Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2015

[Gurowake 4,154]

I don't understand why they didn't do Kyokutaisei vs. Kotoeko on Day 13 instead of whenever else they're doing it. Surely knowing the outcome of that match would let them know *something* about what they need to do. Even if it ends up not mattering, it still doesn't make sense to put off a match that might in some way influence your later choices when there's no reason to. It just seems silly to put Kizenryu up into Juryo against someone actually facing demotion if Kyokutaisei wins.

Might they instead do Kyokutaisei vs. a 4-2 in the Juryo race and Kotoeko vs. some other 4-2 not in the Juryo race?

[Asashosakari 20,301]

I don't understand why they didn't do Kyokutaisei vs. Kotoeko on Day 13 instead of whenever else they're doing it. Surely knowing the outcome of that match would let them know *something* about what they need to do. Even if it ends up not mattering, it still doesn't make sense to put off a match that might in some way influence your later choices when there's no reason to. It just seems silly to put Kizenryu up into Juryo against someone actually facing demotion if Kyokutaisei wins.

I don't think it matters that much. If Kyokutaisei loses, he's no longer a must-promote guy with 5 wins at Ms4, and if he wins he pushes Kizenryu down a notch. Sure, this could end up in a scenario where Kizenryu beating a juryo guy opens up a slot for Kyokutaisei instead of himself, but I don't think they're too concerned about that. The paradigm seems to be that the top makushita-ranked rikishi should be desperate to win every bout even if it doesn't immediately benefit them. (Keep in mind that 5-2 vs 4-3 for Kizenryu could be the difference between being ranked Ms1e or Ms3e next time, depending on how Sakigake and Asabenkei finish and where the juryo demotees slot in, so it could have major ramifications for how many bouts he needs to win then.)

It's also really hard to project how "necessary" the rikishi held back for exchange bouts will be - tomorrow we could be looking at 4 juryo rikishi on the bubble, or we could have zero. I doubt they're too worried about ending up with a sub-optimal solution.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Hakuyobaku 33]

Interestingly, that's the second article recently (the other one was at Sports Hochi) which appears to have wrong statistical information about Kyokutenho's total number of dohyo appearances. I'm inclined to believe the Sumo DB which had him at 1855 before Nagoya, the press claims 1856. The difference is probably this early-career fusenpai.

Now he's old but not THAT old..

[Asashosakari 20,301]

Day 13 (results, text-only results):

12-1 Hakuho Y1 Harumafuji 1-1-11

11-2 Kakuryu Y2

10-3 Kisenosato O1 Goeido 8-5

O2 Terunofuji 10-3

Quick and decisive yorikiri in both yokozuna bouts today, but only one of them was on the winning side, so it's that familiar sight again: Hakuho is the sole leader. Now it's up to Kisenosato to maybe spoil some more tomorrow against the dai-yokozuna. Meanwhile Kotoshogiku survived as ozeki for another day, beating Kaisei in his trademark style. Terunofuji reached double digits in his ozeki debut basho, and so did his opponent Ichinojo, though on the other side of the W-L ledger.

In sanyaku contender action Tochinoshin eliminated Takayasu, and Tochiozan ended Sadanoumi's challenge. Kaisei's loss also saw him drop out of the race, so now we're down to "only" 6 candidates on the maegashira side. The quartet ranked at M5 and M8 are keeping up the pressure, with only Tokushoryu losing today.

6-7 Kotoshogiku O2

10-3 Tochiozan S Ichinojo 3-10 (x)

(x) 2-11 Takarafuji K Myogiryu 7-6

6-7 Tochinoshin M1 Sadanoumi 5-8 (x)

(x) 5-8 Takayasu M2 Aoiyama 7-6

M3 Kaisei 5-8 (x)

M4

9-4 Okinoumi M5 Tokushoryu 7-6

M6

M7

10-3 Yoshikaze M8 Osunaarashi 9-4

Some interesting matchups again tomorrow: Myogiryu and Aoiyama are having a kachikoshi playoff, while a bout between Tokushoryu and Osunaarashi will see one of them exit the race. Kotoshogiku's career is on the line against Ichinojo as expected. (Which version of the youngster will be showing up?)

