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From as best as I can tell doing research starting from the Wikipedia list of Makuuchi speedruns from Maezumo, the previous record for rise to san'yaku from Maezumo was 14 basho, held by Kotooshu, Konishiki, and Asashoryu.  Aonishiki is (presumably) going to get there in 11.

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Posted (edited)

This was the first basho since 1978.07 with every Makuuchi rikishi getting at least four wins.

If it wasn't for Wakanosho's kyujo, it might have even gone back to 1975.11 including Juryo. These three were the only such basho in the post-war era.

Edited by Jakusotsu
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Why do head to head matchups of Juryo .vs. Makushita rikishi tend to strongly favor the Makushita rikishi?

Juryo vs Makushita since year 2000: 803-935

Inidividual yearly record in spoiler

2025*: 20-17
2024: 26-37
2023: 37-38
2022: 29-31
2021: 28-30
2020: 18-24
2019: 33-28
2018: 28-34
2017: 24-30
2016: 25-28
2015: 29-39
2014: 26-32
2013: 37-30
2012: 34-33
2011: 34-45
2010: 32-29
2009: 31-41
2008: 30-34
2007: 36-40
2006: 31-30
2005: 29-40
2004: 22-36
2003: 34-53
2002: 56-49
2001: 38-49
2000: 36-58

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Posted (edited)

I don't know if I would call 46.2% vs 53.8% strongly favoured. In any case, it's largely carried by actual exchange bouts on the final three days, which almost entirely feature makushita rikishi who have done well versus juryo rikishi who have not done well. From Day 1 to 12 the head-to-heads are 524-579 (47.8% - 52.2%), on Days 13 to 15 they're 279-356 (43.9% - 56.1%).


Edit: Also, the makushita advantage in the Day 1-12 bouts has outright evaporated in recent years.

 

2025: 15-9
2024: 19-17
2023: 30-23
2022: 17-16
2021: 17-14
2020: 16-13
2019: 26-21
2018: 19-24
2017: 14-17
2016: 19-17
2015: 19-28
2014: 17-22
2013: 25-17
2012: 24-21
2011: 22-26
2010: 12-11
2009: 16-27
2008: 14-24
2007: 18-27
2006: 15-17
2005: 18-26
2004: 11-17
2003: 24-36
2002: 37-36
2001: 30-32
2000: 30-41

I think that can be taken as potential evidence that their recent strictness in exchanging rikishi between makushita and juryo may have some justification to it, in that it is putting fewer makushita-strength rikishi into juryo spots through sheer luck and fewer juryo-strength rikishi into makushita.

(And a less charitable explanation especially for the pre-2011 numbers would be that there may have been sizable amounts of juryo rikishi who held their ranks through yaocho, and their relative lack of ability was exposed when fighting makushita opponents who had no reason to throw the bouts.)

Makushita rikishi still lead the Day 13-15 totals for the years 2019-2025:

 

2025: 5-8
2024: 7-20
2023: 7-15
2022: 12-15
2021: 11-16
2020: 2-11
2019: 7-7

Edited by Asashosakari
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Posted (edited)

Breaking it down by day. Interesting pattern. Not sure it's just a day 1-12 vs 13-15 divide. That is interesting with the recent change. I noticed that in Makuuchi vs Juryo bouts also, with Makuuchi faring better starting ~ the same time.

 

image.png.09af8508efd44118d7c168e4748ed6b8.png

Edited by Wakawakawaka

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Posted (edited)

Another thing that may be having an impact - but which will be tough to conclusively isolate because the individual numbers of matchups are getting very small at that level of granularity - is an increased focus on making the pairings "by formula" from Day 1 to 12. The last basho was a good example of that:

Basho Day Rikishi 1   Kimarite   Rikishi 2
Rank Shikona Result Rank Shikona Result
2025.05 1 Ms1e Kitanowaka 0-1 (3-4) hoshi_kuro.gif oshidashi hoshi_shiro.gif J14w Mudoho 1-0 (5-10)
2025.05 2 Ms1w Akua 1-1 (2-5) hoshi_kuro.gif hikiotoshi hoshi_shiro.gif J14e Mita 2-0 (8-5-2)
2025.05 3 Ms2e Oshoryu 0-2 (2-5) hoshi_kuro.gif yorikiri hoshi_shiro.gif J13w Daiamami 1-2 (7-8)
2025.05 6 Ms2w Dewanoryu 1-3 (3-4) hoshi_kuro.gif yorikiri hoshi_shiro.gif J13e Miyanokaze 2-4 (6-9)
2025.05 7 Ms3e Otsuji 4-0 (7-0) hoshi_shiro.gif oshidashi hoshi_kuro.gif J12w Nabatame 5-2 (8-7)
2025.05 8 Ms4e Ishizaki 3-2 (4-3) hoshi_kuro.gif kotenage hoshi_shiro.gif J12e Mitoryu 4-4 (8-7)
2025.05 9 Ms4w Kotokuzan 3-2 (5-2) hoshi_kuro.gif okuridashi hoshi_shiro.gif J11e Kazekeno 6-3 (9-6)
2025.05 10 Ms5e Kyokukaiyu 4-2 (5-2) hoshi_shiro.gif yorikiri hoshi_kuro.gif J14w Mudoho 5-5 (5-10)
2025.05 11 Ms1e Kitanowaka 3-3 (3-4) hoshi_shiro.gif hikiotoshi hoshi_kuro.gif J14e Mita 7-4 (8-5-2)
2025.05 12 Ms2w Dewanoryu 3-4 hoshi_kuro.gif yorikiri hoshi_shiro.gif J13w Daiamami 6-6 (7-8)

The only skips were Ms3w on Day 8 (Hokutofuji kyujo/intai), Ms5w on Day 11 (Tochimusashi already MK at 1-4), and then Ms1w and Ms2e on Day 12 (Akua and Oshoryu also already MK), and on the juryo side J11w on Day 9 (Wakanosho kyujo by then). Other than that, strict pairings in order down to Ms5 and up to J11, and then just starting over again. That's a pretty common sight these days. (Although the Day 12 pairing may well have been just a coincidence as that was also a proper exchange-style matchup between Dewanoryu and Daiamami.)

Before the last few years, they seemed to be using more discretion in selecting the rikishi on both sides, and some anecdotal evidence would be that the only cases of 0-3 Ms rikishi appearing in juryo on Day 7 were relatively recently, as were the only cases of 7-3 juryo rikishi being selected on Day 11. (And the 6-4's only go back to 2016, too.) Basically, the past approach was more geared towards treating all the pairings as "exchange bouts" between underperforming juryo rikishi and at least average performing makushita guys. Right now, the only exclusion rules being respected seem to be that the Ms rikishi can't be MK yet and the juryo rikishi not KK. That should be leading to matchups that are more favourable to the juryo side on average.

Edited by Asashosakari
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In 2009, Hakuho went 14-1 four times, only one of which was a yusho! He finished his career with four 14-1 basho in which he did not take the title, something that's only happened a total of 33 times in the six-basho era.

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We've had 32 basho since the start of 2020. 93 rikishi have appeared on the Makuuchi banzuke during this time, but only six have been there for all 32. Any guesses before you click?

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14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

We've had 32 basho since the start of 2020. 93 rikishi have appeared on the Makuuchi banzuke during this time, but only six have been there for all 32. Any guesses before you click?

With an initial short list of 7, I got 5. I considered Meisei but then I remembered that big juryo playoff that featured him and two other Tatsunami guys, which seemed too recent an event. That still left one mistake, namely Tobizaru instead of Kirishima...mistaken assumptions about which guy had come up when, I just remembered correctly that neither had been demoted since then.

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Two of the six drop out if you expand the window to 2019-now, the remaining quartet is still there in 2018, one drops off in 2017, the trio is all there in 2016 (that's 56 consecutive basho!) and then we're down to the top two, one of whom has been in the top division for 71 consecutive basho, the other for a whopping 83 since debut.

