Basho Talk - Haru Basho 2016 +++ Spoiler Alert! +++

[Washuyama 634]

I thought the same thing, which make me wonder if Hakuho has been staying off the belt on purpose as a challenge to himself. Kind of a "I can beat EVERYBODY easily on the belt, let me try THIS." Going for Teru's mawashi may be a sign of great respect for his (Teru's) size and skill. Thinking "This guy's good, I have to be at my best."

C'mon, you think a Hakuho who has failed to win the yusho for three straight basho actually believes straight-up competition isn't challenging enough for him right now?

I didn't say I believe it. It was just a theory, but a possible one. I have handicapped myself sometimes to try something new just to see if I could do it, although without the financial penalty this could result with Hak doing it.

[Asashosakari 18,666]

I think Kuroyama had it right a few days ago:

I've been quite certain for some time now that Hakuho's got some kind of mental issue going on, possibly related to a nagging injury. Many rikishi are used to fighting injured, but Hakuho has been so healthy for so long that it may seriously interfere with his mental game if his body is incapable of doing what he wants it to do. Since he's not accustomed to compensating for injury, he's reacting very, very badly, in more ways than one.

I believe Hakuho has two objectives right now: He's desperate to win, and he's desperate to avoid injuring himself further. That's not really compatible, of course, and it leads to the rather whacked out fighting style we've been observing, where he tries to avoid having to use his bandaged elbow and ideally doesn't even want to engage in any close-quarters combat at all.

My take from today's bout was exactly the opposite as Washuyama's - IMHO Hakuho knew that his tactics from the first 9 days were unlikely to work on a giant like Terunofuji, so he grudgingly took a more orthodox approach.

Edit: Simon got in with a similar point while I was writing.

Edited March 22, 2016 by Asashosakari

[dingo 1,119]

I'm sure Hakuho also knew very well that Terunofuji is injured so he simply took the fastest and safest way to victory.

I think Goeido is trying to reverse his score in the last basho, so he'll go for a 11-4 this time thereby starting a new pattern 🙃

[Dwale 419]

When someone proposed last week that Kotoyuki would get 10 wins this basho, I laughed. I'm not laughing now.

I had wondered if Terunofuji would have what it takes to thwart Hakuho this time around. Guess that answers that!

Takayasu: "**** it, I need the win."

Tochinoshin and Takarafuji was a good match, but the match of the day has to be Kisenosato vs. Kakuryu. That was just wow.

Now to track down the Osunaarashi match.

[hamcornheinz 839]

Now to track down the Osunaarashi match.

[Dwale 419]

Now to track down the Osunaarashi match.

Right on, thanks.

[rzombie1988 157]

Daily thoughts:

- One of the best sumo days we've had in a while. Awesome stuff from top to bottom.

- Kisenosato was great today. He has his chin gripped so he slaps the arm away. Somehow Kak gets him on the edge and literally just has to push in but can't get it done. Kisenosato then jumps with his foot he has clamped down. Kisenosato grabs the right arm, turns his right hip just a bit and turns it into a throwdown. Awesome job. Not so awesome for Kakuryu. He had the match won twice but came up blank. This is one of the best comebacks I've ever seen along with Harumafuji's rebound jump to win the basho for Terunofuji a few bashos ago. Kisenosato's footwork was unreal.

- TAKARAFUJI bulliying Tochinoshin. The man who never looks imposing outmuscled one of the stronger rikishi. Could not believe he lifted him. Again Tochinoshin just has awful form. As he is finding out, THERE IS NOTHING TO GRAB AT THE SHOULDER LINE. He just stands further straight up where he loses all of his power and leverage.

- Goeido and Hakuho are both looking super strong and aggressive. Where has this Goeido been for the last year? I can't understand how these wrestlers get into slumps where they got nothing but then get aggressive and become unstoppable trains.

- Hakuho has to be looking like the favorite at this point in time. He's just running over people.

- Koto went wrong today. If you watch the video he was standing straight up and had no grip whatsoever, which is very different from how he wins.

