Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2016

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Day 12 (results, text-only results):

    10-2  Harumafuji   Y1   Hakuho      kyujo
     8-4  Kakuryu      Y2
     9-3  Kisenosato   O1   Terunofuji   4-8
    12-0  Goeido       O2   Kotoshogiku  7-5

Another day, another Goeido win, this time beating yokozuna Kakuryu. Can he collect his career-first 13th win? Harumafuji did what he had to do and maintained his two-loss pursuit with a win over Kotoshogiku, and Kisenosato was also successful in his quest to at least keep his name near the top of the hoshitori. Takayasu stays one win ahead of his sempai, sending Yoshikaze to makekoshi. Meanwhile, Terunofuji is now makekoshi - losing to Aoiyama of all people, for the first time ever in 11 bouts - and given he didn't pull out of the tournament in his 2-13 disaster when he looked even worse, I suppose he'll remain in to play his part as one of the "top" 4 rikishi at the business end of the basho. If you thought a year ago that Terunofuji would be kadoban three times in five basho, please raise your hand.

As expected, other 4-7 records also didn't last much longer and both sekiwake Takarafuji and komusubi Kaisei are now makekoshi. As usual the former may still get to stick in sanyaku with 7 wins while the latter is now headed back to the maegashira ranks. Okinoumi failed to claim the open spot for now with a loss to Tochiozan whose own attempt to save his sanyaku rank remains alive.

Behind Okinoumi Tamawashi has turned himself into the unlikely second-best contender for a sanyaku slot now, courtesy of 7 straight wins. Shodai also remains on his hot streak, still chasing down the unusual kachikoshi from 0-7. Endo's second foray into higher-ranked competition went better than yesterday's, as he pushed his record to 10-2 at Mitakeumi's expense.

    10-2  Takayasu     S    Takarafuji   4-8
(x)  4-8  Kaisei       K    Tochiozan    5-7

     7-5  Okinoumi     M1   Yoshikaze    4-8  (x)
                       M2   Shodai       5-7
(x)  4-8  Takanoiwa    M3
                       M4
     7-5  Aoiyama      M5   Mitakeumi    8-4
     7-5  Chiyonokuni  M6   Tamawashi    9-3
     7-5  Shohozan     M7
                       M8   Kotoyuki     8-4
                       M9   Takekaze     7-5  (x)
                       ...
    10-2  Endo         M14


Whatever hopes Daieisho may have had for banzuke luck, they're over now as his 9th loss (to Arawashi) ensured his demotion to juryo. The next two most-endangered rikishi met today, and Toyohibiki pushed out Amakaze to leave both teetering on the edge for the final three days. Kyokushuho helped himself a bit with his first win in six days.

There are going to be plenty of demotable rikishi again, and once again there's also not a great deal of contenders to be found in juryo. With three days to go, everybody needs at least a 2-1 finish to achieve a promotable W-L total. Yesterday's best two candidates Chiyomaru and Daiki were both on the losing side of the day's torikumi, Hidenoumi (against Daiki) and Chiyotairyu (against Osunaarashi) achieved kachikoshi to improve their position.

                       M3   Ichinojo    kyujo (?)
                       M4   Chiyootori  1-10-1(?)
                       ...
(1)  3-9  Daishomaru   M8
                       M9
(1)  4-8  Arawashi     M10
(o)  5-7  Sokokurai    M11  Homarefuji  0-4-8 (x)
(1)  5-7  Gagamaru     M12
(3)  3-9  Amakaze      M13  Toyohibiki   4-8  (3)
                       M14
(2)  5-7  Tokushoryu   M15  Kyokushuho   6-6  (2)
(x)  3-9  Daieisho     M16  ---

(x)  4-8  Ura          J1   Osunaarashi 5-6-1 (3)
                       J2   Kitaharima   5-7  (~)
(3)  6-6  Azumaryu     J3
(2)  8-4  Hidenoumi    J4   Chiyotairyu  8-4  (2)
(2)  8-4  Chiyomaru    J5
(3)  8-4  Ishiura      J6   Daiki        9-3  (2)
(~)  7-5  Tsurugisho   J7
                       J8   Chiyoo       8-4  (~)
                       J9
(~)  9-3  Kotoeko      J10


