Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Kyushu 2016

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5 minutes ago, John Gunning said:

Four. Shodai is matched up against Ishiura today

Eh? That doesn't change anything.

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Asashosakari;  In the chart above, shouldn't Kw Tamawashi (8-5) and M3w Shodai (10-3) have a (0) after their names since their promotion to Sekiwake is guaranteed? 

Edited by Bumpkin
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20 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Asashosakari;  In the chart above, shouldn't Kw Tamawashi (8-5) and M3w Shodai (10-3) have a (0) after their names since their promotion to Sekitori is guaranteed? 

You're right, Shodai should - I'll add that now. I don't do the positive marker with incumbent komusubi and sekiwake though, because I just consider K/S to be a single four-spot "division", so Tamawashi will stay as is. (That's also why I don't have a special symbol for sekiwake who are in line to drop to komusubi...I used to, but it was more confusing than anything.)

Edited by Asashosakari

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Interesting exchange bouts tomorrow in Juryo.

Kizenryu - Asasekiryu

Daishoho - Asabenkai

 

Oooh...they dropped Kotoshogiku-Kisenosato match tomorrow .

instead, they are going to split the 2 ozeki to test 2 possible sanyaku candidates: Shohozan & Takarafuji.

actually, I think Nihonoseki shipman bucho is trying to pave the way for Shohozan to leapfrog in front of Tochinoshin & Takarafuji for the sanyaku spot.

Edited by rhyen

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1 hour ago, rhyen said:

 

Oooh...they dropped Kotoshogiku-Kisenosato match tomorrow .

instead, they are going to split the 2 ozeki to test 2 possible sanyaku candidates: Shohozan & Takarafuji.

actually, I think Nihonoseki shipman bucho is trying to pave the way for Shohozan to leapfrog in front of Tochinoshin & Takarafuji for the sanyaku spot.

 

No need for any leap frogging. Takarafuji has 9 wins already. I think even with a loss they would promote him over a 10 win M6. Tochinoshin has 0 chance at a sanyaku slot IMO. I think Takyasu will beat Terunofuji too saving his sanyaku slot. If Endo beats Tamawashi and Takarafuji loses I think they will give him the final sanyaku slot at M3 8-7 with a special prize and a kinboshi over a 9-6 M5.

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11 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I hope to see him in Juryo soon so I can call him Asayamabanana

All-slippiotoshi zensho yusho!

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Day 14 (results, text-only results):

    11-3  Harumafuji   Y1   Kakuryu     13-1
    10-4  Hakuho       Y2
     9-5  Goeido       O1   Kisenosato  11-3
     4-10 Kotoshogiku  O2   Terunofuji   8-6

And that's all she wrote - far from the promised exciting free-for-all finish, the last two days have conspired to give us a Day 14 yusho instead, the first one achieved by yokozuna Kakuryu in his overall 3rd championship. The assist goes to Hakuho who took out pursuer Harumafuji in a very un-Hakuho-like bout to create a two-win cushion after Kakuryu's victory over Goeido. The third top-ranker bout of the day saw Kisenosato vanquish Terunofuji in a power bout; Kise has a shot at jun-yusho now, potentially even with a respectable 12-3 score, but I'd be rather surprised if that leads to any tsunatori talk for January.

Takayasu is still hanging in there, today beating Chiyonokuni to improve to 6-8. There's still quite a race for two sanyaku spots, featuring Takayasu along with no less than five maegashira contenders. Endo missed a major opportunity today with a loss to already-MK Tochiozan, and even has to worry about his own kachikoshi now. As he's the only candidate who faced the full joi and the other four are all sanyaku semi-regulars, I would guess that any decision not involving Endo will come down to a straight-up calculation based on the usual two-ranks-per-win approach.

     6-8  Takayasu     S    Okinoumi     4-10 (x)
(x)  5-9  Mitakeumi    K    Tamawashi    9-5

                       M1
                       M2
     7-7  Endo         M3   Shodai      11-3  (o)
                       M4
     8-6  Shohozan     M5   Takarafuji   9-5
                       M6   Tochinoshin  9-5
                       M7
                       M8   Ikioi       10-4


In a bit of a weird decision they've chosen to scrap tomorrow's scheduled Kisenosato-Kotoshogiku matchup to pair them up with Takarafuji and Shohozan instead. I'm not opposed to the idea per se, but IMHO splitting up Terunofuji-Takayasu would have made more sense. Elsewhere it's Endo against Tamawashi, Tochinoshin versus Ishiura and Ikioi facing Sokokurai.


Hidenoumi was at the wrong end of one of the stranger knockouts I've ever seen in Ozumo (and I hope he didn't twist any knees or ankles on the way down), and is probably headed to juryo now. Toyohibiki lost his tough-luck matchup with higher-ranked Takarafuji and is nominally demotable as well, but holds a much better relative position than Hidenoumi and could well survive if he wins tomorrow. Chiyotairyu was also a Day 14 loser; he would definitely be safe with win #7 tomorrow, but just might be able to survive even on his current six wins. In more positive news we finally saw a Sadanoumi victory again after 7 straight defeats, keeping his survival hopes alive (and he too might actually be safe already), and bottom-ranked Gagamaru is outright kachikoshi after beating compatriot Tochinoshin.

