Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2018

[RabidJohn 1,232]

2 hours ago, Stein said:

Kisenosato s career is not over yet...

I believe it is. I reckon his 'next time it's make or break' statement was getting the fans ready for the fact that it's over.

[Rigel 62]

The decision not to undergo surgery to repair his shoulder and then fully rehab it should go down in history as one of the worst decisions in the history of the sport.

[Chankomafuji 51]

When was the last time that a M1 did not get promoted with a 9-6 score, or even with 8-7? It will be very unfortunate, but I too expect Tamawashi to stay as M1, only because he is from the West. 

[Asashosakari 16,847]

9 minutes ago, Chankomafuji said:

When was the last time that a M1 did not get promoted with a 9-6 score, or even with 8-7? It will be very unfortunate, but I too expect Tamawashi to stay as M1, only because he is from the West. 

Tochinoshin moved M1w->M1e back in 2015 (virtually the same overall situation as this time), and M2e->M1e last year.

[Rigel 62]

Yeah, at 9-6, they arent going to toss Mitakeumi out of the Sanyaku to make room. You also need to probably get to 11 or 12 wins before we can start to wonder if extra slots might be created, like if Kaisei were M2, and if Endo and Tamawashi both had 11 or 12 wins, they could then toss out Mitakeumi to make room for 2, but then they'd have a possibly interesting decision as to whether they need to create a 3rd komosubi slot.

I imagine that mathematically it would be difficult to have that many wins in the high maegashira without causing at least 3 MK in sanyaku, unless they just obliterated M3-M5.

[Bumpkin 438]

Asashosakari; Where's day 15?

[lackmaker 400]

He's having a lie down because of the prospect of another Aminishiki promotion.

[Gurowake 3,485]

Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyu, and Chiyomaru all look to be ranked pretty near each other on the next banzuke, which will really mess with scheduling patterns.  They'll likely all be just outside the joi and thus have most of their matches against people ranked below them, and with two of their normal opponents being in their heya (and Chiyonokuni probably also within the typical range), they'll probably get some rather low ranked opponents for where they'll be ranked.  Maybe they'll be more likely to fill in the schedules when a lower joi rikishi needs a match to not make it ridiculous.

Okinoumi and Hokutofuji will probably be close; Tochiozan and Aoiyama too.  And Daishomaru and Daiamami.  It might be a really weird first few days' schedule.

Edited March 26, 2018 by Gurowake

[maorencze 136]

It bears notion that GTB attempts for May are gonna be quite a hell (even compared to "usual")

[rhyen 1,584]

10 hours ago, lackmaker said:

He's having a lie down because of the prospect of another Aminishiki promotion.

Nah, he is bugging the shimpan’s deliberation room as we speak.

[Asashosakari 16,847]

On 3/25/2018 at 23:22, Bumpkin said:

Asashosakari; Where's day 15?

I think they had it in Osaka yesterday. I do believe I've mentioned before that the final update needs more prep time than the others, and has thus been posted on Monday before.

Anyway, I sort of expected the world to end after Akiseyama won a match with kirikaeshi, but surprisingly that didn't happen. Therefore...

Day 15 (results, text-only results, final records):

    13-2  Kakuryu        Y1   Hakuho        kyujo
    kyujo Kisenosato     Y2
    12-3  Takayasu       O    Goeido         9-6

Kakuryu's yusho-winning score has turned out to be 13-2 (for the first time) after a very entertaining if rather messy two-match musubi no ichiban with Takayasu. The ozeki has completed his second straight 12-3 record with that victory, clearly asserting himself as the better of the two current men at the second-highest rank. As voiced elsewhere I'm very doubtful that any sort of Natsu basho result will lead to a promotion to yokozuna though, considering he spent these last two tournaments almost entirely in chasing mode. (The only days that he wasn't trailing the yusho lead by 2+ wins were Hatsu Days 1-5, Haru Day 1 and Haru Day 15. The only days that he was actually leading were Hatsu Days 1-3.)

Ozeki Goeido meanwhile has concluded his home basho with three straight losses against other high-rankers and a mediocre 9-6 overall score. Sekiwake Mitakeumi was the one to vanquish him on the final day, and he has probably saved his sanyaku presence at the last minute, although the first makekoshi in 8 tournaments stands.

The 9-5 duel between sekiwake Tochinoshin and komusubi Ichinojo has been an entertaining matchup ever since Ichinojo arrived on the scene, and senshuraku was no exception. Tochinoshin eventually prevailed to pick up his double digit-clinching win, which should serve him in good stead for his ozeki promotion challenge in May. It's been discussed all over the place, so just to summarize: As always the bare minimum of 10 wins to conclude an ozeki run will apply, and given the somewhat non-standard nature of his set of results, more than that may be required.

