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shimodahito

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2016

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What rank would Ura be next basho? Only Shotenro got promoted to Juryo, right?

Ura will either be Makushita 1 or 2 given that he scored 6-1. If he keeps wrestling the way he is, he'll make Juryo in Natsu 2016.

He was very unlucky to lose in the final playoff. Perhaps too eager to finish the match. I think Ura is very exciting and has a natural awareness of his and his opponent's balance, supplemented by great reflexes and suppleness. Looking forward to him becoming sekitori which I think is only a matter of time.

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What rank would Ura be next basho? Only Shotenro got promoted to Juryo, right?

Quick'n'dirty top makushita prediction:

Tochihiryu (Ms6w 6-1 D) Ms1 Tamaasuka (Ms4e 4-3)

Abi (Ms4w 4-3) Ms2 Ura (Ms8w 6-1 D)

Daishoho (Ms5w 4-3) Ms3 Terutsuyoshi (Ms10e 6-1 D)

Hakuyozan (Ms7w 5-2) Ms4 Akua (Ms7e 4-3)

Tochimaru (Ms13e 6-1 Y) Ms5 Wakanoshima (Ms1w 3-4)

Kotoeko (Ms12w 5-2) Ms6 Hamaguchi (Ms18e 6-1 D)

Shiba (Ms3e 3-4) Ms7 Tokitenku (J9e 0-0-15)

Daiki (Ms16e 5-2) Ms8 Sakigake (Ms12e 4-3)

Kizenryu (Ms5e 3-4) Ms9 Sato (Ms13w 4-3)

Shosei (Ms6e 3-4) Ms10 Keitenkai (Ms15e 4-3)

Hishofuji (Ms15w 4-3) Ms11 Tokushinho (Ms3w 2-5)

Sakamoto (Ms15Td 4-3) Ms12 Chiyonoumi (Sd9e 7-0 Y)

Kansei (Ms22e 5-2) Ms13 Tochinobori (Ms22w 5-2)

Ryuden (Ms9e 3-4) Ms14 Akinokawa (Ms9w 3-4)

Irodori (Ms10w 3-4) Ms15 Nionoumi (Ms26w 5-2)

Maybe they'll put Daishoho ahead of Ura.

Those top ranks will be teeming with 6-1 guys from the recent basho.

Edited by Asashosakari

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East Rank West
????? J1 Seiro(7-8 J1e)
Asasekiryu(9-6 J8e) J2 Nishikigi(8-7 J6e)
Fujiazuma(6-9 J1w) J3 Sadanofuji(6-9 J2e)
Homarefuji(4-11 M15e) J4 Arawashi(7-8 J4e)
Kagamio(7-7 J4w) J5 Kagayaki(4-11 M16e)
Chiyonokuni(10-5 J13w) J6 Azumaryu(9-6 J11w)
Kitaharima(5-10 J3w) J7 Ishiura(8-7 J10e)
Endo(1-6 M11e) J8 Asahisho(8-7 J10w)
Jokoryu(2-4 M14e) J9 Tsurugisho(8-7 J12e)
Chiyoshoma(8-7 J12w) J10 Chiyoo(6-9 J8w)
Tenkaiho(5-10 J7e) J11 Asabenkei(7-8 J11e)
Chiyomaru(5-6 J7w) J12 Onosho(8-7 J14e)
Dewahayate(8-7 J14w) J13 Shotenro(4-3 Ms1e)
Amakaze(7-8 J13e) J14 Kyokutaisei(5-10 J9w)
Tochihiryu(6-1 Ms6w) Ms1 Tamaasuka(4-3 Ms4e)
Abi(4-3 Ms4w) Ms2 Ura(6-1 Ms8w)
Daishoho(4-3 Ms5w) Ms3 Terutsuyoshi(6-1 Ms10e)
Hakuyozan(5-2 Ms7w) Ms4 Tochimaru(6-1 Ms13e)
Akua(4-3 Ms7e) Ms5 Wakanoshima(3-4 Ms1w)
Kotoeko(5-2 Ms12w) Ms6 Hamaguchi(6-1 Ms18e)
Shiba(3-4 Ms3e) Ms7 Daiki(5-2 Ms16e)
Sakigake(4-3 Ms12e) Ms8 Tokitenku(0-0 J9e)
Kizenryu(3-4 Ms5e) Ms9 Sato(4-3 Ms13w)
Keitenkai(4-3 Ms15e) Ms10 Shosei(3-4 Ms6e)
Hishofuji(4-3 Ms15w) Ms11 Sakamoto(4-3 Ms15TD)
Chiyonoumi(7-0 Sd9e) Ms12 Kansei(5-2 Ms22e)
Tochinobori(5-2 Ms22w) Ms13 Tokushinho(2-5 Ms3w)
Ryuden(3-4 Ms9e) Ms14 Akinokawa(3-4 Ms9w)
Nionoumi(5-2 Ms26w) Ms15 Irodori(3-4 Ms10w)

