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Kintamayama

Kyokai Elections January 2016

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With 99 votes and FPTP (a terrible voting system for something like this), 10 votes are sufficient for an election. 9 is at least good for a tie.

Kabu by Ichimon:
Dewanoumi: 32
Nishinoseki: 20

Isegahama: 11
Takanohana: 8

Tokitsukaze: 18

Takasago: 12

(I don't know which two are ineligible, so that's 101)
The politics in the voting and nomination are curious. Is there a historical reason that Tokitsukaze is punching 'below its weight'?

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I'll have to quibble with those numbers (I'm not sure how you got to 101 total).

Oyakata on borrowed kabu are typically expected to vote with their lending ichimon, so the presumed numbers are something like this:

Dewanoumi: 31 - 31 minus 1 plus 1 (ex-Hochiyama borrowing Kimigahama, Onogawa being lent to ex-Daido)

Nishonoseki: 20

Tokitsukaze: 16 - 17 minus 1 (ex-Tosayutaka borrowing Ajigawa)

Takasago: 13 - 12 plus 1 (Kimigahama being lent to ex-Hochiyama)

Isegahama: 12 - 11 plus 1 (Ajigawa being lent to ex-Tosayutaka)

Takanohana: 7 - 8 minus 1 (ex-Daido borrowing Onogawa)

As an additional uncertainty, the following guys are possibly not eligible to vote: Minatogawa (Nishonoseki, councillor), Otake (Takanohana, councillor), Tateyama (Nishonoseki, re-employed past age 65).

The press reports tend to say that councillors have "relinquished" their oyakata status, so it would be odd if they're allowed to vote. (Not that that means much, logic and consistency have never been a strong point of the Kyokai's internal regulations.) I'm just guessing about Tateyama, but it wouldn't surprise me if there's a restriction on his eligibility to vote.

Is there a historical reason that Tokitsukaze is punching 'below its weight'?

They typically lose a bunch of votes towards Takanohana, so they don't have enough to support two candidates of their own. Edited by Asashosakari
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One vote per oyakata correct?

Are the elections by secret ballot or do they do a roll call? Another thing I'm curious about is do the ichimons gather their oyakata around and pretty much tell everybody who to vote for?

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One vote per oyakata correct?

Yup.

Are the elections by secret ballot or do they do a roll call?

Secret ballot as far as I know. There was a bit of a ruckus about that back in 2010 when they first had to do a vote again after a decade of uncontested "elections".

Another thing I'm curious about is do the ichimons gather their oyakata around and pretty much tell everybody who to vote for?

That's more or less what happens, at the very least for the amount of votes that are definitely needed to push their own guys through. No idea how they handle whoever is left beyond that - I would guess the groups know who their own "unsafe voters" are, if any (e.g. the guys in Tokitsukaze who are presumed to keep voting for Taka), don't rely on those guys' votes for their own candidate(s), and just let them vote for whomever.

We haven't heard anything about potential voting alliances in this election, and the #10 guy (whoever is least favoured in Dewanoumi) and the #11 guy (Isegahama-ichimon's Takashima) both probably aren't overly attractive to the other groups, so it's hard to say where the excess votes will end up this time.

If the numbers above are accurate, I suspect Dewanoumi are going to try splitting their votes 8/8/8/7 and hope that 7 votes is enough for the last guy to beat out Takashima, making a bet that the other groups won't bother supporting him. The wildcard here is Takanohana - I can see him getting a lot more extra votes than his usual 3 this time, by oyakata taking a stand in favour of his selection as rijicho.

Edited by Asashosakari
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The thing I've seen when there's actually had to be elections is when Oyakata don't vote in favor of their ichimon's candidate and get kicked out of their ichimon when it's found out that they voted the way they voted. Examples of this would include the current Otowayama (Kobo) and Tatsunami (Asahiyutaka). IF there are other Oyakata who vote for Takanohana this time could we be seeing a shift of Oyakata's to the Takanohana ichimon?

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The thing I've seen when there's actually had to be elections is when Oyakata don't vote in favor of their ichimon's candidate and get kicked out of their ichimon when it's found out that they voted the way they voted. Examples of this would include the current Otowayama (Kobo) and Tatsunami (Asahiyutaka). IF there are other Oyakata who vote for Takanohana this time could we be seeing a shift of Oyakata's to the Takanohana ichimon?

I think they're past that stuff now, it's not as acrimonious as it was back in 2010 when Takanohana broke up the comfortable arrangements the groups had settled into. And I think we won't see anybody outright go against their ichimon here (i.e. voting differently than he promised), only cases where it's known beforehand internally and precautions have been taken that it won't result in a candidate outright failing to be elected.

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Dewanoumi all the way!

http://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/1598124.html

ba_f_20160129_tokuhyou_w500_0.jpg

Directors

Dewanoumi: Dewanoumi 9, Kasugano 9, Sakaigawa 9, Yamahibiki 10

Isegahama: Isegahama 10, (Takashima 6)

Nishonoseki: Nishonoseki 10, Oguruma 9

Takanohana: Takanohana 9

Takasago: Hakkaku 9

Tokitsukaze: Kagamiyama 9

Vice-directors

Dewanoumi: Fujishima 26, Tamanoi 24

Nishonoseki: Shibatayama 25

Tokitsukaze: (Izutsu 24)

Tamanoi won the run-off vote against Izutsu 54-44.

