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Doitsuyama

Somewhat Historical Rikishi Strength Analysis

33 posts in this topic

As some of you might know, I have calculated strength ratings (on the ELO formula) for Ozumo based on all Juryo and Makuuchi bouts since 1989. Since I got hold of the Makuuchi bout-by-bout results since 1973 (scans from Sumo World, and typing everything into Excel...) I thought it would be a nice idea to expand my ratings to start from 1973.

So I did and I am very pleased with the results, pretty accurately showing the performances of all Makuuchi rikishi since 1973, including many Yokozuna and Ozeki. Now I tried to answer the world-moving question "How to compare the rikishi from different eras?" with the help of my ratings.

The easiest thing is just to compare the peak career rating. The disadvantage of that is that several rikishi have a short peak with big drop-offs elsewhere (for example Mienoumi) while other rikishi have countless basho near the career peak (for example Musashimaru).

I discarded the idea of taking the career average rating because rikishi generally are viewed upon their top performances when evaluating the career. Also such rikishi as Konishiki got a low career average only because they competed until they couldn't, what shouldn't count against them.

My solution was to take the best N ratings (with N = 3, 6 and 10) and calculate a weighted average of them with the career peak rating getting the weight N and the Nth best rating getting the weight 1. Furthermore, since the ratings from one basho to another are strongly dependent, all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart. A big value for N favors rikishi with sustained and successful longevity, while a short N favors rikishi who have a short peak period.

Let us just look at the results, shall we?

I made tables grouped by the career highest rank (Yokozuna, Ozeki and so on), leaving away all rikishi with less than 20 Makuuchi basho. The columns mean :

Rank = highest career rank

Basho = # non-kyujo basho since 1973 (I left away all kyujo basho in the whole calculation)

Makuuchi = # non-kyujo basho in Makuuchi (only relevant from 1989 onwards since I don't have Juryo bouts before that)

Kyujo = # kyujo basho

Peak = career peak rating

Rating 3 = weighted average of top 3 career ratings

Rating 6 = weighted average of top 6 career ratings

Rating 10 = weighted average of top 10 career ratings

Rank = overall rank for the rating left to that column

Yokozuna
Rank Shikona Basho Makuuchi Kyujo Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank
Y1e Kitanoumi 69 69 4 2691 1 2680 1 2659 1 2626 1
Y1e Chiyonofuji 75 75 6 2642 2 2630 2 2613 2 2597 2
Y1e Mienoumi 47 47 1 2589 3 2537 7 2486 9 2442 12
Y1e Takanohana 69 64 11 2589 4 2578 3 2562 4 2541 4
Y1e Wajima 49 49 1 2579 5 2571 4 2562 3 2550 3
Y1e Wakanohana II 52 52 3 2570 6 2562 5 2543 5 2513 5
Y1e Akebono 56 53 10 2565 7 2538 6 2521 6 2504 6
Y1e Asashoryu 24 22 0 2563 8 2532 8 2484 10 2412 17
Y1e Takanosato 56 56 2 2554 9 2513 10 2474 12 2428 14
Y1e Asahifuji 53 53 1 2532 10 2523 9 2509 7 2481 7
Y1e Hokutoumi 46 46 7 2522 11 2510 11 2497 8 2476 9
Y1e Musashimaru 70 68 5 2493 14 2480 13 2472 13 2465 10
Y1w Onokuni 45 45 6 2488 15 2473 15 2455 15 2430 13
Y1w Futahaguro 20 20 1 2475 19 2464 16 2420 19 2388 21
Y1e Wakanohana III 56 53 5 2429 26 2418 26 2402 23 2389 20

Clearly Kitanoumi was the best rikishi since 1973, no matter how you slice it. The vote is overwhelming. Chiyonofuji of course has more yusho but my ratings suggest very strongly that the competition for Kitanoumi was a lot harder than for Chiyonofuji with Wajima, Wakanohana II and Mienoumi also claiming top slots in this table.

