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career-high ranks

career-high ranks  

14 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Who will reach Yokozuna in their careers?

  2. 2. Who will reach Ozeki in their careers?

    • Mitakeumi
    • Yoshikaze
    • Tamawashi
    • Tochiozan
    • Hokutofuji
    • Onosho
    • Ura
    • Shodai
    • Takakeisho
    • Ichinojo
    • Kagayaki
    • Chiyonokuni
    • Chiyoshoma
    • Takanoiwa
    • Daieisho
    • Endo
    • Yutakayama
    • Asanoyama
    • Daiamami
    • Kotoyuki
    • Osunaarashi
    • Chiyootori
    • Yago
    • Takagenji
    • Other

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  • Poll closed on 11/11/17 at 23:40

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sgm    0

I noticed that most of polls here are short-term predictions.

Who will be Y/O in their careers do you think?

This poll will be closed in the first day of Kyushu.

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A Terunofuji who stays healthy long-term becomes Yokozuna, but I don't think such a Terunofuji will ever be seen. I voted "Other" as I don't see any of them becoming Yokozuna, but it's still early (for some of them at least).

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orandashoho    441

There are a few youngsters working their way up the ranks who may become serious challengers, but not for a while yet. The current crop that made it to Makuuchi have been unable to convert the mass absence of sanyaku rikishi into a yusho, which gives rise to doubting their ability to become yokozuna. Ozeki certainly seems in the cards for a few of these, if they manage to stay healthy.
I was so sure of Terunofuji but it had gone all horribly wrong for him after he got his Ozeki promotion. Is this painful struggle really all there is left for him? Does he really have no hope of returning after taking a year or so off to heal? He and his advisers certainly seem to think so.
To get to the top you have to have it all -- strength, stamina, flexibility, technique, mentality and determination -- but to remain there for any length of time you also need to be able to manage injuries. Staying healthy is so important and so difficult, and continuing to perform with a weakened body is an art. Just look at the way Hakuho was forced to change his style, and one can only imagine the cost that Harumafuji's battered body is paying for his Aki yusho. Managing to keep a fighting performance though injured is sadly necessary, and some manage it better than others... and Aminishiki fought his way back to Makuuchi without knees, even if he'll never regain his highest rank. 

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sgm    0

I have some interesting statistics.

After Futahaguro's retirement, the requirement for a Yokozuna became more strict.
Let's consider 178 bashos after that. During this interval, 10 new Yokozunae were born, so a new Yokozuna appears in every 17.8 bashos.
Future Yokozunae spend 54.6 bashos as Ozeki or below on average, so 54.6 / 17.8 = 3.07 rikishis among Ozeki or below are future Yokozunae (on average).

Using the same method, I computed the average number of future Yokozunae in each rank:
O 0.94
S 0.34
K 0.25
M 0.57
J 0.20
(Sekitori Total 2.30)
Ms 0.33
Sd 0.21
Jd 0.11
Jk 0.06
Bg 0.06
(Total 3.07)

The average number of future Ozekis in each rank:
S 1.04
K 0.57
M 1.58
J 0.55
(Sekitori Total 3.74)
Ms 1.01
Sd 0.43
Jd 0.32
Jk 0.13
Bg 0.12
(Total 5.74)

I think I've included all realistic candidates of Yokozuna and Ozeki in the poll (among current Sekitoris), so I expect 2-3 of them will be Yokozunae and 3-4 will be Ozekis.

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sgm    0

Another interesting statistics: the importance of age.

During Heisei (1989-) period, there were 95 Shin-Sanyaku. 41 of them became Sanyaku before the 25th birthday:

Takahanada 18y11m Y
Hakuho 19y10m Y
Kisenosato 20y0m Y
Tochiazuma 20y8m O
Asashoryu 20y8m Y
Wakahanada 20y10m Y
Musashimaru 21y0m Y
Tomoefuji 21y6m
Takanonami 21y7m O
Chiyootori 21y7m
Ichinojo 21y7m
Akebono 21y10m Y
Kaio 21y10m O
Musoyama 22y1m O
Chiyotaikai 22y1m O
Kotooshu 22y1m O
Ama 22y1m Y
Tochiozan 22y2m
Kotonishiki 22y3m
Miyabiyama 22y6m O
Goeido 22y7m O
Tochinoshin 22y9m
Kotoshogiku 23y2m O
Terunofuji 23y4m O
Chiyotenzan 23y5m
Takayasu 23y7m O
Takatoriki 23y8m
Dejima 23y8m O
Tochinonada 23y9m
Kakuryu 23y9m Y
Baruto 23y10m O
Tosanoumi 23y11m
Toyonoshima 23y11m
Mitakeumi 23y11m
Kyokushuzan 24y0m
Tamanoshima 24y0m
Wakanosato 24y4m
Hamanoshima 24y6m
Takanowaka 24y9m
Kotomitsuki 24y9m O
Asasekiryu 24y11m

You see that quite a lot of them became Yokozuna or Ozeki.
Onosho will join this group at the age of 21y4m.

However, surprisingly, none of the other 54 who became Sanyaku after the 25th birthday reached Ozeki.

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Churaumi    81

I’m rooting for Onosho to do big things. I thought he did really well last basho, just needs to keep his head in the game and stay healthy.

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