Kintamayama

Podcast - Yaocho discussion

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if you are happy with this summary, you must be terribly impressed with kotoshogiku's recent performance

has his strength and skill improved so quickly or was his success more from trying really, really hard? are you expecting him to yusho again and/or rise to yokozuna? if not, why not?

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- the Ministry of Health used to give a lot of money to the NSK..... not anymore
.... yes, it's still the national sports and they get some, but FAR less, than they used to....
- the 893 (read ya-ku-...) 'Organizations' used to give a lot of money to the NSK and got front row seats ..... not anymore
- Nippon used to be a quite rich country and a lot of wealthy individuals gave money to heya... not so much anymore.

You got about 660 active rikishi, you got yobidashi, gyoji, hairdressers, okamis, etc etc
Food got more expensive, so did electricity, building a dohyo in your heya, etc etc

How much Jpnese sponsoring money goes into baseball ? How much into soccer ? what's left for Sumo ? Yeah, Nagatani-en !
Softbank Hawks, Tohoku Rakuten Eagels, Orix Buffaloes, Nippon Ham Fighters (baseball)

Toyota Nagoya Grampus, Nissan Yokohama Marinos, Fujitsu Kawasaki Frontale, Mitsubishi Urawa Red (J-League)

where is the Honda - minato-beya, the NTT-Izusu-beya, the Kyushu-Electric Kokonoe-beya, the Minolta Oguruma-beya ??

doesn't exist !
why ??
because companies care for image ! for winners ! for young customers ! for lots of TV presence at prime time-slots.
Sumo TV is NHK only and finishes at 6pm....
the NSK web sumo stream used to be for free - not anymore...

why do I write this ?
because I want to express, what is obvious to me - IT"S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY and the NSK IS DESPERATE FOR MONEY.
without selling enough tickets for the 6 Hon-basho, the NSK could not survive in its current set-up...
How do you sell those expensive tickets ? You need to set up a good show !

You need to convince the companies, that taking a client along to watch Sumo is more fun, that playing golf or going for soap rando...

the next paragraph has to be taken with a grain of salt.... (and might apply for some other countries as well)
Nationalism in Japan is more explicit than in many other countries. It's an island after all and history books say it was closed for 200 years.
Japan is not a country, that is very friendly when it comes to immigration.
It's a great country to live in as a foreigner, as long as you don't need help from the government or try to become active in politics.

Last Friday the supreme court decided that permanent foreign residents are not entitled to welfare benefits (even if they paid into the system for years). There has never been a hostile takeover of a Japanese listed stock company from a foreign company.
If you work in Japan as a foreigner, you get an ALIEN REGISTRATION CARD (no kiddin)
It is extremely hard for a foreigner to obtain Japanese nationality (Kyokutenho is one of the few examples).


Restricting each heya to only one foreigner was a step to limit Mongolian influence (not that many Estonians around anyway).

Accepting that their national sports is dominated by three foreigners (actually four, isn't it), is quite hard to accept for elderly Japanese.
Most younger Jpn folks don't care about Sumo anyway, please ask 100 people at any University campus if they can name all three Jpn ozeki,
I guess 4 out of 100 will know them all...

Kokugikan & Osaka - mostly sold out; Nagoya not so much, Fukuoka not at all - that's a problem.
Kotoshogiku is from Fukuoka - wow, that helps !
much more kensho banners, if a Jpnese wrestler has a Yusho-chance ? YES, without doubt.
much more newspaper and TV coverage, if a Jpnese rikishi gets the Tenno-cup ? ABSObloodyLUTELY

my personal conclusion:
the NSK wanted a Jpn rikishi to win - probably since already many years ago.
the 10-yr mark seemed to be the final straw - as Kise did not deliver (yet)
I don't think the Mongol-gang was happy about it, but I believe in the end, Hakuho gave in - he didn't want to end like Asashoryu.
Without the NSK, Hakuho wouldn't not be, where he is today, in terms of money and status.
and what is one yusho compared to what he already has achieved ??
He is a fighter and he body language during the fight with Kise said it all (at least to me): "Take this as my present, not happily, but forced"

I believe 10-15% of makuuchi fights are "pre-discussed". if Ozeki involved, that percentage goes up to 20-25%.