Chijonofuji also very clearly is far ahead of the third best rikishi whoever this is. The peak rating has Mienoumi ahead by parts of a point, but the weighted ratings clearly have Takanohana and Wajima pretty much equally in third place followed by Wakanohana II and Akebono.

Mienoumi's peak was so short that his weighted ratings rapidly drop off with more basho into the equation. Musashimaru on the other hand has a peak of "only" 2493, but also many years with ratings close to the peak.

Clearly the weakest Yokozuna in this period are Futahaguro (hurt of course by a premature Intai) and Wakanohana III (no excuses - he would have been better off staying Ozeki).

Asashoryu just barely qualifies for the 20 Makuuchi basho limitation as he still isn't a full four years in Makuuchi. So it is no wonder his weighted 10 basho rating has a big drop off which will take care of itself within the next year or two. He also has all the time to improve his career peak rating as he is just now sitting on it.

Ozeki
Rank Shikona Basho Makuuchi Kyujo Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank
O1e Wakashimazu 40 40 0 2485 16 2456 18 2421 18 2379 25
O1e Konishiki 78 78 3 2477 17 2463 17 2448 16 2426 15
O1e Kirishima 70 70 1 2476 18 2438 20 2397 26 2336 30
O1e Kaio 73 64 3 2457 20 2443 19 2430 17 2418 16
O1e Daiju 26 26 0 2453 21 2390 30 2341 33 2303 36
O1e Tochiazuma 45 42 5 2451 22 2423 22 2400 24 2379 24
O1e Takanohana 49 49 0 2444 23 2422 23 2403 22 2381 23
O1e Kotokaze 46 46 3 2432 24 2432 21 2412 21 2389 19
O1e Asahikuni 41 41 0 2432 25 2422 24 2399 25 2364 27
O1e Chiyotaikai 51 38 4 2421 27 2419 25 2415 20 2396 18
O1e Takanonami 80 76 0 2414 28 2397 29 2382 29 2361 28
O1e Asashio 62 62 1 2412 29 2405 27 2389 28 2374 26
O1e Hokutenyu 58 58 2 2409 30 2405 28 2396 27 2385 22
O1e Kaiketsu 37 37 0 2404 31 2383 31 2359 30 2329 31
O1e Musoyama 64 62 4 2401 32 2375 32 2357 31 2339 29
O1e Dejima 44 41 4 2395 33 2374 33 2342 32 2311 33
O1w Miyabiyama 33 31 2 2351 40 2307 42 2278 44 2256 44
O1e Masuiyama 50 50 0 2340 42 2307 44 2277 45 2254 45

The cut-off between Yokozuna (Futahaguro and Wakanohana III excluded) and Ozeki is very sharp as no Ozeki surpasses the Yokozuna in any rating category. I'd say this is a strong argument in favor of the existing Yokozuna promotion guidelines whatever they are exactly.

Besides Konishiki, the best Ozeki by career rating evaluation seems to be Kaio, as both Wakashimazu and Kirishima have a higher career peak but a very short one. But even Kaio's rating evaluation doesn't provide strong arguments for a Yokozuna promotion. He is one of the best Ozeki ever as is Chiyotaikai. Chiyotaikai's peak isn't that high but he already has impressive longevity marks despite being only 28 years old. Tochiazuma also has been a strong Ozeki so far, with higher but shorter peak.

Takanonami wasn't that strong of an Ozeki as often is claimed. His peak was relatively low, and also pretty short. And sadly Musoyama really is one of the weaker Ozeki since 1973 while Miyabiyama and Masuiyama don't quite belong to the Ozeki group at all.

