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Basho Talk - Aki Basho 2016 +++ Spoiler Alert! +++

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Since everyone seems to be busy with Goeido discussions, a few other thoughts:

Amakaze seems to have the same issue as a few other rikishi with the same body type (like Akiseyama or Sadanofuji) who likewise failed to make an impact on Makuuchi. He has the weight going for him but can't back it up with enough power, which was very obvious today as Amakaze got Sokokurai on the edge of the dohyo but failed to finish him off. This is where the difference between Juryo and Makuuchi becomes quite obvious. 

Kagayaki seems to start getting a bit more comfortable in Makuuchi. Somehow he always seems to stay under the radar - getting his job done but in a very mundane manner. 

Endo probably needs some time to get used to a higher level of competition again, lower Maegashira is just too easy for him. I just pray a higher ranking doesn't result in another injury. 

Ikioi seems to have run out of ikioi, if you pardon me saying so :P

You gotta feel for Yoshikaze - he has shown consistently great and spirited sumo this basho,  yet will probably end up with a makekoshi. He deserves more but that's sumo for you. 

Mitakeumi and Shodai both need a bit more time to settle in at joi level. They have the ability, but I guess part of it is also figuring out your opponents and that doesn't come that fast. Mitakeumi has spent a bit longer in Makuuchi and this basho it looks like he's starting to get it. 

 

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1 hour ago, Rocks said:

You know what they are interested in? The groans from the crowd when guys pull this, especially in a match up people have been looking forward to.

It's one thing when a guy engages and then breaks off as a technique ala Harumafuji. It's another thing to literally leap out of the way. Legal? Yes. A huge disappointment for the fans? Also yes.

You don't think Tochinoshin got an earful after pulling a henka on Kisenosato? Henkas are bad for business. They are the sumo equivalent of a hitter not swinging hoping for a walk. is it walk legal? Of course it is, but it don't put butts in the seats.

I shouldn't continue henka discussion 9234 but ... What are you basing this opinion upon? Have you ever paid to put your own butt in one of those seats and spoken with the Japanese fans around you or even simply observed them and listened to their own conversations among themselves about henkas? 

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How good was Aoiyama's move? On the outer half of the tokudawara, I have never seen that before.

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1 hour ago, Rocks said:

You don't think Tochinoshin got an earful after pulling a henka on Kisenosato? Henkas are bad for business. They are the sumo equivalent of a hitter not swinging hoping for a walk. is it walk legal? Of course it is, but it don't put butts in the seats.

Or a bunt or an intentional walk or other baseball oddities.  Not particularly satisfying, but they are a key part of the game strategy.

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I love a successful henka, but I also love it when it fails and the perpetrator come to immediate grief as a result.

Not all sumo can be a beautiful utchari or cartwheeling uwatenage. Some of it can be quite mundane, anticlimatic, brutal, impressive, comic, astonishing, clumsy, shocking... In fact it's a whole host of different things and I love it because of that.

And, yes, I have paid to put my bum on a seat to watch Ozumo - 300-quid's worth in 1991.

 

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Oh and my question about whether he'd paid wasn't one of whether he'd paid to support sumo. So it would equally apply if he has spoken with Japanese fans about henka outside of a sumo venue. His opinion simply sounds like a western one. I know I was surprised at first to see and hear their reaction to henka when watching matches in person.

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Difficult to watch Chiyotairyu fighting these days. He injured his leg on Day 6 and now wants to catch that kachikoshi somehow but I doubt he will be able to get another win. What a shame after he had such a good start into the basho. Tomorrow he fights Osunaarashi who is also injured.

And while everybody's talking about Ura, Daiki secretly plans his makuuchi debut for November...

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We already discussed the fact that Takayasu can hardly become an ozeki next basho if he finishes with 13-2, despite 33 wins in 3 bashos, because he started his run from M5.

But what if he finishes 13-2 +Y? At that point, what will make the difference with Terunofuji's promotion? An obvious one is his M5 start versus Terunofuji's M2 start. At M2, Terunofuji beats 2 Ozekis, and lost to 2 Yok. But in terms of progression, Takayasu's 9-11-13 is better than Terunofuji's 8-13-12. And his last performance of the 3 will be more impressive (beats 2Y+2O, versus 2O only for Terunofuji).

I don't think his chances are great. But can we say 0% ?

