maorencze

First new Yokozuna during 2018-2019

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I'm not sure if we will see any new Yokozuna in the next two years. Now if all of the yokozuna retire and we're left with a serious vacuum up top then maybe someone like Takayasu would be able to put together two consecutive wins, but I'm not positive.  

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7 hours ago, Stein said:

That guy is certainly not even ozeki material...but maybe you were just joking...

No joke, Jack! 4 straight zenshos to the top! Gambateeee Ichiiii!!!! 

 

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11 hours ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I'll see your Yokzuna and raise you a tennis grand slam.

The tennis grand slam is more the equivalent of winning 6 bashos in a year. Getting to no.1 in tennis and yokozuna are sort of the same and we know which are the hardest to achieve.

Edited by lackmaker
Grammar

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6 hours ago, maorencze said:

I'm with you on him - Enho may prove to be too small I'm afraid, Makuuchi for sure but then the ceiling is a big question mark and I'd say that Mainoumi/Toyonoshima is the best he can hope for (more probably Satoyama/Ishiura)

I think Ishiura is a good comparison because he also had an extremely impressive run from start to high makushita, almost as impressive as Enho's. Then it took quite a bit of time to get out of makushita and into juryo, and even longer to get into makuuchi. He spent a year and a half in juryo getting 8-7 and 7-8 results.

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The lack of consistency among some of the new guys is incredible, Hokutofuji in particular. It could be a while yet before we get another Yokozuna. Takayasu this time seemed like someone soon, but he seems to be quite inconsistent. A lot of the young guys I couldn't see as a Yokozuna until a lot later in their careers. 

Takayasu, 8-5-2 - 12-3-J

Mitakeumi 7-0, 8-7

Hokutofuji, 11-4-J Kyushu 4-11, beat Hakuho lost to Aminishiki

Takakeisho 11-4-J Kyushu 5-10

 

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12 hours ago, Yukiarashi said:

The lack of consistency among some of the new guys is incredible, Hokutofuji in particular. It could be a while yet before we get another Yokozuna. Takayasu this time seemed like someone soon, but he seems to be quite inconsistent. A lot of the young guys I couldn't see as a Yokozuna until a lot later in their careers. 

Takayasu, 8-5-2 - 12-3-J

Mitakeumi 7-0, 8-7

Hokutofuji, 11-4-J Kyushu 4-11, beat Hakuho lost to Aminishiki

Takakeisho 11-4-J Kyushu 5-10

 

Seems to me Hokutofuji has health trouble quite often, I hope he doesn't end up being new Ikioi - nothing bad in itself, but he has much higher ceiling (as Ikioi had like 3-5yrs ago, I believe)

Actually all of them have a collection of minor (or slightly more than minor) ailments and while it's the same for the old guard, veterans learnt how to adjust already (those that have results, at least), so that's probably what they have to go through and learn how to cope with it to be able to challenge the top spots

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I'm going to agree with certain previous posters in that this is a really good time to become ozeki, rather than yokozuna. Picture your perennial joi, a Wakanosato character of sorts who's in a good place and putting up nice little 8-9 win bashos at sekiwake. If about three yokozuna or ozeki retire, get injured or don't show up and get replaced with maegashira 4s and 5s in your schedule, your 8s and 9s suddenly become very serious 10s, 11s and 12s. Mitakeumi should be licking his lips if he maintains the quality of sumo he showed in the first half. 

Yokozuna however is a completely different story. Being really good for 3 bashos doesn't cut it, you need to be the best or close enough. If just one of the other ozeki, a quality joi or even some Tochinoshin hits a really nice purple patch, you're back to square one, except if you take the long Kisenosato road. And actually becoming an ozeki before that takes plenty of time and effort. 

I say the most reasonable prediction that isn't "nobody" is Takayasu. Already ozeki and needs only a little bit of improvement to his sumo compared to someone like Hokutofuji. 

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On 31/1/2018 at 08:17, maorencze said:

From first 10 days of Hatsu, I would dare disagree with "not that good" - what he shown was a miracle, defeating even almost undefeatable (during Hatsu) eventual basho winner

@Asashosakari would you care to give here an educated guess for next Ozeki instead?

 Well, let's see how he copes with needing to return to body-demanding style of sumo to please YDC, no kachiage, no nekodamashi, no slap-sidestep-grab, none of those, or any of the others (as Bernard Black would say). From what I've seen during Hatsu and from skipping through Kinta's videos from last 10 basho where Hak was in attendance, it seems pretty obvious he can't do this the way he did in 2010-2014 anymore, his body is just not fully up to task. But I'll gladly stand corrected

Id say that he should *Very methaphorically* give the middle finger to the YDC council bulls***, they dont seem to have a problem when other yokozunas dont even show up  or show up just to get 4-5 :)

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Id love to see enho in the top 3 ranks...i believe that he has some of the things Ura was lacking, and he is so young...he can still put on a quite amount of bulk...

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53 minutes ago, Stein said:

Id love to see enho in the top 3 ranks...i believe that he has some of the things Ura was lacking, and he is so young...he can still put on a quite amount of bulk...

