Inquiry for FiveThirtyEight about Henka (split from Basho Talk)

[skepticalsports 12]

Hi there. I'm working on an article about sumo for FiveThirtyEight and have a few questions I hope you all can shed some light on for me:

1. Does anyone know the success rate of "attempted" henka?

2. Are there certain kimarite that pretty much mean “henka," and vice versa? or are they independent?

3. Does anyone track which rikishi attempt henkas the most often, and which have them attempted against them the most often?

4. If a one competitor "overcommits" by charging recklessly at their opponent, is there an option for how to exploit it other than the henka?

5. Say a henka is X% likely to win against an overcommitted, recklessly charging opponent. What is the probability of winning without it, relative to X?

Thanks for your help.

Edited March 28, 2016 by skepticalsports

[Fukurou 534]

Hi there. I'm working on an article about sumo for FiveThirtyEight and have a few questions I hope you all can shed some light on for me:

1. Does anyone know the success rate of "attempted" henka?

2. Are there certain kimarite that pretty much mean “henka," and vice versa? or are they independent?

3. Does anyone track which rikishi attempt henkas the most often, and which have them attempted against them the most often?

4. If a one competitor "overcommits" by charging recklessly at their opponent, is there an option for how to exploit it other than the henka?

5. Say a henka is X% likely to win against an overcommitted, recklessly charging opponent. What is the probability of winning without it, relative to X?

Thanks for your help.

Not saying anything this person is or is not who he says he is, I will say that FiveThirtyEight is a real website (fivethirtyeight.com) related to all manner of statistics in life. Their main sections are Politics, Sports (you don't often see things there beyond the mainstream US sports), Science & Health, Economics, and Culture. They have a relationship with ESPN.

Edited March 28, 2016 by Fukurou

[Randomitsuki 2,812]

Hi there. I'm working on an article about sumo for FiveThirtyEight and have a few questions I hope you all can shed some light on for me:

1. Does anyone know the success rate of "attempted" henka?

2. Are there certain kimarite that pretty much mean henka," and vice versa? or are they independent?

3. Does anyone track which rikishi attempt henkas the most often, and which have them attempted against them the most often?

4. If a one competitor "overcommits" by charging recklessly at their opponent, is there an option for how to exploit it other than the henka?

5. Say a henka is X% likely to win against an overcommitted, recklessly charging opponent. What is the probability of winning without it, relative to X?

Thanks for your help.

On the discontinued Sumo Fan Magazine Lon Howard collected henka information for a full year. Check the link at

http://www.sumofanmag.com/content/Issue_7/Wrap_Up8.htm

[skepticalsports 12]

On the discontinued Sumo Fan Magazine Lon Howard collected henka information for a full year. Check the link at

http://www.sumofanmag.com/content/Issue_7/Wrap_Up8.htm

Thanks that is interesting, though it's kind of hard to interpret without the data. He mentions that more "brazen" henka appear to work more often, though I'd guess more successful henka may be likely to appear more brazen.

Obv need to compare to rikishi records, plus there's a big difference between 62% and 80%. If it's attempted only in the cases where it's most likely to work -- like you either see your opponent overcommitting or predict that they will for some reason (like match histories) -- working some reasonable amount above 50% would likely be expected. But if it works 80% of the time then it's probably winning a large percentage of the time that it's completely premeditated, or being used by a weaker or injured opponent, or for "payback" or "to embarass" or for whatever other motives as well.

Do any of you know either if that data is public or where I can find Lon Howard's contact info?

[Asashosakari 18,959]

2. Are there certain kimarite that pretty much mean “henka," and vice versa? or are they independent?

They're not independent, but a simple look at kimarite decisions would be meaningless. Many henka lead to a finish by hikiotoshi (pull down), but loads of non-henka bouts do as well, simply because pulling down your opponent is a very common move, which can be set up at nearly any stage of a bout.

Other henka might lead to something completely different, because the henka "victim" didn't lose right away, but his opponent managed to get an advantageous position to his side or in his back, and initiates a different coup de grace (throw, push-out from behind, etc.).

