Somewhat Historical Rikishi Strength Analysis

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

As some of you might know, I have calculated strength ratings (on the ELO formula) for Ozumo based on all Juryo and Makuuchi bouts since 1989. Since I got hold of the Makuuchi bout-by-bout results since 1973 (scans from Sumo World, and typing everything into Excel...) I thought it would be a nice idea to expand my ratings to start from 1973.

So I did and I am very pleased with the results, pretty accurately showing the performances of all Makuuchi rikishi since 1973, including many Yokozuna and Ozeki. Now I tried to answer the world-moving question "How to compare the rikishi from different eras?" with the help of my ratings.

The easiest thing is just to compare the peak career rating. The disadvantage of that is that several rikishi have a short peak with big drop-offs elsewhere (for example Mienoumi) while other rikishi have countless basho near the career peak (for example Musashimaru).

I discarded the idea of taking the career average rating because rikishi generally are viewed upon their top performances when evaluating the career. Also such rikishi as Konishiki got a low career average only because they competed until they couldn't, what shouldn't count against them.

My solution was to take the best N ratings (with N = 3, 6 and 10) and calculate a weighted average of them with the career peak rating getting the weight N and the Nth best rating getting the weight 1. Furthermore, since the ratings from one basho to another are strongly dependent, all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart. A big value for N favors rikishi with sustained and successful longevity, while a short N favors rikishi who have a short peak period.

Let us just look at the results, shall we?

I made tables grouped by the career highest rank (Yokozuna, Ozeki and so on), leaving away all rikishi with less than 20 Makuuchi basho. The columns mean :

Rank = highest career rank

Basho = # non-kyujo basho since 1973 (I left away all kyujo basho in the whole calculation)

Makuuchi = # non-kyujo basho in Makuuchi (only relevant from 1989 onwards since I don't have Juryo bouts before that)

Kyujo = # kyujo basho

Peak = career peak rating

Rating ₃ = weighted average of top 3 career ratings

Rating ₆ = weighted average of top 6 career ratings

Rating ₁₀ = weighted average of top 10 career ratings

Rank = overall rank for the rating left to that column

Yokozuna

Rank	Shikona	Basho	Makuuchi	Kyujo	Peak	Rank	Rating 3	Rank	Rating 6	Rank	Rating 10	Rank
Y1e	Kitanoumi	69	69	4	2691	1	2680	1	2659	1	2626	1
Y1e	Chiyonofuji	75	75	6	2642	2	2630	2	2613	2	2597	2
Y1e	Mienoumi	47	47	1	2589	3	2537	7	2486	9	2442	12
Y1e	Takanohana	69	64	11	2589	4	2578	3	2562	4	2541	4
Y1e	Wajima	49	49	1	2579	5	2571	4	2562	3	2550	3
Y1e	Wakanohana II	52	52	3	2570	6	2562	5	2543	5	2513	5
Y1e	Akebono	56	53	10	2565	7	2538	6	2521	6	2504	6
Y1e	Asashoryu	24	22	0	2563	8	2532	8	2484	10	2412	17
Y1e	Takanosato	56	56	2	2554	9	2513	10	2474	12	2428	14
Y1e	Asahifuji	53	53	1	2532	10	2523	9	2509	7	2481	7
Y1e	Hokutoumi	46	46	7	2522	11	2510	11	2497	8	2476	9
Y1e	Musashimaru	70	68	5	2493	14	2480	13	2472	13	2465	10
Y1w	Onokuni	45	45	6	2488	15	2473	15	2455	15	2430	13
Y1w	Futahaguro	20	20	1	2475	19	2464	16	2420	19	2388	21
Y1e	Wakanohana III	56	53	5	2429	26	2418	26	2402	23	2389	20

Clearly Kitanoumi was the best rikishi since 1973, no matter how you slice it. The vote is overwhelming. Chiyonofuji of course has more yusho but my ratings suggest very strongly that the competition for Kitanoumi was a lot harder than for Chiyonofuji with Wajima, Wakanohana II and Mienoumi also claiming top slots in this table.

Chijonofuji also very clearly is far ahead of the third best rikishi whoever this is. The peak rating has Mienoumi ahead by parts of a point, but the weighted ratings clearly have Takanohana and Wajima pretty much equally in third place followed by Wakanohana II and Akebono.