But will the bulk really help? I'd be worried then about his stability (similar problems to Takakeisho, being a bit prone to hatakikomi/hikiotoshi, could come).

Also, he is REALLY small, I'm afraid that too small...

But entertaining he is, and a good wrestler, technician and all, I presume Maegashira 4-6 as average career rank, with lower sany'aku peak

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I want to see how far Enho can go. I'm thinking he will be somewhat successful (meaning 8-7 over 15 days, not 15-0!) the first time he faces someone but his opponents will develop a strategy to defeat him when they face him again. I hope he can prove me wrong. I would like to see a small guy that can defeat the big guys.

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Enho was trending down as he progressed. Too fast up the banzuke. I expect him to MK in his sekitori debut and I don't expect he'll ever spend much time as a Makuuchi. I wish him a lot of luck though.

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Opponents may well adapt to him more than he adapts to them, but just because someone is unorthodox doesn't mean they lack abilities that will trouble opponents even if the opponents start to know what's coming. He also seems to have very quick reaction time during bouts, and being able to adjust on the fly like that makes it even tougher to pin someone down and start beating them simply through familiarity. In Hatsu he lost to one opponent he previously beat (Takayoshitoshi) and beat one opponent he previously lost to (Jokoryu), although if you count amateur matches then he also avenged a loss to Murata, who beat him in the round of 16 at the 2016 All Japans and prevented him from getting an SdTD qualification.

I think his lack of size will hold him back to an extent, but he's quick, skillful, and smart, and I think he can establish himself as a sekitori.

 

On 02/02/2018 at 05:59, Rocks said:

Enho was trending down as he progressed. Too fast up the banzuke. I expect him to MK in his sekitori debut and I don't expect he'll ever spend much time as a Makuuchi. I wish him a lot of luck though.

 

Whatever happens, I think he at least serves as inspiration for the really little guys. I remember you writing this in the Haru 2017 new recruits thread:

"167 cm? I'm sorry but this kid is going nowhere no matter how much weight he puts on"

Don't listen little guys!

Edited by Katooshu
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1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

I think his lack of size will hold him back to an extent, but he's quick, skillful, and smart, and I think he can establish himself as a sekitori.

His style also seems less injury-prone than Ura's contortionist approach, at least concerning really major injuries. Enho goes submarining like a lot of the shorter guys, but the crucial difference is that he does it not to look for an opening for a throw, but for an opening to rush the opponent (and himself) off the dohyo. That's a recipe to pick up lots of bruises, but perhaps it'll avoid the kind of knee wrecking incidents the others are always at risk for.

Of course, the question remains to be answered if his rushing style actually works against sekitori-level opponents.

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On 2. 2. 2018 at 17:09, Asashosakari said:

His style also seems less injury-prone than Ura's contortionist approach, at least concerning really major injuries. Enho goes submarining like a lot of the shorter guys, but the crucial difference is that he does it not to look for an opening for a throw, but for an opening to rush the opponent (and himself) off the dohyo. That's a recipe to pick up lots of bruises, but perhaps it'll avoid the kind of knee wrecking incidents the others are always at risk for.

Of course, the question remains to be answered if his rushing style actually works against sekitori-level opponents.

For that bull-rushing to work against sekitori he would need more mass, but then he would compromise his stability, therefore ending up somewhat hikiotoshi/hatakikomi prone

And to others - we shall probably see more Ozeki runs than serious tsuna runs, but that's normal. Also, someone must win those yusho and I'm willing to bet that being good over 3 basho in a timespan when noone really stands out may be enough to win one and then jun-yusho two with like 13-2, and that just barely could be enough (like, 13-2J, 14-1Y, 13-2J, with one of those possible doten loss)

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On 1/31/2018 at 00:28, Morty said:

Since the beginning of the six basho period (1958) there have only been 27 Yokozunae promoted. That is one every 2.2 years. But in the past 20 years there have only been 6 (thanks to the dominance of Asa and Hak) so more like one every 3.3 years. Kise was last year, so don't expect another one for a year or two. Becoming a Yokozuna is the hardest thing to achieve in world sport - that's why there have only been 72 of them since the 1700

I'm enjoying this discussion.  Great points here by Morty but he touches on a reason that these stats may be deceptive: dominance.  There will be another 11 tournaments before the end of 2019. Someone has to win them.  We may well be past the period of total dominanace by Hakuho that has made Yokozuna promotion near impossible.  As with any achievement in world sport, there is never a level playing field.  In the others sports quoted in this thread, golf and tennis, there have been times when to win consecutive  majors / slams you will have had to beat an all-time great, or two (in mens tennis you could argue 4 in recent times).  Other times not.  Sumo may be entering one of those "opportune" periods.   I think the odds are very much that somebody will step up and win a chunk of the tournaments Hakuho ducks.  Therefore I don't agree with the (better informed and well made) case for "Nobody".  Tochinoshin and Takayasu are both within tachiai distance of bullying tournaments when existing Yokozuna are not at their best or fittest - which is going to be much of the time.  I predict one of them will be Yokozuna before 2020.