???? = Akiseyama(8-7 J5w) or Osunaarashi(0-0 M5e)

Only significant difference in Ms is Tokushinho. Re-counting, Asashosakari is probably right on Tokitenku, but I doubt it matters in the least.

Edited by Gurowake

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I have just finished watching Juryo today and only now have I realized how short of promotion candidates they are. I have no idea whether the kyokai is bothered by having a 8-7 J5 Akiseyama in line for promotion or not, but in case they are, a fitting solution would be to have a more flexible arrangement between Makuuchi and Juryo. 40 rikishi in Makuuchi wouldn't hurt and the kyokai might save a few quid in the process. The better part of it would be not having a 10-5 or 9-6 rikishi in upper Juryo having to 'sit' one basho there (though that is not quite common).

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I have just finished watching Juryo today and only now have I realized how short of promotion candidates they are. I have no idea whether the kyokai is bothered by having a 8-7 J5 Akiseyama in line for promotion or not, but in case they are, a fitting solution would be to have a more flexible arrangement between Makuuchi and Juryo. 40 rikishi in Makuuchi wouldn't hurt and the kyokai might save a few quid in the process. The better part of it would be not having a 10-5 or 9-6 rikishi in upper Juryo having to 'sit' one basho there (though that is not quite common).

The number of sekitori used to be 66: 40 in Makuuchi and 26 in Juryo. For reasons that are unknown to me (I'm hoping somebody can explain because I've been rather curious after all this time) they raised the number of sekitori to 70. Each division got 2 extra slots so now it's 42 for Makuuchi and 28 for Juryo. Personally I think it rounds out the sekitori ranks better with a nice even number like that.

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As far as I remember - so probably wrong - the increase in the number of Juryo and Makunouchi rikishi coincided with the removal of the 'kosho' rule - and so was meant to 'ease' the change in rules.

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The number of sekitori used to be 66: 40 in Makuuchi and 26 in Juryo. For reasons that are unknown to me (I'm hoping somebody can explain because I've been rather curious after all this time) they raised the number of sekitori to 70. Each division got 2 extra slots so now it's 42 for Makuuchi and 28 for Juryo. Personally I think it rounds out the sekitori ranks better with a nice even number like that.

Shumitto's not suggesting a blanket reduction of the number of makuuchi rikishi, I think, rather making both divisions flexible so that it could also be e.g. 40+30 instead of 42+28 in a situation like what we have right now. They actually used to go below capacity for both divisions occasionally in the past (without checking: until the early 1980s I believe), but there was no spillover from makuuchi to juryo, so having fewer makuuchi rikishi automatically reduced the total number of sekitori spots as well.

Purely theoretically, I'd be in favour of such a flexible arrangement, but on the other hand I suspect it would create as many problems as it would solve:

1) Gives even more discretionary power to the banzuke committee - there were some downright inexplicable banzuke decisions back in the old days, e.g. a J3 9-6 not getting promoted even though makuuchi was below capacity, or an optional makuuchi reduction causing very promotable guys to get stuck in makushita due to the lack of spillover.

