Basho Talk - Kyushu Basho 2016 ** (SPOILERS)

[CT3* 331]

Sato vs. Ura bout? Much ado about nothing, imo.

[Bumpkin 438]

I like Sato.  At 20, he will be the youngest shin-Makuuchi  wrestler in a long time.  Kinta, how many wins will he get in January?  I predict 10 and the Kanto sho.

[Kintamayama 44,345]

The YDC convened. Moriya the head said no way even a yusho will get him promoted. Some other members are of the same opinion. Moriya said Kisenosato lost to three hiramaku rikishi and was two wins behind the yusho winner Kakuryuu. "It's a jun-yusho where he wasn't really part of the yusho race..If he gets the yusho, I will not be raising both my hands in approval of his promotion.." said Moriya. The others pointed out his day 13 loss to Tochinoshin. "That made a bad impression," they said.

Moriya, regarding Kakuryuu: "He was very stable. Next year he will probably continue to be a factor.."

Several other members, regarding Hakuhou: "He seems not to be as strong as he was.."

[robnplunder 974]

Sato's height and reach will be a major obstacle to his success in Makuuchi.   There is a limit to ballooning up.  Like other small rikishi, I see him riding that elevator regularly.    I don't see him winning 10 in January.    I predict 8-7 or worse.

[Kintamayama 44,345]

7 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

I like Sato.  At 20, he will be the youngest shin-Makuuchi  wrestler in a long time.  Kinta, how many wins will he get in January?  I predict 10 and the Kanto sho.

Makekoshi. Makuuchi is a totally different ball game and the bottom of Makuuchi will be star studded.. He's not a slithery guy like the two Uras. He'll be a mainstay of course in time but the wall awaits.

[Rocks 1,807]

4 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

The YDC convened. Moriya the head said no way even a yusho will get him promoted. Some other members are of the same opinion. Moriya said Kisenosato lost to three hiramaku rikishi and was two wins behind the yusho winner Kakuryuu. "It's a jun-yusho where he wasn't really part of the yusho race..If he gets the yusho, I will not be raising both my hands in approval of his promotion.." said Moriya. The others pointed out his day 13 loss to Tochinoshin. "That made a bad impression," they said.

Moriya, regarding Kakuryuu: "He was very stable. Next year he will probably continue to be a factor.."

Several other members, regarding Hakuhou: "He seems not to be as strong as he was.."

Translation: If he gets an actual Yusho we will change our tune of course. But we aren't saying crap til then because who knows if it will ever happen? As far as Kakuryu and Hakuho? Well, they will have a wonderful intai ceremony coming. 

[Bumpkin 438]

9 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Makekoshi. Makuuchi is a totally different ball game and the bottom of Makuuchi will be star studded.. He's not a slithery guy like the two Uras. He'll be a mainstay of course in time but the wall awaits.

I think "the wall" will be maegashira joi.  Sato will be as good as Shodai.  A future Ozeki!

[Yubinhaad 11,541]

Regarding Sato, Sponichi expects that he will take the shikona Takakeisho Mitsunobu (貴景勝 光信) for his Makuuchi debut.

[Katooshu 3,132]

I like Takasato better

[rzombie1988 157]

Kise's also on a race against the clock against Father Time. He's been going for 14 years now. Hakuho hasn't been that injury prone but it's clear the years of sumo are catching up with him.

[robnplunder 974]

If you have not checked out @Kintamayama's Kyushu basho's highlight video, please do so.   It got everything from disco to Beethoven, and yeah, the best of sumo bouts.  

[ryafuji 807]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The YDC convened. Moriya the head said no way even a yusho will get him promoted. Some other members are of the same opinion. Moriya said Kisenosato lost to three hiramaku rikishi and was two wins behind the yusho winner Kakuryuu. "It's a jun-yusho where he wasn't really part of the yusho race..If he gets the yusho, I will not be raising both my hands in approval of his promotion.." said Moriya. The others pointed out his day 13 loss to Tochinoshin. "That made a bad impression," they said.

Moriya, regarding Kakuryuu: "He was very stable. Next year he will probably continue to be a factor.."

Several other members, regarding Hakuhou: "He seems not to be as strong as he was.."

 

2 hours ago, Rocks said:

Translation: If he gets an actual Yusho we will change our tune of course. But we aren't saying crap til then because who knows if it will ever happen?

I'm not sure why you felt the need to "translate" what Moriya said. Seems crystal-clear to me. Kisenosato will not get promoted next time even if he wins the yusho, because his performance in this tournament wasn't good enough. Why should we doubt what he says? Can you point me to an example when the YDC said they wouldn't promote someone, and then did?

Edited November 28, 2016 by ryafuji

[Rocks 1,807]

14 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

 

I'm not sure why you felt the need to "translate" what Moriya said. Seems crystal-clear to me. Kisenosato will not get promoted next time even if he wins the yusho, because his performance in this tournament wasn't good enough. Why should we doubt what he says? Can you point me to an example when the YDC said they wouldn't promote someone, and then did?

