Basho Talk - Nagoya Basho 2016 +++ Spoiler Alert! +++

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

I have a feeling that all the three Mongolian-born yokozuna may retire in 2018. By 2018, Hakuho will reach Makuuchi 1000 wins and 40+ yusho.

If Kise reaches win 13 next basho, whether yusho or not, NSK may recommend promotion anyway. However, I don't think he can win more than 11 next basho. As I said before, the Sept basho will be very competitive.

That would be 51 wins against 9 losses in 4 tournaments. I know I saw something about "49/4" being a threshold of sorts. I cant remember if that was official or just someone's good idea. Although some here are tired of the "Kisenosato" discussion, I find it engaging, since those of us who are not quite on the "expert" level as others are doing research, watching videos and getting more knowledgeable about the sport and its history.

With the NSK coming straight out and saying "A tournament win in Sept. would please everyone" I would think that it should be obvious that a yusho is needed to get his tsuna. The announcement explicity had no exact number of wins, hence their way of saying "Just get one, and your good" I would LOVE to see him get it without a yusho at 13 (or even 14) wins, but the naysayers would kill that before it got off the table.

When I re-started my coverage of sumo last year in January, I was NOT a Kisenosato fan. However, as of late, he has grown on me as a competitor, and his tsunatori is engaging at the level that one would wanna see a Japanese Yokozuna just as a change of pace. Tsuna or Not, Kisenosato has won me over as a fan.

Ozekiwake Goeido? That's another story entirely..............

Edited July 25, 2016 by ScottyJoyJrBebe

[Rocks 1,807]

Well I am very happy for Harumafuji, he seems to be in the shadows a lot to Hakuho, and often is the spoiler to Kise's quest for that tsuna. I'm really hoping that he will get to join the 10 yusho club before he retires, heck even get 11 so he's in the top 10!

Hakuho is obviously injured, anybody who's paid close attention can tell that he's got something but he's very good at not making it obvious to the casual fan or the people in the stands. He has to be careful though, at some point people are going to figure him out more, and he's not getting any younger. And the younger rikishi that are coming up will start beating him, though he's beating them right now. And when that starts happening, I think then he will look at hanging it up.

Kise, oh Kise. Luck has never been on your side, and somehow you can never manage to beat ALL the yokozuna in the basho. It's always losing to one or two yokozuna that you can't win. Not choking when you have the lead would help also. Hopefully we have a Japanese yokozuna someday, and hopefully you will finally get that yusho.

Terunofuji, always got to bring the suspense to the last day. There's going to come a point where he's not going to be so lucky and will find himself in the lower sanyaku. If I were him I would seriously consider taking a basho off to heal.

Goeido, what can I say? That 12-3 basho seems like a distant memory now. With Kotoshogiku having dropped out early we're going to have two kadoban ozeki, when was the last time that happened?

Kaisei fought hard but really he was able to get to 7 wins because he got two freebies against a yokozuna and an ozeki. He may have been only 5-10 if he didn't get those. Here's to hoping he can have a decent basho in Aki.

Tochinoshin, come back strong and keep us entertained!

I believe that Takarafuji is going to join Takayasu for the sekiwake slots next basho, and I believe that it will mark the third consecutive basho where both sekiwake are debuts.

Kotoyuki I think seriously needs to bring the bark back. He got shanked by the Kyokai because of it.

I'm going to love to see how Shodai does next basho, this kid is going to be something in the future, just needs to work on his tachi-ai a bit and not be so much a defensive wrestler.

Mitakeumi, keep working hard and learn, you're going to get better the more experience you get, I can feel it!

Congrats to Yoshikaze and Takanoiwa for getting those sansho and kinboshi (Yoshikaze)!

Endo, should take time off to heal.

Ichinojo, finishing with a 9-6 at mid-maegashira doesn't look promising when he's up in the joi next basho.

I really want to see Ura in makuuchi next basho, but I think we're going to see him get there in Kyushu!

I have a feeling that all the three Mongolian-born yokozuna may retire in 2018. By 2018, Hakuho will reach Makuuchi 1000 wins and 40+ yusho.

