Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2018

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

4 hours ago, Stein said:

a yusho win in may and at least 12 wins later in July would make it, but nothing below that i am afraid, or we might have an Onokuni case.

 

Hey, Onokuni wasn't actually *that* bad, as Yokozuna! A lot better than Kisenosato...

[Rocks 1,807]

3 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Hey, Onokuni wasn't actually *that* bad, as Yokozuna! A lot better than Kisenosato...

Considering the times  and then injury for Okokuni I would put him on par with Kakuryu. 

[RabidJohn 1,663]

7 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Hey, Onokuni wasn't actually *that* bad, as Yokozuna! A lot better than Kisenosato...

They both got a yusho as an ozeki and one as a yokozuna, which I think is pretty much on a par. At least Kisenosato hasn't posted a MK as a yokozuna yet...

 

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

3 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

At least Kisenosato hasn't posted a MK as a yokozuna yet...

I count four. You can't really blame Onokuni for refusing to play the kyujo game once.

[RabidJohn 1,663]

1 minute ago, Jakusotsu said:

I count four. You can't really blame Onokuni for refusing to play the kyujo game once.

If you're counting basho sitting out as MK, Onokuni had six (seven if you include the one he pulled out of midway to go intai), after posting his 7-8 at Aki 89. And I do blame him for not pulling out of that one, too!

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

...and apart from the aforementioned yusho I count nine double digits scores for Onokuni as Yokozuna, including two jun-yusho. Where's your Kisenosato now?

[Gurowake 3,915]

2 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

...and apart from the aforementioned yusho I count nine double digits scores for Onokuni as Yokozuna, including two jun-yusho. Where's your Kisenosato now?

If Kisenosato had managed to win just a few more bouts years before, he would have been Yokozuna sooner and would have had a more impressive Yokozuna career.  But because it took so long for him to finally string together enough wins within a short enough time frame, most of his good results are as an Ozeki.

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

Only stating facts, pal, not dabbling in speculations. Case closed.

[Sakura 1,472]

Wait, this is still the promotion and demotion discussion thread...

[Senkoho 552]

Well... Nishikigi, Kyokushuho, Meisei, Gagamaru, Kotoeko all lost today. What are they going to do now? Will they keep Myogiryu in Makuuchi?

[Qwerry 25]

Gaga and Kotoeko  UP?  ^) 

[jalil_the_swan 25]

Mitakeumi's sanyaku position is 90% safe. The last time a non-haridashi sekiwake went 7-8 and was demoted to hiramaku happened after Hatsu 1992, when both Takatoriki and Kotonishiki were demoted to give way to Akebono and Takahanada. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=S&form1_wins=7&form1_losses=8&offset=50 query, http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=199201 banzuke for Hatsu 1992.

My guess for Natsu 2018 sanyaku: 

Tochinoshin (100%), Ichinojo (90%)/Kaisei (10%) S

Mitakeumi (90%)/Ichinojo (10%), Kaisei (60%)/Endo (39,9%)/Abi (0,1%) K

[Chankomafuji 51]

4 minutes ago, jalil_the_swan said:

My guess for Natsu 2018 sanyaku: 

Tochinoshin (100%), Ichinojo (90%)/Kaisei (10%) S

Mitakeumi (90%)/Ichinojo (10%), Kaisei (60%)/Endo (39,9%)/Abi (0,1%) K

And where is Tamawashi?  

Edited March 25, 2018 by Chankomafuji

[jalil_the_swan 25]

9 minutes ago, Chankomafuji said:

And where is Tamawashi?  

Oh, I completely forgot about the guy. 

Then, it's Kaisei (60%), Endo (20%), Tamawashi (19,9%), Abi (0,1%) for the second K spot.

[Stein 30]

14 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Hey, Onokuni wasn't actually *that* bad, as Yokozuna! A lot better than Kisenosato...

Kisenosato s career is not over yet, so we cant really talk.

He won his yokozuna debut while having a career ending injury, and he still tries to get back to his former self.

I Still believe that, with proper rest, he can, maybe, do it again.