2) The rikishi won't like having their earnings opportunities tampered with - what's stopping the Kyokai from making a 40/30 split semi-permanent and save money by paying fewer maegashira and more juryo salaries?

2) Potential for things to snowball in one direction or the other - what do you do if the split has already been changed to 40/30 and you get another basho with many demotable and few promotable rikishi? How high/low do you go at the extremes?

3) Potential for the low maegashira or upper juryo to conspire into producing few demotable or many promotable records - after all, if you know the Kyokai isn't bound to 42/28 but could go to e.g. 44/26, why not try to play into that?

Edited by Asashosakari
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Not to mention the fact that a "flexible" cutoff line will still create just as many borderline situations, just on a different level. For example, if you have only one not-really-promotable rikishi, what do you do? Can't have an odd number of rikishi in makuuchi / juryo (I assume you'd keep that property in the flexible scheme). So, you'll end up with a dilemma of either overpromoting the rikishi in question, or reducing the size of Makuuchi and screwing over someone else who should have been promoted in his own right...

The banzuke is not just "divisions", its a long long ranking of every rikishi in Ozumo, in which the first 42 rikishi are called "Makuuchi". So long as the ordering of the rikishi is fair, I don't mind if the 42nd rikishi is "not worth being there", so long as he is more "worth being there" based on the established rules than the rikishi directly behind him...

My two cents on the matter is that I have no problem with some rikishi getting overpromoted from time to time, just as I have no problem with someone getting a bit of tough banzuke luck. After all, if it is all done in fairness, those things tend to even out in the long run. With the exception of the cream of the crop who go to the top, in a seesaw promotion system like the banzuke, everyone else tends to find their real level and bounce up and down around it. For some people, that means bouncing around from the jo'i to the mid maegashira. For some others, it means bouncing around between Juryo and Makuuchi. It really works in the long run (mostly), and don't think its easy to make it fairer, unless you do a major re-haul and start counting more than one basho result for the movements.

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Indeed, I see it as just another example of banzuke luck. Sometimes things work out well and everything falls into place nicely, sometimes things don't work out so well. When those places where it doesn't work out so well happen to be between divisions, it really shouldn't be any different. Plus, with injuries, it's bound to happen that you're going to have to overpromote people just because there were more effective losses than wins. Asashosakari gave all the points I would think of in terms of why a sliding scale would be a bad idea.

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Not to mention the fact that a "flexible" cutoff line will still create just as many borderline situations, just on a different level. For example, if you have only one not-really-promotable rikishi, what do you do? Can't have an odd number of rikishi in makuuchi / juryo (I assume you'd keep that property in the flexible scheme). So, you'll end up with a dilemma of either overpromoting the rikishi in question, or reducing the size of Makuuchi and screwing over someone else who should have been promoted in his own right...

FWIW, odd numbers of rikishi per division didn't seem to bother them back when they did handle things more flexibly. But I'll freely admit that whole period between the cut to 34 makuuchi in 1967 and the establishment of 38 as a firmly fixed total some 20 years later is quite a mystery to me.

The banzuke is not just "divisions", its a long long ranking of every rikishi in Ozumo, in which the first 42 rikishi are called "Makuuchi". So long as the ordering of the rikishi is fair, I don't mind if the 42nd rikishi is "not worth being there", so long as he is more "worth being there" based on the established rules than the rikishi directly behind him...

Excellent point.

It's probably far from the only case, but at a quick check here's one of those really weird decisions, the Aki 1982 results feeding into the Kyushu 1982 banzuke. Makuuchi was at capacity (38 in those days) for Aki, but they decided to drop five guys to juryo and only promote four, going to 37 in makuuchi for Kyushu. In the process they not only had to drop a 6-9 maegashira by 5 ranks, they also managed to not promote a juryo rikishi who was 8-7 at J1. Each of those guys obviously deserved to be in makuuchi more than did "Blank". I'd be surprised if that made sense even at the time, let alone in hindsight.

