Gurowake

Trivia bits

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4 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I see these were more innocent times.

When Hakuho took 2/3 of the yusho and Harumafuji most of the rest, the idea of someone different winning each yusho in a calendar year was laughable.

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The more amazing thing IMO is that we have 4 different yūshō winners this year but all of them were YO or soon to be O. It hasn't been the random motley crew of maegashira who wilted the next basho that we've had for the last couple years. 

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14 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

It hasn't been the random motley crew of maegashira who wilted the next basho that we've had for the last couple years. 

In fact, Ozumo is getting more and more efficient; now the Maegashira wilt in the same basho.:-)

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Provided at least two of them participate, Aki 2023 will be the first time in a year where we have an ōzeki v ōzeki bout in a honbasho. The last one was in Aki 2022 with Takakeishō v Shōdai.

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On 02/08/2023 at 06:13, Seiyashi said:

Provided at least two of them participate, Aki 2023 will be the first time in a year where we have an ōzeki v ōzeki bout in a honbasho. The last one was in Aki 2022 with Takakeishō v Shōdai.

The last Yokozuna vs. Yokozuna bout as of today was Hakuho vs Kakuryu in March 2020.

Edited by Gurowake
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1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

The last Yokozuna vs. Yokozuna bout as of today was Hakuho vs Kakuryu in March 2020.

Is it the longest streak of this kind? I'm too bad at queries to check. 

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30 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Is it the longest streak of this kind? I'm too bad at queries to check. 

Here's the query you can look through.  If no one else has done it by the time I get home, I'll use Excel to check for the largest gaps.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=5&rank1=y&rank2=y

Edited by Gurowake
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Earliest possible Y v Y could be in January. If one of the Ozeki wins the remaining Basho this year.

With winning the Basho I don't mean necessarily Yusho, if J or D is enough.

So Terunofuji could be a Yokozuna who doesn't have a Y v Y match at all... now that should be rare...

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12 minutes ago, Barutokai said:

So Terunofuji could be a Yokozuna who doesn't have a Y v Y match at all... now that should be rare...

It happened quite often in the 19th century when there was only one Yokozuna in existence. Teru would be the first in the modern era, I think. 

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3 hours ago, Barutokai said:

Earliest possible Y v Y could be in January. If one of the Ozeki wins the remaining Basho this year.

With winning the Basho I don't mean necessarily Yusho, if J or D is enough.

So Terunofuji could be a Yokozuna who doesn't have a Y v Y match at all... now that should be rare...

I don't see any of the current Ozeki being promoted without either Y-Y or at minimum D-Y or Y-D. Anything else will not be enough. And I honestly can't see any of the current Ozeki being able to pull that off at this point...

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3 hours ago, Ripe said:

I don't see any of the current Ozeki being promoted without either Y-Y or at minimum D-Y or Y-D. Anything else will not be enough. And I honestly can't see any of the current Ozeki being able to pull that off at this point...

Really? What if Terunofuji is done and Takakeisho also continues to struggle? Someone has to win the yusho, and Hoshoryu and Kirishima would seem to have a better chance than anyone else at present.

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1 hour ago, Shikona said:

Really? What if Terunofuji is done and Takakeisho also continues to struggle? Someone has to win the yusho, and Hoshoryu and Kirishima would seem to have a better chance than anyone else at present.

Last year, it resulted in some random maegashira winning the yusho.

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15 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Last year, it resulted in some random maegashira winning the yusho.

And this year?

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6 minutes ago, Shikona said:

And this year?

So, we should expect Kirishima or Hoshoryu to win every yusho when Terunofuji and/or Takakeisho are injured? 

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2 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

So, we should expect Kirishima or Hoshoryu to win every yusho when Terunofuji and/or Takakeisho are injured? 

Yes we should expect, they are Ozeki, its their job, if they accomplish it , would we consider them Great Ozeki or just doing their job?

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18 hours ago, Shikona said:

Really? What if Terunofuji is done and Takakeisho also continues to struggle? Someone has to win the yusho, and Hoshoryu and Kirishima would seem to have a better chance than anyone else at present.

You do realize that in last 5 years the only rikishi who manage to won back-to-back yusho was Terunofuji who did it twice during his rise to Yokozuna (he won 4 out of 5, with remaining basho being 14-1 behind Hakuho's 15-0)? That almost 25% of all yusho won by Maegashira in history came within last 5 years? That same is true about yusho won by Sekiwake? None of those serve as giving me confidence that any of the current Ozeki can sustain a high performance level required for promotion to Yokozuna... and while Hoshoryu (and maybe Kirishima, depending on his injury) might have a decent chance at doing it, I really don't see it happening.

 

32 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

So, we should expect Kirishima or Hoshoryu to win every yusho when Terunofuji and/or Takakeisho are injured? 

Well, that is what they are supposed to do... win yusho in absence of Yokozuna and serve as a barrier for lower sanyaku and especially maegashira ranked rikishi. Which is something Ozeki's over last 5 years failed to do at almost spectacular level.

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8 hours ago, Ripe said:

That almost 25% of all yusho won by Maegashira in history came within last 5 years?

This is fairly interesting trivia, though. I know we had a rash of maegashira yūshō but I didn't know it was this bad.

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4 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Back to topic, please!

Back to what, everything is trivia?

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10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

This is fairly interesting trivia, though. I know we had a rash of maegashira yūshō but I didn't know it was this bad.

