Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Kyushu 2017

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16 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Kise is a big stable and it recruits heavily from the college scene, with many of their rikishi coming from top sumo programs and having accomplished amateur backgrounds. It makes sense with such a large number of those rikishi they'd have a notable presence in the sekitori ranks and the former sekitori list (as they've had a relatively high number of rikishi eligible for that list). Perhaps there is also something about coming from a college background that makes dropping out of the salaried ranks more likely? Shorter primes in ozumo maybe?

It's also that there simply isn't that much elite talent to go around in the university scene, and even less so for Nihon whose star has been sinking of late. They've got a huge team and lots of competent rikishi, but the big names have largely been produced elsewhere in recent years.

What Kise-beya is recruiting from Nihon in large numbers is basically the sumo equivalent of baseball's dreaded "low upside college pitcher" - the guy who's gone through an excellent program and developed into a very polished player at a young age, and who might help the major league club very quickly, but at the same time you know that he's never going to be more than a good role player to fill out the team because the talent for anything better just isn't there, and what talent he does have has already been maximized by his university coaches.

Kise-beya recruits a ton of those guys, many do reach juryo and many others fail. It's actually a pretty smart strategy, I think, just not likely to ever produce a genuine top rikishi. (The Nihon guys with actual star potential have been going elsewhere, e.g. Endo and Mitoryu.) Also: While I won't profess to know what the atmosphere is like at Kise, I imagine it can't hurt that many of the deshi already know each other from their university years.
 

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Day 11 (results, text-only results):

    0-3-8 Harumafuji    Y1   Hakuho       10-1
    4-6-1 Kisenosato    Y2   Kakuryu      kyujo

     7-4  Goeido        O    Takayasu      8-3

Not much to say about Hakuho's weird post-bout behaviour today that hasn't already been said - seemingly unprepared to continue with the bout (for whatever reason), he was easily overwhelmed by Yoshikaze and picked up his first loss of the basho. Both of his pursuers from the maegashira ranks, Hokutofuji and Okinoumi, were victorious on Day 10 and they have narrowed the gap to just one win. However, it's still largely out of their hands as Hokutofuji already lost to the yokozuna and Okinoumi is unlikely to face him.

Hokutofuji's win came at the expense of ozeki Goeido's kachikoshi drive, and was a truly excellent bit of sumo by the up'n'comer, who is perhaps establishing himself as a second credible ozeki candidate next to Mitakeumi for the near future. The latter also happened to be successful today, quickly dismissing Chiyotairyu. It's now looking very good indeed for Mitakeumi and Yoshikaze to maintain their sekiwake standings. In other news Takayasu no longer has to worry about being kadoban after an easy victory over Ichinojo.

Onosho's quest to remain komusubi hit a major roadblock in the form of Tochiozan today. At 4-7 it's now rather likely that he'll be joining Kotoshogiku on the way down. Giku for his part looked somewhat rejuvenated in a win over Takakeisho, delaying the youngster's KK hopes. Tamawashi doesn't have to wait as he collected his 8th win against Arawashi, and he now looks almost certain to return to sanyaku for January.

     7-4  Mitakeumi     S1   Yoshikaze     6-5
(x) 0-5-6 Terunofuji    S2
(x)  3-8  Kotoshogiku   K    Onosho        4-7

     8-3  Tamawashi     M1   Takakeisho    7-4
     4-7  Chiyotairyu   M2
(x)  3-8  Shohozan      M3   Hokutofuji    9-2
                        M4   Ichinojo      7-4
     6-5  Takarafuji    M5   Arawashi      7-4
(x)  5-6  Chiyoshoma    M6   Tochinoshin   6-5
                        M7
                        M8
     8-3  Endo          M9
                        M10
                        M11
     9-2  Okinoumi      M12

 

Day 12 will be concluding with a rather similar set of matches as today did: Hakuho faces the other sekiwake Mitakeumi, and the ozeki duo flip their Day 11 opponents to give us Goeido-Ichinojo and Takayasu-Hokutofuji.


Another shiroboshi for Daiamami today, this time against Chiyomaru, so the demise of his makuuchi debut remains on hold for now. And he's no longer the sole #1 demotion candidate now after Aoiyama lost for the third straight day, unable to offer much resistance to Asanoyama. Overcoming the odds of a 3-12 career H2H, Takekaze also found himself in the win column against Myogiryu, as did Ikioi against Tochinoshin which has now ensured the makuuchi survival of Kinta's favourite.

Our three juryo promotion frontrunners only earned one win on Day 11, and that one went to Sokokurai who overcame a spirited challenge by low-ranked Takagenji. Yutakayama found himself outgunned yet again by Hidenoumi (now 0-4 in their meetings), although it was quite the protracted battle, and Abi lost a quick one to Ishiura. It's now looking like Ishiura just might return to the top division after all, which was not exactly a given after his 1-3 opening to the basho. Definitely not returning is the other J1-ranked rikishi as Homarefuji went makekoshi today, losing to Kyokutaisei (who is KK on Day 11 for the first time in his 15 juryo appearances).

(x) kyujo Takanoiwa     M8
                        M9   Daieisho      4-7  (1)
                        M10  Ikioi         5-6  (o)
(3) 2-5-4 Aoiyama       M11  Asanoyama     5-6  (1)
                        M12
(2)  4-7  Takekaze      M13
(1)  6-5  Kotoyuki      M14  Daiamami      4-7  (3)
(2)  5-6  Nishikigi     M15  Myogiryu      6-5  (2)
(x) kyujo Ura           M16  ---

(x)  3-8  Homarefuji    J1   Ishiura       6-5  (2)
(~)  4-7  Kyokushuho    J2   Ryuden        6-5  (3)
(4)  5-6  Tokushoryu    J3   Yutakayama    7-4  (2)
(~)  5-6  Meisei        J4   Azumaryu      5-6  (~)
(x)  4-7  Sadanoumi     J5   Abi           8-3  (2)
(3)  8-3  Kyokutaisei   J6
                        J7   Sokokurai    10-1  (1)
                        J8
                        J9   Chiyonoo      7-4  (~)
(~)  8-3  Hidenoumi     J10

 

The juryo demotion table is starting to get cleaned out as rikishi pile up their last needed wins, and today's torikumi actually saw rikishi do so in each of the first four bouts, so Takanosho, Gagamaru, Toyohibiki and Osunaarashi can now plan ahead for Hatsu basho as sekitori. Kotoeko joined them a bit later in the session, in the process also ensuring Daiseido's return to the unpaid ranks. Amakaze and Yamaguchi both lost their fifth in a row and are looking increasingly endangered. 

