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Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2015

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Any chance maybe of a third Sekiwake spot opening for Tochinoshin? And if not, could he get promoted directly from K1e to Ozeki with a 12 or 13 win Kyushu basho?

As has been mentioned, 10 wins don't appear to be enough to force an extra slot. 10 + 10 might do it, since then he would be on am Ozeki run.

As for the other part of the question, 8 wins + 10 wins don't make the start of an Ozeki run for anyone, let alone Tochinoshin... 13 wins next basho would get him to 31, nowhere near enough to force a promotion from Komusubi to Ozeki. A zensho might hypothetically do it, but nothing else.

Edit: And let's face it, Tochinoshin is good, but nowhere near Ozeki quality yet. 8-9 wins at the jo'i is his normal good performance. Unless he really steps up his game, the Ozeki ranks don't need another Goeido.

Edited by krindel
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Any chance maybe of a third Sekiwake spot opening for Tochinoshin? And if not, could he get promoted directly from K1e to Ozeki with a 12 or 13 win Kyushu basho?

As has been mentioned, 10 wins don't appear to be enough to force an extra slot. 10 + 10 might do it, since then he would be on am Ozeki run.

As for the other part of the question, 8 wins + 10 wins don't make the start of an Ozeki run for anyone, let alone Tochinoshin... 13 wins next basho would get him to 31, nowhere near enough to force a promotion from Komusubi to Ozeki. A zensho might hypothetically do it, but nothing else.

Edit: And let's face it, Tochinoshin is good, but nowhere near Ozeki quality yet. 8-9 wins at the jo'i is his normal good performance. Unless he really steps up his game, the Ozeki ranks don't need another Goeido.

One Goeido is one too many in the Oz ranks imo. His sumo is just a wild roulette from deer in the headlights (What he looked like v. Kaisei) to the hokey pokey (Last basho or the one before) to sometimes solid sumo. At least Shin usually delivers solid power sumo (My fave style). But yes the Oz talk is much too early and he has to show a marked improvement in the sanyaku before he is considered. I always pinned him as an eventual Ozeki (Maybe cause he looks a bit like Kotooshu) and have been a bit disappointed at his slow progress.

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Looking back at the history of the current Ozeki+ along with Kotooshu and Asashoryu, all of them reached M3 or better before they turned 23. The only rikishi since them who haven't make Ozeki that managed that are Tochiozan, Tochinoshin, Takayasu, Ichinojo, and Osunaarashi. I looked at the past set of Ozeki as well, and it was generally not met only by those that entered too late in their life to have a realistic chance at meeting that criteria (like Kotomitsuki). There are a few that managed the feat that retired without making Ozeki, and I'm going to guess at least one of the above 5 won't, but only the first two are reaching the climax of their career. They will have to turn it on the next couple years, but it probably will take guys retiring to give them a chance, and I think it just won't happen until too late for them. The last two definitely look like they will make Ozeki eventually. Takayasu, though, well, he has had some good basho, but still has a ways to go and certainly looks like an odd man out of the list.

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Guesses for Juryo and Makushita joi. The promotion situation into Juryo seems fairly clear-cut, so I'm not going to bother waiting for the announcement of who is being promoted. If it turns out they're not promoting Abiko, just swap him with Tamaasuka.

The top two ranks of Juryo are entirely speculative; I wouldn't be surprised if one of them actually will be in Makuuchi instead of Asasekiryu. The last couple Makushitans listed I'm also fairly unsure about, as there are a lot of guys without about the same claim with various records. The just-barely demoted Makuuchi rikishi are really crowding the top of Juryo, but not nearly as bad as in Tochinoshin's case. Satoyama I have getting the worst of the bad luck due to wanting to give "normal" promotions to Shodai and Onosho, but Satoyama could easily end up being ranked above them.

