Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2017

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10 hours ago, Katooshu said:
9 hours ago, dingo said:

I would like that to be clearer as well. 

Are those official or just predictions?

Only my predictions. Sorry for the confusion.

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Asashosakari; Psst. We're waiting patiently. Thank you.

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Day 15 (results, text-only results):

    14-1  Hakuho        Y1   Harumafuji   11-4
    2-4-9 Kisenosato    Y2   Kakuryu      2-2-11
    1-5-9 Terunofuji    O1   Goeido        7-8
     9-6  Takayasu      O2

Aoiyama fulfilled the responsibilities placed on him as the quasi-yusho pursuer, beat Yoshikaze decisively and thus prolonged the yusho race to the final bout of the tournament. However, Hakuho was having none of that and he prevailed over fellow yokozuna Harumafuji after a protracted battle to secure his 39th championship with a record of 14-1. Aoiyama can be proud of what he has achieved over the last fortnight and finishes as sole runner-up at 13-2 and with the kanto-sho.

The other two soroibumi bouts were also of significant interest, as Takayasu demonstrated that Kisenosato isn't the only Tagonoura boy who's ready to come to play on Day 15 against a 7-7 opponent, and he sent Goeido to the 6th kadoban-clinching record of his ozeki career. Tamawashi also found himself in a fierce assault on his 7-7 record and he, too, fell to makekoshi at the hands of Tochiozan, ending Tamawashi's year-long KK streak. No sansho for Tochiozan though despite scoring 12 wins. 

(Incidentally, Kotoshogiku ended up losing his ozeki rank exactly 12 months after his yusho - will Goeido suffer the same fate in Aki basho?)

Tamawashi's defeat ought to have settled the next two sekiwake spots in favour of Mitakeumi and Yoshikaze, both of whom will be sliding up exactly one spot for the second straight tournament. In addition it's a shukun-sho for Mitakeumi largely courtesy of his victory over yusho winner Hakuho.

The komusubi ranks are a lot more confusing, largely due to Tochinoshin dropping his senshuraku bout against Chiyotairyu. There are enough strong candidates that it would be justifiable to dump Tamawashi right down to the M ranks, but they haven't done that in such a long time (despite many similar occasions) that it's hard to see them starting now. So, assuming there's only one slot up for grabs Tochinoshin just might have to yield to stablemate Tochiozan after all, who went 3 wins better at just 3 ranks below. Even with the relative difference in schedule strength that's hard to overlook. So, my guess is Tamawashi on the East side and Tochiozan on the West, with Tochinoshin and Aoiyama holding the M1 positions. (Tough luck for Kotoshogiku as well, who should be finding himself as low as M2w which is rarely seen for a 7-8 komusubi's next appearance.)

(?)  7-8  Tamawashi     S    Mitakeumi     9-6
     9-6  Yoshikaze     K    Kotoshogiku   7-8  (x)

                        M1
(?)  9-6  Tochinoshin   M2   Hokutofuji    8-7
                        M3
                        M4
                        M5   Tochiozan    12-3  (?)
                        M6   Onosho       10-5
                        M7
    13-2  Aoiyama       M8


Things aren't much clearer at the next cut line. Yutakayama ended up securing the third available promotion spot with his 11th win, joining Kaisei and Asanoyama on the way up. (By the way, the sports papers are treating Asanoyama's makuuchi debut as pretty much a done deal.)

After that it gets significantly more murky. While Azumaryu fell out of contention with a loss, both J4's Myogiryu and Aminishiki improved to 10-5. Up in makuuchi the potential demotion playoff was won by Nishikigi who can celebrate a last-minute kachikoshi, while Tokushoryu is now very much on the edge of the cliff, and would have to yield his spot to Myogiryu if the committee is interested in making that exchange. On the other hand, the fact that Myogiryu and Aminishiki are sporting the same record just might give them enough of an excuse to put them both at J1 and call it "fair"...

I've added the nominal next candidate for demotion to the table, which is Okinoumi, but exchanging him (or even M3w 2-3-10 Endo) for Aminishiki strikes me as extremely unlikely to happen.

(?)  4-11 Tokushoryu    M9   Okinoumi      5-10 (??)
                        M10
                        M11
                        M12
                        M13  Sokokurai     6-9  (x)
                        M14  Kotoyuki      4-11 (x)
(o)  8-7  Nishikigi     M15
(x)  3-12 Gagamaru      M16  ---

(o) 10-5  Kaisei        J1
                        J2
(x)  8-7  Azumaryu      J3
(?) 10-5  Myogiryu      J4   Aminishiki   10-5  (??)
(o) 11-4  Yutakayama    J5   Asanoyama    11-4  (o)


And finally the situation in juryo, which thankfully is a lot more clear-cut. Seiro ended up saving himself after all, against a 7-7 opponent no less, so it's Kitataiki who will be the 4th man down - for his part he left no doubt about it by falling to 5-10 against Toyohibiki, which would have seen him demoted even if Seiro had lost. Congrats to the sekitori newcomers Daiseido and Yago (new shikona coming?) as well as the returnees Kitaharima and Kizenryu. Both of them will be joining an exalted club of 7-time promotees.