- Harumafuji basically lost when missing a thrust today. One of the faults I've been seeing with Harumafuji this basho is that if he attacks and it misses, he looks just dumb founded and ends up in crouched stance, reduced to pushing people off. Toyoshima was smart in turning to the left hand side today. Watch Harumafuji's fake henka's, they are always on the right side.

- It's getting hard to watch Ikioi. I feel like I've seen this with him a million times. Strong first week, complete explosion in the middle when he gets the contenders and then back to beating on people lower than him. Kaisei was really good today though and does what I want to see Ichinojo and Tochinoshin do - get up close, use your mass to grab the inner belt and just push to victory. Good job for Kaisei.

- Again, when Ichinojo is actually aggressive and not stalling, he wins! Although he is a bit down, he has a shot at a playoff if he avoid any losses. I like aggressive Ichinojo, that's the one who got the Jun-Yusho, not stalling Ichinojo.

- Kotoyuki is the perfect foil for Aoiyama. All Aoiyama does is stand up straight and slap. Well, Koto is really short so he gets a ton of leverage when Aoiyama tries to stand. Good job too in beating Aoiyama in the slap downs.

- Am honestly concerned as to whether Terunofuji can KK or not. His best hope is that Myogiryu and Ichinojo keep winning and get an Ozeki or Yokozuna match. Then he might be able to avoid a Yokozuna or Ozeki match and have a shot at an easier win.

- Ura should be concerned. That Sato loss hurt him bad. He can't afford to lose again.

Tommorow:

Hakuho vs Kisenosato - The championship match most likely. Kisenosato wins this and I'm ready to call the tournament his. It's gonna be a hard one though. What I noticed today was that when Hakuho grabbed the belt of Terunofuji, he turned his head blinding himself. Kise's gonna have to get a palm strike or a chin grip ready and he's going to have to be ready to turn. With Hakuho's aggressive and striking nature lately, I think this is the way to go. Both Kisenosato and Hakuho have Goeido left. Kisenosato has the easier schedule with Goeido, Harumafuji and Terunofuji. Hak's got Kakuryu, Harumafuji and Goeido.

Kotoshogiku vs Terunofuji - Koto's likely out of it but I think if he does what got him here - getting low, grabbing a belt and shimmying to the edge, I think he can get the win. Terunofuji is just too slow and not there right now.

Goeido vs Harumafuji - Anything can happen but I see a Goeido win here.

Ichinojo vs Ikioi - Ich has been dominating him 4-1. If he is aggressive I think he wins. If the matchmakers forget about him he might be able to sneak in.

Edited March 22, 2016 by rzombie1988

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

When someone proposed last week that Kotoyuki would get 10 wins this basho, I laughed. I'm not laughing now.

I was one of them. What started out as affection for his respectful bow and loud bark as turned into a serious look at this 24 year old. Seeing him out-muscle Aoiyama made me think that he can hang with the big boys. Wheter he can RUN with them.....time will tell. One more win gets him his KK and for sure at least one special prize.

[kosomo 32]

When someone proposed last week that Kotoyuki would get 10 wins this basho, I laughed. I'm not laughing now.

I was one of them. What started out as affection for his respectful bow and loud bark as turned into a serious look at this 24 year old. Seeing him out-muscle Aoiyama made me think that he can hang with the big boys. Wheter he can RUN with them.....time will tell. One more win gets him his KK and for sure at least one special prize.

i'm with you there. I didn't think he would even go KK. While I'm not ready to say that this is the beginning of something big, I definitely owe him an apology, and am excited to see the rest of his bouts.

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

When someone proposed last week that Kotoyuki would get 10 wins this basho, I laughed. I'm not laughing now.

I was one of them. What started out as affection for his respectful bow and loud bark as turned into a serious look at this 24 year old. Seeing him out-muscle Aoiyama made me think that he can hang with the big boys. Wheter he can RUN with them.....time will tell. One more win gets him his KK and for sure at least one special prize.

i'm with you there. I didn't think he would even go KK. While I'm not ready to say that this is the beginning of something big, I definitely owe him an apology, and am excited to see the rest of his bouts.

