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jranderson222

When does an “Ozeki run” begin?

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Can the 33 wins over 3 basho begin before a rikishi reaches sekiwake? Or does the clock not start until you become a sekiwake and then win 33 over 3 from there?

I’m really optimistic about Takakeisho’s prospects!!

thanks,

josh

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2 minutes ago, jranderson222 said:

Can the 33 wins over 3 basho begin before a rikishi reaches sekiwake? Or does the clock not start until you become a sekiwake and then win 33 over 3 from there?

I’m really optimistic about Takakeisho’s prospects!!

thanks,

josh

It typically starts with Sanyaku promotion. 

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1 minute ago, Bumpkin said:

It typically starts with Sanyaku promotion. 

Terunofuji went 8-7 as a M2e in January 2015. He was promoted to Sekiwake and went 13-2 J and 12-3 Y. That was good enough to be promoted to Ozeki.

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2 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

It typically starts with Sanyaku promotion. 

Usually...  But I would think Tamawashi and Takakeisho (...and possibly Hokutofuji)  are on an Ozeki run starting with Hatsu (their recent 11-4 would not be part of the 33 wins).  They have "earned" sanyaku promotion regardless of their rank on the Hatsu banzuke.  This is all my opinion, of course, with zero research to back it up. 

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I'd say it begins when the rikishi faces a full jo'i gauntlet- assuming no kyujos or heya dis/advantage, that means he has to be ranked within the top 16 of the banzuke (M3e or higher as of 2017.11). So I'd say both Takakeishou's and Tamawashi's 11 wins count towards their 33- and so should Hokutofuji's since Kakuryuu was kyujo from day 1 but the kyokai will probably disagree with me.

However the third basho to complete your 33 must be from sekiwake. So there's a (small) chance that one of our three hopefuls could be stranded at komusubi (especially Hokutofuji, who has an infinitessimal chance of being stranded at M1!) and they will therefore be ozeki-ineligible. But one hopes that they'll open up a third, fourth or even fifth* sekiwake spot if there's a chance of an ozeki promotion. A couple years ago we would call such banzuke strandings getting Tochinoshin'd, but getting Giku'd is probably more fitting.

 

* conditional on the realisation of both Nuts Hatsu 2018 and Bizarro Haru 2018

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Everybody is on an Ozeki run as far as I'm concerned.

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7 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Everybody is on an Ozeki run as far as I'm concerned.

Care to elaborate?

 

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13 minutes ago, McBugger said:

However the third basho to complete your 33 must be from sekiwake.

Actually, the last two bashos must be from sekiwake.

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Just now, McBugger said:

Care to elaborate?

 

I just like speculating about who might get promoted. So I'm pretty lose with the requirements to talk about it.

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3 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:
18 minutes ago, McBugger said:

However the third basho to complete your 33 must be from sekiwake.

Actually, the last two bashos must be from sekiwake.

This is a good example. I think this is the standard procedures but they don't always stick to standards. It's situational. I could see Takakeisho promoted Ozeki after going 12-3 as Komusubi and 12-3 as sekiwake in the next 2 basho along with a couple of Yokozuna intai making the sanyaku very light. Not that that is ever going to happen. But it's not beyond speculation.

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Just now, Doitsuyama said:

Thanks, I was just about to post this query.

Phrasing such absolute statements is just hitting you back in the face when there are so many counter examples.

Aye, I ran the same query myself, there's no way I knew of the other four before KaioU off the top of my head.

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1 hour ago, Doitsuyama said:

Thanks, I was just about to post this query.

Phrasing such absolute statements is just hitting you back in the face when there are so many counter examples.

61 out of the last 66 Ozeki promotions. 22 out of the last 23. 13 in a row. You really got me, didn't you?

Edited by Bumpkin
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17 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

61 out of the last 66 Ozeki promotions. 22 out of the last 23. 13 in a row. You really got me, didn't you?

I'm siding with Doitsuyama here. There is a very very significant difference in "X absolutely requires Y" and "in most cases where X happened, it was preceded by Y". Especially if either Tamawashi or Takakeishou get 10-12 komusubi wins in January, which is a very real possibility. 

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It wouldn't be a Bumpkin post if he actually refrained from phrasing non-absolutes in absolute terms.

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2 hours ago, torquato said:

Gagamaru is always on an Ozeki run. ;-)

He only has Juryo in his way at the moment!

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2 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

He only has Juryo in his way at the moment!

He got a KK! And 10 wins! Off course Gaga started another Ozeki run (Dohyo-iri...)

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18 minutes ago, McBugger said:

I'm siding with Doitsuyama here. There is a very very significant difference in "X absolutely requires Y" and "in most cases where X happened, it was preceded by Y". Especially if either Tamawashi or Takakeishou get 10-12 komusubi wins in January, which is a very real possibility. 

 

12 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

It wouldn't be a Bumpkin post if he actually refrained from phrasing non-absolutes in absolute terms.

I made a mistake. I tried to run a database query but failed. So I relied on memory instead. I am sorry.

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8 minutes ago, bettega said:

He got a KK! And 10 wins! Off course Gaga started another Ozeki run (Dohyo-iri...)

Is a juryo ozeki a thing? I say it is and Gaga's in the running for it. Somehow, someway, he will become an ozeki one day :-D

Edited by Katooshu

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All of the counter-examples involved Yusho or Jun-Yusho results as part of the three basho before promotion. Tochihikari started his by going 11-4 at M4  and only facing 2 Komusubi out of the 13 top rankers available.

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11 hours ago, torquato said:

Gagamaru is always on an Ozeki run. ;-)

The best leg was Haru and Natsu 2012.

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