Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2017

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1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Of course ludicrous - but possible. I'm not predicting, I disregard statistics and probabilities, I only point out possibilities. And the trend is not based on one point but generally on the volatility of the post-basho announcements. The one data point where it actually led to a promotion was Goeido. Kise came close to it several times.

If there was no mention of it during the YDC/NSK meeting today, can we presume that a tsuna run is not on the table?

Or do we need to scour all the print media for a minor peep like the one in Hatsu Basho this year?

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About Goeindo's yokozuna run, the YDC said no one even thought about it. If Goeindo wins with zensho next basho there might be some consideration to promote him, however, a yusho doten is but only at 11 wins. The impression is not good.

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I was looking at the Kyushu 2016 post-basho discussion to find Benevolence's "I'm glad Goeido restored my faith in his abilities" or whatever quote, and I noticed there was the following from Kintamayama:
 

Quote

 

The YDC convened. Moriya the head said no way even a yusho will get him promoted. Some other members are of the same opinion. Moriya said Kisenosato lost to three hiramaku rikishi and was two wins behind the yusho winner Kakuryuu. "It's a jun-yusho where he wasn't really part of the yusho race..If he gets the yusho, I will not be raising both my hands in approval of his promotion.." said Moriya. The others pointed out his day 13 loss to Tochinoshin. "That made a bad impression," they said.

 

 

So what they say right now really is totally meaningless.

Consider that in both Kisensato's promotions in upper sanyaku, he was short of the "normal" criteria each time.  10-12-10 is pretty weak for an Ozeki run.  But Kisenosato then had 11 the next basho to show he really deserved the promotion to begin with.  Almost the same sort of thing happened with his Yokozuna promotion; a very weak jun-yusho followed by a yusho was seen as "good enough" since they really wanted to promote him, and he goes out and wins the next tournament to show he deserved the promotion and has now met the normal criteria.

Goeido on the other hand barely scraped 8 wins together his first tournament as an Ozeki, much like many of his Sekiwake basho.  He was then 5-10 in the next basho, and had to win 3 in a row at the end of the succeeding basho to keep his rank.  He was kadoban twice more before ever getting more than 9 wins.  He has in no way shown himself truly deserving of the rank in the way Kisenosato had on multiple occasions.  If he were to be promoted to Yokozuna, he might be forced to retire before any of the other current Yokozuna.

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7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

...a very weak jun-yusho followed by a yusho was seen as "good enough" since they really wanted to promote him...

That's not the way I remember it.

It was Kisenosato's overall performance throughout 2016 followed immediately by his Hatsu 2017 yusho that clinched his yokozuna promotion, so his 'yusho equivalent' was 4 jun-yusho and the highest number of wins for the year.

Other than that, I agree with everything you say - including the fact that the NSK/YDC really wanted to promote him and adjusted their requirements to suit.

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11 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Goeido on the other hand barely scraped 8 wins together his first tournament as an Ozeki, much like many of his Sekiwake basho.  He was then 5-10 in the next basho, and had to win 3 in a row at the end of the succeeding basho to keep his rank.  He was kadoban twice more before ever getting more than 9 wins.  He has in no way shown himself truly deserving of the rank in the way Kisenosato had on multiple occasions.  If he were to be promoted to Yokozuna, he might be forced to retire before any of the other current Yokozuna.

That gets to the heart of the matter. The notion of Goeido being put on tsunatori right now (whether officially or backdoor) is silly not because the directors and the YDC would never say one thing and then do another. We know they do that. It's silly because Goeido has neither given any reason for anyone to believe that he would be up to the task of holding the yokozuna rank, nor is there (as far as I can tell) any sort of public yearning for him to gain promotion. And if there's one thing we can definitely tell about the current guys in charge, it's that they follow public opinion, they don't lead it.

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

It's silly because Goeido has neither given any reason for anyone to believe that he would be up to the task of holding the yokozuna rank...

You really think one zensho yusho isn't reason enough? I''m still not convinced. Not that I'm looking forward to Yokozuna Goeido, don't get me wrong, but the PTB have been pulling too my rabbits out of the hat recently for me to rule out anything as unlikely.

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No peep on the tsunatori from

1. NSK

2. YDC

3. Sakaigawa oyakata

to date.

we will revisit this before Kyushu Basho start. 

