72nd Yokozuna Kisenosato preparation thread

[Rigel 62]

24 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Everyone believes in a some codified standard that says "yusho equivalent" - there is none. It is simply the result that follows right after the yusho - and if that result is 2 wins behind, it is still the next best: but then there is more needed to get accepted for a yokozuna promotion. Kisenosato has provided that with his mass of jun-yusho and most wins last year - had he been yokozuna with those results last year, no one would have called for his retirement, like is done all the time for Harumafuji and Kakuryu.

That's a good point. If you took a sumo fan from 1980 and time-warped him to today, didn't tell him any rankings but just showed him 2016 records... after informing him that there are 3 Yokozuna he'd say "well Kisenosato is one obviously, probably hakuho, but who is the other 1?"

Edited January 23, 2017 by Rigel

[Akinomaki 39,529]

Of course the whole country was waiting for a new Japanese yokozuna and everybody connected to the NSK wanted to promote him, but they had to wait till he provided a result with which a promotion could be justified - and this basho he just managed to do that, in way so that the rules were applicable with good will - and good will there was plenty.

Lowering the standard would have been: promoting him with just 2 jun-yusho, both 1 or 2 wins behind the yusho. That still would have been possible under the rules, but it had become standard to not promote without a yusho.

[Rocks 1,804]

33 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Everyone believes in a some codified standard that says "yusho equivalent" - there is none. It is simply the result that follows right after the yusho - and if that result is 2 wins behind, it is still the next best: but then there is more needed to get accepted for a yokozuna promotion. Kisenosato has provided that with his mass of jun-yusho and most wins last year - had he been yokozuna with those results last year, no one would have called for his retirement, like is done all the time for Harumafuji and Kakuryu.

I would agree. Did anyone say Kakuryu and Harumafuji would not have been made Yokozuna if their "2 in a row or equivalent" were slightly less than they had gotten? I doubt it.  The issue with both not being universally anticipated to be promoted is that both had scored over 11 wins as Ozeki rarely. Once for Kak and twice for Harumafuji. Yes, his 2 were yushos but both were preceded by and followed with standard level Ozeki records. Kise has had over 11 wins 7 times in his Ozeki career. 4 of which came in the last year.

The other issue to consider is maturity. Yes, Hakuho had more than enough for promotion in his 1st 2 basho as Ozeki but he had been just promoted. He had only just turned old enough to legally drink in the US 3 months prior. Anyone surprised they forced him to make it extra certain? Kise has no such issues.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Rocks

[Akinomaki 39,529]

It was simply a fashion for a while to only promote with 2 yusho: but that forces a promotion (unless the rikishi can be declared a villain), while the other way needs a majority in favor. If there is doubt about the quality and consistency of the sumo of the rikishi, this majority is unlikely. The fashion was to promote only who had to be promoted, and not who just could have been promoted - nobody just like Kise has been denied promotion though.

Kakuryu really had provided the best yusho equivalent he could provide - and after this a really good yusho - of course he got that majority with it.

 

Edited January 23, 2017 by Akinomaki

[RabidJohn 1,630]

I'm not sure it was a fashion to promote only with 2 yusho so much as a coincidence. Yes, every yok from Asahifuji to Harumafuji has 2 consecutive yusho, but if you look at the yusho-winning ozeki none of them had anything like consistent enough overall records to be promoted, even those with more than 1 - then there was Kakuryu.

I'm happy to accept Kise's performance over 2016 as a whole as his 'yusho equivalent' and this yusho as the clincher; it feel right to me that the missing yusho was all he needed. I didn't feel like this for Kotoshogiku or Goeido. But my feelings and yours have bugger all to do with it. The YDC said "Yes" with all hands raised and that's what counts.

I know the general track record of shin-yokozuna isn't great, but his shisho bucked that trend and won his 1st, so I'm hoping Kise can emulate him and silence the critics hereabouts.

I was mildly surprised he's going unryu style when his shisho was shiranui, but then I think I remembered some Japanese superstition about shiranui being a bit unlucky... I no longer trust my memory, so I may be way wide of the mark there. No doubt someone will put me right.

Edited January 23, 2017 by RabidJohn

[Akinomaki 39,529]

2 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

some Japanese superstition about shiranui being a bit unlucky

The superstition that those yokozuna are short lived may still hold for Japanese yokozuna: Hakuho only has proven it to be irrelevant for foreigners - and Harumafuji may still end up short lived. And if Hakuho fails to achieve 40 yusho, it can be blamed on the shiranui.

[Rigel 62]

35 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Lowering the standard would have been: promoting him with just 2 jun-yusho, both 1 or 2 wins behind the yusho. That still would have been possible under the rules, but it had become standard to not promote without a yusho.