Satoyama and Takanoiwa ran out of rope after all, losing to Kagamio and Tamawashi today. They're normally demotable now, but we've seen that the current banzuke committee has no qualms with keeping 7-8's at the same rank, and there are still quite a few rikishi who could finish with comparatively worse records. Much the same goes for Kyokutenho who fell to 3-10 but can still hope a little bit if he can close out the basho with two wins. Our last bubble rikishi Toyohibiki finally won one again after 8 straight losses and can still save himself without depending on banzuke luck.

Seiro is now safe, and Kitataiki and Hidenoumi also helped themselves with wins on Day 13.

Over in juryo Asasekiryu is making a surprising push for further makuuchi action after more than two years in the second division, beating Sokokurai today. Both should already have strong enough records to force down the borderline demotable maegashira, but with this committee, who knows... Daieisho blasted out yusho leader Mitakeumi and now needs only one more win for his makuuchi debut. (I don't feel he's ready, but that's irrelevant of course.) Fujiazuma and Chiyomaru are making late runs at returning to makuuchi, winning 5 of the last 6 and 4 of the last 5, respectively.

M9 Homarefuji 4-9 (1)

(1) 4-9 Kitataiki M10

M11 Kyokutenho 3-10 (~)

M12

(1) 5-8 Hidenoumi M13

(2) 5-8 Toyohibiki M14

(o) 7-6 Seiro M15 Satoyama 5-8 (~)

(~) 5-8 Takanoiwa M16 ---

(o) 8-5 Chiyootori J1 Daieisho 7-6 (1)

(1) 8-5 Sokokurai J2

(~) 6-7 Jokoryu J3

(1) 9-4 Asasekiryu J4

(2) 8-5 Fujiazuma J5 Chiyomaru 8-5 (2)

(~) 8-5 Kitaharima J6

...

J12 Mitakeumi 10-3 (x)

Wakanosato was victorious for the first time in five days, so we still can't declare anybody demoted, but due to losses by Daido and Takaryu we do now have three rikishi on the bubble. Shotenro and Nishikigi still need one more win as well, while Tamaasuka and Tokushinho ensured their continued presence in juryo.

J9 Nishikigi 4-9 (1)

(o) 6-7 Tamaasuka J10

(2) 4-9 Daido J11 Wakanosato 4-9 (2)

J12

(1) 6-7 Shotenro J13 Takaryu 5-8 (2)

J14 Tokushinho 8-5 (o)

4-2 Shodai Ms1

7-0 Daishomaru Ms2

3-3 Sakigake Ms3 Kizenryu 4-2

5-1 Kyokutaisei Ms4 Dewahayate 4-3

4-2 Asabenkei Ms5 Azumaryu 3-3

Among the five candidates for demotion the Nishikigi-Shotenro matchup is still possible, and I feel they're missing a trick by not putting that on Day 14, which would have engineered another bubble rikishi for the final day. Though perhaps it doesn't matter - Daido/Wakanosato/Takaryu are either getting demoted tomorrow, or they can serve as fodder for exchange bouts on Day 15, so there are probably enough options as is. In any case there will be only two exchange matchups (with Sakigake and Kizenryu) as none were scheduled for tomorrow and Shodai-Asabenkei is a makushita bout after all.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,301]

For completeness, yesterday's yesterday's lower division yusho results (and links to video):

Ms2e Daishomaru (Oitekaze) 7-0

Ms50w Hitenryu (Tatsunami) 6-1

---

Sd20w Hishofuji (Azumazeki) 7-0

Sd44w Wakarikido (Nishonoseki) 6-1

Sd90w Omoto (Irumagawa) 6-1

---

Jd10e Ura (Kise) 7-0

Jd36e Daiki (Hakkaku) 7-0

Jd71e Saionji (Shikihide) 6-1

---

Jd19w Hamamachi (Kokonoe) 7-0

Ura and Daiki will play off tomorrow.

Edited July 25, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,301]

Day 14 (results, text-only results, Kintamayama's digest):

13-1 Hakuho Y1 Harumafuji 1-1-12

12-2 Kakuryu Y2

10-4 Kisenosato O1 Goeido 8-6

O2 Terunofuji 11-3

The yusho is officially between the two active yokozuna, although Kakuryu had to work for it a lot harder against Goeido than did Hakuho against Kisenosato. Terunofuji beat a surprisingly challenging Takekaze and can still finish with the jun-yusho, although I would guess a 12-3 two wins behind the champion won't prompt any tsunatori talk for September.

