Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Kyushu 2016

[Asashosakari 18,158]

Sorry about the delay, got knocked offline by my ISP for most of Sunday.

Day 15 (results, text-only results):

    11-4  Harumafuji   Y1   Kakuryu     14-1
    11-4  Hakuho       Y2
     9-6  Goeido       O1   Kisenosato  12-3
     5-10 Kotoshogiku  O2   Terunofuji   8-7

In the end it's an impressive 14-1 championship for Kakuryu, two wins ahead of second place which was taken in sole fashion by ozeki Kisenosato due to losses by Harumafuji in the musubi no ichiban and by Shodai earlier in the session. Tsuna-seeking Goeido finished short of double-digit wins, and Kotoshogiku will be taking over Terunofuji's place as kadoban ozeki.

Sekiwake Takayasu completed his weekend damage control, improving from 4-8 to 7-8 to keep himself in sanyaku for the next basho. Gino-sho winner Tamawashi and kanto-sho recipient Shodai will take over duties at sekiwake (as we'd known for a few days already, of course), while Takayasu should be joined by Tochinoshin at komusubi - unfavourable treatment or not, it would be very hard to justify putting Takarafuji ahead of him and I don't think the majority of the judging committee will go for that solution. Endo would have made for a more tricky choice, but he ended up makekoshi at Tamawashi's hands, also missing out on the shukun-sho in the process, and Ikioi and Shohozan also failed to win on senshuraku.

     7-8  Takayasu     S    Okinoumi     5-10 (x)
(x)  6-9  Mitakeumi    K    Tamawashi   10-5

                       M1
                       M2
(x)  7-8  Endo         M3   Shodai      11-4  (o)
                       M4
     8-7  Shohozan     M5   Takarafuji   9-6
                       M6   Tochinoshin 10-5  (o)
                       M7
                       M8   Ikioi       10-5

Chiyotairyu made certain of his non-demotion with victory over disappointing Nishikigi, while Toyohibiki wasn't so fortunate and lost to Chiyoshoma - he'll be very hard to keep in the top division with just 6 wins from the second-lowest spot. Sadanoumi also lost on the final day but is in a somewhat better relative position.

Chiyoo was another Kokonoe-beya rikishi with a successful Day 15 as he clinched the last-minute kachikoshi, denying his opponent Oyanagi a potential yusho playoff against Sato who had grabbed his 12th win against Seiro two bouts before. As a result of all that Sato won the yusho outright and Chiyoo will be joining him as a makuuchi debutant next basho.

Things are a bit more murky after that. Kyokushuho, Hidenoumi and Toyohibiki should be impossible to keep, so at least one more promotee will have to be found, and the choice is arguably limited to Daieisho and Osunaarashi. The loser of that decision will find himself compared to Sadanoumi, and I daresay the makuuchi incumbent will have the edge there, leaving us with just three exchanges. I'm inclined to give the nod to Osunaarashi for slot #3, but given his doghouse status in recent banzuke-making sessions it's definitely not a sure thing.

(?)  3-12 Sadanoumi    M8
                       M9
                       M10
(x)  3-12 Kyokushuho   M11
                       M12
(x)  4-11 Hidenoumi    M13
                       M14  Chiyotairyu  7-8  (o)
                       M15  Toyohibiki   6-9  (x)
                       M16  ---

                       J1
                       J2   Chiyoo       8-7  (o)
                       J3   Sato        12-3  (o)
(x)  7-8  Onosho       J4   Daieisho     8-7  (?)
(~)  8-7  Ura          J5
(?) 9-4-2 Osunaarashi  J6
                       ...
                       J11  Seiro       11-4  (x)
                       J12  Oyanagi     11-4  (x)

The exchange bout treble in lower juryo saw victories by all three visitors from makushita, making the exchanges a pretty straight-forward deal here in the end: Kitaharima, Asasekiryu, Daishoho, Sadanofuji and Meisei are all well short of safe win totals, and the top 4 makushita rikishi Rikishin, Sakamoto, Wakanoshima and Kizenryu plus yusho winner Terutsuyoshi are also the clear first five in the promotion queue. Fujiazuma could have made things more interesting with a 5th win, but he was beaten by Kairyu.

