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Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2015

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if Aoiyama gets his KK, and Yoshikaze goes 11-4

Impossible because they still have to meet.

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if Aoiyama gets his KK, and Yoshikaze goes 11-4

Impossible because they still have to meet.

Day 15 you think? It totally slipped my mind. I'm gonna have to root for Yoshikaze, he's on fire.

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It's not set in stone that Yoshikaze and Aoiyama will meet, but it certainly makes sense that they will. I'd be shocked if they don't meet given the implications of it at the time the bout is scheduled.

I don't think they will leave a 10-win M1w out of sanyaku, and definitely not one with 11 wins. I'm much more inclined to think they'll leave an 8-win Aoiyama out given the situation. I don't think Osunaarashi has any chance at all, and I think the banzuke committee will stick to their previous practices rather than balloon a sanyaku that already has 7 Ozeki+. But my track record is terrible at Guess the Banzuke, so feel free to ignore my opinion.

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I believe your opinion is right on track. Even at a possible 10-5, beating 2 yokozuna should be the hat tipper, as Aoiyama has only beaten a K1w so far. I wonder if they will split he fighting spirit between Yoshikaze and Ikioi??

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I believe your opinion is right on track. Even at a possible 10-5, beating 2 yokozuna should be the hat tipper, as Aoiyama has only beaten a K1w so far. I wonder if they will split he fighting spirit between Yoshikaze and Ikioi??

No need to "split" prizes. There can be (and have often been) multiple prizes which do count as a full prize.

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Amuru looks like a shoo-in for joi-jin next basho, possibly as high as M3E. I'm curious what he can do up there.

Edited by HenryK

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A defeat tomorrow for Amuru would not guarantee much of a promotion unless other results help out. I think he would be better off without too dramatic a rise.

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A defeat tomorrow for Amuru would not guarantee much of a promotion unless other results help out. I think he would be better off without too dramatic a rise.

Even if all results go against Amuru tomorrow, I don't see how he would be ranked lower than M4W.

Edited by HenryK

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Even if all results go against Amuru tomorrow, I don't see how he would be ranked lower than M4W.

Plugging Yoshikaze into sanyaku:

Aoiyama

Okinoumi

Osunaarashi

Ichinojo

Aminishiki

Endo

Toyonoshima

Ikioi

are all guys who could end up in front of an 8-7 Amuru, perhaps even 6-9 Sadanoumi would. That's 9 rikishi.

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Even if all results go against Amuru tomorrow, I don't see how he would be ranked lower than M4W.

Plugging Yoshikaze into sanyaku:

Aoiyama

Okinoumi

Osunaarashi

Ichinojo

Aminishiki

Endo

Toyonoshima

Ikioi

are all guys who could end up in front of an 8-7 Amuru, perhaps even 6-9 Sadanoumi would. That's 9 rikishi.

I forgot Ikioi. Point taken.

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Gah, browser crash while writing...

Day 14 (results, text-only results):

0-3-11 Hakuho Y1 Kakuryu 12-2

kyujo Harumafuji Y2

11-3 Terunofuji O1 Kisenosato 10-4

7-7 Goeido O2 Kotoshogiku 10-4

Somewhat unfortunate that the suspense of the yusho race is in the hands (or rather, in the legs) of injured Terunofuji...on the other hand the yusho will only be decided in the final bout of the basho, so it's not all bad, no matter how we got here.

Lower sanyaku appears to be settled a day early with both sekiwake keeping their spots, while rampaging Yoshikaze will join Tochinoshin at komusubi.

(o) 8-6 Tochiozan S Myogiryu 8-6 (o)

(o) 9-5 Tochinoshin K Okinoumi 6-8 (x)

(x) 6-8 Aoiyama M1 Yoshikaze 10-4 (o)

8-6 Osunaarashi M2

And just like that the situation in low makuuchi has relaxed considerably after Kagamio, Hidenoumi and Seiro all lost. (But Sadanofuji won!) That means we finally have enough spots to cover for the three definite promotions (Toyohibiki, Mitakeumi, Shohozan), and what remains to be seen is if Takanoiwa and Kagayaki will post another win for credible enough records to maybe force down more rikishi. However, nobody except injured Takayasu will be demotable by the numbers, no matter what happens in makuuchi tomorrow, and they might not want to drop him.

