Basho Talk - Aki 2015 +++ Spoiler alert! +++

[Morty 1,480]

I don't get the "Asashoryu set the standards for really low hinkaku" business at all. As far as I can tell, the fire he was conjuring up was mostly due to his up-yours attitude towards the elders (part of that resulting from being a ward of a less than a little unfocused oyakata). At the same time, he invoked terror in all but the toughest opponents. And THAT is the core quality of any Yokozuna in my book. Other grandmasters were treated much more kindly for their shortcomings outside of the ring.

Isn't all the other stuff you described also part of how the Kyokai defines hinkaku? That the yokozuna would bring no disgrace to his title either on or off the dohyo?

A henka is no disgrace. Never has been, never will be.

In your opinion.

And mine

[Morty 1,480]

Regarding OBSC, I haven't checked of late but isn't it something like the last 20-odd bouts going the way of the lad who needed the win (in bouts when the aite's fate is already decided)? To suddenly dismiss the idea because of one result today is idiotic. It always amazes me that so many people thing everything (not just sumo) is always above board and clean as a daisy, and that anyone suggesting otherwise is dumb or delusional. After all, the yaocho scandal itself, with all the clear (and disgusting) evidence of it was only a few years back. Before that happened anyone suggesting in public that yaocho existed got smeared as a conspiracist too by many.

Disclaimer: I don't think sumo is rife with yaocho at all and also think that the idea bouts are fixed to help the locals is outlandish, but you can't dismiss the streak that's just been broken. Rando could probably supply you with the odds of all those bouts being legit, even factoring in the extra incentive (needing a KK) for the one in need of the win. I also greatly doubt any cash or dodgy dealing is involved anymore because of the risks. However, ozeki helping each other out costs nothing to them (and is obviously mutually beneficial in the long run) as long as they're already safe record-wise and no money or words need be exchanged. And it would be a very 'Japanese' thing to do as well.

Incidentally, if anyone DOES have the numbers handy on how many such bouts have gone the way of the one who needed the win going back 20 or 30 years or so, I'd love to see them.

I do think the OBSC exists. I just don't think Kise is part of it. He has always been gachinko - during the yaocho scandal he was well known as one of the few who refused to take part and it's one of the reasons I have always liked him. If only he could get over the FITH he suffers and capitalise on the talent he clearly has to get a yusho or two...

[dingo 1,133]

But he stubbornly refuses to win the matches he needs to in order to get that promotion despite being nearly on par with the weaker two Yokozuna now.

Wow, just wow. What about the slight possibility that he just could not win those matches? Like lack of technical and mental ability to get the necessary wins. And what about the other thing - why would he win those matches? Looking at Kaio, he might consider that he can be an Oozeki for a longer period than being a Yokozuna. Financially it makes more sense as well.

IMO the only difference between Kisenosato and Kakuryu is that somehow Kakuryu managed his flash-in-the-pan jun-yusho and yusho. Otherwise there's not much difference between them performance-wise, except maybe in the aptitude to employ henka...

the Kyokai should urge Kakaryu to retire...before he disgraces the Yokozuna rank even more

Then when is Hakuho's retirement ceremony?

(this is not the only time he's done this)

My only regret is that I can give this post just one like.

Two Mattas and he touches Hakuho both times? Quite disrespectful and deserving of such a beautiful henka.

So matta against a yokozuna is disrespectful, but a yokozuna henka'ing his way to yusho is not? Kakuryu used henka not once, not twice but three times this basho including against a weaker opponent. He quite simply chickened out, out of desperation for a yusho.

[shumitto 418]

I do think the OBSC exists. I just don't think Kise is part of it.

When that baseball scandal broke out there was a semi-official list of gachinko rikishi circulating the web. They were quite few and I remember the names of Wakanosato, Homasho, Goeido and Kisenosato. I am not surprised Kisenosato tried to win today.

I think what he did is what to be expected from a gachinko Ozeki who has clinched his kachi-koshi. He goes out to win without doing anything unreasonable, it is like being Kyokutenho for one day. If the argument that they lose because they are trying to avoid an injury were true, then they would lose all their bouts after getting their 8, but that is not what happens. After losing to kakuryu there was no more Yusho for Kotoshigiku, but still he won his last three.

This basho was very good, but what an anticlimactic end. With two Yokozuna out, Kisenosato sleepwalking and Terunofuji on one leg, kakuryu need three henka in two bouts and a play-off to win it with a not specially radiant 12-3. I am one who usually complains about overdominance in any sport, but I'd rather see Hakuho cruise to a title than this, I guess.

