BASHO TALK -- Natsu 2017 -- SPOILERS

[Morty 1,480]

On Kisenosato.

He finally looks like he has beaten his mental demons. The rope has given him the final confidence to face any obstacle. He has always been hugely talented, but just two years ago he would not have won today, or against Chiyoshoma a couple of days ago. And he definitely wouldn't have beaten Teronofuij twice in one day while carrying that injury if it had been two years ago. He was the Choker who always failed on the big occasions. But not anymore. Every opponent this basho as gone to his weak left side and yet he has mostly prevailed. Against Mitakeumi today he drove forwards and couldn't keep going because he had no power on that left side, and looked like he was in pain too. But he waited it out and prevailed despite the pain. I always thought that, if he could get to Yokozuna he would do a good job of it, and now he is there, he is proving that point. Really impressive showing from a guy carrying that injury. 

[d_golem 213]

4 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Gotta wonder man, is this the end of the Geek?

Not wondering here, definitely the end of the Geek.

[d_golem 213]

Speakinh of Ozeki promotion, Tamawashi is no less impressive than Takayasu. How many wins does he have to get this basho to get promoted?

edit : Looked up sumodb and it seems he needs to win all his remaining matches to reach 30 wins in 3 bashos mark...

Edited May 20, 2017 by d_golem

[Dwale 419]

Kisenosato is having a beautiful struggle this basho, and if I had to sum it up in one word, it would be "inspiring." Great match against a talented and promising rikishi in Mitakeumi. Kisenosato deserves that rope as much as anyone who ever wore it.

[Benevolance 2,478]

Yep -- if Geeku hasn't started working on his retirement plan, he'd better get busy.

I heard he's planning to do the Tour de France. 

[lackmaker 432]

[Rocks 1,807]

4 hours ago, Morty said:

Every opponent this basho as gone to his weak left side and yet he has mostly prevailed.

They really should put out a body pillow that looks like Kise's left arm because everybody in makuuchi wants to hug it.

[RabidJohn 1,665]

4 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Yoshikaze missed out on being the first rikishi since 1984 to defeat three yokozuna in one basho.

http://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/1826803.html

I can't read the Japanese article, but I'm sure I remember Kotoshogiku defeating 3 in his yusho. Should that be komusubi or something, rather than just "rikishi"?

---

I must echo Morty's comments above. Kisenosato has probably impressed me more this time than he did in his two yusho. I was rooting for Mitakeumi today, thinking this was his best chance - and, as good as he is at the moment, he just could not do it! I don't think Kisenosato stands much chance against the remaining Y/O, but that doesn't matter because he's really showing everyone what he's made of - and it appears to be 100% yokozuna material.

I've been wondering how awestruck Daieisho must have felt when Hakuho yorikiri-ed him with such apparent ease.

[Rocks 1,807]

6 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I must echo Morty's comments above.

I do too but I'd point out one thing. Kise is still injured but he also has an advantage too, he knows what his opponent is going to do. Being predictable in your approach is as bad as almost any injury unless  you are better than anyone else in doing that predictable thing. If that predictable thing is outside your usual process it's even worse.  It would be interesting to see Kise face Takakeisho at this point. Takakeisho basically has the best pull in makuuchi at this point. These guys can't deal with it. I'd like to see what he'd do with Kise's arm. 

[Asashosakari 18,786]

46 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I can't read the Japanese article, but I'm sure I remember Kotoshogiku defeating 3 in his yusho. Should that be komusubi or something, rather than just "rikishi"?

Sekiwake and below.

[Katooshu 3,135]

Chiyoshoma has some really nice skills, but he's just too easy for the top guys to push around. Some extra kilos wouldn't hurt!

[Gurowake 3,923]

In Juryo there are after Day 7 one each 1-6 & 6-1, two each 2-5 & 5-2, and the other 22 are either 3-4 or 4-3.

[Rocks 1,807]

7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

In Juryo there are after Day 7 one each 1-6 & 6-1, two each 2-5 & 5-2, and the other 22 are either 3-4 or 4-3.

That's what you call parity but I've never have understood what parrots have to do with it.

[Atenzan 1,074]

7 hours ago, d_golem said:

Speakinh of Ozeki promotion, Tamawashi is no less impressive than Takayasu. How many wins does he have to get this basho to get promoted?

edit : Looked up sumodb and it seems he needs to win all his remaining matches to reach 30 wins in 3 bashos mark...

The guideline is 33 in 3, not 30. 32 in 3 might get you there, 33 should, and 34 will unless you're Miyabiyama. 

[Amamaniac 2,078]

7 hours ago, d_golem said:

Not wondering here, definitely the end of the Geek.

If by "the end" you mean the end of his being in the Joi ranks, then there is no question.  I expected him to retire as soon as he lost the chance to regain his Ozeki status, but he didn't retire.  His shisho has a big say in when he can retire.  If the decision is made to fight on, the question will be: how many tournaments will it take for him to drop out of the Top Division (assuming he doesn't regain his mojo)?

[Sakura 1,472]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

In Juryo there are after Day 7 one each 1-6 & 6-1, two each 2-5 & 5-2, and the other 22 are either 3-4 or 4-3.

