Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2016

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Day 13 (results, text-only results):

10-3 Hakuho Y1 Kakuryu 2-2-9

11-2 Harumafuji Y2

10-3 Kisenosato O1 Kotoshogiku 1-6-6

7-6 Goeido O2 Terunofuji 7-6

While he's still in the race, Kisenosato's yusho and tsuna hopes suffered a serious setback in a rather one-sided loss to yokozuna Harumafuji today. The latter is now the sole leader and has it in his hands to win the yusho outright. Hakuho also remains in the mix after a bout against Goeido in which he didn't have to do very much for his win. Terunofuji also failed to convert his first KK opportunity, getting outmuscled by Shodai.

Kaisei took a major step towards defending his sekiwake position with a hard-fought victory against sanyaku slot (and previously yusho) contender Takarafuji. Tochiozan was defeated in another potentially crucial bout in the promotion race, following up yesterday's loss to Okinoumi with one to Yoshikaze. Okinoumi for his part continues to play a role in the race as well, picking up a win against outgoing komusubi Kotoyuki to make it three shiroboshi in a row from 4-6.

7-6 Kaisei S Tochinoshin 4-9 (x)

(x) 2-11 Kotoyuki K Takayasu 9-4

M1 Tochiozan 7-6

7-6 Okinoumi M2 Takarafuji 9-4

M3

M4

9-4 Shodai M5 Yoshikaze 9-4

M6

9-4 Ichinojo M7

M8

(x) 8-5 Chiyonokuni M9

10-3 Takanoiwa M10

Pursuer bout between Kisenosato and Hakuho tomorrow, preceded by Harumafuji-Goeido. Call me crazy, but in this basho there might be a greater likelihood of Harumafuji losing to Goeido tomorrow than to Hakuho on Day 15.

Takayasu will have a bit of an odd bout tomorrow - he's facing Terunofuji and if he wins, he could be preventing his own promotion to sekiwake by helping to demote Terunofuji into that spot. Elsewhere in the sanyaku race it's Tochiozan against Shodai, and last not least our unlikely fourth yusho contender Takanoiwa will be getting his first serious test against Takarafuji.

Kitaharima's last-ditch attempt to save his makuuchi ranking started out with a big ol' henka today, giving him the win against Tamawashi. Daieisho and Endo were also victorious, putting them level with Sokokurai and Kagayaki in needing one more win for safety. Meanwhile Toyohibiki is already safe after today.

The main news in juryo were wins for both J1 and losses for both J2 (one of them being Hidenoumi's up in makuuchi). We're still without any outright promotable rikishi, but it's looking quite likely now that all available spots will be filled without involving major banzuke luck. That's probably bad news for Chiyomaru and Amakaze who are still in promotable-by-the-numbers territory (needing two more wins of course), but could find themselves blocked out by higher-ranking contenders.

M6 Endo 2-11 (1)

...

M9 Sokokurai 4-9 (1)

M10

(x) kyujo Toyonoshima M11 Daieisho 5-8 (1)

M12

(o) 6-7 Toyohibiki M13 Aminishiki kyujo (x)

(1) 6-7 Kagayaki M14

(2) 5-8 Kitaharima M15 Sadanofuji 3-10 (x)

M16 ---

(1) 7-6 Gagamaru J1 Azumaryu 7-6 (1)

(~) 6-7 Hidenoumi J2 Chiyotairyu 6-7 (~)

(1) 8-5 Seiro J3 Chiyoshoma 8-5 (1)

(2) 8-5 Homarefuji J4

J5 Amuru 8-5 (2)

(~) 8-5 Kyokushuho J6

J7

J8 Ura 9-4 (~)

(2) 10-3 Chiyomaru J9

J10

J11 Amakaze 11-2 (2)

Lots of direct matchups among the contenders tomorrow with Seiro-Amuru, Ura-Chiyoshoma, Hidenoumi-Kyokushuho, Gagamaru-Amakaze and Chiyotairyu-Azumaryu. Who knows what that's going to do to the race...

The list of demotion candidates was cut in half today as Tsurugisho, Asasekiryu and Kotoeko all reached their safety targets. Fujiazuma and Kitataiki (sending makushita visitor Sakigake to MK) also improved their positions, only Kyokutaisei was a loser on this day.

Down in makushita Yamaguchi was also taken out of the promotion queue as he failed to secure the 7-0 zensho record; together with Sakigake's loss that now means a certain move up to juryo for Wakanoshima, regardless of his final bout.

(1) 4-9 Fujiazuma J8

J9

(o) 6-7 Tsurugisho J10 Asasekiryu 6-7 (o)

(x) 2-11 Dewahayate J11

J12 Kitataiki 5-8 (2)

(1) 6-7 Kyokutaisei J13

(o) 8-5 Kotoeko J14 Shimanoumi 4-9 (x)

(o) 5-1 Kizenryu Ms1 Sakigake 3-4 (x)

Ms2 Akiseyama 3-3

Ms3 Wakanoshima 5-1 (o)

4-3 Daishoho Ms4

3-3 Meisei Ms5

...