Yup, there was 36 total yusho won by Maegashira and 8 of those came since 2018 (Tochinoshin, Asanoyama, Tokushoryu, Terunofuji, Daieisho, Ichinojo, Tamawashi and Abi). For comparison, between 2000 and 2018 there were only 3 such cases (Takatoriki in 2000, Komitsuki in 2001 and Kyokutenho in 2012).

And it's pretty much the same with Sekiwake:  9 out of 34 total basho won by sekiwake was won in since 2018 (Mitakeumi three times, Tamawashi, Shodai, Terunofuji, Wakatakakage, Kirishima and Hoshoryu) while there were only 2 such cases between 2000 and 2018 (Musoyama in 2000 and Terunofuji in 2015). Considering that this list contains five future Ozeki (one of whom made it to Yokozuna) it's not as bad statistic as the Maegashira one.

Edited by Ripe
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2 hours ago, Ripe said:

Tochinoshin, Asanoyama, Tokushoryu, Terunofuji, Daieisho, Ichinojo, Tamawashi and Abi

Tochinoshin, Asanoyama, and Terunofuji went on to become (at least) Ozeki, which makes it look a bit less bad; on the other hand, the last three rikishi on the list are unlikely to ever go that far (impossible for Ichinoji, obviously). 

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5 hours ago, Ripe said:

Yup, there was 36 total yusho won by Maegashira and 8 of those came since 2018 (Tochinoshin, Asanoyama, Tokushoryu, Terunofuji, Daieisho, Ichinojo, Tamawashi and Abi). For comparison, between 2000 and 2018 there were only 3 such cases (Takatoriki in 2000, Komitsuki in 2001 and Kyokutenho in 2012).

And it's pretty much the same with Sekiwake:  9 out of 34 total basho won by sekiwake was won in since 2018 (Mitakeumi three times, Tamawashi, Shodai, Terunofuji, Wakatakakage, Kirishima and Hoshoryu) while there were only 2 such cases between 2000 and 2018 (Musoyama in 2000 and Terunofuji in 2015). Considering that this list contains five future Ozeki (one of whom made it to Yokozuna) it's not as bad statistic as the Maegashira one.

3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Tochinoshin, Asanoyama, and Terunofuji went on to become (at least) Ozeki, which makes it look a bit less bad; on the other hand, the last three rikishi on the list are unlikely to ever go that far (impossible for Ichinoji, obviously). 

Notwithstanding, the situation remains highly anomalous. I looked into the distribution of non-Y/O yusho since 1958 when the six-basho era began, and such a long, uninterrupted strike of Maegashira yusho is nowhere to be seen in modern sumo history. In general, similar strikes are more or less physiological anytime a "passage of the torch" period occurs. A first episode spanned in 1960-61 (just before the Taiho dominance), with two Maegashira yusho (Wakamisugi and Sadanoyama - the latter a future Yokozuna) and a Sekiwake yusho (Taiho). A much worse event occurred with Taiho's intai in 1971 and Tamanoumi's untimely death shortly thereafter, which with almost one stroke removed two powerful Yokozuna and traumatized the one left in (Kitanofuji). 1972 was rather wild, with two Maegashira yusho (Tochiazuma, Takamiyama) and two Sekiwake yusho (Hasegawa, Wajima). Things, however, went back to normal soon after. For some reason, 1975-76 was again a blank moment despite it fit right in the middle of the Wajima-Kitanoumi era, with two Maegashira yusho in little more than one year (Kongo, Kaiketsu) and one Sekiwake yusho in the middle (Mienoumi). Of course, a major conundrum coincided with 1991-92, as the older generation of Yokozuna retired in good order, and for the first time in the modern era the white rope was up for grabs. Four Maegashira yusho (Kotofuji, Kotonishiki, Takahanada, Mitoizumi), one Komusubi yusho (Takahanada again, damn the kid), and one Sekiwake yusho (Akebono). But in the end things went in place once again. A last moment of panic can be found over a relatively long period spanning 1998-2001, which coincides with the last swansong of Takanohana and Akebono and can easily paralleled with the pattern to be found throughout 2018-2021. Three Maegashira yusho over four years (Kotonishiki - yep, the same guy from 1991 -, Takatokiri, Kotomitsuki), one Komusubi yusho (Kaio), and three Sekiwake yusho (Chiyotaikai, Dejima, Musoyama). In this particular situation we can envisage at a same time a "change of the guard" (Kotomitsuki, Kaio, Chiyotaikai, Dejima, Musoyama) but also an inability from the reigning Y/O to face the new wave.

The present 2018-2023 "Long Farewell" event is at a same time the end of the Hakuho & Co. era (2018-2021), and its passage onto what substantially is Terunofuji's own farewell event after a dominant 2021. COVID certainly played a role in 2020-2022 (Asanoyama's suspension, allegedly Mitakeumi's and Shodai's "long COVID" issues, Ichinojo's crazy yusho in what turned from a basho onto a music chair performance), but there are absolutely other issues. One is clearly a proliferation of 12-3 yusho, when in the good 'ole times even Tokushoryu had to hit 14-1 to win his. What can that be, long COVID for everyone? Whether the reason, there is a stunning weakness among the upper ranks. Well, perhaps not right now anymore, since we had the Sekiwake as virtually the top guys for most of 2023. Now we can hopefully get two nice Ozeki. Only time will tell.

Sorry if I went somewhat off-topic for a trivia, but it must also be noticed how un-trivia is this period. That's almost too weird to be true.

Edited by Hankegami
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2018-now:   12 yusho for Yokozuna, 3 for Ozeki, 18 for everyone else. 

2012-2017: 27 yusho for Yokozuna, 7 for Ozeki, 2 for everyone else.

No chi-squared test needed to show we are in unusual times.

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