Oyanagi's desperate turnaround after his 0-3 start ended up successful after all, as he sent Fujiazuma to makekoshi to secure his own juryo debut. In the Heisei era he's the 17th rikishi in the top 5 ranks to achieve this turnaround, the 9th to earn his promotion to juryo with it, and the 4th to do it from the top spot. Fujiazuma will be falling to the unsalaried ranks for the first time since November 2010.

Elsewhere it was veterans' day in juryo as Asasekiryu, Aminishiki and Kitataiki all clinched their last needed win for survival. Asabenkei and Satoyama weren't so fortunate and enter the last three days looking for two more shiroboshi, as does Wakanoshima despite winning today.

That's probably a large enough number of demotion candidates that things won't be too crunched in the end, even though the high makushita ranks aren't short of contenders this time around.

                       J7   Asasekiryu   4-8  (o)
(x) kyujo Toyonoshima  J8
                       J9   Satoyama     3-9  (2)
                       J10  Aminishiki   6-6  (o)
(2)  4-8  Asabenkei    J11  Kizenryu     5-7  (1)
                       J12  Asahisho     6-6  (1)
(1)  6-6  Kyokutaisei  J13  Wakanoshima  5-7  (2)
(x)  4-8  Fujiazuma    J14  Kitataiki    8-4  (o)

(o)  4-3  Oyanagi      Ms1  Daishoho     4-2
(o)  6-0  Yamaguchi    Ms2  Ryuden       3-3
     3-3  Meisei       Ms3  Sakamoto     4-2
                       Ms4
                       Ms5  Rikishin     4-2

Tomorrow's juryo visitor will be Ryuden, attempting to return to juryo exactly four years after his ill-fated first stint. Even a win might not be enough, though, depending on what the rest of the contender crew do.

Edited by Asashosakari
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This is like reading a beautifully written novel.   @Asashosakari should be nominated for a Pulitzer prize :-).

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Asashosakari, if Tamaki wins tonight over Yamaguchi for the yusho how high up Ms do you think he will go?

Edited by Rocks

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Should be around Ms4.

Rule of thumb: for Makushita yusho rikishi divide the rank number by 10. Ms20 --> Ms2. Ms30 --> Ms3 etc.

Though I am not Asashosakari, I learnt this rule from him. :-)

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If Tamaki wins, the TORCH will stay in Makushita for the remainder of 2016.

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Day 13 (results, text-only results):

    10-3  Harumafuji   Y1   Hakuho      kyujo
     9-4  Kakuryu      Y2
     9-4  Kisenosato   O1   Terunofuji   4-9
    13-0  Goeido       O2   Kotoshogiku  8-5

Beating the second yokozuna in as many days, Goeido reached uncharted territory at 13-0 and has nearly secured his yusho now with Harumafuji gone from the race - sekiwake Takayasu was also eliminated by Mitakeumi, so only low-ranked Endo (winning against Shohozan) can still force a playoff with the leader now. Kakuryu was successful against Kisenosato, ending the ozeki's tsuna hopes for at least four months (that sounds more sarcastic than I intended it to be...), and Kotoshogiku finally shed the kadoban tag with victory over hapless Terunofuji.

The lower sanyaku dominoes have fallen now, as sekiwake Takarafuji picked up loss number nine against Yoshikaze and komusubi Tochiozan was sent packing by Takanoiwa. Absolutely nothing is decided in the race for the now available three slots though; maegashira-hitto Okinoumi still hasn't come through for his kachikoshi, and several lower-ranked contenders remain very closely matched. A pair of head-to-head clashes in this area were won by Chiyonokuni and Aoiyama, beating Tamawashi and Okinoumi respectively. Shodai's attempt to turn around his 0-7 start was ended by Kaisei.