And a side question: If he finishes 13-2, will a 9-6 be enough next basho? (33 wins in Sanyaku, but a poor last performance).

 

Edited by serge_gva

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29 minutes ago, serge_gva said:

We already discussed the fact that Takayasu can hardly become an ozeki next basho if he finishes with 13-2, despite 33 wins in 3 bashos, because he started his run from M5.

But what if he finishes 13-2 +Y? At that point, what will make the difference with Terunofuji's promotion? An obvious one is his M5 start versus Terunofuji's M2 start. At M2, Terunofuji beats 2 Ozekis, and lost to 2 Yok.

But in terms of progression, Takayasu's 9-11-13 is better than Terunofuji's 8-13-12. And his last performance of the 3 will be more impressive (beats 2Y+2O, versus 2O only for Terunofuji).

I don't think his chances are great. But can we say 0% ?

In Terunofuji's case it was a 13-2 Jun-Yusho followed by a 12-3 Yusho, both in Sanyaku. As an ozeki, these days this would be enough for a Yokozuna promotion (if you are called Kisenosato) so they could hardly deny him an Ozeki promotion. Takayasu "only" scored a 11-4 last basho...

Edited by Faustonowaka

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2 hours ago, dingo said:

Amakaze seems to have the same issue as a few other rikishi with the same body type (like Akiseyama or Sadanofuji) who likewise failed to make an impact on Makuuchi. He has the weight going for him but can't back it up with enough power, which was very obvious today as Amakaze got Sokokurai on the edge of the dohyo but failed to finish him off. This is where the difference between Juryo and Makuuchi becomes quite obvious.

Endo probably needs some time to get used to a higher level of competition again, lower Maegashira is just too easy for him. I just pray a higher ranking doesn't result in another injury.

You gotta feel for Yoshikaze - he has shown consistently great and spirited sumo this basho,  yet will probably end up with a makekoshi. He deserves more but that's sumo for you. 

Mitakeumi and Shodai both need a bit more time to settle in at joi level. They have the ability, but I guess part of it is also figuring out your opponents and that doesn't come that fast. Mitakeumi has spent a bit longer in Makuuchi and this basho it looks like he's starting to get it.

Yes, Amakaze's not strong enough for his body to do well in Makuuchi division.  But he is much better than Akiseyama whose body weight seems to be an hindrance to winning even at MS level.  I think Amakaze belongs in mid-juryo for now.

Endo, Mitakeumi, and Shodai seem to be in the same elevator, going up and down Makuuchi division.   Who is going to break out of the elevator?  It's hard to tell. 

I feel for Yoshikaze but he brings upon himself with his sumo style.  

 

There should have been more Mattas.   Takakaze's right hand never touched the ground before charging Gaga.   Did anyone notice Gaga's glare as he walked by Taka after the match was over?   I almost thought something was going to happen.  

My new underdog hero - Ishihura!

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Gaga does seem more angry than usual this basho....aside from the glare at Takekaze he gave Ikioi a little shove and looked reluctant to bow after the match.

Edited by Katooshu
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3 hours ago, Harry said:

I shouldn't continue henka discussion 9234 but ... What are you basing this opinion upon? Have you ever paid to put your own butt in one of those seats and spoken with the Japanese fans around you or even simply observed them and listened to their own conversations among themselves about henkas? 

The collective and loud groan along with tepid applause that follows them, especially the most egregious ones.

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2 hours ago, serge_gva said:

We already discussed the fact that Takayasu can hardly become an ozeki next basho if he finishes with 13-2, despite 33 wins in 3 bashos, because he started his run from M5.

But what if he finishes 13-2 +Y? At that point, what will make the difference with Terunofuji's promotion? An obvious one is his M5 start versus Terunofuji's M2 start. At M2, Terunofuji beats 2 Ozekis, and lost to 2 Yok. But in terms of progression, Takayasu's 9-11-13 is better than Terunofuji's 8-13-12. And his last performance of the 3 will be more impressive (beats 2Y+2O, versus 2O only for Terunofuji).

I don't think his chances are great. But can we say 0% ?

And a side question: If he finishes 13-2, will a 9-6 be enough next basho? (33 wins in Sanyaku, but a poor last performance).

 

I think what most people are talking about now is if he gets double digit wins in November they will make him Ozeki for January. That is what I meant by he is now on an Ozeki run after his latest win.