Ms8 Yamaguchi 6-1 (x)

Two rikishi - Akiseyama and makekoshi Tamaasuka - were prepared for exchange duty for the final two days (one each day), but due to Chiyonokuni's withdrawal there's no outright need now as the sekitori divisions are even in number again. Consequently we're not getting any crossover bouts tomorrow, with both fillers having to wait for senshuraku to complete their basho.

Though in fact we could even be seeing four visitors on Day 15 if the schedule makers deem it necessary. The top 4 rikishi at 5-1 have been held back, presumably to see which of the following two options should be put in place:

A)

Ms1e Kizenryu - juryo

Ms3w Wakanoshima - juryo

Ms7w Oyanagi - Ms21w Kairyu

B)

Ms1e Kizenryu - Ms7w Oyanagi

Ms3w Wakanoshima - Ms21w Kairyu

The only promotion zone rikishi in action tomorrow will be prospect Meisei who goes for his kachikoshi against veteran Aozora.

Edited July 22, 2016 by Asashosakari

[Nantonoyama 248]

How high would you think Amakaze will go if he goes 13-2? Does he have a chance to go to Makuuchi division?

Amakaze at 13-2 would end up in M16-J1. It *would* depend on the others rikishi record and whether there is a seat available for him. I would say quite unlikely, but not impossible. Last two J11 with 13-2 end up in the last makuuchi rank : Ichihara and Chiyohakuho, both in 2008.

[Gurowake 4,016]

How high would you think Amakaze will go if he goes 13-2? Does he have a chance to go to Makuuchi division?

No matter what, Ura will stay in Juryo, right?

Amakaze certainly has a chance, but I think anyone near the top of the division with a promotable record will be promoted first. The by-the-numbers approach tends to be followed fairly well for most scores, but ones that are near the end of the distribution, whether low or high, tend to be pushed slightly more towards the middle such that rikishi with 2 wins probably won't be dumped all 11 ranks and at the same time one with 2 losses is not going to expect an 11 rank increase. After Tochinoshin's first Juryo yusho on his come back, they needed to take one rikishi for Makuuchi who wasn't by-the-numbers promotable, and there was a huge logjam at the top of Juryo. While many people thought Tochinoshin might get the last spot in Makuuchi due to being a former Komusubi or whatever given he was one of the ones closest to being by-the-numbers promotable, he actually ended up at J5.

I think Ura has a remote chance, but not much of one. There's plenty of matches still to be held and things can go any which way, but he'll need the promotion contenders to mostly lose their matches while he wins both of his. We'll have a better idea just what needs to happen tomorrow.

[Gurowake 4,016]

Calculations done on a spreadsheet originally written for Nagoya 2014; I tend to do this whenever there's still a lot up in the air with respect to the Yusho race with 2 days to go.

Among the 4 rikishi with at least 10 wins, there will be 6 more matches in the last two days, as two of the matches are between such rikishi. That gives 2^6 = 64 different scenarios.

In 38 of these scenarios, there would be a clear winner: Hakuho 6 times, Harumafuji 28, Kisenosato 3, Takanoiwa 1. In 22 of the scenarios the winner would have 12 wins, and in the other 16 it would be Harumafuji with 13 (one quarter of them, as one would expect).

In 19 of the total scenarios, there would be a 2-man playoff. It would involve Hakuho 8 times, Harumafuji 16, Kisenosato 7, and Takanoiwa 7. Every 2-man playoff would be between those who finished with 12 wins.

In 4 of the scenarios, there would be a 3-way playoff at 12 wins, and they always would involve Harumafuji and Takanoiwa. In two of them the third would be Kisenosato, and in the other two the third would be Hakuho.

In 3 of the scenarios, there would be a playoff between those at 11 wins, in which Harumafuji, Hakuho, and Kisenosato would all participate. One of these scenarios would have at least a 3-way playoff not involving Takanoiwa, and the other 2 would have at least a 4-way playoff that does involve him. These correspond to Takanoiwa winning 0 and 1 match while the others end up at 11 wins (Takanoiwa winning both matches in this subset of scenarios is the one time he wins outright). In the case of these 11-win playoffs, there may be additional rikishi (Shodai, Yoshikaze, Ichinojo, Takarafuji, or Takayasu). I'm going to not bother delving into these scenarios any further.

If all scenarios were equally likely, playoffs equally likely to be won by each participant, and the 11-win playoff scenarios all ignored, the winning chances of the 4 rikishi would be: Hakuho 17.49%, Harumafuji 61.20%, Kisenosato 11.75% and Takanoiwa 9.56%. Obviously these need to be modulated by the fact that Takanoiwa is less likely to win his matches and Hakuho more likely, but I'm not taking this any further.

[Gurowake 4,016]

our unlikely fourth yusho contender Takanoiwa will be getting his first serious test against Takarafuji.