East Rank West
Kagayaki(10-5 J5e) J1 Takayasu(1-3-11 M3w)
Kagamio(4-11 M9w) J2 Seiro(7-8 M16e)
Jokoryu(8-7 J4e) J3 Kitaharima(7-8 J2e)
Hidenoumi(6-9 M15w) J4 Fujiazuma(6-9 J1e)
Arawashi(7-8 J3w) J5 Shodai(11-4 J12w)
Onosho(9-6 J9e) J6 Satoyama(7-8 J4w)
Akiseyama(9-6 J10w) J7 Asahisho(6-9 J6e)
Wakanoshima(7-8 J7w) J8 Kyokutaisei(9-6 J13e)
Tokushinho(7-8 J9w) J9 Ishiura(8-7 J12e)
Asabenkei(6-1 Ms1w) J10 Amakaze(7-8 J10e)
Daishomaru(6-9 J8w) J11 Azumaryu(6-1 Ms2e)
Chiyoo(7-8 J11e) J12 Tenkaiho(5-10 J7e)
Nishikigi(8-7 J14e) J13 Daido(5-2 Ms3e)
Chiyomaru(1-8-6 J1w) J14 Abiko(5-2 Ms5w)
Tamaasuka(4-11 J8e) Ms1 Chiyoshoma(6-1 Ms11e)
Abi(5-10 J11w) Ms2 Daishoho(4-3 Ms4w)
Kotoeko(4-3 Ms5e) Ms3 Kizenryu(6-9 J14w)
Dewahayate(3-4 Ms1e) Ms4 Chiyonokuni(5-2 Ms10e)
Kairyu(4-3 Ms7w) Ms5 Higonojo(5-2 Ms10w)
Tochimaru(4-3 Ms9e) Ms6 Kisenoyama(3-4 Ms2w)
Shotenro(3-12 J13w) Ms7 Sato(6-1 Ms21w)
Akua(5-2 Ms17e) Ms8 Hakuyozan(4-3 Ms12w)
Hamaguchi(4-3 Ms13w) Ms9 Meisei(5-2 Ms19w)
Shosei(4-3 Ms15w) Ms10 Tochihiryu(4-3 Ms16e)
Takaryu(2-5 Ms3w) Ms11 Nankairiki(6-1 Ms32w)
Sasanoyama(3-4 Ms8e) Ms12 Yamatofuji(3-4 Ms8w)
Hitenryu(5-2 Ms23w) Ms13 Terutsuyoshi(4-3 Ms18w)
Rikishin(6-1 Ms36e) Ms14 Ryuden(5-2 Ms25e)
Akinokawa(5-2 Ms28e) Ms15 Ryuonami(3-4 Ms11w)

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Any chance maybe of a third Sekiwake spot opening for Tochinoshin? And if not, could he get promoted directly from K1e to Ozeki with a 12 or 13 win Kyushu basho?

As has been mentioned, 10 wins don't appear to be enough to force an extra slot. 10 + 10 might do it, since then he would be on am Ozeki run.

As for the other part of the question, 8 wins + 10 wins don't make the start of an Ozeki run for anyone, let alone Tochinoshin... 13 wins next basho would get him to 31, nowhere near enough to force a promotion from Komusubi to Ozeki. A zensho might hypothetically do it, but nothing else.

Edit: And let's face it, Tochinoshin is good, but nowhere near Ozeki quality yet. 8-9 wins at the jo'i is his normal good performance. Unless he really steps up his game, the Ozeki ranks don't need another Goeido.

Whoops, he has 8+10 in the past two indeed. I mistook it for 10+10. My bad, I was without internet during the Nagoya basho so I "saved" the results on a piece of paper after watching Kintamayama's senshuraku video off a friend's phone. I have Tochiozan on 8-7 and Tochinoshin on 10-5. Let that be a lesson for the future, don't be dozy.

Hypothetically, if Tochinoshin had made 10-5 in Nagoya and 10-5 now, would that change the banzuke committee's views? 12 wins at K1e would not be impossible for a wrestler in good form, and we have seen numerous rikishi being promoted to Ozeki with 32 wins off 3 basho. Supposing he did get 12 wins in Kyushu in that scenario, could a Komusubi be promoted directly to Ozeki while bypassing Sekiwake entirely?

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The top two ranks of Juryo are entirely speculative; I wouldn't be surprised if one of them actually will be in Makuuchi instead of Asasekiryu.

East Rank West
Kagayaki(10-5 J5e) J1 Takayasu(1-3-11 M3w)

I don't believe that Takayasu will fall in Juryo for the Kyushu... and for me Asasekiryu will be in Juryo in November ;-)

Edited by Kaiomitsuki

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Supposing he did get 12 wins in Kyushu in that scenario, could a Komusubi be promoted directly to Ozeki while bypassing Sekiwake entirely?

No way ;-)

last time a Komusubi was promoted Ozeki, It was in 1938 Maedayama

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=k&form2_rank=o

Interesting list that. 6 of the 15 who did it ended up being promoted to Yokozuna.

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Jury-o duty -- good one! :-P

Wow, I wish I could claim that one as a conscious creation, but it was purely accidental. (Laughing...)

With some delay, but now I've actually had a chance to ponder the final standings...

Day 15 (results, text-only results):

0-3-12 Hakuho Y1 Kakuryu 12-3

kyujo Harumafuji Y2

12-3 Terunofuji O1 Kisenosato 11-4

7-8 Goeido O2 Kotoshogiku 11-4

(o) 8-7 Tochiozan S Myogiryu 8-7 (o)

(o) 10-5 Tochinoshin K Okinoumi 6-9 (x)

M1 Yoshikaze 11-4 (o)

8-7 Osunaarashi M2

In the end the yusho decision was delayed to a playoff, but the Day 14 leader turned out to be the eventual winner in yokozuna Kakuryu, scoring the second 12-3 yusho of the year (the first time since 2003 that that has happened). Terunofuji finished runner-up at the same score and it does seem to be only a matter of time until he wins another one himself.