(x)  4-11 Kitaharima   J9   Asasekiryu   4-11 (x)
                       J10
                       J11
(x)  5-10 Daishoho     J12
                       J13  Sadanofuji   2-13 (x)
                       J14  Meisei       5-9  (x)
   
(o)  6-1  Rikishin     Ms1  Sakamoto     4-3  (o)
(o)  4-3  Wakanoshima  Ms2  Kizenryu     4-3  (o)
                       Ms3  Asabenkei    4-3
     4-3  Fujiazuma    Ms4  Tochimaru    4-3
                       Ms5  Kairyu       5-2
                       ...
                       Ms9  Terutsuyoshi 7-0  (o)

That'll mean three sekitori debuts at once, the most since Haru 2015, and all by fairly promising rikishi. (And Kizenryu may be extending his all-time record in immediate demotions even further...) Daishoho and Meisei are headed back down to makushita right after their juryo debuts, while the other demotions are hitting two long-tenured sekitori, with Asasekiryu losing his spot after 86 tournaments (almost 15 years!) and Sadanofuji after 37 consecutive and 39 total. Kitaharima is a bit more used to it, this being his 5th demotion to makushita, but does crash down just four months after being up in makuuchi this time.

As Gurowake already noted, the next juryo banzuke looks like it'll be an utter mess - there will be some lucky rikishi ending up in the J1-3 zone, but from J4 all the way down to about Ms6 everything will be extremely crowded.

The final words are reserved for yesterday's pair of lower division playoffs, in which returning ex-komusubi Jokoryu won his second sandanme yusho over newcomer Asahiryu, and Ogasawara prevailed over Isegahama stablemate Ihara for the jonokuchi title.

As always, thanks for reading and participating! 

[Asashosakari 18,158]

Final ex-sekitori records for Kyushu 2016:

4-3 Ms2e  Wakanoshima (Shibatayama, 32, 1)
4-3 Ms2w  Kizenryu (Kise, 31, 1)
4-3 Ms3w  Asabenkei (Takasago, 27, 1)
4-3 Ms4e  Fujiazuma (Tamanoi, 29, 1)
2-5 Ms5e  Shimanoumi (Kise, 27, 2)

4-3 Ms7w  Toyonoshima (Tokitsukaze, 33, 1)
1-6 Ms10e Higonojo (Kise, 32, 15)
3-4 Ms11w Sakigake (Shibatayama, 30, 11)
3-4 Ms12e Dewahayate (Dewanoumi, 27, 2)
3-4 Ms15e Nionoumi (Yamahibiki, 29, 20)
3-4 Ms15w Tokushinho (Kise, 32, 6)

4-3 Ms18e Tenkaiho (Onoe, 32, 3)
6-1 Ms19e Shotenro (Fujishima, 34, 4)
4-3 Ms20e Tochihiryu (Kasugano, 29, 11)
3-4 Ms21e Sotairyu (Tokitsukaze, 34, 10)
5-2 Ms21w Akiseyama (Kise, 31, 3)
1-6 Ms23w Kotomisen (Sadogatake, 33, 18)
1-6 Ms25w Sagatsukasa (Irumagawa, 34, 16)
3-4 Ms27e Hishofuji (Azumazeki, 27, 31)
4-3 Ms28w Abi (Shikoroyama, 22, 7)
3-4 Ms32w Takaryu (Kise, 24, 8)
5-2 Ms36w Oiwato (Hakkaku, 35, 18)
6-1 Ms40w Kagamio (Kagamiyama, 28, 3)
5-2 Ms49w Dewaotori (Dewanoumi, 31, 60)
3-4 Ms57w Hitenryu (Tatsunami, 32, 31)

6-1 Sd7w  Chiyoarashi (Kokonoe, 25, 20)
5-2 Sd9w  Keitenkai (Onomatsu, 26, 25)
4-3 Sd17w Masakaze (Oguruma, 33, 24)
7-0 Sd23w Jokoryu (Kise, 28, 3)
6-1 Sd28w Yoshiazuma (Tamanoi, 39, 13)
5-2 Sd36w Kaonishiki (Azumazeki, 38, 31)

6-1 Jd11e Masunoyama (Chiganoura, 26, 10)
6-1 Jd29w Dairaido (Takadagawa, 36, 61)

[ryafuji 802]

On ‎11‎/‎23‎/‎2016 at 08:39, Yubinhaad said:

Takasago-beya's 138-year presence in the sekitori ranks is in real peril this basho. Asasekiryu stands at 2-9 and really needs to win three of his last four to make sure of his place. Asabenkei can still get kachi-koshi but depending on other results that might not be enough to earn him a return to Juryo.