I'd say Aoiyama was as much of a serious test as Takarafuji, at least going by my own general strength ratings. Maybe Aoiyama's style doesn't really present much of a serious test because he so easily beats himself, while Takarafuji is defensively quite strong.

[Nantonoyama 248]

If all scenarios were equally likely, playoffs equally likely to be won by each participant, and the 11-win playoff scenarios all ignored, the winning chances of the 4 rikishi would be: Hakuho 17.49%, Harumafuji 61.20%, Kisenosato 11.75% and Takanoiwa 9.56%. Obviously these need to be modulated by the fact that Takanoiwa is less likely to win his matches and Hakuho more likely, but I'm not taking this any further.

This is very interesting, thank you very much!

We could extend this study by weighting each scenario by its occurrence probability, as you mention.

A probability for a scenario to occur would then be the product of the probabilities of all single-bout outcomes

We could base this system on the historical bout record between the two rikishis involved. Or the odds from Odd Sumo game (don't know if the algorithm is publically available)

[Asojima 2,873]

If all scenarios were equally likely, playoffs equally likely to be won by each participant, and the 11-win playoff scenarios all ignored, the winning chances of the 4 rikishi would be: Hakuho 17.49%, Harumafuji 61.20%, Kisenosato 11.75% and Takanoiwa 9.56%. Obviously these need to be modulated by the fact that Takanoiwa is less likely to win his matches and Hakuho more likely, but I'm not taking this any further.

This is very interesting, thank you very much!

We could extend this study by weighting each scenario by its occurrence probability, as you mention.

A probability for a scenario to occur would then be the product of the probabilities of all single-bout outcomes

We could base this system on the historical bout record between the two rikishis involved. Or the odds from Odd Sumo game (don't know if the algorithm is publically available)

We could also introduce a better chance of prediction accuracy by purchasing a set of dice.

[Gurowake 4,016]

If all scenarios were equally likely, playoffs equally likely to be won by each participant, and the 11-win playoff scenarios all ignored, the winning chances of the 4 rikishi would be: Hakuho 17.49%, Harumafuji 61.20%, Kisenosato 11.75% and Takanoiwa 9.56%. Obviously these need to be modulated by the fact that Takanoiwa is less likely to win his matches and Hakuho more likely, but I'm not taking this any further.

This is very interesting, thank you very much!

We could extend this study by weighting each scenario by its occurrence probability, as you mention.

A probability for a scenario to occur would then be the product of the probabilities of all single-bout outcomes

We could base this system on the historical bout record between the two rikishis involved. Or the odds from Odd Sumo game (don't know if the algorithm is publically available)

I certainly have my own probabilities calculated for each match, the problem is that the spreadsheet that does the above calculation is absolutely 100% dependent on the fact that all scenarios are equally likely. It was not written with the idea of inserting actual winning probabilities. Certainly I could write another one that would do that, but that's more work. All I have to do to come up with the above numbers is just input the current set of matches and win totals, and everything that I mention in the previous post is calculated automatically; more work is required typing it up than generating it.

[word20 21]

Who do you think will be promoted to Makuuchi division from Juryo in september?

[lackmaker 434]

Calculations done on a spreadsheet originally written for Nagoya 2014; I tend to do this whenever there's still a lot up in the air with respect to the Yusho race with 2 days to go.

Among the 4 rikishi with at least 10 wins, there will be 6 more matches in the last two days, as two of the matches are between such rikishi. That gives 2^6 = 64 different scenarios.

In 38 of these scenarios, there would be a clear winner: Hakuho 6 times, Harumafuji 28, Kisenosato 3, Takanoiwa 1. In 22 of the scenarios the winner would have 12 wins, and in the other 16 it would be Harumafuji with 13 (one quarter of them, as one would expect).

In 19 of the total scenarios, there would be a 2-man playoff. It would involve Hakuho 8 times, Harumafuji 16, Kisenosato 7, and Takanoiwa 7. Every 2-man playoff would be between those who finished with 12 wins.

In 4 of the scenarios, there would be a 3-way playoff at 12 wins, and they always would involve Harumafuji and Takanoiwa. In two of them the third would be Kisenosato, and in the other two the third would be Hakuho.

In 3 of the scenarios, there would be a playoff between those at 11 wins, in which Harumafuji, Hakuho, and Kisenosato would all participate. One of these scenarios would have at least a 3-way playoff not involving Takanoiwa, and the other 2 would have at least a 4-way playoff that does involve him. These correspond to Takanoiwa winning 0 and 1 match while the others end up at 11 wins (Takanoiwa winning both matches in this subset of scenarios is the one time he wins outright). In the case of these 11-win playoffs, there may be additional rikishi (Shodai, Yoshikaze, Ichinojo, Takarafuji, or Takayasu). I'm going to not bother delving into these scenarios any further.

If all scenarios were equally likely, playoffs equally likely to be won by each participant, and the 11-win playoff scenarios all ignored, the winning chances of the 4 rikishi would be: Hakuho 17.49%, Harumafuji 61.20%, Kisenosato 11.75% and Takanoiwa 9.56%. Obviously these need to be modulated by the fact that Takanoiwa is less likely to win his matches and Hakuho more likely, but I'm not taking this any further.