Sekiwake
Rank Shikona Basho Makuuchi Kyujo Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank
S1e Kotomitsuki 27 22 2 2361 35 2331 36 2307 38 2278 37
S1e Wakanosato 38 33 3 2357 37 2336 35 2320 35 2278 38
S1e Kotonishiki 69 65 2 2355 38 2348 34 2331 34 2315 32
S1e Kotogaume 73 52 1 2354 39 2323 38 2299 40 2274 40
S1e Tochinowaka 75 75 1 2342 41 2317 39 2299 39 2273 41
S1e Dewanohana 62 62 0 2331 43 2303 45 2267 49 2238 52
S1e Tamanofuji 41 41 0 2325 44 2307 43 2275 46 2242 50
S1e Mitoizumi 83 75 5 2322 45 2294 46 2266 50 2240 51
S1e Tochiakagi 33 33 2 2322 46 2293 47 2259 52 2218 55
S1e Tosanoumi 58 54 1 2318 47 2309 41 2292 41 2275 39
S1e Sakahoko 58 56 1 2315 48 2289 49 2257 53 2232 53
S1e Arase 46 46 2 2313 49 2288 50 2267 48 2245 48
S1e Akinoshima 88 88 3 2298 50 2290 48 2283 42 2273 42
S1e Takamiyama 67 67 0 2290 51 2287 51 2279 43 2261 43
S1e Takatoriki 80 67 0 2288 52 2269 54 2257 54 2245 47
S1e Kirinji 83 83 1 2286 53 2280 52 2269 47 2254 46
S1w Kyokutenho 50 35 0 2281 55 2264 55 2229 58 2189 63
S1e Kurohimeyama 52 52 0 2277 56 2273 53 2263 51 2243 49
S1e Terao 102 92 3 2272 57 2263 56 2237 57 2212 57
S1e Washuyama 47 47 2 2271 58 2262 57 2242 56 2212 58
S1w Kotonowaka 81 78 4 2268 59 2246 60 2226 61 2209 60
S1e Ozutsu 80 78 0 2266 60 2248 59 2227 59 2209 61
S1e Takanowaka 30 25 2 2264 61 2239 61 2211 63 2168 71
S1w Fujizakura 65 65 0 2257 63 2254 58 2242 55 2221 54
S1e Tochinonada 46 43 1 2238 68 2236 62 2227 60 2213 56
S1w Tochihikari 60 60 0 2238 69 2230 64 2221 62 2209 59
S1w Tamanoshima 29 22 0 2237 71 2218 68 2187 71 2143 81
S1e Kitaseumi 33 33 1 2237 72 2216 71 2187 70 2157 77
S1w Aobajo 62 62 0 2235 73 2226 65 2201 66 2178 67
S1e Hasegawa 21 21 0 2234 74 2223 67 2206 65 2200 62
S1w Kurama 66 61 1 2227 76 2223 66 2208 64 2184 65
S1w Tamakasuga 56 46 1 2224 77 2197 76 2182 74 2164 72
S1w Daijuyama 63 63 1 2222 78 2210 72 2199 67 2186 64
S2e Wakashoyo 37 22 1 2221 80 2163 98 2123 106 2088 133
S1w Kotofuji 42 36 1 2203 90 2189 83 2172 79 2149 78
S1e Kaiki 65 65 1 2189 95 2179 90 2158 84 2141 82
S1w Toryu 56 49 1 2187 97 2166 95 2148 92 2129 91
S1w Tochitsukasa 43 31 1 2175 106 2160 101 2141 98 2123 96
S1e Masudayama 51 47 0 2174 107 2158 103 2133 103 2115 99
S1w Tagaryu 54 49 0 2165 115 2132 117 2111 120 2098 120
S1e Ho-o 35 33 1 2151 118 2135 114 2117 113 2101 111
S1w Koboyama 52 47 0 2143 126 2129 120 2114 114 2103 109

Again a very clear cut-off line between Ozeki and Sekiwake. With the exception of Miyabiyama and Masuiyama all Sekiwake since 1973 have been weaker than the Ozeki group. The two strongest Sekiwake are Kotomitsuki and Wakanosato, both of course still are Ozeki contenders. They need a push in their performance to reach the big barrier though. With weighted 10 basho rating Kotonishiki is the best Sekiwake, no wonder considering his career marks.