Would Kotoshogiku win the Yusho, if the Mongol-gang would not have complied to the force of YAMATO ? NO WAY !!!

Kotoshogiku prediction for Haru 2016: 9-6 or drop out with an injury.... Tsuna-run ??? hahahahahaha

Yusho: someone from Mongolia

maybe May 2017 Kisenosato will also get his Yusho
I mean, even Mr Stoyanov got one (to lure more European tourists in, as the JTB was discussing the new tour schedules with travel agencies just at this time and the NSK could sell approx. 300 seats to the JTB package tours for every weekday in Kokugikan ;))

<<<conspiracy theory is something wonderful>>>

Edited by Andonishiki
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Conspiracy theory could be wonderful if it were fun for others than the inventors.

I am a sumo fan because sumo is fun for me, using my time for it refreshes me - I need my daily dose of (real) sumo.

I stopped to care about conspiracy talk after I read (as soon as it was published) the Onaruto Yaocho book.

I had read it all before, by the same author and others, in Shukan Gendai and Shukan Post, but that much concentrated bile spoiled my fun for a whole week. Not because I believed it or not, but because the way that talk is written and the destructive intentions.

A little mention of conspiracy can spice up a discussion, but for anyone who seeks fun in sumo, only as a running gag.

The problem with yaocho, that it is a matter of faith. And you can't argue on faith.

I completely agree: discussion about faith is futile - can it be fun at all?
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I completely agree: discussion about faith is futile - can it be fun at all?

I hope it can! For me the key is not to get upset by someone else's believe. In every faith-based debate there is a certain point, when I realize, that no argument can change my opponent's mind. After that, I stop arguing, and I start to enjoy and get amused by their believes. :) Otherwise I'd feel stressed or even angry and believe me, that'd not be good to any of us :D

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Most younger Jpn folks don't care about Sumo anyway, please ask 100 people at any University campus if they can name all three Jpn ozeki,

I guess 4 out of 100 will know them all...

I have certainly found this to be true. I'm studying Japanese and my teacher (from Tokyo) finds it funny that I know so much about sumo. She's probably in her 30s and tells me that she doesn't know anyone in Japan that cares much about sumo. When I tell younger Japanese people that I travel to Japan primarily to see sumo, they're astonished.

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Are there some matches that people aren't giving 100%? Sure, look how many matches Ozeki tend to win after they go MK in a tournament, and look at kadoban Ozeki at 7-7 on Day 15. For those matches it is reasonable to assume that someone there is not giving it their all. But for matches in general, the yaocho hypothesis is unnecessary to explain why better rikishi sometimes lose.

Sumo fans should accept that mukyrioku or powerless sumo is a normal phenomenon in professional sumo.

So basically that people aren't giving their all because they just don't feel like it? That's part of what makes a rikishi who he is. If he doesn't have the will to win, that's part of the reason why he's bad. Despite me blasting the whole "will to win" thing elsewhere, I don't doubt that's it's a real phenomenon with most people (it just isn't so much with me). Most people don't like giving their all, and if they can get by with things half-assed, then they will. How a rikishi feels on a certain day, his desire to perform well, those go into how good of a rikishi someone is, and it's some of the aspect why there's variance, even if I didn't specifically mention it previously. I am definitely not arguing against "mukyrioku", and never have. I have no problem with the idea that sometimes people don't give it their all, and no problem with the idea that some of them take one for the team without being asked. But the idea that there's bout-fixing going on on a grand scale, and specifically that the Yokozuna pre-arranged their losses to Tochiozan for some nebulous goal is a load of rubbish. If Mike means that they just weren't trying hard enough, he shouldn't be saying it was "yaocho". I'm just going by the quote from Asashosakari; maybe he never actually said it that way, but that's what I'm responding to.