In juryo action today the yusho decision was settled in favour of Shohozan thanks to his victory over Nishikigi. I wonder how many players picked Shohozan for the yusho in Juryo Game. (Heck, I wonder how many picked him at all...)

M2 Sadanofuji 1-13 (~)

M3 Takayasu 1-3-10(~)

...

(~) 4-10 Takekaze M8

M9 Kagamio 3-11 (x)

M10

(o) 6-8 Chiyotairyu M11

M12 Chiyootori 6-8 (~)

(o) 7-7 Daieisho M13 Tokitenku 7-7 (~)

(~) 7-7 Kitataiki M14 Sokokurai 7-7 (~)

(~) 7-7 Asasekiryu M15 Hidenoumi 6-8 (x)

(x) 6-8 Seiro M16 ---

J1

J2 Takanoiwa 8-6 (1)

(o) 10-4 Toyohibiki J3 Arawashi 7-7 (x)

(x) 8-6 Jokoryu J4

(1) 9-5 Kagayaki J5 Mitakeumi 11-3 (o)

J6 Shohozan 13-1 (o)

There's now also enough room in juryo, as Kizenryu and Tamaasuka lost in the first two bouts of the day. Ishiura saved himself in the process. Abi kept his chances alive, beating Asahisho. That's given us three demotables and two more rikishi on the bubble for the final day.

(~) 3-11 Tamaasuka J8

J9

J10

J11 Abi 5-9 (1)

(o) 7-7 Ishiura J12

J13 Shotenro 3-11 (x)

(1) 7-7 Nishikigi J14 Kizenryu 6-8 (x)

Ms1 Asabenkei 5-1 (o)

(o) 6-1 Azumaryu Ms2

4-2 Daido Ms3

Ms4 Daishoho 4-2

4-3 Kotoeko Ms5 Abiko 4-2

I'm getting my wish of a head-to-head clash between Daido and Daishoho after all, since only Asabenkei and Abiko are needed for juryo duty. The winner of Daido-Daishoho will definitely be moving up, and the loser might as well - that requires Abiko to beat Abi, but even then he might get stuck behind a losing Daido. (Or perhaps behind a lucky Tamaasuka, since that scenario could see Abi fall into the three definite demotion slots instead if Tamaasuka wins.)

Somewhat unusually Asabenkei won't be facing one of the two demotion candidates, but it makes sense on further review. There are five 7-7's in juryo, with very limited scheduling options among them - Ishiura can only meet Arawashi, Chiyoo can only meet Nishikigi (the second demotion candidate), and Amakaze can't face any of them. They've decided to do those two matchups, and put Amakaze against yusho-motivated Asabenkei. Matching up Asabenkei/Abiko with Abi/Nishikigi wouldn't have allowed them to pair the 7-7's, so that's some pretty good scheduling.

Edited by Asashosakari
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It's not set in stone that Yoshikaze and Aoiyama will meet

Indeed. I felt so sure about it. Instead they made it Aoiyama - Osunaarashi (which I think is somehow OK in itself) and Yashikaze - Kyokushuho! I don't get the latter one...

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"Ozekiwake" Goeido got a "win" over Terunofuji, improving to 7-7. Will the OBSC come into play today?? Let the conspiracy theorists attack!

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I picked Shohozan for the last of my Juryo Game 8. It was close between him and Arawashi. The stats page says 2 people picked him for the Yusho, and just about a quarter of people picked him in their 8. I certainly didn't see this sort of performance coming after the last two basho.

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After a random search through the database, I found a case where a 10-5 Komusubi was promoted to Sekiwake even though both sitting Sekiwake made their KKs:

Haru 1985-K1e Kitao 10-5, S1e Hoshi 8-7, S1w Onokuni 9-6. Kitao was promoted to S1w next tournament.

Should Tochinoshin get the big double digits tonight, what are his chances of forcing a promotion? (I'm very well aware of the new Sumo Forum Meme "Getting Tochinoshined") I'm sure someone who is better at using the query than me can find more instances.