Kotoshogiku keeps hanging in there, beating disappointing Ichinojo, and stopping short of all the usual discussions I'll just say, let's see what tomorrow has in store. Myogiryu dropped to 7-7 against Aoiyama and suddenly all the sanyaku permutations from one open slot to three are in play again.

And it's a wide-open race, too. Tochinoshin looks to be in the driver's seat even at 7-7, especially with Kyokutenho as tomorrow's opponent, but additional slots could be anyone's.

7-7 Kotoshogiku O2

10-4 Tochiozan S Ichinojo 3-11 (x)

(x) 3-11 Takarafuji K Myogiryu 7-7

7-7 Tochinoshin M1

M2 Aoiyama 8-6

M3

M4

10-4 Okinoumi M5 Tokushoryu 7-7 (x)

M6

M7

11-3 Yoshikaze M8 Osunaarashi 10-4

Osunaarashi should be out of it as he's behind Okinoumi and Yoshikaze, and really should be behind Aoiyama even with 11 wins, but you know my new mantra: "With this banzuke committee, who knows?" Appropriately enough they've actually scheduled these two against each other for tomorrow, perhaps making it even more likely that Osunaarashi might be given the advantage on the next banzuke if he wins.

They also lucked into a 7-7 collider between Myogiryu and Tokushoryu somehow... The matches of the other contenders: Yoshikaze gets arguably the toughest gig against Tochiozan, and Okinoumi faces Kagamio.

As usual I'm leading the next section with Satoyama and Takanoiwa who had identical results for the 6th day in a row, and today it meant another loss, sealing their demotions back to juryo. Kyokutenho lost as well and at 11 defeats there's no way they can keep him in makuuchi now. Toyohibiki and Kitataiki had a demotion playoff of sorts, won by the latter - Toyohibiki is now also demotable by the numbers, but unlike the other three he might harbour some small hopes of staying. Hidenoumi rounds out the list of those who may be headed to juryo, losing to Ikioi today (yes, it's possible). Kitataiki has escaped, however, and so has Homarefuji by the time-honoured method of "when in need, henka (badly)".

After a few days where it didn't look like we would have all that many promotion contenders, it's suddenly a very crowded space again, even if there aren't many really eye-popping records. Daieisho won to score his kachikoshi, and normally being ranked at J1 should mean a sizable advantage over other contenders, but, see mantra above: Purely by the numbers he's not guaranteed a slot yet as Chiyootori, Sokokurai, Asasekiryu and Fujiazuma might all finish ahead of him, and we're only at 4 slots available.

I'm actually having to make a last-minute addition to the listing here: Arawashi was already out of the numbers game after Day 9 so I never included him as a candidate, but he has somehow rattled off 5 straight wins since then and just might grab a slot if Hidenoumi makes it five demotions. However, for both him and Jokoryu it would depend on how valuable their records are considered compared to Fujiazuma; it could come down to J3e 8-7 / J5e 9-6 / J7e 10-5, and that's pretty much unguessable. Fujiazuma winning to finish 10-5 would eliminate both of them though, as they would be behind five other contenders.

M9 Homarefuji 5-9 (o)

(o) 5-9 Kitataiki M10

M11 Kyokutenho 3-11 (x)

M12

(1) 5-9 Hidenoumi M13

(~) 5-9 Toyohibiki M14

M15 Satoyama 5-9 (x)

(x) 5-9 Takanoiwa M16 ---

(o) 8-6 Chiyootori J1 Daieisho 8-6 (?)

(1) 8-6 Sokokurai J2

(~) 6-7 Jokoryu J3

(1) 9-5 Asasekiryu J4

(1) 9-5 Fujiazuma J5 Chiyomaru 8-6 (x)

(x) 8-6 Kitaharima J6

(~) 9-5 Arawashi J7

I do think that there are at least four credible promotions already (the 8-6 trio on top and Asasekiryu), so Toyohibiki's main chance is in moving ahead of Hidenoumi and hoping that Fujiazuma doesn't win. The only head-to-head matchup here will be between Daieisho and Arawashi.

As mentioned in the catch-all thread it was a spectacularly disastrous day if your name was on the list of rikishi in danger of dropping to makushita, as all five candidates lost. That means Daido, Wakanosato and Takaryu are all toast now, with Nishikigi and Shotenro on the bubble for tomorrow. With slots finally available it's time to declare Daishomaru and Shodai officially promoted, while slot #3 isn't clear to assign yet - however, Kyokutaisei will be getting promoted, either as #3 or #4.

