Basho Talk - Kyushu Basho 2016 ** (SPOILERS)

[Dapeng 232]

28 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

The last time he lost 9 bouts in two consecutive basho were 2006-2007.  He was Sekiwake at the time.  Can he recover from the last two basho?  Sure he can.   Can he decline further from here?   Sure he can.   Can he remain an average Yokozuna?   Sure he can.   It's hard to tell from the last two basho.   If he turns in another or two 10-5 or 11-4, I would believe his best has left him.  Until then, the jury is still out.   Injury can explain 10-5, two basho ago.   Lack of preparation due to recovering from injury can explain this basho's 11-4.   He'd have very little excuse in the next basho.   

He has passed his peak for sure. All the current ozeki (except Terunofuji) and Yokozuna are 30 year's old or older. All of them may retire in 2-3 years. Hakuho, as the former Kitanoumi once said, may finish his rikishi career with about 40 makuuchi yusho. 

[Kintamayama 44,345]

10 hours ago, rzombie1988 said:

 

- Takanohana was also a god-tier yokozuna and doesn't fully get the credit he deserves. History is going to be very kind to him someday.

-

Oh, he does. He gets full credit and more. He is a demi-God in Japan. You can't get much more credit than that.

- Kaiho's and Akebono's numbers got screwed due to them being injured and out so often.

Kaihou was kicked out of sumo.

 

Edited November 29, 2016 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 18,783]

Takanohana being underrated is certainly a novel idea. I'm pretty sure most people who look at more than just his win-loss and yusho numbers feel that the opposite is the case. If he hadn't enjoyed such a massive heya advantage he might well have won fewer yusho than Akebono and Musashimaru did.

[Jojo 11]

9 hours ago, Morty said:

I did something similar to this a while ago (but without a spreadsheet - I jotted some notes down with a pencil) but I left out any basho where a rikishi went Kyujo. Pretty much the same result - there was Hakuho, then daylight, then everyone else. I also got the same result that Kise was easily Yokozona level in his average wins etc, but was without a yusho like the rest. I saw a clear difference between Yokozunae and Ozeki, in that the Yoks all (including Futahaguro) were at least 1.5 wins on average better than the Ozeki. It also made it clear that statistically, both Kak and HF were clearly Yok level in their results, though near the bottom of the curve rather than the top.

Yep, mostly (if not totally) agree with this... The kyujo basho give a somewhat "false" representation, if only because the rules have changed...

Something I also check is the percentage of fights (and win ratio) against maegashira wrestlers because it gives an idea of the "dominance factor" and and also an indication (sometimes quite flawed admittedly) of the strength of the field, in absolute or relative terms (meaning a single Yokozuna with a couple of Ozeki will face a lot more Maegashira; and in relative terms the Akebono vs Taka/Waka).

On thing I noticed is that since Harumafuji became a Yokozuna his record vs Kisenosato is very even, in face to face matches and in terms of basho finishes (how many times each have a better record than the other, or even..) and I think Kisenosato actually has a better record against maegashira than Harumafuji (think 1.3 losses per basho on average with Harumafuji at 1.4)... Needless to say Kisenosato is missing the spikes that would have given him a Yusho or more!

 

 

[Jojo 11]

12 hours ago, rzombie1988 said:

 

- Takanohana was also a god-tier yokozuna and doesn't fully get the credit he deserves. History is going to be very kind to him someday.

-

Oh, he does. He gets full credit and more. He is a demi-God in Japan. You can't get much more credit than that.

- Kaiho's and Akebono's numbers got screwed due to them being injured and out so often.

Kaihou was kicked out of sumo.

Pretty sure he means Taiho there... No? 1961...

 

[Akinomaki 39,755]

18 hours ago, ryafuji said:

I'm not sure why you felt the need to "translate" what Moriya said. Seems crystal-clear to me. Kisenosato will not get promoted next time even if he wins the yusho, because his performance in this tournament wasn't good enough. Why should we doubt what he says? Can you point me to an example when the YDC said they wouldn't promote someone, and then did?

They didn't say they would never promote him - just not with simply a yusho - perhaps with a 15-0, just like Nishonoseki had implied (translate: definitely, but it is something impossible for him). They changed the level they saw as necessary for Kisenosato all the time from just after a basho to just before the next basho, as did the shimpan department or the riji-cho - and even during the basho.