(Also from the weird synchronicity realm: Veterans Kitataiki and Satoyama are both dropping to makushita exactly 8 basho after their most recent appearance in the top division, which was in Haru 2016.)

The last KK/MK decision in the lower divisions was settled in favour of youngster Masunosho, further prolonging Jokoryu's quest to return to the paid ranks. And the very last makushita bout saw Kitaharima improve to 6-1 at Tochihiryu's expense. Kitaharima has never gone 10-5 or better in four years as a sekitori, so this is his first record with 5 more wins than losses since his previous 6-1 score, which came all the way back in Kyushu 2009.

                        J6   Seiro         4-11 (o)
                        ...
(x)  5-10 Kitataiki     J12
(x)  3-12 Satoyama      J13  Rikishin      4-11 (x)
                        J14  Tobizaru      6-9  (x)

(o)  4-3  Kizenryu      Ms1
(o)  6-1  Kitaharima    Ms2
(o)  5-2  Daiseido      Ms3
                        Ms4  Jokoryu       3-4  (x)
     4-3  Masunosho     Ms5  Takagenji     5-2
                        Ms6  Tochihiryu    5-2
                        ...
(o)  7-0  Yago          Ms11

To round things out: The jonidan yusho went to Enho, beating Masunoyama with his trademark slippery eel technique to set up the winning shitatenage, and the juryo yusho turned into a playoff as well after Daiamami caught up with leader Asanoyama at 11-4 and Yutakayama joined in. (Hey, just like in their not-so-long-ago college days probably, except for that weird tomoe-sen thing...) Daiamami proceeded to beat both co-contenders to secure the yusho.

Whew, I think that does it for Nagoya basho. See you around in September!

Edited by Asashosakari
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Thank you. Two questions. What is the possibility, if any, of there being a third (or fourth) Komusubi? Is it certain that J5w Asanoyama (11-4) will leap frog J4e Myogiryu (10-5)?

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24 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

(Incidentally, Kotoshogiku ended up losing his ozeki rank exactly 12 months after his yusho - will Goeido suffer the same fate in Aki basho?)

Were that to happen, we wouldn't learn about it until September, yes? I don't recall them holding a press conference about an Ozeki demotion before, but then again maybe they do and I've forgotten.

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4 hours ago, Fukurou said:

Were that to happen, we wouldn't learn about it until September, yes? I don't recall them holding a press conference about an Ozeki demotion before, but then again maybe they do and I've forgotten.

I believe he means demotion as a result of the Aki basho rather than before.

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Whilst it was fairly obvious to me that if Goeido goes MK at Aki he will cease to be an ozeki, I realised that even though it happened quite recently with Kotoshogiku I still don't know when the demotion takes effect. Do they become sekiwake immediately after the basho ends, or do they carry on being ozeki until the next banzuke is published?

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the weird thing is  few days before the basho I said aoiyama would win the yusho.

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22 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Thank you. Two questions. What is the possibility, if any, of there being a third (or fourth) Komusubi? Is it certain that J5w Asanoyama (11-4) will leap frog J4e Myogiryu (10-5)?

None of the promotion candidates are strong enough to force another sanyaku slot.  We've seen recently that a 9-6 M1w is not good enough, so I can't imagine a 9-6 M2e from the same rikishi to be good enough either.  And relatively recently, we had Kokkai left as a maegashira in the exact same situation Tochiozan is in, for Haru 2008.  In fact, there hasn't been a 3rd Komusubi since Takatoriki won the Yusho from the bottom of the division, and given Kyokutenho's banzuke fate after his Yusho, they wouldn't do it again.  The lack of such promotions suggest they are very loathe to do so, preferring to just leave out the strong-finishing non-joi maegashira.

I'm really of two minds regarding who will get the Komusubi spot.  They have denied a KK joi maegashira an open spot somewhat recently, but that was an 8-7 M2w, so not normally "enough" for promotion.  On the other hand, the lower-ranked maegashira that got the spot was just straddling the line for having "enough".  There's this basho, but all that says is that 8-7 M1e is better than 11-4 M5w, and that's not exactly the same thing we have here, plus a KK M1e is generally going to be first in line since he "needs" to be promoted, and so we're left really saying that 10-5 M3e is better than 11-4 M5w, which is a slight bit off from the numbers, but the former had a much harder schedule.  Here, Tochiozan is a win better, and Tochinoshin in a worse rank/record spot, so it's nothing that's conclusive.  I personally would greatly prefer the promoting the guy who faced all the top-rankers regardless of the win difference, but given the first of the basho linked this paragraph, they really don't seem to have the same thought process. 