Personally, I think Tochinoshin's Haru exploits were excellent, considering all the time-consuming activities following a yusho victory (particularly for a first-timer) and the leg troubles he suffered shortly before the basho, and if he can keep his physical condition together I wouldn't be surprised if he clears the promotion targets with room to spare. A final bonus this basho has been the awarding of a second straight shukun-sho, the customary result of being the only eligible rikishi to defeat the yusho winner. 

In any case he will be attacking the promotion from the "proper" position, Sekiwake East. Ichinojo is joining him on the West side of the rank. The komusubi slots appear settled as well, only their order may be subject to some uncertainty - any duo other than Mitakeumi and Endo would be a major departure from the last 10 or so years worth of precedent. Their resistance to creating more lower sanyaku slots is likely to claim Tamawashi as its newest victim, which is especially tough after he even scored a 9th shiroboshi on Day 15 against Chiyomaru. Endo has also finished 9-6 with a loss against KK-clinching Shohozan, but got to pick up the second gino-sho of his career anyway.

Long-time yusho contender Kaisei may also feel a bit hard done by with his next ranking position (likely M1w), but there's a bit less sympathy to be had here considering he was fighting outside the joi (and picked up a fusensho along the way, to boot). His first-week heroics did earn him a kanto-sho for the third time in his career. Senshuraku saw him paired up with fellow 11-3 jun-yusho contender Ikioi, and the Brazilian scored a decisive victory to claim a share of the runner-up record alongside ozeki Takayasu, also denying nominated Ikioi a kanto-sho of his own in the process.

     7-8  Mitakeumi      S    Tochinoshin   10-5
     9-6  Ichinojo       K    Chiyotairyu    4-11 (x)

(o)  9-6  Endo           M1   Tamawashi      9-6
                         M2
                         M3
                         M4
                         M5
    12-3  Kaisei         M6

The maegashira demotion / juryo promotion race turned into the night of the living dead somehow, with absolutely everyone involved losing their matches, except Aminishiki who was matched up with another candidate in Myogiryu where somebody had to win. Aminishiki earned his final-day kachikoshi with that and has certainly clinched another return to the top division, where he will be competing in his 97th tournament. He's joining Kyokutaisei (loss against Chiyonoo), Takekaze (beat Seiro after losing 4 days straight) and Sadanoumi to make it 4 definite promotions.

Kyokushuho and Meisei also had the opportunity to finish 8-7 for a likely promotion but blew it against Yago and Akiseyama respectively. (That kirikaeshi...) Low-ranked quasi-candidates Gagamaru and Kotoeko didn't fare any better and it's fair to say that their final records don't actually look worthy of promotion at all. On the maegashira side we now have Myogiryu on a demotable record, and Nishikigi arguably even on a must-demote record after he fell to 5-10 at the hands (or feet) of Chiyoshoma and his hassotobi tachiai - he would have been an iffy keep even on 6-9.

The juryo yusho decision opened Day 15 with three contenders, all facing 7-7 opponents. Kotoeko was up first, lost to Takagenii (who KK'ed with that), was thus unable to book his spot in a potential winners' playoff and now had to hope that the other two guys would lose as well to put him back in. No such luck, however. Sadanoumi showed strong sumo again and sent Homarefuji to MK to clinch a playoff appearance at minimum, and Akiseyama made the 11-4 playoff a reality by beating Meisei. And a good one it was, with both fighting hard and Sadanoumi muscling Akiseyama's bulk off the dohyo in the end. A well-deserved championship for the IMHO best all-around performer in juryo over the past two weeks, and I'm hoping he can bring that kind of form to makuuchi again as well. Altogether it's his third career title following earlier ones in sandanme and makushita.

The sandanme playoff participants had stepped on the dohyo right before, and while the match didn't last long it was still the expected battle of two fairly evenly matched contenders. 21-year-old Ohata walked away with the sandanme championship honours, his first yusho in any division. It remains to be seen if he can establish himself in makushita this time after last year's foray into the third division didn't last long. Defeated playoff participant Hisanotora will be reaching a new career-high rank in upper makushita at the ripe age of 29, as previously mentioned.

