Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2016

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They get demoted as well, so aren't just as many joi maegashira recent sanyaku drop-outs?

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There is a reason why they refer to it as the meatgrinder. Most joi who go MK do it with gusto.

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Keep in mind that for M3s, there are times that they, especially M3w who are currently #17, are not facing a full joi schedule; Aoiyama at M3e and #16 missed an Ozeki the last two tournaments that might just have been lack of foresight in scheduling but may have been intentional as they seem to often give the last maegashira with naturally a full joi schedule one less than the natural number they would face. That's probably the reason that their win percentage is slightly higher than M2s. M3s actually fair less than 50% against rikishi below them in rank, although barely. M1s do noticeable better than that (~55%), while M2s are barely above 50%.

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They get demoted as well, so aren't just as many joi maegashira recent sanyaku drop-outs?

Yes, and the ones who dropped to M1 of course generally had a better previous result than the ones who went to M2 or M3, so the same logic applies.

Previous ranks and results of the last 50 joi maegashira:

M1e M1w M2e M2w M3e M3w

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

S1e 6-9 S1e 6-9 S1e 5-10 S1w 5-10 S1w 5-10 S1e 4-11

S1w 6-9 S1w 6-9 S1w 6-9 K1e 6-9 K1e 4-11 S1e 5-10

S1w 6-9 S1w 6-9 K1e 6-9 K1e 6-9 K1e 6-9 S1e 5-10

S1w 6-9 K1w 6-9 K1e 6-9 K1e 6-9 K1w 5-10 K1e 5-10

K1e 7-8 K1w 7-8 K1w 6-9 K1e 6-9 K1w 5-10 K1e 6-9

K1e 7-8 K1w 7-8 K1w 6-9 K1w 5-10 K1w 6-9 K1e 6-9

K1e 7-8 K1w 7-8 K1w 6-9 K1w 6-9 K1w 6-9 K1w 5-10

K1w 7-8 K1w 7-8 K1w 7-8 K1w 6-9 M1e 6-9 M1e 6-8-1

K1w 7-8 M2e 8-7 M1e 6-9 K1w 6-9 M1e 6-9 M1e 6-9

K1w 7-8 M2e 8-7 M1e 7-8 K1w 6-9 M1e 6-9 M1w 6-9

M1w 8-7 M2w 8-7 M1e 7-8 K1w 6-9 M1w 6-9 M1w 6-9

M1w 9-6 M3e 8-7 M1e 7-8 M1e 7-8 M1w 6-9 M1w 6-9

M2e 8-7 M3e 9-6 M1e 7-8 M1w 7-8 M2e 6-9 M1w 6-9

M2e 9-6 M3w 9-6 M1w 7-8 M1w 7-8 M2e 7-8 M1w 6-9

M2w 8-7 M4e 8-7 M3w 8-7 M1w 7-8 M2e 7-8 M2e 6-9

M2w 8-7 M4e 8-7 M4e 8-7 M1w 7-8 M2e 7-8 M2e 6-9

M2w 8-7 M4w 8-7 M4e 8-7 M1w 7-8 M2e 7-8 M2w 7-8

M2w 8-7 M4w 8-7 M4e 8-7 M1w 7-8 M2w 7-8 M2w 7-8

M3e 9-6 M4w 9-6 M4e 8-7 M2e 7-8 M2w 7-8 M3e 7-8

M3w 8-7 M4w 9-6 M4e 9-6 M2w 7-8 M3e 7-8 M3e 7-8

M3w 8-7 M5e 8-7 M4w 8-7 M4e 8-7 M4e 8-7 M3w 7-8

M3w 8-7 M5e 9-6 M4w 9-6 M4w 8-7 M4w 8-7 M3w 7-8

M4e 9-6 M5e 9-6 M5e 8-7 M5e 8-7 M5e 8-7 M5e 8-7

M4w 8-7 M5e 9-6 M5e 9-6 M5e 8-7 M5e 10-5 M5w 8-7

M4w 9-6 M5w 8-7 M5w 8-7 M5e 10-5 M5w 9-6 M5w 8-7

M4w 9-6 M5w 8-7 M5w 9-6 M6e 8-3-4 M6e 8-7 M6e 8-7

M4w 10-5 M5w 9-6 M5w 9-6 M6e 9-6 M6e 8-7 M6e 8-7

M4w 10-5 M5w 9-6 M6e 8-7 M6e 9-6 M6e 8-7 M6w 8-7

M5e 9-6 M5w 10-5 M6e 11-4 M6e 10-5 M6e 9-6 M7e 9-6

M5e 11-4 M6e 8-7 M6w 8-7 M6w 9-6 M6e 9-6 M7e 9-6

M5e 11-4 M6e 9-6 M6w 9-6 M6w 9-6 M6e 10-5 M7e 9-6

M5w 9-6 M6e 9-6 M6w 9-6 M6w 9-6 M6w 8-7 M7e 9-6

M5w 9-6 M6e 10-5 M6w 10-5 M6w 10-5 M6w 8-7 M7e 9-6

M5w 9-6 M6w 9-6 M6w 10-5 M6w 11-4 M6w 9-6 M7w 8-7

M5w 11-4 M6w 10-5 M6w 11-4 M7w 8-7 M6w 9-6 M8e 9-6

M5w 12-3 M7e 9-6 M6w 11-4 M7e 10-5 M7e 9-6 M8e 9-6

M6e 9-6 M7e 10-5 M7e 9-6 M8e 9-6 M7w 9-6 M8e 10-5

M6e 10-5 M7e 10-5 M7e 10-5 M8w 9-6 M7w 9-6 M8w 9-6

M6w 9-6 M7e 12-3 M7w 9-6 M9e 10-5 M8e 9-6 M8w 9-6

M7e 9-6 M7w 9-6 M8e 8-7 M9e 10-5 M8e 9-6 M8w 9-6

M7e 11-4 M7w 9-6 M8w 9-6 M9w 9-6 M8e 9-6 M9e 8-7

M7e 12-3 M8e 11-4 M8w 10-5 M9w 12-3 M8w 10-5 M9e 9-6

M7w 10-5 M8e 11-4 M8w 10-5 M10w 10-5 M8w 10-5 M9e 10-5

M7w 12-3 M8e 12-3 M8w 10-5 M10w 10-5 M9e 10-5 M10e 9-6

M8e 11-4 M8w 9-6 M8w 11-4 M10w 11-4 M9e 10-5 M10e 10-5