If Kise reaches win 13 next basho, whether yusho or not, NSK may recommend promotion anyway. However, I don't think he can win more than 11 next basho. As I said before, the Sept basho will be very competitive.

I think Kakuryu and Harumafuji may be retired by the end of 2017.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Speaking of which...

<Ad> A year-old - but still completely valid - poll about the longevity of the six same-generation top rankers could do with more votes and comments. ;-) </Ad>

[robnplunder 974]

I think Kakuryu and Harumafuji may be retired by the end of 2017.

I checked their (Kise, Hak, Haruma, and Kak) ages and they are all in between 30 - 32, Hak being the oldest. They are in their prime. Unless they have serious injury now, I don't see how any of them will retire in 2017. The age similarity is also the main reason I think Kise will not likely get an Yusho or be an Yokozuna. If Hak, Kak, and Haruma all retire before Kise, Kise will likely achieve Yusho. That is likely, IMO. Given that the wear and tear of sumo bouts will hurt smaller guys like Kak & Haru, and Hak being 2 year older than Kise.

[Rocks 1,807]

I think Kakuryu and Harumafuji may be retired by the end of 2017.

I checked their (Kise, Hak, Haruma, and Kak) ages and they are all in between 30 - 32, Hak being the oldest. They are in their prime. Unless they have serious injury now, I don't see how any of them will retire in 2017. The age similarity is also the main reason I think Kise will not likely get an Yusho or be an Yokozuna. If Hak, Kak, and Haruma all retire before Kise, Kise will likely achieve Yusho. That is likely, IMO. Given that the wear and tear of sumo bouts will hurt smaller guys like Kak & Haru, and Hak being 2 year older than Kise.

That is assuming the status quo remains the same. I don't think that will happen as the pressure from below will get greater and they will suffer more losses. Along with losing to Hakuho most of the time it will put real pressure on them to step down. Kisenesato will hang around awhile, especially if he doesn't make Yokozuna because he'll easily make KK for a long time yet.

[robnplunder 974]

That is assuming the status quo remains the same. I don't think that will happen as the pressure from below will get greater and they will suffer more losses. Along with losing to Hakuho most of the time it will put real pressure on them to step down. Kisenesato will hang around awhile, especially if he doesn't make Yokozuna because he'll easily make KK for a long time yet.

I think money, love for sumo, & attention from fans will get them to continue as long as they can.

[Benevolance 2,478]

I was under the impression that Yokozunae tend to retire a little bit younger than sumo average, presumably because they don't get a long tail career once they begin their decline?

[Kaiomitsuki 408]

Although Kisenosato failed to achieve his lofty goal, he will take his fourth shot at yokozuna promotion in September, according to the director of the Japan Sumo Association’s judging department.

“If he wins a championship (in September), everyone will be satisfied,” sumo elder Nishonoseki said.

Full Article: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2016/07/24/sumo/basho-reports/harumafuji-captures-title-nagoya-basho/

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) will leave it up to individual sports' governing bodies to decide if Russian competitors are clean and should be allowed to take part.

YDC and NSK said that Amuru from russia will not participate in the Olympic Badminton competitions, and that Orora, from Russia too, will not participate to the Olympic Diving competitions.

Board members disappointed to make such a decision.

[Kintamayama 44,354]

Reminds me of the KaioU days. Same text except for the no-yusho part. Choker, unlucky, strong yokozunas not letting him get the tsuna, etc.. etc..

Yes, there was the endless injuries factor as opposed to Kisenosato's Kyokutenhou-ness, but still, I remember the rhetoric.

At the time, all of us (fan-boys excluded) knew U would never make it. We just knew. I have the same feeling today about Kise, just like I KNOW Shoudai is a future Ozeki.

So even in 2001, when he won two bashos, most people did not expect him to become yokozuna someday ?

Expected sure, but, like me, were certain that it won't happen, at first because of his mental strength issues, and later, because of his endless injuries.

[Kintamayama 44,354]

So even in 2001, when he won two bashos, most people did not expect him to become yokozuna someday ?

Kinta is exaggerating a bit, perhaps because of some legendary debates with Kaio supporters in the early days of the forum. ;-) But I think he's talking more about ~2003 onward, not the time immediately after Kaio finally made it to ozeki (when many people certainly thought he'd now be waltzing straight through to the tsuna).