Takanosho's win dropped visitor Kizenryu to 3-3, a record shared by top-ranked Tobizaru now after he sent last basho's makushita yusho winner Kagamio to makekoshi. (I expected Kagamio to do much worse up there, quite honestly, so kudos to him despite the MK.) The Ms3 pair Shimanoumi and Daishoho, who were arguably hard done by in the last banzuke-making, both earned win #4 against their lower-ranked opposition Dewahayate and Kizaki, and might yet overcome their unfortunate ranking position.

The frontrunner for promotion is now Mitoryu with 5 wins after beating Akiseyama (who didn't seem to have much of a plan beyond "be heavy" today), but even Mitoryu could still find himself as low as the 5th spot in the promotion queue so he's far from certain to move up yet. The other Ms4 Akua hurt his chances with a loss to Asabenkei. And in the day's highlight bout Tochihiryu maintained his chances of a return to sekitoridom by improving to 6-0 against fellow yusho contender Chiyonoumi.

                        J6   Amakaze       2-9  (2)
(o)  4-7  Kotoeko       J7
(1)  4-7  Seiro         J8
(2)  3-8  Terutsuyoshi  J9
                        J10  Yamaguchi     4-7  (2)
(x) kyujo Chiyootori    J11  Toyohibiki    6-5  (o)
(o)  7-4  Gagamaru      J12  Daiseido      2-9  (x)
(o)  7-4  Osunaarashi   J13  Takanosho     7-4  (o)
(2)  6-5  Takagenji     J14  Yago          6-5  (2)

                        Ms1  Tobizaru      3-3
                        Ms2  Kizenryu      3-3
     4-2  Daishoho      Ms3  Shimanoumi    4-2
     5-1  Mitoryu       Ms4  Akua          4-2
                        Ms5  Kagamio       2-4  (x)
                        Ms6  Asabenkei     5-1
                        ...
                        Ms10 Tochihiryu    6-0

Another guest wrestler was needed for the Day 12 juryo torikumi, and they have made the straight-forward choice by picking the highest-ranked promotion contender in Tobizaru; he faces Yago tomorrow.

Edited by Asashosakari
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8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Overcoming the odds of a 3-12 career H2H, Takekaze also found himself in the win column against Myogiryu

I, for one, know how much that stung you. B-)

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Juryo yusho race:

10-1 Sokokurai
9-2 ---
8-3 Abi, Kyokutaisei, Hidenoumi
7-4 Yutakayama, Chiyonoo, Gagamaru, Osunaarashi, Takanosho

It's starting to look as though Sokokurai has this one in the bag after Abi's loss today, especially considering that he has already met the three 8-3 guys and beaten them all (his sole loss came against 3-8 Terutsuyoshi).

Up for Day 12: Sokokurai against the highest-ranked 7-4 Yutakayama, arguably his biggest remaining challenge. Abi also meets a 7-4'er in Gagamaru, as does Hidenoumi with Osunaarashi, and Kyokutaisei goes against promotion-seeking Ishiura (6-5), fighting in the last bout of the session just like he did today.

Lower division yusho races (Day 11 results and links to video):

6-0 Ms10w Tochihiryu (Kasugano)
5-1 Ms27w Chiyonoumi (Kokonoe)
5-1 Ms34e Kotokuzan (Arashio)
6-0 Ms49w Kiribayama (Michinoku)

6-0 Sd14w Kotomisen (Sadogatake)
5-1 Sd24w Taichiyama (Chiganoura)
6-0 Sd53e Tomokaze (Oguruma)
5-1 Sd63e Narutaki (Isenoumi)
6-0 Sd79w Tsuyukusa (Otake)
5-1 Sd100e Fujikawa (Oguruma)

6-0 Jd15w Shoji (Musashigawa)
5-1 Jd39w Daiseiho (Shibatayama)
6-0 Jd49e Torakio (Naruto)
5-1 Jd60w Masutenryu (Chiganoura)
5-1 Jd82w Arikawa (Nishonoseki)
6-0 Jd93e Saito (Michinoku)

6-0 Jk18e Kotoseigo (Sadogatake)

Not much to write home about in the four quickly-decided Jk and Jd matches - although I was surprised at how easily Daiseiho was turned around by Shoji, as though he didn't expect him to have that power. The five bouts in sandanme and makushita were all worth the price of admission, however, and there are definitely worse ways to spend a couple of minutes than watching them.

So, it's come down to Tochihiryu and Kiribayama in makushita, and given the pedigree of the latter it would be very surprising if they avoid the direct decider and put Tochihiryu's promotion on the line against somebody else. That leaves 7 contenders to pair up further down, with one cross-division matchup unless they want to use three 5-1's. Either Tsuyukusa (Sd) - Shoji (Jd) and Saito (Jd) - Kotoseigo (Jk) would be perfectly acceptable, but the second option would lead to Shoji and Torakio meeting already, and they might as well try to engineer that as a playoff bout. Time to wait and see what they decide after Day 12.

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Is there a certain number of wins that would likely open an extra sanyaku spot for Hokutofuji if there is otherwise too much of a clog to promote him? Or is that not a thing with a maegashira who is that low in the joi-jin? I notice that 51 out of 53 M3s who had 10 or 11 wins got promoted to sanyaku (38/40 with10, 13/13 with 11), but without a sharp ranking eye it's hard for me to tell if that simply reflects how rare it is for there to be too many stronger candidates/no one being demoted from sanyaku, rather than a willingness to accommodate high performers by creating a new spot for them (some of the 'after' basho do have 3 komusubi/sekiwake spots but most don't).