Back to the maegashira and juryo underachievers, though:

                         M5   Onosho        kyujo (?)
                         ...
                         M12  Kotoyuki     1-13-1 (x)
                         M13
                         M14  Nishikigi      5-10 (?)
(x) 5-7-3 Sokokurai      M15  Myogiryu       6-9  (?)
                         M16  Hidenoumi      3-12 (x)
                         M17  ---

(o)  8-7  Kyokutaisei    J1   Takekaze       9-6  (o)
(o)  8-7  Aminishiki     J2   Kyokushuho     7-8  (x)
(x)  7-8  Meisei         J3
(o) 11-4  Sadanoumi      J4
(?)  8-7  Gagamaru       J5
                         J6
                         J7
(?) 10-5  Kotoeko        J8

There's already been some discussion of the issue here on the thread, and I'd like to offer an additional possibility not mentioned yet: If they're really hell-bent on demoting absent Onosho - and recent history suggests that they might be - but don't want to hand out ultra-lucky promotions to Gagamaru or Kotoeko, then Nishikigi just might be surviving yet again. Keeping him in a maegashira rank wouldn't be that much more egregious than keeping Myogiryu, and they could well decide to go easy on both as a package deal. (This situation from 2006 comes to mind as a very rough approximation, including a 0-win guy getting dropped to juryo against most people's expectations.)

Anyway, it's all rather messed up, and outside of the fact that 4 will definitely be going up and 3 will definitely be going down, there's lots of room for arguments to be made for any number of scenarios to deal with the rest of the involved rikishi on both sides.

The makushita-juryo crossover score stood at 0-3 for Days 12 to 14, but senshuraku saw the lower-rankers rally with shiroboshi for all three who were put into action. The most important result of the day was Asabenkei's victory to clinch a 6-1 final record, which has not only secured his return to the paid ranks after a year and a half away, but has also cost Amakaze his sekitori position after three years up there, including a one-time makuuchi appearance. Sadly, his injured legs and overall sluggish movements conjure up memories of Masunoyama falling off the career cliff three years ago, so I'm not sure if Amakaze's slide will be ending in high makushita. 29-year-old Asabenkei for his part was previously in juryo for exactly one year, where he looked like a future juryo mainstay for four basho and then collapsed to a 9-21 record in the next two.

Other senshuraku action saw once highly regarded Chiyonoumi collect win #5 at Enho's expense, and while that's almost certainly not going to lead to promotion this time he will be put into an excellent position to go up to juryo with a simple kachikoshi in May. Akua also collected a crucial victory to finish 4-3, sending Tobizaru to makekoshi at 7-8.

(x)  3-12 Amakaze        J7
                         J8
                         J9
                         J10
                         J11
                         J12
                         J13
(x) 3-6-6 Takayoshitoshi J14  Enho           4-11 (x)

(o)  6-1  Hakuyozan      Ms1  Wakatakakage   4-3  (o)
                         Ms2
     4-3  Tochihiryu     Ms3  Asabenkei      6-1  (o)
                         Ms4
     5-2  Chiyonoumi     Ms5  Akua           4-3

They could decide to promote Tochihiryu and/or Chiyonoumi, but it would require excess demotions for either Tsurugisho (J7w 4-11) or Tobizaru (J13e 7-8) to make happen, so it is quite unlikely. Neither candidate has posted a record that screams "promote now!" anyway.

I believe that's all for here. Another exciting basho with a well-deserved makuuchi winner in the books, the juryo promotions to be announced in less than 36 hours from now, and the rikishi set to trek on another jungyo tour soon. Thanks for reading!

Edited March 26, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 4,906]

7 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

As voiced elsewhere I'm very doubtful that any sort of Natsu basho result will lead to a promotion to yokozuna though, considering he spent these last two tournaments almost entirely in chasing mode. (The only days that he wasn't trailing the yusho lead by 2+ wins were Hatsu Days 1-5, Haru Day 1 and Haru Day 15. The only days that he was actually leading were Hatsu Days 1-3.)

Are you really sure this is a factor? For me a jun-yusho is a jun-yusho, no matter how late in the basho it came to be.

[Asashosakari 16,847]

12 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Are you really sure this is a factor? For me a jun-yusho is a jun-yusho, no matter how late in the basho it came to be.

If a rikishi is stacking them up like Kise did, it might cease to matter, but for a possible first-time tsuna challenge? I could well be wrong, but I don't see them treat these 12-3's as particularly meaningful results, let alone as "yusho-equivalent". They'll be a nice bit of extra support if he goes something like 13-2 Y, 13-2 J next, where people would otherwise debate if those two results are strong enough on their own.

[Atenzan 1,074]

Thanks for the posts, top draw as usual.