Speaking of henka, Aminishiki somehow henka'd his way to his 8 with very sloppy sumo, which was his least impressive performance I've seen. Anyway, congratulations !

[Mongolith 51]

Yeah I sorta remember that list but could only recall Kise. Anyway glad there was no funny business and Goeido got the Kadoban he deserved. Just hoping next basho he either steps up and gets at least DD to preserve his Ozeki rank or gets a MK and loses his rank. Just painful watching him scrape to KK at every basho. Overal was pretty happy with this basho. Geeku showed that there is still some life in him, Shin finally looks like he could be the successor to Kotoo I always pinned him to be, Fuji showed some real grit in forcing a playoff, and Ichi while looking a bit lethargic managed to do pretty well. Kak imo was a worthy winner even though I did not care much for his shenanigans vs. Tochi & Kise.

Edited September 27, 2015 by Mongolith

[Randomitsuki 2,760]

Incidentally, if anyone DOES have the numbers handy on how many such bouts have gone the way of the one who needed the win going back 20 or 30 years or so, I'd love to see them.

I tried this and that query. The first query shows that over the last 30 years, 7-7 Ozeki won six out of seven bouts against rikishi already MK. The second query shows that 44 bouts (and one fusen) were fought between a 7-7 Ozeki and a KK rikishi. The outcome of these bouts is 35-9 in favor of the 7-7 rikishi. If you consider that two of the lost bouts were against rikishi who needed the win for a yusho or kettei-sen, the rate becomes even more lopsided (35-7).

So with a combined total of 41-8 the 7-7 Ozeki are heavily favored, no suprises there. Obviously, Ozeki on the bubble are more motivated than their counterparts (doh!), but I think it is in the eye of the beholder whether this extra motivation is exactly what one would expect or whether it involves some shady stuff.

By the way, if one only looks at bouts against fellow Ozeki, the winning rate is 22-4. So there is little indication that the potential freebies are particularly often only handed out by fellow Ozeki. It's more a SBSC (Sanyaku Back-Scratching Club) than an OBSC.

[Gurowake 3,886]

Goeido-Kotoshogiku this basho is also an instance of an apparent lack of OBSC, as it might have been thought that Kotoshogiku needed the win more last basho and would be giving it back to Goeido this basho when Goeido needed it more. But nope. I don't think there's any real backroom dealings going on, it's just that a 7-7 Ozeki is far more motivated to win, and the other guy tends to let him win if it doesn't cost him anything. Kisenosato though, as mentioned, doesn't slack off in these situations.

My comment about Kisenosato "stubbornly refusing to win" was not meant literally, and I'm sorry if it came off that way. It mainly meant that his losses while reaching for Yokozuna are more a product of his psychological issues, but I suppose was worded poorly. While maybe he's just not quite the caliber of rikishi that can make it to Yokozuna while the slightly better Harumafuji and Kakuryu are, part of the reason he's not quite as good is the psychological component.

It is correct that Ozeki tend to have much longer careers than Yokozuna considering how long Kaio and Chiyotaikai stayed around that would not have been tolerated for Yokozuna, but the financial rewards for hitting Yokozuna are greater and it's debatable which would lead to a better financial outcome, especially when considering time value of money.

[Harry 67]

...

By the way, if one only looks at bouts against fellow Ozeki, the winning rate is 22-4. So there is little indication that the potential freebies are particularly often only handed out by fellow Ozeki. It's more a SBSC (Sanyaku Back-Scratching Club) than an OBSC.

Well, remember you want to pay it forward for the time when you are an ozeki yourself and are needing a win. You can't really expect to get the first one at ozeki for free, can you?

That's what's great about this theory. It works if they are and it works if they aren't. Only by finding the text messages/emails/secret winks can you find out the truth.

[HenryK 38]

So matta against a yokozuna is disrespectful, but a yokozuna henka'ing his way to yusho is not?

You got it.

Edited September 27, 2015 by HenryK

[HenryK 38]

It is to some people, whether it "should" be or not. To some, part of the way of being a rikishi is about forward-moving power, and a henka is the antithesis of that. It also cheapens the spectacle somewhat when it immediately ends the match, although I admit that it's an even better spectacle when it's used and fails.

Well I guess the question is who these "some" people are and whether it "should". If sumo was only about forward-moving power, the only admissible kimarite should be kihonwaza techniques (yorikiri, oshidashi, tsukidashi etc.). But they are called "basic" techniques for a reason. What makes sumo so interesting is the mix of the basic strength techniques with nagete, kakete, hinerite. Defensive maneuvers, counters, non-anticipated moves to unbalance the opponent. Sumo isn't only about strength, it is about strength, speed, technique, anticipation, instinct, composure and smarts. And henka is a legitimate way to outsmart your opponent.