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3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

The notion of Goeido being put on tsunatori right now (whether officially or backdoor) is silly not because the directors and the YDC would never say one thing and then do another. We know they do that. It's silly because Goeido has neither given any reason for anyone to believe that he would be up to the task of holding the yokozuna rank, nor is there (as far as I can tell) any sort of public yearning for him to gain promotion. And if there's one thing we can definitely tell about the current guys in charge, it's that they follow public opinion, they don't lead it.

Exactly, they follow public opinion, that causes them to change what they demand for promotion from one month to the other: after the basho the reasonable announcements that are obvious after what has happened - and all still remember it. Before the next most people have forgotten what the contents were and only remember e.g. the yusho equivalent. I hope you don't think I believe they would actually promote Goeido, but their (YDC +NSK) inconsistent announcements in recent years projected onto Goeido's case (remember: he wasn't on an ozeki run and got promoted anyway), with the little exaggeration that always is part of my statements, leads to this (nightmare) scenario:

All 4 yokozuna and Takayasu start in Kyushu, Kisenosato and Kakuryu drop out in the first week and both retire, Goeido sweeps away all opponents from start to finish, the public cries for a new hero - they give them a new yokozuna.

Edited by Akinomaki

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2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

You really think one zensho yusho isn't reason enough? I''m still not convinced.

Let's put it this way: He still hasn't hit the 33-in-3 mark, even around that zensho record. Heck, up until that yusho the talk was that he's one of the worst-performing ozeki of the last few decades, and outside of that one tournament he really hasn't improved much on that perception at all in the last year. (Even Aki basho just gone was hardly all that impressive.) So, I just don't see anything that would cause them to think "this is a guy we should get behind for another promotion".

And now that Kisenosato's promotion has satisfied the long-standing desire for a new Japanese yokozuna, I think they won't have any major interest in promoting somebody just because they can. Maybe if we get that suspected big retirement wave and Goeido turns out to be Last Man Standing among the high-rankers, he might gain promotion almost by default, but other than that I think he'll have to earn it the regular way right now.

It's a far different situation than before the ozeki promotions for Kise and Goeido, or before Kise's promotion to yokozuna. In all three cases you had a guy who had a lengthy track record of near-[next rank] performances, where there was a reasonable expectation that he could in fact handle that next rank if promoted.

 

1 minute ago, Akinomaki said:

All 4 yokozuna and Takayasu start in Kyushu, Kisenosato and Kakuryu drop out in the first week and both retire, Goeido sweeps away all opponents from start to finish, the public cries for a new hero - they give them a new yokozuna.

I really don't think the Japanese sumo-watching public is as fickle as you think it is. No offense, but perhaps you're projecting your own outlook here? You're certainly above the average sumo fan in chasing after hype bandwagons.

Edited by Asashosakari

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4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

The notion of Goeido being put on tsunatori right now (whether officially or backdoor) is silly not because the directors and the YDC would never say one thing and then do another. We know they do that. It's silly because Goeido has neither given any reason for anyone to believe that he would be up to the task of holding the yokozuna rank [...]

Goeido would have to show consistent Ozeki performance first, and being in contention for the yusho like a yokozuna ought to be, as well as reach a minimum of 33 wins in 3 basho and a yusho. In no way does he compare to Kisenosato in all of these respects. Kisenosato's promotion was well earned and he proved it with the Hatsu and Haru yushos. Goeido has a very long way yet to go before he has proven that his zensho yusho was not a fluke. a one-time thing. The way he lost his comfortable lead isn't helping either.

Edited by orandashoho

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Between Futahaguro and Kisenosato, it was widely accepted that yokozuna promotion required 2 consecutive basho of either 14+ wins, a 13+ win playoff loss or a 12+ win yusho.

Apart from his increasingly fluky-looking zensho, Goueidou hasn't once achieved such a result. This basho was less than impressive, and the only other quasi-accolades he can boast of are a handful of non-threatening 12-3s, only 2 of which were for a jun-yusho from the top 16. He just hasn't got the qualifications to be taken seriously.

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So, I suppose Enho will go to Makushita, correct? Any predictions for where he'll rank?