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2 hours ago, serge_gva said:

We already discussed the fact that Takayasu can hardly become an ozeki next basho if he finishes with 13-2, despite 33 wins in 3 bashos, because he started his run from M5.

But what if he finishes 13-2 +Y? At that point, what will make the difference with Terunofuji's promotion? An obvious one is his M5 start versus Terunofuji's M2 start. At M2, Terunofuji beats 2 Ozekis, and lost to 2 Yok. But in terms of progression, Takayasu's 9-11-13 is better than Terunofuji's 8-13-12. And his last performance of the 3 will be more impressive (beats 2Y+2O, versus 2O only for Terunofuji).

I don't think his chances are great. But can we say 0% ?

And a side question: If he finishes 13-2, will a 9-6 be enough next basho? (33 wins in Sanyaku, but a poor last performance).

Yeah, I suspect it would at least be raised in the press if he does win the yusho with a 13-2 score. I can't really see them giving him the promotion even if that happens, though. Nagoya and Aki are the only two basho in 2015/2016 that Takayasu has had a kachikoshi in the joi-jin. (Compare to Terunofuji who went 8-7 -> 8-7 against the full sanyaku right before his 13 + 12 run.) And at the risk of bringing in a really stupid argument - Terunofuji "looked" like an ozeki at the time, in size and dohyo presence. I don't feel Takayasu has that look (through no fault of his own, it's just an appearance thing), so he won't be getting any extra credit on top of his win-loss totals. And I think those fall a little bit short for the moment even with a 13-2 yusho.

In any case, the final basho in a three-basho run is pretty much guaranteed to need at least a 10-5, and I suspect there will be some critical words if it's not at least an 11-4.

Edited by Asashosakari
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2 hours ago, serge_gva said:

We already discussed the fact that Takayasu can hardly become an ozeki next basho if he finishes with 13-2, despite 33 wins in 3 bashos, because he started his run from M5.

But what if he finishes 13-2 +Y? At that point, what will make the difference with Terunofuji's promotion? An obvious one is his M5 start versus Terunofuji's M2 start. At M2, Terunofuji beats 2 Ozekis, and lost to 2 Yok. But in terms of progression, Takayasu's 9-11-13 is better than Terunofuji's 8-13-12. And his last performance of the 3 will be more impressive (beats 2Y+2O, versus 2O only for Terunofuji).

I don't think his chances are great. But can we say 0% ?

And a side question: If he finishes 13-2, will a 9-6 be enough next basho? (33 wins in Sanyaku, but a poor last performance).

 

Two excellent questions.  First, would 13-2 Y make a difference.  Absolutely, I believe, a Yusho makes all the difference.  Second, would 9-6 be enough?  No, the last basho should be 11 wins or more.

Edited by Bumpkin

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1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

Two excellent questions.  First, would 13-2 Y make a difference?.  Absolutely, a Yusho makes all the difference.  Second, would 9-6 be enough?  No, the last basho should be 11 wins or more.

I did a quick query.  Since 1958, their have been 59 Ozeki promotions, 56 Sekiwake had 11 or more wins.  The only exceptions were Kitanofuji in 1966, Takanohana in 1972 and, you guessed it, Kisenosato in 2011.

Edited by Bumpkin
59 not 58. 56 not 55

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17 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Yeah, I suspect it would at least be raised in the press if he does win the yusho with a 13-2 score. I can't really see them giving him the promotion even if that happens, though. Nagoya and Aki are the only two basho in 2015/2016 that Takayasu has had a kachikoshi in the joi-jin. (Compare to Terunofuji who went 8-7 -> 8-7 against the full sanyaku right before his 13 + 12 run.) And at the risk of bringing in a really stupid argument - Terunofuji "looked" like an ozeki at the time, in size and dohyo presence. I don't feel Takayasu has that look (through no fault of his own, it's just an appearance thing), so he won't be getting any extra credit on top of his win-loss totals. And I think those fall a little bit short for the moment even with a 13-2 yusho.

In any case, the final basho in a three-basho run is pretty much guaranteed to need at least a 10-5, and I suspect there will be some critical words if it's not at least an 11-4.

"Dohyo presence". Good luck defining that. 