Now a Yokozuna is expected to be able to do also forward moving sumo - meaning that he shouldn't henka all the time (which of course would be self-defeating, an anticipated henka is easy to counter). But this description doesn't fit Kakuryu, who is regularly showing forward moving power: recall his victorious strength battles against Ichinojo and Terunofuji in the last few bashos, both larger and stronger men. An occasional henka against a strong Ozeki who is infamous for seeking to gain advantage by rushing the tachi-ai - nothing wrong with this.

Edited September 27, 2015 by HenryK

[shumitto 418]

That's what's great about this theory. It works if they are and it works if they aren't. Only by finding the text messages/emails/secret winks can you find out the truth.

I think they will never find a cellphone with those arrangements, because it is possibly something they don't have to talk about.

Ozeki A is 10-4 (like Geeku this time) while Ozeki B is 7-7 (like Kaio back in the sunset of his career) struggling with injuries. They both are know to play the game. Rikishi A knows what to do without having been told to.

True, we can never know for sure when it happened or not, only they do. But the same is true for sentences "broke in with the intent to kill" and other things we hear from judges. Only the person himself knows what he or she is up to, but it is possible to acertain some kind of material truth based on evidences. That's what we do here.

Thinking negatively here, just for the sake of argument. It would be strange if friends - who are not gachinko - wouldn't help each other in such situations. Why wouldn't you help a fellow Ozeki when there is so little to lose and much more to win ?

[Fukurou 534]

When that baseball scandal broke out there was a semi-official list of gachinko rikishi circulating the web. They were quite few and I remember the names of Wakanosato, Homasho, Goeido and Kisenosato. I am not surprised Kisenosato tried to win today.

Just to note, Juryo winner Shohozan was suspended 2 basho as a result of the gambling scandal.

[HenryK 38]

The format of sumo invites collusion on senshuraku. I wouldn't call this corruption, it is just part of the game. Corruption would be when Ozeki promotions etc. are plotted. I have a suspicion that things like these may be happening too, but of course it's much harder to get a handle on them.

[Kintamayama 44,275]

Regarding OBSC, I haven't checked of late but isn't it something like the last 20-odd bouts going the way of the lad who needed the win (in bouts when the aite's fate is already decided)? To suddenly dismiss the idea because of one result today is idiotic. It always amazes me that so many people thing everything (not just sumo) is always above board and clean as a daisy, and that anyone suggesting otherwise is dumb or delusional. After all, the yaocho scandal itself, with all the clear (and disgusting) evidence of it, was only a few years back. Before that happened anyone suggesting in public that yaocho existed got smeared as a conspiracist too by many.

Therein lies the problem-that disgusting yaocho scandal involved rikishi who really had something to lose, in that a drop from Juryo to Makushita is a heaven and hell difference. Of course yaocho exists, but not in the form it came to light-it exists in silent agreement, when it does. Since that University 7-7 guys always win theory paper came to light, things have changed considerably. Check out how many 7-7 guys won lately, or even today. But I wouldn't go overboard talking sumotalk. So many blatantly wrong theories it made my head turn..

[dingo 1,133]

So matta against a yokozuna is disrespectful, but a yokozuna henka'ing his way to yusho is not?

You got it.

Would you care to explain why you think so?

It is to some people, whether it "should" be or not. To some, part of the way of being a rikishi is about forward-moving power, and a henka is the antithesis of that. It also cheapens the spectacle somewhat when it immediately ends the match, although I admit that it's an even better spectacle when it's used and fails.

Well I guess the question is who these "some" people are and whether it "should". If sumo was only about forward-moving power, the only admissible kimarite should be kihonwaza techniques (yorikiri, oshidashi, tsukidashi etc.). But they are called "basic" techniques for a reason. What makes sumo so interesting is the mix of the basic strength techniques with nagete, kakete, hinerite. Defensive maneuvers, counters, non-anticipated moves to unbalance the opponent. Sumo isn't only about strength, it is about strength, speed, technique, anticipation, instinct, composure and smarts. And henka is a legitimate way to outsmart your opponent.

Now a Yokozuna is expected to be able to do also forward moving sumo - meaning that he shouldn't henka all the time (which of course would be self-defeating, an anticipated henka is easy to counter). But this description doesn't fit Kakuryu, who is regularly showing forward moving power: recall his victorious strength battles against Ichinojo and Terunofuji in the last few bashos, both larger and stronger men. An occasional henka against a strong Ozeki who is infamous for seeking to gain advantage by rushing the tachi-ai - nothing wrong with this.