Edited by Katooshu

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14 and 1 with a yusho playoff or 15 and 0 are about the only score that would absolutely force a 3rd slot.

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1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

Is there a certain number of wins that would likely open an extra sanyaku spot for Hokutofuji if there is otherwise too much of a clog to promote him?

He's in the rijicho's stable, so 9-6 should do it. ;-)

More seriously, my personal feeling is that at 12-3 he'd become nearly impossible to deny, and even at 11-4 the sumo-watching public would probably expect them to promote him from M3.

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Was hoping Abi would have been able to scratch out a win yesterday to keep the race interesting, but now i am just hoping for a strong finish so we can see him in the upper division sooner rather then later :)

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In terms of extra Komusubi promotions, if you think they'd do the same thing that they did in 2006, 11-4 from M3w would be good enough, as would 10-5 from M1w.  That was the last time there were more than 2 Komusubi.  The time previous to that was Takatoriki's Yusho from the bottom of the division, which probably wouldn't happen today and is worthless for comparison anyway.  It happened a lot more often in the years just prior to that, and I think it was because there were two heya (Takanohana's and Musashimaru's) that had a lot of joi rikishi that led to there just being more wins available up there.

 

See http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&having=3&form1_rank=k&form1_year=>1990&gsort_by=basho

 

Edited by Gurowake
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Day 12 (results, text-only results):

    0-3-9 Harumafuji    Y1   Hakuho       11-1
    4-6-2 Kisenosato    Y2   Kakuryu      kyujo
     7-5  Goeido        O    Takayasu      8-4

A quick one for Hakuho against sekiwake Mitakeumi to collect his 11th win, but the state of the yusho race remains the same as the pursuing duo Hokutofuji and Okinoumi were also victorious and reached double-digits.

Hokutofuji's win came at the expense of Takayasu, and perhaps wasn't too surprising with the ozeki already kachikoshi and clearly not at 100% this basho to begin with. Goeido also lost in a lengthy battle with Ichinojo who finally showed some much-needed aggression and clinched kachikoshi.

The second sekiwake Yoshikaze was also part of a protracted battle and seemed to suffer a foot injury as he was being thrown by Chiyonokuni to end the match. Quite the inopportune timing, of course, with him still in rank purgatory at 6-6. Komusubi Onosho kept his own sanyaku survival hopes alive for now with a quick defeat of Chiyotairyu (now makekoshi), while Kotoshogiku picked up another loss against Tochiozan and might even find himself falling out of the joi-jin altogether at this rate.

It's getting very crowded in the high maegashira ranks with three more early kachikoshi, as Takakeisho (against fellow M1 Tamawashi) and Arawashi (beating Kaisei) joined Ichinojo in improving their score lines to 8-4.

     7-5  Mitakeumi     S1   Yoshikaze     6-6
(x) 0-5-7 Terunofuji    S2
(x)  3-9  Kotoshogiku   K    Onosho        5-7

     8-4  Tamawashi     M1   Takakeisho    8-4
(x)  4-8  Chiyotairyu   M2
                        M3   Hokutofuji   10-2
                        M4   Ichinojo      8-4
     7-5  Takarafuji    M5   Arawashi      8-4
                        M6   Tochinoshin   7-5
                        M7
                        M8
     9-3  Endo          M9
                        M10
                        M11
    10-2  Okinoumi      M12

This basho no longer has enough top-rankers to facilitate the usual four-man roundrobin over the final three days, so it's only going to be a three-rikishi deal this time, with the ozeki matchup leading off tomorrow before each ozeki proceeds to face yokozuna Hakuho on Days 14 and 15.


Kotoyuki defeated Aoiyama in a rather questionable decision today and has ensured his top division presence for January, while the Bulgarian is now just one loss from a likely demotion. It wasn't a great day overall for the demotion candidates - the rest of them went 1-5 with only Takekaze pulling off a victory.

Down in juryo we have our first by-the-numbers promotion contender after Sokokurai had another excellent showing to beat Yutakayama and move up to 11 wins. One more shiroboshi should make his return to makuuchi absolutely certain. The #2 contender is now Ishiura who showed strong sumo in defeating Kyokutaisei and is closing in on kachikoshi. Other matches involving the promotion contenders saw Ryuden beating Kotoeko and Abi losing to Gagamaru despite a major henka.

(x) kyujo Takanoiwa     M8
                        M9   Daieisho      4-8  (1)
                        M10
(3) 2-6-4 Aoiyama       M11  Asanoyama     5-7  (1)
                        M12
(1)  5-7  Takekaze      M13
(o)  7-5  Kotoyuki      M14  Daiamami      4-8  (3)
(2)  5-7  Nishikigi     M15  Myogiryu      6-6  (2)
(x) kyujo Ura           M16  ---

                        J1   Ishiura       7-5  (1)
(x)  4-8  Kyokushuho    J2   Ryuden        7-5  (2)
(~)  5-7  Tokushoryu    J3   Yutakayama    7-5  (2)
(~)  6-6  Meisei        J4   Azumaryu      5-7  (x)
                        J5   Abi           8-4  (2)
(3)  8-4  Kyokutaisei   J6
                        J7   Sokokurai    11-1  (o)
                        J8
                        J9   Chiyonoo      7-5  (x)
(x)  8-4  Hidenoumi     J10


Takagenji and Yago at J14 had identical results for the 5th day in a row, beating Chiyonoo and visitor Tobizaru respectively, and at 7-5 they're now almost safe from demotion. Already secure after today is Seiro who had little trouble against (rather ailing-looking) Kyokushuho. Amakaze and Yamaguchi were also victorious on Day 12, while Terutsuyoshi lost for the third straight day and is falling back into the trouble zone.

No action in makushita outside of Tobizaru's juryo defeat which has concluded a makekoshi tournament for him and a likely drop back to around Ms4/5.