Prep time aside, Asashosakari, or any other Asashosakari for that matter, is allowed to be busy, have a life or just take a break sometimes. 

[ryafuji 760]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Are you really sure this is a factor? For me a jun-yusho is a jun-yusho, no matter how late in the basho it came to be.

It may a jun yusho but it’s not a yusho equivalent, which requires being in contention on senshuraku. 

[Bumpkin 438]

12 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

It may a jun yusho but it’s not a yusho equivalent, which requires being in contention on senshuraku. 

Excellent point.

[Asojima 2,839]

It's amazing how much uninformed blather regarding yokozuna and ozeki promotion criteria get regurgitated after each and every basho.

[Bumpkin 438]

12 minutes ago, Asojima said:

It's amazing how much uninformed blather regarding yokozuna and ozeki promotion criteria get regurgitated after each and every basho.

OK. Inform us? 

[Asojima 2,839]

7 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

OK. Inform us? 

The kyokai is free to promote, ignore, suspend or fire anyone it desires given the exigencies of the given moment.  They decide what is in the best interests of sumo and concoct a set of immediate criteria to justify their decision.  The criteria for any given decision is not applicable to any other decision.  Everything is done and justified in the here and now.  If they think it would be nice to promote Hattorizakura to Ozeki, they are free to do so.

[robnplunder 945]

Yokozuna talk for Takayasu?   He needs an yusho in the next basho to be considered.    And I think it has to be a convincing yusho.   Just a few basho ago, he was facing a kadoban.   

 

But something that I've not thought about is Tochinoshin's possible promotion to Ozeki.   Asasho's post reminded me of how close Tochi is to the promotion.   A decent showing in the next basho may clinch his promotion I hope.   Then there is Ternofuji.   It's sad to see him keep going down.    He's got one step closer to Makushita.  

Edited March 27, 2018 by robnplunder

[Washuyama 587]

My guess regarding Tochinoshin's Ozeki promotion requirements are he needs 11 wins in Natsu.  He may get in with 10, but 11 should be able to quiet any naysayers.  Ever since he's bee in Makuuchi, I've looked forward to the Hakuho-Tochinoshin match-up, and while most have been entertaining, there's still a big, fat do-nut on one side of the win column.  'Noshin's recent performances have me again anticipating this match-up.  I truly hope both rikishi are on their "A" game for Natsu (although part of me would rather see Hak bring his C or D game).

[robnplunder 945]

12 minutes ago, Washuyama said:

Ever since he's bee in Makuuchi, I've looked forward to the Hakuho-Tochinoshin match-up, and while most have been entertaining, there's still a big, fat do-nut on one side of the win column.  'Noshin's recent performances have me again anticipating this match-up.  I truly hope both rikishi are on their "A" game for Natsu (although part of me would rather see Hak bring his C or D game).

 

This reminds of me the vast difference between the big 4 (Harauma, Kak, Kise, Hak) yokozuna vs whoever can replace them as Yokozuna in near future.  Those 4 at top form are far better than any rikishi in Makuuchi division now.   No one worthy of replacing any of them for Yokozuna title ....

[Washuyama 587]

Just now, robnplunder said:

No one worthy of replacing any of them for Yokozuna title ....

I totally agree.  IMHO, Hakuho is still at the top with Kak and Kise a distant 2nd/3rd.  But all 3 are losing the battle with time and injuries.

[Rocks 1,731]

30 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Yokozuna talk for Takayasu?   He needs an yusho in the next basho to be considered.    And I think it has to be a convincing yusho.   Just a few basho ago, he was facing a kadoban.   

Yes, he was kadoban, once, after pulling out of a basho on the 3rd day with an injury. The next basho he came back and got his KK, still injured, before dropping out.

Since joining the sanyaku on a permanent basis in July 2016 Takayasu has had one basho with 8 wins, 1 with 9, 1 with 10, 3 with 11 and 3 with 12.  To go with that add 2 Gino-sho, 2 Kanto-sho, 1 Shuken-sho and 2 Jun-Yausho.  Against that he has had one MK at 7-8 and 1 kyujo MK. Not counting that 1 kyujo basho he's averaged 10.4 wins a basho since 7/2016. Takayasu may not have been Ozeki that long but he  isn't some marginal one.

[lackmaker 400]

5 hours ago, Asojima said:

It's amazing how much uninformed blather regarding yokozuna and ozeki promotion criteria get regurgitated after each and every basho.

Well you're not wrong but clearly it's all part of the enjoyment for a lot of folk.