And, has anyone heard anything about Ura? Injury status/surgery/ expectations? Sadly, I'll never be able to read kanji, too lazy, too old to be bothered. (the spoken language is tough enough)

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Looking at where comparably ranked 7-0 sandamne rikishi ended up, I imagine that Enho will be ranked around Ms15. That's a pretty big jump in opposition quality and I'd expect multiple losses next tournament. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the tougher opposition, and how much, if at all, he can add to his consecutive win streak.

Edited by Katooshu

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Since Nagoya 1960 (start of the 7-bout lower-division "era"), 8/24 non-tsukedashi rikishi who had their makushita debut at the top their of the division got their KK in said debut. 

That's one third which is honestly higher than I expected. Those are:

Chiyotaikai- eventual ozeki

Juumonji- eventual low maegashira regular

Wakakinryuu- never made juryo

Tochiouzan- 25 san'yaku basho

Tokushouryuu- low maegashira regular now on the way down, seemingly

Joukouryuu- reached san'yaku one time through excellent banzuke luck- M7w 10-5 ---> K1e. 14 makuuchi basho mostly at lower maegashira without once returning to the top 16.

Hamaguchi/Shimanoumi- one basho in juryo, will have a good chance to get another with a KK next basho

Takemasa- hit The Wall at Ms8 in July, went 2-5 at Ms20 in September. Too early to tell 

Verdict: your mileage may vary, even if you succeed. Do note that Joukouryuu holds the record that Enhou is currently hyped to break. Went 3-4 at Ms9 as an ailing (in recovery?) 29-year-old.

Query

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Rounding up the final results of the former sekitori:

new KK: Kitataiki, Satoyama, Dewahayate, Takaryu, Tenkaiho

new MK: Akiseyama, Jokoryu, Tokushinho, Keitenkai, Masunoyama

Split right down the middle in the final set of matches.
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out
4-3 Ms1e Takagenji Takanohana 20 2
4-3 Ms1w Kitataiki Yamahibiki 34 1
5-2 Ms2e Tobizaru Oitekaze 25 1
2-5 Ms2w Tochihiryu Kasugano 30 16
3-4 Ms4w Akiseyama Kise 32 8
5-2 Ms5e Daishoho Oitekaze 23 5
5-2 Ms5w Shimanoumi Kise 28 7
 
kyujo (i) Ms6e Rikishin Tatsunami 21 1
2-5 Ms6w Oiwato Hakkaku 36 23
4-3 Ms7e Satoyama Onoe 36 1
4-3 Ms8w Asabenkei Takasago 28 6
3-4 Ms9e Jokoryu Kise 29 8
2-5 Ms10e Fujiazuma Tamanoi 30 3
4-3 Ms11e Dewahayate Dewanoumi 28 7
5-2 Ms11w Asahisho Tomozuna 28 2
1-6 Ms12w Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 35 21
4-3 Ms13w Takaryu Kise 25 13
2-5 Ms15e Amuru Onomatsu 34 4
 
3-4 Ms17e Tokushinho Kise 33 11
4-3 Ms17w Toyonoshima Tokitsukaze 34 6
3-4 Ms18e Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 26 25
1-2-4 Ms19w Higonojo Kise 32 20
4-3 Ms21w Tenkaiho Onoe 32 8
3-4 Ms23w Keitenkai Onomatsu 27 30
1-4-2 Ms26e Sotairyu Tokitsukaze 35 15
 
kyujo Ms41w Shotenro Fujishima 35 9
3-4 (i) Ms43e Wakanoshima Shibatayama 32 4
3-4 Ms45w Nionoumi Yamahibiki 30 25
7-0 Y Ms49w Kagamio Kagamiyama 29 8
5-2 Ms50w Sakigake Shibatayama 31 16
2-5 Ms54w Kotomisen Sadogatake 34 23
 
1-2-4 Sd3e Dairaido Takadagawa 37 66
5-2 Sd17e Hitenryu Tatsunami 33 36
5-2 Sd25e Kaonishiki Azumazeki 39 36
2-5 Sd34e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 40 18
3-4 Sd48e Masakaze Oguruma 34 29
3-4 Sd49e Masunoyama Chiganoura 26 15
intai Sd70w Dewaotori Dewanoumi 31 64


As mentioned elsewhere, Wakanoshima and Rikishin have joined Dewaotori in retiring. Takagenji is headed back to juryo, while Kitaharima and Kizenryu will once again be ex-sekitori next time.