Edited by Doitsuyama

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Komusubi
Rank Shikona Basho Makuuchi Kyujo Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank
K1e Asahiyutaka 32 24 0 2241 67 2184 86 2149 91 2110 105
K1e Ryogoku 35 32 0 2237 70 2217 70 2197 68 2179 66
K1e Yutakayama 45 45 0 2229 75 2210 73 2192 69 2170 69
K1e Misugisato 62 53 0 2221 79 2201 75 2178 76 2158 74
K1w Kenko 37 27 3 2217 81 2195 77 2164 81 2128 94
K1e Sadanoumi 45 45 0 2209 83 2193 80 2175 78 2157 76
K1e Toki 41 35 1 2206 85 2185 85 2163 82 2145 79
K1w Kyokudozan 47 47 1 2206 87 2183 87 2151 88 2129 90
K1w Hananoumi 25 25 2 2203 88 2189 82 2176 77 2170 70
K1e Daishoho 48 33 3 2203 89 2169 93 2150 89 2129 89
K1e Oshio 47 47 1 2196 92 2173 92 2148 93 2129 92
K1w Kurosegawa 26 26 0 2191 93 2158 102 2134 102 2110 103
K1e Aobayama 31 31 0 2190 94 2180 88 2163 83 2140 83
K1e Oginishiki 70 45 4 2186 98 2179 89 2155 86 2131 87
K1w Banryuyama 32 32 0 2182 101 2134 115 2109 124 2085 135
K1w Chiyotenzan 42 22 1 2178 103 2154 106 2121 110 2072 153
K1e Wakajishi 31 31 0 2173 108 2147 108 2118 111 2089 132
K1e Onishiki 53 53 0 2169 110 2160 100 2148 94 2132 86
K1w Kyokushuzan 56 48 0 2169 112 2167 94 2158 85 2144 80
K1w Wakanoyama 62 31 1 2155 116 2127 123 2099 139 2069 159
K1w Kaiho 43 36 1 2150 121 2132 116 2105 130 2081 141
K1w Tamakiyama 24 24 0 2148 123 2124 125 2105 129 2085 137
K1e Kotoinazuma 68 60 1 2146 124 2122 131 2103 132 2090 127
K1w Itai 54 53 1 2141 128 2132 118 2121 109 2110 102
K1e Futatsuryu 22 22 2 2138 132 2122 128 2113 117 2110 104
K1w Daizen 72 35 2 2137 134 2127 122 2111 121 2090 129
K1e Jingaku 48 47 0 2135 138 2122 129 2114 115 2105 107
K1w Takamisugi 71 70 1 2132 139 2125 124 2113 118 2103 108
K1e Mainoumi 52 36 1 2131 140 2103 151 2089 151 2078 145
K1w Hamanoshima 54 44 1 2127 144 2104 148 2089 150 2075 148
K1e Takanofuji 37 33 0 2114 156 2101 152 2092 146 2079 144
K1w Daitetsu 42 31 0 2107 162 2092 162 2082 159 2072 154
K1w Tamaryu 46 30 0 2103 166 2098 156 2083 158 2065 161

The cut-off line between Sekiwake and Komusubi is not that sharp, but still very clear. Asahiyutaka has the best peak rating of the Komusubi but also a big drop-off around the peak. So I'd say the best Komusubi since 1973 were Ryogoku and Yutakayama.