M8w 11-4 M8w 11-4 M10e 11-4 M11e 11-4 M10e 10-5 M10w 10-5

M9e 10-5 M8w 11-4 M10e 11-4 M11w 11-4 M10e 10-5 M11e 9-6

M9e 11-4 M8w 12-3 M10e 12-3 M11w 11-4 M10e 11-4 M11e 10-5

M9w 14-1 M10w 11-4 M11w 11-4 M12e 10-5 M10w 8-7 M11e 11-4

M10w 11-4 M10w 12-3 M13e 11-4 M12e 11-4 M12e 11-4 M11w 11-4

Edited by Asashosakari

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I see what you mean.

That penultimate row has some oddities: a 14-1 M9w who didn't get into sanyaku, and a M10w with a simple 8-7 who rocketed to M3e.

I'm guessing the 14-1 was maybe Kyokutenho's yusho, but who's the 8-7 with the huge slice of banzuke luck?

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I see what you mean.

That penultimate row has some oddities: a 14-1 M9w who didn't get into sanyaku, and a M10w with a simple 8-7 who rocketed to M3e.

I'm guessing the 14-1 was maybe Kyokutenho's yusho, but who's the 8-7 with the huge slice of banzuke luck?

Wakakoyu in 2011:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=8&form2_rank=m3

Bear in mind that 6 makuuchi rikishi that were on the Natsu banzuke were forced to retire, which caused huge banzuke movements for Nagoya.

The 14-1 was Toyonoshima after Kyushu 2010, not Kyokutenho:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M9&form1_wins=14&form2_rank=M1

Edited by Senkoho
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What's the most likely outcome for Oyanagi, having the Ms Yusho while ranked way down at Ms58?

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What's the most likely outcome for Oyanagi, having the Ms Yusho while ranked way down at Ms58?

He will definitely be in the promotion zone for Juryo next time. I am guessing top 5 ranks of Makushita. I am sure those that can do a database query will have a better idea of his banzuke position. ;-)

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What's the most likely outcome for Oyanagi, having the Ms Yusho while ranked way down at Ms58?

He will definitely be in the promotion zone for Juryo next time. I am guessing top 5 ranks of Makushita. I am sure those that can do a database query will have a better idea of his banzuke position. ;-)

My sloppy searching says about Ms6. Depending on the Kyokai's mystical crapshoots, this can vary from Ms5 to Ms9.

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Here's my makushita-joi guess, fairly different from Gurowake's down to Ms8.

Kizenryu (Ms6w 5-2) Ms1 Sakigake (Ms5w 4-3)

Akiseyama (J5w 1-14) Ms2 Jokoryu (J11w 4-11)

Daishoho (Ms7w 4-3) Ms3 Wakanoshima (Ms16e 6-1)

Tamaasuka (J14w 5-10) Ms4 Abi (Ms12e 5-2)

Meisei (Ms12w 5-2) Ms5 Kansei (Ms19e 6-1)

Tenkaiho (J14e 4-11) Ms6 Oyanagi (Ms58w 7-0 Y)

Sakamoto (Ms9e 4-3) Ms7 Yamaguchi (Ms14e 5-2)

Ryuden (Ms3e 3-4) Ms8 Rikishin (Ms10e 4-3)

Aozora (Ms16w 5-2) Ms9 Kagamio (J12w 1-6-8)

Hakuyozan (Ms1e 2-5) Ms10 Iwasaki (Ms13w 4-3)

Akinokawa (Ms6e 3-4) Ms11 Tokushinho (Ms22w 5-2)

Goryu (Ms32w 6-1) Ms12 Hishofuji (Ms17w 4-3)

Kotomisen (Ms8e 3-4) Ms13 Kotokobai (Ms25e 5-2)

Irodori (Ms26e 5-2) Ms14 Onami (Ms20e 4-3)

Okinofuji (Ms20w 4-3) Ms15 Mugendai (Ms9w 3-4)

I would say Oyanagi can probably go as high as Ms5w - I really don't see how they can put him ahead of any of the higher-ranked 9 rikishi. The lowest I could see him getting is Ms8w.

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Kaisei will be S E and Tochonisin S W

Told ya :-D

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The other two spots will be taken by gino-sho winner Tochinoshin and kanto-sho recipient Mitakeumi. Takayasu had a shot at becoming #4 instead, but wasn't able to beat resurgent Shohozan.

Not so sure about that.

Takayasu may take the 2nd Komusubi spot even with his 9-6

Told ya! (Sigh...)

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