And that's exactly what's happened. Asasekiryu at 4-11 is a goner, and Asabenkei's 4-3 is not going to be enough. I remember that Toki's car accident and subsequent 1 basho ban back in 2000 ended Takasago's ever-present makuuchi record - now no sekitori at all.

Edited November 28, 2016 by ryafuji
typos

[shumitto 418]

3 hours ago, ryafuji said:

And that's exactly what's happened. Asasekiryu at 4-11 is a goner, and Asabenkei's 4-3 is not going to be enough. I remember that Toki's car accident and subsequent 1 basho ban back in 2000 ended Takasago's ever-present makuuchi record - now no sekitori at all.

I must say I saw that coming. Back in the late 2000's Asashoryu was one of the best overall and the best in the heya. Besides him only Asasekiryu and veteran Kimenryu in makushita. Since then the recruiting has been very bad, including night club skinny Asayamashita, some heavyweights with little perspective (Asaueno, Asanishimura) and a few others just to fill the dohyo and the banzuke. It is no surprise that the heya has gotten to this point.

Down the ranks Ishibashi is probably their biggest asset and hope of a future makuuchi rikishi.

[Kintamayama 43,585]

44 minutes ago, shumitto said:

night club skinny Asayamashita, some heavyweights with little perspective (Asaueno, Asanishimura) and a few others just to fill the dohyo and the banzuke. It is no surprise that the heya has gotten to this point.

Down the ranks Ishibashi is probably their biggest asset and hope of a future makuuchi rikishi.

Quote

 

Don't forget Asayamabanana. He already has one yusho under his scalp.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Kintamayama

[robnplunder 974]

Akiseyama stopped his losing make-koshi streak. 

Saw Masunoyama's old sumo clips and he looked really good back then, a rising star. 

[dingo 996]

Masunoyama never looked like a star when he was in Makuuchi. He looked like a lower maegashira, for a short while. But not a star. 

[robnplunder 974]

If Ternofuji wasn't protected by Ozeki ranking, he could be in juryo, or bottom of Makuuchi division in Kyushu 2016 basho.  Hopefully, he is in full recovery from injury going forward.

[Bumpkin 438]

18 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

If Ternofuji wasn't protected by Ozeki ranking, he could be in juryo, or bottom of Makuuchi division in Kyushu 2016 basho.  Hopefully, he is in full recovery from injury going forward.

I disagree. If Terunofuji were not an Ozeki, he would yo-yo between mid Maegashira (10+ wins/sansho) and Sekiwake (occasional mk).

Edited November 29, 2016 by Bumpkin

[robnplunder 974]

22 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

I disagree. If Terunofuji were not an Ozeki, he would yo-yo between mid Maegashira (10+ wins/sansho) and Sekiwake (occasional mk).

Sorry, I wasn't clear.    I was going by his record in 2016.  He had 3-12 (would have sent him to  mid/upper Makuuchi), followed by 8-7 (up 1), 2-13 (to low Makuuchi), 8-7 (still low Makuuchi), 4-11 (M16 or in juryo), 8-7 (back in Makuuchi).    He make-koshi'd 3 times only with 3, 2, and 4 wins.   Each time, he came back only with 8-7 basho.

Edited November 29, 2016 by robnplunder

[Asojima 2,855]

7 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Sorry, I wasn't clear.    I was going by his record in 2016.  He had 3-12 (would have sent him to  mid/upper Makuuchi), followed by 8-7 (up 1), 2-13 (to low Makuuchi), 8-7 (still low Makuuchi), 4-11 (M16 or in juryo), 8-7 (back in Makuuchi).    He make-koshi'd 3 times only with 3, 2, and 4 wins.   Each time, he came back only with 8-7 basho.

He inexplicably failed to take advantage of his non-kadoban status to sit out his disastrous bashos, and he had a few gimmes to escape demotion when he was kadoban. His injury management has been  terrible.

[Unkonoyama 104]

On 11/27/2016 at 13:07, Kintamayama said:

I of course expect to see each and every one of you entering GTB this time, the off-basho game that really matters..

I always do, I am the Hattorizakura of GTB.  

