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Kintamayama

Hatsu Day 1 match-ups

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Tiger Tanaka    96

Sanyaku picks for day 1

Tamawashi over Chiyotairyu: I'm not a fan of Tom Mawashi aka Tom Belt, but he's been demonstrating some quality sumo and he's going to come out on fire wanting to show that Kyushu is the start of an Ozeki run

Mitakeumi over Kotoshogiku: Mitakeumi has won 6 of his last 7 matchups against Geek, will need to see if some of his nagging injuries from Kyushu have subsided

Yoshikaze over Takayasu: Yoshikaze looked banged up by the end of Kyushu, but he's 6-2 in his last 8 matchups against Takayasu who isn't 100% physically or mentally IMO

Goeido over Ichinojo: I have a feeling Kyushu will be an aberration for Ichi and that he's due for a big MK now that he's firmly in the JOI. Goeido wins easily.

Kakuryu over Hokutofuji: Kak draws the toughest day 1 matchup, but I believe he will handle Hokutofuji who might come out too aggressive with too much forward lean, which sets up well for Kakuryu.

Takekeisho over Kisenosato: Hope I'm wrong here, I like both rikishi but Kise is obviously in a more precarious position. From the great preparation threads by @Kintamayama it just doesn't seem like Kise has regained his upper body strength yet. There are few weak areas in the JOI this basho and Kise will struggle to get 10 wins.

Hakuho over Onosho: I wouldn't have been surprised if Hak skipped this basho given that he just won and wanted to make a point with all the controversy going on. But now that he's in, he might be a little rusty, but I still see a 14-1 or 13-2 yusho for Hak.

 

Highlight matches of the day: Kakuryu vs Hokutofuji and Tamawashi vs Chiyotairyu. Also looking forward to Terunofuji vs Chiyomaru.

SUMO IS BACK! Let's enjoy these next 15 days friends. Cheers!

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maorencze    79

I think Kak and Hokutofuji have never faced each other, which (I suppose) should be advantageous for more experienced of the two - Kakuryu is better than most give him credit for, with his greatest strengths laying in bout awareness and dohyo awareness, and no glaring weaknesses (anything else in his game except health is sanyaku-level at least), so if he's not overcautious, he should win easily

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Rocks    877
21 minutes ago, maorencze said:

I think Kak and Hokutofuji have never faced each other, which (I suppose) should be advantageous for more experienced of the two - Kakuryu is better than most give him credit for, with his greatest strengths laying in bout awareness and dohyo awareness, and no glaring weaknesses (anything else in his game except health is sanyaku-level at least), so if he's not overcautious, he should win easily

They faced each other last July. Hokutofuji beat him. He played it very smart, completely changed his style puling a HNH. Kakuryu had nothing but ineffective slaps and got owned. I give Kakuryu a 25% shot of winning at best. 

http://www.youtube.com/embed/k0qZT2LGQE0?start=7295&autoplay=1

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maorencze    79
5 minutes ago, Rocks said:

They faced each other last July. Hokutofuji beat him. He played it very smart, completely changed his style puling a HNH. Kakuryu had nothing but ineffective slaps and got owned. I give Kakuryu a 25% shot of winning at best. 

http://www.youtube.com/embed/k0qZT2LGQE0?start=7295&autoplay=1

Kakuryu fought last year? It's been so long and so rare it almost seems he last fought in 20th century :-D

Thx for correction, though. In that case, it remains to be seen. I am quite sure Kak was nowhere near his current condition last year and it was the first time he fought Hokutofuji, so I'd still give him the edge. Still, it's gonna be about that decides this - does he still have it or not?

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Kintamayama    22,328
2 hours ago, Joaoiyama said:

Indeed that's a pattern but there's more to it than just numbers, Taka's first "sanyaku" basho was at m1 he went 5-10 struggling in all his bouts against joi, his second run at m1 was almost the opposite, he handled everyone and even his losses were competitive(Onosho won their second encounter via hairtakikomi (Laughing...)) so TK is now ready for everyone in the top rankings, so dont be surprised with a double digit performance.

Makekoshi. 5 wins tops. He is from a broken home at the moment and I'm pretty sure it has been hard for him to concentrate on sumo lately.  And I think his Kotonishiki/Akinoshima/Toyonoshima style has its limits, like with the originals. But, as it is often said, we shall see..

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Joaoiyama    60
19 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Makekoshi. 5 wins tops. He is from a broken home at the moment and I'm pretty sure it has been hard for him to concentrate on sumo lately.  And I think his Kotonishiki/Akinoshima/Toyonoshima style has its limits, like with the originals. But, as it is often said, we shall see..