J9 Nishikigi 4-10 (1)

J10

(x) 4-10 Daido J11 Wakanosato 4-10 (x)

J12

(1) 6-8 Shotenro J13 Takaryu 5-9 (x)

J14

(o) 5-2 Shodai Ms1

(o) 7-0 Daishomaru Ms2

3-3 Sakigake Ms3 Kizenryu 4-2

(o) 5-1 Kyokutaisei Ms4 Dewahayate 4-3

4-3 Asabenkei Ms5 Azumaryu 4-3

The exchange bouts ended up writing themselves - we have two bubble juryo, two makushita contenders, and one schedule version isn't possible (Sakigake and Shotenro already met on Day 10), so it's Nishikigi-Sakigake and Shotenro-Kizenryu. Kizenryu could push Kyokutaisei out of the 3rd position in the queue, but he would be opening up another slot at the same time, so Kyokutaisei is already safe.

The possible outcomes here are all extremely straight-forward: Whoever wins, goes to/stays in juryo. The only potential complication lies with Kotoshogiku and Kyokutenho and their possible retirements. This could maaaybe even benefit the likes of Wakanosato, but I suspect the banzuke committee is adventurous enough these days that they would rather do (an) extra promotion(s).

Edited July 25, 2015 by Asashosakari

[lackmaker 458]

Are the rankings of the ozeki only ever changed due to their performance at the previous tournament?

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

Are the rankings of the ozeki only ever changed due to their performance at the previous tournament?

Yes, the yokozuna and the ozeki are ranked by who had the best records in the previous basho. That being said, they'll look like this:

Y1E - Hakuho (14-1)

Y1W - Kakuryu (12-3)

Y2E - Harumafuji (1-1-13)

O1E - Terunofuji (11-4)

O1W - Kisenosato (10-5)

O2E - Goeido (9-6)

O2W - Kotoshogiku (8-7)

[Asashosakari 20,301]

Day 15 (results, text-only results, Kintamayama's digest):

14-1 Hakuho Y1 Harumafuji 1-1-13

12-3 Kakuryu Y2

10-5 Kisenosato O1 Goeido 9-6

8-7 Kotoshogiku O2 Terunofuji 11-4

A two-win gap between winner and runners-up doesn't do the tournament justice, but that's what we got in the end after Hakuho beat his fellow yokozuna in a hard-fought bout. Kisenosato failed to protect the top ozeki slot, losing to Goeido who's tasted victory #9 as ozeki for the first time. Next target: the drive for ten-five. Kotoshogiku dragged himself across the finish line after all and will grace the second-highest rank for at least two more tournaments. Terunofuji finishes his debut basho with a fine 11-4 record, and he'll undoubtedly maintain his current air as the #1 yokozuna prospect among the ozeki.

Two sanyaku slots will be maintained by incumbents after all, thanks to Myogiryu surviving a henka by Tokushoryu to finish 8-7. He'll be joining shukun-sho-winning Tochiozan at sekiwake, the third time in a row that he's switching between the two junior titled ranks. The two next komusubi are surprisingly easy to determine after we spent most of the basho with a really messy situation: It'll be Tochinoshin who KK'ed against Kyokutenho today and will make a well-deserved return to sanyaku after exactly three years, and Okinoumi who's had a nice bounceback since getting injured in his sekiwake debut four months ago. A minor point of contention might be who's going to get the East slot - my guess is that it'll be Okinoumi.

Yoshikaze arguably had his strongest non-joijin tournament ever but ended up falling just short, although the kanto-sho may tide him over a bit. Osunaarashi beat Aoiyama to finish up a surprisingly strong basho as well. These three will fill the top three maegashira slots in some combination. (More than that though, I'm looking forward to the spectacle of Sadanofuji in the joi...)

10-5 Tochiozan S Ichinojo 4-11 (x)

(x) 4-11 Takarafuji K Myogiryu 8-7

(o) 8-7 Tochinoshin M1

M2 Aoiyama 8-7

M3

M4

(o) 11-4 Okinoumi M5

M6

M7

12-3 Yoshikaze M8 Osunaarashi 11-4

Toyohibiki's fate was decided before he even stepped on the dohyo himself as all five top promotion contenders in juryo were victorious today, leaving no doubt that Toyohibiki cannot stay. He ended up losing to Toyonoshima for good measure, so it didn't matter anyway. On the other hand we witnessed Hidenoumi beating Kyokushuho, putting himself in mathematical safety.