Back on topic, I am glad Toyonoshima got his KK!  I am still catching up with the lower division videos, hopefully he was moving around ok.  Also, thank you very much to Asashosakari as always for this informative thread.  

[Bumpkin 438]

1 hour ago, robnplunder said:

Sorry, I wasn't clear.    I was going by his record in 2016.  He had 3-12 (would have sent him to  mid/upper Makuuchi), followed by 8-7 (up 1), 2-13 (to low Makuuchi), 8-7 (still low Makuuchi), 4-11 (M16 or in juryo), 8-7 (back in Makuuchi).    He make-koshi'd 3 times only with 3, 2, and 4 wins.   Each time, he came back only with 8-7 basho.

If Terunofuji were ranked low Makuuchi, he would of faced much easier opponents and, hence, would of yo-yoed between mid Maegashira and Sekiwake.

[Kintamayama 43,585]

1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

If Terunofuji were ranked low Makuuchi, he would of faced much easier opponents and, hence, would of yo-yoed between mid Maegashira and Sekiwake.

I don't think he would of.

[Bumpkin 438]

50 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I don't think he would of.

What?!  You don't believe he'd be low Maegashira-Juryo, do you?

[Benihana 1,872]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

I don't think he would of.

Do you think he would have? 

[robnplunder 974]

5 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

If Terunofuji were ranked low Makuuchi, he would of faced much easier opponents and, hence, would of yo-yoed between mid Maegashira and Sekiwake.

Ok, that argument has merit.   Perhaps, he'd go up and down the Makuuchi division but not fall as low as juryo.  

[Churaumi 707]

8 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

I disagree. If Terunofuji were not an Ozeki, he would yo-yo between mid Maegashira (10+ wins/sansho) and Sekiwake (occasional mk).

Part of sumo is being blessed with the body to take the punishment of training and competition, or know when to strategically sit down. A healthy Terunofuji might well have made well on his goal of making yokozuna this year. Sadly, he broke down and is in the same club with other rikishi like Baruto who could have achieved more than the already stratospheric heights they attained if they only had the bodies for it. I say "stratospheric heights" since slightly over 1% of rikishi are ozeki or yokozuna at the moment.

[Kintamayama 43,585]

10 hours ago, Benihana said:

Do you think he would have? 

Probably..

[Gurowake 3,791]

Chiyoo, Chiyotairyu, and Chiyootori will suffer to some extent in the next basho being from the some heya and ranked near the bottom of the division.  Coupled with two other members of their heya in the mid-maegashira area, they will almost certainly face higher-ranked opponents on average than those ranked near them.  Maybe they'll get lucky and get more Juryo matches to make up for it.

[Bumpkin 438]

Juryo matches?

[Gurowake 3,791]

3 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Juryo matches?

When they put low maegashira against high juryo rikishi.  Usually because there's an odd number of makuuchi rikishi participating, but usually they do at least a few at the end of the tournament if never forced to earlier.  This past basho was strange in that regard in not having any.

[Bumpkin 438]

I know.  I posted because there were none in November.

[Rocks 1,799]

On 11/28/2016 at 06:03, Asashosakari said:

Things are a bit more murky after that. Kyokushuho, Hidenoumi and Toyohibiki should be impossible to keep, so at least one more promotee will have to be found, and the choice is arguably limited to Daieisho and Osunaarashi. The loser of that decision will find himself compared to Sadanoumi, and I daresay the makuuchi incumbent will have the edge there, leaving us with just three exchanges. I'm inclined to give the nod to Osunaarashi for slot #3, but given his doghouse status in recent banzuke-making sessions it's definitely not a sure thing.

I think this is right except I think they give the 3rd slot to Daieisho over Osunaarashi. I think this even more given the fact Osunaarashi finished injured. I put this down to Rank, J4>J6 and injury than any doghouse status. 

[Amamaniac 2,066]

I apologize if this is not the right thread for this comment. I am new to Sumo Forum and would just like to reach out to those members who are more knowledgeable and in touch with current developments in sumo.

News on Wednesday revealed that 12 wrestlers from the Oitekaze Stable have announced their retirements after the Kyushu Tournament.  According to stats from May 2014 (Wiki), there were a total of 18 wrestlers in that stable.  The fact that 12 have called it quits at the same time sounds fishy to me.  Does anyone know if there has been an incident at that stable to provoke the mass exodus?