Mienoumi's peak was so short that his weighted ratings rapidly drop off with more basho into the equation. Musashimaru on the other hand has a peak of "only" 2493, but also many years with ratings close to the peak.

Clearly the weakest Yokozuna in this period are Futahaguro (hurt of course by a premature Intai) and Wakanohana III (no excuses - he would have been better off staying Ozeki).

Asashoryu just barely qualifies for the 20 Makuuchi basho limitation as he still isn't a full four years in Makuuchi. So it is no wonder his weighted 10 basho rating has a big drop off which will take care of itself within the next year or two. He also has all the time to improve his career peak rating as he is just now sitting on it.

Ozeki

Rank	Shikona	Basho	Makuuchi	Kyujo	Peak	Rank	Rating 3	Rank	Rating 6	Rank	Rating 10	Rank
O1e	Wakashimazu	40	40	0	2485	16	2456	18	2421	18	2379	25
O1e	Konishiki	78	78	3	2477	17	2463	17	2448	16	2426	15
O1e	Kirishima	70	70	1	2476	18	2438	20	2397	26	2336	30
O1e	Kaio	73	64	3	2457	20	2443	19	2430	17	2418	16
O1e	Daiju	26	26	0	2453	21	2390	30	2341	33	2303	36
O1e	Tochiazuma	45	42	5	2451	22	2423	22	2400	24	2379	24
O1e	Takanohana	49	49	0	2444	23	2422	23	2403	22	2381	23
O1e	Kotokaze	46	46	3	2432	24	2432	21	2412	21	2389	19
O1e	Asahikuni	41	41	0	2432	25	2422	24	2399	25	2364	27
O1e	Chiyotaikai	51	38	4	2421	27	2419	25	2415	20	2396	18
O1e	Takanonami	80	76	0	2414	28	2397	29	2382	29	2361	28
O1e	Asashio	62	62	1	2412	29	2405	27	2389	28	2374	26
O1e	Hokutenyu	58	58	2	2409	30	2405	28	2396	27	2385	22
O1e	Kaiketsu	37	37	0	2404	31	2383	31	2359	30	2329	31
O1e	Musoyama	64	62	4	2401	32	2375	32	2357	31	2339	29
O1e	Dejima	44	41	4	2395	33	2374	33	2342	32	2311	33
O1w	Miyabiyama	33	31	2	2351	40	2307	42	2278	44	2256	44
O1e	Masuiyama	50	50	0	2340	42	2307	44	2277	45	2254	45

The cut-off between Yokozuna (Futahaguro and Wakanohana III excluded) and Ozeki is very sharp as no Ozeki surpasses the Yokozuna in any rating category. I'd say this is a strong argument in favor of the existing Yokozuna promotion guidelines whatever they are exactly.

Besides Konishiki, the best Ozeki by career rating evaluation seems to be Kaio, as both Wakashimazu and Kirishima have a higher career peak but a very short one. But even Kaio's rating evaluation doesn't provide strong arguments for a Yokozuna promotion. He is one of the best Ozeki ever as is Chiyotaikai. Chiyotaikai's peak isn't that high but he already has impressive longevity marks despite being only 28 years old. Tochiazuma also has been a strong Ozeki so far, with higher but shorter peak.

Takanonami wasn't that strong of an Ozeki as often is claimed. His peak was relatively low, and also pretty short. And sadly Musoyama really is one of the weaker Ozeki since 1973 while Miyabiyama and Masuiyama don't quite belong to the Ozeki group at all.