Shortly before, Kisenosato sent Goeido to makekoshi and his second kadoban...probably not quite where Goeido was hoping to be for the end of his first full year as ozeki. Kotoshogiku dispatched of Tochiozan to finish 11-4, his strongest record in over a year. (And perhaps making up a bit in fans' eyes for the awkward way he unkadobaned himself from 5-7 last basho.) Tochiozan will at least hang on to his Sekiwake East position as Myogiryu also wasn't able to win on senshuraku. Incumbent komusubi Tochinoshin and upcoming komusubi Yoshikaze did win and also received some nice hardware for their excellent tournaments, along with low-ranked Ikioi who proved again that the way to a kanto-sho with "only" 11 wins is by stacking them up early in the basho.

Osunaarashi finished the tournament with a loss to Aoiyama, so at least there's no sting of an unlucky non-promotion now when he ends up at M1 on the next banzuke.

M2 Sadanofuji 2-13 (o)

M3 Takayasu 1-3-11(~)

...

(o) 5-10 Takekaze M8

M9 Kagamio 4-11 (~)

M10

M11

M12 Chiyootori 6-9 (~)

M13 Tokitenku 7-8 (o)

(o) 7-8 Kitataiki M14 Sokokurai 8-7 (o)

(~) 7-8 Asasekiryu M15 Hidenoumi 6-9 (x)

(x) 7-8 Seiro M16 ---

J1

J2 Takanoiwa 9-6 (~)

(o) 10-5 Toyohibiki J3

J4

(~) 10-5 Kagayaki J5 Mitakeumi 12-3 (o)

J6 Shohozan 13-2 (o)

The two sort-of contenders for further promotions from juryo to makuuchi both won on Day 15, so Takanoiwa and Kagayaki will be asking for some slightly tough decisions of the banzuke committee. It's all going to be a bit messy in any case - what's clear is that Hidenoumi and Seiro (posting the same records as two months ago) will be dropping down, but demotion #3 is already harder to gauge. Sadanofuji, Takekaze and Sokokurai helped themselves with final-day victories, while Tokitenku and Kitataiki are safe even after losing as there are five others who clearly ended with worse records.

Beyond that, we're looking at 1 to 3 demotions out of Takayasu, Kagamio, Chiyootori and Asasekiryu. The one thing that's reasonably certain (I hope!) is that the internal order of the last three should be (best) Chiyootori > Asasekiryu > Kagamio (worst). In past years it would have been without question that Takayasu will be ahead of all of them here, receiving enough of a bonus for his high ranking position. Nowadays that's not nearly as sure anymore.

My current presumption: Takayasu and Kagamio down, Takanoiwa additionally up. That would be in line with the apparent paint-by-numbers approach of the current committee (both Takayasu and Kagamio "should" be dropping to the non-existent M16w rank, while the other two are numerically safe), as well as my belief that ex-makuuchi rikishi tend to be given a slightly easier road to getting promoted than would-be debutants (meaning Takanoiwa has done enough to force his way up, but Kagayaki hasn't).

In any case, it looks like there will be plenty of good banzuke luck to be had in the mid-maegashira ranks this time as there's quite a hole from about M8 to M12.

(~) 4-11 Tamaasuka J8

J9

J10

J11 Abi 5-10 (x)

J12

J13 Shotenro 3-12 (x)

(o) 8-7 Nishikigi J14 Kizenryu 6-9 (x)

Ms1 Asabenkei 6-1 (o)

(o) 6-1 Azumaryu Ms2

(o) 5-2 Daido Ms3

Ms4 Daishoho 4-3

4-3 Kotoeko Ms5 Abiko 5-2 (~)

Things are similar but much less complicated one step further down, where Daido settled the third promotion slot in his favour by beating youngster Daishoho, and Abi became #3 in the demotion queue with his loss to Abiko. Nishikigi meanwhile saved himself in a 7-7 matchup with Chiyoo.

That leaves us with numerically demotable Tamaasuka (despite winning on Day 15), to be compared with fairly marginal candidate Abiko. I think they've shown a willingness to be a little more aggressive in this area of late (Kizenryu/Ishiura for Azumaryu comes to mind), and Abiko did pass his senshuraku "juryo test" so to speak, so I'm inclined to believe in four promotions here. Fortunately we (and Abiko) won't have to wait too long to find out the answer to that puzzle.

Thanks as always for reading along for the final 6 days of the basho! (Bye, bye...)

Edited by Asashosakari
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Kotoshogiku dispatched of Tochiozan to finish 11-4, his strongest record in over a year. (And perhaps making up a bit in fans' eyes for the awkward way he unkadobaned himself from 5-7 last basho.)

Indeed, it makes his "win" over Terunofuji in Nagoya irrelevant in terms of long-run consequences.

Edited by Gurowake

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could a Komusubi be promoted directly to Ozeki while bypassing Sekiwake entirely?

A previous post mentioned the last time this has happened. The reason it happened in the distant past and would not today is that they held less tournaments per year, and even when they held two regional basho and two Tokyo basho, they only made new banzuke for the Tokyo basho. Thus it was quite reasonable for someone to go straight from Komusubi to Ozeki at the time. These days? I suppose if Tochinoshin had a zensho yusho in Fukuoka it might be considered, but realistically they probably would just promote him to Sekiwake and ask for 10 wins.

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