I don't think so. I think other than Kaikitsune who was an avid fan, nobody believed KaioU would make it. And pre- 2003 the forum was pretty new and with not that many members, no? The arguments were over on the SML back then..

Or maybe I'm just dreaming this and everyone except me was sure U was going to become a Yokozuna any minute now..

[Kintamayama 44,354]

Aw geez.. aw man.. Back in 2001 I used to do polls about sumo stuff. This is from January 30th 2001. The next Yokozuna eventually was Asashouryuu..

Who will be the next Yokozuna? (Part two..)	 	
KaioU  (52) 50%	
	 	
Dejima  (4)  3%	
	 	
Chiyotaikai  (8)7%	
	 	
Miyabiyama  (12) 11%	
	 	
Musouyama  (1) 0%	
	 	
Wakanosato  (16)15%	
	 	
Kotomitsuki  (4)3%	
	 	
Asashouryuu  (3)2%	
	 	
Ichinoya  (2)  1%	

Edited July 25, 2016 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 18,786]

I don't think so. I think other than Kaikitsune who was an avid fan, nobody believed KaioU would make it. And pre- 2003 the forum was pretty new and with not that many members, no? The arguments were over on the SML back then..

That's what I (sort of) meant...by the time the forum began to take off around 2003/2004, the shine had already come off of Kaio and the debates are the ones you're remembering. But off-forum in the years prior to that, Kaio-is-the-next-yokozuna was actually a pretty common theme. (Nice poll. ;-))

I'll out myself...I'm pretty sure I was leaning towards Kaikitsune's point of view in those early forum days, but then I'm a sucker for "hard-working guy comes good" stories. Think I only lost hope for good around 2005 when Kaio's results in between the injuries were no longer high-quality and it became clear that the good times weren't coming back.

(Side note for newer fans: Back then around 2005, absolutely no one expected Kaio to hang on for another 6 years.)

Edited July 25, 2016 by Asashosakari

[ALAKTORN 346]

I’d like to mention that if it weren’t for a henka loss Kisenosato might’ve been in a playoff, btw…

[Kintamayama 44,354]

I’d like to mention that if it weren’t for a henka loss Kisenosato might’ve been in a playoff, btw…

And if my grandma had wheels she'd be a bus, but reality just doesn't work that way..:-)

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Actually I think Harumafuji is older than Hakuho. Kotoshogiku is the oldest out of the whole top two ranking group.

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

I’d like to mention that if it weren’t for a henka loss Kisenosato might’ve been in a playoff, btw…

And if my grandma had wheels she'd be a bus, but reality just doesn't work that way.. :-)

As a Star Trek Fan, I appreciate this quote on MANY levels.

[Atenzan 1,074]

I’d like to mention that if it weren’t for a henka loss Kisenosato might’ve been in a playoff, btw…

And if my grandma had wheels she'd be a bus, but reality just doesn't work that way.. :-)

As a Star Trek Fan, I appreciate this quote on MANY levels.

It's also been a Greek saying since before Star Trek existed. Usually the annoying comeback of a strict middle-aged woman.

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

I’d like to mention that if it weren’t for a henka loss Kisenosato might’ve been in a playoff, btw…

And if my grandma had wheels she'd be a bus, but reality just doesn't work that way.. :-)

As a Star Trek Fan, I appreciate this quote on MANY levels.

It's also been a Greek saying since before Star Trek existed. Usually the annoying comeback of a strict middle-aged woman.

Point taken. Well Said.

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Some of those other lower ranked rikishi trying to work their ways up. Such as Musashikuni who had a fine Makushita debut at 6-1, Kotokamatani posted a 5-2 at Sandanme 24, perhaps he may get into the Makushita ranks for Aki? Oyanagi finished with 6-1, if he doesn't make Juryo for Aki I'm sure we'll see him get a good enough record to make it in Kyushu.

[Gurowake 3,922]

Kotokamatani posted a 5-2 at Sandanme 24, perhaps he may get into the Makushita ranks for Aki? O

5-2 at Sd25 or better is pretty much always a promotion to Makushita, even if they have to overdemote someone to make room.