Then there are bouts like Hakuho-Harumafuji which have a finish that is basically indescribable in kimarite terms (there's none for "disoriented rikishi couldn't control his momentum and pretty much ran out of the dohyo on his own"), and they just slap something on it that - at best - is loosely related to the initial move. Yesterday, they went with tsukiotoshi (thrust-down), but you're not going to find much resemblance between Hakuho's tsukiotoshi and either this one or this one, both from the day before.

Edit: And apropos that Daishomaru-Sadanoumi bout, we see two added complications right away. Did Sadanoumi henka? It wasn't an outright side-step, but also (much) less than full contact. And if it was a henka, was it instrumental in his victory? It didn't really work and he almost got pushed out before his last-ditch slapdown at the edge still gave him the win.

Edited March 28, 2016 by Asashosakari

[skepticalsports 12]

Not saying anything this person is or is not who he says he is, I will say that FiveThirtyEight is a real website (fivethirtyeight.com) related to all manner of statistics in life. Their main sections are Politics, Sports (you don't often see things there beyond the mainstream US sports), Science & Health, Economics, and Culture. They have a relationship with ESPN.

Indeed. ESPN owns us. You can find my contributor page and posts here. I write about sports (mostly).

[Fukurou 534]

Not saying anything this person is or is not who he says he is, I will say that FiveThirtyEight is a real website (fivethirtyeight.com) related to all manner of statistics in life. Their main sections are Politics, Sports (you don't often see things there beyond the mainstream US sports), Science & Health, Economics, and Culture. They have a relationship with ESPN.

Indeed. ESPN owns us. You can find my contributor page and posts here. I write about sports (mostly).

Nice to meet you. I enjoyed your recent piece about Justice Scalia. If I may ask, what has you researching sumo? Not exactly something you usually see on American websites (and not on ESPN since the Sumo Digest days, lo these many eons ago)

[kumasama 28]

Hi there. I'm working on an article about sumo for FiveThirtyEight and have a few questions I hope you all can shed some light on for me:

1. Does anyone know the success rate of "attempted" henka?

2. Are there certain kimarite that pretty much mean “henka," and vice versa? or are they independent?

3. Does anyone track which rikishi attempt henkas the most often, and which have them attempted against them the most often?

4. If a one competitor "overcommits" by charging recklessly at their opponent, is there an option for how to exploit it other than the henka?

5. Say a henka is X% likely to win against an overcommitted, recklessly charging opponent. What is the probability of winning without it, relative to X?

Thanks for your help.

I think you've got a few problems here.

1. Henka is poorly defined. For example, does Harumafuji's thing count? Where do you draw the line?

2. Success is poorly defined. If a rikishi more or less recovers from a henka but is in a disadvantageous position and later goes on to lose (or even win!) does that count as a success? How do you measure "disadvantageous position"?

3. The notion of "reckless charging" is a rather misguided. Kotoshogiku is great when he can come in hard under his opponent and stand them up. It's a deliberate strategy which plays to his strengths--he wouldn't be as good without it. But yes, it makes him very prone to henkas.

4. It's not a binary choice between blindly charging in and jumping out of the way. There's an entire continuum between, and that continuum is way more interesting than the extremes. Where do you make contact? How hard? How high? Do you go for a grip? What kind? How about some kind of slap or shove?

On a higher level, I think this article is in danger of falling into two traps that are really worrying.

1. The "weird Japan" narrative. Everyone seems to think Japan is very strange, and so an awful lot articles about Japan focus on the weirdest bits, so people think Japan is strange, so... But let's face it, every country has its share of weirdness. And I have to say, having lived in Japan a third of my life, the US is at least as bizarre. (American football? WTF? And don't get me started on politics...) If you're going to write about sumo, please write about it as you would any other major sport and not as some sort of bizarre spectacle.

2. The "data journalism" thing. I've read 538 since the 2008 election cycle. I get what you do. And yes, more data is generally better than less, and a lot of journalism is really, really terrible when it comes to dealing with data and statistics. But for the data and statistics to be helpful, you need context and understanding. I'm sure a lot of the people here would be very interested in henka statistics. But if your sumo article is driven by the question of "Why don't they jump out of the way more?" then you don't have context and understanding, and a few pretty graphs aren't a substitute. This is a trap far too many 538 articles fall into. Imagine an audience whose idea of baseball was "men in pajamas hitting balls with sticks" and a writer who asked "Why don't they hit the ball where the other guys aren't standing?" and gave a few stats about defensive shifts--and you'll understand my concern. Unless your article is very long, or part of a series, or written for sumo enthusiasts, there are probably much better things to write about than henkas.

