Sign in to follow this  
Kintamayama

ISP and CG

Recommended Posts

Pandaazuma    882
12 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Why did so many pick Arawashi? I don't get it. I thought that would be an even split at most. 

A lot of people go off head-to-head records in close bouts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Kintamayama    22,373
11 hours ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Well, Ichinosho vs. Onosho would also split picks in 50/50. I guess Mitakeumi would attract much more picks than Shin. Let's see how Guessbusters decide...

Ganzohnesushi

One thing I've learned from  all these years of doing ISP is that nothing is for certain except the obvious. We had a lengthy debate in the past about the "better known guy" factor and the "past meetings" factor. Up until a few years ago, everyone's pick was there for all to see before the bout, so we had the "sheep" factor as well. When it's a lopsided loss like two days ago, the matchmaker loses and feels like a fool... When it's lopsided in his favor like today, it's a bonus for him. I can't for the life of me comprehend the gigantic difference in picks yesterday between the twins. The only reason I can guess is that quite a lot of players intensely dislike Chiyoshouma.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ganzohnesushi    174
31 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

One thing I've learned from  all these years of doing ISP is that nothing is for certain except the obvious. We had a lengthy debate in the past about the "better known guy" factor and the "past meetings" factor. Up until a few years ago, everyone's pick was there for all to see before the bout, so we had the "sheep" factor as well. When it's a lopsided loss like two days ago, the matchmaker loses and feels like a fool... When it's lopsided in his favor like today, it's a bonus for him. I can't for the life of me comprehend the gigantic difference in picks yesterday between the twins. The only reason I can guess is that quite a lot of players intensely dislike Chiyoshouma.

I really appeciate your work and playing ISP for more than 12 years I know exactly what you mean. Sometimes I find it extremely difficult to decide between two Rikishi and I expect some 52/48 split only to find out next day that players picked 80/20 for whatever reason.

It was great to see the distribution in Seki Toto some years ago for every single Bout on all 15 days. Often enough I was surprised...

Ganzohnesushi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Asashosakari    11,025
1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

One thing I've learned from  all these years of doing ISP is that nothing is for certain except the obvious. We had a lengthy debate in the past about the "better known guy" factor and the "past meetings" factor. Up until a few years ago, everyone's pick was there for all to see before the bout, so we had the "sheep" factor as well. When it's a lopsided loss like two days ago, the matchmaker loses and feels like a fool... When it's lopsided in his favor like today, it's a bonus for him. I can't for the life of me comprehend the gigantic difference in picks yesterday between the twins. The only reason I can guess is that quite a lot of players intensely dislike Chiyoshouma.

Can't speak for anybody else, but I largely went with Arawashi because he's looked in command of his sumo despite clearly being less than 100% physically, while Chiyoshoma has looked shaky despite no obvious ailments.
 

34 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

I really appeciate your work and playing ISP for more than 12 years I know exactly what you mean. Sometimes I find it extremely difficult to decide between two Rikishi and I expect some 52/48 split only to find out next day that players picked 80/20 for whatever reason.

It was great to see the distribution in Seki Toto some years ago for every single Bout on all 15 days. Often enough I was surprised...

The thing is, if everyone agrees on who the favourite for the bout is, then it doesn't matter if he's a 90/10 favourite or a 55/45 favourite. The Toto and ISP picks as a whole will almost always be more lopsided than any individual picker's opinion of the bout.

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ganzohnesushi    174
1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

The thing is, if everyone agrees on who the favourite for the bout is, then it doesn't matter if he's a 90/10 favourite or a 55/45 favourite.

You didn't get my point, obviously. I was not talking about odds, I looked at the distribution of picks. Then there is a huge difference between 90/10 and 55/45.

Ganzohnesushi

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Asashosakari    11,025
6 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

You didn't get my point, obviously. I was not talking about odds, I looked at the distribution of picks. Then there is a huge difference between 90/10 and 55/45.

Yes, and I'm saying that you're making the mistake of assuming that hard-to-call bout => close distribution. Doesn't work that way, because most hard-to-call bouts still have a favourite (at least a perceived one), even if he's favoured at only a little over 50%. And it only takes a small edge for the picks to steamroll in one direction.

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ganzohnesushi    174
Just now, Asashosakari said:

Yes, and I'm saying that you're making the mistake of assuming that hard-to-call bout => close distribution. Doesn't work that way, because most hard-to-call bouts still have a favourite (at least a perceived one), even if he's favoured at only a little over 50%. And it only take a small edge for the picks to steamroll in one direction.

I'm fully aware of this and I don't think I made a mistake here. Distribution over the first 8 days was:

  • Day 1: 66-33
  • Day 2: 58-43
  • Day 3: 55-46
  • Day 4: 65-36
  • Day 5: 69-32
  • Day 6: 73-28
  • Day 7: 88-11
  • Day 8: 80-21

Looking at the distribution over the days I must say I liked days 2 & 3 most.

Ganzohnesushi

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Rocks    886
3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I can't for the life of me comprehend the gigantic difference in picks yesterday between the twins. The only reason I can guess is that quite a lot of players intensely dislike Chiyoshouma.

Must be. I've never been crazy about him, put I picked him.  Yes, Arawashi had a slightly better record against him but Arawashi is hobbling all over the joint and lucked into 2 of his wins IMO. It was a relatively easy call for me. Which ISP usually is not. I never even gave Arawashi much thought. I could see  60% going for Arawashi, but 80% blew me away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Pandaazuma    882

What's with all the unfamiliar names at the bottom of the ISP rankings?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Asashosakari    11,025
26 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

What's with all the unfamiliar names at the bottom of the ISP rankings?