And he is, in my opinion, far bettter wrestler than Onokuni.

[Stein 30]

15 hours ago, Chankomafuji said:

I have developed an explanation for myself and it will be really hard for someone to convince me otherwise. And my explanation is mentality.
It is very important to distinguish us, the fans outside Japan and the fans in Japan. While we love sumo, we can not experience what the Japanese fans can - watch the tournaments live, visit the heyas, talk to the rikishi, take a hand-print as a gift and so much more.  This creates the neutral fan. Fan who does not certainly support mainly one rikishi. 
The "hate", as you put it, was always out there not only Goeido, he is just one example. This happens to every higher ranked rikishi who is expected to perform or performs good. The neutral fan expects big news, drama, unexpected winners.
In January, when Kakuryu beat Tochinoshin, the general opinion (based on the 2 most "populated" streams where I am watching the basho, a youtube stream and mbovo's stream) was that this is Kakuryu's yusho. Not even a small doubt. Things changed dramatically when Tamawashi defeated Kakuryu on day 11. Suddenly everyone became a Tochinoshin's fan. And not just that. Suddenly everyone started hating Kakuryu. (Of course, when I say everyone, I mean the majority, I put "everyone" to create the actual feeling). Every next bout that Kakuryu lost there was a major hype and satisfaction. When Tochinoshin won the yusho he became the hero. Why? Because he had so many fans expecting him to win? No. It is for one reason only. He was a Maegashira 3. This is the effect when the fans are neutral. This exists in every other sport too. When the underdog wins, he (or they if a team, football for example) wins the neutral fan's sympathy. This continued for the march basho too. The big red machine Tochinoshin was once again the people's champ. Now with a lot more fans, the cheering for him became more reasonable. There was one slight difference this time - he lost early matches and for a reason left the feeling  that its not longer possible to win the yusho. And what happened? We have a new hero! Takayasu. 
Now, I'll give several quotes before the Kakuryu - Goeido bout  from mbovo's stream (it's still there but it will probably be gone when the 15 day of the basho starts streaming) so you know exactly what I am talking about.
"i dont know outcome of this match tho, im not in the future, so... ugh, go go goeido"
"i don't want a day 14 yusho so..."
"yeah, go goeido! make day 15 more than a victory lap"
"day 14 yusho is boring"
"do whatever you have to do, goeido..."
Yes No I see why. kakuryu must go down."
"Hope it´s quick, i feel dirty supporting Goeido."
And after the bout, "damn. anyway, i can go back to hating Goeido. Congratulations Kakuryu !!!!"
Of course, there were people cheering for Kakuryu too.

Do you see my point now? It might seem like hate, but I believe it is something a little different. I can't find the exact word, but it is simply that the fans (the fans I called "neutral" fans) want underdogs to win.  Of course, I can't call Takayasu an underdog, but an ozeki is ozeki, a yokozuna is a yokozuna.

This is why I want to suggest this type of fans, the neutral fans, to pick a favourite rikishi and stick to him. Life will be much easier when you don't have to constantly feel the need every rikishi in good shape to lose. This is a major, a game changing difference between the fans in and outside of Japan. 
If there is anyone out there who disagrees, I'll be glad to see how you see things. This is my opinion only.

I really enjoyed the reading, very elaborated, too, thanks! And you are right, when Buster Douglas knocked Mike Tyson out, everybody was a Buster Douglas fan from the get go, before that, everyone thought he was "another chubby heavyweight who is getting knocked out inside 2 rounds".

The neutral fan is the embodiment of the modern world hypocrisy.

[YoungSumo 93]

The San'yaku ranks being SE Tochinoshin, SW Ichinojo, KE Mitakeumi and KW Endo look pretty logical to me. Tamawashi is not going to jump past Endo when they have the same record and Kaisei going from M6 to M1 with a 12-3 is entirely reasonable as well. 

[ryafuji 807]

So is Aminishiki definitely up with his KK? Was that a straight exchange bout with Myogiryu? Or will Onosho make  way? 