Edited by Asashosakari
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An attempt at juryo and makushita-joi+:

Homarefuji (J6w 10-5 D)  J1   Ishiura (M10e 3-12)
Kyokushuho (J6e 9-6)     J2   Ryuden (J5e 8-7)
Meisei (J8w 9-6)         J3   Abi (J11w 10-5 Y)
Azumaryu (J2w 6-9)       J4   Tokushoryu (M15e 4-11)
Yutakayama (M15w 4-11)   J5   Sadanoumi (M12w 2-8-5)
Kyokutaisei (J4e 6-9)    J6   Sokokurai (J1e 4-11)
Amakaze (J9e 8-7)        J7   Kotoeko (J9w 8-7)
Seiro (J12w 9-6)         J8   Terutsuyoshi (J13e 9-6)
Tsurugisho (J8e 7-8)     J9   Chiyonoo (J11e 8-7)
Hidenoumi (J7e 6-9)      J10  Yamaguchi (J5w 5-10)
Toyohibiki (J4w 4-11)    J11  Chiyootori (J10w 7-8)
Daiseido (J14e 8-7)      J12  Gagamaru (J7w 5-10)
Osunaarashi (J10e 6-9)   J13  Masunosho (Ms3e 6-1)
Takagenji (Ms1e 4-3)     J14  Yago (J13w 7-8)
 

Kitataiki (Ms1w 4-3)        Ms1   Tobizaru (Ms2e 5-2)
Daishoho (Ms5e 5-2)         Ms2   Shimanoumi (Ms5w 5-2)
Kitaharima (J12e 5-10)      Ms3   Kizenryu (J14w 6-6-3)
Mitoryu (Ms14e 6-1)         Ms4   Satoyama (Ms7e 4-3)
Akua (Ms10w 5-2)            Ms5   Kagamio (Ms49w 7-0 Y)
Asahisho (Ms11w 5-2)        Ms6   Asabenkei (Ms8w 4-3)
Tochimaru (Ms20e 6-1)       Ms7   Hokaho (Ms13e 5-2)
Kizaki (Ms3w 3-4)           Ms8   Dewahayate (Ms11e 4-3)
Kotodaigo (Ms4e 3-4)        Ms9   Akiseyama (Ms4w 3-4)
Takaryu (Ms13w 4-3)         Ms10  Wakamotoharu (Ms18w 5-2)
Takayoshitoshi (Ms15w 4-3)  Ms11  Wakatakakage (Ms16e 4-3)
Gokushindo (Ms31w 6-1)      Ms12  Tochihiryu (Ms2w 2-5)
Tamaki (Ms23e 5-2)          Ms13  Toyonoshima (Ms17w 4-3)
Enho (Sd18w 7-0 Y)          Ms14  Hakuyozan (Ms8e 3-4)
Akinohana (Ms25e 5-2)       Ms15  Jokoryu (Ms9e 3-4)
Terao (Ms19e 4-3)           Ms16  Irodori (Ms39w 6-1)
Tsurubayashi (Ms27e 5-2)    Ms17  Tenkaiho (Ms21w 4-3)
Oiwato (Ms6w 2-5)           Ms18  Fukugoriki (Ms12e 3-4)
Shiba (Ms29e 5-2)           Ms19  Shonannoumi (Ms44w 6-1)
 

Edited by Asashosakari
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My Juryo looks like this:

Homarefuji (J6w 10-5 D)  J1   Ishiura (M10e 3-12)
Kyokushuho (J6e 9-6)     J2   Ryuden (J5e 8-7)
Meisei (J8w 9-6)         J3   Tokushoryu (M15e 4-11)
Yutakayama (M15w 4-11)   J4   Sadanoumi (M12w 2-8-5)
Abi (J11w 10-5 Y)        J5   Azumaryu (J2w 6-9)
Amakaze (J9e 8-7)        J6   Kotoeko (J9w 8-7)
Kyokutaisei (J4e 6-9)    J7   Sokokurai (J1e 4-11)
Seiro (J12w 9-6)         J8   Terutsuyoshi (J13e 9-6)
Chiyonoo (J11e 8-7)      J9   Tsurugisho (J8e 7-8)
Hidenoumi (J7e 6-9)      J10  Yamaguchi (J5w 5-10)
Toyohibiki (J4w 4-11)    J11  Chiyootori (J10w 7-8)
Daiseido (J14e 8-7)      J12  Gagamaru (J7w 5-10)
Osunaarashi (J10e 6-9)   J13  Takanosho (Ms3e 6-1)
Yago (J13w 7-8)          J14  Takagenji (Ms1e 4-3)

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35 minutes ago, rhyen said:

any translators?