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My amateurish oppinion on this:

I can't see that happening. Although as rooting for Osunaarashi I'd thankfully take the extra Komusubi slot opening up then.

I think they generally handeled some things differently back than. So, such promotion queries should be looked at with precaution. If they resort to something like an extra Sekiwake spot, there must be a very, VERY strong case behind it, which I can't see with Tochinoshin. Kitao/ Futahaguro had also a 10-5 result in the previous basho. I'd guess they saw him on an Ozeki run and wanted a future Ozeki being promoted from Sekiwake. The extra spot than is due to the fact that they can not have demoted Hoshi with a KK result.

If Tochinoshin was on a strong Ozeki run, they might resort to something like that nowadays, but he is not, so...

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My best hunch:

Y1 E Kakuryu (y1w 12-3)

Y1W Hakuho (y1e -)

Y2E Hamurafuji (y2e -)

O1E Terunofuji (o1e 12-3)

O1W Kisenosato (o1w 11-4)

O2E Kotoshogiku (o2w 11-4)

O2W Goeido (o2e 7-8)

SE Tochiozan (se 8-7)

SW Myogiryu (sw 8-7)

KE Tochinoshin (ke 10-5)

KW Yoshikaze (m1w 11-4)

M1E Osunaarashi (m2e 8-7)

M1W Ichinojo (m4e 9-6)

M2E Ayoiama (m1e 7-8)

M2W Okinoumi (kw 6-9)

M3E Toyonoshima (m8w 10-5)

M3W Ikioi (m12 e 11-4 - banzuke luck)

M4E Aminishiki (m6e 8-7)

M4W Sadanoumi (m3e 6-9)

M5E Endo (m7e 8-7)

M5W Amuru (m7w 8-7)

M6E Kotoyuki (m10e 9-6)

M6W Kaisei (m5W 6-9) or Homarefuji (m11w 9-6)

P.S.: my expectation about Amuru entering joi-jin was indeed way off. All bouts on senshuraku went against him.

Edited by HenryK

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After a random search through the database, I found a case where a 10-5 Komusubi was promoted to Sekiwake even though both sitting Sekiwake made their KKs:

Haru 1985-K1e Kitao 10-5, S1e Hoshi 8-7, S1w Onokuni 9-6. Kitao was promoted to S1w next tournament.

Should Tochinoshin get the big double digits tonight, what are his chances of forcing a promotion? (I'm very well aware of the new Sumo Forum Meme "Getting Tochinoshined") I'm sure someone who is better at using the query than me can find more instances.

As mentioned before (maybe it was a different thread?), it's fairly clear you need 11 wins to force your way into a Sekiwake spot from Komusubi. Tochiozan did so at the beginning of 2014, but failed with 10 the year previous. And has also been mentioned, it's thought that 10+10 will also force your way in as a good Ozeki candidate.

Things were very different back in the day, and they were much more willing to open up new spots.

Edited by Gurowake
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It makes you wonder if it's a purely economical decision....

I've wondered the same thing after seeing how stingy they've been with sansho lately and the financial reports that I recall showing them losing a bit of money each year. They loosened up a little this basho; the Gino-Sho to Yoshikaze wasn't entirely necessary, although the rest of them were fairly obvious.

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It makes you wonder if it's a purely economical decision....

I've wondered the same thing after seeing how stingy they've been with sansho lately and the financial reports that I recall showing them losing a bit of money each year. They loosened up a little this basho; the Gino-Sho to Yoshikaze wasn't entirely necessary, although the rest of them were fairly obvious.

One word- fudatome. 15 days of it.

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So it looks like Mitakeumi, Shohozan, Toyohibiki, and Takanoiwa are going up for Seiro, Hidenoumi, Kagamio, and one of Asasekiryu/Takayasu. Kagayaki may join them at the expense of the other of the latter two. I have no idea which of the last three they'll take.

Edited by Gurowake

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Any chance maybe of a third Sekiwake spot opening for Tochinoshin? And if not, could he get promoted directly from K1e to Ozeki with a 12 or 13 win Kyushu basho?

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