(Edit: Thanks for the new thread!)

Edited March 29, 2016 by kumasama

[hamcornheinz 839]

No one keeps records of henka's though you can go through all of Kinta's videos from the past few years if you want.... and there is a distinction that must be made: there are slap-down henka's, where the guy jumps out of the way of a perfectly good tachiai from his opponent and slaps him down, and the henka we saw Hakuho pull on Harumafuji, which was more Hakuho reading Harumafuji's weak/off-balance tachiai and taking advantage but stepping out of the way and letting him defeat himself. Not all henka's are made equal.

[Asashosakari 18,959]

2. The "data journalism" thing. I've read 538 since the 2008 election cycle. I get what you do. And yes, more data is generally better than less, and a lot of journalism is really, really terrible when it comes to dealing with data and statistics. But for the data and statistics to be helpful, you need context and understanding. I'm sure a lot of the people here would be very interested in henka statistics. But if your sumo article is driven by the question of "Why don't they jump out of the way more?" then you don't have context and understanding, and a few pretty graphs aren't a substitute. This is a trap far too many 538 articles fall into. Imagine an audience whose idea of baseball was "men in pajamas hitting balls with sticks" and a writer who asked "Why don't they hit the ball where the other guys aren't standing?" and gave a few stats about defensive shifts--and you'll understand my concern.

Another baseball comparison might be the "why don't runners try to steal base more often?" issue. The two fundamental answers to both base-stealing and henka are of course: (1) If it's attempted too much, it's going to lose some of its effectiveness because the opponents will eventually choose to adapt (to some degree, at least). And (2) attempting to do it more often necessarily means you'd have to expand your attempts to include less-than-prime targets, lowering your overall chance of success (even before factor #1 comes into play). Edited March 29, 2016 by Asashosakari

[skepticalsports 12]

Thanks for your help.

I think you've got a few problems here.

1. Henka is poorly defined. For example, does Harumafuji's thing count? Where do you draw the line?

2. Success is poorly defined. If a rikishi more or less recovers from a henka but is in a disadvantageous position and later goes on to lose (or even win!) does that count as a success? How do you measure "disadvantageous position"?

3. The notion of "reckless charging" is a rather misguided. Kotoshogiku is great when he can come in hard under his opponent and stand them up. It's a deliberate strategy which plays to his strengths--he wouldn't be as good without it. But yes, it makes him very prone to henkas.

4. It's not a binary choice between blindly charging in and jumping out of the way. There's an entire continuum between, and that continuum is way more interesting than the extremes. Where do you make contact? How hard? How high? Do you go for a grip? What kind? How about some kind of slap or shove?

On a higher level, I think this article is in danger of falling into two traps that are really worrying.

1. The "weird Japan" narrative. Everyone seems to think Japan is very strange, and so an awful lot articles about Japan focus on the weirdest bits, so people think Japan is strange, so... But let's face it, every country has its share of weirdness. And I have to say, having lived in Japan a third of my life, the US is at least as bizarre. (American football? WTF? And don't get me started on politics...) If you're going to write about sumo, please write about it as you would any other major sport and not as some sort of bizarre spectacle.

2. The "data journalism" thing. I've read 538 since the 2008 election cycle. I get what you do. And yes, more data is generally better than less, and a lot of journalism is really, really terrible when it comes to dealing with data and statistics. But for the data and statistics to be helpful, you need context and understanding. I'm sure a lot of the people here would be very interested in henka statistics. But if your sumo article is driven by the question of "Why don't they jump out of the way more?" then you don't have context and understanding, and a few pretty graphs aren't a substitute. This is a trap far too many 538 articles fall into. Imagine an audience whose idea of baseball was "men in pajamas hitting balls with sticks" and a writer who asked "Why don't they hit the ball where the other guys aren't standing?" and gave a few stats about defensive shifts--and you'll understand my concern. Unless your article is very long, or part of a series, or written for sumo enthusiasts, there are probably much better things to write about than henkas.