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2 hours ago, Faustonowaka said:

In Terunofuji's case it was a 13-2 Jun-Yusho followed by a 12-3 Yusho, both in Sanyaku. As an ozeki, these days this would be enough for a Yokozuna promotion (if you are called Kisenosato) so they could hardly deny him an Ozeki promotion. Takayasu "only" scored a 11-4 last basho...

Agreed, I forgot the Jun-Yusho.

39 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Nagoya and Aki are the only two basho in 2015/2016 that Takayasu has had a kachikoshi in the joi-jin. (Compare to Terunofuji who went 8-7 -> 8-7 against the full sanyaku right before his 13 + 12 run.) And at the risk of bringing in a really stupid argument - Terunofuji "looked" like an ozeki at the time, in size and dohyo presence. I don't feel Takayasu has that look (through no fault of his own, it's just an appearance thing), so he won't be getting any extra credit on top of his win-loss totals. And I think those fall a little bit short for the moment even with a 13-2 yusho.

Agreed again about the nantonaku "Terunofuji looked like an ozeki at the time", and not Takayasu. But if you just consider the results, it's another picture: In his two 8-7 in the joi-in, Teru's results agains Y&O were poor: 0/4 (Yok) and 3/6 (Oz). So is it revelant to have the first basho of your ozeki run in the joi-jin (versus not) if your results against Y/O are not good? If you compare their respective results against Y/O during the run, you get 7 wins for Terunofuji (6xO + 1xY), and also 7 for Takayasu (5xO + 2xY). (without the fusen against Kakuryu). Don't get me wrong, I still think that Teru was more impressive than Takayasu during his run, but speaking about results, it's closer than we might think.
 

Edited by serge_gva

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19 minutes ago, serge_gva said:

So is it revelant to have the first basho of your ozeki run in the joi-jin (versus not) if your results against Y/O are not good?

I feel it's relevant at least in the sense that these results were okay enough to not count against Terunofuji's non-standard (two-basho) ozeki run. Meanwhile, between Hatsu 2015 and Natsu 2016 Takayasu had these scores against joi competition: 6-9, 3-12, 6-9, 1-3-11, 5-10. Essentially there's nothing that supports his most recent two results, even if we expand our look beyond the 9-6 in May which was scored against less than top competition.

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In the case of Kisenosato getting promoted, I think there were a few factors in there when they promoted him. He did not get the 33 wins that there seems to be the line for, but all three basho he did score double digits. Also, I think they gave him a break because it just so happened his shisho died RIGHT BEFORE his last basho at sekiwake.

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Kisenosato got the same sort of break Goeido did.  33 is nice, but 32 after a long stay in sanyaku with multiple other double digit records is good enough.  Takayasu has a single other double-digit joi basho that's outside the area Asashosakari's looking at, and is the sort of thing we tend to see every so often from those who go back to struggling for KKs (if that) in the joi instead of consistently getting the wins to stay in or near sanyaku.  I don't think Takayasu has much of a chance of promotion in this tournament given his two losses, one to a rather poor opponent at the start of the tournament that made us all question whether he was serious about this Ozeki thing.  I think had he gone 15-0, it would have happened, but with a few losses sprinkled in it's just a very good result that lays the second stone on the 3-basho-path to Ozeki, yusho or not.  In Terunofuji's case, even if he had struggled against the YokOzeki, he managed enough wins to get a KK while facing them in two tournaments before his double digit run, while Takayasu wasn't even in the joi in May.

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I just watched the Harumafuji - Takayasu match and it is still amazing. Haru threw everything he had at Taka except the non-henka and Taka still twisted out a win at the edge. First Haru  went for his 2nd patent move and stiff armed Taka to the throat. Taka stood his ground using just his neck. Then Haru let Taka's throat go quickly going for the pull on Taka who was moving forward quickly from pushing back at the stiff arm. Taka wriggled out of the pull. Haru is mad now and just starts slapping Taka all about the head. Raining blows on him.  Taka takes it all and gives some back. Finally Haru throws his whole body at Taka to push him out but here that great speed and power was his downfall. Too far from the edge when Haru started this Taka allowed Haru to get too far forward and Taka thrust him down as he was going out. Absolutely a great match. Brilliant. Like Kisenosato's match with Goeido  both men got up off the floor wondering how they could have lost a match they so dominated till it's very end. Just fantastic.

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Oyanagi beat Fujiazuma to get his KK.Start with 3 loses then 4 wins. very nice.

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