After many rikishi were fired because of yaocho (purchasing a win with money or selling a bout for money) several years ago, I think yaocho is rare these days. These days we are dealing with "mukyrioku"- intentional powerless sumo.

I've been watching sumo for many years but before the breaking-out of the yaocho scandal, I had never suspected a bout being yaocho or "mukyrioku". However, during last basho, there were several "mukyrioku" bouts that even ordinary sumo fans could identify.

As I said before, no yusho (or ozeki/yokozuna promotion) can be pre-arranged. If Geek did not manage 10-0 by day-10 last basho, no one could give him a yusho. But after he exhibited a good winning streak, other elite rikishi would not stand in his way.

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I've been watching sumo for many years but before the breaking-out of the yaocho scandal, I had never suspected a bout being yaocho or "mukyrioku". However, during last basho, there were several "mukyrioku" bouts that even ordinary sumo fans could identify.

And I submit nobody can identify real yaocho. IF it's there, ordinary sumo fans will never see it. Do you really think that these highly trained guys who practice with each other all the time would lose on purpose without doing their utmost to make it look as good and believable as possible? ESPECIALLY after the yaocho scandal when everyone is suddenly a yaocho expert. Why would any rikishi take a dumb dive that is so transparent and risk suspicion that maybe he isn't giving it his utmost?

Edited by Kintamayama
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As I said before, no yusho (or ozeki/yokozuna promotion) can be pre-arranged. If Geek did not manage 10-0 by day-10 last basho, no one could give him a yusho. But after he exhibited a good winning streak, other elite rikishi would not stand in his way.

Of course. It goes without saying that whenever a Japanese rikishi has a really hot start and is on the verge of winning the yusho, the other elite rikishi will not stop him.

Oh wait...

Well, I guess that the NSK or the Mongolian High Council just doesn't like Kisenosato and was waiting for rising star Kotoshogiku to manage the hot start. Or, the other favorite explanation (Tochiozan losing the playoff after Kisenosato lost a Yusho that was almost impossible to lose), "there was a plan but someone messed it up"...

Then again, I guess if its a matter of faith, like it was mentioned before, arguing facts is rather pointless, isn't it?

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Moderator Notice
Quite amazing that it took 60 posts in this topic before people reached the brink of attacking each other. Please continue to keep your calm.
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On many forums, religious discussions are not permitted. This is as near to a religious discussion as makes no odds. It's not surprising if some posters catch fire periodically.

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If I can explain, Dapeng means Taiho in chinese which is where "big bird" came from.... as for the delusion part, I stand by it. It is delusional.

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if you are happy with this summary, you must be terribly impressed with kotoshogiku's recent performance

has his strength and skill improved so quickly or was his success more from trying really, really hard? are you expecting him to yusho again and/or rise to yokozuna? if not, why not?

this challenge is not only for kuroyama

these questions are for anyone with a belief in the basho that was not a basho, where kotoshogiku 'won'

what shall we expect from mighty kotoshogiku, now that he has surpassed himself more than any other athlete?

who can we find to compare to this fantastic figure?

Edited by wuli

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I don't think the Geekster takes another yusho. And I don't think he does enough to get promoted to Yokozuna either.

My guess is that Hakuho wins the March tournament.

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C'mon, Hakuho wins 4 tournaments a year, at his worst; that's as safe a guess as a person can make. :D

I don't know whether Kotoshogiku can win another yuusho, but I like that he seems determined to try. The content of his sumo last tournament wasn't much different than before, but it was...less blindly zealous? He didn't look as vulnerable to henkas as he normally does. Maybe his head is just in a better place?

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if you are happy with this summary, you must be terribly impressed with kotoshogiku's recent performance

has his strength and skill improved so quickly or was his success more from trying really, really hard? are you expecting him to yusho again and/or rise to yokozuna? if not, why not?

this challenge is not only for kuroyama

these questions are for anyone with a belief in the basho that was not a basho, where kotoshogiku 'won'

what shall we expect from mighty kotoshogiku, now that he has surpassed himself more than any other athlete?

who can we find to compare to this fantastic figure?

Why is this important to you? I mean to question the future of somebody? Kotoshogiku's yusho win was a huge surprise. It came from nowhere. But the Yokozunas didn't play well at this basho, and after all Kototshogiku earned this yusho win with strong and cruel sumo. The best won. He pulled all those wins. It doesn't bother me that you can't accept the possibility of a basho without any manipulation by rikishi. But in my head, that's what happened. I don't need to be provoked about my believes. :)

And to answer your questions. If he'll do good sumo, he will win his bouts. If he's better than Hakuho, Harumafuji and Kakuryu and Kise, and Terunofuji, he shall emerge! If he is not, he has just won a sole basho which was remarkable because of a 10 years anniversary. That's the story in my head.

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C'mon, Hakuho wins 4 tournaments a year, at his worst; that's as safe a guess as a person can make. :D

Actually, I expected Hakuho to take the last yusho. Why? Because Hakuho doesn't often drop 2 yusho in a row. Much less three. And he has failed to yusho in the last 3 tournaments. He hasn't had a year like that since 2012 when he only raised the Cup twice.

I think he'll be looking to make a statement in March.

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this challenge is not only for kuroyama

these questions are for anyone with a belief in the basho that was not a basho, where kotoshogiku 'won'

what shall we expect from mighty kotoshogiku, now that he has surpassed himself more than any other athlete?

who can we find to compare to this fantastic figure?

Well, there are three possibilities. On the first, he fails to win the Yusho, proving that there is a conspiracy that gifted him his Yusho. On the second, he wins the Yusho, gets promoted to Yokozuna, proving that there is a conspiracy to produce a Japanese Yokozuna. On the third, he doesn't compete or withdraws from the tournament, proving that there is a conspiracy to cover up the conspiracy that gifted him the Yusho. Simple, isn't it?

However, for people here who are interested in facts, here is an attempt to predict what Kotoshogiku is likely to do next basho, based on statistics alone:

Since the 15-day basho era begun, I found 56 Ozeki who won a Yusho without having won the one before (i.e I didn't count the second of back-to-back Yusho). Out of those:

1) The average number of wins for the next basho was a little under 10 (9.98 to be exact). That even includes the people who actually won the next basho.

2) The average number of wins for the next basho for the 20 Ozeki who hadn't won a yusho before is much lower, at 9.2

3) More than 50% of the Ozeki had 10 or less wins at the next basho.

4) There were 12 cases of Ozeki that won a Yusho after having 8 or less wins on the basho before. Seven of them won 10 or less at the next basho. For two of them it was their first. Those two went 9-6 and 10-5 at the next basho.

5) The back-to-back Yusho was won by 10 Ozeki.

So, basically, that would suggest (purely on a rough evaluation of statistics), that one could predict that there is a chance of about 82% for Kotoshogiku NOT to win the yusho, and in fact he is statistically expected to manage 9 or 10 wins.

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Since the 15-day basho era begun, I found 56 Ozeki who won a Yusho without having won the one before (i.e I didn't count the second of back-to-back Yusho). Out of those:

1) The average number of wins for the next basho was a little under 10 (9.98 to be exact). That even includes the people who actually won the next basho.

2) The average number of wins for the next basho for the 20 Ozeki who hadn't won a yusho before is much lower, at 9.2

3) More than 50% of the Ozeki had 10 or less wins at the next basho.

4) There were 12 cases of Ozeki that won a Yusho after having 8 or less wins on the basho before. Seven of them won 10 or less at the next basho. For two of them it was their first. Those two went 9-6 and 10-5 at the next basho.

5) The back-to-back Yusho was won by 10 Ozeki.

Congratulations, you have just discovered 56 additional conspiracies of the past! :-)
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sounds like your stats for historical champions support what most are expecting from the recent great 'champion'

more meh

at least not many will be disappointed

everyone is used to it

but just imagine if his recent sudden superpowers persist!

then, we can at least all be surprised

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sounds like your stats for historical champions support what most are expecting from the recent great 'champion'

more meh

at least not many will be disappointed

everyone is used to it

but just imagine if his recent sudden superpowers persist!

then, we can at least all be surprised

Yes, we expect him to perform typically. It's called "reversion to the mean". Look it up.