Maegashira
Rank Shikona Basho Makuuchi Kyujo Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank
M1w Amanoyama 30 30 0 2207 84 2178 91 2155 87 2127 95
M1e Kushimaumi 58 35 0 2206 86 2193 79 2179 75 2162 73
M1e Tochiazuma 24 24 1 2175 104 2154 107 2137 99 2120 98
M1e Hananokuni 36 24 0 2175 105 2155 105 2134 101 2099 116
M2e Daishoyama 31 22 2 2171 109 2161 99 2146 95 2111 101
M1w Aogiyama 68 36 3 2151 119 2128 121 2113 119 2090 130
M3e Tokitsuumi 42 34 2 2148 122 2144 109 2124 105 2100 113
M2e Kirinishiki 48 32 3 2142 127 2129 119 2114 116 2098 119
M1w Higonoumi 59 51 4 2136 137 2114 138 2102 133 2094 122
M1w Zaonishiki 24 24 0 2130 141 2120 132 2092 147 2070 157
M1w Toyonoumi 63 30 0 2128 142 2118 134 2106 128 2091 124
M1e Wakasegawa 34 33 0 2124 145 2119 133 2110 122 2099 117
M2e Oginohana 54 26 1 2124 146 2118 135 2109 123 2091 125
M1e Kotobeppu 32 25 2 2123 147 2108 145 2093 145 2056 171
M1w Kotoryu 54 45 3 2123 148 2114 139 2107 125 2100 114
M2w Misugiiso 35 35 0 2122 150 2109 143 2099 140 2083 139
M1e Aminishiki 28 24 0 2122 151 2118 136 2101 135 2067 160
M2e Minatofuji 61 45 1 2122 152 2115 137 2102 134 2090 128
M2w Asanosho 38 31 2 2114 154 2105 147 2087 155 2069 158
M4e Kiraiho 38 25 0 2109 158 2085 169 2072 168 2051 175
M1w Shikishima 44 27 1 2108 161 2094 161 2079 161 2062 167
M2w Futagodake 21 21 1 2107 163 2103 149 2094 144 2089 131
M1e Kasugafuji 46 42 1 2100 170 2096 159 2088 152 2080 142
M1w Tochisakae 26 20 2 2099 172 2083 171 2065 174 2042 181
M3w Kitakachidoki 69 48 1 2096 173 2094 160 2088 154 2080 143
M1w Enazakura 39 26 0 2095 175 2092 163 2088 153 2062 166
M1w Asanowaka 70 52 0 2094 176 2080 172 2071 170 2064 164
M2w Tochitsurugi 28 28 0 2083 184 2080 173 2076 165 2065 162
M1w Ganyu 30 23 0 2075 192 2064 187 2053 183 2029 192
M3e Daishi 54 23 0 2070 197 2067 185 2057 179 2030 190
M1w Hidanohana 26 25 0 2069 199 2064 190 2049 186 2023 196
M4w Otsukasa 47 22 0 2049 210 2035 203 2020 206 2003 211

There is no real cut-off between the moto-Komusubi and the moto-Maegashira, but still there is a clear difference in average rating between these two groups of about 40 points.

By the way, Tochiazuma is one (of hopefully few) example of inadvertently being in the wrong group, as he had his true highest rank before 1973. The minimum of 20 Makuuchi basho after 1973 should reduce the number of those cases though.

Edited by Doitsuyama

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Excellent post - very illuminating!

I was surprised to see Musashimaru rated that low. Thinking about it and looking at the ratings page the reasons become clearer: he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Likewise, I suppose that it will be hard for Asashoryu to get a real boost in his ratings until the general level of competition at the top of makuuchi goes up substantially. (OTOH he has to face everybody at the top, which I assume compensates somewhat.) Am I right about that?

Q: Is the rating updated after each bout, or after each basho?

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Thank you Doitsu.

Is there any way to access your new database directly? I can seem to find it on your page. For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

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I agree, truly excellent! (In a state of confusion...)

What surprised me was that even the rather unremarkable Onokuni comes out ahead of all the Ozeki, I didn't quite expect that.

And in the department of useless trivia, I'm intrigued to find out that Wakashoyo was the only rikishi in this survey with a haridashi sanyaku ranking as his highest rank. (I am not worthy...)

One prodecural question...when you say that "all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart", do I interpret this correctly to mean that (for example) a full N=10 would require at least 28 ranked basho?

For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

Presumably that's Kitanofuji and Kotozakura, both excluded for not having 20 basho post-1973.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Still working my brain around this - very interesting though.

Have to ask mind - is this:

M1e Tochiazuma 24 24 1 2175 104 2154 107 2137 99 2120 98

the current Tochiazuma's father? If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake. (In a state of confusion...)

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the current Tochiazuma's father?  If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake.  (In a state of confusion...)

