YDC convenes-After Aki 2015

[Kintamayama 45,484]

The YDC youngsters convened today to discuss the two main topics of the Aki 2015 basho- Kakuryuu's henkas and Terunofuji's possible tsunatori.

Regarding Kakuryuu:

Chairman Moriya (is that his name?): "It was a difficult basho for him as he has an injured left shoulder so he did what he had to do to win and gambarized well!!"

Tokura-san, musician and member : "Going boing boing and skipping and hopping is not good, but I think an occasional 'change of stance' is a legitimate technique.."

Member Okamoto: "I don't particularly mind the jumping. The guys losing to that jumping are at fault.."

Some voices: "It is not a desirable thing to do for a Yokozuna!!"

Other voices: "As it is not an illegal move, there is nothing we can do about it!!"

Terunofuji Yokozuna run:

Chairman Moriya (is that his name?): "A 12 win yusho seems to be 'light'. Even if he gets a zensho yusho next basho I won't be able to support a promotion with open arms.."

They all wished Hakuhou a speedy recovery. "If Hakuhou were present it would have made for a more interesting basho. I am longing for his return," said Chairman Moriya (is that his name?) .

They also wished Harumafuji a speedy return before digging into some sushi, no doubt.

Edited September 28, 2015 by Kintamayama

[Atenzan 1,084]

http://www.banzuke.com/94-5/msg00038.html

That email from the Sumo ML from way back in 1994 is a great rule of thumb for judging if an Ozeki's performance is likely to be considered a tsunatori-basho. In a nutshell:

If he's 15-0 or 14-1 then it definitely is a tsunatori-basho. (14-1 can only ever be yusho, yusho-doten or jun-yusho)

If he's 13-2 then he has to be yusho-doten or yusho for it to be a tsunatori-basho.

If he's 12-3 then he has to be yusho for it to be a tsunatori-basho.

If he's 11-4 or worse then he has an ice-cube's chance in the desert.

[Asashosakari 19,593]

If he's 15-0 or 14-1 then it definitely is a tsunatori-basho. (14-1 can only ever be yusho, yusho-doten or jun-yusho)

If he's 13-2 then he has to be yusho-doten or yusho for it to be a tsunatori-basho.

If he's 12-3 then he has to be yusho for it to be a tsunatori-basho.

If he's 11-4 or worse then he has an ice-cube's chance in the desert.

That was the rough post-Futahaguro standard, but they have steadily moved away from that during the last 15 years, including a return to considering more than two basho in a tsunatori. Kisenosato's best results have been three 13-2 jun-yusho (outside the quoted standard), but he was certainly considered to be on a tsuna run after them.

[Gurowake 4,096]

(14-1 can only ever be yusho, yusho-doten or jun-yusho)

I will agree with you that in the vast majority of cases that will be true, but it is not too hard to come up with a situation where, unlikely as it may sound, a 14-1 is not even a jun-yusho. It is possible that there are 2 15-0 rikishi because they never could be scheduled against each other, most likely because they are from the same heya. Why wouldn't the 14-1 have lost to both of them? He's also in their heya. I supremely apologize for doing this level of nitpicking, but such is my nature.

[Gurowake 4,096]

If he's 15-0 or 14-1 then it definitely is a tsunatori-basho. (14-1 can only ever be yusho, yusho-doten or jun-yusho)

If he's 13-2 then he has to be yusho-doten or yusho for it to be a tsunatori-basho.

If he's 12-3 then he has to be yusho for it to be a tsunatori-basho.

If he's 11-4 or worse then he has an ice-cube's chance in the desert.

That was the rough post-Futahaguro standard, but they have steadily moved away from that during the last 15 years, including a return to considering more than two basho in a tsunatori. Kisenosato's best results have been three 13-2 jun-yusho (outside the quoted standard), but he was certainly considered to be on a tsuna run after them.

Not after the most recent one, Natsu 2014, if I recall correctly. I'm fairly sure they explicitly said he was not tsunatori. It was thought at the time that might have been said in order to calm his nerves and allow him to back-door into promotion with a yusho under less pressure.

[Atenzan 1,084]

(14-1 can only ever be yusho, yusho-doten or jun-yusho)

I will agree with you that in the vast majority of cases that will be true, but it is not too hard to come up with a situation where, unlikely as it may sound, a 14-1 is not even a jun-yusho. It is possible that there are 2 15-0 rikishi because they never could be scheduled against each other, most likely because they are from the same heya. Why wouldn't the 14-1 have lost to both of them? He's also in their heya. I supremely apologize for doing this level of nitpicking, but such is my nature.

Not at all mate, I admit I am not nearly as knowledgable on sumo as the vast majority of users here in any case. However, I am now extremely curious as to whether this has ever happened in an actual honbasho, either in Makuuchi or Juryo, either way that's hellishly bad luck.