HHHHUUUU!!!!

[Atenzan 1,074]

With Teru done and dusted, Kotoyuuki will only have Sekiwake and below to face. How many wins can he get? I say 10.

It would be very fresh and pleasant to see Kotoyuki be the breakout performance this basho. All bowing and barking aside, a KK should net him at least a Shukun-Sho. If he could get 10 or more, possibly a Kanto-sho as well, not trying to jinx him, but the crowd is DEFINTELY warming up to him. HHHHUUUU!

When someone proposed last week that Kotoyuki would get 10 wins this basho, I laughed. I'm not laughing now.

I had wondered if Terunofuji would have what it takes to thwart Hakuho this time around. Guess that answers that!

Takayasu: "**** it, I need the win."

Tochinoshin and Takarafuji was a good match, but the match of the day has to be Kisenosato vs. Kakuryu. That was just wow.

Now to track down the Osunaarashi match.

My rules for judging maegashira-joi's odds at a KK on the Saturday are:

1-6 is bad

2-5 is par

3-4 would make me bet on a KK rather than a MK

4-3 or better and I take notes for the Shukun-sho

Case in point: Oosunaarashi in September. 1-5 on the Friday, got his kachikoshi on day 14. Maegashira-joi schedules are top-heavy like that. Calling 10 wins on a maegashira-hittou who is 3-3 with all Y/O behind him is in some cases conservative. In fact, Kotoyuuki is doing so well he is the only "true joi" below ozeki above .500.

(The "true joi" are everyone a heya-and-family-unrestricted east sei-yokozuna would normally face, and the east sei-yokozuna himself, i.e. the top 16 rikishi. With 4 ozeki and 3 yokozuna, this extends to M3e Aoiyama)

2-8 Yoshikaze S Toyonoshima 2-8

2-8 Tochiozan K Takarafuji 3-7

7-3 Kotoyuki M1 Takayasu 3-7

3-7 Okinoumi M2 Tochinoshin 2-8

3-7 Aoiyama M3

In fact, the next best record in this group is 3-7. Shukun-sho? Kanto-sho? Ozeki run? Everything is on if he keeps doing this well.

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

With Teru done and dusted, Kotoyuuki will only have Sekiwake and below to face. How many wins can he get? I say 10.

It would be very fresh and pleasant to see Kotoyuki be the breakout performance this basho. All bowing and barking aside, a KK should net him at least a Shukun-Sho. If he could get 10 or more, possibly a Kanto-sho as well, not trying to jinx him, but the crowd is DEFINTELY warming up to him. HHHHUUUU!

When someone proposed last week that Kotoyuki would get 10 wins this basho, I laughed. I'm not laughing now.

I had wondered if Terunofuji would have what it takes to thwart Hakuho this time around. Guess that answers that!

Takayasu: "**** it, I need the win."

Tochinoshin and Takarafuji was a good match, but the match of the day has to be Kisenosato vs. Kakuryu. That was just wow.

Now to track down the Osunaarashi match.

My rules for judging maegashira-joi's odds at a KK on the Saturday are:

1-6 is bad

2-5 is par

3-4 would make me bet on a KK rather than a MK

4-3 or better and I take notes for the Shukun-sho

Case in point: Oosunaarashi in September. 1-5 on the Friday, got his kachikoshi on day 14. Maegashira-joi schedules are top-heavy like that. Calling 10 wins on a maegashira-hittou who is 3-3 with all Y/O behind him is in some cases conservative. In fact, Kotoyuuki is doing so well he is the only "true joi" below ozeki above .500.

(The "true joi" are everyone a heya-and-family-unrestricted east sei-yokozuna would normally face, and the east sei-yokozuna himself, i.e. the top 16 rikishi. With 4 ozeki and 3 yokozuna, this extends to M3e Aoiyama)

2-8 Yoshikaze S Toyonoshima 2-8

2-8 Tochiozan K Takarafuji 3-7

7-3 Kotoyuki M1 Takayasu 3-7

3-7 Okinoumi M2 Tochinoshin 2-8

3-7 Aoiyama M3

In fact, the next best record in this group is 3-7. Shukun-sho? Kanto-sho? Ozeki run? Everything is on if he keeps doing this well.