Given what happened last time, I doubt any of us will live to see the day that they promote another to yokozuna without a yusho.

[Asashosakari 18,660]

6 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm not sure it was a fashion to promote only with 2 yusho so much as a coincidence. Yes, every yok from Asahifuji to Harumafuji has 2 consecutive yusho, but if you look at the yusho-winning ozeki none of them had anything like consistent enough overall records to be promoted, even those with more than 1 - then there was Kakuryu.

Exactly. For all intents and purposes, the hard two-yusho line only existed for about 15 years, from post-Futahaguro to the early 2000s. They've been walking it back to pre-Futahaguro levels ever since - but it took more than 10 years until an ozeki came along with Kakuryu who actually managed to again fulfill the slightly lower traditional standards. (Now that we've had consecutive promotions with less than back-to-back yusho, maybe that will finally stop newer fans from turning up and boldly declaring that it's an outrage when "the established standard" of back-to-back yusho is deviated from... Nah.)

I do find it amusing that Kisenosato is partly getting promoted on the strength of an entire six-basho run, just like he was for his ozeki promotion.

[hamcornheinz 839]

All I have to say about Kisenosato is I didn't support him initially, I disagree with some of the things he's said, I think he has a spotty record which points in both directions, but now that he's yokozuna, I support him as an American and hope he does well. 

[rhyen 1,799]

8 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Lies, damn lies and statistics. The kyokai lowered the "two consecutive yusho or yusho equivalent" standard and everyone knows it!  They did it because Kisenosato is Japanese and everyone knows it!

 

7 hours ago, Rigel said:

Go back more than 2 basho and they look VERY different.

Nothing is equivalent to 2 yusho in a span of 2 tournaments. So by definition they have to mean more than 2 tournaments.

Whatever, I guess that all members are familiar with the YDC/NSK motion of getting Kisenosato promoted.
Of course, we know what happened in Kyushu 2013, Hatsu 2014 & Haru 2014.

Spoiler

 

Now that they have done their job, the YDC can go back to sniping the Mongolian yokozuna/issuing intai requests every basho, while patting themselves on the back for producing a Japanese yokozuna and safeguarding the highest rank from future foreigners.

 

 

27 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Exactly. For all intents and purposes, the hard two-yusho line only existed for about 15 years, from post-Futahaguro to the early 2000s. They've been walking it back to pre-Futahaguro levels ever since - but it took more than 10 years until an ozeki came along with Kakuryu who actually managed to again fulfill the slightly lower traditional standards. (Now that we've had consecutive promotions with less than back-to-back yusho, maybe that will finally stop newer fans from turning up and boldly declaring that it's an outrage when "the established standard" of back-to-back yusho is deviated from... Nah.)

I do find it amusing that Kisenosato is partly getting promoted on the strength of an entire six-basho run, just like he was for his ozeki promotion.

I don't think the 4 basho/6 basho/historical justification is the basis for his promotion.
It is just part of the media hype/spin to counter any doubts that he is not as good as the 3 current yokozuna by digging far back into their past to find a favourable record for Kisenosato.

Edited January 24, 2017 by rhyen

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

Of the 32 Yokozuna active in the 6 basho era, 12 of them were promoted to Yokozuna after consecutive yusho,.

Total stats: (Result of two basho before promotion: Y = Yusho / J = JunYusho / N = Neither

Y / Y : 12 Yokozuna (Hakuho & Harumafuji)
J / Y : 8 Yokozuna (Kakuryu.. really a doten / yusho & Kisenosato)
N / Y : 2 Yokozuna (both barely made it to the 6 basho era)
Y / J : 2 Yokozuna
Y / N : 1 Yokozuna
J / J : 5 Yokozuna
N / J: 2 Yokozuna
 

 

 

[Rigel 62]

Since the YDC specifically cited his record over his last 6 tournaments as an equivalent to a 2nd yusho, I figured I'd look at that and see what we can learn, and I think there may be a good guideline somewhere in there. In those 6 tournaments, all of them were double digit wins, and he had 74 wins, for an average of 12 1/3 wins per tournament. People like round numbers so lets say this standard is an average of 12 or more wins (so, 72+ wins). How often does someone who isn't already going to qualify to be promoted to Yokozuna anyway pull that off over 6 tournaments? Not very often, I'd think, that is an exceptional demonstration of sustained success.

So, for those who want specified hard guidelines, well you still wont get that, but JUST for our amusement to waste some time, here's an updated flowchart...

Should (rikishi_name) be promoted to yokozuna?

