understood that to mean "as the minimum standard". What other interpretation could there have been? Did you think he meant that back to back yusho as an Ozeki would not get a promotion? That is absurd. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pandaazuma 1,310 Posted March 27, 2018 (edited) 5 hours ago, Rocks said: Until recently I would agree with this. But this isn't apples to apples. Both Kaio and Tochiazuma were injury plagued. Going Kyujo in a bunch of basho as Ozeki. Kaio was old too Plus, it hadn't been over a decade since the last Japanese Yokozuna. They thought they had it good anyway. They had dai-yokozuna in Asashoryu and Hakuho. They didn't realize how much money they were leaving on the table till Kisenosato got promoted. If they haven't been concerned with the composition of the yokozuna rank in the past I think they are now. Are they going to promote any slob with grabs a yusho just because he's Japanese? No. But they aren't going to be too particular either if you ask me. Especially if the guy is younger, healthy and puts up consistent numbers as an Ozeki. There are many assumptions being made here about the thought processes of those in the kyokai responsible for approving yokozuna promotions, none of which are based on anything other than what seems obvious common sense to a non-Japanese person with no connection to sumo. Japanese culture - and especially sumo culture - can not be expected to follow Western logic. I have lived in Japan for over twenty years and I still see examples of Japanese thinking that would seem odd or even dumb/ridiculous to the average Westerner. My point: Unless one has access to the internal deliberations that approved or denied past promotions, or unless one has a long, deep understanding of how things are decided in sumo, you're basically just making things up. We here can go on precedent alone and speculate...and that is about it. And from time to time, someone with better insight might pop up and help us out. This is why I watch the Japanese broadcast on NHK, even though I understand it only 80% or so. I'd rather listen to what oyakata and former rikishi say than Western commentators...with honourable exceptions: John and Doreen indeed DO have long, deep insight and are personally involved with sumo and so I will listen to them. Edited March 27, 2018 by Pandaazuma 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maorencze 144 Posted March 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Rigel said: You may possibly have been the only poster in the entire thread who did not have that qualifier in mind. When it was stated that the back to back yusho standard has been dead for some time, we all, except maybe you, understood that to mean "as the minimum standard". That may have been possible. Again, I was only trying to set the facts straight and to me the discussion seemed to be about "tsuna runs" and not "back-to-back standard". I don't understand why my interpretation of this is such a huge topic, all of you say that I missed the point, OK, I probably missed the point (and again, sorry, I saw it as something different than the rest of you probably had in mind), does this make the facts I stated incorrect? 1 hour ago, Rigel said: What other interpretation could there have been? Did you think he meant that back to back yusho as an Ozeki would not get a promotion? That is absurd. Asashosakari explicitly stated that back-to-back yusho standard has been essentially dead for 15 years. That didn't seem correct to me. Nothing more, nothing less (nothing sophistic about it). I read the context of discussion differently is all. Why is that so bothering I don't quite see, but I didn't mean any offense. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 27, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, Pandaazuma said: My point: Unless one has access to the internal deliberations that approved or denied past promotions, or unless one has a long, deep understanding of how things are decided in sumo, you're basically just making things up. We here can go on precedent alone and speculate...and that is about it. And from time to time, someone with better insight might pop up and help us out. This is why I watch the Japanese broadcast on NHK, even though I understand it only 80% or so. I'd rather listen to what oyakata and former rikishi say than Western commentators...with honourable exceptions: John and Doreen indeed DO have long, deep insight and are personally involved with sumo and so I will listen to them. And what one shouldn't forget: The guys making the decisions are all sumo lifers. The people currently high up in the Kyokai have been on the administrative side for 25+ years. At the start of that period they worked under other guys who themselves had been administering the Kyokai's efforts for 25+ years. And prior to that those men were active as rikishi for 15+ years. In other words, somebody like Hakkaku has probably been told stories first-hand about how things were in Ozumo as far back as the 1950s, when his direct seniors were competing. Yet somehow there's always this fan belief that recentism must be rampant in the Kyokai, and that none of them are capable of anything but in-the-moment decision-making. That might be true of crisis situations which by their very nature tend to come with unexpected challenges. But the continuous stuff that forms the historical backbone of Ozumo, such as how, when and whom to promote to yokozuna? I daresay they probably have a better handle on that than any of us fans. (But no, "better" does not mean "perfect", the standard commonly demanded by us armchair quarterbacks.) Edited March 27, 2018 by Asashosakari 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rocks 1,809 Posted March 27, 2018 8 hours ago, Pandaazuma said: There are many assumptions being made here about the thought processes of those in the kyokai responsible for approving yokozuna promotions, none of which are based on anything other than what seems obvious common sense to a non-Japanese person with no connection to sumo. Japanese culture - and especially sumo culture - can not be expected to follow Western logic. While I agree there is a vast difference in culture I would disagree about "many" assumptions being made. I'd suggest there is 1 being made, they have self interest and like to make money. I don't see these as exclusive to Western culture or logic. Yes, they have the honors and traditions of sumo to deal with and I am sure that receives the greatest respect possible. But I don't think it's out of line to suggest they are likely to do what they can within those strictures to increase the sports popularity and maybe increase their bottom line while they are at it. I'd even suggest that they see that as their primary job. As they should. 