That Highlighted portion is Something I was honestly JUST going over in my mind, but hesitated to write in case of the almighty **JINX**

10 or more wins this basho WOULD be the start of one, correct?

[Atenzan 1,074]

With Teru done and dusted, Kotoyuuki will only have Sekiwake and below to face. How many wins can he get? I say 10.

It would be very fresh and pleasant to see Kotoyuki be the breakout performance this basho. All bowing and barking aside, a KK should net him at least a Shukun-Sho. If he could get 10 or more, possibly a Kanto-sho as well, not trying to jinx him, but the crowd is DEFINTELY warming up to him. HHHHUUUU!

When someone proposed last week that Kotoyuki would get 10 wins this basho, I laughed. I'm not laughing now.

I had wondered if Terunofuji would have what it takes to thwart Hakuho this time around. Guess that answers that!

Takayasu: "**** it, I need the win."

Tochinoshin and Takarafuji was a good match, but the match of the day has to be Kisenosato vs. Kakuryu. That was just wow.

Now to track down the Osunaarashi match.

My rules for judging maegashira-joi's odds at a KK on the Saturday are:

1-6 is bad

2-5 is par

3-4 would make me bet on a KK rather than a MK

4-3 or better and I take notes for the Shukun-sho

Case in point: Oosunaarashi in September. 1-5 on the Friday, got his kachikoshi on day 14. Maegashira-joi schedules are top-heavy like that. Calling 10 wins on a maegashira-hittou who is 3-3 with all Y/O behind him is in some cases conservative. In fact, Kotoyuuki is doing so well he is the only "true joi" below ozeki above .500.

(The "true joi" are everyone a heya-and-family-unrestricted east sei-yokozuna would normally face, and the east sei-yokozuna himself, i.e. the top 16 rikishi. With 4 ozeki and 3 yokozuna, this extends to M3e Aoiyama)

2-8 Yoshikaze S Toyonoshima 2-8

2-8 Tochiozan K Takarafuji 3-7

7-3 Kotoyuki M1 Takayasu 3-7

3-7 Okinoumi M2 Tochinoshin 2-8

3-7 Aoiyama M3

In fact, the next best record in this group is 3-7. Shukun-sho? Kanto-sho? Ozeki run? Everything is on if he keeps doing this well.

That Highlighted portion is Something I was honestly JUST going over in my mind, but hesitated to write in case of the almighty **JINX**

10 or more wins this basho WOULD be the start of one, correct?

8 wins would be the start of one if he gets another 25 in the next two to go with them. The rules are 33 in 3 KK from the joi, rank of sekiwake in the 3rd. You can get ozeki with 8-7, 10-5, zensho. In fact, you don't even NEED 33. Kisenosato got his with 32.

[Asashosakari 18,666]

You can get ozeki with 8-7, 10-5, zensho.

In theory, you can. In practice, you almost certainly can't, especially not from a maegashira start.

[dingo 1,119]

Holy crap, I just realised Kotoyuuki is gonna be sekiwake next basho! But who'll be the other one? OK, in the worst case Terunofuji but other than that happening or either Takarafuji or Takayasu pulling off a small miracle they're going to have to dig quite deep till Ikioi or even Myogiryu. And it might happen that neither of them will have a particularly good score either...

[Gurowake 3,875]

You can get ozeki with 8-7, 10-5, zensho.

In theory, you can. In practice, you almost certainly can't, especially not from a maegashira start.

But Terunofuji did manage from M2 8,13 J, 12 Y to Ozeki. What's different about the 8, 10, 15 is that the 10 is not a particularly impressive score, and you really need 3 scores that or better, while 2 scores of 12 or more can be enough (as in Goeido and Terunofuji).

I agree that it's clearly the start of a potential Ozeki run now. If he can beat half the Y/O and everyone else as he has, that's Ozeki material. Can he keep it up for 3 basho though? Maybe people will figure out out to counter him better next time.