Impressive.i take it your certain my mother's date of birth is not a factor.

[rhyen 1,823]

Who do you think will be promoted to Makuuchi division from Juryo in september?

Looking at the Torikumi (*if they win, in order of likelihood)

*Gagamaru vs Chiyoo

*Ura vs *Azumaryu

*Amakaze vs *Amuru

*Homarefuji vs Kyokutaisei

*Seiro vs Daiki

Onosho vs *Chiyoshoma

Asasekiryu vs *Chiyotairyu

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Day 14 (results, text-only results):

10-4 Hakuho Y1 Kakuryu 2-2-10

12-2 Harumafuji Y2

11-3 Kisenosato O1 Kotoshogiku 1-6-7

7-7 Goeido O2 Terunofuji 7-7

Was it clever sumo by Kisenosato or was it just Hakuho overcommitting in his charge? Either way, a tsukiotoshi victory at the edge has kept the ozeki in yusho contention. He's still a longshot though as leader Harumafuji was also successful on Day 14, beating a spirited Goeido who now finds himself 7-7. That's also true for Terunofuji after a loss to Takayasu, but of course it's a great deal more dangerous for him as he's already kadoban this month.

Kaisei failed to secure his sekiwake ranking for now and will get his last opportunity tomorrow - against Terunofuji. A Kaisei victory would serve to put both at the third-highest rank for Aki basho, a Terunofuji win would save his ozeki rank and boot Kaisei down to komusubi. Takayasu could be the odd man out in the first scenario here, which would be rather bitter as he's beaten both rikishi who would block his path. On the upside, he does have the opportunity to move up to 11 wins (against Ichinojo), which historically has been good enough to force a promotion even into a third slot.

Either way, there are at most two sanyaku slots available for aspiring maegashira, and today's results have thinned the field. Tochiozan took a major step by picking up his kachikoshi against Shodai. Okinoumi lost to Chiyootori and is definitely out as he can no longer pass Tochiozan and Takarafuji, and Ichinojo is also a goner after his surprise loss to division rookie Kitaharima. Yoshikaze maintained his chances, sending Sadanoumi to makekoshi, and Takanoiwa prevailed in the contendership highlight bout against Takarafuji.

7-7 Kaisei S Tochinoshin 5-9 (x)

(x) 2-12 Kotoyuki K Takayasu 10-4

M1 Tochiozan 8-6

(x) 7-7 Okinoumi M2 Takarafuji 9-5

M3

M4

9-5 Shodai M5 Yoshikaze 10-4

M6

(x) 9-5 Ichinojo M7

M8

M9

11-3 Takanoiwa M10

I was tempted to (x) Shodai as well as he's very unlikely to be put ahead of Tochiozan even with 10 wins, but stranger things have happened before so... Takanoiwa is technically out altogether, being unable to pass Tochiozan/Takarafuji/Yoshikaze by the numbers, but he's got the potential opportunity to grab the yusho in a playoff tomorrow which would almost certainly see him promoted to sanyaku (either at somebody else's expense or as a third komusubi) - unlikely as that whole scenario is, of course.

Speaking of the yusho, as noted elsewhere Harumafuji's record as a frontrunner is quite positive, if somewhat outdated, so Kisenosato and Takanoiwa may not actually stand much of a chance to force the playoff tomorrow. At any rate, early on it's Takanoiwa versus Yoshikaze, and later Kisenosato will go up against KK-seeking Goeido, before the two yokozuna clash in the musubi-no-ichiban. Rounding out the sanyaku soroibumi are Terunofuji and Kaisei in their 7-7 decider.

Also of interest: The aforementioned Takayasu-Ichinojo matchup, and the confrontation of Tochiozan and Takarafuji. The loser of that one just might miss out on sanyaku, depending on how the rest of the torikumi unfolds.

Day 14 also brought some more clarity in who's going down to juryo, or rather in who's definitely not going down. Endo picked up his third win of the basho and should be safe now (hurray for another one-legged 11-4 in September!), and Sokokurai also managed to complete his second-week turnaround by improving to 5-9, against top-ranked maegashira Mitakeumi no less. Daieisho and Kagayaki found themselves on the kuroboshi side of today's schedule and continue to need one more win to stay for certain, as does Kitaharima now after the mentioned stunner victory over roughly three times bigger Ichinojo.

Anyway, no matter what happens to them we do of course have three slots available already, and they will be taken by...err, nobody? 14 days into the basho and still not a single juryo rikishi has posted a promotable win total. I've had to go back quite a way to uncover another basho like that, and eventually ended up at Hatsu 1996 (!) which "boasted" a similar lack of pre-senshuraku contenders. (In the end it didn't matter there because this was smack in one of the worst "8-7's for everyone!" phases in sumo history and they even had to overdemote somebody just to make room for one promotee.)