Indeed we shall see how he performs under pressure, although he doesn't play mawashi games like Akinoshima, he's all about pushing and pulling, he's way more explosive than Toyonoshima and with his short limbs and strong torso at 175cm 168kg he is much stronger and has a better center of gravity than Kotonoshiki. Plus he's 21, he has potential to be very good along with his nemesis Onosho.

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Rocks    877
46 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

He is from a broken home at the moment and I'm pretty sure it has been hard for him to concentrate on sumo lately.

On the flip side of that outside of Aminishiki I expect the Isegahama boys will be kicking ass and taking names this basho.

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Kintamayama    22,328
1 hour ago, Joaoiyama said:

Indeed we shall see how he performs under pressure, although he doesn't play mawashi games like Akinoshima, he's all about pushing and pulling, he's way more explosive than Toyonoshima and with his short limbs and strong torso at 175cm 168kg he is much stronger and has a better center of gravity than Kotonoshiki. Plus he's 21, he has potential to be very good along with his nemesis Onosho.

You know what I meant when I compared him to the three. He's a stocky guy with a lot of zest and fire, and that's about all. Some kinboshi, maybe a fluke yusho down the road. He's no Chiyotaikai.  5-10. I would be more than happy to eat my words.

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Asashosakari    10,993
9 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I doubt that too. But changing his plans after doing it this way for quite a while may cause some tension. We shall see. And I wouldn't underestimate Ounoshou. If he hadn't been over-eager last basho and slipped a few times, he would have ended with a 10-5 at least. With experience and time, he will be a force to reckon with and more. This guy is for real.

FWIW, I'm not convinced of Onosho's future prospects. That overeagerness has been in his sumo since the very start, and while he kept it in check for about two tournaments (the second and third 10-5), I think it's going to return to more prominence now that he's up high enough that he's going to face the same opponents again and again and they'll learn how to trigger and/or exploit it.

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Yukiarashi    190

Day 1 Predictions:

Winners in green

Makushita

Shonannoumi-Tamaki

Murata-Daiseido

Enho-Jokoryu

Kitaharima-Tobizaru

Asabenkei-Terutsuyoshi

Juryo

Yago-Asabenkei

Akua-Daishoho

Mitoryu-Tochihiryu

Yamaguchi-Takagenji

Seiro-Kotoeko

Takanosho-Osunaarashi

Amakaze-Homarefuji

Sadanoumi-Chiyonoo

Tsurugisho-Gagamaru

Tokushoryu-Meisei

Kyokushuho-Hidenoumi

Azumaryu-Aoiyama

Myogiryu-Kyokutaisei

Makuuchi

Daiamami-Asanoyama

Ryuden-Nishikigi

Ishiura-Yutakayama

Abi-Daieisho

Takekaze-Kagayaki

Sokokurai-Daishomaru

Kotoyuki-Aminishiki

Terunofuji-Chiyomaru

Shohozan-Kaisei

Tochiozan-Chiyonokuni

Chiyoshoma-Ikioi

Takarafuji-Endo

Okinoumi-Arawashi

Shodai-Tochinoshin

Chiyotairyu-Tamawashi

Either one could win but I think it will be a very quick bout.

Mitakeumi-Kotoshogiku

Kotoshogiku will almost win and fall over at the last second and lose again

Yoshikaze-Takayasu

I really don't know who to pick here, Takayasu hasn't looked great lately and Yoshikaze always beats Sanyaku. But I'll say Takayasu because he seems to do well one the first day.

Goeido-Ichinojo

It could be either one again, it depends on if Ichinojo is good this time or not. If he is there's a good chance he could win, but I think Goeido will win rather quickly.

Kakuryu-Hokutofuji

I wouldn't be surprised if Hokutofuji won and even though Kakuryu is a Yokozuna he's probably not favored to win as long as he's been out and as well as Hokutofuji has been doing. I think it will be an exciting bout but I think Kakuryu will win, outsmarting Hokutofuji at the end.

Takakeisho-Kisenosato

Again I think it's about even on who could win. I think either way it will be very quick, I think Takakeisho wins fairly quickly surprisingly, Kisenosato doesn't seem right lately.   

Hakuho-Onosho 

I think Onosho gets close to winning at the start but Hakuho eventually rolls him out. Onosho seems like someone that could upset Hakuho on the first day though like Shodai did last March.

I think there will be a lot of quick matches and lame sumo in the first half like on usual first days, but the second half schedule might be the best I've seen for the first day and I think there will be a lot of exciting bouts and there could be a lot of upsets at the end. Any of the last five bouts could go either way. I don't know who wins the Yusho though, usually I'd say Hakuho for sure but he doesn't seem that interested this time. I think he could end up around 11-4, while someone surprising wins like Goeido, Takayasu, or Mitakeumi with a 14-1 or something.