And that's going to be bad news for somebody: Four exchanges are assured with Kyokutenho/Toyohibiki/Satoyama/Takanoiwa going down and Chiyootori/Daieisho/Sokokurai/Asasekiryu going up, while three rikishi are vying for two more spots. Fujiazuma has the numbers in hand for a promotion, while Hidenoumi and (unexpectedly from 7-6) Seiro posted small MKs that should normally see them barely hang on. I would think the incumbents, who were both in their top division debut, will be spared here and receive a second opportunity to prove themselves, but Fujiazuma forcing one of them down wouldn't be the strangest decision ever. (The wacky-but-it-makes-sense-somehow solution would be to drop both and promote a very lucky Chiyomaru along with Fujiazuma, but 9 wins from J5w seems a bit too little for that.)

M11 Kyokutenho 3-12 (x)

M12

(?) 6-9 Hidenoumi M13

(x) 5-10 Toyohibiki M14

(?) 7-8 Seiro M15 Satoyama 5-10 (x)

(x) 6-9 Takanoiwa M16 ---

(o) 9-6 Chiyootori J1 Daieisho 9-6 (o)

(o) 9-6 Sokokurai J2

(x) 7-8 Jokoryu J3

(o) 10-5 Asasekiryu J4

(?) 10-5 Fujiazuma J5

J6

(x) 9-6 Arawashi J7

Both makushita visitors to juryo blew their chances on senshuraku against Nishikigi and Shotenro, which was terrible news for Sakigake (he finishes 3-4), but probably just a small blip for Kizenryu who failed to create his own luck but is likely to inherit Kyokutenho's sekitori slot (assuming he announces his intai by Wednesday). Daido, Wakanosato and Takaryu all lost their last bout of the basho and are definitely not taking over that slot.

J9 Nishikigi 5-10 (o)

J10

(x) 4-11 Daido J11 Wakanosato 4-11 (x)

J12

(o) 7-8 Shotenro J13 Takaryu 5-10 (x)

J14

(o) 5-2 Shodai Ms1

(o) 7-0 Daishomaru Ms2

(x) 3-4 Sakigake Ms3 Kizenryu 4-3 (?)

(o) 5-2 Kyokutaisei Ms4 Dewahayate 4-3

4-3 Asabenkei Ms5 Azumaryu 4-3

Edited July 26, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Kotogouryuu 143]

Tochiozan ja Myogiryu as sekiwake. That shows how hard sumo is at the top level. The same guys keep appearing in sanyaku, with most of their rivals failing to ever get there.

[Asojima 2,874]

Tochiozan ja Myogiryu as sekiwake. That shows how hard sumo is at the top level. The same guys keep appearing in sanyaku, with most of their rivals failing to ever get there.

Anyone who spends more that 2 consecutive years in Makuuchi will probably hit komusubi at least once. Anyone who hits komusubi more that twice will probably make it to sekiwake at least once. The vast majority of these will then drop back down to mid to upper maegashira.

[Sumozumo 240]

Tochiozan ja Myogiryu as sekiwake. That shows how hard sumo is at the top level. The same guys keep appearing in sanyaku, with most of their rivals failing to ever get there.

Anyone who spends more that 2 consecutive years in Makuuchi will probably hit komusubi at least once. Anyone who hits komusubi more that twice will probably make it to sekiwake at least once. The vast majority of these will then drop back down to mid to upper maegashira.

I'm not so sure about consecutive years but it seems like those with more than 27~29 basho in makuuchi make it to sanyaku, and those with less are more likely to not make it. A lot of rikishi below this mark that did make it to sanyaku seemed to have been helped considerably by the 2011 scandal.

The worst offender here is Jumonji, who managed to stay in Makuuchi from 2002.11 to 2006.9 consecutively while never ranking higher than M6, which seems like a skill within itself.