Sekiwake

Rank	Shikona	Basho	Makuuchi	Kyujo	Peak	Rank	Rating 3	Rank	Rating 6	Rank	Rating 10	Rank
S1e	Kotomitsuki	27	22	2	2361	35	2331	36	2307	38	2278	37
S1e	Wakanosato	38	33	3	2357	37	2336	35	2320	35	2278	38
S1e	Kotonishiki	69	65	2	2355	38	2348	34	2331	34	2315	32
S1e	Kotogaume	73	52	1	2354	39	2323	38	2299	40	2274	40
S1e	Tochinowaka	75	75	1	2342	41	2317	39	2299	39	2273	41
S1e	Dewanohana	62	62	0	2331	43	2303	45	2267	49	2238	52
S1e	Tamanofuji	41	41	0	2325	44	2307	43	2275	46	2242	50
S1e	Mitoizumi	83	75	5	2322	45	2294	46	2266	50	2240	51
S1e	Tochiakagi	33	33	2	2322	46	2293	47	2259	52	2218	55
S1e	Tosanoumi	58	54	1	2318	47	2309	41	2292	41	2275	39
S1e	Sakahoko	58	56	1	2315	48	2289	49	2257	53	2232	53
S1e	Arase	46	46	2	2313	49	2288	50	2267	48	2245	48
S1e	Akinoshima	88	88	3	2298	50	2290	48	2283	42	2273	42
S1e	Takamiyama	67	67	0	2290	51	2287	51	2279	43	2261	43
S1e	Takatoriki	80	67	0	2288	52	2269	54	2257	54	2245	47
S1e	Kirinji	83	83	1	2286	53	2280	52	2269	47	2254	46
S1w	Kyokutenho	50	35	0	2281	55	2264	55	2229	58	2189	63
S1e	Kurohimeyama	52	52	0	2277	56	2273	53	2263	51	2243	49
S1e	Terao	102	92	3	2272	57	2263	56	2237	57	2212	57
S1e	Washuyama	47	47	2	2271	58	2262	57	2242	56	2212	58
S1w	Kotonowaka	81	78	4	2268	59	2246	60	2226	61	2209	60
S1e	Ozutsu	80	78	0	2266	60	2248	59	2227	59	2209	61
S1e	Takanowaka	30	25	2	2264	61	2239	61	2211	63	2168	71
S1w	Fujizakura	65	65	0	2257	63	2254	58	2242	55	2221	54
S1e	Tochinonada	46	43	1	2238	68	2236	62	2227	60	2213	56
S1w	Tochihikari	60	60	0	2238	69	2230	64	2221	62	2209	59
S1w	Tamanoshima	29	22	0	2237	71	2218	68	2187	71	2143	81
S1e	Kitaseumi	33	33	1	2237	72	2216	71	2187	70	2157	77
S1w	Aobajo	62	62	0	2235	73	2226	65	2201	66	2178	67
S1e	Hasegawa	21	21	0	2234	74	2223	67	2206	65	2200	62
S1w	Kurama	66	61	1	2227	76	2223	66	2208	64	2184	65
S1w	Tamakasuga	56	46	1	2224	77	2197	76	2182	74	2164	72
S1w	Daijuyama	63	63	1	2222	78	2210	72	2199	67	2186	64
S2e	Wakashoyo	37	22	1	2221	80	2163	98	2123	106	2088	133
S1w	Kotofuji	42	36	1	2203	90	2189	83	2172	79	2149	78
S1e	Kaiki	65	65	1	2189	95	2179	90	2158	84	2141	82
S1w	Toryu	56	49	1	2187	97	2166	95	2148	92	2129	91
S1w	Tochitsukasa	43	31	1	2175	106	2160	101	2141	98	2123	96
S1e	Masudayama	51	47	0	2174	107	2158	103	2133	103	2115	99
S1w	Tagaryu	54	49	0	2165	115	2132	117	2111	120	2098	120
S1e	Ho-o	35	33	1	2151	118	2135	114	2117	113	2101	111
S1w	Koboyama	52	47	0	2143	126	2129	120	2114	114	2103	109

Again a very clear cut-off line between Ozeki and Sekiwake. With the exception of Miyabiyama and Masuiyama all Sekiwake since 1973 have been weaker than the Ozeki group. The two strongest Sekiwake are Kotomitsuki and Wakanosato, both of course still are Ozeki contenders. They need a push in their performance to reach the big barrier though. With weighted 10 basho rating Kotonishiki is the best Sekiwake, no wonder considering his career marks.