1) Did they have at least one yusho in their last 2 tournaments?

a) Yes: go to Q2

b) No: NO Promotion

2) Do they have back to back yusho?

a) Yes: Promotion!

b) No: Go to Q3

3) Did you think Kakuryu's promotion was a mistake?

a) Yes: Go to Q5

b) No: Go to Q4

4) Did they have a yusho and a playoff loss in their last two tournaments as an Ozeki?

a) Yes: Promotion!

b) No: Go to Q5

5) Did you think Kisenosato's promotion was a mistake?

a) Yes: NO Promotion

b) No: Go to Q6

6) Did they have 72 or more wins in their last 6 tournaments as an Ozeki?

a) Yes: Promotion!

b) No: NO Promotion

Edited January 24, 2017 by Rigel

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

16 minutes ago, rhyen said:

I don't think the 4 basho/6 basho/historical justification is the basis for his promotion.
It is just part of the media hype/spin to counter any doubts that he is not as good as the 3 current yokozuna by digging far back into their past to find a favourable record for Kisenosato.

If those weren't the basis for his promotion, and it was actually just because he is Japanese, then they would have promoted him to Yokozuna a long time ago...

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

Anyway this debate is silly.

Kisenosato already on the TV show circuit, this is from Sunday Sports. (Japanese/no subs)

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by Tsuchinoninjin

[Asashosakari 18,660]

23 minutes ago, rhyen said:

Now that they have done their job, the YDC can go back to sniping the Mongolian yokozuna/issuing intai requests every basho, while patting themselves on the back for producing a Japanese yokozuna and safeguarding the highest rank from future foreigners. (...)

I don't think the 4 basho/6 basho/historical justification is the basis for his promotion.
It is just part of the media hype/spin to counter any doubts that he is not as good as the 3 current yokozuna by digging far back into their past to find a favourable record for Kisenosato.

Speaking of sniping...

[Bumpkin 438]

For the record, I am not against Kisenosato's promotion. Nor am I against a Japanese Yokozuna. I am against lowering a long-standing policy. Especially for nationalistic reasons. Imagine how exciting Haru would be if everyone knew Kisenosato needed to either win or have an "equivalent" to be promoted.

[Asashosakari 18,660]

17 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

For the record, I am not against Kisenosato's promotion. Nor am I against a Japanese Yokozuna. I am against lowering a long-standing policy.

As said before, you're well over a decade too late. They've been "lowering the standards" (read: returning them to their actual long-standing policies) since at least 2003.

Edit: Actually, make that since at least 2002. When Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma had a yusho playoff as ozeki in Hatsu 2002, both of them were put on tsunatori afterwards.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Rigel 62]

Looking back at Ozeki wrestlers who won a yusho but were not promoted over the last 15 years, compared to this hypothetical 72 wins+recent yusho standard in 6 basho, what kise did (74 wins) seems very rare.

Goeido (Sept '16): 55 wins

Kotoshogiku (Jan '16): 55 wins

Harumafuji (July '12): 61 wins

Baruto (Jan '12): 65 wins

Harumafuji (July '11): 50 wins

Harumafuji (May '09): 67 wins

Kotooshu (May '08): 44 wins

Tochiazuma (Jan '06): 57 wins

Kaio (Sept '04): 67 wins

Tochiazuma (Nov '03): 38 wins

Kaio (July '03): 47 wins

Chiyotaikai (Mar '03): 53 wins

Chiyotaikai (July '02): 49 wins

Tochiazuma (Jan '02): 65 wins

[Rigel 62]

This "big deal, they were lowering standards anyway" talk I think is the wrong argument, we're overlooking and cheapening just how remarkable kisenosato's achievement is in its own right. Forget any previous bias you have had and just look at what he did in 6 tournaments, compared to what Ozeki wrestlers normally do. It really is a very impressive run he's on. It deserves its own little rarely-repeated exception to be carved out regardless of nationality.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Rigel

[Asashosakari 18,660]

17 minutes ago, Rigel said:

This "big deal, they were lowering standards anyway" talk I think is the wrong argument, we're overlooking and cheapening just how remarkable kisenosato's achievement is in its own right. Forget any previous bias you have had and just look at what he did in 6 tournaments, compared to what Ozeki wrestlers normally do. It really is a very impressive run he's on. It deserves its own little rarely-repeated exception to be carved out regardless of nationality.

I agree in principle, but in order to wean people off this "back-to-back yusho is the only thing that ought to matter" idea, it's useful to demonstrate that, long-term, this has largely been a minority view and not some sort of eternally-valid consensus.