[rzombie1988 157]

I don't think so. I think other than Kaikitsune who was an avid fan, nobody believed KaioU would make it. And pre- 2003 the forum was pretty new and with not that many members, no? The arguments were over on the SML back then..

That's what I (sort of) meant...by the time the forum began to take off around 2003/2004, the shine had already come off of Kaio and the debates are the ones you're remembering. But off-forum in the years prior to that, Kaio-is-the-next-yokozuna was actually a pretty common theme. (Nice poll. ;-))

I'll out myself...I'm pretty sure I was leaning towards Kaikitsune's point of view in those early forum days, but then I'm a sucker for "hard-working guy comes good" stories. Think I only lost hope for good around 2005 when Kaio's results in between the injuries were no longer high-quality and it became clear that the good times weren't coming back.

(Side note for newer fans: Back then around 2005, absolutely no one expected Kaio to hang on for another 6 years.)

Kaio also would have been a Yokozuna today due to the lesser standards.

[ALAKTORN 346]

I’d like to mention that if it weren’t for a henka loss Kisenosato might’ve been in a playoff, btw…

And if my grandma had wheels she'd be a bus, but reality just doesn't work that way.. :-)

I was simply bringing it up as everyone seems to write him off as having choked or not being good enough, but… in actual sumō he pretty much should’ve been in a playoff. So what gives?

[bettega 427]

I don't think so. I think other than Kaikitsune who was an avid fan, nobody believed KaioU would make it. And pre- 2003 the forum was pretty new and with not that many members, no? The arguments were over on the SML back then..

That's what I (sort of) meant...by the time the forum began to take off around 2003/2004, the shine had already come off of Kaio and the debates are the ones you're remembering. But off-forum in the years prior to that, Kaio-is-the-next-yokozuna was actually a pretty common theme. (Nice poll. ;-))

I'll out myself...I'm pretty sure I was leaning towards Kaikitsune's point of view in those early forum days, but then I'm a sucker for "hard-working guy comes good" stories. Think I only lost hope for good around 2005 when Kaio's results in between the injuries were no longer high-quality and it became clear that the good times weren't coming back.

(Side note for newer fans: Back then around 2005, absolutely no one expected Kaio to hang on for another 6 years.)

Kaio also would have been a Yokozuna today due to the lesser standards.

Kaio wouldn't have had 5 yusho today. We have Hakuho.

Edited July 26, 2016 by bettega

[Morningstar 118]

I was simply bringing it up as everyone seems to write him off as having choked or not being good enough, but… in actual sumō he pretty much should’ve been in a playoff. So what gives?

How does that Logically occure? A playoff would require that Harumafuji lose in a situation he has historically not lost in. When he is ahead of Hakuho and meeting him on the last day, he has historically won. If Kisenosato was able to force a playoff, he would have one one more than he did. That he was not in a playoff shows that he was not able to in Actual Sumo and not make shit up that sounds truthy Sumo Talk Sumo.

[rzombie1988 157]

I don't think so. I think other than Kaikitsune who was an avid fan, nobody believed KaioU would make it. And pre- 2003 the forum was pretty new and with not that many members, no? The arguments were over on the SML back then..

That's what I (sort of) meant...by the time the forum began to take off around 2003/2004, the shine had already come off of Kaio and the debates are the ones you're remembering. But off-forum in the years prior to that, Kaio-is-the-next-yokozuna was actually a pretty common theme. (Nice poll. ;-))

I'll out myself...I'm pretty sure I was leaning towards Kaikitsune's point of view in those early forum days, but then I'm a sucker for "hard-working guy comes good" stories. Think I only lost hope for good around 2005 when Kaio's results in between the injuries were no longer high-quality and it became clear that the good times weren't coming back.

(Side note for newer fans: Back then around 2005, absolutely no one expected Kaio to hang on for another 6 years.)

Kaio also would have been a Yokozuna today due to the lesser standards.

Kaio wouldn't have had 5 yusho today. We have Hakuho.

Yeah, he only had to deal with that "weakling" Asashoryu LOL