I think someone else already translated it but I'm not sure.

Nishonoseki-oyakata says that "Even though he had two bouts to get the yusho, he couldn't seal the deal. With 12 honwari (non-playoff) wins he would have been considered.[...] Are you saying that he's being denied the tsunatori? That's right. He left a bad impression (inshou ga warui). After all, it's an 11-win record. Especially when you consider that three yokozuna kyujoed out, [he's better off concentrating on his Bench Sumo tsuna run at this point]". His words not mine.

He added, "It's a yusho-doten which is supposedly/technically* a yusho-equivalent, but no matter what he does in Kyushu he won't get the rope."

 

* He used the phrase 形の上では, which can mean either supposedly or technically. Both options make sense here. The point is that it's not a proper yusho-equivalent.

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Of the former maegashira, I think only Kitataiki has any chance of ever returning to the sekitori at this point.  It's a shame he's unlikely to make it after this tournament.  I've been hopeful for Toyonoshima, but it doesn't seem like he is going to make a comeback.  Plenty of actual and potential returnees among former-Juryo rikishi.

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On 9/28/2017 at 03:43, Asashosakari said:

An attempt at juryo and makushita-joi+:

Homarefuji (J6w 10-5 D)  J1   Ishiura (M10e 3-12)
Kyokushuho (J6e 9-6)     J2   Ryuden (J5e 8-7)
Meisei (J8w 9-6)         J3   Abi (J11w 10-5 Y)
Azumaryu (J2w 6-9)       J4   Tokushoryu (M15e 4-11)
Yutakayama (M15w 4-11)   J5   Sadanoumi (M12w 2-8-5)
Kyokutaisei (J4e 6-9)    J6   Sokokurai (J1e 4-11)
Amakaze (J9e 8-7)        J7   Kotoeko (J9w 8-7)
Seiro (J12w 9-6)         J8   Terutsuyoshi (J13e 9-6)
Tsurugisho (J8e 7-8)     J9   Chiyonoo (J11e 8-7)
Hidenoumi (J7e 6-9)      J10  Yamaguchi (J5w 5-10)
Toyohibiki (J4w 4-11)    J11  Chiyootori (J10w 7-8)
Daiseido (J14e 8-7)      J12  Gagamaru (J7w 5-10)
Osunaarashi (J10e 6-9)   J13  Masunosho (Ms3e 6-1)
Takagenji (Ms1e 4-3)     J14  Yago (J13w 7-8)
 

Kitataiki (Ms1w 4-3)        Ms1   Tobizaru (Ms2e 5-2)
Daishoho (Ms5e 5-2)         Ms2   Shimanoumi (Ms5w 5-2)
Kitaharima (J12e 5-10)      Ms3   Kizenryu (J14w 6-6-3)
 

My picks are very similar up to this point.  I opted for Kyokushuho over Ishiura, and the Daiseido-Osunaarashi-Masunosho combo is different.  I haven't figured out the scheme for promotions to Juryo yet.  Mine have diverged widely from actual so far.

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On 9/30/2017 at 00:42, Ack! said:

Of the former maegashira, I think only Kitataiki has any chance of ever returning to the sekitori at this point.  It's a shame he's unlikely to make it after this tournament.  I've been hopeful for Toyonoshima, but it doesn't seem like he is going to make a comeback.  Plenty of actual and potential returnees among former-Juryo rikishi.

I would think Kagamio has a decent chance, in addition Satoyama.

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On 10/5/2017 at 15:38, Taigiin khuu said:

I would think Kagamio has a decent chance, in addition Satoyama.

Kagamio certainly had a breakout performance, but he hasn't had a KK above Ms35 since he fell out of Makuuchi 2 years ago.  If he should KK next tournament, I may have to retract my statement, but I'd be shocked.  Satoyama is 36 and just managed just a 4-3 KK at Ms7 to stop a 3 basho MK slide.  Before that he had 2 KKs in lower juryo halting a 4 basho MK slide.  Sounds like he is on the decline.  Anything could happen, but again I'd be shocked.

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