8 hours ago, Pandaazuma said: My point: Unless one has access to the internal deliberations that approved or denied past promotions, or unless one has a long, deep understanding of how things are decided in sumo, you're basically just making things up. We here can go on precedent alone and speculate...and that is about it. And from time to time, someone with better insight might pop up and help us out. I would be the first to admit I'm just speculating. If anyone is under the mistaken impression I have some special knowledge I would dissuade you from that assumption myself. By the same token I have to wonder why anyone would think virtually everyone on here is doing anything more than speculating and why there seems to be a need to even point that out? As to speculation itself isn't that an integral part of all sports fandom? There are guys on the radio and TV here in the States who have been following baseball for 30 years and have real inside knowledge. They are still wrong half the time. Maybe this is just an American thing. I don't know. But even if it is I have to ask, what's wrong with that? I would find it hard to believe that there aren't Japanese forums where Ikioi fans have speculated on him for years on his chances. Are there people on those forums pointing out they are just speculating? I'm sorry but this idea of "you don't really know" coming up all the time seems a bit silly to me. As you point out how many people, inside or outside of Japan, have access to the internal deliberations that approved or denied past promotions? So basically everyone doesn't really know. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RabidJohn 1,787 Posted March 27, 2018 I'm as guilty as anyone of enjoying a good bit of speculation, but I'm not sure Takayasu warrants it just yet. To my mind, 12-3J, 12-3J is confirming his rank as ozeki rather than pushing for the rope. YDC didn't even mention Takayasu according to Moti's post: 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kintamayama 45,117 Posted March 27, 2018 1 hour ago, RabidJohn said: I'YDC didn't even mention Takayasu according to Moti's post: They never mentioned Kisenosato either before the basho he became Yokozuna, if my memory serves me right. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 27, 2018 6 hours ago, Rocks said: As to speculation itself isn't that an integral part of all sports fandom? There are guys on the radio and TV here in the States who have been following baseball for 30 years and have real inside knowledge. They are still wrong half the time. Maybe this is just an American thing. I don't know. But even if it is I have to ask, what's wrong with that? I would find it hard to believe that there aren't Japanese forums where Ikioi fans have speculated on him for years on his chances. Are there people on those forums pointing out they are just speculating? I'm sorry but this idea of "you don't really know" coming up all the time seems a bit silly to me. As you point out how many people, inside or outside of Japan, have access to the internal deliberations that approved or denied past promotions? So basically everyone doesn't really know. I don't know if this is what Pandaazuma was getting at, but the issue with a lot of the speculation in sumo fandom (and this isn't directed at you specifically) is that it is based on assumptions that are simply taken on faith, not supported with any actual facts. The vast majority of the time when somebody claims something along the lines of "The Kyokai is desperate for another Japanese yokozuna", what the person is actually saying is "I believe the Kyokai should be desperate for another Japanese yokozuna, because I would be if I were them". And there's a whole lot of that going on, where people are convinced that the Kyokai is clearly operating in such-and-such manner and following this-or-that objective, because "it just makes sense" to the average Western brain, or because they've misinterpreted some event from the past, or because they've failed to take into account that "the Kyokai" is made up of various competing interests and is not a monolithic entity or an autocracy, etc. etc.. The problem is that when people are already getting the "why is something happening?" part so frequently wrong, then any speculation about "what is likely going to happen?" turns into a complete crapshoot that doesn't really serve to inform anybody of anything. And I'll be the first to admit that I'm as likely to fall prey to these mistakes as the next person, so anybody reading my posts is right to be just as skeptical of my opinions as of anything else they read about sumo somewhere. That said, there are places of sumo discussion out there where the signal-to-noise ratio is significantly worse than here on the forum, and it's often easy to tell when somebody new to the forum has previously spent a lot of time at such places, just based on how many things they think they know about sumo that are simply wrong. 14 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,969 Posted March 27, 2018 /me needs to contact Exil for being able to add five likes to a single post 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Morty 1,495 Posted March 28, 2018 (edited) 14 hours ago, Asashosakari said: I don't know if this is what Pandaazuma was getting at, but the issue with a lot of the speculation in sumo fandom (and this isn't directed at you specifically) is that it is based on assumptions that are simply taken on faith, not supported with any actual facts. The vast majority of the time when somebody claims something along the lines of "The Kyokai is desperate for another Japanese yokozuna", what the person is actually saying is "I believe the Kyokai should be desperate for another Japanese yokozuna, because I would be if I were them". The "desperate for a Japanese Yokozuna" thing also isn't born out by evidence either. For example Kisenosato had Yok standard winning numbers for years before