                        J6   Amakaze       3-9  (1)
                        J7
(o)  5-7  Seiro         J8
(2)  3-9  Terutsuyoshi  J9
                        J10  Yamaguchi     5-7  (1)
(x) kyujo Chiyootori    J11
                        J12  Daiseido      2-10 (x)
                        J13
(1)  7-5  Takagenji     J14  Yago          7-5  (1)

                        Ms1  Tobizaru      3-4  (x)
                        Ms2  Kizenryu      3-3
     4-2  Daishoho      Ms3  Shimanoumi    4-2
     5-1  Mitoryu       Ms4  Akua          4-2
                        Ms5
                        Ms6  Asabenkei     5-1
                        ...
                        Ms10 Tochihiryu    6-0

Tomorrow's exchange bout features Terutsuyoshi on the juryo side, the first rikishi to go into one from the single-digit ranks in a year, and the first to get selected as early as Day 13 in six. He faces Daishoho who could make huge strides with a win as it would guarantee him at least the #3 slot in the promotion queue (to be potentially surpassed by only Mitoryu and Tochihiryu).

Tough bouts also for the other demotion candidates, who all face opponents from the top five juryo ranks.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Juryo yusho race:

11-1 Sokokurai
10-2 ---
9-3 ---
8-4 Abi, Kyokutaisei, Hidenoumi, Gagamaru, Osunaarashi, Takanosho

Juryo juryoed hard today and consequently all three "pursuers" scored a loss for Day 12. Sokokurai somehow managed to escape the customary carnage and has now opened up a three-win lead to be practically assured of the championship. Surprisingly it's been less than two years since the last Day 13 yusho in juryo, so not quite history-making if Sokokurai clinches tomorrow.

Up on the schedule for Day 13: It's up to Takanosho to prevent the yusho being decided. None of the other 8-4's are paired up so he might be the only pursuer if he wins.


Lower division yusho races:

6-0 Ms10w Tochihiryu (Kasugano)
6-0 Ms49w Kiribayama (Michinoku)

6-0 Sd14w Kotomisen (Sadogatake)
6-0 Sd53e Tomokaze (Oguruma)
6-0 Sd79w Tsuyukusa (Otake)

6-0 Jd15w Shoji (Musashigawa)
6-0 Jd49e Torakio (Naruto)
6-0 Jd93e Saito (Michinoku)

6-0 Jk18e Kotoseigo (Sadogatake)

They've decided to do Shoji-Torakio and Saito-Kotoseigo, which likely means that the lowest two divisions will see their yusho decided in a few hours. Sandanme also seems designed to produce an immediate winner as they have ignored the rank differences and scheduled Kotomisen-Tomokaze rather than Tomokaze-Tsuyukasa for the head-to-head bout. Tsuyukusa now goes against 5-1 Sd63e Narutaki who was taken out of the race by Tomokaze in the previous round, certainly a formidable matchup and one in which the zensho rikishi is arguably the underdog.

And last not least it's indeed a direct decider in makushita as well with Kiribayama and Tochihiryu battling it out in the first match after the juryo dohyo-iri.

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And the Day 12 update on our intrepid former sekitori.

new KK: Daishoho, Shimanoumi, Toyonoshima, Amuru, Nionoumi

new MK: Tobizaru, Kagamio, Asahisho, Tokushinho
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out
2-4 Ms1e Kitataiki Yamahibiki 35 2
3-4 Ms1w Tobizaru Oitekaze 25 2
2-4 Ms2e Kitaharima Yamahibiki 31 1
3-3 Ms2w Kizenryu Kise 32 1
4-2 Ms3e Daishoho Oitekaze 23 6
4-2 Ms3w Shimanoumi Kise 28 8
1-5 Ms5e Satoyama Onoe 36 2
2-4 Ms5w Kagamio Kagamiyama 29 9
 
2-4 Ms6e Asahisho Tomozuna 28 3
5-1 Ms6w Asabenkei Takasago 28 7
4-2 Ms9e Akiseyama Kise 32 9
3-3 Ms9w Dewahayate Dewanoumi 28 8
1-5 Ms10e Takaryu Kise 25 14
6-0 Ms10w Tochihiryu Kasugano 30 17
4-2 Ms13w Toyonoshima Tokitsukaze 34 7
4-2 Ms14e Jokoryu Kise 29 9
 
2-4 Ms16e Oiwato Hakkaku 36 24
3-3 Ms17w Tenkaiho Onoe 33 9
3-3 Ms20e Fujiazuma Tamanoi 30 4
2-4 Ms23w Tokushinho Kise 33 12
5-1 Ms25w Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 26 26
4-2 Ms29e Amuru Onomatsu 34 5
 
3-3 Ms31w Keitenkai Onomatsu 27 31
5-1 Ms32w Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 35 22
3-3 Ms36e Sakigake Shibatayama 31 17
4-2 Ms39e Higonojo Kise 33 21
kyujo Ms51w Sotairyu Tokitsukaze 35 16
2-4 Ms55e Hitenryu Tatsunami 33 37
4-2 Ms55w Nionoumi Yamahibiki 30 26
3-3 Ms60e Kaonishiki Azumazeki 39 37
 
6-0 Sd14w Kotomisen Sadogatake 34 24
kyujo Sd21w Shotenro Fujishima 35 10
3-3 Sd35e Dairaido Takadagawa 37 67
3-3 Sd57e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 40 19
0-1-5 Sd60e Masakaze Oguruma 34 30
3-3 Sd63w Masunoyama Chiganoura 27 16
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I'd definitely cheer a long-awaited Ryuden promotion to Makuuchi. He showed a lot of patience and spirit in overcoming his injury troubles, and of the 11 rikishi to have spent the whole year in Juryo he has the best overall record. Homarefuji has had four decent basho, but unfortunately at J1 he picked the worst time to have a bad result. Kyokutaisei too has picked up four kachi-koshi, so a promotion for him would also be welcome although he looks like an outsider in that race.

I want Tsurugisho to finish 8-7 here, a perfectly even record for the year would befit the current King of Middle Juryo.
 