Edited January 14, 2005 by Doitsuyama

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Komusubi

Rank	Shikona	Basho	Makuuchi	Kyujo	Peak	Rank	Rating 3	Rank	Rating 6	Rank	Rating 10	Rank
K1e	Asahiyutaka	32	24	0	2241	67	2184	86	2149	91	2110	105
K1e	Ryogoku	35	32	0	2237	70	2217	70	2197	68	2179	66
K1e	Yutakayama	45	45	0	2229	75	2210	73	2192	69	2170	69
K1e	Misugisato	62	53	0	2221	79	2201	75	2178	76	2158	74
K1w	Kenko	37	27	3	2217	81	2195	77	2164	81	2128	94
K1e	Sadanoumi	45	45	0	2209	83	2193	80	2175	78	2157	76
K1e	Toki	41	35	1	2206	85	2185	85	2163	82	2145	79
K1w	Kyokudozan	47	47	1	2206	87	2183	87	2151	88	2129	90
K1w	Hananoumi	25	25	2	2203	88	2189	82	2176	77	2170	70
K1e	Daishoho	48	33	3	2203	89	2169	93	2150	89	2129	89
K1e	Oshio	47	47	1	2196	92	2173	92	2148	93	2129	92
K1w	Kurosegawa	26	26	0	2191	93	2158	102	2134	102	2110	103
K1e	Aobayama	31	31	0	2190	94	2180	88	2163	83	2140	83
K1e	Oginishiki	70	45	4	2186	98	2179	89	2155	86	2131	87
K1w	Banryuyama	32	32	0	2182	101	2134	115	2109	124	2085	135
K1w	Chiyotenzan	42	22	1	2178	103	2154	106	2121	110	2072	153
K1e	Wakajishi	31	31	0	2173	108	2147	108	2118	111	2089	132
K1e	Onishiki	53	53	0	2169	110	2160	100	2148	94	2132	86
K1w	Kyokushuzan	56	48	0	2169	112	2167	94	2158	85	2144	80
K1w	Wakanoyama	62	31	1	2155	116	2127	123	2099	139	2069	159
K1w	Kaiho	43	36	1	2150	121	2132	116	2105	130	2081	141
K1w	Tamakiyama	24	24	0	2148	123	2124	125	2105	129	2085	137
K1e	Kotoinazuma	68	60	1	2146	124	2122	131	2103	132	2090	127
K1w	Itai	54	53	1	2141	128	2132	118	2121	109	2110	102
K1e	Futatsuryu	22	22	2	2138	132	2122	128	2113	117	2110	104
K1w	Daizen	72	35	2	2137	134	2127	122	2111	121	2090	129
K1e	Jingaku	48	47	0	2135	138	2122	129	2114	115	2105	107
K1w	Takamisugi	71	70	1	2132	139	2125	124	2113	118	2103	108
K1e	Mainoumi	52	36	1	2131	140	2103	151	2089	151	2078	145
K1w	Hamanoshima	54	44	1	2127	144	2104	148	2089	150	2075	148
K1e	Takanofuji	37	33	0	2114	156	2101	152	2092	146	2079	144
K1w	Daitetsu	42	31	0	2107	162	2092	162	2082	159	2072	154
K1w	Tamaryu	46	30	0	2103	166	2098	156	2083	158	2065	161

The cut-off line between Sekiwake and Komusubi is not that sharp, but still very clear. Asahiyutaka has the best peak rating of the Komusubi but also a big drop-off around the peak. So I'd say the best Komusubi since 1973 were Ryogoku and Yutakayama.