 

 

 

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Kawabata    135
On 1/12/2018 at 08:45, Kintamayama said:

I would be utterly amazed if all three Yokozunae will win on day 1

Spoiler

2 out of 3 ain't bad

 

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Kintamayama    22,328
8 hours ago, Yukiarashi said:

Day 1 Predictions:

etc

Very good. You should play the games..

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Akinomaki    17,882

Interesting that Nikkan now  publishes predictions on the net - for day 1

201801140000173-nsogp_0.jpgo

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Naganoyama    2,352

It's the nearest they can get to gambling in a country where it's illegal.

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Yukiarashi    190
Quote
12 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Very good. You should play the games..

 

Yeah I've been meaning too, I've been playing GTB for a while just never got around to trying other ones. I'll look into playing them. 

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Haruibono    6

What are your predictions for Day 2?  I'm impressed!!

 

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Gurowake    1,638
12 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Interesting that Nikkan now  publishes predictions on the net - for day 1

 

They say at the bottom the star marks who has " 有利 ", which I would think would mean in this case who's more likely to win, but I don't see that as the same as making a prediction.  Sure, if you were going to be forced to make a prediction by being a part of a prediction game, that's what you would use to make your prediction.  But since they're just providing information, I don't see it as a "prediction" in the same sense.

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Yukiarashi    190

Thank you Haruibono:-)

In Juryo I think the opposite of who I'd expect to win for everyone. For example I expect Mitoryu to beat Kizenryu so I am saying Kizenryu. That's about what happened yesterday.

Makuuchi-Daiamami over Ryuden   Asanoyama over Nishikigi   Ishiura over Abi    Daieisho over Yutakayama   Takekaze over Sokokurai    Daishomaru over Kagayaki   Kotoyuki over Terunofuji    Chiyomaru over Aminishiki   Tochiozan over Shohozan    Chiyonokuni over Kaisei    Takarafuji over Chiyoshoma    Endo over Ikioi    Shodai over Okinoumi    Arawashi over Tochinoshin   

Mitakeumi over Chiyotairyu-Mitakeumi looked very strong today so I think he'll win but Chiyotairyu could very well do that thing where he blows someone into the second row after the tachiai. I think Mitakeumi is ready to compete for a yusho this time.

Tamawashi over Yoshikaze-Tamawashi looks very strong lately and Yoshikaze looks like he could get off to a poor start this time.

Goeido over Onosho- I think Onosho will do exactly what he did yesterday and push him to the edge and fall over.

Takayasu over Kotoshogiku-Last basho I probably would have said Kotoshogiku, but he didn't look too great yesterday, Takayasu doesn't sound healthy either but I think he'll win after Kotoshogiku starts well but eventually gets overpowered.

Hakuho over Ichinojo-Hakuho wins again after a decently long mawashi battle like Kyushu. 

Kakuryu over Takakeisho-Kakuryu has had plenty of time off to watch Takakeisho so I think he'll win here after an entertaining slapping match

Hokutofuji over Kisenosato-I feel bad for Kisenosato. I hope he can return to his previous form but I think he'll lose again today in another entertaining bout to Hokutofuji. 

I'm looking forward to Tochiozan-Shohozan through Arawashi-Tochinoshin the most they all look like they could be really entertaining. All the Maegashira matches look really even today. 

 

 

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wys    26

Takakeisho again demonstrating on Day 1 why he is my favorite rikishi. His matches are always entertaining and full of excitement.  Many people probably see him as one-dimensional but I think today he showed that he is not only powerful but is quick-thinking and has great balance. 

As for the comment earlier that Takakeisho looks arrogant, I take his demeanor to reflect self-confidence.  Why would you want to show your opponent anything less?

Cheers,

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Kintamayama    22,328
3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

They say at the bottom the star marks who has " 有利 ", which I would think would mean in this case who's more likely to win, but I don't see that as the same as making a prediction.  Sure, if you were going to be forced to make a prediction by being a part of a prediction game, that's what you would use to make your prediction.  But since they're just providing information, I don't see it as a "prediction" in the same sense.

And, they sucked really bad.

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Akinomaki    17,882
5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

They say at the bottom the star marks who has " 有利 ", which I would think would mean in this case who's more likely to win, but I don't see that as the same as making a prediction

They don't have to say there "we expect him to win" - the title of this is 予想, which is a prediction, not just an estimate of who is in better shape

Btw, this yuuri 有利 is what you may hear from the shimpan at a mono-ii when they want to say "it looked (to the gyoji) like he won" - and then likely overturn it

Edited by Akinomaki
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Gurowake    1,638
4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

They don't have to say there "we expect him to win" - the title of this is 予想, which is a prediction, not just an estimate of who is in better shape

Ok, I completely missed the title.  Yes, that definitely sounds more like a prediction.

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