Anyway, the six-basho era has been going on for nearly 60 years now. I've always been willing to listen to arguments why what they were doing 1988~2001 is somehow more relevant or important than what they were doing 1958~1987 and 2002~2017, but I've rarely seen any. Heck, most of the time the sole argument seems to be "back-to-back yusho is a nice clear standard that removes all discretion", which seems to be fueled by either a) distrust of the guys tasked with making these decisions, and/or b) the desire to not have to think too hard as a fan.

1988~2001 is the historical aberration, not what they're doing nowadays.

On a side note: Hard-line standards are the most likely to breed corruption. In competitive environments it's rarely a good idea to tell people, "this, and exactly this, is what you need to achieve to receive X".

[Seijakuzan 59]

 

37 minutes ago, Rigel said:

This "big deal, they were lowering standards anyway" talk I think is the wrong argument, we're overlooking and cheapening just how remarkable kisenosato's achievement is in its own right. Forget any previous bias you have had and just look at what he did in 6 tournaments, compared to what Ozeki wrestlers normally do. It really is a very impressive run he's on. It deserves its own little rarely-repeated exception to be carved out regardless of nationality.

Hell, forget the last 6 basho.  Kisenosato has been doing better than most non-daiyokozuna in the 5 years he has been Ozeki.  Just glancing through the list I'd say he has already exceeded what at least a third did in their entire Ozeki+yokozuna careers, in terms of win% and consistency.

[Akinomaki 39,529]

1 hour ago, Seijakuzan said:

 

Hell, forget the last 6 basho.  Kisenosato has been doing better than most non-daiyokozuna in the 5 years he has been Ozeki.  Just glancing through the list I'd say he has already exceeded what at least a third did in their entire Ozeki+yokozuna careers, in terms of win% and consistency.

Yes, they used the last 6 to really have something to back their support for Kise, but I believe they wouldn't have promoted him with the same if he were 6 years younger: then they might have said: he's still young, let him prove he's really consistent. The achievements prior to these last 6 basho were what made them "promote" him to permanent yokozuna runner last year - and only from this status he could be promoted even with a quite lousy jun-yusho at the start:

to create a case:

Shodai can't be sure to get the rope if he simply manages to produce in 2018 what Kise did in 2016+

(with promotion to ozeki after Kyushu)

Edited January 24, 2017 by Akinomaki

[Swami 245]

The consecutive yusho or "equivalent records" doesn't necessarily ensure a strong yokozuna - think Wakanohana III.  Likewise, the three-basho total of wins - both Wakanohana II and Onokuni won 40 over three basho..

I'd like to think Kisenosato, now he has the monkey off his back in terms of the yusho, will grow into the rank.

 

Swami

[dingo 1,117]

3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I agree in principle, but in order to wean people off this "back-to-back yusho is the only thing that ought to matter" idea, it's useful to demonstrate that, long-term, this has largely been a minority view and not some sort of eternally-valid consensus.

Anyway, the six-basho era has been going on for nearly 60 years now. I've always been willing to listen to arguments why what they were doing 1988~2001 is somehow more relevant or important than what they were doing 1958~1987 and 2002~2017, but I've rarely seen any. Heck, most of the time the sole argument seems to be "back-to-back yusho is a nice clear standard that removes all discretion", which seems to be fueled by either a) distrust of the guys tasked with making these decisions, and/or b) the desire to not have to think too hard as a fan.

1988~2001 is the historical aberration, not what they're doing nowadays.

On a side note: Hard-line standards are the most likely to breed corruption. In competitive environments it's rarely a good idea to tell people, "this, and exactly this, is what you need to achieve to receive X".

I think you're right that people like clear-cut standards, for example back-to-back yusho or 33 wins to be promoted to Ozeki, mostly cause it's easy to understand and provides a clear metric without having to rely on what the higher sumo powers think which introduces an element of uncertainty. Black and white is always easier to understand than (50 ;) ) shades of grey. 

By the way, as a hypothetical situation I wonder what the kyokai and YDC would think if an Ozeki would get back-to-back 12-3 yusho? I suspect they would dig into the long term past results as well. 

Edited January 24, 2017 by dingo

[Akinomaki 39,529]

The weather forecast for Tokyo on Friday said cloudy with up to 12°C (low of 2°C), Kise won't get pneumonia from the doyho-iri at the Meiji-jingu.

Soon the preparations at the heya of the hemp for the tsuna will begin, which is presented to him with his yokozuna license at the award ceremony at the shrine, and with it he then performs there his 1st yokozuna hounou-dohyo-iri. For Kakuryu it was live and VOD on NicoNico, I hope his will be somewhere as well.

Today as usual the news focus on speculations about the acceptance phrase.