    10-3  Takayasu     S    Takarafuji   4-9  (x)
(x)  5-8  Kaisei       K    Tochiozan    5-8  (x)

     7-6  Okinoumi     M1
                       M2   Shodai       5-8  (x)
                       M3
                       M4
     8-5  Aoiyama      M5   Mitakeumi    9-4
     8-5  Chiyonokuni  M6   Tamawashi    9-4
(x)  7-6  Shohozan     M7
                       M8   Kotoyuki     9-4
                       ...
    11-2  Endo         M14

The ordinarily planned Goeido-Kaisei Day 14 sanyaku bout wil be skipped after all, and the yusho-chasing ozeki will be getting the best-record (as of Day 12) upper maegashira instead, that being Tamawashi. Fellow contender Endo is moving up all the way to sekiwake Takayasu for his next bout. In the lower sanyaku race there's more head-to-head action as well with Okinoumi facing Kotoyuki, and Mitakeumi gets a tough (or maybe not...) assignment against freshly unkadobaned ozeki Kotoshogiku.


Daishomaru and Arawashi went at it today for a spot in the next makuuchi rankings, and the Mongolian came out on top to secure his position. Toyohibiki beat juryo visitor Azumaryu to prolong his own survival hopes, and Tokushoryu prevailed over Amakaze, who is very likely headed back to the second division now. Gagamaru and Kyokushuho picked up losses and remain under threat.

Things remain murky as ever on the juryo side where we continue to wait for a credible promotee to emerge, but at least Daiki scored another victory today to move within one win of mathematical certainty. Chiyoo won the matchup of low-ranked candidates against Kotoeko, who should be eliminated now. Kitaharima, who was Daiki's opponent, is also out after he finally failed to turn around his 1-5 start. Ailing Osunaarashi avoided the makekoshi against Ishiura and remains in the promotion mix.

                       M3   Ichinojo    kyujo (?)
                       M4   Chiyootori  1-10-2(?)
                       ...
(1)  3-10 Daishomaru   M8
                       M9
(o)  5-8  Arawashi     M10
                       M11  Homarefuji  0-4-9 (x)
(1)  5-8  Gagamaru     M12
(~)  3-10 Amakaze      M13  Toyohibiki   5-8  (2)
                       M14
(1)  6-7  Tokushoryu   M15  Kyokushuho   6-7  (2)
(x)  3-10 Daieisho     M16  ---

                       J1   Osunaarashi 6-6-1 (2)
                       J2   Kitaharima   5-8  (x)
(~)  6-7  Azumaryu     J3
(2)  8-5  Hidenoumi    J4   Chiyotairyu  8-5  (2)
(2)  8-5  Chiyomaru    J5
(~)  8-5  Ishiura      J6   Daiki       10-3  (1)
(~)  8-5  Tsurugisho   J7
                       J8   Chiyoo       9-4  (~)
                       J9
(x)  9-4  Kotoeko      J10

Two bouts between promotion candidates feature tomorrow, with Chiyomaru meeting Daiki and Hidenoumi facing Tsurugisho. The juryo torikumi will then be concluded with quite possibly the most injured body parts ever on display simultaneously in a sumo bout, as Osunaarashi takes on Aminishiki with both at risk of makekoshi.


Ryuden did what he had to do to earn his career-high kachikoshi, sending Wakanoshima to the brink of demotion. Asabenkei (with a loss) and Satoyama (with a win) also find themselves needing two wins on the final weekend. (Edit: No, Satoyama of course needs just one now.) Kizenryu also remains in danger of demotion, while Asahisho and Kyokutaisei likely saved themselves today. (It remains to be seen if anyone will have to worry about getting overdemoted...) Yamaguchi finished his repromotion campaign in style, picking up his 7th win for the makushita yusho.