Getting back to the day's actual results: Obviously none of the four high-ranked rikishi who only needed one more win were able to score that victory. In fact, among the top 6 on the banzuke only Chiyotairyu was successful today, while Hidenoumi is now outright MK after losing to Kyokushuho. Amuru and Homarefuji were the winners of the day (both literally and figuratively), putting themselves well back into contention.

Meanwhile, the juryo yusho is decided a day early after Amakaze won himself plus profited from pursuer Chiyomaru's loss to low-ranked Kyokutaisei. Congrats!

M6 Endo 3-11 (o)

...

M9 Sokokurai 5-9 (o)

M10

(x) kyujo Toyonoshima M11 Daieisho 5-9 (1)

M12

M13 Aminishiki kyujo (x)

(1) 6-8 Kagayaki M14

(1) 6-8 Kitaharima M15 Sadanofuji 3-11 (x)

M16 ---

(1) 7-7 Gagamaru J1 Azumaryu 7-7 (1)

(x) 6-8 Hidenoumi J2 Chiyotairyu 7-7 (~)

(1) 8-6 Seiro J3 Chiyoshoma 8-6 (1)

(1) 9-5 Homarefuji J4

J5 Amuru 9-5 (1)

(~) 9-5 Kyokushuho J6

J7

J8 Ura 10-4 (~)

(~) 10-4 Chiyomaru J9

J10

J11 Amakaze 12-2 (1)

Starting with Kyokushuho-Chiyomaru in bout 5, almost the entire Day 15 juryo schedule is one big Best of One Fall promotion tournament. It's a complete mess, but it sure is interesting. (Laughing...) Homarefuji is the nominal #1 in the current promotion queue, but even he can't afford to lose tomorrow as there are no less than six guys who can pass him by winning.

Up in makuuchi Kitaharima will try to complete his come-from-behind survival act against 5-9 Sokokurai. Kagayaki faces 7-7 Daishomaru, and Daieisho has to deal with 8-6 Arawashi.

The juryo<->makushita race isn't quite done yet either, although it's much less complex. Kyokutaisei's kill shot to Chiyomaru's yusho chances also served to secure his own juryo spot, while Fujiazuma still has to worry after losing to Daiki. Kitataiki is nominally demotable now, but just might get lucky.

Talented Meisei achieved his last-minute kachikoshi, but is unlikely to figure into the promotion decisions from Ms5.

(1) 4-10 Fujiazuma J8

J9

J10

(x) 3-11 Dewahayate J11

J12 Kitataiki 5-9 (~)

(o) 7-7 Kyokutaisei J13

J14 Shimanoumi 4-10 (x)

(o) 5-1 Kizenryu Ms1

Ms2 Akiseyama 3-3

Ms3 Wakanoshima 5-1 (o)

4-3 Daishoho Ms4

4-3 Meisei Ms5

It's Kitataiki yet again on exchange duty tomorrow, trying to ruin Akiseyama's basho and maybe save himself due to a lack of strong promotion records. Fujiazuma just might be rescued already, as he's likely ahead of Kitataiki anyway and they'd have to dig rather deep to find a fourth promotee (definitely Daishoho, even further if Akiseyama loses).

For the record, possible competitors to Meisei for the last-in spot would be Ms7e Ryuden at 5-2, Ms7w Oyanagi possibly at 6-1 (needs to win tomorrow) and Ms8w Yamaguchi at 6-1. Given the usual preference for top 5 rikishi in the promotion scheme, I don't think any of these have a chance, though.

Oh yeah, they haven't bothered to send the 5-1 duo into juryo for tomorrow, so it's option B from yesterday's post. Makekoshi Tamaasuka does of course get to round out the juryo schedule, going against disappointed Dewahayate.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,016]

I was tempted to (x) Shodai as well as he's very unlikely to be put ahead of Tochiozan even with 10 wins, but stranger things have happened before so...

Well, Shodai did face Harumafuji and all the Ozeki left in the tournament and will meet Tochinoshin, so it's not completely unreasonable to go by the numbers and put him above Tochiozan. Given what happened to Mitakeumi last time one might say that such a new rikishi might be disfavored except for the fact that Shodai actually faced those Ozeki and even beat two of them, whereas Mitakeumi had never faced any high ranked rikishi yet.

Takanoiwa is technically out altogether, being unable to pass Tochiozan/Takarafuji/Yoshikaze by the numbers, but he's got the potential opportunity to grab the yusho in a playoff tomorrow which would almost certainly see him promoted to sanyaku (either at somebody else's expense or as a third komusubi) - unlikely as that whole scenario is, of course.

What makes you so sure they'd promote him if he won the Yusho? Kyokutenho wasn't, and he was ranked higher - high enough to have the numbers to be promoted, unlike Takanoiwa. Ok, Takanoiwa would have to defeat Harumafuji and probably Kisenosato, who are certainly better than Kotooshu who was the only Ozeki 'tenho beat, but the latter also beat Sekiwake Goeido. And regardless, I think playoff matches are completely ignored for banzuke making purposes (except possibly which Yokozuna to rank higher).