[Benevolance 2,462]

Holy crap, I just realised Kotoyuuki is gonna be sekiwake next basho! But who'll be the other one?

I'm still holding out faith that Goeidou can right the ship and make sekiwake next tournament. Like, maybe he can lose his next two matches SO BADLY that they subtract some wins or something. I dunno. *grumble grumble*

[Asashosakari 18,666]

But Terunofuji did manage from M2 8,13 J, 12 Y to Ozeki. What's different about the 8, 10, 15 is that the 10 is not a particularly impressive score, and you really need 3 scores that or better, while 2 scores of 12 or more can be enough (as in Goeido and Terunofuji).

The big part is that a two-basho total of only 18 just isn't going to result in any ozeki talk whatsoever before the third basho. Even Goeido's strange backdoor run started with 20.

[torquato 1,075]

But Terunofuji did manage from M2 8,13 J, 12 Y to Ozeki.

Terunofujis Ozeki-run didn't start at M2, but at S with the 13-2 Jun-yusho. The Jun-Yusho and Yusho almost qualifies to Yokozuna-hood, it qualifies for Ozeki on itself, if I'm not misled.

[RabidJohn 1,632]

I always get the impression that they take the specific circumstances of the basho into account when deciding Ozeki promotions.

So, a Sekiwake has 20 from the last 2 basho and needs 13, but only gets 12. If it's a zensho yusho for a Y/O, with another at 14-1 and a couple of 13-2s, then 12-3 probably won't cut it. If it's 13-2 yusho and he's taken out 3-4 Y/Os on the way to that 12, then the promotion is probably on.

Back to the Haru basho...

I'm utterly gripped, just like I was last time, at the possibility of an Ozeki yusho - and 6 different winners from 6 basho! Kisenosato or Goeido, it doesn't really bother me which, cos we're living in interesting times!

Edited March 22, 2016 by RabidJohn

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

But Terunofuji did manage from M2 8,13 J, 12 Y to Ozeki.

Terunofujis Ozeki-run didn't start at M2, but at S with the 13-2 Jun-yusho. The Jun-Yusho and Yusho almost qualifies to Yokozuna-hood, it qualifies for Ozeki on itself, if I'm not misled.

I was under the impression that an Ozeki Run is over a 3 tournament span. Kaio did something similar with KW 8-7 KW 14-1 Y SE 11-4, as did Mienoumi with 8-7 11-4 13-2 Y totaling only 32. Perhaps it is 'retroactively' inserted in if someone has 2 great basho?

If this is Indeed the start of Kotoyuki's Ozeki run, all I can say is HHHHUUUU!!!!

[lackmaker 428]

"If it's a zensho yusho for a Y/O, with another at 14-1 and a couple of 13-2s."

You know that's not possible.

Edited March 22, 2016 by lackmaker

[Asashosakari 18,666]

"If it's a zensho yusho for a Y/O, with another at 14-1 and a couple of 13-2s."

You know that's not possible.

Doesn't have to be 6 losses in a group of 4 rikishi, due to same-stable considerations. Edited March 22, 2016 by Asashosakari

[Tenshinhan 1,595]

Is it right that a rikishi between Ms1 and Ms15 is guaranteed a Juryo promotion with a 7-0 record? Sato would have a good chance then with two easy opponents left (Yamaguchi and the winner of Oiwato vs Goryu). Or maybe they might give him a Juryo opponent if he is 6-0?

Edit: Okay, the right thread for this topic has just been opened. (Applauding...)

Edited March 22, 2016 by Tenshinhan

[Gurowake 3,875]

Is it right that a rikishi between Ms1 and Ms15 is guaranteed a Juryo promotion with a 7-0 record? Sato would have a good chance then with two easy opponents left (Yamaguchi and the winner of Oiwato vs Goryu). Or maybe they might give him a Juryo opponent if he is 6-0?

It's certainly possible that they give him a Juryo opponent, like they did with Osunaarashi. I also wouldn't count out Yamaguchi. Whatever happened to him he appears to have recovered a great deal in the past year.