These results are going to be a lot more difficult to make sense of than those of the last three elections...

Edited by Asashosakari
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Directors

Dewanoumi: Dewanoumi 9, Kasugano 9, Sakaigawa 9, Yamahibiki 10

Isegahama: Isegahama 10, (Takashima 6)

Nishonoseki: Nishonoseki 10, Oguruma 9

Takanohana: Takanohana 9

Takasago: Hakkaku 9

Tokitsukaze: Kagamiyama 9

Definitely looks like Isegahama's bid for rijicho has taken a serious blow, with him failing to elect a second riji from his ichimon... I do wonder who the Dewanoumi guys are supporting for the post though.

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Definitely looks like Isegahama's bid for rijicho has taken a serious blow, with him failing to elect a second riji from his ichimon... I do wonder who the Dewanoumi guys are supporting for the post though.

It's a bit of a weird situation, having the by far strongest ichimon reduced to the position of king-maker because they don't have any credible candidates of their own. You'd have to think their long-term view will be on regaining the rijicho position down the road, which might be easier if they support 52-year-old Hakkaku (who will at most serve for 12 years) than 43-year-old Takanohana...

Isegahama is of course even another three years older than Hakkaku and would only get 8 years at the top, but he didn't get talked about much in recent press coverage, compared to Hakkaku and Taka. So who knows.

Edit: It would of course be interesting to know where the Dewanoumi candidates got their extra 6 votes from. If it's all from one group, then only Tokitsukaze is possible - might they have made a wacky deal to support Kagamiyama (turns 58 in a couple of weeks, would only get 6 years) as a transitional rijicho? Defeating Izutsu for the vice-director position with a candidate of their own would go against that theory though, I guess.

Edited by Asashosakari

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It would of course be interesting to know where the Dewanoumi candidates got their extra 6 votes from. If it's all from one group, then only Tokitsukaze is possible - might they have made a wacky deal to support Kagamiyama (turns 58 in a couple of weeks, would only get 6 years) as a transitional rijicho? Defeating Izutsu for the vice-director position with a candidate of their own would go against that idea though, I guess.

Even considering someone like Kagamiyama would be a huge shift in attitude though. There hasn't been a rijicho who wasn't at least a former Ozeki in ages.

It's a bit of a weird situation, having the by far strongest ichimon reduced to the position of king-maker because they don't have any credible candidates of their own. You'd have to think their long-term view will be on regaining the rijicho position down the road, which might be easier if they support 52-year-old Hakkaku (who will at most serve for 12 years) than 43-year-old Takanohana...

True enough, but I am thinking that a plan that involves preventing the extremely popular (and of proven competence) Takanohana from EVER making it to rijicho is more or less doomed to failure. They could go with the thought that if he becomes rijicho now, there might be a chance to topple him in the future, once he has made a few more enemies. But it is indeed a very interesting situation, and I, for one, am very curious to see how it all pans out.

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Even considering someone like Kagamiyama would be a huge shift in attitude though. There hasn't been a rijicho who wasn't at least a former Ozeki in ages.

Completely true, of course, and the whole idea probably also breaks down on the fact that Kagamiyama hasn't really done anything to distinguish himself since he first got elected to the board. Still, I'm stunned to see Dewanoumi of all groups attract so many votes from elsewhere, and it's hard to see how that might have happened without them offering some reciprocal support to a rijicho candidate. The question remains, who. :-)

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That is just amazing that Dewanoumi was able to clean house like they did. I'm also interested as to who they plan on putting out for a candidate as Rijicho. Kasugano? Yamahibiki? Meanwhile with Hakkaku, Takanohana, and Isegahama all vying for the spot is there going to be some kind of campaigning in the run up to Haru?

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Gut feelings says that it will be Hakkaku getting the rijicho post.

Edited by rhyen

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Gut feelings says that it will be Hakkaku getting the rikishi post.

I don't think he will be mounting the dohyo ever again...

sorry couldn't help it ;-)

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Which Ichimon did Takanohana originate from?

The one-stop for all kabu questions: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Kabu.aspx?rikishi=2

And the multi-million dollar question will be what the Takanohana ichimon will be called in 20+ years when he finally retires from the kyokai.

It will still be called the Takanohana Ichimon, after its founder, I assume. There is no need for an ichimon to have the same name as one of the stables in it.

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Which Ichimon did Takanohana originate from?

The one-stop for all kabu questions: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Kabu.aspx?rikishi=2

And the multi-million dollar question will be what the Takanohana ichimon will be called in 20+ years when he finally retires from the kyokai.

It will still be called the Takanohana Ichimon, after its founder, I assume. There is no need for an ichimon to have the same name as one of the stables in it.

Is that why the Nishonoseki ichimon stayed the same even though the namesake beya had closed for a while?