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Well, Shodai did face Harumafuji and all the Ozeki left in the tournament and will meet Tochinoshin, so it's not completely unreasonable to go by the numbers and put him above Tochiozan.

I probably should have been more clear - I wasn't insinuating a joi vs. not-joi advantage for Tochiozan, but rather a bonus for being M1-ranked.

What makes you so sure they'd promote him if he won the Yusho? Kyokutenho wasn't, and he was ranked higher - high enough to have the numbers to be promoted, unlike Takanoiwa. Ok, Takanoiwa would have to defeat Harumafuji and probably Kisenosato, who are certainly better than Kotooshu who was the only Ozeki 'tenho beat, but the latter also beat Sekiwake Goeido.

Defeating a yokozuna in the playoff would be very different from Kyokutenho defeating Tochiozan, both of whom kind of fell into that opportunity ass-backwards.

And regardless, I think playoff matches are completely ignored for banzuke making purposes (except possibly which Yokozuna to rank higher).

I would strongly dispute that - do you really believe Toyonoshima would have been M1 if he had defeated Hakuho?

[Gurowake 4,016]

I agree that it makes sense to consider who was beaten, whether in a playoff or not, but it's been my impression that it's not particularly considered. Maybe I just haven't seen, and there may not have even been any, cases in which it is clear that it was taken into consideration.

[Gurowake 4,016]

One thing I just thought about is that there's a possibility that Terunofuji is demoted and no extra sanyaku slots are awarded, leading to a M16w on the next banzuke. Of course, the last time the banzuke expanded at the lower end they ended up effectively overdemoting someone that could have fit in that new spot by the numbers, and in favor of someone very very far from a normally promotable record, so probably Daieisho will probably need that win to stay in regardless. (And of course, a 7-7 kadoban Ozeki has never lost.)

[robnplunder 975]

How far would Toyonoshima & Aminishki be ranked at Juryo? OTOH, they opened up two more Makuuchi slots for Juryo rikish. Despite the lack of promotable Juryo rikishi, having two more slots should benefit the ones on borderline.

(Edited - forgot Osunarashi who is out as well. But Osu is at M3 and likely to stay within Makuchi division for the next basho?)

Edited July 23, 2016 by robnplunder

[rhyen 1,823]

Looks like Gagamaru, Homarefuji and Amakaze are the three promotees, the rest will be down to luck.

If Ura gets the spots that Kitaharima vacated (over Chiyoshoma & Kyokushuho, they might be even more buzz than Endo next basho?

Edited July 24, 2016 by rhyen

[Sokkenaiyama 80]

Huge if. Unlikely to happen, too, since those two guys are definitely ahead mathematically, and the bias is usually towards the guy with the higher rank when it comes to promotion.

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Day 15 (results, text-only results):

10-5 Hakuho Y1 Kakuryu 2-2-11

13-2 Harumafuji Y2

12-3 Kisenosato O1 Kotoshogiku 1-6-8

7-8 Goeido O2 Terunofuji 8-7

Kisenosato did what he had to do and sent Goeido to makekoshi to maintain his own yusho chances, but it was for naught when Harumafuji demonstrated his superiority over Hakuho (at least for this basho) in the musubi-no-ichiban. Congrats to the yusho winner!

Meanwhile, Kisenosato has now posted 38 wins in three ozeki tournaments, the first one to do so without then getting promoted to yokozuna since 1994, the first one to not score any yusho in the run since 1989, and the very first one to not even get a shot at any playoff.

It was a wacky basho overall in the high ranks, with a yokozuna and an ozeki out early and Hakuho tying his worst complete-basho record as a yokozuna. In happier news Terunofuji barely saved his rank today, beating Kaisei. He'll be replaced on the kadoban carousel for Aki basho by Goeido and Kotoshogiku.

With that result in today's high-ranker 7-7 matchup we find ourselves with two available sekiwake slots after all. Takayasu left no doubt about his promotion, winning #11 against Ichinojo for good measure, and the West spot should be claimed by Takarafuji who henka'ed out Tochiozan for the honours. Kaisei is going down to the komusubi ranks, and will likely be joined by Tochiozan, with Yoshikaze perhaps also in the conversation. (I'm betting on Tochiozan though.) Shodai had a chance to play a role as well, but missed out on double digit wins against Tochinoshin.

Takanoiwa finishes with an impressive 12-3 record after beating Yoshikaze today, and while he didn't get to reach a yusho playoff and won't be moving up to sanyaku, he gets to console himself with his first-ever special award, a kanto-sho. Takarafuji has received that prize as well, while Takayasu took the gino-sho and Yoshikaze was rewarded with the shukun-sho for beating yusho winner Harumafuji. Snubbed, however, was Okinoumi despite also winning against Harumafuji and finishing in KK territory on the final day.

7-8 Kaisei S Tochinoshin 6-9 (x)

(x) 2-13 Kotoyuki K Takayasu 11-4

M1 Tochiozan 8-7 (?)