Overall record as of Day 12:

Ryuden		48-39
Homarefuji	45-42
Kyokutaisei	45-42
Tsurugisho	43-44
Amakaze		42-45
Terutsuyoshi	42-45
Azumaryu	41-46
Yamaguchi	41-46
Hidenoumi	40-47
Kotoeko		40-47
Seiro		38-49

 

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Day 13 (results, text-only results):

   0-3-10 Harumafuji    Y1   Hakuho       12-1
    4-6-3 Kisenosato    Y2   Kakuryu      kyujo
     8-5  Goeido        O    Takayasu      8-5

In a truly wacky bout with two Houdini acts Hakuho eventually prevailed over Takarafuji to score win #12 and maintain the lead for the yusho. Hakkaku duo Hokutofuji and Okinoumi also survived spirited challenges by Yoshikaze and Tochinoshin and continue to try to chase him down. Of course it's getting harder with every day that passes, and their task has not been helped by Takayasu reinjuring himself yesterday which has caused him to withdraw, cancelling yet another of Hakuho's potential high-ranker matchups in the process. The more immediate beneficiary of that exit was Goeido though who just had to show up to collect his kachikoshi today.

We're still looking for our two sekiwake for Hatsu basho. Mitakeumi didn't stand much of a chance against a forceful Ichinojo today and is still looking for his last needed win, while Yoshikaze needs to win out now from 6-7. Even komusubi Onosho can still hope to take the step up to the third-highest rank if a slot opens up - winning his 5th match in six days he avoided makekoshi yet again and also stands at 6-7.

It's looking increasingly likely that some maegashira will be very unlucky in the next banzuke-making session and/or that we'll be getting more than the minimum four lower sanyaku spots for Hatsu. The top-ranked pair Tamawashi and Takakeisho improved to 9-4 against Endo and Tochiozan, and Hokutofuji also becomes increasingly difficult to deny. Ichinojo is still in position to put up a record that's ordinarily promotion-worthy, but may already be out of luck as he's likely stuck behind the three frontrunners in any case.

     7-6  Mitakeumi     S1   Yoshikaze     6-7
(x) 0-5-8 Terunofuji    S2
(x)  4-9  Kotoshogiku   K    Onosho        6-7

     9-4  Tamawashi     M1   Takakeisho    9-4
                        M2
                        M3   Hokutofuji   11-2
                        M4   Ichinojo      9-4
     7-6  Takarafuji    M5   Arawashi      8-5
                        M6   Tochinoshin   7-6  (x)
                        M7
                        M8
     9-4  Endo          M9
                        M10
                        M11
    11-2  Okinoumi      M12

With Takayasu out of the picture it's another maegashira opponent for Hakuho tomorrow, and the choice has fallen somewhat surprisingly on Endo. His pursuers Hokutofuji and Okinoumi are meeting Onosho and Tamawashi respectively.


The two most endangered maegashira were paired up for Day 13, and Daiamami was the fortunate winner who can still hope to defend his top division spot. Aoiyama can theoretically still survive despite the loss, but quite a lot would have to work out in his favour over the final two days. Nishikigi and Myogiryu at the bottom of the rankings have both been on losing streaks of late and are back in deep trouble now. Asanoyama also lost and is makekoshi for the first time in his career, while Takekaze and Daieisho saved their spots today.

Sokokurai's Day 13 opponent Takanosho was up for the battle, but the yusho leader (and now champion) pulled out another win and should have ensured his return to makuuchi now. Ryuden took a big step to join him by earning his kachikoshi in victory over Seiro, and Abi also moved closer towards promotion by beating Yamaguchi. Ishiura missed out for now against Amakaze.

(x) kyujo Takanoiwa     M8
                        M9   Daieisho      5-8  (o)
                        M10
(~) 2-7-4 Aoiyama       M11  Asanoyama     5-8  (1)
                        M12
(o)  6-7  Takekaze      M13
                        M14  Daiamami      5-8  (2)
(2)  5-8  Nishikigi     M15  Myogiryu      6-7  (2)
(x) kyujo Ura           M16  ---

                        J1   Ishiura       7-6  (1)
                        J2   Ryuden        8-5  (1)
(x)  5-8  Tokushoryu    J3   Yutakayama    7-6  (2)
(~)  7-6  Meisei        J4
                        J5   Abi           9-4  (1)
(2)  9-4  Kyokutaisei   J6
                        J7   Sokokurai    12-1  (o)


That win by Amakaze will see him remain in juryo, after what has been a decidedly unpretty basho for him. At this rate he's probably more likely to find himself in makushita soon than taking a second stab at makuuchi. Everybody else lost today (so yes, yet again identical results at J14), including Terutsuyoshi who wasn't able to hold back the challenge by makushita visitor Daishoho.

The first certain promotee is not Daishoho though, but freshly crowned yusho winner Tochihiryu who unleashed a four-alarm henka on Kiribayama to assure himself of the return to the paid ranks after almost three years. Hatsu will be his 5th stint in juryo and 9th basho altogether; his only kachikoshi record came in his debut back in Haru 2013.

                        J6   Amakaze       4-9  (o)
                        J7
                        J8
(2)  3-10 Terutsuyoshi  J9
                        J10  Yamaguchi     5-8  (1)
(x) kyujo Chiyootori    J11
                        J12  Daiseido      2-11 (x)
                        J13
(1)  7-6  Takagenji     J14  Yago          7-6  (1)

                        Ms1
                        Ms2  Kizenryu      3-3
     5-2  Daishoho      Ms3  Shimanoumi    4-2
     5-1  Mitoryu       Ms4  Akua          4-2
                        Ms5
                        Ms6  Asabenkei     5-1
                        ...
                        Ms10 Tochihiryu    7-0  (o)

Takayasu's withdrawal has caused things to shift again in the torikumi matters, so we're getting two juryo-makushita matchups tomorrow. Bubble boy Terutsuyoshi has been placed against Mitoryu, while Yamaguchi has to contend against KK-seeking Kizenryu. Shimanoumi and Akua will likely be sent up on Day 15, but could also battle things out head-to-head if they're no longer needed for exchange duty.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Juryo yusho race:

12-1 Sokokurai
11-2 ---
10-3 ---
9-4 Abi, Kyokutaisei, Hidenoumi, Gagamaru

We're done here early and all that's left is for Sokokurai to perhaps go for the first 14-win record in juryo in three years. Congrats on the yusho!


