Rocks

Basho Talk Hatsu 2018 (SPOILERS)

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Wow, what a day of sumo this was. 

Never expected Endo v. Kotoshogiku to be such an awesome bout, but it totally had me on the edge of the seat. 

That Tochinoshin v. Ichinojo match was also surprising, though I expect Ichinojo was the most surprised of all. That was bonkers. 

And then five back-to-back losses Mitakeumi blows away a yokozuna. o.o!

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9 minutes ago, yorikiried by fate said:

What's the fucking difference? It's rare. It's a little less rare when the respective YokOzeki of the era are absent and/or in decline.

Is there a need to be quite so hostile? I was just pointing out a few more examples.

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Just now, yorikiried by fate said:

It looked like you focused on the choice of 25 years with an ironic subtone to "interesting".

If I wronged you, I apologize.

Thanks. No ironic subtone intended.

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23 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

Thanks. No ironic subtone intended.

"Ironic Subtone" Aren't they that new Irish dub band?

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Wow. This basho is nonsense. I guess that’s a Tochinoshin yūshō then. If he can keep this form and his knee doesn’t trouble him… I honestly don’t see what’s stopping him making ōzeki.

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1 hour ago, Dwale said:

Never expected Endo v. Kotoshogiku to be such an awesome bout, but it totally had me on the edge of the seat. 

I keep saying this but when healthy, Endo's legwork is top class. He managed to maintain balance with one leg with Koto was twisting him around, and once he got his other foot down he was immediately steady. Not exactly a shining basho for him, but we might see it yet.

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2 hours ago, Morty said:

Terunofuji went 8-7 at M2, then 13-2 Jun-yusho and 12-3 yusho, both at Sekiwake. So this one will count, if he can back it up with another two at Sekiwake. Which, while I would like it to happen, isn't a given.

Theoretically what's the lowest rank from which the score (number of wins) will be counted into an ozeki run? I think if the rank is high enough for the rikishi to fight all those above him, the score should be counted into his three-basho ozeki run.

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53 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

"Ironic Subtone" Aren't they that new Irish dub band?

Have a look at Moti's posts regarding Takanohana. If that band exists, he's the leader...ok, should be called "Sarcastic Subtones" then...

Edited by Benihana

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2 hours ago, ryafuji said:

Interesting that you choose 25 years as a cut-off because there were a whole bunch in the early 90s - Kotofuji and Kotonishiki in '91, Takahanada and Mitoizumi in '92.

My impression is that the chance of a hiramuku yusho is less than 5% in general. Since 2000, if this basho's Tochinoshin included, only 4 (out of 102 bashos). Astonishingly, Kotonishiki won 2 hiramaku yusho ! 

 

Edited by Dapeng

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Beating a dead (or crippled) horse here by now, but having had knee issues recently, I felt a serious sympathy pain watching Terunofuji crawl up for tachiai. I know what it's like when you legs just won't do what you tell them to. It's just that I haven't tried a pro level sport during my troubles.

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Kind of ironic that tochinosin will win the yusho...and his one loss is to the yokozuna runner up.

Isnt that "theoretically" unfair?

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3 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

I impression is that the chance of a hiramuku yusho is less than 5% in general. Since 2000, if this basho's Tochinoshin included, only 4 (out of 102 bashos). 

I think 5% is about right, but as noted, it depends on a lot on the strength of the top-ranked guys.  When there aren't enough strong YokOzeki, it's more likely that none of them score high enough for the Yusho and that they can't stop a maegashira on a good run.  Note that it happened quite a lot the last time there was a severe shortage of top talent, resulting in a time when there were no Yokozuna.

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Just now, Stein said:

Kind of ironic that tochinosin will win the yusho...and his one loss is to the yokozuna runner up.

Isnt that "theoretically" unfair?

1) Tochinoshin hasn't won the yusho yet. 

2) Kakuryu hasn't clinched jun yusho yet.

3) Yes, it's fair.

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23 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Theoretically what's the lowest rank from which the score (number of wins) will be counted into an ozeki run? I think if the rank is high enough for the rikishi to fight all those above him, the score should be counted into his three-basho ozeki run.

If you have 6 san'yaku- that is, 2 Y+O, 2 S and 2 K, then it goes all the way down to M5w. If you have a heya bonus, perhaps even lower than that; one spot lower than 5w for each top-16 heya-mate. 

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Regarding M3w Tochinoshin's (12-1) possible Day 15 opponent. M5w Endo (8-5) is the highest ranked rikishi with a winning record. Endo defeated Kakuryu. Endo is a star.

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How late does the final day torikumi come out again?

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2 minutes ago, Rocks said:

How late does the final day torikumi come out again?

About 1/2 way through the day 14 makuuchi torikumi.

Edited by Asojima
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12 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Regarding M3w Tochinoshin's (12-1) possible Day 15 opponent. M5w Endo (8-5) is the highest ranked rikishi with a winning record. Endo defeated Kakuryu. Endo is a star.

But Endo don't meet Tamawashi yet. And just now they rivals for K1w position. 

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37 minutes ago, Stein said:

Kind of ironic that tochinosin will win the yusho...and his one loss is to the yokozuna runner up.

Isnt that "theoretically" unfair?

Well it's what distinguishes league based competitions from knock out.

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Aw yeaaaah. Takayasu is in the driver seat for this one. He's got Tochinoshin right where he wants him. 

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10 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

Aw yeaaaah. Takayasu is in the driver seat for this one. He's got Tochinoshin right where he wants him. 

Probably not, ;-) But, if he can beat Kakuryu and lock up a sole jun-yusho at 12-3 March could be very interesting. I'd say Kisenosato is out for sure in March and if injuries is what caused Kakutyu's slide here he could be absent in March too. Even with an injured Hakuho back that would be very favorable conditions for a Takayasu yusho in March.  Could a 12-3 J and a 13-2 or better Yusho in March good enough for Yokozuna promotion?

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4 minutes ago, Rocks said:

 Could a 12-3 J and a 13-2 or better Yusho in March good enough for Yokozuna promotion?

I don't think so. A yusho in March would definitely start a tsuna run.

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Tochinoshin trying to lift Ichinojo on what looks to be one knee was impressive.

As for Takayasu...

From the Sumo wiki:

 

"The de facto standard is to win two consecutive championships as ōzeki or an equivalent performance. In the case where the "equivalent performance" criterion is used the wrestler's record over the previous three tournaments is taken into account with an expectation of at least one tournament victory and two runner-up performances, with none of the three records falling below twelve wins."

 

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Hard to see a promotion with 12-3 J and 13-2 Y when Takayasu's other ozeki tournaments were 1-2-12, 8-5-2, and 9-6. 

Compare that to Kise's last 6 before promotion: 14-1 Y, 12-3 J, 10-5, 12-3 J, 13-2 J, 13-2 J.

He had consistently strong ozeki showings to support his case with one yusho, and I believe the YDC mentioned this. Conversely, Takayasu has just achieved his first double digit ozeki tournament..

Edited by Katooshu
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