M2 Takarafuji 10-5 (o)

M3

M4

(x) 9-6 Shodai M5 Yoshikaze 10-5 (?)

M6

M7

M8

M9

(x) 12-3 Takanoiwa M10

Three lower maegashira were still on the watchlist, and only one of them had a positive senshuraku: Kagayaki managed to beat KK-seeking Daishomaru to finish 7-8 and will still feature in makuuchi in two months. Kitaharima and Daieisho lost, and the former should be headed down to juryo while the latter just might hang on.

The seven juryo rikishi who were one win off of promotable records finished 4-3 on the day, which was enough to turn the situation from complete mess to not-that-bad. Comments to follow below the table.

(x) kyujo Toyonoshima M11 Daieisho 5-10 (?)

M12

M13 Aminishiki kyujo (x)

(o) 7-8 Kagayaki M14

(x) 6-9 Kitaharima M15 Sadanofuji 4-11 (x)

M16 ---

(o) 8-7 Gagamaru J1 Azumaryu 7-8 (x)

J2 Chiyotairyu 7-8 (x)

(?) 8-7 Seiro J3 Chiyoshoma 9-6 (o)

(o) 10-5 Homarefuji J4

J5 Amuru 9-6 (x)

(?) 10-5 Kyokushuho J6

J7

J8 Ura 11-4 (?)

(x) 10-5 Chiyomaru J9

J10

J11 Amakaze 13-2 (?)

IMHO pretty safe to conclude is the following:

- Sadanofuji and Kitaharima are joining injured Toyonoshima and Aminishiki on the way to juryo.

- Definitely going up are Homarefuji, Gagamaru and Chiyoshoma.

- The fourth spot will be decided between Kyokushuho, yusho winner Amakaze and perhaps Seiro...my virtual money's on Kyokushuho.

- The remaining two from that trio and maaaaybe Ura are in the running for Daieisho's position - I suspect they'll punt this tricky decision and just allow Daieisho to remain in makuuchi. If there's a fifth promotee, I'm going with Seiro courtesy of some high-rank bonus.

Kitataiki did proceed to ruin Akiseyama's basho, so the Kise-beya heavyweight (who was Kitataiki's stablemate at one point) won't be returning to the paid ranks. It was arguably a better basho than one could have expected after his 1-14 in May, but it's still Akiseyama's first makushita MK in over four years. At 31 years of age it remains to be seen if there's another comeback in the big guy.

Kitataiki finishes 6-9 after beating three makushita opponents in the last four days of the tournament, but it may have been too little, too late. He's joined on the bubble by Fujiazuma who lost today to finish 4-11, his fourth straight makekoshi. More comments again after the table.

(?) 4-11 Fujiazuma J8

J9

J10

(x) 3-12 Dewahayate J11

J12 Kitataiki 6-9 (?)

J13

J14 Shimanoumi 4-11 (x)

(o) 5-2 Kizenryu Ms1

Ms2 Akiseyama 3-4 (x)

Ms3 Wakanoshima 5-2 (o)

(?) 4-3 Daishoho Ms4

(?) 4-3 Meisei Ms5

Kizenryu and Wakanoshima both lost their final bouts to their lower-ranked 5-1 opponents, but it doesn't look like it's going to cost them much - there won't be any space in juryo down to J10 anyway, so instead of an unlucky small 6-1 promotion they're now set to receive rather generous 5-2 promotions, as far as I can see. They're taking the spots vacated by Dewahayate and Shimanoumi, of course.

Kitataiki should be next in the demotion line, potentially to be exchanged against Daishoho. As mentioned back in post #16 Daishoho has been a makushita-joi mainstay for the last year, and I hope they reward his efforts instead of sparing the veteran with the 8-MK streak.

Possible swap number 4 is even more tricky, and I'm leaning towards Fujiazuma getting lucky here. Meisei is completely new in high makushita and they may not be too keen on handing him a fluky promotion right now. Ms7w Oyanagi (6-1) is a theoretical alternative choice for the slot, but much the same "he's too new up here for generous treatment" reasoning applies to him.

That concludes the basho on this front, but as always we're less than 72 hours away from the first bit of banzuke-relevant news for Aki, with the juryo promotees being announced on Wednesday morning.

Thanks for reading and discussing! :-)

Late edit: I forgot to include that the jonidan playoff was won by Kizaki, so Ikegawa has failed to win back-to-back yusho, though his winning streak in official bouts remains intact at 14-0. Video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65bGAnK7XkM

Edited July 24, 2016 by Asashosakari

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

Congrats to the yusho winner!

Meanwhile, Kisenosato has now posted 38 wins in three ozeki tournaments, the first one to do so without then getting promoted to yokozuna since 1994, the first one to not score any yusho in the run since 1989, and the very first one to not even get a shot at any playoff.

Thanks for reading and discussing! :-)

Congrats to HMFJ on #8-I believe he will retire with 10.

That 1989 Run was five(!) tournaments.