Maegashira

Rank	Shikona	Basho	Makuuchi	Kyujo	Peak	Rank	Rating 3	Rank	Rating 6	Rank	Rating 10	Rank
M1w	Amanoyama	30	30	0	2207	84	2178	91	2155	87	2127	95
M1e	Kushimaumi	58	35	0	2206	86	2193	79	2179	75	2162	73
M1e	Tochiazuma	24	24	1	2175	104	2154	107	2137	99	2120	98
M1e	Hananokuni	36	24	0	2175	105	2155	105	2134	101	2099	116
M2e	Daishoyama	31	22	2	2171	109	2161	99	2146	95	2111	101
M1w	Aogiyama	68	36	3	2151	119	2128	121	2113	119	2090	130
M3e	Tokitsuumi	42	34	2	2148	122	2144	109	2124	105	2100	113
M2e	Kirinishiki	48	32	3	2142	127	2129	119	2114	116	2098	119
M1w	Higonoumi	59	51	4	2136	137	2114	138	2102	133	2094	122
M1w	Zaonishiki	24	24	0	2130	141	2120	132	2092	147	2070	157
M1w	Toyonoumi	63	30	0	2128	142	2118	134	2106	128	2091	124
M1e	Wakasegawa	34	33	0	2124	145	2119	133	2110	122	2099	117
M2e	Oginohana	54	26	1	2124	146	2118	135	2109	123	2091	125
M1e	Kotobeppu	32	25	2	2123	147	2108	145	2093	145	2056	171
M1w	Kotoryu	54	45	3	2123	148	2114	139	2107	125	2100	114
M2w	Misugiiso	35	35	0	2122	150	2109	143	2099	140	2083	139
M1e	Aminishiki	28	24	0	2122	151	2118	136	2101	135	2067	160
M2e	Minatofuji	61	45	1	2122	152	2115	137	2102	134	2090	128
M2w	Asanosho	38	31	2	2114	154	2105	147	2087	155	2069	158
M4e	Kiraiho	38	25	0	2109	158	2085	169	2072	168	2051	175
M1w	Shikishima	44	27	1	2108	161	2094	161	2079	161	2062	167
M2w	Futagodake	21	21	1	2107	163	2103	149	2094	144	2089	131
M1e	Kasugafuji	46	42	1	2100	170	2096	159	2088	152	2080	142
M1w	Tochisakae	26	20	2	2099	172	2083	171	2065	174	2042	181
M3w	Kitakachidoki	69	48	1	2096	173	2094	160	2088	154	2080	143
M1w	Enazakura	39	26	0	2095	175	2092	163	2088	153	2062	166
M1w	Asanowaka	70	52	0	2094	176	2080	172	2071	170	2064	164
M2w	Tochitsurugi	28	28	0	2083	184	2080	173	2076	165	2065	162
M1w	Ganyu	30	23	0	2075	192	2064	187	2053	183	2029	192
M3e	Daishi	54	23	0	2070	197	2067	185	2057	179	2030	190
M1w	Hidanohana	26	25	0	2069	199	2064	190	2049	186	2023	196
M4w	Otsukasa	47	22	0	2049	210	2035	203	2020	206	2003	211

There is no real cut-off between the moto-Komusubi and the moto-Maegashira, but still there is a clear difference in average rating between these two groups of about 40 points.

By the way, Tochiazuma is one (of hopefully few) example of inadvertently being in the wrong group, as he had his true highest rank before 1973. The minimum of 20 Makuuchi basho after 1973 should reduce the number of those cases though.

Edited January 14, 2005 by Doitsuyama

[Kashunowaka 300]

Excellent post - very illuminating!

I was surprised to see Musashimaru rated that low. Thinking about it and looking at the ratings page the reasons become clearer: he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Likewise, I suppose that it will be hard for Asashoryu to get a real boost in his ratings until the general level of competition at the top of makuuchi goes up substantially. (OTOH he has to face everybody at the top, which I assume compensates somewhat.) Am I right about that?

Q: Is the rating updated after each bout, or after each basho?

[Zuikakuyama 1]

Thank you Doitsu.

Is there any way to access your new database directly? I can seem to find it on your page. For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

I agree, truly excellent! (In a state of confusion...)

What surprised me was that even the rather unremarkable Onokuni comes out ahead of all the Ozeki, I didn't quite expect that.

And in the department of useless trivia, I'm intrigued to find out that Wakashoyo was the only rikishi in this survey with a haridashi sanyaku ranking as his highest rank. (I am not worthy...)

One prodecural question...when you say that "all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart", do I interpret this correctly to mean that (for example) a full N=10 would require at least 28 ranked basho?

For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

Presumably that's Kitanofuji and Kotozakura, both excluded for not having 20 basho post-1973.

Edited August 9, 2004 by Asashosakari

[Mark Buckton 1]

Still working my brain around this - very interesting though.

Have to ask mind - is this:

M1e Tochiazuma 24 24 1 2175 104 2154 107 2137 99 2120 98

the current Tochiazuma's father? If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake. (In a state of confusion...)

[Zentoryu 154]

the current Tochiazuma's father?  If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake.  (In a state of confusion...)

