shimodahito 336 Posted January 16, 2017 (edited) I'm too anxious for one of my favorite threads to start; and am so looking forward to Asashosakari's tables and breakdown of the promotion/demotion situation. I'm not going to attempt to post for him, but have a quick observation. JONOKUCHI Division: It took just 4 matches to narrow the division to two remaining undefeated rikishi. Both Jk10W Maeta and Jk17E Marutaki are 4-0; however neither may win the yusho. Today they face each other to leave one at 5-0, so it will be interesting to see who the last two matches will be against. Will they face undefeated Jonidan rikishi, or one-loss Jonokuchi rikishi? Either way, a loss would provide a wonderful Jonokuchi multi-rikishi playoff. -shimodahito Edited January 17, 2017 by shimodahito Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shimodahito 336 Posted January 17, 2017 18 hours ago, shimodahito said: JONOKUCHI Division: It took just 4 matches to narrow the division to two remaining undefeated rikishi. Both Jk10W Maeta and Jk17E Marutaki are 4-0; however neither may win the yusho. Today they face each other to leave one at 5-0, so it will be interesting to see who the last two matches will be against. Will they face undefeated Jonidan rikishi, or one-loss Jonokuchi rikishi? Either way, a loss would provide a wonderful Jonokuchi multi-rikishi playoff. -shimodahito Jk10W Maeta is the last undefeated Jonokuchi. It looks like the opted to put him against a 4-1 Jonidan rikishi for day 11. -shimodahito Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
orandashoho 720 Posted January 17, 2017 Would those people not contributing to the topic at hand please refrain from posting here? This is the topic for serious analyses of the promotion/demotion chances of rikishi, and it is too soon in the basho to start speculating about that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,270 Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) Day 10 (results, text-only results): 5-5 Kakuryu Y1 Harumafuji 4-3-3 8-2 Hakuho Y2 9-1 Kisenosato O1 Goeido 7-3 4-6 Terunofuji O2 Is [insert date] finally Kisenosato's basho? He's the sole leader, in any case, in a tournament that seems proud to produce weirdness on a daily basis. Nobody really looks in control of their own destiny; Kisenosato did for the first 6 days or so, but has had to work hard since. Yokozuna Hakuho hasn't brought his A-game at all, but him being Hakuho it's still been good enough to keep in touch with the yusho race, while Kakuryu's timing seems to be off on just about anything he tries, and Harumafuji has already had to depart the basho through injury. Goeido trails the leader by only two wins, but has arguably not looked convincing enough to be a factor as we're heading down the home stretch. Kotoshogiku's ozeki tenure appears to be reaching its end after 5 years - he's trying everything he can, but the power for his forward drives just isn't there this basho. Terunofuji also seems to be running on fumes and has amassed four wins more through sheer guts than by excellent sumo. Rejuvenated Tamawashi is having another decent tournament and has already faced most top-rankers en route to his 6-4 record, but a serious shot at an ozeki-tori basho for March might not be happening, while fellow sekiwake debutant Shodai will probably be very happy if he can still salvage a kachikoshi. If he does, it might get a bit crowded at sekiwake next time with Kotoshogiku possibly coming down to take his shot at 10 wins, and komusubi Takayasu perhaps moving back up (likely needing 11 wins for that though). The other komusubi Tochinoshin left the basho during week one, but the Giku wildcard means there's technically no slot available yet. Double kinboshi winner Mitakeumi is in position to force his way in though with just another couple of victories, and Ikioi also looks on course for a promotable record. Strong records also abound in the mid-low maegashira ranks, but it appears unlikely that any of them will earn a lucky trip to the next sanyaku. O2 Kotoshogiku 3-7 6-4 Tamawashi S Shodai 4-6 7-3 Takayasu K Tochinoshin 0-6-4 (x) 3-7 Takarafuji M1 Mitakeumi 7-3 3-7 Shohozan M2 Arawashi 4-6 M3 Ikioi 7-3 M4 Endo 5-5 7-3 Takekaze M5 Yoshikaze 4-6 5-5 Chiyoshoma M6 M7 7-3 Hokutofuji M8 Chiyonokuni 6-4 M9 8-2 Takanoiwa M10 Sokokurai 8-2 M11 M12 M13 Ichinojo 8-2 Osunaarashi is ailing again, and will find it hard to avoid the trip back to juryo from his current position, but everybody else still has a fighting chance, with only Gagamaru and Chiyoo needing to win more than half of their remaining five bouts. For a change we also have something resembling a promotion race in juryo this basho as the top 5 rikishi in the division are all decently placed at the moment. Daieisho and Ura have both looked good and should be able to collect their still-needed wins soon. Tokushoryu is kachikoshi thanks to a 7-day winning streak and may challenge for promotion from further down the ranks as well. (1) 3-7 Kaisei M9 Ishiura 4-6 (1) M10 (o) 5-5 Kagayaki M11 Nishikigi 4-6 (2) (2) 4-6 Takakeisho M12 Daishomaru 4-6 (2) (3) 3-7 Gagamaru M13 (1) 6-4 Chiyootori M14 Chiyotairyu 5-5 (2) (3) 4-6 Chiyoo M15 Sadanoumi 6-4 (2) (5) 3-7 Osunaarashi M16 --- (3) 5-5 Toyohibiki J1 Hidenoumi 5-5 (3) (3) 6-4 Kyokushuho J2 Daieisho 8-2 (1) (2) 7-3 Ura J3 Chiyomaru 4-6 (5) J4 J5 Onosho 6-4 (4) (~) 5-5 Oyanagi J6 (~) 5-5 Kyokutaisei J7 (4) 8-2 Tokushoryu J8 Tsurugisho 6-4 (~) J9 Amakaze 6-4 (~) J10 (~) 7-3 Homarefuji J11 No juryo is headed back to makushita just yet, but the bottom-ranked duo Wakanoshima and Kizenryu are not in great shape and will find it hard to avoid the demotion. 21-year-old debutant Rikishin has looked very good in spots but seems to lack a little oomph on the physical side yet, so although he might miss the KK or even get demoted this time, he ought to be a future sekitori mainstay before too long. Small-sized Terutsuyoshi is only a few months older and also up here for the first time, but will likely have a harder time in establishing himself. Meanwhile, veteran Asahisho appears to have adopted the A/B approach of his stablemate Kaisei in recent tournaments, and the number of hapless B days just might be getting too large for his continued presence in juryo. The first makushitan has already laid claim to a juryo spot for Haru basho as Kitaharima got the quick 4-0 kachikoshi at the highest rank. He didn't manage to keep the zensho alive, however, losing to collegiate talent Ishibashi who is now this basho's 7-0 wildcard for the promotion race. Outside of those two it's the traditional free-for-all involving at least half a dozen contenders - possibly including Toyonoshima. Normally he'll find it hard to get promoted from Ms6 even with 6 wins, but if there's one guy who might catch a lucky break in case of sufficient numbers of demotable juryo rikishi... (1) 2-8 Kitataiki J5 J6 Kotoeko 4-6 (o) J7 Aminishiki 3-7 (1) J8 J9 (2) 4-6 Amuru J10 Ryuden 5-5 (1) J11 (3) 4-6 Asahisho J12 Rikishin 4-6 (3) (2) 5-5 Terutsuyoshi J13 Daiamami 7-3 (o) (4) 4-6 Wakanoshima J14 Kizenryu 3-7 (5) 4-1 Kitaharima Ms1 Asasekiryu 2-3 (x) 1-4 Asabenkei Ms2 Kairyu 1-4 (x) 3-2 Fujiazuma Ms3 Tochimaru 2-3 2-3 Daishoho Ms4 Takagenji 3-2 3-2 Shiba Ms5 Mugendai 2-3 Ms6 Toyonoshima 4-1 Ms7 Ishibashi 5-0 Explanation of symbols used: numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted) o = favourable outcome achieved x = favourable outcome definitely missed ~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck Edited January 18, 2017 by Asashosakari 15 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,270 Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) (And another post lost to forum weirdness, sigh. Anyway...) Juryo yusho race: 8-2 Daieisho, Tokushoryu 7-3 Ura, Homarefuji, Daiamami 6-4 Kyokushuho, Onosho, Tsurugisho, Amakaze, Satoyama Many people probably tabbed Oyanagi as the yusho favourite, but he's had a tough go and his 5-5 record doesn't even place him within two of the yusho lead. For what little it's worth Daieisho has looked the best to me, so he'd be my pick for the championship. Lots can still change in five days, of course. Lower division yusho races (Day 9/10 results and links to video where available): 5-0 Ms7w Ishibashi (Takasago) 5-0 Ms30w Takayoshitoshi (Takanohana) 5-0 Ms39w Takaryu (Kise) 5-0 Ms51e Asahiryu (Asahiyama) 5-0 Sd16w Takemasa (Onomatsu) 5-0 Sd20w Kisenoyama (Kise) 5-0 Sd44w Yokuyusei (Shibatayama) 5-0 Sd65e Dairaido (Takadagawa) 5-0 Sd77e Oisato (Minezaki) 5-0 Sd86w Haruhikari (Oitekaze) 5-0 Jd10e Nishikifuji (Isegahama) 5-0 Jd10w Midorifuji (Isegahama) 5-0 Jd34w Kotoseigo (Sadogatake) 5-0 Jd65e Hokutohomare (Hakkaku) 5-0 Jd69w Fujinotani (Hakkaku) 5-0 Jd88w Byakkomaru (Tatsunami) 5-0 Jk10w Maeta (Shibatayama) A very interesting quartet of zensho rikishi in makushita, none of whom would look out of place as the yusho winner. Ishibashi is of course the presumptive favourite by rank alone, but an upset by one of the other three wouldn't surprise me at all. The sandanme race strikes me as impossible to call, beyond the fact that 18-year old Yokuyusei (who's at his highest rank) probably won't be winning it. Any of the other five should have a decent shot at it. On the other hand we have the jonidan race which features three clear underdogs and three firm favourites - the latter being Isegahama duo Nishikifuji and Midorifuji, who already duelled their way to 7-0's in jonokuchi last time, plus former high sandanme Kotoseigo. The jonokuchi title should be safely in Maeta's hands. The former high makushita competitor didn't have to face the other makushita returnee, Wakayama, who lost to newcomer Narutaki (who in turn lost to Maeta), and I don't expect the Maeta-Wakayama matchup to materalize now. As usual, the low jonidan opponents he'll actually get will be unlikely to prevent the zensho here. Edited January 18, 2017 by Asashosakari 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,270 Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) And the ex-sekitori...we're up to 36 now, which is very high historically. Rikishi with makuuchi experience in bold, numbers are age and basho since last juryo tournament. 4-1 Ms1e Kitaharima (Yamahibiki, 30, 1) 2-3 Ms1w Asasekiryu (Takasago, 35, 1) 1-4 Ms2e Asabenkei (Takasago, 27, 2) 3-2 Ms3e Fujiazuma (Tamanoi, 29, 2) 2-3 Ms4e Daishoho (Oitekaze, 22, 1) 3-2 Ms6e Meisei (Tatsunami, 21, 1) 4-1 Ms6w Toyonoshima (Tokitsukaze, 33, 2) 1-4 Ms7e Shotenro (Fujishima, 34, 5) 0-5 Ms9e Sadanofuji (Sakaigawa, 32, 1) 4-1 Ms9w Akiseyama (Kise, 31, 4) 1-4 Ms12w Tenkaiho (Onoe, 32, 4) 3-2 Ms13e Shimanoumi (Kise, 27, 3) 3-2 Ms13w Tochihiryu (Kasugano, 29, 12) 1-4 Ms15w Jokoryu (Kise, 28, 4) 3-2 Ms16e Sakigake (Shibatayama, 30, 12) 4-1 Ms17e Dewahayate (Dewanoumi, 27, 3) 2-3 Ms17w Kagamio (Kagamiyama, 28, 4) 2-3 Ms22w Nionoumi (Yamahibiki, 30, 21) 1-4 Ms23e Oiwato (Hakkaku, 35, 19) 4-1 Ms23w Tokushinho (Kise, 32, 7) 4-1 Ms24e Abi (Shikoroyama, 22, 8) 2-3 Ms27e Sotairyu (Tokitsukaze, 34, 11) 2-3 Ms31e Higonojo (Kise, 32, 16) 3-2 Ms32e Chiyoarashi (Kokonoe, 25, 21)0-1-4 Ms33e Hishofuji (Azumazeki, 27, 32) 1-4 Ms33w Dewaotori (Dewanoumi, 31, 61) 5-0 Ms39w Takaryu (Kise, 24, 9) 3-2 Ms45e Kotomisen (Sadogatake, 33, 19) 4-1 Ms46e Keitenkai (Onomatsu, 26, 26) 4-1 Ms47e Sagatsukasa (Irumagawa, 35, 17) 1-4 Ms47w Yoshiazuma (Tamanoi, 39, 14) 2-3 Sd5w Masakaze (Oguruma, 33, 25) 2-3 Sd6e Hitenryu (Tatsunami, 32, 32) 2-3 Sd8w Kaonishiki (Azumazeki, 38, 32)kyujo Sd50e Masunoyama (Chiganoura, 26, 11) 5-0 Sd65e Dairaido (Takadagawa, 36, 62) Jokoryu's sekitori return becomes a little more distant again... Edited January 18, 2017 by Asashosakari 7 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 6,395 Posted January 18, 2017 Sheesh, I never realized Tenkaiho is that old already. I still had him filed as "young talent". 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubinhaad 11,972 Posted January 18, 2017 12 hours ago, Asashosakari said: 4-1 Ms9w Akiseyama (Kise, 31, 4) 1-4 Ms15w Jokoryu (Kise, 28, 4) 5-0 Sd65e Dairaido (Takadagawa, 36, 62) Jokoryu's sekitori return becomes a little more distant again... Akiseyama continues his recovery from whatever mystery ailment caused his quick freefall from shin-nyumaku to Makushita. He clinched his kachi-koshi with a torinaoshi win against Akua - in the entertaining first attempt, Akua almost won with a nice kakenage, but Akiseyama's counter sukuinage saved him. In the rematch Akiseyama quickly got morozashi and it was game over. I don't think Jokoryu has been at 100% physically this basho, he seems to be a step slow and has also had some strapping on his right elbow/arm/shoulder (picture). I know this will likely put the jinx on him and I'll feel terrible for that, but how cool would it be if Dairaido won the Sandanme yusho, more than 20 years after his first and only yusho in his honbasho debut... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsuchinoninjin 1,291 Posted January 18, 2017 Maeta... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sakura 1,524 Posted January 18, 2017 A question about demotions to Sekiwake. How does it work in the banzuke? If Tamawashi and Shodai are both KK, does Kotoshogiku (if he loses) go to S2w? What if only one of them has a KK; whould he got to S1w leaving no room for a promotion by Takaysu? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungSumo 93 Posted January 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, Sakura said: A question about demotions to Sekiwake. How does it work in the banzuke? If Tamawashi and Shodai are both KK, does Kotoshogiku (if he loses) go to S2w? What if only one of them has a KK; whould he got to S1w leaving no room for a promotion by Takaysu? If Tamawashi and Shodai both get their KK then Koto would go to S2e. If this were to happen Takayasu could still be promoted as it is possible to have 4 Sekiwake but he would usually require at least 11 wins. I'm also fairly certain that this would mean that Kotoshogiku would then become S2w. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asojima 2,874 Posted January 18, 2017 If there are 3 sekiwake, Kotoshogiku will be S2w to balance east/west in the sanyaku. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 6,395 Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Asojima said: If there are 3 sekiwake, Kotoshogiku will be S2w to balance east/west in the sanyaku. Won't they rather balance the banzuke by putting the third Ozeki west? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungSumo 93 Posted January 18, 2017 Since Asahiryu and Ishibashi are the only two 6-0 Makushita they will face each other for the Yusho, right? A 21 year old vs a 22 year old who both debuted in march of 2016. Both of these guys could really make an impact in the San'yaku ranks over their careers. Exciting to say the least. The Jonidan yusho race could be a copy of last basho's jonokuchi yusho play-off. Nishikifuji and Midorifuji can't face each other before play-offs because they're both from Isegahama. Amazing to see how parallel these guys careers are going, wonder who will hit the wall first. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asojima 2,874 Posted January 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said: Won't they rather balance the banzuke by putting the third Ozeki west? Oooops. They sure would. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,152 Posted January 18, 2017 4 hours ago, Jakusotsu said: Won't they rather balance the banzuke by putting the third Ozeki west? If there are three sanyaku ranks there are odd numbers at, they historically have put only the lowest of the three ranks on the West side. This is the first one after 1960 I could find, and I don't exactly have time to look for more recent ones. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=196701 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,270 Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Gurowake said: If there are three sanyaku ranks there are odd numbers at, they historically have put only the lowest of the three ranks on the West side. This is the first one after 1960 I could find, and I don't exactly have time to look for more recent ones. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=196701 I would say any cases from the haridashi-style era are no good as precedents now. 3x3+2 arguably should be Y2e, O2w, S2e (or K2e), though it's certainly possible that they would do it differently. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,152 Posted January 19, 2017 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Asashosakari said: I would say any cases from the haridashi-style era are no good as precedents now. 3x3+2 arguably should be Y2e, O2w, S2e (or K2e), though it's certainly possible that they would do it differently. Looks like you're right. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=199905 is the most recent by my reckoning. But I have seen people in Sumo Games (and not just ones where they're wrong about how they do it every single time, if you know what I mean) do it the old way and went back and found ones like the previous. edit: Chiyotaikai was an Ozeki at the same time as Musashimaru? Only for 2 basho, but, like, wow. Edited January 19, 2017 by Gurowake Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,270 Posted January 19, 2017 (edited) Day 11 (results, text-only results): 5-6 Kakuryu Y1 Harumafuji 4-3-4 9-2 Hakuho Y2 10-1 Kisenosato O1 Goeido 8-3 4-7 Terunofuji O2 The yaku ranks continue to thin out as it was Kakuryu's turn to drop out of the tournament now, though he's unlikely to be missed for the final days given how uncompetitive he had been the last 10 days. That only left Hakuho-Terunofuji as a top-ranker bout for the day, won in patient fashion by the yokozuna. Meanwhile, Goeido and Kisenosato vanquished their maegashira opponents Ikioi and Endo, both making relatively hard work of it. Kisenosato remains the sole leader for now, trailed by one win by Hakuho and low-rankers Takanoiwa, Sokokurai and Ichinojo. Kotoshogiku was the lucky recipient of the Kakuryu freebie, but at 4-7 his survival as ozeki remains in major doubts, what with KK-seeking Tamawashi, Hakuho, perhaps Ikioi and then Terunofuji still to come. Tamawashi was beaten by his nemesis Shohozan today (career H2H 1-10), and his ozekitori chances are now on the ropes - finishing with less than double digits would almost certainly put him back to square one. Komusubi Takayasu prevailed in a potentially crucial bout against sekiwake Shodai, securing his kachikoshi and putting the higher-rank incumbent on the brink of demotion. Maegashira-hitto Mitakeumi is also kachikoshi now, his very first in the meatgrinder, and he may get to force a promotion to komusubi with one more win (and almost certainly would with two). O2 Kotoshogiku 4-7 6-5 Tamawashi S Shodai 4-7 8-3 Takayasu K Tochinoshin 0-6-5 (x) 4-7 Takarafuji M1 Mitakeumi 8-3 4-7 Shohozan M2 Arawashi 4-7 M3 Ikioi 7-4 M4 Endo 5-6 7-4 Takekaze M5 Yoshikaze 5-6 (x) 5-6 Chiyoshoma M6 M7 8-3 Hokutofuji M8 Chiyonokuni 6-5 (x) M9 9-2 Takanoiwa M10 Sokokurai 9-2 M11 M12 M13 Ichinojo 9-2 Kakuryu's withdrawal has thrown the usual Day 13-15 top 4 roundrobin into disarray for good now - Terunofuji has moved into the nominal #4 spot now, but has already faced the top 3 (Hak, Kise and Go). To make amends at least for the last yokozuna standing, Hakuho will now be facing Kotoshogiku on Day 13 instead of Day 12 as originally pencilled in. As for tomorrow: Kisenosato, Goeido, Endo and Ikioi square off again in the other set of ozeki-maegashira pairings, while Kotoshogiku and Terunofuji will have to avoid their makekoshi against Tamawashi and Takekaze, respectively. And down in the maegashira ranks a highlight bout awaits us with Ichinojo-Hokutofuji. The Kokonoe-beya quintet in the top division duplicated their Day 1 feat today, going 0-5 again. The day saw better fortunes for Daishomaru and Sadanoumi who moved within one win of safe shores, and for Kaisei who rediscovered his A/B switch and secured his makuuchi survival with a convincing performance for once. Osunaarashi, on the other hand, was taken out by Ichinojo and will be dropping back to juryo again. We don't have anyone to take the Egyptian's slot yet, but it's only a matter of time despite frontrunner Daieisho's loss today. Ura joined him in KK territory at 8-3 and will be a very likely top division debutant for March. The top 3 options Toyohibiki, Hidenoumi and Kyokushuho all lost on Day 11 and suddenly promotion candidates are a bit thin on the ground again, keeping low-ranked yusho contender Tokushoryu well in the race. (o) 4-7 Kaisei M9 Ishiura 4-7 (1) M10 M11 Nishikigi 4-7 (2) (2) 4-7 Takakeisho M12 Daishomaru 5-6 (1) (2) 4-7 Gagamaru M13 (1) 6-5 Chiyootori M14 Chiyotairyu 5-6 (2) (3) 4-7 Chiyoo M15 Sadanoumi 7-4 (1) (x) 3-8 Osunaarashi M16 --- (3) 5-6 Toyohibiki J1 Hidenoumi 5-6 (3) (3) 6-5 Kyokushuho J2 Daieisho 8-3 (1) (1) 8-3 Ura J3 Chiyomaru 5-6 (4) J4 J5 Onosho 7-4 (3) (~) 6-5 Oyanagi J6 (x) 5-6 Kyokutaisei J7 (3) 9-2 Tokushoryu J8 Tsurugisho 7-4 (~) J9 Amakaze 7-4 (~) J10 (~) 8-3 Homarefuji J11 Kizenryu's record-breaking/setting/maintaining 6th straight demotion back to makushita is in the books now, courtesy of a loss to Ryuden. Wakanoshima, Asahisho and Rikishin lost as well and are in increasing danger of joining him on the way down. Aminishiki and Ryuden made sure to ride on in coloured mawashi, however. Lots of action within the makushita-joi, with no less than three direct matchups: Tochimaru and Daishoho maintained their (not overly big) promotion hopes with their 3rd win each, dooming Asasekiryu and Mugendai to makekoshi, and Fujiazuma achieved his KK at Shiba's expense. Other important bouts saw Toyonoshima move up to 5-1 against top-ranked Kitaharima, and Ishibashi maintain his rensho and yusho hopes against Takayoshitoshi. (1) 2-9 Kitataiki J5 J6 J7 Aminishiki 4-7 (o) J8 J9 (2) 4-7 Amuru J10 Ryuden 6-5 (o) J11 (3) 4-7 Asahisho J12 Rikishin 4-7 (3) (2) 5-6 Terutsuyoshi J13 (4) 4-7 Wakanoshima J14 Kizenryu 3-8 (x) 4-2 Kitaharima Ms1 Asasekiryu 2-4 (x) Ms2 4-2 Fujiazuma Ms3 Tochimaru 3-3 3-3 Daishoho Ms4 Takagenji 4-2 3-3 Shiba Ms5 Mugendai 2-4 (x) Ms6 Toyonoshima 5-1 Ms7 Ishibashi 6-0 We're getting a juryo-makushita crossover bout tomorrow, but it won't have any race implications as they've picked makekoshi Asasekiryu and Kizenryu for it. Edited January 19, 2017 by Asashosakari 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,270 Posted January 19, 2017 (These yusho race updates must be cursed - I pressed Ctrl+Z to reverse a short text change and suddenly I had a copy of the Day 11 sekitori post in here instead. WTF? Well then, trying again...) Juryo yusho race: 9-2 Tokushoryu 8-3 Daieisho, Ura, Homarefuji, Daiamami 7-4 Onosho, Tsurugisho, Amakaze Yesterday's top two already faced off today, with Tokushoryu prevailing over Daieisho to grab the sole lead for the moment. There's no shortage of possible further tests for him, however, with Daiamami coming up tomorrow and Homarefuji also still available (not Ura though - same stable), plus Amakaze from the 7-4's. Lower division yusho races (Day 11 results and links to video where available...nice pattern!): 6-0 Ms7w Ishibashi (Takasago) 5-1 Ms30w Takayoshitoshi (Takanohana) 5-1 Ms39w Takaryu (Kise)6-0 Ms51e Asahiryu (Asahiyama) 6-0 Sd16w Takemasa (Onomatsu) 5-1 Sd20w Kisenoyama (Kise) 5-1 Sd44w Yokuyusei (Shibatayama)6-0 Sd65e Dairaido (Takadagawa) 5-1 Sd77e Oisato (Minezaki)6-0 Sd86w Haruhikari (Oitekaze) 6-0 Jd10e Nishikifuji (Isegahama)6-0 Jd10w Midorifuji (Isegahama) 5-1 Jd34w Kotoseigo (Sadogatake) 5-1 Jd65e Hokutohomare (Hakkaku) 5-1 Jd69w Fujinotani (Hakkaku)6-0 Jd88w Byakkomaru (Tatsunami) 5-1 Jk10w Maeta (Shibatayama) So much for that easy ride to the jonokuchi yusho...Maeta didn't seem to see what was coming and was felled by a couple of vicious strikes by his jonidan-ranked opponent Kinjo. Not pretty to see. It does put the division back in play though; more further down. The two bouts in makushita were won by the guys with arguably the bigger upsides. I hope the schedulers stick to their recent behaviour and give us the straight-up Ishibashi-Asahiryu decider, despite the large difference in rank and the promotion implications for the former. Unheralded collegiate rookie Takemasa and veterans Dairaido and Haruhikari prevailed in sandanme, and it remains to be seen how they'll resolve the odd number of contenders for the final round. In the jonidan race the Isegahama duo moved on and the Hakkaku pair dropped out. The repeat of last basho's 7-0 same-stable playoff isn't quite in the bag yet, though - Nishikifuji just might meet sandanme contender Haruhikari, who would likely provide a decent challenge. In addition, a matchup of either -fuji guy with Byakkomaru would be extremely lopsided with an almost 80-rank difference, so perhaps they'll go for something completely different here. None of the 4-1's in jonokuchi were in action today, so we don't actually know yet who's rejoining Maeta in the race there. The possible candidates: 4-1 Jk2e Dewanosora (Dewanoumi) 4-1 Jk5e Wakayamanaka (Nishonoseki) 4-1 Jk14e Tsunekawa (Arashio) 4-1 Jk16w Wakayama (Onomatsu) 4-1 Jk17e Narutaki (Isenoumi) 4-1 Jk20e Teruju (Isegahama) 4-1 Jk20w Sakurafuji (Isegahama) Dewanosora and the two Isegahama rikishi are facing jonidan opponents, the other four are paired up, so we could have between 2 and 5 rikishi joining Maeta. (Incidentally, that's pretty weird scheduling for the Isegahamas...) 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shimodahito 336 Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/17/2017 at 10:56, orandashoho said: This is the topic for serious analyses of the promotion/demotion chances of rikishi, and it is too soon in the basho to start speculating about that. In sticking with the topic at hand, this is also a thread to discuss the yusho races; and the first poster on this thread's Jonokuchi yusho race speculation remains: 1) Neither of the last undefeated rikishi Narutaki and Maeta may win the yusho; and 2) We could have a wonderful multi-rikishi playoff. Kudos to the main analyzer and table-maker, Asashosakari. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,270 Posted January 19, 2017 (edited) Sweep by the three 4-1 jonokuchi rikishi visiting the jonidan division (results and links to video where available), so the lowest yusho race looks like this for the final round: 5-1 Jk10w Maeta (Shibatayama)5-1 Jk2e Dewanosora (Dewanoumi) 4-2 Jk5e Wakayamanaka (Nishonoseki) 4-2 Jk14e Tsunekawa (Arashio)5-1 Jk16w Wakayama (Onomatsu)5-1 Jk17e Narutaki (Isenoumi)5-1 Jk20e Teruju (Isegahama)5-1 Jk20w Sakurafuji (Isegahama) Or it would have, if Maeta hadn't withdrawn. That leaves us with five contenders - Dewanosora gets sent up into jonidan again, while the others are paired up into Wakayama-Teruju and Narutaki-Sakurafuji. I'd be very surprised if either of the Isegahama rikishi was winning in those... In any case, the need for a playoff is now a certainty. The rest of the yusho deciders are the usual paint-by-numbers stuff, so makushita will be getting its straight shoot-out, while sandanme and jonidan have one 6-0 bout each, with the cross-divisional matchup between Haruhikari and Nishikifuji deciding which division will be getting a playoff. Edited January 21, 2017 by Asashosakari 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryoshishokunin 335 Posted January 19, 2017 Is the relative ordering of the new Jk rikishi (at the same Mz record) ordered by age? (It's hard luck on Nishikifuji to be half a rank up on Midorifuji resulting in an opponent an entire division up the banzuke...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungSumo 93 Posted January 19, 2017 6 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said: Is the relative ordering of the new Jk rikishi (at the same Mz record) ordered by age? (It's hard luck on Nishikifuji to be half a rank up on Midorifuji resulting in an opponent an entire division up the banzuke...) Nishikifuji being half a rank ahead of Midorifuji is probably because of his play-off win over Midorifuji last basho. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,270 Posted January 19, 2017 (edited) 11 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said: Is the relative ordering of the new Jk rikishi (at the same Mz record) ordered by age? I'm not positive, but I think the maezumo rikishi are simply listed in the order that their shisho were signing them up with the Kyokai. In this case that relative order between Nishikifuji and Midorifuji has persisted through their Mz and Jk results. So, Nishikifuji can blame Isegahama-oyakata here. 5 hours ago, YoungSumo said: Nishikifuji being half a rank ahead of Midorifuji is probably because of his play-off win over Midorifuji last basho. They don't care about that in the lower divisions. (Maybe they should.) For an example, see the Jonokuchi playoff from Nagoya 2012, which was won by the guy who was half a rank lower - and he was still half a rank lower on the next banzuke. Edited January 19, 2017 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