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On 16/06/2025 at 09:03, Asashosakari said:

With an initial short list of 7, I got 5. I considered Meisei but then I remembered that big juryo playoff that featured him and two other Tatsunami guys, which seemed too recent an event. That still left one mistake, namely Tobizaru instead of Kirishima...mistaken assumptions about which guy had come up when, I just remembered correctly that neither had been demoted since then.

Am I the only one seeing that all the hyperlinks in this post are cencored with black bars? Is it due to the blacklisting thing?

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1 hour ago, Chiyotasuke said:

Am I the only one seeing that all the hyperlinks in this post are cencored with black bars? Is it due to the blacklisting thing?

I think it's to give people an opportunity to guess themselves. ;-)

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Fun experiment I thought I'd try; call it the 'rare kimarite index'. Take each rikishi's wins, divide it by how often the kimarite occurs, do that for each kimarite, then average it out.

For example, if a rikishi won all 100 of their matches by Yorikiri, and in all of Ozumo yorikiri accounts for 25% of wins: 100 (number of yorikiri wins) / 0.25 (average occurance of yorikiri) / 100 (total number of rikishi's wins): RKI = 4.

The results for the most part I think align with intuition.

image.png.b157fb14fcf94cc18fa31744a85ee05f.png

 

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Curious to see some names far up (e.g. Shonannoumi, Takayasu) and some far down (e.g. Tokihayate). It also implies that Aonishiki is more "skilled" than fellow rookie Onokatsu.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Curious to see some names far up (e.g. Shonannoumi, Takayasu) and some far down (e.g. Tokihayate). It also implies that Aonishiki is more "skilled" than fellow rookie Onokatsu.

Yeah Shonannoumi was probably the biggest surprise near the top. Takayasu is a crafty vet that can do a bit of everything, so I'm not shocked by that. Onokatsu has a whopping 67.9% of his wins by yorikiri, that's why he's down there.

Also just for fun: The nephew leads the uncle by a whopping 2 points lol.

Any rikishi in lower divisions or the past that come to mind for curiosity? I wonder who has the highest of all? Can anyone beat Ura?

EDIT: Nvm, the other Tzutaezori king Asakiryu down in Sandanme: RKI = 835.

Edited by Wakawakawaka
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Any rikishi in lower divisions or the past that come to mind for curiosity? I wonder who has the highest of all? Can anyone beat Ura?

Kyokushuzan had been dubbed "the department store of kimarite", and Mainoumi might score high as well.

Edit: Akua's knack for kakenage could also be contributing.

Edited by Jakusotsu
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1 minute ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Kyokushuzan: 567 

Wow. Looks like we have a winner.

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Posted (edited)

Couple random things while I was digging that caught my eye.

Sadanoyama: Natsu 1961 - Lost to a Juryo rikishi, but won the Makuuchi yusho.

Takatoriki: Haru 2000 - Faced a Juryo rikishi and 2 Yokozuna in the same basho.

EDIT: Another random tidbit

The last time a Yokozuna entered a basho in which he faced a Maegashira, and did not give up a kinboshi, was Kyushu 2021, when Terunofuji got his zensho.

Edited by Wakawakawaka
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On 19/05/2025 at 16:52, Tigerboy1966 said:
On 14/05/2025 at 22:58, Reonito said:

This is Hidenoumi's 50th Juryo basho, which ties him for 6th all-time. He needs 6 more basho in the second division for sole position of first plac

Now watch him spoil it by getting promoted. Juryo wouldn't be juryo without Hidenoumi.

Hidenoumi obviously follows my comments closely and was motivated by my patronising tone.

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On 13/05/2025 at 08:56, Tigerboy1966 said:

I think this may have been mentioned before but...

Sadanoumi extends his record. 57 basho as a maegashira without ever making it to sanyaku.

Next on the list are Higonoumi (53),  Asanowaka (52), Toyohibiki (52), Kotoryu (51) and Tokitsuumi (50)

58 and counting for Sadanoumi.

Kagayaki is next among active wrestlers on 43, but I fear his maku'uchi days are over.

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With Hidenoumi and Kotoeiho promoted, we'll now have three pairs of brothers in Makuuchi. I'm still somewhat new-ish compared to the veterans here, so I have no idea whether this has happened before, but I found it remarkable.