(Edit: Thanks for the new thread!)

Thanks for your response. My article is not "about" henka, but the phenomenon of a legal and seemingly game-theoretically important strategy attracting so much derision is a bit foreign to American sports fans. That the most successful wrestler of the present (and arguably ever) is sort of "in trouble" for them makes it that much more interesting. Hence the investigation. And if you notice the pattern in my questions, I'm particularly interested in reasons why the move is frowned upon other than just "it's a weird tradition" -- e.g., whether it provides an "unfair" advantage.

As to whether it will satisfy sumo fans, who knows. I try to be as fair and accurate as possible (which is why I'm consulting with more knowledgeable people) but obv my first responsibility is to my audience.

[Nantonoyama 247]

2. Are there certain kimarite that pretty much mean “henka," and vice versa? or are they independent?

I have four henka-related kimarite in my mind : hatakikomi (slap down), hikiotoshi (hand pull down), tsukiotoshi (thrust down) and I remember some henka ending in uwatedashinage (pulling overarm throw).

But as there is no such kimarite as "henka", the definition of "henka" itself remains fuzzy. A henka can end up in okuridashi or yorikiri or oshidashi if an extra push is needed to throw the opponent outside the circle.

[Washuyama 638]

IMHO, it's about strength and skill. A yokozuna is supposed to be the biggest, baddest, strongest, most technically proficient of all. Resorting to a maneuver that doesn't really display any of that, is considered weak, even if it results in victory. Hakuho is arguably the best there has ever been and can beat everybody in the game straight up. So when he pulls a henka, it deprives the spectators a display of his mastery (which, if in attendance) is what they pay to see.

A day of tournament sumo starts early in the morning and goes nonstop till 6pm and a good number that go only show up for the last 10 or 20 bouts because they want to see the best.

[Sumozumo 240]

Thanks for your help.

I think you've got a few problems here.

1. Henka is poorly defined. For example, does Harumafuji's thing count? Where do you draw the line?

2. Success is poorly defined. If a rikishi more or less recovers from a henka but is in a disadvantageous position and later goes on to lose (or even win!) does that count as a success? How do you measure "disadvantageous position"?

3. The notion of "reckless charging" is a rather misguided. Kotoshogiku is great when he can come in hard under his opponent and stand them up. It's a deliberate strategy which plays to his strengths--he wouldn't be as good without it. But yes, it makes him very prone to henkas.

4. It's not a binary choice between blindly charging in and jumping out of the way. There's an entire continuum between, and that continuum is way more interesting than the extremes. Where do you make contact? How hard? How high? Do you go for a grip? What kind? How about some kind of slap or shove?

On a higher level, I think this article is in danger of falling into two traps that are really worrying.

1. The "weird Japan" narrative. Everyone seems to think Japan is very strange, and so an awful lot articles about Japan focus on the weirdest bits, so people think Japan is strange, so... But let's face it, every country has its share of weirdness. And I have to say, having lived in Japan a third of my life, the US is at least as bizarre. (American football? WTF? And don't get me started on politics...) If you're going to write about sumo, please write about it as you would any other major sport and not as some sort of bizarre spectacle.

2. The "data journalism" thing. I've read 538 since the 2008 election cycle. I get what you do. And yes, more data is generally better than less, and a lot of journalism is really, really terrible when it comes to dealing with data and statistics. But for the data and statistics to be helpful, you need context and understanding. I'm sure a lot of the people here would be very interested in henka statistics. But if your sumo article is driven by the question of "Why don't they jump out of the way more?" then you don't have context and understanding, and a few pretty graphs aren't a substitute. This is a trap far too many 538 articles fall into. Imagine an audience whose idea of baseball was "men in pajamas hitting balls with sticks" and a writer who asked "Why don't they hit the ball where the other guys aren't standing?" and gave a few stats about defensive shifts--and you'll understand my concern. Unless your article is very long, or part of a series, or written for sumo enthusiasts, there are probably much better things to write about than henkas.

(Edit: Thanks for the new thread!)