The current top active guy is Toyohibiki who from 2011.01 until now stayed in Makuuchi without ever going higher than M2. I don't know who is the next guy after him. (it might be Kaisei)

Edited July 26, 2015 by Sumozumo

[HenryK 38]

My best hunch:

Y1E Hakuho (y1e 14-1)

Y1W Kakuryu (y2e 12-3)

Y2E Harumafuji (y1w 1-1-13)

O1E Terunofuji (o2w 11-4)

O1W Kisenosato (o1e 10-5)

O2E Goeido (o1w 9-6)

O2W Kotoshogiku (o2e 8-7)

SE Tochiozan (se 10-5)

SW Myogiryu (kw 8-7)

KE Okinoumi (m5e 11-4)

KW Tochinoshin (m1e 8-7)

M1E Yoshikaze (m8e 12-3)

M1W Aoiyama (m2w 8-7)

M2E Osunaarashi (m8w 11-4 - new career high)

M2W Sadanofuji (m9e 10-5 - new career high)

M3E Sadanoumi (m1w 6-9)

M3W Takayasu (m2e 6-9)

M4E Tamawashi (m7e 8-7 - banzuke luck)

M4W Ichinojo (sw 4-11)

M5E Kaisei (m3w 6-9)

M5W Takarafuji (ke 4-11)

M6E Aminishiki (m4e 6-9)

M6W Endo (m12e 10-5)

Edited July 26, 2015 by HenryK

[Gurowake 4,154]

I concur that it will be "interesting" to see Sadanofuji in the joi. But of course two basho ago I expected Sadanoumi to be back in the double digits by now....

[Gurowake 4,154]

Juryo speculation, given Kyokutenho's intai announcement. Fujiazuma could just as easily be one of Seiro or Hidenoumi; I wouldn't be too surprised if Fujiazuma ended up on my GTB entry after further consideration. There's plenty of rikishi available to fill the top few ranks this time, so I don't expect Mitakeumi to get as big of a promotion as Ichinojo did on his debut Yusho with the same record.

Fujiazuma(10-5 J5e)	J1	Takanoiwa(6-9 M16e)
Toyohibiki(5-10 M14e)	J2	Chiyomaru(9-6 J5w)
Kitaharima(9-6 J6e)	J3	Satoyama(5-10 M15w)
Arawashi(9-6 J7e)	J4	Jokoryu(7-8 J3e)
Mitakeumi(11-4 J12w)	J5	Kagayaki(6-9 J2w)
Asahisho(6-9 J3w)	J6	Shohozan(6-9 J4w)
Tenkaiho(7-8 J6w)	J7	Wakanoshima(9-6 J12e)
Tamaasuka(8-7 J10e)	J8	Onosho(7-8 J8e)
Amakaze(6-9 J7w)	J9	Tokushinho(9-6 J14w)
Daishomaru(7-0 Ms2e)	J10	Chiyoo(6-9 J8w)
Abi(7-8 J10w)	J11	Ishiura(6-9 J9e)
Shodai(5-2 Ms1e)	J12	Akiseyama(8-7 J14e)
Nishikigi(5-10 J9w)	J13	Shotenro(7-8 J13e)
Kyokutaisei(5-2 Ms4e)	J14	Kizenryu(4-3 Ms3w)

[dingo 1,487]

Tochiozan ja Myogiryu as sekiwake. That shows how hard sumo is at the top level. The same guys keep appearing in sanyaku, with most of their rivals failing to ever get there.

Anyone who spends more that 2 consecutive years in Makuuchi will probably hit komusubi at least once. Anyone who hits komusubi more that twice will probably make it to sekiwake at least once. The vast majority of these will then drop back down to mid to upper maegashira.

I'm not so sure about consecutive years but it seems like those with more than 27~29 basho in makuuchi make it to sanyaku, and those with less are more likely to not make it. A lot of rikishi below this mark that did make it to sanyaku seemed to have been helped considerably by the 2011 scandal.

The worst offender here is Jumonji, who managed to stay in Makuuchi from 2002.11 to 2006.9 consecutively while never ranking higher than M6, which seems like a skill within itself.

The current top active guy is Toyohibiki who from 2011.01 until now stayed in Makuuchi without ever going higher than M2. I don't know who is the next guy after him. (it might be Kaisei)

Kaisei is another interesting example. He's quickly approaching the 27-29 basho mark, but hasn't made it to sanyaku yet. But seeing as he's still usually doing pretty well at the joi level, he'll most likely manage to get to sanyaku at some point, just a bit later.