Edited by Asashosakari

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The idea of giving the banzuke comittee more discretionary powers is in itself not a bad one, the problem is what this comittee is doing with the powers it already has. I admit it that their unexplainable decisions can't be made more logical by simply changing the rules.

Any flexible arrangement would have to have a set ratio as its ideal, be it 42/28 or 40/30 or else the whole system loses its purpose. It also means any deviation should be corrected as soon as possible, so that back-scratching is also checked.

If it would snowball at all, it would probably be in the direction of having Juryo growing too big because the most common scenario has more demotion than promotion candidates. Again, the ratio mentioned above would limit that but also make the whole thing useless unless we can count on luck to even things out.

At any rate, the biggest problem I see with this idea is that it requires many adjustements to solve a problem that is too small or is not even there.

Edited by shumitto

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Indeed, I see it as just another example of banzuke luck. Sometimes things work out well and everything falls into place nicely, sometimes things don't work out so well. When those places where it doesn't work out so well happen to be between divisions, it really shouldn't be any different. Plus, with injuries, it's bound to happen that you're going to have to overpromote people just because there were more effective losses than wins. Asashosakari gave all the points I would think of in terms of why a sliding scale would be a bad idea.

Just a few years ago there was a dearth of good sanyaku candidates, and so these positions had rotating doors for quite some time and the occupants were there by banzuke luck. I found it somewhat annoying, but I don't think a fix for that was needed either.

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It is known that 42 is a perfect number.

Not only is that untrue, the article you linked to doesn't describe it as a perfect number either. It is actually "abundant", as the sum of its factors exceeds itself, which is mentioned. It's "semi-perfect", as the sum of *some* of its divisors are equal to itself. That is, 42 = 21 + 14 + 7. Note that this can be done with any multiple of 6, (x/2 + x/3 + x/6 = x) so there are plenty of such numbers. In fact, any multiple of a semi-perfect or perfect number is semi-perfect by a similar argument.

The first three perfect numbers are 6, 28, and 496.

I have no idea what you're getting at with 21 = 7 * 3 matches, and quite often there are multiple injured rikishi so that there's less than 21 matches in Makuuchi anyway.

Edited by Gurowake

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It is known that 42 is a perfect number.

Not only is that untrue, (...)

But 42 is the most important number by far. It's The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything

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See you on Towel Day, bettega.

Absolutely! :-) I know where's my towel since 2005

(look for Fabio Bettega)

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East Rank West
????? J1 Seiro(7-8 J1e)
Asasekiryu(9-6 J8e) J2 Nishikigi(8-7 J6e)
Fujiazuma(6-9 J1w) J3 Sadanofuji(6-9 J2e)
Homarefuji(4-11 M15e) J4 Arawashi(7-8 J4e)
Kagamio(7-7 J4w) J5 Kagayaki(4-11 M16e)
Chiyonokuni(10-5 J13w) J6 Azumaryu(9-6 J11w)
Kitaharima(5-10 J3w) J7 Ishiura(8-7 J10e)
Endo(1-6 M11e) J8 Asahisho(8-7 J10w)
Jokoryu(2-4 M14e) J9 Tsurugisho(8-7 J12e)
Chiyoshoma(8-7 J12w) J10 Chiyoo(6-9 J8w)
Tenkaiho(5-10 J7e) J11 Asabenkei(7-8 J11e)
Chiyomaru(5-6 J7w) J12 Onosho(8-7 J14e)
Dewahayate(8-7 J14w) J13 Shotenro(4-3 Ms1e)
Amakaze(7-8 J13e) J14 Kyokutaisei(5-10 J9w)

I can't imagine Endo and Jokoryu going down this far. Endo 13 ranks down and Jokoryu 11 ranks down would mean they get demoted about as much as Osunaarashi although they entered the basho and even got a win / two wins.