On the other hand, Kakuryu also has a bad back-pedalling habit, one that the japanese commentators often mention and Kakuryu himself (at least in post-bout comments) recognizes. Quite a few of his losses have actually come because he goes for a pulldown, fails and is escorted out. This is part of what erodes his confidence time to time and I think the henka against Tochiozan was purely a product of that -- he didn't feel confident enough to face him straight so he just went for a henka.

[Kintamayama 44,275]

The format of sumo invites collusion on senshuraku. I wouldn't call this corruption, it is just part of the game. Corruption would be when Ozeki promotions etc. are plotted. I have a suspicion that things like these may be happening too, but of course it's much harder to get a handle on them.

Collusion on senshuraku? Old school. Today's numbers:

A 7-7 Ozeki lost. To another Ozeki too..

7-7 Kitataiki-lost to an already makekoshi and injured Tokushouryuu

7-7 Soukourai-won.

7-7 Endou won against another 7-7 rikishi

7-7 Daieishou lost to already 10 bout loser Takekaze.

7-7 Aminishiki won

So they were 3-4 . It invites collusion but lately it is not happening. I know because being old school, I always choose the 7-7 guys to win in all games on senshuraku and repeatedly fall flat on my face.

Edited September 27, 2015 by Kintamayama

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

Congrats to Terunofuji for forcing that playoff. After that match, you could see the "Oh S***" look on the face of Kakuryu. IMHO, he has absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. Even with a visible injury, he was able to give an "equivalent performance" and beat some of the odds.

Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku were looking like Ozeki's this tournament, kudos to both of them.

Ozekiwake Goeido is kadoban for the 2nd time.

Chokiozan and Myogiru just held on to their spots

Kanto-sho for Tochinoshin! Gino-sho/Shukun-sho for Yoshikaze! 33 wins in 3 tournaments.

Ichinojo woke up for a 9-6, lets go for double digits in November, u can do it!!!!

Kanto-sho for Ikioi, well done.

I know I'll catch heat for saying this, but Kakuryu didn't WIN the basho, Terunofuji LOST the basho. IMHO.

Can't wait till November.

[Akinomaki 39,585]

Kitanoumi calls the 12 by Terunofuji a result too light for a yokozuna run, esp. with Hakuho etc. absent: Even with a zensho yusho next basho "there would be some critics" - thus he doesn't really say it wouldn't happen.

Isegahama head shimpan, who would have to initiate the promotion, calls the yokozuna run open though, strictly according to the rule of yusho or equivalent good result (=same number of wins), which is YDC recommendation.

http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2015/09/27/kiji/K20150927011217350.html

Edited September 27, 2015 by Akinomaki

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

IMO the only difference between Kisenosato and Kakuryu is that somehow Kakuryu managed his flash-in-the-pan jun-yusho and yusho. Otherwise there's not much difference between them performance-wise, except maybe in the aptitude to employ henka...

I guess I could state the same statement about two arbitrary rikishi in the way you do it - without any arguments to support it, it's rather weak though. Let's look at the post-yokozuna-promotion scores (since including the promotion is a difference you concede already). Kakuryu is 77-28 as a yokozuna (73.3%) while Kisenosato is 94-41 in the same time (69.6%). Kakuryu got criticised in that time, what can we say about Kisenosato then? Not many good things probably...

Speaking of probability, Kakuryu is not significantly better than Kisenosato actually (90% confidence interval of his win% is from 65% to 80%, with Kisenosato's ranging from 62% to 76%), and going by the eye test I agree that Kisenosato isn't looking exactly worse. But Kakuryu is much better in the big point situations (and I don't mean applying a henka here).

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

Kitanoumi calls the 12 by Terunofuji a result too light for a yokozuna run, esp. with Hakuho etc. absent: Even with a zensho yusho next basho "there would be some critics" - thus he doesn't really say it wouldn't happen.

Isegahama head shimpan, who would have to initiate the promotion, calls the yokozuna run open though, strictly according to the rule of yusho or equivalent good result (=same number of wins), which is YDC recommendation.

http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2015/09/27/kiji/K20150927011217350.html

It sounds like a very vague and polite way of saying "Bring it home next basho, and things will happen from there" I for one would think that if he can get a 13-2 yusho in November, that would be enough. I know its been quite a while since someone was promoted on the 3 tournament system, which I believe is 1 tournament and at least 38 wins? I'm thinking Onokuni was the last one promoted under those circumstances.