 

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"so we're left really saying that 10-5 M3e is better than 11-4 M5w, which is a slight bit off from the numbers"

is that what you meant, as it's really not off from the numbers.

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1 hour ago, lackmaker said:

"so we're left really saying that 10-5 M3e is better than 11-4 M5w, which is a slight bit off from the numbers"

is that what you meant, as it's really not off from the numbers.

You're right, I blundered there somehow.

Edit; Just making sure everyone was paying attention!  That's the excuse, right?

Edited by Gurowake

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3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

You're right, I blundered there somehow.

Edit; Just making sure everyone was paying attention!  That's the excuse, right?

Don't worry, it's probably just a touch of promotion/demotion calculation fever (pdcf), very common post basho. See Dr. Asashosakari for ways of coping.

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A guess of juryo and makushita-joi plus a few more ranks. My track record of success has been pretty woeful of late.

Myogiryu (J4e 10-5)      J1   Aminishiki (J4w 10-5)
Sokokurai (M13w 6-9)     J2   Azumaryu (J3e 8-7)
Daiamami (J8e 11-4 Y)    J3   Kotoyuki (M14w 4-11)
Kyokutaisei (J6e 8-7)    J4   Toyohibiki (J2e 6-9)
Ryuden (J8w 9-6)         J5   Yamaguchi (J9e 9-6)
Kyokushuho (J1w 5-10)    J6   Homarefuji (J10w 9-6)
Hidenoumi (J2w 5-10)     J7   Gagamaru (M16e 3-12)
Meisei (J11w 9-6)        J8   Tsurugisho (J9w 8-7)
Amakaze (J7e 7-8)        J9   Kotoeko (J7w 7-8)
Osunaarashi (J11e 8-7)   J10  Chiyoo (J3w 4-11)
Chiyootori (J10e 7-8)    J11  Kitaharima (Ms2e 6-1)
Yago (Ms11e 7-0 Y)       J12  Abi (J14e 8-7)
Terutsuyoshi (J12w 7-8)  J13  Seiro (J6w 4-11)
Daiseido (Ms3e 5-2)      J14  Kizenryu (Ms1e 4-3)

Takagenji (Ms5w 5-2)     Ms1  Kitataiki (J12e 5-10)
Tobizaru (J14w 6-9)      Ms2  Tochihiryu (Ms6w 5-2)
Masunosho (Ms5e 4-3)     Ms3  Kizaki (Ms7e 5-2)
Kotodaigo (Ms13w 6-1)    Ms4  Rikishin (J13w 4-11)
Akiseyama (Ms9e 5-2)     Ms5  Satoyama (J13e 3-12)
Daishoho (Ms7w 4-3)      Ms6  Shimanoumi (Ms2w 3-4)
Oiwato (Ms3w 3-4)        Ms7  Hakuyozan (Ms4e 3-4)
Jokoryu (Ms4w 3-4)       Ms8  Chiyosakae (Ms21w 6-1)
Asabenkei (Ms10w 4-3)    Ms9  Asahisho (Ms1w 2-2-3)
Nogami (Ms24w 6-1)       Ms10 Fujiazuma (Ms12e 4-3)
Akua (Ms12w 4-3)         Ms11 Dewahayate (Ms13e 4-3)
Sagatsukasa (Ms20e 5-2)  Ms12 Fukugoriki (Sd11e 7-0 Y)
Hokaho (Ms18e 4-3)       Ms13 Takaryu (Ms18w 4-3)
Mitoryu (Ms23w 5-2)      Ms14 Kiribayama (Ms10e 3-4)
Amuru (Ms20w 4-3)        Ms15 Takayoshitoshi (Ms21e 4-3)
Tokushinho (Ms6e 2-5)    Ms16 Wakatakakage (Ms38w 6-1)
Murata (Ms27e 5-2)       Ms17 Chiyoarashi (Ms23e 4-3)
Toyonoshima (Ms28e 5-2)  Ms18 Takemasa (Ms8w 2-5)
Wakamotoharu (Ms14e 3-4) Ms19 Kairyu (Ms9w 2-5)
Higonojo (Ms15e 3-4)     Ms20 Terao (Ms26w 4-3)
Tochimaru (Ms32e 5-2)    Ms21 Keitenkai (Ms16w 3-4)
Hamayutaka (Ms17e 3-4)   Ms22 Sotairyu (Ms17w 3-4)

Dunno about my actual Myogiryu/Tokushoryu solution yet, so that's just a placeholder. I wish I could put both Kitaharima and Yago higher, but there's no room to do so and I don't think they'll overdemote people just to make space. (Actually, Yago might end up behind Abi, now that I look at it again.) Makushita is very crowded down to Ms11 and then has a pretty large gap so the following promotions are all on the generous side.