Thanks for your response. My article is not "about" henka, but the phenomenon of a legal and seemingly game-theoretically important strategy attracting so much derision is a bit foreign to American sports fans. That the most successful wrestler of the present (and arguably ever) is sort of "in trouble" for them makes it that much more interesting. Hence the investigation. And if you notice the pattern in my questions, I'm particularly interested in reasons why the move is frowned upon other than just "it's a weird tradition" -- e.g., whether it provides an "unfair" advantage.

As to whether it will satisfy sumo fans, who knows. I try to be as fair and accurate as possible (which is why I'm consulting with more knowledgeable people) but obv my first responsibility is to my audience.

I would say Hakuho is waaay more in trouble for pushing after the match is over and someone ending up with a broken leg because of it, than henka.

What resources are you using to educate about this issue? My strong opinion is to use Japanese resources to find the typical opinion there. English articles can sometimes be ok but can range from uninformed to paranoia nearly equal to chemtrail garbage.

I have built glicko2 estimation and predictions for sumo matches, and I wouldn't want to touch analysis of henka. The only way would to watch a lot of matches but I have no idea how you'd control for bias.

[hamcornheinz 839]

Thanks for your response. My article is not "about" henka, but the phenomenon of a legal and seemingly game-theoretically important strategy attracting so much derision is a bit foreign to American sports fans. That the most successful wrestler of the present (and arguably ever) is sort of "in trouble" for them makes it that much more interesting. Hence the investigation. And if you notice the pattern in my questions, I'm particularly interested in reasons why the move is frowned upon other than just "it's a weird tradition" -- e.g., whether it provides an "unfair" advantage.

As to whether it will satisfy sumo fans, who knows. I try to be as fair and accurate as possible (which is why I'm consulting with more knowledgeable people) but obv my first responsibility is to my audience.

Sumo's appeal largely comes from the fact that there are basically 3 rules.... I can assure you though, if this were judo, football, wrestling, and a lot of other sports, the henka would be banned. Because sumo has so few rules there is a lot of creativity involved, so you get people like Akebono who create their own system of sumo, and its more about creating your "own sumo" than conforming to an ideal, like in these aforementioned sports...

[Asashosakari 18,959]

Thanks for your response. My article is not "about" henka, but the phenomenon of a legal and seemingly game-theoretically important strategy attracting so much derision is a bit foreign to American sports fans. That the most successful wrestler of the present (and arguably ever) is sort of "in trouble" for them makes it that much more interesting. Hence the investigation. And if you notice the pattern in my questions, I'm particularly interested in reasons why the move is frowned upon other than just "it's a weird tradition" -- e.g., whether it provides an "unfair" advantage.

The problem is that there several different angles to talk about that. In no particular order:

1) Henka as "bad sumo". The full-blown jump-to-the-side henka is somewhat of a response to developments from the last 30-40 years, namely the greater focus on a hard-charging tachiai. (As you say, it's just standard game theory.) Back when the typical tachiai involved lighter contact and was mostly just a precursor to settling into a mutual grip position, there was little point in getting fully out of the way because it conferred little to no advantage. So in that sense, henka is seen as an attempt to avoid a regular, traditional confrontation.

It's not alone in being seen as bad sumo - even rikishi who specialize in normal tsuki-oshi (pushing/thrusting) sumo have to live with the "they're doing that because they're not good enough for proper mawashi-based sumo" stereotype. Those attitudes have declined somewhat over the last 20-ish years because tsuki-oshi is now extremely common (think baseball again, post-deadball era when the home run became more important vis-a-vis traditional station-to-station play), but some of it still persists. In that sense, henka is just the most "advanced" technique that's seen as bad sumo, it's not in a class of its own.

2) Henka as "undignified sumo". People are more inclined to forgive henka (and evasive tactics in general) by smaller rikishi, by lower-ranked rikishi and by injured/underperforming/outclassed rikishi. Hakuho is none of that.

3) It's difficult to separate the previous issue from good old-fashioned "people expect to get their money's worth" thinking, though. To compare it to something from a completely different realm: A randomly bad episode in a TV series will be easily forgiven, but if it's the season finale or even the series finale that sucks, outrage tends to last a lot longer. People have higher expectations for what's on the marquee.