getting a yusho and they made him wait until he actually got a yusho - his ascension to that rank was not unprecedented nor unusual based on his record but he had to get a yusho first. There have been other chances for a Japanese Yok (Kaio anyone???) or to get rid of those pesky Mongolians who have been wrecking things for years and they haven't done that either (until those Mongolians did something that absolutely couldn't be excused). If they were so anti-Mongolian Kak would never have got the rope based on his Tsuna run. The powers that be have simply rewarded the best wrestlers with the rope, regardless of nationality. If they are desperate for Japanese Yok (and they may well be) they are simply not prepared to degrade the quality of the rank in order to get one. Edited March 28, 2018 by Morty 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yorikiried by fate 2,028 Posted March 28, 2018 (edited) While one might dismiss the hardcore conspiracy theories like you guys do here in a pretty informed, well-thought-through and sober ways (no irony here whatsoever), the forces struggling within the NSK nevertheless produce outcomes that at least hint at certain angles, needs and policies. Without any inside knowledge I could still come to the (timeline-like) conclusions that: Futahaguro led to the strengthening of voices leaning toward a strict two-yusho-view. Two-yusho view seems to work fine: Seven promotions in a bit more than a decade after Futahaguro's exit. No need to change anything. Konishiki would be a candidate (but foreigner!), but hey! we prefer two consecutive yusho [Interlude: Akebono's acceptance (based on consecutive yusho; damn!) opened the door for the furries] Let's not change it, otherwise even more foreign Yoks will emerge Two-yusho-view still strong while Takanohana (as last Japanese Yok; Musashimaru doesn't count) still around -> Kaio fucked None of the Japanese Ozeki get even close anymore. Japanese Ozeki (and public interest) decline (for a long time with the help of a lot of friends). Banzuke void of Japanese Yokozuna AND Ozeki! Miraculous emergence of the BIG FUCKING THREE! None of them does anything much apart from being dragged to two yusho. Follow ups disappointing and nowhere near a consectutive yusho. Kakuryu strolls along and delivers the textbook yusho-equivalent performance. Heads are being scratched. The majority now leans to Let's break the practice of the last two and a half decades, because a) it makes sense with the current case and b) no-one of our boys will otherwise get anything. Finally, Kisenosato bumbles to the poisoned rank. From this point (aka now), the immediate future handling of these topics seems a bit blurred, IMHO. I'm not sure if I make any sense here. My thesis is only that even if the NSK can do what it wants, it is nevertheless slave to its own established practices that are evolving slowly over time and in reaction to general developments. That includes intermediary outcomes that might be deemed unwanted by the individuals that make up the sum of the voices. Which is not surprising from a communication theory point of view, as that is the way of all social systems. Edited March 28, 2018 by yorikiried by fate Fuck-up in the original Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ALAKTORN 346 Posted March 28, 2018 ^Kakuryū got the rope way before Kisenosato. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rhyen 1,840 Posted March 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, ALAKTORN said: ^Kakuryū got the rope way before Kisenosato. The Big Three probably refers to Asashoryu, Hakuho & Harumafuji? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yorikiried by fate 2,028 Posted March 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, ALAKTORN said: ^Kakuryū got the rope way before Kisenosato. You are right of course. I'll try to fit into my line of reasoning. 1 minute ago, rhyen said: The Big Three probably refers to Asashoryu, Hakuho & Harumafuji? Not at all. I mean the Awesome Nihon Triumvirate Goeidogikusato. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dapeng 235 Posted March 28, 2018 a little statistics: The result 12-3 ~10% for the cup. 13-2 ~50% for the cup. 14-1 ~90% for the cup -------------------------------------- These statistics posted by a member of this forum is very telling. 14 wins can be considered as yusho equivalent, but 13 wins can't be. Thus Kakuryu's promotion followed the traditional "two consecutive yusho or yusho equivalent". Kisenosato's promotion was the only exception of the "two consecutive yusho or yusho equivalent" after Futahaguro, however, Kisenosato had a long history of excellent performance and multiple 13 wins basho, in addition, NSK and the whole country was in dear need of a Japan-born yokozuna. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,969 Posted March 28, 2018 1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said: Now, instantly Kakuryu pops up and achieves something similar or even slightly better than Kisenosato. No way to talk yourself out of it, I guess. You're talking about Takayasu, I guess. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,969 Posted March 28, 2018 Oh, and please mind your language. I just issued a warning recently for a similar matter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yorikiried by fate 2,028 Posted March 28, 2018 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said: You're talking about Takayasu, I guess. That was edited already and commented, as I had a severe memory loss it seems. Race condition with our posts, I guess. 32 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said: Oh, and please mind your language. I just issued a warning recently for a similar matter. I do mind my language all the time, otherwise I would write stuff like "Blabbeldibidobbelidu". So what could you possibly mean, pray? Edited March 28, 2018 by yorikiried by fate Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Atenzan 1,081 Posted March 29, 2018 What if Herr by fate actually meant "the big f-ing three", i.e., the three rikishi most prolific in the non-hikiotoshi variety of pulling, nudge nudge wink wink. I'm guessing Endou, Ura and Ikioi? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yorikiried by fate 2,028 Posted March 29, 2018 No. Them I call The Drag Pack. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites