robnplunder

Kadoban watch - Hatsu Basho 2017

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After Day 2:

Kotoshogiku - 1:1, need 7 more wins to retain his Ozeki rank.  Iffy to retain his rank, IMO.

Terunofuji - 0:2, needs 6 more wins to avoid kadoban.   Good thing that he does not face Harumafuji, him being Teru's beya mate. 

Goeido - 1:1, appears to be strong despite a loss.   I don't see much danger.

Kise - 2:0, no chance that he will go kadoban, no way, no how barring a major injury.

 

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1 hour ago, robnplunder said:

After Day 2:

Terunofuji - 0:2, needs 8 more wins to avoid kadoban.   Good thing that he does not face Harumafuji, him being Teru's beya mate. 

Kotoshogiku - 1:1, need 7 more wins to retain his Ozeki rank.  Iffy to retain his rank, IMO.

 

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After day 3:

Kotoshogiku - 2:1, he fought like a demon against 0:3 Tochinoshin.  He did what he had to do, beating a lower ranked opponent.   Good going!  Still has some work to do before facing Ozekis & Yokozunas.  

Terunofuji - 1:2, an easy win against confused Okinoumi.  If the rest of the matches are this easy, he won't go kadoban this time.   But .....  he has not shown much in his 1st 3 bouts.  Things are still looking a little murky. 

Goeido - 1:2, a tough loss to swallow against a lower ranked opponent.   He's in the same boat with Terunofuji.  

Kise - 3:0, kadoban?  What is that?   

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25 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Kise - 3:0, kadoban?  What is that?   

That's the only way to avoid him being on yokozuna run

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Day 4: Things got worse for two Ozeki.   It's becoming a high probability that we will see 3 Ozeki in the next basho.  

Kotoshogiku -  2:2.  I'd guess his chance of losing Ozeki rank is up to 60% or higher or much higher.  

Terunofuji - 1:3.   Continuing with my guess ... his chance of going kadoban is 70% or higher.   He can't hide behind an injury in this basho as he looks healthy.  It's time to put up or shut up.  Another loss on day 5 will be all she wrote.

Goeido -  2:2.   50/50 for him to go kadoban.  

Only an injury will put Kise on a path to kadoban.  I hope he gets a well deserved Yusho but he has to first put down a surging Mitakeumi tomorrow.

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28 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

He can't hide behind an injury in this basho as he looks healthy. 

Terunofuji looking healthy? I see a man who doesn't know any more what to do with his body.

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Kadoban ozeki usually get their 8 wins "somehow" so I won't count them out until I see them having 8 losses.

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10 hours ago, orandashoho said:

Terunofuji looking healthy? I see a man who doesn't know any more what to do with his body.

He looks healthy to me.   What is unhealthy for Teruno is his tendency to allow moro-zashi.  That leads to imbalance.  Imbalance leads to a loss.  Too many losses lead to kadoban.  In trouble, Teruno is.  Left him, the force did. :-)

Edited by robnplunder
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9 hours ago, Harry said:

Kadoban ozeki usually get their 8 wins "somehow" so I won't count them out until I see them having 8 losses.

Good point.  I give Goeido the best chance to go kachi-kosh.  He just needs to draw from his 15-0 yusho form/memory.  Then, I like Koto's chance more than Teruno's. 

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I expect Koto and Goeido will get their KK. I'm not sure about Terunofuji though. Which is weird because he actually looks healthier than last basho but is doing worse.

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Day 5: Things got worse for the same two Ozekis from Day 4.  They both lost to lower ranked rikishi.

Kotoshogiku - 2:3, the only good news is that his future opponents Harumafuji & Terunofuji are either nursing injury and/or off form.   Even if he gets two wins from them, he still has to split the rest (Kise, Hak, Kak, Goeido, ...).   This odd of losing his Ozeki rank went up to 70% or more, IMO.

Terunofuji - 1:4, he is looking worse than Koto and kadoban looks like a sure bet.   

Goido - 3:2, see my comment on Koto going against the 'fuji bros.  He may get two easy wins there.   His odd of avoiding kadoban is looking better than day 4.  

Kise - yusho, yusho, yusho!

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Kotoshogiku will probably retire if / when he loses his Ozeki status or he will try to reclaim it when he is Sekiwake.

Terunofuji should take time off and stop fighting for his Ozeki status. A year or so rest and clawing himself back from top Makushita would be right thing to do for him and his body.

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8 hours ago, Jyuunomori said:

Terunofuji should take time off and stop fighting for his Ozeki status. A year or so rest and clawing himself back from top Makushita would be right thing to do for him and his body.

But if he was so inclined he would have done that a year ago... Maybe when he in fact already has lost his Ozeki-rank he will re-think things. In a way it is amazing that he has been able to retain the rank for so many tournaments, since he looks like completely different wrestler compard to when he won.

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At this point, it is almost a foregone conclusion that Kotoshogiku will lose his Ozeki status.  He has 10 days left to get 6 wins.  If Harumafuji goes kyujo, that means he will only have to face two Yokozunas, neither of whom is likely to lose to him.  That leaves 8 days to get 6 wins.  Among his fellow Ozeki, neither Kisenosato nor Goeido are likely to lose to him (6 days to get 6 wins).  Terunofuji probably won't present much of a challenge.  

But Kotoshogiku has yet to face strong joi wrestlers like Tamawashi and Takayasu, not to mention outstanding performer, Mitakeumi.  The math just doesn't look good for Kotoshogiku.

The amazing thing is that this imminent demotion is coming exactly one year after his first and probably only career Top-Division championship win.  Shades of Baruto, especially if Kotoshogiku decides to retire.

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Day 6:

Kotoshogiku - 2:4, Mitakeumi looked like a future Ozeki, handing the 4th loss to Koto.   We will have 3 Ozeki in the next basho, barring a miracle for Koto.

Terunofuji - 2-4, the remaining opponents won't be as easy as Tochiozan who notched his 5th loss already in this basho.   Teruno's kadoban chance is still very high.

Goeido - 4-2, he has done his job by beating a lower ranked rikishi.  He's not out of the woods yet.

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11 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Terunofuji - 2-4, the remaining opponents won't be as easy as Tochiozan who notched his 5th loss already in this basho.   Teruno's kadoban chance is still very high.

Don't count him out yet. If this was a year and a half ago this would be a no-brainer pick but I'm thinking Terrorfuji beats Mitakeumi tomorrow. Don't know why, just a feeling.

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6 hours ago, orandashoho said:

... and the reason you are not mentioning Kisenosato is that you do not want to jinx him?

Kise has no chance at kadoban.  The "watch" is off for Kise.    I didn't want to jinx him for his yusho.   I say he goes "Goeido" by going zensho yusho.

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2 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Kise has no chance at kadoban.  The "watch" is off for Kise.    I didn't want to jinx him for his yusho.   I say he goes "Goeido" by going zensho yusho.

Well now you jinxed him LOL

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10 hours ago, Harry said:

Well now you jinxed him LOL

Ok, Hakuho is going to zensho yusho.   Hopefully, this evens out things in jinx department.   

Harumafuji pulled out of the tournament which may be a slightly bad news for Kotshogiku to retain his Ozeki ranking.  Instead of hurting Haru, Koto may face a live rikishi.  

 

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9 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Ok, Hakuho is going to zensho yusho.   Hopefully, this evens out things in jinx department.   

Harumafuji pulled out of the tournament which may be a slightly bad news for Kotshogiku to retain his Ozeki ranking.  Instead of hurting Haru, Koto may face a live rikishi.  

 

Can Teru get 5 more wins for his KK before he meets Geek so he could give him a freebie? Goeido? Or they could be meeting him soon, looking at the schedule...

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If Kise is still in contention for the championship, I seriously doubt he will give up a precious shiroboshi to Giku, even if they have a long and friendly history.  Since Giku has already tasted yusho victory, I'm sure he would want Kise to have the same chance.  Kise can always help Giku out in March.

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1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

I'm absolutely sure that Kise will lose to Giku.

The only way that happens is if Hakuho loses 2 and Giku wins all his matches before Kise and Giku meet.

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Kise won't lose on purpose - he'll lose because he's Kise, and always when it matters, and against those he should beat easily - even if Giku is makekoshi by then.

And if I'm that sure, it usually means: 60% likelihood the bout won't take place at all and 30% probability it goes the other way.

Edited by Akinomaki
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