Yes, but his highest rank came before 1973, which was the cut-off point for the day-to-day records used by Doitsuyama in calculating his ratings. So the first Tochiazuma is only rated for the tournaments he participated in after 1973, during which time he didn't advance past M1. As Doitsuyama mentioned, he is a bit misplaced in the bottom grouping because of this.

Edited August 9, 2004 by Zentoryu

[Zentoryu 154]

What surprised me was that even the rather unremarkable Onokuni comes out ahead of all the Ozeki, I didn't quite expect that.

Well he did have a rather good run from mid 1987 through 1988 (which I assume was probably his peak period) winning 2 Yusho (one zensho) and 4 Jun-Yusho (2 of them 13-2). All of this against some tough competition (Chiyonofuji and the like). Unfortunately for him it was a performance he couldn't sustain.

Edited August 9, 2004 by Zentoryu

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Excellent post - very illuminating!

I was surprised to see Musashimaru rated that low. Thinking about it and looking at the ratings page the reasons become clearer: he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Likewise, I suppose that it will be hard for Asashoryu to get a real boost in his ratings until the general level of competition at the top of makuuchi goes up substantially. (OTOH he has to face everybody at the top, which I assume compensates somewhat.) Am I right about that?

Q: Is the rating updated after each bout, or after each basho?

Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna. To Asashoryu, I wouldn't exactly say the current top ranks are weak, it is rather average now. And he is holding his own quite well with a lot of 15-0 and 14-1. Considering his really low number of basho so far, his career placement already is pretty high, I'd say. It only can (and most probably will) get better.

To your question: The ratings are calculated after every bout, but for this analysis I only took the final ratings after each basho.

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Thank you Doitsu.

Is there any way to access your new database directly? I can seem to find it on your page. For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

Not yet. I still have to update the current pages, and probably will do so with a MySql database and one or two PHP pages. Probably even less work than copying and pasting some hundred basho, plus I then could do a PHP page to see a rikishi's progress basho per basho. If there is interest for the stuff, I also could expand the database and make a page to see the bout-by-bout progress for a rikishi, or a page to analyze specific combinations, like Akinoshima-Kotonishiki or Musashimaru-Takanonami.

Gaps in the ranks result because I left all rikishi with less than 20 Makuushi basho off the tables. Ranks 12 and 13 indeed are Kitanofuji (Peak 2501 with 8 basho) and Kotozakura (2519 with 9 basho).

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

One prodecural question...when you say that "all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart", do I interpret this correctly to mean that (for example) a full N=10 would require at least 28 ranked basho?

Correct... if there are less than 10 samples available, I leave it at that. Futahaguro for example only has 6 possible samples, the 6th already his Makuuchi debut basho with an (unfairly) low rating. In the weighted 10 basho rating I then take those 6 with the weights 10 to 5, leaving out the samples 7 to 10.

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Have to ask mind - is this:

M1e Tochiazuma 24 24 1 2175 104 2154 107 2137 99 2120 98

the current Tochiazuma's father? If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake. (In a state of confusion...)

Yes, you are correct. I mentioned that in the last paragraph, funnily specifically with Tochiazuma... no reprimanding though for not reading through. (I am not worthy...)

[Kashunowaka 300]

Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna.

Yes, I get it now. If Musashimaru had really been equal to Akebono in strength, he should have won more bouts, considering that he got easier opponents on average. So the rating reflects his true strength.

[Kashunowaka 300]

I have done some reading on the ELO rating system. Hands up everyone who thought that ELO was an acronym. I did ... (In a state of confusion...) It is named after its inventor, Hungarian

Edited August 9, 2004 by Kashunowaka

[Kintamayama 44,350]

I have done some reading on the ELO rating system. Hands up everyone who thought that ELO was an acronym. I did ... (In a state of confusion...) It is named after its inventor, Hungarian

Edited August 9, 2004 by Kintamayama

[Araiwa 0]

Thanks Doitsuyama-zeki, this is truly amazing work! (In a state of confusion...) I agree with Kintamayama, and because I don't really understand how this works it is even more magic to me. But if I'm not all mistaken you need the bashoresults and all the personal profiles of the rikishi to make this, eh?