(x) kyujo Toyonoshima  J8
                       J9   Satoyama     4-9  (1)
                       J10
(2)  4-9  Asabenkei    J11  Kizenryu     5-8  (1)
                       J12  Asahisho     7-6  (o)
(o)  7-6  Kyokutaisei  J13  Wakanoshima  5-8  (2)
(x)  4-9  Fujiazuma    J14

(o)  4-3  Oyanagi      Ms1  Daishoho     4-2
(o)  7-0  Yamaguchi    Ms2  Ryuden       4-3
     3-3  Meisei       Ms3  Sakamoto     4-2
                       Ms4
                       Ms5  Rikishin     4-2

Meisei takes tomorrow's spot on the exchange carousel, where he can engineer Asabenkei's demotion. Of course, he might not actually end up benefiting himself, considering Daishoho and Ryuden are already ahead and Sakamoto might also finish higher in the queue. Speaking of whom, Sakamoto will not be getting into the exchange bout mix as he and Rikishin have already been set against one another for tomorrow. That means Daishoho will be the Day 15 fill-in. As far as the other demotion candidates go, there's a direct matchup between Kizenryu and Satoyama, while Wakanoshima has to deal with yusho-contending Kotoeko.

Edited by Asashosakari
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So you think Sakamoto won't be promoted even with a win?

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2 minutes ago, Rocks said:

So you think Sakamoto won't be promoted even with a win?

I don't think that's what he said at all.  He's just not guaranteed a promotion right now.  He's still not guaranteed one with a win either, as there are 2 already ahead of him and only two spots open and his match can't guarantee a third opens up.

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3 minutes ago, Rocks said:

So you think Sakamoto won't be promoted even with a win?

No, just that he's not getting a juryo opponent himself, which is a bit unusual for somebody at Ms3 in this situation. They've gone with the option I would have considered least likely...I figured they would instead do Daishoho-Rikishin with Sakamoto in juryo, or perhaps send all three into juryo bouts. 

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You have Satoyama at 3-8 instead of 4-9, and apparently your algorithm uses wins and day of the basho (as makes most sense) to figure out the annotation, as Satoyama should only need 1 more win to stay in Juryo while you show two.

edit: I have to wonder if Satouyama's presence and lack of differentiated spelling on the DB has anything to do with it.

Edited by Gurowake

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7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

You have Satoyama at 3-8 instead of 4-9, and apparently your algorithm uses wins and day of the basho (as makes most sense) to figure out the annotation, as Satoyama should only need 1 more win to stay in Juryo while you show two.

edit: I have to wonder if Satouyama's presence and lack of differentiated spelling on the DB has anything to do with it.

What algorithm? ;-) This stuff is handcrafted. No, I actually just managed to forget to change Satoyama's record for some reason...for two days running (Day 12 was wrong, too).

Appreciate the heads-up, it's fixed now.

Edited by Asashosakari
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An algorithm in your head as opposed to a computerized version is still an algorithm.  And I caught it because my mental algorithm uses losses, not wins.

Edited by Gurowake
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Juryo yusho leaders:

10-3 Daiki, Onosho
9-4 Chiyoo, Kotoeko
8-5 Hidenoumi, Chiyotairyu, Chiyomaru, Ishiura, Tsurugisho, Sato, Kitataiki

Massive clear-out of the pursuer ranks where only one out of six 8-4's was victorious today, that being Chiyoo who even did it against a leader in Kotoeko. These two are now one off the pace, which continues to be set by Daiki and Onosho. I think the 8-5's are out of the race now. While it's still possible for both leaders to drop to 10-5 (they've already met), there's an Onosho-Chiyoo match on tomorrow's slate, which will either see Onosho's 11th win - or Chiyoo's 10th and he hasn't faced Daiki yet. So somebody should be getting to 11 here if the Day 15 torikumi isn't totally braindead.