The juryo side of this equation has turned into the customary mess again, as we're rapidly running out of contenders. It's already certain that Sato will be the only rikishi with a "proper" promotable record, and only Chiyoo (won today) and Ura (lost to Sato) would even look halfway respectable after a senshuraku victory. Chiyomaru is definitely staying in juryo for the 10th straight basho after he was MK'ed by sekitori returnee Yamaguchi today.

(1)  3-11 Sadanoumi    M8
                       M9
                       M10
(x)  2-12 Kyokushuho   M11
                       M12
(x)  4-10 Hidenoumi    M13
                       M14  Chiyotairyu  6-8  (1)
                       M15  Toyohibiki   6-8  (~)
(o)  8-6  Gagamaru     M16  ---

(x)  6-8  Chiyomaru    J1
                       J2   Chiyoo       7-7  (~)
                       J3   Sato        11-3  (o)
(~~) 7-7  Onosho       J4   Daieisho     7-7 (~~)
(~)  8-6  Ura          J5
(~) 9-4-1 Osunaarashi  J6
                       ...
                       J11  Seiro       11-3  (~)
                       J12  Oyanagi     11-3 (~~)

Yes, the double tilde stands for "possible, but really freakin' questionable". Things are so bad that Osunaarashi might end up as the second-best candidate despite missing the last three days. Anyway, no matchups between any of the respective candidates in either division, unless you want to count Chiyoo-Oyanagi, and I despair for any scenario in which Oyanagi might actually get promoted from J12 with just 12 wins.

Might as well squeeze the juryo yusho race in here: It's a three-way battle now after Seiro's one-win lead was vapourized by Oyanagi in a pretty good showing, allowing the latter and Sato to catch up at 11-3. As mentioned before they could have done either Sato-Seiro or Sato-Oyanagi for tomorrow - they've gone for the first choice, with Oyanagi getting the aforementioned 7-7 Chiyoo instead. That bout is actually going second (thanks to Chiyoo's high rank), so Oyanagi will already know who his potential playoff opponent would be.


Daishoho fell at the hands of Tokushoryu today and will probably be joining fellow debutant Meisei on the way back to juryo now. His only hope is for Kitaharima and/or Asasekiryu to finish even worse; these two both lost today as well, Kitaharima to Chiyoo and Asasekiryu to the basho's first makushita visitor Sakamoto. (Personal note: I was convinced that if there's anyone who could end Sakamoto's interminable 4-3 streak, it's Asasekiryu...) At any rate, Sakamoto is definitely headed up to the paid ranks now as somebody will be sent down to make room for him, even if it's a relatively marginal demotion such as Daishoho with 6 wins.

(1)  4-10 Kitaharima   J9   Asasekiryu   4-10 (1)
                       J10
                       J11
(~)  5-9  Daishoho     J12
                       J13  Sadanofuji   2-12 (x)
                       J14  Meisei       5-9  (x)
   
(o)  5-1  Rikishin     Ms1  Sakamoto     4-3  (o)
     3-3  Wakanoshima  Ms2  Kizenryu     3-3
                       Ms3  Asabenkei    3-3
     4-2  Fujiazuma    Ms4  Tochimaru    4-3
                       Ms5  Kairyu       4-2
                       ...
                       Ms9  Terutsuyoshi 7-0  (o)

The remaining 3-3 trio are all getting to taste juryo air tomorrow, which is just as well, considering we do have the same number of demotion candidates to put them against. The matches have been scheduled in ranking order (whether intentionally or not, I have no idea) so it'll be Kitaharima-Wakanoshima, Asasekiryu-Kizenryu and Daishoho-Asabenkei. Fujiazuma and Kairyu will play off for a 5-2 record as expected, and especially Fujiazuma could be laughing all the way to the kesho here as he'd be the nominal #4 promotion candidate with a win, ahead of all the possible 4-3's we could get tomorrow.

Edit: Looking at it some more, given the way they have scheduled the three exchange bouts I think Daishoho is already toast. A win by him tomorrow would only take out the lowest-ranked of the three 3-3 contenders, while the Kitaharima/Asasekiryu loss he needs would create an additional promotion candidate at Ms2, which is probably high enough to force down Daishoho anyway.

Edited by Asashosakari
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2 hours ago, Rocks said:

No need for any leap frogging. Takarafuji has 9 wins already. I think even with a loss they would promote him over a 10 win M6. Tochinoshin has 0 chance at a sanyaku slot IMO. I think Takyasu will beat Terunofuji too saving his sanyaku slot. If Endo beats Tamawashi and Takarafuji loses I think they will give him the final sanyaku slot at M3 8-7 with a special prize and a kinboshi over a 9-6 M5.

But would they put a 9-6 Shohozan ahead of 9-6 Takarafuji, 10-5 Tochinoshin (assuming Takayasu is demoted with a 6-9)?