Quite surprising that Kitanoumi surpasses Chiyonofuji but he truly was more constant in his results, he also holds the records for most wins per year and most consecutive double digit KKs, does he? This is the statistic of the year! (I am not worthy...)

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

But if I'm not all mistaken you need the bashoresults and all the personal profiles of the rikishi to make this, eh?

I need all bouts, not only the basho results. The ratings are determined not only by the results (which "bashoresults" can give), but most importantly against whom the results were achieved.

The truth is, the calculation of the ratings in itself was a relatively simple matter, even if you have to make some (several, actually) considerations to complete the calculation model. The real work was collecting all those results (for the raw material I want to thank Chijanofuji from 1973 to 1988 and Yubiquitoyama from 1989 onwards) and working out all the shikona changes etc. I have more bouts even earlier back to 1761 or so, but "only" for the Sanyaku, also with all shikona changes worked out. But I guess the material is a bit too thin to make real ratings from that.

[wanchanyama 0]

I need all bouts, not only the basho results. The ratings are determined not only by the results (which "bashoresults" can give), but most importantly against whom the results were achieved.

The truth is, the calculation of the ratings in itself was a relatively simple matter, even if you have to make some (several, actually) considerations to complete the calculation model. The real work was collecting all those results (for the raw material I want to thank Chijanofuji from 1973 to 1988 and Yubiquitoyama from 1989 onwards) and working out all the shikona changes etc. I have more bouts even earlier back to 1761 or so, but "only" for the Sanyaku, also with all shikona changes worked out. But I guess the material is a bit too thin to make real ratings from that.

Doitsu,

You will be able to find the daily bout results for July - Sept 1972 on www.juryo.com from the Mainichi newspaper. I have put up the first 5 days of November 1972 and have days 6-11 on my computer at home to be typed when I get a chance. Articles for 1972 are somewhat longer to type compared to those from 1930s and 1950s.

Only a couple more basho, but a bit more nonetheless. They are in table format, so should be easy enough to copy. Can scan and send as jpg files if you want sooner.

Wanchanyama

[hoshidango 0]

Impressive stats Doitsuyama. And yes the strongest Non-Ozeki Kotonishiki was there....

[Chienoshima 0]

Why this amazing and awesome piece of a work is not anymore readable ?

Many thanks anyway Doitsuyama !!! :-O

Regards,

Chienoshima

Ps : Can someone fix the problem with the tables ?

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Ps : Can someone fix the problem with the tables ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ok, I fixed that. The new board version could have been slightly more compatible to the previous one if you ask me... Or at least the version upgrade could have included those pretty easy conversions like HTML option.

[hoshidango 0]

On the new glance of the list today I just realized Mienoumi was listed quite high... Him becoming Yokozuna was one of two wonders in the Sumo(another one being Hokutoumi becoming one). My impression of Mie was always at Shimotori level at best, but detail analysis shows he is quite high... very interesting indeed.

[Chienoshima 0]

Ok, I fixed that. The new board version could have been slightly more compatible to the previous one if you ask me... Or at least the version upgrade could have included those pretty easy conversions like HTML option.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks a lot, Doitsuyama !! You're the best !! ;-)

Au revoir,

Chienoshima

[sumofan 6]

first of all: thank you Doitsuyama for this most excellent article.

even though God and the Kyokai work in mysterious ways (I was stupid...) it seems as if the gap between ozeki and Yokozuna is real enough. (Blushing...)

Excellent post - very illuminating!

he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

your reasoning is correct, but isn't it also true that -since you can gain more points by winning against higher ranked rikishi - you need them to get higher scores?

i could be wrong of course. statistical analysis math lies almost 10 years in the past ... (Sign of approval)

[Zuikakuyama 1]

The case of Kaio has always puzzled me.

He is not like other rikishis whose strength deteriorates over time. Rather his rating has gone up (from 2300 to 2400) in the last 5-10 years, despite having numerous well known injuries. Is he qualitively better now than during the Ake-Taka era?

Is the system fully accounting for the strength of the opposition?

As a comparision, Musoyama has also gone up since year 2000 when the 2 yokozunas were not active. Musashimaru has experienced less fluctuations, but there is still a slight increase.