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That reminds me - my take on juryo:

Akiseyama (J5w 8-7) J1 Seiro (J1e 7-8)

Asasekiryu (J8e 9-6) J2 Nishikigi (J6e 8-7)

Fujiazuma (J1w 6-9) J3 Sadanofuji (J2e 6-9)

Homarefuji (M15e 4-11) J4 Arawashi (J4e 7-8)

Kagamio (J4w 7-7-1) J5 Kagayaki (M16e 4-11)

Endo (M11e 1-6-8) J6 Jokoryu (M14e 2-4-9)

Chiyonokuni (J13w 10-5) J7 Azumaryu (J11w 9-6)

Kitaharima (J3w 5-10) J8 Ishiura (J10e 8-7)

Asahisho (J10w 8-7) J9 Tsurugisho (J12e 8-7)

Chiyoshoma (J12w 8-7) J10 Onosho (J14e 8-7)

Dewahayate (J14w 8-7) J11 Chiyoo (J8w 6-9)

Asabenkei (J11e 7-8) J12 Tenkaiho (J7e 5-10)

Chiyomaru (J7w 5-6-4) J13 Shotenro (Ms1e 4-3)

Amakaze (J13e 7-8) J14 Kyokutaisei (J9w 5-10)

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So your bet is, that Osunaarashi will be lucky and stay in Makuuchi?

I hope so. *fingers crossed*

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I can't imagine Endo and Jokoryu going down this far. Endo 13 ranks down and Jokoryu 11 ranks down would mean they get demoted about as much as Osunaarashi although they entered the basho and even got a win / two wins.

I never claimed I was any good at this. It's done on a purely mechanical basis without really thinking about implications. I suspect that they will indeed promote people with KKs at the bottom of Juryo more than I mechanically do so, and such a thing makes sense. But I prefer sticking to rote rules and at least providing some sort of picture of what those rules would create.

edit: I might also have both of them one rank too low, which given the crowdedness of that area of the banzuke would mean significant movement. I may have miscounted, or may just be mistaken as to what rule they will use in determining how far to demote them.

Edited by Gurowake

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So your bet is, that Osunaarashi will be lucky and stay in Makuuchi?

I hope so. *fingers crossed*

It's not his bet, which would be foolish. It's like the banzuke *should* be.

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I can't imagine Endo and Jokoryu going down this far. Endo 13 ranks down and Jokoryu 11 ranks down would mean they get demoted about as much as Osunaarashi although they entered the basho and even got a win / two wins.

I never claimed I was any good at this. It's done on a purely mechanical basis without really thinking about implications. I suspect that they will indeed promote people with KKs at the bottom of Juryo more than I mechanically do so, and such a thing makes sense. But I prefer sticking to rote rules and at least providing some sort of picture of what those rules would create.

edit: I might also have both of them one rank too low, which given the crowdedness of that area of the banzuke would mean significant movement. I may have miscounted, or may just be mistaken as to what rule they will use in determining how far to demote them.

I thought it is your claim to be good at this and I think you are. And when I tried to create the Juryo Banzuke I compared mine to yours. Then I recognized that I had no big differences except that I had Endo and Jokoryu about three ranks higher than you but that could also be my mistake.

If you prefer sticking to rote rules and going straight by the numbers it makes perfectly sense of course. I referred more to the demoting decisions they have made in the past and for example on the Kyushu 2015 Banzuke they have been very kind to a one-win-Takayasu (nine ranks down) and a two-wins-Sadanofuji (seven ranks down), so maybe they don't punish these horrible records so hard any more.

I am also not sure about how far they promote the 8-7's in Juryo. Akiseyama and Nishikigi are very lucky of course because of the special situation. I would predict that the 8-7's in the lower half of Juryo don't get promoted very much. Tsurugisho and Chiyoshoma might be a bit lucky here because of a little banzuke gap. Not sure about Onosho and Dewahayate either. I have them only 1,5 ranks up (even behind Chiyoo, Tenkaiho, Chiyomaru and Asabenkei) but now that I saw the take of Asashosakari, this suddenly feels totally wrong. :-)

I find this banzuke making stuff very exciting but of course I wouldn't call me an expert. For example, I still didn't get the banzuke rules in the lower divisions so I would have no idea how to create a Ms1-Ms15 banzuke...

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