[Asashosakari 20,301]

I'm not so sure about consecutive years but it seems like those with more than 27~29 basho in makuuchi make it to sanyaku, and those with less are more likely to not make it. A lot of rikishi below this mark that did make it to sanyaku seemed to have been helped considerably by the 2011 scandal.

Which rikishi were you thinking of here? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you were getting at, but considering that almost nobody who was dismissed in 2011 was anywhere near sanyaku, I find it hard to believe that anybody was helped getting there by the dismissals. Edited July 27, 2015 by Asashosakari

[ScottyJoyJrBebe 97]

My best hunch:

Y1E Hakuho (y1e 14-1)

Y1W Kakuryu (y2e 12-3)

Y2E Harumafuji (y1w 1-1-13)

O1E Terunofuji (o2w 11-4)

O1W Kisenosato (o1e 10-5)

O2E Goeido (o1w 9-6)

O2W Kotoshogiku (o2e 8-7)

SE Tochiozan (se 10-5)

SW Myogiryu (kw 8-7)

KE Okinoumi (m5e 11-4)

KW Tochinoshin (m1e 8-7)

M1E Yoshikaze (m8e 12-3)

M1W Aoiyama (m2w 8-7)

M2E Osunaarashi (m8w 11-4 - new career high)

M2W Sadanofuji (m9e 10-5 - new career high)

M3E Sadanoumi (m1w 6-9)

M3W Takayasu (m2e 6-9)

M4E Tamawashi (m7e 8-7 - banzuke luck)

M4W Ichinojo (sw 4-11)

M5E Kaisei (m3w 6-9)

M5W Takarafuji (ke 4-11)

M6E Aminishiki (m4e 6-9)

M6W Endo (m12e 10-5)

Ichinojo at M4 should be just the thing to let him rebound and regain his momentum. All things considered, he should be able to get that elusive double digit win tally for Aki, and find himself back in Sanyaku. Figuring he will be facing about 4-5 sanyaku at M4, I'd say the odds are nicely in his favor.

It's easy to cheer for someone when there moving forward, its when they slide back that you really see how much you like them.

GO ICHINOJO!

[Sumozumo 240]

I'm not so sure about consecutive years but it seems like those with more than 27~29 basho in makuuchi make it to sanyaku, and those with less are more likely to not make it. A lot of rikishi below this mark that did make it to sanyaku seemed to have been helped considerably by the 2011 scandal.

Which rikishi were you thinking of here? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you were getting at, but considering that almost nobody who was dismissed in 2011 was anywhere near sanyaku, I find it hard to believe that anybody was helped getting there by the dismissals.

Yes, but you don't have to beat any sanyaku to become sanyaku. After everyone was flushed out the bottom part of makuuchi wasn't really the same level and it was a lot easier to pole vault into sanyaku with 11-12 wins from there. Then it took a few years for guys to cycle in to refresh things back to normal. I would say Wakakoyu would have never even come close without it and that it made it much much easier for Homasho and Gagamaru.

[Gurowake 4,154]

The Isegahama schedule got quite a bit easier for Aki; the only two left in the joi are Harumafuji and Terunofuji. At the same time, it's likely we'll have 4 from Sakaigawa: Goeido, Myogiryu, Sadanoumi, Sadanofuji (although -fuji will likely be ranked higher than -umi). Goeido is going to get the same sort of "easy" schedule Harumafuji used to get, although he might prefer one of those two maegashira from his stable over Ichinojo, who might be in his top 15 but not so for most joi members.

[Asashosakari 20,301]

Yes, but you don't have to beat any sanyaku to become sanyaku. After everyone was flushed out the bottom part of makuuchi wasn't really the same level and it was a lot easier to pole vault into sanyaku with 11-12 wins from there. Then it took a few years for guys to cycle in to refresh things back to normal. I would say Wakakoyu would have never even come close without it and that it made it much much easier for Homasho and Gagamaru.

IMHO you're reading too much into very limited data. Lower-mid maegashira fluking very big records happens all the time. Just in the three basho before the scandal we had Yoshikaze going 11-4 (first double-digits in two years), Takekaze going 12-3 (first double-digits in almost three years), Toyonoshima going 14-1 (!), and Okinoumi going 11-4 (hadn't been better than 8-7 in any of his previous three makuuchi basho).