Relative to other sports, sumo has the problem that the individual bouts are very short as it is, and cutting that even shorter is seen as cheating the audience. Team sports have a set duration, and even something like a 6:0 6:0 in tennis still provides a significant experience (moreso if it's because the winner dominated, not just because the loser was playing very badly). Closer to home, comparing sumo to other fight sports such as boxing: In those sports it's impossible to cut short the competition through defensive maneuvering. A boxing bout that's over in the middle of the first round at least saw a big knockout happening. Henka provides no such satisfying conclusion to most people. (Note that sumo bouts that are finished extremely fast due to a successful offensive move also happen; these generally don't attract significant criticism.)

4) Henka as a bad habit. A major tenet of coaching sumo is to instill a sense of forward-moving, active, self-confident sumo, rather than purely reactive maneuvering. Henka is the ultimate case of avoiding forward-moving sumo, and as such it's generally frowned upon by the coaches. That doesn't mean that defense is unimportant in sumo, but it's meant to be defense to specific actions of your opponent. That's probably part of why almost no rikishi admits to planning a henka in advance, it's always allegedly a "heat of the moment" decision.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,012]

I would contrast a henka with a "stunt" defensive tactic in American football, or similarly, a guard pull by the offense. There you have two rows of people standing across from each other, and the assumption is that the guys are going to go straight at each other, or at least the offense is going to try to stop the defense from going upfield. In those two types of plays, the linemen are doing something else in a play designed to create a tactical advantage, but in both cases its effectiveness relies on the fact that football is a team game. It's a perfectly reasonable tactic, and the fans really don't care about those guys seeming to shrink from contact because the play is developing in other ways. Sumo is not a team sport, and there is only one thing on the spectators' minds - watching these two guys go at it. When one of them decides to avoid contact and use the other's momentum against him, he is providing a disservice to the audience.

The other thing to consider besides the let-down of the audience is there is something of a game-theoretic rock-paper-scissors going on here. Those who henka will generally beat guys who blast out of a cannon without concern for whether their opponent will be there or not, while those that are cautious at the tachi-ai will generally be able to get good position on someone who henkas, but that cautiousness comes at the price of being potentially overwhelmed by an opponent who comes out fast. Because henkas are frowned upon, being cautious at the tachi-ai is mainly a recipe for getting blown away by the guy.

There's also the sumo-do approach of always doing forward-moving sumo. Henkas are not supposed to be part of the martial art, even if they work in competition.

[Asashosakari 18,959]

One thing to add: My impression is that the debate about the possible "unfair advantage" conferred by henka is a very Western thing. Inasmuch as Japanese fans complain about it, I think it's more about it being a cheap tactic. (Take your pick from my previous post as to the reasoning behind that.)

Now, why do some Western sumo fans complain about a type of (perceived) unfairness that they might not bat an eye at if it happened in a Western sport? I can only speculate, but IMHO some people simply project their desires for greater fairness in sport onto the "exotic" sumo (it's foreign, it has to be better!), even though it's no more warranted there than in Western sports.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,012]

In terms of the frowning-upon of a perfectly reasonable play, I suppose the comparison made before about the shift from dead-ball era style play to power hitting is apt. If you consider baseball a "small" game, where the goal is to advance the runners and hit the ball away from the fielders, the very idea of scoring runs simply by hitting a fly ball far enough to go over the boundary is ludicrous. The boundary is where it is in because of very old traditions, and partly they want to sell seats in that part of the stadium, which would be much harder if they added another 100 feet to the distance from the plate. When fielders would be able to get under a fly ball, but can't merely because the stands are in the way, the hitter is in some ways "cheating". If you want to hit a homerun, you should be hitting a very strong line drive that the fielders aren't able to get under by the time it lands because it's hit with such force and away from where the fielders are stationed; if you hit the ball high enough such that it's coming straight down after being in the air awhile, it really should be caught. It's gone on long enough now that it's seen as part of the game, but it really detracts from fundamental baseball the way it would be played if you didn't have the ability to hit fly ball home runs, which were probably not originally foreseen as the game was being played its first 50 years or so (depending on when you count it starting). And because fans like seeing home runs, while no one likes seeing sacrifices, there's no real major outcry.