Since I'm partial to Kumamoto-shusshin rikishi, I noticed that there are now also three of them in Makuuchi. Shodai and Kusano have some similarities beyond that: They were born 10 years apart (1991 and 2001, respectively), both come from Uto south of Kumamoto city, both compete under their real name and share the first name Naoya (although the second kanji is different). They also both won two yusho in their first 7 tournaments, although in different divisions.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Tsurukame said:

With Hidenoumi and Kotoeiho promoted, we'll now have three pairs of brothers in Makuuchi. I'm still somewhat new-ish compared to the veterans here, so I have no idea whether this has happened before, but I found it remarkable.

Yes, it has already happened at least once. At Kyushu 2006, with Aminishiki and Asofuji, Roho and Hakurozan, and Toyozakura and Kitazakura. Going back until the 80s, I couldn't find any more cases, but I didn't search that thoroughly.

Edit: According to Asofuji's wiki (both in English and Japanese), that was the first time. Don't know why it didn't occur to me to look there right away. After realizing Asofuji's promotion to Makuuchi was what lead to that situation back then, that would be the logical next step.

Edited by Karusoni
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Posted (edited)
On 18/05/2025 at 11:44, Asashosakari said:

Losing to Oshoma today, Midorifuji became the 34th 33rd rikishi in the 15-bout era (since 1949) to have started both 8-0 and 0-8 in top division tournaments. Reference: Query, everybody in there whose listed result is neither x-0 nor 0-x (except Ouchiyama and Futeno whose MK wasn't a real 0-8 but rather 0-1-7 and 0-4-4 after joining a basho in progress). 

The other active rikishi with that feat are Takayasu and Daieisho.


Late edit: Arguably Chiyotaikai should also be excluded, his sole 0-8 was with a fusenpai at the end.

It already spurred further discussion during the basho, but just to round this up: Midorifuji lost his Day 9 match as well and became the 12th rikishi to have both 9-0 and 0-9 starts in makuuchi (query, minus Fukunohana and Konishiki), and by winning on Day 10 he avoided becoming the fourth rikishi with 10-0 and 0-10 starts (query, again minus Konishiki).

For posterity, the three guys who made it to 10 both ways, so you don't have to extract them from that last query yourself:

  • Tochinishiki 0-10 (final score 4-11) in Natsu 1949, before the future yokozuna had reached sanyaku. He later had eight 10-0 (and better) starts.
  • Homasho 0-14 (final score 1-14) in Natsu 2009, then 10-0 (final score 11-4) in Nagoya 2010.
  • Tochinoshin 0-10 (final score 2-13) in Natsu 2013, back in his younger days when he had consistently dreadful results against sanyaku-quality rikishi, then 12-0 (final score 13-2) in Natsu 2018 to complete his ozeki run.

As you can see, nobody has made 11-0 / 0-11 runs yet.
 

That said, I was tipped off elsewhere yesterday that Midorifuji ended up doing something else that's perhaps even more unusual because his all-losses 0-9 start gave way to an all-wins 6-9 finish. He had done the same thing the other way around when 10-0 turned into 10-5 two years ago. It turns out that he's one of just 11 rikishi who had such "two-part records" both ways in the 15-bout era, and all the others are much more trivial. (Note: For this, I expanded my coverage to both makuuchi and juryo.)

The only other rikishi for whom all involved streaks were at least 3 bouts long was 1960s sekitori regular Hanahikari, who spent three years in juryo followed by four in makuuchi. In his juryo days, he first went from 5-0 to 5-10, and then from 0-3 to 12-3 - in the very next basho.

And now the truly trivial double-double streaks. These were done almost entirely by yokozuna (although sometimes before they got there), with one notable exception by a rikishi who was already mentioned earlier. Sorted by their Sumo DB ID numbers for no reason other than that's what my working spreadsheet has at the moment:

Edited by Asashosakari
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Posted (edited)

This probably was noted at the time, but I was looking something up and noticed that Hakuho had more zensho-yusho (16) than the entire yusho total of all but 5 other Yokozuna.

Edited by Reonito
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