Lower division yusho races (Day 13 results and links to video):

7-0 Ms10w Tochihiryu (Kasugano)
6-1 Ms49w Kiribayama (Michinoku)

6-1 Sd14w Kotomisen (Sadogatake)
7-0 Sd53e Tomokaze (Oguruma)
7-0 Sd79w Tsuyukusa (Otake)

7-0 Jd15w Shoji (Musashigawa)
6-1 Jd49e Torakio (Naruto)
6-1 Jd93e Saito (Michinoku)

7-0 Jk18e Kotoseigo (Sadogatake)

"Kiribayama and Tochihiryu battling it out" turned out to be a bit optimistic as Tochihiryu short-circuited the bout with a massive henka. Hard to fault the guy considering how long he's had to work towards getting this opportunity... Kiribayama will be going back to the high Ms20's for Hatsu, not far off from where he was prior to his injury drop.

Sandanme will see a Day 15 playoff after all thanks to Tsuyukusa's hard-fought win over Narutaki. Two 7-0 scores in eight months, not bad for a guy with no prior sumo experience even given his relatively advanced age for a newcomer. He'll be going against Tomokaze who prevailed over veteran Kotomisen due to his superior ring sense. (Arguably the only major skill I'm able to spot; he's otherwise pretty meh for a collegiate guy, IMHO.) Both guys will be debuting in makushita next time, Tomokaze around Ms30 and Tsukuyusa around Ms50, and I suspect both will have their hands full with that.

The lowest two championships were decided as expected. Kotoseigo had no trouble defeating Saito to secure the jonokuchi yusho - it's his first title after missing out in two earlier opportunities back in 2015, in jonidan against Sato (now Takakeisho) and in sandanme against Chiyonokuni. That turned Shoji-Torakio into a deciding bout, where the Bulgarian was on the offensive for much of the time but just couldn't finish Shoji off, and eventually was overpowered and marched out. Both will be going to sandanme for Hatsu, albeit around 60 ranks apart, so they will only meet again if it's another yusho decider (which I don't expect Shoji to get anywhere near of).

Congrats to all winners!

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Aoiyama may get some luck. He's already behind Ura and Takanoiwa in the demotion queue and now Myogiryu has pulled out (or so I understand). If Harumafuji is off the banzuke there would be four spots ahead of his.

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Nah, there's no way they will demote myogiryu over aoiyama. That said there's a bunch of juryo guys on the edge of promotion and their over promotion would be smaller than the crazy multi rank underdemotion that would have to happen with aoiyama. There's going to be a big exchange this basho it seems.

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8 hours ago, Sakura said:

Aoiyama may get some luck. He's already behind Ura and Takanoiwa in the demotion queue and now Myogiryu has pulled out (or so I understand). If Harumafuji is off the banzuke there would be four spots ahead of his.

I would say there is zero chance they demote Takanoiwa after going kyujo due to a beating so that is no help. Aoiyama can get lucky though and probably will.

Everyone is talking about Harumafuji's retirement, rightly I think. Between the scandal AND his record I think he is gone unfortunately.  He has only 47 wins this year out of a potential 90 which puts him just above a losing record, as a Yokozuna. Yes, he won a yusho but that was with a playoff at 11-4 AND giving up 4 kinboshi at the same time while never facing another Yokozuna.  Along with that 11 wins is his highest total since Sept 2016.

The other thing which I don't see much mention of is the potential that Kakuryu will go intai in January too.  He has all of 18 wins this year and only finished 1 basho where he managed to get 10 wins. I think they will push hard for both he and Harumafuji to retire. So that is 2 potential openings right there.

If things fall right fall right the bottom of maegashira is in big trouble. Ura and Myogiryu are gone already IMO. Daiamami and Nishigi have must wins on Day 15 too IMO. If they both lose  and the guys at the top of Juryo with winning records win we could be looking at 6 promotions in January and Aoiyama would still be safe.

This is a long shot disaster scenario I know. But not as long a shot as usual I think. If that happens and  Ishiura ,  Ryuden,  Yutakayama,  Abi and Kyokutaisei win they could be promoted along with Sokokurai  and Aoiyama would still be safe. I think if you asked those in charge this would actually be their preference.  They want new blood. You've got a 39 year old with 1 leg on the verge of a KK in maeigashira. This is not supposed to be the Walking Dead.   I think they only person they would save is Ura and there is no way they can do that.

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Day 14 (results, text-only results):

   0-3-11 Harumafuji    Y1   Hakuho       13-1
    4-6-4 Kisenosato    Y2   Kakuryu      kyujo
     9-5  Goeido        O    Takayasu     8-5-1

Tamawashi demonstrated the relevance of the current 11-rank difference between him and Okinoumi, and defeated the yusho pursuer rather decisively, and komusubi Onosho also prevailed over Hokutofuji. That served to turn today's final bout Hakuho-Endo into a potential yusho-clincher for the yokozuna, and he made short work of the (former?) hope to secure his 40th top division championship, aptly enough in his 100th professional tournament. I suspect we may hear him detail his next goal number in the yusho interview tomorrow.

Ozeki Goeido kept his hopes alive for a win-loss score that at least looks respectable, winning #9 against Takarafuji who's been thrown to the wolves from M5 due to all the withdrawals and stands at the always tricky 7-7 now. Also 7-7 is Onosho after today's victory, and his sanyaku survival will be at stake against, yeah, Takarafuji.

We'll be seeking exactly one sekiwake for Hatsu now after Mitakeumi clinched kachikoshi easily against Arawashi and Yoshikaze was overpowered by Ichinojo to go MK. There are no less than four perfectly credible contenders between Onosho, the M1 pair Tamawashi and Takakeisho who both reached double-digits today, and Hokutofuji despite today's defeat. Hokutofuji and Tamawashi are paired in a bout that will decide which one of them is going to be higher on the next banzuke, while Takakeisho goes against low-ranked Okinoumi.