In any case, I do believe this is the start of his run. thoughts???

[Kintamayama 44,275]

Isegahama head shimpan, who would have to initiate the promotion, calls the yokozuna run open though, strictly according to the rule of yusho or equivalent good result (=same number of wins), which is YDC recommendation.

http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2015/09/27/kiji/K20150927011217350.html

And of course, nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that he is Terunofuji's Oyakata...

[dingo 1,133]

IMO the only difference between Kisenosato and Kakuryu is that somehow Kakuryu managed his flash-in-the-pan jun-yusho and yusho. Otherwise there's not much difference between them performance-wise, except maybe in the aptitude to employ henka...

I guess I could state the same statement about two arbitrary rikishi in the way you do it - without any arguments to support it, it's rather weak though. Let's look at the post-yokozuna-promotion scores (since including the promotion is a difference you concede already). Kakuryu is 77-28 as a yokozuna (73.3%) while Kisenosato is 94-41 in the same time (69.6%). Kakuryu got criticised in that time, what can we say about Kisenosato then? Not many good things probably...

Speaking of probability, Kakuryu is not significantly better than Kisenosato actually (90% confidence interval of his win% is from 65% to 80%, with Kisenosato's ranging from 62% to 76%), and going by the eye test I agree that Kisenosato isn't looking exactly worse. But Kakuryu is much better in the big point situations (and I don't mean applying a henka here).

Thanks for the in-depth analysis. I wasn't exactly taking two arbitrary rikishi though, but two rikishi at the top of their game -- one of which managed to take the next step, the other didn't. I wouldn't obviously have compared Kakuryu and Shohozan for example. My point, which very well came out in your analysis, was that Kakuryu has basically been performing at ozeki level (provided that ozeki is Kisenosato, not Goeido obviously).

[dingo 1,133]

Kitanoumi calls the 12 by Terunofuji a result too light for a yokozuna run, esp. with Hakuho etc. absent: Even with a zensho yusho next basho "there would be some critics" - thus he doesn't really say it wouldn't happen.

Isegahama head shimpan, who would have to initiate the promotion, calls the yokozuna run open though, strictly according to the rule of yusho or equivalent good result (=same number of wins), which is YDC recommendation.

http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2015/09/27/kiji/K20150927011217350.html

It sounds like a very vague and polite way of saying "Bring it home next basho, and things will happen from there" I for one would think that if he can get a 13-2 yusho in November, that would be enough. I know its been quite a while since someone was promoted on the 3 tournament system, which I believe is 1 tournament and at least 38 wins? I'm thinking Onokuni was the last one promoted under those circumstances.

In any case, I do believe this is the start of his run. thoughts???

I think 12-3 and 13-2 would be a very weak case for yokozuna promotion and it would only happen if there was a decent amount of belief in Terunofuji's future performances included. But he's young and has plenty of time to rack up two back-to-back yushos.

[Akinomaki 39,585]

I wonder why the ring side judges after the last bout/ketteisen stay in their places till the Prime Minister's Cup is handed over and leave not until just before the yusho interview.

[HenryK 38]

IMO the only difference between Kisenosato and Kakuryu is that somehow Kakuryu managed his flash-in-the-pan jun-yusho and yusho. Otherwise there's not much difference between them performance-wise, except maybe in the aptitude to employ henka...

I guess I could state the same statement about two arbitrary rikishi in the way you do it - without any arguments to support it, it's rather weak though. Let's look at the post-yokozuna-promotion scores (since including the promotion is a difference you concede already). Kakuryu is 77-28 as a yokozuna (73.3%) while Kisenosato is 94-41 in the same time (69.6%). Kakuryu got criticised in that time, what can we say about Kisenosato then? Not many good things probably...

Speaking of probability, Kakuryu is not significantly better than Kisenosato actually (90% confidence interval of his win% is from 65% to 80%, with Kisenosato's ranging from 62% to 76%), and going by the eye test I agree that Kisenosato isn't looking exactly worse. But Kakuryu is much better in the big point situations (and I don't mean applying a henka here).

Thanks for the in-depth analysis. I wasn't exactly taking two arbitrary rikishi though, but two rikishi at the top of their game -- one of which managed to take the next step, the other didn't. I wouldn't obviously have compared Kakuryu and Shohozan for example. My point, which very well came out in your analysis, was that Kakuryu has basically been performing at ozeki level (provided that ozeki is Kisenosato, not Goeido obviously).

The analysis here http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=34310&page=1 suggests otherwise. Kakuryu is a fine Yokozuna, at least by historical Yokozuna standards.

Edited September 27, 2015 by HenryK