That Wakakoyu and Gagamaru happened to get a sanyaku promotion out of it and those guys didn't was just a lucky confluence of their banzuke position, plus unusually weird joijin results, and those definitely didn't have anything to do with the dismissals. (Case in point, Homasho didn't actually go to sanyaku from down low, he needed to add a 10-5 record from M1e.)

Edit: I'd also add that you're selling Wakakoyu short. I'll freely admit I still have no idea how it happened, but for about two years from mid-2010 to mid-2012 the guy looked really good, much better than before or after - basically, he was Toyohibiki without the propensity for unnecessary losses at the edge. (Maybe he just worked very hard after his 2010 gambling suspension.) And I'd say if the actual Toyohibiki could avoid those losses, he'd have fluked a sanyaku promotion by now, too.

---

Also, there's often a very thin margin between fluking a one-time sanyaku promotion and never doing so. My favourite example remains Tokitsuumi who started Nagoya 2003, his 30th makuuchi tournament, 6-0 from M7e and looked great to finally make it to sanyaku. Unfortunately that was a really weird basho in which both yokozuna lost a lot and ultimately went kyujo, and the ozeki weren't all that great during the first week, so that 6-0 put him in the sole lead. Three days later he was down to 7-2, but that was still good enough for the shared lead...together with the weakest ozeki of the time (Musoyama), and three other maegashira. So the schedulers had no choice but to throw him to the wolves, he finished only 9-6 after facing all four ozeki in week two, and never did get promoted to sanyaku.

Edited July 28, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,154]

It sounds like Wakanosato isn't going to retire before the banzuke is made, and really there's not much reason why he would; the extra spot in Makushita isn't particularly relevant compared to the extra spot in Juryo freed up by 'Tenho retiring immediately. As mentioned elsewhere, he will presumably participate in the upcoming jungyo that swings by where he's from as his last hurrah.

So Makushita joi speculation:

Even if 'Tenho hadn't retired, there would be plenty of room in most places for everyone, and some people are going to get a bit of a lucky boost due to a gaping hole starting around Ms13. Only thing that stands out in terms of bad luck is Hakuyozan only one rank above someone that started two ranks below him and had the same record, but that's pretty minor compared to the crowding from the last few basho.

Dewahayate(4-3 Ms4w)	Ms1	Asabenkei(4-3 Ms5e)
Azumaryu(4-3 Ms5w)	Ms2	Kotoeko(6-1 Ms14e)
Kisenoyama(5-2 Ms7w)	Ms3	Daido(4-11 J11e)
Takaryu(5-10 J13w)	Ms4	Wakanosato(4-11 J11w)
Daishoho(5-2 Ms9e)	Ms5	Abiko(3-4 Ms2w)
Aozora(4-3 Ms9w)	Ms6	Sakigake(3-4 Ms3e)
Gochozan(6-1 Ms21e)	Ms7	Sasanoyama(6-1 Ms22w)
Kairyu(5-2 Ms16w)	Ms8	Yamatofuji(4-3 Ms13e)
Tochimaru(5-2 Ms18e)	Ms9	Hokaho(5-2 Ms18w)
Chiyonokuni(4-3 Ms14w)	Ms10	Higonojo(4-3 Ms15e)
Suzaku(5-2 Ms20w)	Ms11	Chiyoshoma(4-3 Ms15w)
Hakuyozan(3-4 Ms6w)	Ms12	Ryuonami(6-1 Ms30w)
Hamaguchi(3-4 Ms8w)	Ms13	Hishofuji(7-0 Sd20w)
Higoarashi(3-4 Ms10w)	Ms14	Shiba(4-3 Ms21w)
Akua(2-5 Ms6e)	Ms15	Sotairyu(3-4 Ms11w)

If for some reason they leave off Wakanosato anyway, just move everyone else up and add Masunosho(5-2 Ms29w).

[inhashi 2,363]

Looks like Daishomaru, Kizenryu, and Kyokutenho's tsukebito Kyokutaisei have all been bumped back up to Juryo for promotion.

...and Shodai making his Juryo debut.

Nikkan Sports

Edit: good call Gurowake ;-)

Edited July 29, 2015 by inhashi

[Kasutera 258]

Yay for Kyokutaisei!!!

[Masumasumasu 902]

AB squared to the ninth power cubed minus the derivative of the net ratio analytic factor recumbent upon entropic infinity times a thousand equals Kyokutaisei being promoted to Juryo.