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

I'm fairly certain that if Terunofuji gets the yusho in November, this will all be settled. I'm sure that only another 12-3 yusho would deny him that promotion.

[inhashi 2,363]

Terunofuji would have to at the least get 13 wins... 14 would be a definite green light to consider promotion.

[Gurowake 4,096]

Nothing even close to my scenario has happened. The closest would be the two playoff matches between Takanohana and Takanonami who each finished 14-1 those two times, and when there were plenty of other rikishi in their heya competing close to their level at the time. Takatoriki in particular for the linked basho was 12-3.

Edited September 28, 2015 by Gurowake

[krindel 673]

Well, Terunofuji is in the only heya at the moment for which Gurowake's scenario is even remotely possible :P

[Asashosakari 19,593]

I'm fairly certain that if Terunofuji gets the yusho in November, this will all be settled. I'm sure that only another 12-3 yusho would deny him that promotion.

I daresay it also depends on how many of the three yokozuna actually show up. 12-3 D -> 13-2 Y without Hakuho and Harumafuji in the mix either time? I'm all for "you can only beat those who are available", but that's for a tsuna run with unquestionable pedigree, i.e. two yusho. 12-3 playoff loss looks a bit light in that context, especially from a guy who's still very early in his ozeki tenure and doesn't "need" to be promoted.

[rzombie1988 159]

If Teruno can't get the nod after two titles, compared to Kakuryu's 1(pre-promotion), that's wrong. Kak has also never done better than a 12-3 since his promotion.

Edited September 28, 2015 by rzombie1988

[Jakusotsu 6,037]

It doesn't really matter if Terunofuji gets the nod after the next basho or not. He will get there eventually. Even Hakuho spent six (active) basho as Ozeki.

[Kishinoyama 596]

It sounds like the YDC's opinions about Kakuryu mirror the opinions of the members here. (Bye, bye...)

[ScreechingOwl 343]

Just looking at past numbers for yusho promotion, in and of itself, isn't enough: context is important. After the Futahaguro debacle (promoted to yokozuna despite never winning a yusho, and then run out of sumo after a run in with his oyakata, never having won a yusho), the council announced that henceforth the standard would be two consecutive yusho. (Although clearing up the Futahaguro problem might have simply required winning one yusho, right?)

The two consecutive yusho standard resulted, as should have been expected, in very few new yokozuna being created. The Kakaryu promotion officially changed that: a 14-1 jun-yusho (following a playoff) followed by a 14-1 yusho was sufficient. But even before that the YDC had indicated that the promotion rule had changed: in Hatsu 2006 Tochiazuma won the yusho with a 14-1 record. In Haru, Tochiozuma finished 12-3 (with not even the jun-yusho) and despite this the YDC announced his tsuna run was alive. Of course it all came to naught, as Tochiazume started off Natsu poorly and then withdrew with an injury, but that's not the point - if he had taken the yusho at Natsu he would have been promoted.

It's hard for me to see how Terunofuji will not be promoted if he takes the yusho and finishes 15-0 or 14-1. And I think 13-2 would do it too if all the yokozuna are actively competing. One factor the committee considers is whether the candidate is likely to be a successful yokozuna. (Some may remember that at least some on the committee were reluctant to promote Harumafuji for fear he was too light to be a success at that level, although it was never expressed in exactly those words. And frankly, even some of us who like Ama - including myself - wondered if he was going to be able to last a year as yokozuna.)

As for the last point, both sides are correct: a henka is not illegal, yet it isn't quality yokozuna sumo either.

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

Even if he were to achieve a 13-2 or above, I think he needs a little more time. Better to make sure he is truly ready, and make sure that he is healed of injury.

[rhyen 1,844]

It sounds like the YDC's opinions about Kakuryu mirror the opinions of the members here. (Bye, bye...)

Compared to the emphasis on howls against Harumafuji henkas?

[Usagi 36]

Kakuryu should be reprimanded for his use of Henka. Though it is legal it is in no way a legit thing to do for a Yokozuna. (Don't know if the fine difference between legal and legit, that work's in German, works in English too.)

It is okay for a hurted Maegashira or an old rikishi + 35 to do once in a while, but it is a disgrace to the Yokozuna-rank.

Doing no Henka is not about rules but about sportmanship and fair play.

[Usagi 36]

13:2 is normlly enough to gain a yusho, 12:3 is not. Consideringthat, Terunofuji should need 14 victories and the Yusho next Basho, to make it to Yokozuna. But if he stays unhurt, it should be only a question of time. After Asashoryu came Hakuho and Terunofuji could be Hakuho's successor.