Recruiting drive by Kinta in the comment section of yesterday's video.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Pandaazuma    882
9 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Recruiting drive by Kinta in the comment section of yesterday's video.

Get him to recruit them in a few more then! The gamer species is slowly dying out and we need new blood!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Kintamayama    22,373
9 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

Get him to recruit them in a few more then! The gamer species is slowly dying out and we need new blood!

That is exactly my intention. This was a pilot to see if anyone is interested, and even mid-basho, it seems there are a few who are. The problem is that I can't do it between bashos since there are no video uploads, but i'll find a way. I have to incorporate it in my videos, because most people don't read the comments. That will be my mission.. If we can get one percent of my 18,600 subscribers, how cool would that be??

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Kintamayama    22,373
25 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Recruiting drive by Kinta in the comment section of yesterday's video.

And writing "ISP match" in the video itself, which is what actually caught the attention of some viewers, prompting me to write stuff in the comments..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Pandaazuma    882
16 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

That is exactly my intention. This was a pilot to see if anyone is interested, and even mid-basho, it seems there are a few who are. The problem is that I can't do it between bashos since there are no video uploads, but i'll find a way. I have to incorporate it in my videos, because most people don't read the comments. That will be my mission.. If we can get one percent of my 18,600 subscribers, how cool would that be??

Cool indeed! Thanks a lot...would be great to see some new names in the standings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Rocks    886

So, we got a winner in CG eh? Congrats to Kōrinokoishi! (Applauding...)(Yushowinner...)

And to GONZABUROW for the Jun-yahso. (Applauding...)(Secondprize...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Asashosakari    11,025
10 hours ago, Pandaazuma said:

Get him to recruit them in a few more then! The gamer species is slowly dying out and we need new blood!

A couple of the names look familiar from Fantasy Sumo actually. I reckon there's some untapped potential in that player pool, too.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Benihana    620
On 21.1.2018 at 21:58, Kintamayama said:

I can't for the life of me comprehend the gigantic difference in picks yesterday between the twins. The only reason I can guess is that quite a lot of players intensely dislike Chiyoshouma.

I don't get it either. There was a clearly visible pattern and it was obvious to choose Chiyoshoma. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tsuchinoninjin    299
5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

A couple of the names look familiar from Fantasy Sumo actually. I reckon there's some untapped potential in that player pool, too.

If we had everybody from reddit who made a strongly worded post about how sumo should be we'd have 150+ easily.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gurowake    1,644
21 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

If we had everybody from reddit who made a strongly worded post about how sumo should be we'd have 150+ easily.

How do you know they don't already play and/or post here?  People might have reddit names from before they followed sumo and don't see the point of creating another one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tsuchinoninjin    299
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

How do you know they don't already play and/or post here?  People might have reddit names from before they followed sumo and don't see the point of creating another one.

Well, there's been a few 200+ comment threads on there about sumo, and at least one is about henka ergo...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Atenzan    758

Being a reddit user long before I discovered sumo in August 2015, I went to /r/Sumo and followed Aki 2015 exclusively from Moti's videos, that subreddit and SumoDB. I have to say there's a few reasons why I don't even glance at that subreddit anymore. 

Checking the front page right now, it's all tachiai-blog, Black Mawashi (two pages written by and incessantly plugged by redditors), tiny daily discussion threads with few to no replies to comments and posts from people just getting into sumo. And the main mod there doesn't seem to like us (sumoforum) at all. 

 

Edited by McBugger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Rocks    886
11 minutes ago, McBugger said:

And the main mod there doesn't seem to like us (sumoforum) at all.

What the heck could anybody not like about here? The great forum software? The ridiculously conscientious people putting up countless info threads and running forum games?

The great people? Alright, there is @Pandaazuma but what can you do? Nothing's perfect. ;-)

Edited by Rocks
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Atenzan    758
8 minutes ago, Rocks said:

What the heck could anybody not like about here? The great forum software? The ridiculously conscientious people putting up countless info threads and running forum games?

The great people? Alright, there is @Pandaazuma but what can you do? Nothing's perfect. ;-)

Inferiority complex, Gansekiiwa-zeki... He built the subreddit so everything else is "the enemy". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sakura    322
18 minutes ago, McBugger said:

Being a reddit user long before I discovered sumo in August 2015, I went to /r/Sumo and followed Aki 2015 exclusively from Moti's videos, that subreddit and SumoDB. I have to say there's a few reasons why I don't even glance at that subreddit anymore. 

Checking the front page right now, it's all tachiai-blog, Black Mawashi (two pages written by and incessantly plugged by redditors), tiny daily discussion threads with few to no replies to comments and posts from people just getting into sumo. And the main mod there doesn't seem to like us (sumoforum) at all. 

 

I haven't checked the Sumo subreddit, but if it's anything like some of the other sports subreddits it'll devolve into posts like `If your favourite rikishi was a fruit, what type would he be?'. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Rocks    886
4 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I haven't checked the Sumo subreddit, but if it's anything like some of the other sports subreddits it'll devolve into posts like `If your favourite rikishi was a fruit, what type would he be?'. 

Ichinogo

IMG_3186_grande.jpg?v=1494826001

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this