(On a sidenote: As mentioned elsewhere it's the first time ever that both M1 already have 10 wins before the final day, and only the second time ever for full records.)

All in all we could end up with an easily solvable sanyaku puzzle if both Yoshikaze (in the sekiwake matchup) and Onosho lose tomorrow, or a total mess if they both win. Ichinojo is still lurking in the background with 10 wins, but given recent decisions he's likely altogether out of the race as even 11-4 should be too little to force an extra-extra promotion for him (unless they say "to hell with it, let's promote everybody"). He'll figure into the sanyaku soroibumi, in any case, as he's been chosen to take part in the final day's third-last bout, facing komusubi Kotoshogiku.

     8-6  Mitakeumi     S1   Yoshikaze     6-8
(x) 0-5-9 Terunofuji    S2
(x)  5-9  Kotoshogiku   K    Onosho        7-7

    10-4  Tamawashi     M1   Takakeisho   10-4
                        M2
                        M3   Hokutofuji   11-3
                        M4   Ichinojo     10-4
(x)  7-7  Takarafuji    M5   Arawashi      8-6  (x)
                        M6
                        M7
                        M8
(x)  9-5  Endo          M9
                        M10
                        M11
(x) 11-3  Okinoumi      M12


Ailing Aoiyama was easily outmuscled by Nishikigi today, and with at best 3 wins there's no hope for the Bulgarian to stay in makuuchi now. Nishikigi, however, can still manage to hang on with another win on senshuraku, as does Daiamami whose unlikely second week recovery has brought him from 2-7 to 6-8 with victory over juryo visitor Ryuden today. Asanoyama lost and also still needs one more win by the numbers, but he's the best-positioned rikishi of the trio and the overall situation might mean that he'll be safe even with just a 5-10. Myogiryu on the other hand is very likely back to juryo after having to withdraw from the last two days due to meniscus damage.

The juryo action of Day 14 probably produced our second promotee to the top division, and it'll be a debut for 23-year-old Abi who's had an impressive year 2017 (total record 45-20) after an equally forgettable 2016. Elsewhere it was a largely disappointing day for the contenders with Ishiura, Ryuden, Kyokutaisei and outside shot Meisei all losing. Only Yutakayama improved his chances with a win.

Yusho winner Sokokurai marched on to 13-1 in another strong showing against lower-ranked Chiyonoo.

(x) kyujo Takanoiwa     M8
                        M9
                        M10
(x) 2-8-4 Aoiyama       M11  Asanoyama     5-9  (1)
                        M12
                        M13
                        M14  Daiamami      6-8  (1)
(1)  6-8  Nishikigi     M15  Myogiryu      6-8  (~)
(x) kyujo Ura           M16  ---

                        J1   Ishiura       7-7  (1)
                        J2   Ryuden        8-6  (1)
                        J3   Yutakayama    8-6  (1)
(x)  7-7  Meisei        J4
                        J5   Abi          10-4  (o)
(~)  9-5  Kyokutaisei   J6
                        J7   Sokokurai    13-1  (o)

With so many rikishi on the bubble on both sides of the divisional boundary it's virtually impossible to say how many promotions there will ultimately be after tomorrow. Myogiryu's kyujo means there's no mandatory crossover bout in the makuuchi torikumi again, and they elected to not schedule any optional ones either.

As for what's happening:

In juryo: Abi-Meisei, Yutakayama-Osunaarashi (J13e 9-5), Kyokutaisei-Tokushoryu (J3e 5-9), Ryuden-Yamaguchi (J10w 5-9 - up/down special!), Ishiura-Chiyonoo (J9w 9-6), and Sokokurai-Homarefuji (J1e 3-11...an odd choice)
In makuuchi: Asanoyama-Chiyomaru (M8w 6-8), Daiamami-Shodai (M7w 8-6), Nishikigi-Daishomaru (M7e 4-10), and Aoiyama-Shohozan (M3e 3-11)


Yamaguchi's Day 14 result is already quasi-spoiled by the above paragraph - needing to win to get off the demotion bubble he was thrown around by a trademark Kizenryu uwatenage and now enters Day 15 with his juryo position on the line in a very tough matchup with promotion-seeking Ryuden. Terutsuyoshi was overwhelmed by Mitoryu in the other exchange bout and is now sent back to the unpaid ranks while the burly new Mongolian is headed for juryo. (And something I overlooked yesterday - the scheduling of that matchup had also ensured Daishoho's promotion already. He'll be back in juryo for his second attempt after spending all of 2017 in makushita, needing to go 25-17 to get back up.)

In further Day 14 action Takagenji and Yago were joined at the hip again, this time in mutual losses, which has left both of them at 7-7 before senshuraku. 

Kizenryu earned his kachikoshi today with the aforementioned victory, but looks to potentially be on the outside of the promotion decision as there's currently no available slot for him and both Shimanoumi and Akua are paired up with a J14 7-7 (Akua-Yago and Shimanoumi-Takagenji). The calculus should be easy here: If they win they'll be pulling down their own opponent and taking his juryo slot. Consequently Kizenryu will have to hope for Yamaguchi to fall as well.

Asabenkei just outside the top 5 zone demolished youngster Shonannoumi today for his 6th win and ought to find himself as one of the highest-ranked rikishi in makushita next time, as even some scandal-related retirements would probably be more likely to benefit some underperforming juryo guys.

(x)  3-11 Terutsuyoshi  J9
                        J10  Yamaguchi     5-9  (1)
(x) kyujo Chiyootori    J11
                        J12  Daiseido      2-12 (x)
                        J13
(1)  7-7  Takagenji     J14  Yago          7-7  (1)

                        Ms1
                        Ms2  Kizenryu      4-3
(o)  5-2  Daishoho      Ms3  Shimanoumi    4-2
(o)  6-1  Mitoryu       Ms4  Akua          4-2
                        Ms5
                        Ms6  Asabenkei     6-1
                        ...
                        Ms10 Tochihiryu    7-0  (o)

In addition to all that we're going to have a makushita rikishi competing in a special 8th bout for the first time in two years due to Myogiryu's departure leaving a hole in the mapped out sekitori schedule. Satoyama (Ms5e 1-6) has gotten the call and will have the opportunity to soften his fall a bit against juryo Daiseido.