Yes, but his highest rank came before 1973, which was the cut-off point for the day-to-day records used by Doitsuyama in calculating his ratings. So the first Tochiazuma is only rated for the tournaments he participated in after 1973, during which time he didn't advance past M1. As Doitsuyama mentioned, he is a bit misplaced in the bottom grouping because of this.

Edited by Zentoryu

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What surprised me was that even the rather unremarkable Onokuni comes out ahead of all the Ozeki, I didn't quite expect that.

Well he did have a rather good run from mid 1987 through 1988 (which I assume was probably his peak period) winning 2 Yusho (one zensho) and 4 Jun-Yusho (2 of them 13-2). All of this against some tough competition (Chiyonofuji and the like). Unfortunately for him it was a performance he couldn't sustain.

Edited by Zentoryu

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Excellent post - very illuminating!

I was surprised to see Musashimaru rated that low. Thinking about it and looking at the ratings page the reasons become clearer: he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Likewise, I suppose that it will be hard for Asashoryu to get a real boost in his ratings until the general level of competition at the top of makuuchi goes up substantially. (OTOH he has to face everybody at the top, which I assume compensates somewhat.) Am I right about that?

Q: Is the rating updated after each bout, or after each basho?

Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna. To Asashoryu, I wouldn't exactly say the current top ranks are weak, it is rather average now. And he is holding his own quite well with a lot of 15-0 and 14-1. Considering his really low number of basho so far, his career placement already is pretty high, I'd say. It only can (and most probably will) get better.

To your question: The ratings are calculated after every bout, but for this analysis I only took the final ratings after each basho.

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Thank you Doitsu.

Is there any way to access your new database directly? I can seem to find it on your page. For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

Not yet. I still have to update the current pages, and probably will do so with a MySql database and one or two PHP pages. Probably even less work than copying and pasting some hundred basho, plus I then could do a PHP page to see a rikishi's progress basho per basho. If there is interest for the stuff, I also could expand the database and make a page to see the bout-by-bout progress for a rikishi, or a page to analyze specific combinations, like Akinoshima-Kotonishiki or Musashimaru-Takanonami.

Gaps in the ranks result because I left all rikishi with less than 20 Makuushi basho off the tables. Ranks 12 and 13 indeed are Kitanofuji (Peak 2501 with 8 basho) and Kotozakura (2519 with 9 basho).

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One prodecural question...when you say that "all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart", do I interpret this correctly to mean that (for example) a full N=10 would require at least 28 ranked basho?

Correct... if there are less than 10 samples available, I leave it at that. Futahaguro for example only has 6 possible samples, the 6th already his Makuuchi debut basho with an (unfairly) low rating. In the weighted 10 basho rating I then take those 6 with the weights 10 to 5, leaving out the samples 7 to 10.

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Have to ask mind - is this:

M1e Tochiazuma 24 24 1 2175 104 2154 107 2137 99 2120 98

the current Tochiazuma's father? If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake. (In a state of confusion...)

Yes, you are correct. I mentioned that in the last paragraph, funnily specifically with Tochiazuma... no reprimanding though for not reading through. (I am not worthy...)

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Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna.

Yes, I get it now. If Musashimaru had really been equal to Akebono in strength, he should have won more bouts, considering that he got easier opponents on average. So the rating reflects his true strength.

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I have done some reading on the ELO rating system. Hands up everyone who thought that ELO was an acronym. I did ... (In a state of confusion...) It is named after its inventor, Hungarian

Edited by Kashunowaka

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I have done some reading on the ELO rating system. Hands up everyone who thought that ELO was an acronym. I did ... (In a state of confusion...) It is named after its inventor, Hungarian
Edited by Kintamayama

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Thanks Doitsuyama-zeki, this is truly amazing work! (In a state of confusion...) I agree with Kintamayama, and because I don't really understand how this works it is even more magic to me. But if I'm not all mistaken you need the bashoresults and all the personal profiles of the rikishi to make this, eh?