And what superpowers? Kotoshogiku had shown himself in the past as capable of beating all the rikishi he beat last basho. Some more often than others, but he just managed to beat them all in the same basho this time, no doubt helped by a distinctly substandard performance from a possibly injured Hakuho. Next time? It'd be nice to see a repeat, but it's not too likely.

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So, basically, that would suggest (purely on a rough evaluation of statistics), that one could predict that there is a chance of about 82% for Kotoshogiku NOT to win the yusho, and in fact he is statistically expected to manage 9 or 10 wins.

Although, if that's exactly what happens, it's just proof that they're trying to hide the conspiracy in plain sight...
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So, basically, that would suggest (purely on a rough evaluation of statistics), that one could predict that there is a chance of about 82% for Kotoshogiku NOT to win the yusho, and in fact he is statistically expected to manage 9 or 10 wins.

Although, if that's exactly what happens, it's just proof that they're trying to hide the conspiracy in plain sight...

Seriously? You think that this 'plain sight' exists by luck? No, that 82% chance was carefully constructed over many years, just for the culmination of this very moment...

Edited by Sumozumo
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Seriously? You think that this 'plain sight' exists by luck? No, that 82% chance was carefully constructed over many years, just for the culmination of this very moment...

Just imagine how many additional Japanese yokozuna we'd have had, if so many yusho-winning ozeki hadn't been forced to do badly in their followup tournaments just to maintain the story...
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again and again, in this thread or any other here, when the topics of yaocho or mukiryoku come up,

the same obsessionists bring out their straw man, conspiracy, and delight in unintended self ridicule, believing they have hidden the actual topic

while yaocho implies at least a bit of conspiracy, and mukiryoku may or may not,

it is necessary to get to first base before second or third

the ridiculists never actually deny that yaocho and mukiryoku take place, as they well know this is already established

instead of conversation, they throw up fantastic theories of conspiracy, pretending these have been proposed by others

is it an excess of bile that motivates this?

if not, what is it that so terrifies the conspiracy theorists here?

one can guess that it is a fear that open discussion will hurt sumo, as evidenced in the drop in attendance from the yaocho scandal

i agree that putting the spotlight on yaocho and mukiryoku can be overdone, and to the degree that it is, it's a disservice

in my view, the extreme denial of letting up (through implication, without actually stating so) is also a disservice, especially to the newer viewers trying to deepen their understanding of the art of sumo

so, conspiracists, while your practices may show mildly cute, they hardly reflect admirably

please ask yourself, does your frequent battering of your straw man serve the spirit and art of sumo?

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again and again, in this thread or any other here, when the topics of yaocho or mukiryoku come up,

the same obsessionists bring out their straw man, conspiracy, and delight in unintended self ridicule, believing they have hidden the actual topic

while yaocho implies at least a bit of conspiracy, and mukiryoku may or may not,

it is necessary to get to first base before second or third

the ridiculists never actually deny that yaocho and mukiryoku take place, as they well know this is already established

instead of conversation, they throw up fantastic theories of conspiracy, pretending these have been proposed by others

is it an excess of bile that motivates this?

if not, what is it that so terrifies the conspiracy theorists here?

one can guess that it is a fear that open discussion will hurt sumo, as evidenced in the drop in attendance from the yaocho scandal

i agree that putting the spotlight on yaocho and mukiryoku can be overdone, and to the degree that it is, it's a disservice

in my view, the extreme denial of letting up (through implication, without actually stating so) is also a disservice, especially to the newer viewers trying to deepen their understanding of the art of sumo

so, conspiracists, while your practices may show mildly cute, they hardly reflect admirably

please ask yourself, does your frequent battering of your straw man serve the spirit and art of sumo?

Its "satire". You know, making fun of stuff.

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