Hardest thing to achieve in world sport?  Win all 3 grand tours in cycling in one year.  (never done)  Hold all 4 heavyweight boxing titles (never done).

Edited by VirtualSumo

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39 minutes ago, VirtualSumo said:

Hardest thing to achieve in world sport?  (...) Hold all 4 heavyweight boxing titles (never done).

Why limit it to just 4? Heck, I'm not that old and I still remember the time that barely anybody considered the WBO titles to be "real" world championships... Anyway, it's not for any sort of competition-based reasons that it's difficult to unify the various alphabet soup title belts in any boxing division, so that hardly fits in with what most people consider as a hard-to-achieve sporting feat. 

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9 hours ago, VirtualSumo said:

Hold all 4 heavyweight boxing titles (never done).

Totally off-topic, but Anthony Joshua is aiming to do just that in April.

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Hello everyone, a new member here.

I do not believe we will have a new Yokozuna anytime soon. Takayasu is yet to prove himself as a good ozeki. Now with all Yokozuna injured or not in good shape, he has a  good chance to shine. In my opinion the younger rikishi do not show any potential and character to be Yokozuna one day, hardly even ozeki. If Ichinojo stays healthy he might make ozeki. As for Yokozuna ... we might have to wait for another generation.

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If Joshua wins he'll have 3 of the 'big 4' (WBA, WBC, WBO, and IBF). The WBC belt will be held by Deontay Wilder or Luis Ortiz. Mike Tyson was WBA/WBC/IBF heavyweight champ before the WBO actually existed, and hence was 'undisputed' at that time in the multi-belt era. The IBO is probably consensus number 5 and I've occasionally seen it grouped with the other 4.

There has only been 1 WBC/WBO/IBF/WBA champion in the last decade, and that was at junior welterweight (140). The winner of the cruiserweight World Boxing Super Series will in May become the first cruiserweight to hold all 4, and the cruiser division in my view is even better than the heavyweight division pound for pound. Gassiev-Usyk is an excellent match.

As suggested above, the biggest obstacles to getting all the belts these days are not sporting, but rather political and financial, and there are far more fighters good enough  to win all 4 than there are fighters who actually have all 4. But Joshua is such a money generator that it's easier for him to get the matches he wants than it is for most fighters, and I think he'll eventually accomplish the feat.

Edited by Katooshu
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1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

If Joshua wins he'll have 3 of the 'big 4' (WBA, WBC, WBO, and IBF). The WBC belt will be held by Deontay Wilder or Luis Ortiz. Mike Tyson was WBA/WBC/IBF heavyweight champ before the WBO actually existed, and hence was 'undisputed' at that time in the multi-belt era. The IBO is probably consensus number 5 and I've occasionally seen it grouped with the other 4.

There has only been 1 WBC/WBO/IBF/WBA champion in the last decade, and that was at junior welterweight (140). The winner of the cruiserweight World Boxing Super Series will in May become the first cruiserweight to hold all 4, and the cruiser division in my view is even better than the heavyweight division pound for pound. Gassiev-Usyk is an excellent match.

As suggested above, the biggest obstacles to getting all the belts these days are not sporting, but rather political and financial, and there are far more fighters good enough  to win all 4 than there are fighters who actually have all 4. But Joshua is such a money generator that it's easier for him to get the matches he wants than it is for most fighters, and I think he'll eventually accomplish the feat.

Wilder is too long and too fast, Joshua dont stand a chance.

As for tsuna run, if Tochinoshin follows by 13-2Y and gets promoted I swear I'll eat my boxing gloves

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Wilder and Joshua are about the same height and have roughly the same reach, so I wouldn't say too long. Wilder is a bit faster, but he's also much cruder technically and in my view more open to being hit. I think the tighter punches of Joshua would get there first.

But not to take the thread too much off topic!

Edited by Katooshu

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16 hours ago, VirtualSumo said:

Hardest thing to achieve in world sport?  Win all 3 grand tours in cycling in one year.  (never done)  

Someone would actually have to try this to achieve it. No-one gives it a go anymore - at best they try for two. But If Eddie Mercx couldn't do it no-one can...

To be fair though, cycling isn't a sport anymore, it is a competition to see who can have the best (and most undetectable) PED regime. I used to be a cycling tragic, have given up on it in disgust

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7 hours ago, Chankomafuji said:

Hello everyone, a new member here.

I do not believe we will have a new Yokozuna anytime soon. Takayasu is yet to prove himself as a good ozeki. Now with all Yokozuna injured or not in good shape, he has a  good chance to shine. In my opinion the younger rikishi do not show any potential and character to be Yokozuna one day, hardly even ozeki. If Ichinojo stays healthy he might make ozeki. As for Yokozuna ... we might have to wait for another generation.

Someone has to win the bashos. I suspect that Hakuho is not done yet, he won't let a toe injury stop him, but if he falters, we may see some new Yokozuna.

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