[orandashoho 720]

You can't blame Hakuho for having good reflexes. If his body reacts to a percieved opening in his opponent's defenses, his brain isn't going to stop and consider if the sidestep is bad sumo or not. It's legal, it's a winning tactic, it avoids possible injury. What is wrong with that? I'm only sorry that Harumafuji didn't have the speed or wherewithal to counter it.

More problematic are the extra shoves and throws, unnecessarily injuring people, smugness and the general lack of politeness.

All this should give his opponents extra motivation to defeat him, though. He is unquestionably one of the greatest and he didn't steal the Cup. He is the man to beat, which will bring in the public rooting for the underdog.

[Gurowake 4,012]

1) Henka as "bad sumo". The full-blown jump-to-the-side henka is somewhat of a response to developments from the last 30-40 years, namely the greater focus on a hard-charging tachiai. (As you say, it's just standard game theory.) Back when the typical tachiai involved lighter contact and was mostly just a precursor to settling into a mutual grip position, there was little point in getting fully out of the way because it conferred little to no advantage. So in that sense, henka is seen as an attempt to avoid a regular, traditional confrontation.

I have to wonder if part of this is the decision to crack down on guys getting their hands down. Watching old clips, I agree that it would make no sense to henka, because they started far less crouched over and more able to adapt to what the opponent was doing. There wasn't much of an ability to charge out the gate either, because there was that greater flexibility in movement from not having one's hands down. If someone charged hard and overbearing, you could react and get out of the way, not just be forced to take the brunt of the attack.

[Unkonoyama 104]

I was trying to think of "controversial" plays in other sports that I follow. In America, it seems like the most controversial plays are because of safety/injury concerns. For example, MLB just made significant changes to the takeout slide, and the NFL has now made all chop blocks illegal. I don't really have an opinion on henka, but I feel it is controversial more for honor/"playing the game the right way" reasons. The closest comparison I could come up with is in boxing/kickboxing/mma, when at the beginning of the round the fighters motion to touch gloves but someone throws a punch instead. This is not illegal, but many would consider this unsportsmanlike.

Unrelated, but it made me chuckle thinking about the possibility of a "GTO" tachiai. I imagined someone like Aminishiki trying to compare his tachiai range with his opponent's range. "I need to henka 10% of the time to avoid being exploited by Myogiru's forward charge."

[Asashosakari 18,959]

I have to wonder if part of this is the decision to crack down on guys getting their hands down. Watching old clips, I agree that it would make no sense to henka, because they started far less crouched over and more able to adapt to what the opponent was doing. There wasn't much of an ability to charge out the gate either, because there was that greater flexibility in movement from not having one's hands down. If someone charged hard and overbearing, you could react and get out of the way, not just be forced to take the brunt of the attack.

That's all a bit shrouded in mystery for me. It's always being said that the 1970s/early 1980s were particularly bad as far as the no-hands-down tachiai goes, but I was just looking at this video of Taiho's 45-bout winning streak from 1968/69, and none of those tachiai would pass muster today either. So you probably have to go back to the early 1960s or perhaps even the 1950s to find something close to the contemporary approach (e.g. here from 1957).

The problem is that sumo today is not much like sumo in the 1950s, simply because the average rikishi is much bigger and there's much more force involved. Doing a successful Kotoshogiku tachiai at 130 kg is much harder than doing it at 180, even if your opponents are also giving up those same 50 kg: Blasting out your opponent in a 130-130 matchup might be just as easy as in a 180-180 matchup, but the 130 kg opponent will have extra mobility at his disposal, making the cannonball approach much less of a sure thing. In that sense, I suspect the increased use of henka is simply a way to compensate for reduced mobility due to larger bodies - the beginning of the bout affords you a few extra split-seconds for movement that the rest of the bout no longer does.

[Asojima 2,873]

Henka was common in the 70's when the standup tachiai was in vogue. The recipient of a head lowered pushing attack was in a great position to apply a spectacular henka. Henka is a natural and legitimate defensive move against the low charger. The experience teaches him to adjust his later attacks to reduce the chance of humiliation, thereby reducing his effectiveness. It is all part of the game.