Because the example is Kisenosato, who never yet won 14 or reached a play-off, they never even had a remote chance to promote him in spite of having said 2 months earlier that they wouldn't. Still it appears they have a special treatment and rules just for him - or rather, in ozumo the rules are extremely flexible: decisions can be based on a multitude of factors.

[Dapeng 232]

39 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

They didn't say they would never promote him - just not with simply a yusho - perhaps with a 15-0, just like Nishonoseki had implied (translate: definitely, but it is something impossible for him). They changed the level they saw as necessary for Kisenosato all the time from just after a basho to just before the next basho, as did the shimpan department or the riji-cho - and even during the basho.

Because the example is Kisenosato, who never yet won 14 or reached a play-off, they never even had a remote chance to promote him in spite of having said 2 months earlier that they wouldn't. Still it appears they have a special treatment and rules just for him - or rather, in ozumo the rules are extremely flexible: decisions can be based on a multitude of factors.

Actually, the standard for promoting yokozuna has been quite consistent: two consecutive yusho as ozeki. There were exceptions of one yusho promotion (e.g. Kakuryu),  and even non-yusho promotion (Futahaguro). There were also two yusho without promotion. 

I remember the very popular Takahanada was not promoted even after four yusho, and remained not promoted until he got two consecutive yusho. 

[robnplunder 974]

10 hours ago, Dapeng said:

He has passed his peak for sure. All the current ozeki (except Terunofuji) and Yokozuna are 30 year's old or older. All of them may retire in 2-3 years. Hakuho, as the former Kitanoumi once said, may finish his rikishi career with about 40 makuuchi yusho. 

Yokozunas will likely retire first.   They can't stop aging and will be forced to retire when they can't perform at Yokozuna level.   Ozeki can continue with their career if they so choose.    But I look forward to who will take over these 30 something rikishis who will be retiring or off their peak.   Shodai, Endo, Mitakeumi, and other young pubs should be in the mix.

[Suwihuto 125]

39 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Yokozunas will likely retire first.   They can't stop aging and will be forced to retire when they can't perform at Yokozuna level.   Ozeki can continue with their career if they so choose.    But I look forward to who will take over these 30 something rikishis who will be retiring or off their peak.   Shodai, Endo, Mitakeumi, and other young pubs should be in the mix.

Yes, it feels like exciting times coming up. For the first time since I rediscovered Sumo a couple of years ago, it looks like things will change relatively quickly in the near future due to the decline of the top dogs and the new kids coming through quickly. I even think that Kisenosato might finally get his Yusho

[Benevolance 2,478]

I'm really don't see a lot of pressure on the yokozunae in the near future. None of the young guys so far have been able to turn in convincing, consecutive performances in the meat grinder. Goeidou and the Geek are realistically ranked above their actual level and mostly struggle to hold onto their rank, and Terunofuji is so banged up I'm not sure he'll ever wrestle to his potential. Kise is the only credible threat, and he's only been that for about a year now. 

Kakuryu manages to be in the yusho race once every four basho, Harumafuji every three basho, and I haven't heard the YDC complaining overly much about it. If Hakuho is only winning one or two tournaments a year, do people really think he should retire?

[Rocks 1,807]

Just realized. The only division Sato has been in that he hasn't won a Yusho in is Sandanme. Pretty impressive. 

[Bumpkin 438]

35 minutes ago, Suwihuto said:

Yes, it feels like exciting times coming up. For the first time since I rediscovered Sumo a couple of years ago, it looks like things will change relatively quickly in the near future due to the decline of the top dogs and the new kids coming through quickly. I even think that Kisenosato might finally get his Yusho

I rediscovered sumo 2&1/2 years ago, after Kakuryu's Yokozuna promotion. It's been all Hakuho since, with the occasional "other" Mongolian yusho.

[Bumpkin 438]

25 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Just realized. The only division Sato has been in that he hasn't won a Yusho in is Sandanme. Pretty impressive. 

Only one person in history has won all 6 division Yusho.

[Suwihuto 125]

1 minute ago, Bumpkin said:

I rediscovered sumo 2&1/2 years ago, after Kakuryu's Yokozuna promotion. It's been all Hakuho since, with the occasional "other" Mongolian yusho.

Yep, I think I came in just before Goueidouuuu's Ozeki promotion. I suppose what I'm expecting is for the next couple of years to be very much less predictable than I've been used to.