Edited March 25, 2018 by ryafuji
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[Jejima 1,313]

Any chance of Tochinoshin getting promoted to Ozeki?  He has 33 wins over the past 3 bashos, including a yusho, with the last being  10 wins at Sekiwake...   (I guess not.)

[Gurowake 3,915]

Sokokurai, Nishikigi, Kotoyuki, and Hidenoumi pretty much must go down, as even having one more win wouldn't give them the numbers to stay.  After promoting Amnishiki, Kyokutaisei, Takekaze, and Sadanoumi, the pickings are very very slim.   Kotoeko has theoretically a better shot by-the-numbers than Gagamaru for Onosho's place, and somewhat recently we've a similar situation where a 10-5 J8e gets the nod over 8-7 J5e, although I think promoting someone from the bottom half of the division with just a 10-5 seems out of place.  Both of them are really weak to promote, but Akiseyama was promoted in very similar circumstances.  Osunaarashi was nominally one spot higher on the banzuke than Onosho, but there are two more maegashira now than then, so Onosho is really one spot further from demotion, while Gagamaru is one higher than Akiseyama was.  Given Kotoeko with an even stronger numerical claim than Gagamaru, whose is pretty much identical to what Akiseyama's was, one would expect Kotoeko to get promoted in favor of Onosho.  Note I'm not saying *I* would expect it, but that's just what the historical record implies; there's no guarantee that they'll follow the same path they did in those two linked banzuke creation sessions.

Myogiryu for the other of Gagamaru and Kotoeko is also possible, and maybe even more likely than them pushing Onosho out, but it's hard to know exactly how to compare rikishi being dropped after a full kyujo tournament from half-way up in the division with those who competed and needed one more win ranked near the bottom.  I think in general they "want" to drop full kyujo sekitori either 12 or 13 ranks, which would put him to around the same place Myogiryu is "going" to (M18w), maybe a bit higher.  Anti-kyujo sentiment may be a factor against Onosho, while Myogiryu losing his last match against someone in Juryo is a factor against him.

On my initial draft of GTB that I did before doing the above analysis, I have them both staying in Makuuchi, with Onosho at M16w and Myogiryu at M17e, but that could easily change.

[Atenzan 1,074]

16 minutes ago, Jejima said:

Any chance of Tochinoshin getting promoted to Ozeki?  He has 33 wins over the past 3 bashos, including a yusho, with the last being  10 wins at Sekiwake...   (I guess not.)

I'm afraid that his 9-6 was too low down the banzuke to merit consideration. The ongoing debate is whether his yusho counts as part of his 33 or not. I say it probably does. 

[Gurowake 3,915]

21 minutes ago, Jejima said:

Any chance of Tochinoshin getting promoted to Ozeki?  He has 33 wins over the past 3 bashos, including a yusho, with the last being  10 wins at Sekiwake...   (I guess not.)

If he was a Bench rikishi, sure.

[Bumpkin 438]

32 minutes ago, Jejima said:

Any chance of Tochinoshin getting promoted to Ozeki?  He has 33 wins over the past 3 bashos, including a yusho, with the last being  10 wins at Sekiwake...   (I guess not.)

Now? After Haru? No chance. However, Tochinoshin (14-1 Y, 10-5) is now on an Ozeki run. 11+ wins in May should do it. 10 wins, probably not. 

[Tenshinhan 1,599]

Is it actually guaranteed that those 14 wins are counting at all? I mean usually the wins are expected from sanyaku territory...

And in addition to that: Does it play a role that two Yokozuna were absent in January & March? (no "full" joi schedule for Tochinoshin...)

[Rigel 62]

54 minutes ago, Jejima said:

Any chance of Tochinoshin getting promoted to Ozeki?  He has 33 wins over the past 3 bashos, including a yusho, with the last being  10 wins at Sekiwake...   (I guess not.)

No way, his November basho does not "count" because its too far down the maegashira ranks. January "counts" since he fought everyone and won the yusho, so he's definitely on some kind of an Ozeki run for May. How many wins he needs, whether its 10, 11, or more, is hard to say. We probably can't simply rely on the 33/3 rule for May since January was unusal.

Edited March 25, 2018 by Rigel