It's half joke, relax. The other half is just my opinion.

[Atenzan 1,074]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The YDC convened. Moriya the head said no way even a yusho will get him promoted. Some other members are of the same opinion. Moriya said Kisenosato lost to three hiramaku rikishi and was two wins behind the yusho winner Kakuryuu. "It's a jun-yusho where he wasn't really part of the yusho race..If he gets the yusho, I will not be raising both my hands in approval of his promotion.." said Moriya. The others pointed out his day 13 loss to Tochinoshin. "That made a bad impression," they said.

Moriya, regarding Kakuryuu: "He was very stable. Next year he will probably continue to be a factor.."

Several other members, regarding Hakuhou: "He seems not to be as strong as he was.."

I find myself agreeing 100% with chairman Moriya of all people. Should I just jump off a bridge?

[Bumpkin 438]

2 hours ago, Katooshu said:

I like Takasato better

I do too.

[rzombie1988 157]

So I logged some numbers to see roughly where some of some of the wrestlers stand compared to other Ozeki and Yokozuna. I didn't include Chiyotaikai and probably a couple of others, though I probably should have.

The Yellow means that a wrestler did not complete a full tournament that year and may have not even entered a tournament of the 6.

I also couldn't go back to Futabayama's time due their only being 2 basho's and less than 15 matches for some of it, but he seems like he would have placed well.

Some notes:

- Hakuho is pretty much the best sumo wrestler since it went to 15 day tournaments.

- Every single person on that list has a title minus Futahaguro and you guessed it, Kisenosato.

- As expected, Kise truly is just behind the current 3 Yokozunae. He's basically 1 loss behind a few tournaments a year.

- Kitanoumi was a beast that few people really remember

- Takanohana was also a god-tier yokozuna and doesn't fully get the credit he deserves. History is going to be very kind to him someday.

- Some of the numbers might be off a little due to wrestlers in their last 2 years trying to enter basho's and then leaving.

- Goeido is on track to be one of the worst Ozeki in a long time and Kotooshu was not much better.

- Musashimaru had his best year ever stat wise near the end of his run, which is interesting.

- Kaiho's and Akebono's numbers got screwed due to them being injured and out so often. Akebono's records also don't show him having a much harder schedule than Takanohana, as Akebono would frequently have Takanonami, Takanohana, Wakanohana and Musashimaru, while Tak wouldn't have his stablemates to fight.

- The 1980's had a ton of Yokozuna and Ozeki at the same time which was pretty interesting.

- Next year will be interesting to see if Hakuho can hold up, since he'd be outlasting even Kaio in the top 2 divisions.

Edited November 28, 2016 by rzombie1988

[Jojo 11]

1 hour ago, rzombie1988 said:

So I logged some numbers to see roughly where some of some of the wrestlers stand compared to other Ozeki and Yokozuna. I didn't include Chiyotaikai and probably a couple of others, though I probably should have.

The Yellow means that a wrestler did not complete a full tournament that year and may have not even entered a tournament of the 6.

I also couldn't go back to Futabayama's time due their only being 2 basho's and less than 15 matches for some of it, but he seems like he would have placed well.

Some notes:

- Hakuho is pretty much the best sumo wrestler since it went to 15 day tournaments.

- Every single person on that list has a title minus Futahaguro and you guessed it, Kisenosato.

- As expected, Kise truly is just behind the current 3 Yokozunae. He's basically 1 loss behind a few tournaments a year.

- Kitanoumi was a beast that few people really remember

- Takanohana was also a god-tier yokozuna and doesn't fully get the credit he deserves. History is going to be very kind to him someday.

- Some of the numbers might be off a little due to wrestlers in their last 2 years trying to enter basho's and then leaving.

- Goeido is on track to be one of the worst Ozeki in a long time and Kotooshu was not much better.

- Musashimaru had his best year ever stat wise near the end of his run, which is interesting.

- Kaiho's and Akebono's numbers got screwed due to them being injured and out so often. Akebono's records also don't show him having a much harder schedule than Takanohana, as Akebono would frequently have Takanonami, Takanohana, Wakanohana and Musashimaru, while Tak wouldn't have his stablemates to fight.

- The 1980's had a ton of Yokozuna and Ozeki at the same time which was pretty interesting.

- Next year will be interesting to see if Hakuho can hold up, since he'd be outlasting even Kaio in the top 2 divisions.

Oh man that's nerdy! I love it! 

[Morty 1,480]

2 hours ago, rzombie1988 said:

So I logged some numbers to see roughly where some of some of the wrestlers stand compared to other Ozeki and Yokozuna. I didn't include Chiyotaikai and probably a couple of others, though I probably should have.

The Yellow means that a wrestler did not complete a full tournament that year and may have not even entered a tournament of the 6.

I also couldn't go back to Futabayama's time due their only being 2 basho's and less than 15 matches for some of it, but he seems like he would have placed well.

Some notes:

- Hakuho is pretty much the best sumo wrestler since it went to 15 day tournaments.

- Every single person on that list has a title minus Futahaguro and you guessed it, Kisenosato.