Quite surprising that Kitanoumi surpasses Chiyonofuji but he truly was more constant in his results, he also holds the records for most wins per year and most consecutive double digit KKs, does he? This is the statistic of the year! (I am not worthy...)

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But if I'm not all mistaken you need the bashoresults and all the personal profiles of the rikishi to make this, eh?

I need all bouts, not only the basho results. The ratings are determined not only by the results (which "bashoresults" can give), but most importantly against whom the results were achieved.

The truth is, the calculation of the ratings in itself was a relatively simple matter, even if you have to make some (several, actually) considerations to complete the calculation model. The real work was collecting all those results (for the raw material I want to thank Chijanofuji from 1973 to 1988 and Yubiquitoyama from 1989 onwards) and working out all the shikona changes etc. I have more bouts even earlier back to 1761 or so, but "only" for the Sanyaku, also with all shikona changes worked out. But I guess the material is a bit too thin to make real ratings from that.

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I need all bouts, not only the basho results. The ratings are determined not only by the results (which "bashoresults" can give), but most importantly against whom the results were achieved.

The truth is, the calculation of the ratings in itself was a relatively simple matter, even if you have to make some (several, actually) considerations to complete the calculation model. The real work was collecting all those results (for the raw material I want to thank Chijanofuji from 1973 to 1988 and Yubiquitoyama from 1989 onwards) and working out all the shikona changes etc. I have more bouts even earlier back to 1761 or so, but "only" for the Sanyaku, also with all shikona changes worked out. But I guess the material is a bit too thin to make real ratings from that.

Doitsu,

You will be able to find the daily bout results for July - Sept 1972 on www.juryo.com from the Mainichi newspaper. I have put up the first 5 days of November 1972 and have days 6-11 on my computer at home to be typed when I get a chance. Articles for 1972 are somewhat longer to type compared to those from 1930s and 1950s.

Only a couple more basho, but a bit more nonetheless. They are in table format, so should be easy enough to copy. Can scan and send as jpg files if you want sooner.

Wanchanyama

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Impressive stats Doitsuyama. And yes the strongest Non-Ozeki Kotonishiki was there....

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Why this amazing and awesome piece of a work is not anymore readable ?

Many thanks anyway Doitsuyama !!! :-O

Regards,

Chienoshima

Ps : Can someone fix the problem with the tables ?

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Ps : Can someone fix the problem with the tables ?

Ok, I fixed that. The new board version could have been slightly more compatible to the previous one if you ask me... Or at least the version upgrade could have included those pretty easy conversions like HTML option.

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On the new glance of the list today I just realized Mienoumi was listed quite high... Him becoming Yokozuna was one of two wonders in the Sumo(another one being Hokutoumi becoming one). My impression of Mie was always at Shimotori level at best, but detail analysis shows he is quite high... very interesting indeed.

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Ok, I fixed that. The new board version could have been slightly more compatible to the previous one if you ask me... Or at least the version upgrade could have included those pretty easy conversions like HTML option.

Thanks a lot, Doitsuyama !! You're the best !! ;-)

Au revoir,

Chienoshima

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first of all: thank you Doitsuyama for this most excellent article.

even though God and the Kyokai work in mysterious ways (I was stupid...) it seems as if the gap between ozeki and Yokozuna is real enough. (Blushing...)

Excellent post - very illuminating!

he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna.

your reasoning is correct, but isn't it also true that -since you can gain more points by winning against higher ranked rikishi - you need them to get higher scores?

i could be wrong of course. statistical analysis math lies almost 10 years in the past ... (Sign of approval)

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The case of Kaio has always puzzled me.

He is not like other rikishis whose strength deteriorates over time. Rather his rating has gone up (from 2300 to 2400) in the last 5-10 years, despite having numerous well known injuries. Is he qualitively better now than during the Ake-Taka era?

Is the system fully accounting for the strength of the opposition?

As a comparision, Musoyama has also gone up since year 2000 when the 2 yokozunas were not active. Musashimaru has experienced less fluctuations, but there is still a slight increase.

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