[Bumpkin 438]

3 minutes ago, Suwihuto said:

Yep, I think I came in just before Goueidouuuu's Ozeki promotion. I suppose what I'm expecting is for the next couple of years to be very much less predictable than I've been used to.

Goeido's very questionable Ozeki promotion. 12-3, 8-7, 12-3. 32 wins. But he did beat Hakuho 3 straight times.

[RabidJohn 1,663]

I wonder how long Hak will put up with merely acceptable yokozuna performances; i.e. not performing at his former dai-yokozuna level. I think he'll take the record for makuuchi wins quite easily and probably try for 40 yusho, but as things stand now the latter may take 18 months or more. I don't want to see him get to a point where he has to retire; announcing his intai at his 40th yusho interview would be ideal.

Barring the unforeseen, Haru and Kak should take further yusho over the next couple of years, simply because Hak's lost his dominance. Haru ought to be able to make double figures and become a dai-yokozuna himself. I really don't know about Kak... but I think there's a probably couple of years in all the yokozuna yet.

Will they be joined by a 4th? I wouldn't rule out Kise or Goeido becoming 'twilight' yokozuna like Asahifuji and Wakanohana, again because Hak's lost his dominance and Haru and Kak never had it. I'm certain they'll both take yusho in the next couple of years. Goeido reminds me a lot of Akinoshima; capable of beating anyone, but wildly inconsistent. Kise on the other hand is too consistent - he needs a bit of wildness!

I'd be amazed if Koto lasts long enough to get anywhere near another yusho. He'll probably be first to go.

Terunofuji should have been a yokozuna already, but coulda, woulda, shoulda... He doesn't appear to know how to look after himself, and no one else appears to be doing it for him. Sad to see.

Then there's the unforeseen. Who's going to break through from the lower ranks? I fancy Shodai and Mitakeumi's chances of making ozeki, but I couldn't put a timescale on it. Further down I'm liking the look of Chiyoshoma, and when I saw Hokutofuji I wondered if Hakkaku had had himself cloned.

 

 

[Kuroyama 715]

3 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Haru and Kak never had it

Harumafuji has 8 yusho under his belt. I think in any other era, without an Asashoryu or a Hakuho to compare him to, this would be considered a very strong if not dominating performance, particularly since we might expect him to have gotten at least 1 or 2 more yusho had Hakuho not been there.

[Benihana 1,901]

4 hours ago, Benevolance said:

I'm really don't see a lot of pressure on the yokozunae in the near future. None of the young guys so far have been able to turn in convincing, consecutive performances in the meat grinder. Goeidou and the Geek are realistically ranked above their actual level and mostly struggle to hold onto their rank, and Terunofuji is so banged up I'm not sure he'll ever wrestle to his potential. Kise is the only credible threat, and he's only been that for about a year now. 

Kakuryu manages to be in the yusho race once every four basho, Harumafuji every three basho, and I haven't heard the YDC complaining overly much about it. If Hakuho is only winning one or two tournaments a year, do people really think he should retire?

It's not the pressure from the lower ranks, it's their age. You can't deny, that they get older and their bodies suffer. I'd really like to watch Hakuho's danpatsu-shiki at the 2020 Olympics, but i have a baaad feeling about that.

Harumafuji is 32, Hakuho 31, Kakuryuu 31. Kotoshogiku 32, Kisenosato 30, Goeido 30.

Let's have a look at former Yokozuna and at Ozeki, who intaied from that rank:

Baruto, injured. Intai aged 29.

Kaio, intai aged 39.

Kotooshu, injured. Intai aged 31.

Kotomitsuki, expelled. Aged 34. Could have fought some more years.

Asashoryu, expelled. Aged 29. Could have fought some more years.

Chiyotaikai, injured. Intai aged 33.

Tochiazuma, injured. Intai aged 30.

Musoyama, injured. Intai aged 32.

Musashimaru, injured. Intai aged 33.

Wakanohana, injured. Intai aged 29.

Takanohana, injured. Intai aged 30.

Akebono, injured. Intai aged 32.

 

6 of 7 Y/Os are aged 30 or older. How many of them will have a career like Kaio? Goeido and Kisenosato are the only 2 without injury since many years. Who will hit the age wall first?