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1 hour ago, rhyen said:

But would they put a 9-6 Shohozan ahead of 9-6 Takarafuji, 10-5 Tochinoshin (assuming Takayasu is demoted with a 6-9)?

At that point Shohhzan would have a win over an Ozeki which Takarafuji would not, so despite the same record yes he gets it I think. If everybody, including Takyasu, but Endo and Tockinoshin loses tomorrow I could see them putting Tochi in the extra slot opened up by the Takyasu loss. If Takarafuji was a young stud who had never been sanyaku though I think he would get it. 

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Osunaarashi may very well be in line to get promoted, but I'm sure that they'll exclude him if it's at all possible.  That would require Toyohibiki and one of Ura, Chiyoo, or Seiro winning, or two of the latter three winning if Toyohibiki loses.  Seems reasonably likely, but not all that assured.  If that doesn't happen, he'd be in line for promotion number-wise, but they could give it to Oyanagi or Daieisho if they win.  If Chiyoo beats Oyanagi and the rest of the mentioned rikishi lose though, well, I think they'll still come up with something, like promoting Seiro or Ura despite their losses.

edit: They might also keep Hidenoumi if he wins his last match.

Edited by Gurowake

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I agree with Asashosakari's edit about Daishoho.  Given that he's getting the lowest ranked of the contenders and his already demotable record, when I saw the match I just wrote it off as a future Makushitan vs. returning Makushitan to settle the top few Ms spots, not as one that had any bearing on Juryo.  The other two crossover matches are straight exchange matches.

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29 minutes ago, ALAKTORN said:

@Asashosakari don’t you mean the 2nd one achieved by yokozuna Kakuryū?

"First one" referred to Day 14 yusho, not to yusho won as yokozuna.

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Are we sure J12e Daishoho (5-9) is already toast?  Are we sure Ms1w Sakamoto (4-3) is promoted?  If Ms9e Kitaharima (4-10) and Ms9w Asasekiryu (4-10) and Daishoho all win than they could keep Daishoho in Juryo over the turtle urh Sakamoto.

Edited by Bumpkin

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9 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

And that's all she wrote - far from the promised exciting free-for-all finish, the last two days have conspired to give us a Day 14 yusho instead, the first one achieved by yokozuna Kakuryu in his overall 3rd championship. The assist goes to Hakuho who took out pursuer Harumafuji in a very un-Hakuho-like bout to create a two-win cushion after Kakuryu's victory over Goeido.

For Kisenosato to have any chance of yusho-playoff, Hakuho must defeat Harumafuji and Goeindou defeat Kakuryu.  Hakuho did his job but Goeindou didn't, resulting in Kakuryu's day-14 yusho. Is that right?

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1 hour ago, Dapeng said:

For Kisenosato to have any chance of yusho-playoff, Hakuho must defeat Harumafuji and Goeindou defeat Kakuryu.  Hakuho did his job but Goeindou didn't, resulting in Kakuryu's day-14 yusho. Is that right?

Yes.

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3 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Are we sure J12e Daishoho (5-9) is already toast?  Are we sure Ms1w Sakamoto (4-3) is promoted?  If Ms9e Kitaharima (4-10) and Ms9w Asasekiryu (4-10) and Daishoho all win than they could keep Daishoho in Juryo over the turtle urh Sakamoto.

Absolutely. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=2&form1_rank=J12e&form1_wins=6&form1_losses=9&form1_year=1950-2016

The times the juryo rank was saved they we're already promoting 4-3s from like Ms5, 9 loses from J12 by the numbers is J15, which obviously doesn't exist.

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1 hour ago, Sumozumo said:

Absolutely. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=2&form1_rank=J12e&form1_wins=6&form1_losses=9&form1_year=1950-2016

The times the juryo rank was saved they we're already promoting 4-3s from like Ms5, 9 loses from J12 by the numbers is J15, which obviously doesn't exist.

 True but Daishoho is J12 EAST.  It might make a difference, might not. He has to win his last bout to finish 6-9. 

Edited by Bumpkin

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2 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

 True but Daishoho is J12 EAST.  It might make a difference, might not. He has to win his last bout to finish 6-9. 

Yeah, the query is specifically for J12e. And I'm assuming a win because if he loses then its doubly no question he gets demoted.

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3 hours ago, Sumozumo said:

Absolutely. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=2&form1_rank=J12e&form1_wins=6&form1_losses=9&form1_year=1950-2016

The times the juryo rank was saved they we're already promoting 4-3s from like Ms5, 9 loses from J12 by the numbers is J15, which obviously doesn't exist.

Do keep in mind that juryo only went down to J13 for the longest time, so for up to 2003 the relevant comparison is J11e.

That being said, Ms1/Ms2 4-3 is really a no-doubter exchange here. Ms3 would be more tricky, but the schedulers have precluded that possibility completely by the way they've matched up the candidates this time.

Edited by Asashosakari

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So the promotion order will be Sato, Chiyoo, Daieisho/Osunaarashi?

Edited by rhyen

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