Lower division yusho races (Day 13 results and links to video):

7-0 Ms2e Yamaguchi (Miyagino)
6-1 Ms41e Tamaki (Takasago)

6-1 Sd11e Kiribayama (Michinoku)
7-0 Sd39w Kizaki (Kise)
6-1 Sd94e Chiyonoumi (Kokonoe)

7-0 Jd12e Shuji (Kise)
6-1 Jd45e Asahiryu (Asahiyama)
7-0 Jd81e Kurahashi (Asakayama)

7-0 Jk11e Masunoyama (Chiganoura)

Second makushita yusho for Yamaguchi. I wonder if he'll change back his shikona now? Semi-unexpectedly the sandanme division is also decided already after Chiyonoumi was dropped by Dewaotori despite holding the initiative for most of the bout, so Kizaki won the yusho outright in his entertaining matchup with Kiribayama. Shuji overwhelmed Asahiryu in jonidan and will be contesting the senshuraku playoff against Kurahashi who had no trouble with former makushita Kotokensei. Masunoyama secured the jonokuchi yusho, although Hao did well to survive for quite a bit.

Edited by Asashosakari

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6 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Shuji overwhelmed Asahiryu

A Mongolian lost to a Japanese rikishi? Man, they're even rigging Jonidan now. ;-)

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Asashosakari;  You should write a book.  Better yet, you should have a web page with all your sumo knowledge displayed on it.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Rocks said:

A Mongolian lost to a Japanese rikishi? Man, they're even rigging Jonidan now. ;-)

And Kiribayama lost to Kizaki in Sandanme!  They're taking this too far!

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8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

And Kiribayama lost to Kizaki in Sandanme!  They're taking this too far!

It was only a matter of time after their plans succeeded so spectacularly in makushita this year...

Edited by Asashosakari

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Mongolians have more makuuchi yushos than yushos in all other divisions combined IIRC.

Edit: As the laws of the universe dictate;-), I am correct.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&shusshin=59&form1_y=on&form1_m=on 74 makuuchi yushos

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&shusshin=59&form1_y=on&form1_j=on&form1_ms=on&form1_sd=on&form1_jd=on&form1_jk=on 51 juryo-and-below yushos.

Oh, how I wish universal law applied to sumo games.

Edited by McBugger

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Am I correct the rule of thumb for Ozeki promotion was 33 wins from Sanyaku in the last 3 basho? Are they still using that?  (I'm assuming Takayasu isn't going anywhere, although at least 1 Ozeki will drop, because the best he can do is 31 wins in his last 3, and one of those was from M5)

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26 minutes ago, Fukurou said:

Am I correct the rule of thumb for Ozeki promotion was 33 wins from Sanyaku in the last 3 basho? Are they still using that?  (I'm assuming Takayasu isn't going anywhere, although at least 1 Ozeki will drop, because the best he can do is 31 wins in his last 3, and one of those was from M5)

That's the rule of thumb, yes.  Takayasu has a chance to complete the run in Kyushu.

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24 minutes ago, Fukurou said:

Am I correct the rule of thumb for Ozeki promotion was 33 wins from Sanyaku in the last 3 basho? Are they still using that?  (I'm assuming Takayasu isn't going anywhere, although at least 1 Ozeki will drop, because the best he can do is 31 wins in his last 3, and one of those was from M5)

It is and Takayasu needs 12-13 next basho to make it. No Ozeki is dropping yet.

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12 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

It is and Takayasu needs 12-13 next basho to make it. No Ozeki is dropping yet.

If he wins tomorrow and gets a 10-5 in November, he has 32 wins (and this number was good enough to promote Kisenosato and Goueidou). So why do you think he needs 12-13 wins next basho?

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Just now, Tenshinhan said:

If he wins tomorrow and gets a 10-5 in November, he has 32 wins (and this number was good enough to promote Kisenosato and Goueidou). So why do you think he needs 12-13 wins next basho?

To make sure. I think because there already are 4 Ozeki, maybe they will decide to go strictly by the 33 win rule.. Miyabiyama wasn't promoted with 34. Who knows what they're thinking..

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Is prolonged sanyaku success likely to matter when it comes to 32 wins? Kise had been in sanyaku for 9 of the last 10 tournaments, while Goeido was sekiwake for 14 in a row right before his promotion. Conversely, Takayasu was M5 in May and went 5-10 at M1 in March.

Edited by Katooshu

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