 

[rzombie1988 157]

16 hours ago, Jojo said:

Pretty sure he means Taiho there... No? 1961...

 

Yeah, just a misspell.

[robnplunder 974]

3 hours ago, Benihana said:

It's not the pressure from the lower ranks, it's their age. You can't deny, that they get older and their bodies suffer. I'd really like to watch Hakuho's danpatsu-shiki at the 2020 Olympics, but i have a baaad feeling about that.

Harumafuji is 32, Hakuho 31, Kakuryuu 31. Kotoshogiku 32, Kisenosato 30, Goeido 30.

Let's have a look at former Yokozuna and at Ozeki, who intaied from that rank:

Baruto, injured. Intai aged 29.

Kaio, intai aged 39.

Kotooshu, injured. Intai aged 31.

Kotomitsuki, expelled. Aged 34. Could have fought some more years.

Asashoryu, expelled. Aged 29. Could have fought some more years.

Chiyotaikai, injured. Intai aged 33.

Tochiazuma, injured. Intai aged 30.

Musoyama, injured. Intai aged 32.

Musashimaru, injured. Intai aged 33.

Wakanohana, injured. Intai aged 29.

Takanohana, injured. Intai aged 30.

Akebono, injured. Intai aged 32.

 

6 of 7 Y/Os are aged 30 or older. How many of them will have a career like Kaio? Goeido and Kisenosato are the only 2 without injury since many years. Who will hit the age wall first?

 

Quick math says average intai was about 32 years old.   Current crop of Ozeki/Yokozuna's average age is 31.    The change of guard will happen sooner than later than we expect.    A sudden injury, lack of motivation to keep up, aging body catching up, ..., can happen at any basho.   This is why I am looking forward to the next crop of up and coming rikishi.   Who will step up?  Shodai?  Endo?  

[rzombie1988 157]

8 hours ago, Benevolance said:

I'm really don't see a lot of pressure on the yokozunae in the near future. None of the young guys so far have been able to turn in convincing, consecutive performances in the meat grinder. Goeidou and the Geek are realistically ranked above their actual level and mostly struggle to hold onto their rank, and Terunofuji is so banged up I'm not sure he'll ever wrestle to his potential. Kise is the only credible threat, and he's only been that for about a year now. 

Kakuryu manages to be in the yusho race once every four basho, Harumafuji every three basho, and I haven't heard the YDC complaining overly much about it. If Hakuho is only winning one or two tournaments a year, do people really think he should retire?

It takes time to really get up there and start challenging for more normal yokozunae. It took Kakuryu 10-11 years and took Harumafuji 7-8. I think what we are seeing from people like Shodai, Terunofuji and Mitaekumi is certainly encouraging. These guys made the top 2% in only a few years. We had 7 guys reach their highest ever rank last basho which is pretty good. Long term though, I think sumo is going to end up as a sport with more foreigners in it as there just aren't enough new wrestlers to fill the spots and the talent isn't quite what it used to be.

I don't think Hakuho should retire, just I think his peak is past and it seems his body is catching up to the years of sumo.

Edited November 30, 2016 by rzombie1988

[Katooshu 3,132]

8 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Only one person in history has won all 6 division Yusho.

Tochiazuma and Haguroyama did it

[Gurowake 3,915]

21 hours ago, Dapeng said:

He only won 2 yusho this year and many people consider him in severe decline. He is expected to win at least 4 yusho a year. 

I would correct that to say that he *was* expected to win 4 a year, and indeed my simulations generally predicted around a 60-65% win rate for him before his most recent run.  I think 3 a year is a much more realistic approximation now, but I haven't pulled together calculations for it and my ratings probably haven't reflected the full impact of Hakuho's injury.  Just going by the last two basho, he's no better than the other top 3, so 3 yusho seems like way too optimistic of a prediction, but he'll likely be stronger if he can manage to fully recover - though we'll never really know until it happens.

[robnplunder 974]

9 hours ago, Rocks said:

Just realized. The only division Sato has been in that he hasn't won a Yusho in is Sandanme. Pretty impressive. 

It's not too late for Sato to Yusho in Sandanme.   He's young.   

[Bumpkin 438]

1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

Tochiazuma and Haguroyama did it

You are correct. I knew about Tochiazuma but forgot about Haguroyama.  BTW does anyone remember Tochiazuma's dad, aka Tochiazuma.