And just as a reminder: The break between juryo and makuuchi will see the sandanme yusho playoff between Tomokaze and Tsuyukusa.

Edited by Asashosakari
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5 hours ago, Rocks said:

I would say there is zero chance they demote Takanoiwa after going kyujo due to a beating so that is no help. Aoiyama can get lucky though and probably will.

Everyone is talking about Harumafuji's retirement, rightly I think. Between the scandal AND his record I think he is gone unfortunately.  He has only 47 wins this year out of a potential 90 which puts him just above a losing record, as a Yokozuna. Yes, he won a yusho but that was with a playoff at 11-4 AND giving up 4 kinboshi at the same time while never facing another Yokozuna.  Along with that 11 wins is his highest total since Sept 2016.

Eeeh...? Reasons for kyujo do not come into demotions, only number of wins. Well, more or less. Takanoiwa will be mid-Juryo, at best.

And Harumafuji's record is not a problem. He did his duty when all the others dropped out of Aki and won the yusho. The yusho number is of less significance. If he goes, it will be soley because of the scandal.

Edited by Maguroyama

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Asashosakari; Why is Ms2w Kizenryu (4-3) on the outside looking in? If Ms4w Akua (4-2) beats J14w Yago (7-7) would he leapfrog over Kizenryu? Akua would have one more win but he is two ranks below Kizenryu.

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On ‎24‎.‎11‎.‎2017 at 00:22, Yubinhaad said:

I want Tsurugisho to finish 8-7 here, a perfectly even record for the year would befit the current King of Middle Juryo.

There you go. B-)


On another note, the final results for our former sekitori.

new KK: Kizenryu, Tenkaiho, Masunoyama

new MK: Dewahayate, Fujiazuma, Keitenkai, Sakigake, Kaonishiki, Dairaido, Yoshiazuma

Not the greatest finishing line performance there.
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out
3-4 Ms1e Kitataiki Yamahibiki 35 2
3-4 Ms1w Tobizaru Oitekaze 25 2
3-4 Ms2e Kitaharima Yamahibiki 31 1
4-3 Ms2w Kizenryu Kise 32 1
5-2 Ms3e Daishoho Oitekaze 23 6
4-3 Ms3w Shimanoumi Kise 28 8
2-6 Ms5e Satoyama Onoe 36 2
2-5 Ms5w Kagamio Kagamiyama 29 9
 
2-5 Ms6e Asahisho Tomozuna 28 3
6-1 Ms6w Asabenkei Takasago 28 7
4-3 Ms9e Akiseyama Kise 32 9
3-4 Ms9w Dewahayate Dewanoumi 28 8
2-5 Ms10e Takaryu Kise 25 14
7-0 Y Ms10w Tochihiryu Kasugano 30 17
5-2 Ms13w Toyonoshima Tokitsukaze 34 7
5-2 Ms14e Jokoryu Kise 29 9
 
2-5 Ms16e Oiwato Hakkaku 36 24
4-3 Ms17w Tenkaiho Onoe 33 9
3-4 Ms20e Fujiazuma Tamanoi 30 4
3-4 Ms23w Tokushinho Kise 33 12
5-2 Ms25w Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 26 26
5-2 Ms29e Amuru Onomatsu 34 5
 
3-4 Ms31w Keitenkai Onomatsu 27 31
5-2 Ms32w Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 35 22
3-4 Ms36e Sakigake Shibatayama 31 17
4-3 Ms39e Higonojo Kise 33 21
kyujo Ms51w Sotairyu Tokitsukaze 35 16
2-5 Ms55e Hitenryu Tatsunami 33 37
5-2 Ms55w Nionoumi Yamahibiki 30 26
3-4 Ms60e Kaonishiki Azumazeki 39 37
 
6-1 Sd14w Kotomisen Sadogatake 34 24
kyujo Sd21w Shotenro Fujishima 35 10
3-4 Sd35e Dairaido Takadagawa 37 67
3-4 Sd57e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 40 19
0-1-6 Sd60e Masakaze Oguruma 34 30
4-3 Sd63w Masunoyama Chiganoura 27 16

 

Edited by Asashosakari
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16 hours ago, Maguroyama said:

Eeeh...? Reasons for kyujo do not come into demotions, only number of wins. Well, more or less. Takanoiwa will be mid-Juryo, at best.

And Harumafuji's record is not a problem. He did his duty when all the others dropped out of Aki and won the yusho. The yusho number is of less significance. If he goes, it will be soley because of the scandal.

Even under normal circumstances over and under demotions are common so to say it's only ever wins is dubious. The situation with Takanoiwa is far from normal and I think one of the main reasons Taka went the police first. To insure his rikishi and his heya  is not hurt financially by Harmafuji's actions. Unless they are willing to come out and say Takanoiwa's beating was justified, which I doubt,  then Takanoiwa is going nowhere. Not only do I think he won't be in Juryo next basho he won't even drop. He will still be M8e. At worst they may drop him a few spots for disrespecting a Yokozuna but I doubt all the way to Juryo. To do anything more would be to suggest a rikishi could pull a Tanya Harding and his heya gain from it.   I may be wrong on that but I don't think I am.

As far as Harumafuji record, yeah it matters. It gives them a safe reason to push him out.   The Yokozuna handing out kinboshi like they are candy is not good. There were 30 this year not counting the fusen. 30. Kinboshi are supposed to be rare, not once a day and twice on Sundays. The one thing Harumafuji has in his favor is he has been out so little this year, missing only 8 matches not counting this basho which was clearly due to the scandal. Even that wouldn't mean much if not for Kakuryu and Kise being out so much. If he goes I expect to hear a lot in the press about his performance, not just his demeanor, isn't up to snuff. His Aki Yusho being seen as a last hurrah.

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