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Is that why the Nishonoseki ichimon stayed the same even though the namesake beya had closed for a while?

I think that was mainly because it was their intention all along that Nishonoseki-beya would be revived in some way; they insinuated as much when the original stable had to shut down.

As for the Takanohana group, unless there's a massive upsurge in their fortunes (e.g. creating an ozeki or even yokozuna so that there's a definite legacy to protect/maintain), I wouldn't be surprised if the extant stables simply get amalgamated back into one of the other ichimon once Takanohana-beya is no more. That's assuming the ichimon system matters at all in 20 years.

Edited by Asashosakari

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http://www.asagei.com/excerpt/46937

for further speculation/reading on the rijicho election & Hakuho's future.

If we can trust the article (can some verify my limited reading and google translate)

Hakkaku is the conservative faction that is anti-foreigners (the ones who introduced no foreigner rule for oyakatas).

Hakuho support Takanohana, who is open to letting Hakuho getting ichidai-toshiyori status.

Some of the Dewanoumi new blood (Yamahibiki is named in another article on teragram_oen Twitter page) are in the Takanohana faction.

Edited by rhyen
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http://www.asagei.com/excerpt/46937

for further speculation/reading on the rijicho election & Hakuho's future.

If we can trust the article (can some verify my limited reading and google translate)

Hakkaku is the conservative faction that is anti-foreigners (the ones who introduced no foreigner rule for oyakatas).

Hakuho support Takanohana, who is open to letting Hakuho getting ichidai-toshiyori status.

Some of the Dewanoumi new blood (Yamahibiki is named in another article on teragram_oen Twitter page) are in the Takanohana faction.

From what I'm reading of the article, Hakkaku certainly hasn't been doing himself any favors on his way to becoming Kitanoumi's number 2 and then his successor. Tochiazuma certainly seems to be in the Takanohana camp and I'm sure he has some influence over some of the other oyakata's as well. That combined with Dewanoumi, we could possibly be seeing a revolution here soon.

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http://www.asagei.com/excerpt/46937

for further speculation/reading on the rijicho election & Hakuho's future.

If we can trust the article (can some verify my limited reading and google translate)

Hakkaku is the conservative faction that is anti-foreigners (the ones who introduced no foreigner rule for oyakatas).

Hakuho support Takanohana, who is open to letting Hakuho getting ichidai-toshiyori status.

Some of the Dewanoumi new blood (Yamahibiki is named in another article on teragram_oen Twitter page) are in the Takanohana faction.

From what I'm reading of the article, Hakkaku certainly hasn't been doing himself any favors on his way to becoming Kitanoumi's number 2 and then his successor. Tochiazuma certainly seems to be in the Takanohana camp and I'm sure he has some influence over some of the other oyakata's as well. That combined with Dewanoumi, we could possibly be seeing a revolution here soon.

Have almost nil knowledge about the politics of the kyokai so did read the whole thread with a kinda glossed-over look in my eyes, however in really simple layman's explanation what would happen in this "revolution" and how will it affect the common fans?

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From what I'm reading of the article, Hakkaku certainly hasn't been doing himself any favors on his way to becoming Kitanoumi's number 2 and then his successor. Tochiazuma certainly seems to be in the Takanohana camp and I'm sure he has some influence over some of the other oyakata's as well. That combined with Dewanoumi, we could possibly be seeing a revolution here soon.

Meh, the tabloids could publish a semi-credible "hasn't done himself any favours on his way to [current position in the Kyokai]" article about any high-profile oyakata, including Takanohana. Everybody has made missteps, everybody has enemies. Not to mention that that article was written before Kitanoumi died, so the situation has already changed quite drastically.

Tochiazuma and other oyakata born in the 1970s being largely in support of Takanohana is nothing new; what's yet to be tested is whether that means they would outright support him against the older-generation oyakata in a power struggle or if it's just lukewarm "we were his contemporaries and we like what he has to say" support that could shift to somebody else at any minute. For instance to Tochiazuma himself - he's only four years younger than Takanohana, and if he has any serious aspirations of his own (his quick march through the non-executive ranks would indicate he does), I don't see why it's a given that he would support Takanohana.

(All that aside - I'd find it hard to declare it a "revolution" if the four-month interim rijicho simply doesn't get elected for a full term.)

... however in really simple layman's explanation what would happen in this "revolution" ...

Nothing that would be apparent to us outsiders without requiring years of hindsight. Edited by Asashosakari
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(All that aside - I'd find it hard to declare it a "revolution" if the four-month interim rijicho simply doesn't get elected for a full term.)

Well, you could describe Takanohana's entire oyakata career so far as a "revolution" in many ways... There's no doubt he stirred the pot in ways no one has before him (he founded the first new ichimon in ages for crying out loud). And if he does get elected, he'd be the youngest rijicho ever (by a wide margin as well, if you don't count Futabayama who is the only one to be even close).

Sure, at this stage it doesn't sound like a huge revolution any more that people are supporting him for the position, but if you view it as a whole picture of events in the last decade, he does deserve the term.

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