All hail the normal distribution.

[Gurowake 3,923]

15 minutes ago, Sakura said:

All hail the normal distribution.

Well, the binomial distribution with p = .5 would actually favor far more 5-2 and 2-5s:

       Chance        *28
7    0.0078125    0.21875
6    0.0546875    1.53125
5    0.1640625    4.59375
4    0.2734375    7.65625
3    0.2734375    7.65625
2    0.1640625    4.59375
1    0.0546875    1.53125
0    0.0078125    0.21875

So they are actually far more bunched up then they would be on average, keeping in mind that any actual differences in skill between them would tend to produce more extreme records.

[Atenzan 1,074]

5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Well, the binomial distribution with p = .5 would actually favor far more 5-2 and 2-5s:

       Chance        *28
7    0.0078125    0.21875
6    0.0546875    1.53125
5    0.1640625    4.59375
4    0.2734375    7.65625
3    0.2734375    7.65625
2    0.1640625    4.59375
1    0.0546875    1.53125
0    0.0078125    0.21875

So they are actually far more bunched up then they would be on average, keeping in mind that any actual differences in skill between them would tend to produce more extreme records.

Yep, took the words out of my mouth. I was about to say makuuchi has gone binomial, 13 guys are 5-2. (obviously not following the average distribution to a tee but my point is that it's straying from the normal curve) 

Edited May 20, 2017 by McBugger

[Dwale 419]

You know, Ishiura v. Tochinoshin is a bad match...for Ishiura. He's lucky he didn't end up with his head stuck into the dohyo like a lawn dart. Of course, considering the pair it takes for someone his size to even show up, I'm surprised he can get his mawashi on. You can't say he's not brave.

Ura getting a win, heck yeah. Having some ambivalence about his success, because while I'm excited to see what he can do against the elites, I'm also dreading it. I wonder if he's gonna pass Chiyoshoma on the way up the banzuke and get told to run while he still can. XP

 

[Adil 232]

29 minutes ago, Sakura said:

All hail the normal distribution.

We'll have to run a Shapiro–Wilk test to make sure the results really are normally distributed .

[Asashosakari 18,786]

54 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

If by "the end" you mean the end of his being in the Joi ranks, then there is no question.  I expected him to retire as soon as he lost the chance to regain his Ozeki status, but he didn't retire.  His shisho has a big say in when he can retire.

You don't actually believe that shisho force rikishi to fight on rather than intai, do you?

[Yubinhaad 11,546]

Endo's victory over Kisenosato the other day made him the 4th rikishi to win the maiden kinboshi from two Yokozuna, having previously done the same to Kakuryu. He follows Masuiyama 1 (defeated Haguroyama and Maedayama), Kairyuyama (Taiho and Kashiwado, in the same basho) and Akinoshima (Asahifuji and Musashimaru).

As for Kisenosato, he was the 9th Yokozuna to reach double-digit wins against Maegashira before giving up his first kinboshi. The record is held by Wajima, who won his first 29 Maegashira bouts (interrupted after 21 by a fusenpai).
 

1) Wajima		29
2) Hokutoumi		17
3) Takanohana		16
4) Futabayama		14
=) Kitanofuji		14
=) Hakuho		14
7) Terukuni		13
8) Chiyonoyama		10
=) Kisenosato		10
10) Takanosato		9
=) Asahifuji		9

 

[Frakazu 22]

10 hours ago, word20 said:

it is time for Kotoshogiku to retire

I agree too.

It seems that Kotoshôgiku still needs time to process the fact that he is not an ozeki. A year ago, he thought he could reach the next rank or, in the worst case, stay as ôzeki until 37 or 38. The ideal moment to retire was before losing the rank of ôzeki. But Kotoshôgiku thought he could get the kachi-koshi, then thought he could get 10 victories as a sekiwake. Now he thinks he could win 33 victories, or that he could stay in san-yaku.  Kotoshôgiku still does not realize that his best time has passed and that young sekitori have learned how to neutralize his Bumpety atack. 
If he does not open his eyes soon, he will dash into the lower area of the banzuke.

Edited May 20, 2017 by Frakazu
grammar

[Asashosakari 18,786]

7 minutes ago, Frakazu said:

I agree too.

It seems that Kotoshôgiku still needs time to process the fact that he is not an ozeki. A year ago, he thought he could reach the next rank or, in the worst case, stay as ôzeki until 37 or 38. The ideal moment to retire was before losing the rank of ôzeki. But Kotoshôgiku thought he could get the kachi-koshi, then thought he could get 10 victories as a sekiwake. Now he thinks he could win 33 victories, or that he could stay in san-yaku.  Kotoshôgiku still does not realize that his best time has passed and that young sekitori have learned how to neutralize his Bumpety atack. 
If he does not open his eyes soon, he will dash into the lower area of the banzuke.

That's some mighty dose of armchair psychology. What makes you think you know what "the ideal moment to retire" is, and what makes you believe that a rikishi deviating from your idea somehow must be delusional about his career prospects?

[Frakazu 22]

In the match between Kisenosato and Mitakeumi, both sekitori remained almost frozen in the center of dohyô; studying each other and waiting the best moment to atack.

Is there a special name or phrase for that situation?