Toyonoshima could really use a 6-1 if he doesn't want to spend the next 12 months slowly working his way up, but his sumo in Nagoya (even with 5 wins) didn't leave me with much hope that he's got a juryo return in him anyway.

Recent SdTd starters Murata and Wakatakakage back to the same area of the rankings, though it remains to be seen if they'll actually meet again next basho.

Edited by Asashosakari
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On 7/23/2017 at 15:09, Asashosakari said:

The final records of the former sekitori:

new KK: Daishoho, Fujiazuma, Takaryu, Amuru, Chiyoarashi, Dairaido

new MK: Shimanoumi, Jokoryu, Higonojo, Sotairyu, Nionoumi

 4-3  Ms1e  Kizenryu (Kise, 32, 3)
2-2-3 Ms1w  Asahisho (Tomozuna, 28, 1)
 6-1  Ms2e  Kitaharima (Yamahibiki, 30, 2)
 3-4  Ms2w  Shimanoumi (Kise, 28, 6)
 3-4  Ms3w  Oiwato (Hakkaku, 36, 22)
 3-4  Ms4w  Jokoryu (Kise, 28, 7)
 5-2  Ms5w  Takagenji (Takanohana, 20, 1)

 2-5  Ms6e  Tokushinho (Kise, 33, 10)
 5-2  Ms6w  Tochihiryu (Kasugano, 30, 15)
 4-3  Ms7w  Daishoho (Oitekaze, 22, 4)
 5-2  Ms9e  Akiseyama (Kise, 32, 7)
 4-3  Ms10w Asabenkei (Takasago, 28, 5)
 4-3  Ms12e Fujiazuma (Tamanoi, 30, 2)
 4-3  Ms13e Dewahayate (Dewanoumi, 28, 6)
 3-4  Ms15e Higonojo (Kise, 32, 19)

 3-4  Ms16w Keitenkai (Onomatsu, 27, 29)
 3-4  Ms17w Sotairyu (Tokitsukaze, 34, 14)
 4-3  Ms18w Takaryu (Kise, 25, 12)
 1-6  Ms19w Wakanoshima (Shibatayama, 32, 3)
 5-2  Ms20e Sagatsukasa (Irumagawa, 35, 20)
 4-3  Ms20w Amuru (Onomatsu, 33, 3)
 4-3  Ms23e Chiyoarashi (Kokonoe, 26, 24)
 5-2  Ms28e Toyonoshima (Tokitsukaze, 34, 5)
 4-3  Ms29w Tenkaiho (Onoe, 32, 7)
 3-4  Ms32w Nionoumi (Yamahibiki, 30, 24)
 2-5  Ms34e Sakigake (Shibatayama, 31, 15)
 2-5  Ms38e Kotomisen (Sadogatake, 34, 22)
 3-4  Ms39w Kagamio (Kagamiyama, 29, 7)
 2-5  Ms51w Hitenryu (Tatsunami, 33, 35)
 2-5  Ms57e Kaonishiki (Azumazeki, 38, 35)
 5-2  Ms59w Shotenro (Fujishima, 35, 8)

kyujo Sd10w Dewaotori (Dewanoumi, 31, 64)
 4-3  Sd13w Dairaido (Takadagawa, 37, 65)
 3-4  Sd14e Yoshiazuma (Tamanoi, 40, 17)
 2-5  Sd17w Masakaze (Oguruma, 34, 28)

 7-0  Jd49e Masunoyama (Chiganoura, 26, 14)
 

Unfortunately, most of the former maegashira on this list are just hangers on -- not that it's a bad thing.  Jokoryu fell short in his bid for a return going MK at 3-4, and will be out of the promotion zone for the next basho.  Fujiazuma, Amuru and Toyonoshima notably arrested their slide down the banzuke.  Will they be able to KK at a  higher rank next basho for a return bid?  Akiseyama will get a shot at a return to the sekitori -- perhaps his last believable attempt after 7 tourneys in Makushita?  I didn't have any hope for Oiwato, who was a late-career high at Ms3, but I was surprised at his resurgence from an 0-3 start to finish 3-4.

Also worthy of note, former sekitori Tochihiryu will be in the promotion zone for Aki 17 after a 2-1/2 year absence from the paid ranks!

Edited by Ack!
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