- As expected, Kise truly is just behind the current 3 Yokozunae. He's basically 1 loss behind a few tournaments a year.

- Kitanoumi was a beast that few people really remember

- Takanohana was also a god-tier yokozuna and doesn't fully get the credit he deserves. History is going to be very kind to him someday.

- Some of the numbers might be off a little due to wrestlers in their last 2 years trying to enter basho's and then leaving.

- Goeido is on track to be one of the worst Ozeki in a long time and Kotooshu was not much better.

- Musashimaru had his best year ever stat wise near the end of his run, which is interesting.

- Kaiho's and Akebono's numbers got screwed due to them being injured and out so often. Akebono's records also don't show him having a much harder schedule than Takanohana, as Akebono would frequently have Takanonami, Takanohana, Wakanohana and Musashimaru, while Tak wouldn't have his stablemates to fight.

- The 1980's had a ton of Yokozuna and Ozeki at the same time which was pretty interesting.

- Next year will be interesting to see if Hakuho can hold up, since he'd be outlasting even Kaio in the top 2 divisions.

I did something similar to this a while ago (but without a spreadsheet - I jotted some notes down with a pencil) but I left out any basho where a rikishi went Kyujo. Pretty much the same result - there was Hakuho, then daylight, then everyone else. I also got the same result that Kise was easily Yokozona level in his average wins etc, but was without a yusho like the rest. I saw a clear difference between Yokozunae and Ozeki, in that the Yoks all (including Futahaguro) were at least 1.5 wins on average better than the Ozeki. It also made it clear that statistically, both Kak and HF were clearly Yok level in their results, though near the bottom of the curve rather than the top.

[robnplunder 974]

Hakuho, in the last two basho, he lost 9 times.   He's off, way off his standard of excellence.   Is this the beginning of the end or caused by injury soon to be forgotten?   Since I am not a fan of Hakuho, I hope it is the former.  

[rzombie1988 157]

25 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Hakuho, in the last two basho, he lost 9 times.   He's off, way off his standard of excellence.   Is this the beginning of the end or caused by injury soon to be forgotten?   Since I am not a fan of Hakuho, I hope it is the former.  

I think his absolute peak is over and I think the days of having hopeless opponents are over as well. As long as he can avoid major injury he should always be in the run.

Edited November 29, 2016 by rzombie1988

[Bumpkin 438]

2 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Hakuho, in the last two basho, he lost 9 times.   He's off, way off his standard of excellence.   Is this the beginning of the end or caused by injury soon to be forgotten?   Since I am not a fan of Hakuho, I hope it is the former.  

I predict Hakuho will "only" win 3 yushos in 2017.

[Dapeng 232]

2 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

I predict Hakuho will "only" win 3 yushos in 2017.

He only won 2 yusho this year and many people consider him in severe decline. He is expected to win at least 4 yusho a year. 

[Dapeng 232]

5 hours ago, Morty said:

I did something similar to this a while ago (but without a spreadsheet - I jotted some notes down with a pencil) but I left out any basho where a rikishi went Kyujo. Pretty much the same result - there was Hakuho, then daylight, then everyone else. I also got the same result that Kise was easily Yokozona level in his average wins etc, but was without a yusho like the rest. I saw a clear difference between Yokozunae and Ozeki, in that the Yoks all (including Futahaguro) were at least 1.5 wins on average better than the Ozeki. It also made it clear that statistically, both Kak and HF were clearly Yok level in their results, though near the bottom of the curve rather than the top.

1.5 wins is probably the average difference between yusho and jun-yusho. A huge difference.

[Dapeng 232]

14 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

In many ways, yes, but in terms of overall results it's not that different, as Harumafuji and Kakuryu clearly demonstrate.

A yokozuna is just an ozeki who's done the necessary yusho-wise. After that all he has to do is turn in consistent ozeki numbers.

Kise is another good example, with his overall record for 2016 outstripping all three yokozuna.

Of course the yokozuna have managed 4 yusho between them this year, but the ozeki have managed 2. That's a trend I can see continuing now the era of Hakuho dominance has ended, and that's how it should be: ozeki contending for the yusho each time.

 

 

Kisenosato has a habit to lose to hiramaku. Once he becomes yokozuna, hiramaku will certainly fight him even harder to obtain golden stars. He will have more trouble......

[robnplunder 974]

22 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

He only won 2 yusho this year and many people consider him in severe decline. He is expected to win at least 4 yusho a year. 

The last time he lost 9 bouts in two consecutive basho were 2006-2007.  He was Sekiwake at the time.  Can he recover from the last two basho?  Sure he can.   Can he decline further from here?   Sure he can.   Can he remain an average Yokozuna?   Sure he can.   It's hard to tell from the last two basho.   If he turns in another or two 10-5 or 11-4, I would believe his best has left him.  Until then, the jury is still out.   Injury can explain 10-5, two basho ago.   Lack of preparation due to recovering from injury can explain this basho's 11-4.   He'd have very little excuse in the next basho.   

Edited November 29, 2016 by robnplunder