Your Welcome, thanks for the effort. :-D

[Gurowake 4,016]

Things are going to be crowded at the top of the maegashira ranks as expected. We have all the following that would "normally" be ranked at least M1 that aren't getting a sanyaku spot:

Whichever of Tochiozan 8-7 M1w or Yoshikaze 10-5 M5w isn't promoted

Okinoumi 8-7 M2e

Tochinoshin 6-9 S1w

Takanoiwa 12-3 M10e

Then we also have Shodai 9-6 M5e right behind them that could potentially be put ahead of some of them.

The rest of the Makuuchi banzuke doesn't look particularly easy to put together either. There are basically no suitable candidates for most of the mid-maegashira ranks. I expect that Chiyonokuni, Tamawashi, Arawashi, and Nishikigi will all get some pretty heavy promotions due to that. There's a few 6-9s that might end up only one rank lower, and 7-8s that might not get demoted at all. Juryo promotions will be very far into the division despite being very minimal over the normally required amount. Endo and Osunaarashi will be somewhere near the bottom, but could be practically anywhere. There's very very little that falls into place here.

Edited July 24, 2016 by Gurowake

[rhyen 1,823]

Geez, the rikishis must be enjoying giving the shimpan team these tricky GTB scenarios.

[Gurowake 4,016]

Quick attempt at Juryo and top of Makushita, following Asashosakari's best guesses on the borders (because I honestly have no clue):

East	Rank	West
Amakaze(13-2 J11w)	J1	Ura(11-4 J8w)
Kitaharima(6-9 M15e)	J2	Seiro(8-7 J3e)
Amuru(9-6 J5w)	J3	Azumaryu(7-8 J1w)
Hidenoumi(7-8 J2e)	J4	Chiyotairyu(7-8 J2w)
Chiyomaru(10-5 J9e)	J5	Toyonoshima(0-0 M11e)
Ishiura(7-8 J5e)	J6	Sadanofuji(4-11 M15w)
Daiki(10-5 J13w)	J7	Aminishiki(0-0 M13w)
Chiyoo(7-8 J7e)	J8	Tsurugisho(8-7 J10e)
Sato(6-9 J6w)	J9	Asasekiryu(8-7 J10w)
Satoyama(5-10 J4w)	J10	Kotoeko(9-6 J14e)
Kizenryu(5-2 Ms1e)	J11	Asabenkei(5-10 J7w)
Wakanoshima(5-2 Ms3w)	J12	Onosho(7-8 J12e)
Asahisho(5-10 J9w)	J13	Kyokutaisei(7-8 J13e)
Fujiazuma(4-11 J8e)	J14	Daishoho(4-3 Ms4e)
Kitataiki(6-9 J12w)	Ms1	Oyanagi(6-1 Ms7w)
Yamaguchi(6-1 Ms8w)	Ms2	Meisei(4-3 Ms5e)
Ryuden(5-2 Ms7e)	Ms3	Sakamoto(4-3 Ms6e)
Ryusei(7-0 Ms44w)	Ms4	Sakigake(3-4 Ms1w)
Dewahayate(3-12 J11e)	Ms5	Rikishin(4-3 Ms8e)
Akiseyama(3-4 Ms2w)	Ms6	Shimanoumi(4-11 J14w)
Mugendai(5-2 Ms13w)	Ms7	Tamaasuka(3-4 Ms3e)
Iwasaki(4-3 Ms10w)	Ms8	Kairyu(6-1 Ms21w)
Tochihiryu(5-2 Ms15w)	Ms9	Tokushinho(4-3 Ms13e)
Tochimaru(5-2 Ms18e)	Ms10	Akua(5-2 Ms18w)
Onami(4-3 Ms14w)	Ms11	Shiba(6-1 Ms28w)
Tenkaiho(3-4 Ms6w)	Ms12	Shotenro(5-2 Ms22e)
Masunosho(4-3 Ms17e)	Ms13	Sagatsukasa(6-1 Ms34w)
Irodori(4-3 Ms17w)	Ms14	Asakoki(7-0 Sd16w)
Aozora(3-4 Ms10e)	Ms15	Higonojo(4-3 Ms21e)

[robnplunder 975]

IMHO pretty safe to conclude is the following:

- Sadanofuji and Kitaharima are joining injured Toyonoshima and Aminishiki on the way to juryo.

- Definitely going up are Homarefuji, Gagamaru and Chiyoshoma.

- The fourth spot will be decided between Kyokushuho, yusho winner Amakaze and perhaps Seiro...my virtual money's on Kyokushuho.

- The remaining two from that trio and maaaaybe Ura are in the running for Daieisho's position - I suspect they'll punt this tricky decision and just allow Daieisho to remain in makuuchi. If there's a fifth promotee, I'm going with Seiro courtesy of some high-rank bonus.

If the basho was run by USA marketing minded folks, Ura will be promoted in a heartbeat. His popularity will help the rating. But as is, I don't think Ura will get promoted this time. Ura impressed me though. Even after an injury, he kept on winning.