If a guy shows up at a barroom brawl with a baseball bat, the first thing you do is try to take away the bat.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Asojima

[kumasama 28]

Thanks for your response. My article is not "about" henka, but the phenomenon of a legal and seemingly game-theoretically important strategy attracting so much derision is a bit foreign to American sports fans. That the most successful wrestler of the present (and arguably ever) is sort of "in trouble" for them makes it that much more interesting. Hence the investigation. And if you notice the pattern in my questions, I'm particularly interested in reasons why the move is frowned upon other than just "it's a weird tradition" -- e.g., whether it provides an "unfair" advantage.

Yeah, this pretty much confirms my fears.

"the phenomenon of a legal and seemingly game-theoretically important strategy" = Why don't they jump out of the way more?

"foreign to American sports fan" = Hey look at the weird foreign stuff!

"game-theoretically" "whether it provides an "unfair" advantage" = Let's throw a bit of math at it and pretend we understood something!

Of course henkas work. That's why they happen. Now, I'd be fascinated to read a good statistical analysis of henka usage and a good game theoretical analysis of tachiai tactics, but quantifying the efficacy of henkas (which is what all your original questions were about) is totally irrelevant to why they're frowned upon. That is "a weird tradition", or to say it in a less demeaning way, it's cultural. There have already been some great replies on this, so I'll just throw in my 2 yen.

1. Winning isn't everything. Of course it's important for ranking (and therefore salary) and prize money, and winning tournaments is naturally a big deal. But there's a very strong culture in Sumo of doing things the right way (and in Japan generally, I'd say--you see all sorts of signs about correct behavior on the train, for example, or the proper way of taking a bath in a hot spring). And the "right way" for sumo is all about strength, power, moving forward, and humility. It goes well beyond the actual bouts, extending to how rikishiki behave, dress, etc. off the dohyo. It's a way of life. And the furore around Hakuho is probably more for late extra shoves than for the henka. There's even an official advisory committee which regularly nags the top guys on their sumo style and behavior. And bear in mind that sumo has its origins in shinto ritual and is still quasi-religious (but not in the western sense!).

2. Henkas aren't usually loved by the fans (you'll find exceptions on this forum, though), especially in major bouts. I want to see great bouts where both guys really give it their all, lots of attacks and counter attacks, defense at the edge, a real battle. A henka feels like I'm cheated out of a bout. And let's face it, sumo is a business and needs bums on zabutons and eyeballs on TVs, so entertaining sumo is in the association's interest. The sumo association is also part of the ministry of eduction and has a duty of evangelize the sport--meaning that standards of behavior appropriate for a responsible position in society need to be maintained (see point #1).

So why are henkas tolerated at all, then?

1. They're a corrective and equalizer. Kotoshogiku (much as I like him) probably should never be a Yokozuna because he has an easily exploited weakness, which Yokozunas shouldn't have. Same goes for guys that get too big and have no agility.

2. They're not that common. Checking the old SumoFanMag data upthread, only seven guys pulled henkas more than once in 20 bouts; 12 had none at all for a year. I don't particularly like henkas, but there just aren't enough to bother me too much. (Unless it's in a bout I'm really looking forward to...)

3. Making a rule against them wouldn't be very practical (because of the definition problems discussed above), and it wouldn't be a very Japanese way of dealing with the problem, anyway. Social pressure can be used to deal with problems using more finesse. Kintamayama's translation from the ample men thread:

Hakkaku rijicho on the henka: "Winning is important, but there were probably many fans out there who wished to see good sumo.."

So to summarize, henkas are fair sumo, but they're not good sumo, and that's for cultural rather that strategic reasons. There are a few here and there to keep guys honest, but not enough (usually) to spoil the enjoyment of a day of sumo. If you only try to optimize wins using all legal tactics, you're going to completely miss the point.

I try to be as fair and accurate as possible (which is why I'm consulting with more knowledgeable people) but obv my first responsibility is to my audience.

This is an utterly bizarre thing for a journalist to write. The only way to be responsible to your audience is to be fair to and accurate about your subjects. Compromising one compromises both.

Edited March 29, 2016 by kumasama